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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs return to action on Sunday for Game 2 of the National League Championship Series with a stellar pitching matchup featuring Clayton Kershaw against Kyle Hendricks. 

Kershaw has been a true horse for the Dodgers so far in the postseason, pitching three times against the Washington Nationals in the division series. 

The Cubs got back to work on Saturday night in front of a raucous Wrigley Field crowd hoping to see the franchise make its first World Series appearance since 1945. 

Dodgers Key to Game 2: Ride the Horse

The narrative around Kershaw in October has been one of failure in the past, though his postseason resume doesn’t jive with that convenient story. He’s had bad games that have ballooned his ERA, sure, but virtually every other stat looks like what you’d expect from the best pitcher in baseball. 

Kershaw has already given the Dodgers everything they could possibly hope for this postseason. He threw a total of 211 pitches in two starts against the Nationals on just three days of rest, then came in for a two-out save in the decisive Game 5 with one day of rest. 

The good news for the Dodgers is Kershaw will essentially be starting this game on regular rest. He only needed seven pitches to close out the game on Thursday, which basically equates to a light bullpen day. 

Even though Kershaw‘s injured back during the regular season likely cost him a shot at the Cy Young Award, it may have indirectly been beneficial for the Dodgers in the postseason. He was only able to make 21 starts covering 149 innings in the regular season. 

In those previous years when Kershaw has struggled in the postseason—most notably 2013 and 2014 against the St. Louis Cardinals—he made a combined 60 starts covering 434.1 innings. It’s hardly a surprise that he hit a wall by mid-October. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, there was one common denominator in the Dodgers’ three victories against the Nationals:

The Dodgers pitching staff is a mess right now. Kershaw is the one sure thing. Rich Hill is an effective starter, but continuing to start him on short rest with his long injury history is asking for trouble. Everything behind those two is essentially manager Dave Roberts praying for four solid innings. 

It’s a formula similar to what the Cleveland Indians are working with, except Roberts doesn’t have the bullpen depth Terry Francona has to play with. Closer Kenley Jansen is brilliant, but the gap to get from starter to him has been a problem in the playoffs. 

For instance, Kershaw was charged with five runs in Los Angeles’ Game 4 win over the Nationals. He left the game with a 5-2 lead and the bases loaded before Pedro Baez and Luis Avilan allowed those three runs to score and tie the game.

Ultimately, the Dodgers will have to keep using Kershaw as much as possible if they want to shut down a Cubs team that led all of Major League Baseball with 103 wins during the regular season and features a relentless offensive attack that can strike at any time. 

Cubs Key to Game 2: Patience is a Virtue

There are really no weaknesses to the Cubs in 2016. They finished in the top three in runs scored, OPS, ERA, shutouts, opponent batting average, opponent OPS and WHIP. 

Per Sam Miller of ESPN.com, this year’s Cubs have a strong claim as the best defensive team in MLB history:

The Cubs have converted 74.5 percent of balls in play into outs this year, which is what Baseball Prospectus calls Defensive Efficiency. (Rephrased: Opponents are hitting .255 on balls put in play against the Cubs.) That’s not just the best in baseball this year. Adjusted for era, it might be the greatest defensive season ever, with the gap between the Cubs and the second-best team this year topping the spread between the next best and the 27th best.

That defense is a big reason why Hendricks will at least end up in the Cy Young conversation, if not become the second straight Cubs pitcher (Jake Arrieta) to win the award. His stuff doesn’t intimidate anyone with a fastball that averages 89.7 mph, per FanGraphs.com. 

But Hendricks is able to get away with the lack of velocity because his changeup is so good and the defense is able to convert so many of the ground balls hit into outs. 

Looking at all of those factors, there really doesn’t have to be one specific key for the Cubs to win any game in this series. 

Yet going up against Kershaw, the easiest way to earn a victory is knocking him out of the game early to get into that Dodgers bullpen. 

Taking pitches against Kershaw can lead to a lot of quick outs because he pounds the strike zone so well, but the Nationals were able to make him work in his two starts against them. He needed 101 pitches to finish five innings in Game 1. 

Roberts stuck with Kershaw for 110 pitches in Game 4 because he didn’t want to use his bullpen. The Cubs faced a similar situation in the division series against the Giants. 

Matt Moore held the Cubs in check for eight innings in Game 4, leaving with a 5-2 lead and seemingly on the verge of forcing a winner-take-all fifth game. But after Moore threw 120 pitches, Giants manager Bruce Bochy turned to his shaky bullpen and the Cubs woke up with four runs for a 6-5 win. 

Jansen is a vastly superior closer to Sergio Romo, but the Dodgers relievers and setup men have not given Roberts many reasons to feel confident so far this postseason. 

The sooner the Cubs can get Kershaw out of the game, the easier their path to victory will become. 

Series Prediction

Until the Cubs show that they aren’t the best team in baseball, there is no reason to bet against them. Fans and analysts can play up curses and 108 years of history all they want, but none of that is relevant to this collection of talent.

Most teams have one or two ways, at best, you can specifically point to for why they will win a game or series. The Cubs can win games in any fashion. They can win a slugfest with their offensive talent, a bullpen game with their deep stable of relievers or a low-scoring battle between two starting pitchers. 

The Dodgers’ formula is to get at least 25 great innings out of Kershaw, which will only happen if the series goes seven games, and hope Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez hit like All-Stars. 

Prediction: Cubs in six

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The two league championships series are underway, but there is clearly a long way to go for any of the teams to clinch a spot in the World Series.

The Cleveland Indians are obviously in the best shape after their two wins over the Toronto Blue Jays, but they will have to find a way to keep it up when they go on the road. Considering the impact of the Rogers Centre in the postseason, this will not be easy.

In the National League, the Chicago Cubs got a big momentum boost when Miguel Montero hit a game-winning, pinch-hit grand slam in the eighth inning of an eventual 8-4 win. Still, this was just one win of four needed before knocking out the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

The rest of both series will be worth watching regardless of your rooting interests.

ALCS

This series was supposed to feature a lot of scoring and plenty of home runs, but that hasn’t been the case through the first two games. Instead, the Indians were able to jump out to a 2-0 lead thanks mostly to their pitching.

Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com noted just how good the pitchers have been in the postseason:

Josh Tomlin keyed a 2-1 win in Game 2 after Corey Kluber was the star in a 2-0 Game 1 victory. Of course, the bullpen has also been a major part of the success. According to Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs, Cleveland’s relievers have combined for a 1.10 ERA while allowing a .473 on-base plus slugging percentage and earning strikeouts at a 44 percent rate.

Andrew Miller has been the real star of the show so far in the ALCS, pitching 3.2 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He really mowed down the batters in Game 2:

If he and Cody Allen can keep up their strong play out of the bullpen, it will be a challenge for the Blue Jays to get any runs in this series.

Still, Toronto will not go down without a fight. Manager John Gibbons discussed the urgency down 0-2, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet:

The Blue Jays are hitting .212 as a team with zero home runs in the first two games. This came after hitting eight home runs in three games in the ALDS. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion are still getting hits, but it isn’t enough.

While the pitchers have held their end of the bargain for the most part, the offense has clearly been disappointing so far.

They now have a chance to turn things around against Trevor Bauer, who had a 4.26 ERA during the regular season and failed to get out of the fifth inning in his only postseason start. The right-hander allowed two home runs in that game and 20 during the year, which could put him in danger against Toronto.

With the crowd likely to inspire the Blue Jays players throughout the game, look for the squad to try to turn things around in Game 3 Monday.

NLCS

The big story after Game 1 was undoubtedly the big swing by Montero. The catcher came up to the plate in a 3-3 game and took an 0-2 pitch off Joe Blanton and sent it deep into the bleachers.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports didn’t mince words with his thoughts on the play:

Montero didn’t have a single hit in the NLDS while going 0-for-4, but he is now batting 1.000 in the NLCS, and that is all fans care about right now.

While the home run was clearly the biggest moment of the game, the Cubs showed a lot of ability throughout the nine innings.

Jon Lester was impressive as a starter with six innings of one-run ball. Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant and Javy Baez each had two hits. Baez even found a way to steal home for the team’s third run of the game.

Add in some incredible defense all around, and Chicago truly has all the tools necessary to keep winning. It’s not a surprise this group won 103 games during the regular season.

While there is concern over Aroldis Chapman, who suffered his second blown save of the playoffs, the 1.55 regular-season ERA and the lights-out fastball should allow Cubs fans to rest easier.

On the other hand, the Dodgers had an uphill battle in this game to start. The pitching staff was short-handed after a dramatic Game 5 win against the Washington Nationals two days earlier and still needs a little bit of time to recover.

With ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound in Game 2, Los Angeles should have plenty of confidence in its ability to even the series.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter.

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Following Saturday’s Game 1 of the NLCS at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will meet again on Sunday night for a pivotal Game 2 before the teams head west to L.A.

Both the Dodgers and the Cubs are looking to end lengthy World Series droughts, although there is likely more desperation on Chicago’s side, since the Cubs haven’t reached the World Series since 1945 and haven’t won it since 1908.

Prior to Game 2, here is all the information you need regarding how to watch the matchup, as well as a prediction for which team will come out on top.

Where: Wrigley Field in Chicago

When: Sunday, Oct. 16 at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox Sports 1

Dodgers Player to Watch: Joc Pederson

Outfielder Joc Pederson was among the Dodgers’ most potent offensive players during the NLDS against the Washington Nationals, and he came through in some clutch situations as well.

Pederson hit .333 with one home run and three RBI in L.A.’s first playoff series, but the biggest of his five hits undoubtedly came in the seventh inning of Game 5, when he tied things up with a solo shot.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, it had been 28 years since a Dodgers player last accomplished a similar feat:

Pederson tends to be a streaky player due to his propensity for striking out, but he’s made huge strides since his rookie season.

The 24-year-old hit 25 homers and set a career high with 68 RBI, but he also improved his batting average from .210 to .246 and cut down his strikeouts by 40, making him a much tougher out.

That has translated to the playoffs thus far, and it makes the Dodgers’ entire lineup far more dangerous when he is putting the ball in play.

Perhaps no player on L.A.’s entire roster is more capable of changing the complexion of a game or series with one swing of the bat, and the Dodgers may need precisely that in a tough matchup with Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks on Sunday.

Cubs Player to Watch: Kyle Hendricks

Hendricks’ NLDS start against the San Francisco Giants ended after just 3.2 innings, when he got hit in the forearm with a line drive.

The 26-year-old allowed two earned runs on four hits and didn’t appear to have his best stuff, but he still contributed heavily to Chicago’s win.

After getting just two RBI during the regular season, Hendricks drove in two runs in that game, which hadn’t been done by a pitcher in the playoffs in eight years, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

There was some concern that Hendricks would miss time, but after throwing and testing his arm out, he ruled himself “good to go,” per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago.

That was enough for manager Joe Maddon to name him the Cubs’ Game 2 starter despite having some other capable options at his disposal.

Hendricks went 16-8 and led qualified National League starters with a 2.13 ERA during the regular season. It was a true breakout campaign, but he has yet to prove he can get the job done on the big stage.

With a career ERA of 5.11 in three postseason starts, Hendricks is still searching for a gem in the games that matter most.

Continued playoff issues could lead to a huge Los Angeles win, but if Hendricks performs like he did during the regular season, the Cubs will almost certainly come away with the victory.

Game 2 Prediction

Seemingly every factor appears to be pointing in the Cubs’ favor ahead of Game 2, as they boast advantages across the board.

Chicago will play the game at home and Hendricks will pitch on extra rest. Plus the lineup is as deep as any in the league, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Javier Baez leading the way for the National League’s No. 2 regular-season scoring offense.

It’s difficult to argue against the notion that the Cubs are the best all-around team in baseball, and that should come in handy in Game 2, since it means they can beat the Dodgers in a number of different ways.

Look for strong starting pitching, timely hitting and clutch relief from closer Aroldis Chapman to carry Chicago to victory in Sunday’s NLCS clash.

Game 2 pick: Cubs win, 4-2

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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CHICAGO — Holy cow, as Harry Caray surely would have said.

Holy crap, as the Los Angeles Dodgers may as well have said late Saturday night.

The Cubs took the Dodgers’ best punch as the curtain opened on this National League Championship Series and came roaring back anyway. Easy, peasy. The Dodgers trailed, tied it and were ohsoclose to seizing Game 1 with Clayton Kershaw set to start Game 2—and wouldn’t that have been something, a real possibility of sticking the Cubs in a two-game hole heading back to Los Angeles?

And then came the freeway pileup.

“It stings a little bit, absolutely,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.

All across the postseason landscape this autumn, from Baltimore to Cleveland to Washington to Los Angeles, these playoffs have been about matchups and craziness and creativity. As the Cubs put up a five-spot in the bottom of the eighth to hang an 8-4 collar on the Dodgers in a Wrigley Field housequake on a rocking Saturday night, these two teams took even that to another level.

“Holy s–t, I almost passed out,” Cubs assistant hitting coach Eric Hinske said to nobody in particular as the coaches came clomping in from the field, through the tunnel, toward their office afterward.

“Just doing what we do,” said Javier Baez, who has moved to the top of the charts with a bullet as the Most Entertaining Player in All of Baseball these days, of teammate Miguel Montero’s pinch-hit, bottom-of-the-eighth grand slam against Dodgers reliever Joe Blanton.

“I think anybody in our lineup can change the game with one swing.”

So much happened, with so much more still to come in this series. Baez swiped home plate in the second inning, becoming the first Cub to steal home in a postseason game since 1907. Wrigley Field wouldn’t even open for another seven years after that.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon hooked starter Jon Lester after only six innings and 77 pitches, with a 3-1 lead that melted away two innings later and opened the door to all kinds of loud second-guessing. Then he summoned closer Aroldis Chapman with the heat on in the eighth inning for what was going to be another six-out save.

“It was an aggressive move by Joe,” Roberts said.

Except, it never got that far for two reasons: One, Adrian Gonzalez belted a two-out, game-tying single against Chapman; and two, Roberts ordered two intentional walks in the bottom of the eighth inning while hunting matchups—the second one loading the bases and designed to force the Cubs to pinch hit for Chapman.

They did. With Montero.

“That was strange,” Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant said of the two free passes to load the bases. “I was kind of lost there.”

“I hadn’t seen that,” Cubs catcher David Ross said. “I’ve never seen it. But he was trying to find a matchup, and that’s the cat-and-mouse game between the managers.”

Know who had seen something similar? Ben Zobrist. Big shock, that came back when he was playing for Tampa Bay and his manager was, yes, Joe Maddon. Zobrist quickly cited the time the Rays were playing the Texas Rangers back during Josh Hamilton’s MVP days and Maddon ordered Hamilton walked with the bases loaded.

So while there’s precedent for just about everything in this crazy game, still. Let’s be real. It took Zobrist a minute to come up with the Hamilton example, and in that time he said he thought even the Dodgers’ players were wondering what was going on.

He had started the trouble by greeting Blanton with a double to start the inning. Two batters later, with one out and first base open, the Dodgers elected to intentionally walk Jason Heyward, who has struggled with the bat all year, to set up a double play.

Understandable, even if it meant pitching to Baez. He flied to right, and there were two outs with Chris Coghlan approaching. That’s when the four fingers came out again from the dugout. Walking Coghlan would bring Chapman to the plate, and in a 3-3 game, that would mean lifting Chapman for a pinch hitter, which would improve the Dodgers’ chances of scoring and winning the game in the ninth inning.

But only if they could get out of the eighth.

At second base, as Blanton was throwing the four balls to Coghlan, Los Angeles’ Chase Utley engaged Zobrist in a quick conversation.

“Is Montero hurt?” Utley asked, thinking perhaps Roberts had some intelligence few others had.

Nope, Zobrist said as both players tried to think along with their managers.

Ross already has tried doing that with Maddon. But it made his head hurt too much.

“I stopped last year,” he quipped. “I didn’t know if it was me thinking along with Joe or the foul balls to the mask.”

This game, it was like a stuffed-crust pizza. The basics were delicious enough. But OK, fine, go ahead and splurge.

It even started early in the day, when Roberts decided he wanted both Howie Kendrick and Enrique Hernandez in the lineup. Hernandez wasn’t even on the Los Angeles roster in the NLDS, but he was added Saturday because in Lester’s first start against the Dodgers this year, Hernandez walloped his second pitch for a home run. Being that it was the only run Lester allowed Los Angeles in 15 innings this year, of course the Dodgers wanted him in the lineup.

Being that Kendrick and Hernandez both play second base and the outfield, Roberts texted the veteran, Kendrick, earlier in the day and asked which he preferred.

“Left field,” Kendrick texted back.

Two batters into the bottom of the first, following Dexter Fowler’s leadoff single, Bryant laced a long fly to left that Kendrick simply didn’t get back on in time. It banged off the ivy-covered wall for an RBI double.

Then the Cubs scored two more in the second—the second run being Baez’s steal of home. The play actually was a safety-squeeze bunt with Lester at the plate, but Baez strayed too far from third, catcher Carlos Ruiz threw and Baez broke for the plate. Ruiz’s throw was off line, and Justin Turner couldn’t redirect it home in time to catch Baez.

“Definitely not the way we drew it up,” Bryant said. “But Javy’s a playmaker. He seems to find a way.”

Bryant noted Ruiz’s poor throw, said his thanks that Baez didn’t get hurt on the play and noted, “Javy doing crazy things out there…that’s just what we do.”

“Just what we do.” You heard that over and over in the Cubs clubhouse, the home of a supremely confident team that is growing more bold and more confident as each day passes in this postseason. Chicago survived San Francisco, stared down a potential disaster Saturday and keeps on rolling.

Maddon has preached all season to embrace the expectations, and the Cubs certainly are. Maybe the billy goats and black cats appeared at times in the past, but as the T-shirt worn last week by celebrity fan Bill Murray read, “I ain’t afraid of no goat.”

When Montero’s grand slam blasted into the night, it was party time again.

Baez was in the video room behind the dugout at the time, quickly studying his latest at-bat.

“I think I busted, like, three chairs,” Baez said of his mad scramble back into the dugout. “Everybody was going crazy, man. We needed that run bad.”

By then, Lester was long gone.

“I just thought that tonight Jon really wasn’t on top of his game,” Maddon said of his starter, who allowed just one run and four hits but several loud outs in six innings, adding: “If Jon was on top of his game, I may not have done it [pinch hit for him in the sixth], but I didn’t think he had his best stuff tonight.”

Roberts, meanwhile, said he would sleep well despite the loss.

“As long as you think things through and put guys in the best position to have success on your team, a chance to win, you can do the right things, but they can’t always work out,” Roberts said.

So score another one for the Cubs, who keep figuring out ways to make things work out for themselves.

Maddon echoed Roberts, speaking of Chapman’s blown save despite fanning Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig before Gonzalez’s game-tying single: “Because it didn’t work out doesn’t mean it was wrong.”

Yeah, this thing is going to be fun over the next several days. And the Cubs, well, they’ve already exceeded what they did in last year’s NLCS against the Mets: They’ve won a game.

“Something about the playoffs,” Bryant said. “You see things you normally don’t see. Sure, it’s stressful sometimes. You’re heart beats a little faster.”

Tick, tick, tick. It sure does. And after the Cubs escaped this one, Chicago’s heart is beating a little faster as it heads toward Kershaw on Sunday night.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.

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On Saturday night, the Chicago Cubs won their first National League Championship Series game since way back in 2003.

They couldn’t have done it without a few assists from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The final score of 8-4 in Game 1 of the NLCS makes it look like Chicago won a laugher. Not really. The Cubs were clinging to a 3-1 lead through the first seven innings, but then they seemed doomed to relive the heartbreak of their last two trips to the NLCS when Adrian Gonzalez tied the game with a two-run single off Aroldis Chapman in the eighth.

But then, in the bottom of the inning, the normally reliable Joe Blanton served up this very loud sound off Miguel Montero‘s bat, precipitating even louder sounds from the fans packed into Wrigley Field:

Montero‘s grand slam opened up a 7-3 lead and, according to FanGraphs, skyrocketed Chicago’s win expectancy from 63.2 percent to 98.7 percent. That was the stake through the Dodgers’ heart. When Dexter Fowler added a home run of his own to bump Chicago’s win expectancy to 99.5 percent, that was only the extra little stab to make sure the Dodgers were actually dead.

Oh, they’ll be back. The Cubs still have to win three more games. And in the wake of their heartbreaking loss, at least one Dodger is playing the “This is a good thing!” card.

“This actually gives us a lot of confidence,” said Gonzalez, via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “We know we can beat them.”

Thing is, though, that sense of knowing would be a lot stronger if the Dodgers had actually beaten the Cubs. And make no mistake, they could have.

The 3-1 deficit the Dodgers found themselves in after seven frames was partially owed to bad luck. They put together some tough at-bats against Jon Lester but made the mortal mistake of hitting the ball at the Cubs’ historically great (h/t Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus) defense.

However, the Dodgers were also guilty of digging a few inches in their own hole. A questionable send home of Gonzalez in the second inning resulted in the death of a rally when he was thrown out by Ben Zobrist. In the bottom of the inning, a 2-0 deficit became a 3-0 deficit when the Dodgers permitted Javier Baez to steal home.

The Dodgers caught a break when the wind helped an Andre Ethier fly ball clear the fence in the fifth inning, but the real breaks came after Cubs skipper Joe Maddon took Lester out after only 77 pitches and decided to get cute with his bullpen. 

That opened the door for the Dodgers to rally off Mike Montgomery and Pedro Strop at the start of the eighth. With a little help from Kris Bryant’s lapse in defensive judgment, they did just that to load the bases with nobody out.

Rather than to prevent any fires, that’s when Maddon finally went to Chapman to put the fire out. Such a decision backfired in Game 3 of the National League Division Series, and it backfired again when Gonzalez turned around a 102 mph fastball. 

Going off this note from ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, neither of these incidents was a fluke:

Gonzalez’s single dropped Chicago’s win expectancy to 49.8 percent, down from 90.6 a few moments earlier. In that moment, you have to wonder how many in Wrigley Field were keenly aware that it had been the 13-year anniversary of the Steve Bartman incident just a day earlier. Or, maybe some were just thinking “Here we go again” after last year’s NLCS sweep at the hands of the New York Mets.

The game wasn’t lost yet, though. It had become a 50-50 affair. The margin for error was gone, placing even more pressure on each manager’s roulette wheel to land on the right numbers.

Putting Blanton in to start the eighth was an OK move on the part of Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. He was good in the regular season and had been scoreless in five innings in the postseason. But as soon as he gave up a leadoff double to Zobrist, you had to figure Roberts wasn’t far from getting aggressive with Kenley Jansen like he did in Games 1 and 5 of the NLDS.

Roberts instead decided not only to let Blanton get out of the inning on his own, but to put obstacles in his way. He ordered an intentional walk to Jason Heyward, who OPS’d .631 this season, with one out. And with two outs, he ordered another IBB to Chris Coghlan, who OPS’d .608, to load the bases.

The idea was to bring the pitcher’s spot to the plate and force Maddon to remove Chapman for a pinch-hitter. Per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, this was the card Roberts felt he had to play:

Not the dumbest idea, but the risk would have been far less if Roberts had also put Jansen on the mound. He’s a strikeout pitcher who doesn’t walk guys and who, by virtue of his extreme cutter use, rarely ever throws pitches his catcher can’t handle.

In sticking with Blanton, Roberts was trusting that a pitcher who really likes to throw his slider would execute. He executed two in a row to go up 0-2 on Montero, pinch hitting for Chapman. But the third? Blanton might as well have placed it on a tee: 

And that was pretty much that. The Dodgers did respond to Chicago’s five-spot with an RBI double by Andrew Toles in the top of the ninth, but that was a mere shred of dignity salvaged.

The Dodgers will have their shot at evening the score with Clayton Kershaw on the mound for Game 2 on Sunday. But with this set to be already his fourth postseason appearance following a regular season marred by back trouble, there is a question of how much he can give the Dodgers. And oh yeah, his name and clutch postseason performances are not yet synonymous.

It’s a stretch to say the Dodgers should have won Game 1 when the closest they ever came to doing so was a 0-0 tie in the first and a 3-3 tie in the eighth. But they definitely could have won Game 1. Since it was going to be hard enough to beat this juggernaut of a Cubs team, that’s something for them to kick themselves over.

And as for those Cubs, well, their takeaway from this game should be the same ol‘ 2016 refrain: Maybe this really is their year.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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A power surge in the bottom of the eighth inning featuring a Miguel Montero pinch-hit grand slam lifted the Chicago Cubs to an 8-4 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday night. 

The Dodgers battled back from a 3-1 deficit in the top of the eighth to tie the game after the Cubs pulled starter Jon Lester, who gave up one run in six innings on 77 pitches. But the Cubs showed a brand of postseason resiliency that’s been uncommon on the North Side of Chicago for 108 years. 

The pitching matchup featured opposing hurlers trending in different directions Saturday night.

Lester hadn’t allowed more than one run in nine of his last 10 starts, while Los Angeles’ Kenta Maeda was thrashed for 12 runs over his last three appearances. 

The Cubs got to Maeda in the bottom of the first, when Kris Bryant doubled home Dexter Fowler from first to take a 1-0 lead.

Maeda attempted to throw a two-seam fastball on the outside corner, but Bryant was strong enough to send a shot to left field over Howie Kendrick’s head. 

It was all that Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal had to see:

However, Daren Willman of MLB.com pointed out that Kendrick could have done better:

The Dodgers almost had an answer in the top of the second. After an Adrian Gonzalez single and a Kike Hernandez walk, Maeda singled to left field. But Ben Zobrist threw the slow-footed Gonzalez out at home by a healthy margin.

Sports Illustrated‘s Jay Jaffe was not impressed with third base coach Chris Woodward:

Maeda returned to the mound and got into more trouble, giving up a leadoff triple to Jason Heyward. He scored on a hustle double by Javier Baez, who blooped a fly ball off the end of his bat into no-man’s land between shortstop and right field.

According to Statcast, that usually doesn’t end well for the batter:

Baez’s hustle was a welcome sight for Katie Klabusich of The Establishment:

Baez made it 3-0 when he advanced to third on a passed ball and then stole home with Lester at the plate.

After Lester squared up and missed the bunt with Baez charging down the third base line, Dodgers catcher Carlos Ruiz got up and fired to third. Instead of stopping and turning back toward third, Baez continued home.

By the time Justin Turner could fire it back home, Baez had slid in safely for the first postseason home base steal by a Cubs player since Jimmy Slagle in Game 4 of the 1907 World Series, according to Fox Sports: MLB.

Fox Sports: MLB couldn’t contain its excitement:

Then again, neither could Rian Watt of Vice Sports:

Los Angeles got a jolt in the top of the fifth inning, when Andre Ethier pinch hit for Maeda and sent a high fastball the other way for a solo home run to cut the Dodgers’ deficit to two. 

Ethier’s long ball surprised Stacey Gotsulias of Today’s Knuckleball:

MLB.com’s Alyson Footer tried to explain how the ball went out:

It was the only blemish on Lester’s night. Jorge Soler hit for him in the sixth with two outs and Baez at second. However, Soler grounded out to short, and Diamond questioned the decision to pull Lester:

After an uneventful seventh inning that saw Travis Wood, Carl Edwards Jr. and Mike Montgomery record an out apiece, Montgomery allowed a leadoff single in the eighth to pinch hitter Andrew Toles. 

Montgomery was pulled for Pedro Strop, who walked Chase Utley to put two men on with no outs. It got worse for the Cubs when Turner hit a ground ball down the third base line, which was fielded deep behind the bag by Bryant. In an attempt to get the force-out, he tried to beat Toles to third. But he was too late, and the bases were loaded. 

Nick Vlahos of the Peoria Star Journal was prepared for the drama:

In a dire situation, the Cubs turned to flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman, who started by striking out NL Rookie of the Year candidate Corey Seager on four pitches. 

The drama was too much for 101 WKQX:

Yasiel Puig met the same fate, fanning too late on a 103 mph dart for the second out. 

But Gonzalez was able to figure out Chapman, driving a single up the middle to tie the game 3-3.

Jason McIntyre of the Big Lead couldn’t believe Gonzalez was able to catch up to Chapman:

While other seasons might have seen doom and gloom for the Cubs, Zobrist ensured the Wrigley crowd stayed in it with a leadoff double in the bottom of the eighth off Joe Blanton.

After an Addison Russell groundout and intentional walk to Heyward, Baez popped up to make it two outs. 

Instead of pitching to Chris Coghlan, who pinch hit for Chapman, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called for another intentional walk to load the bases and force the Cubs’ hand to get Chapman out of the game. 

Reserve catcher Miguel Montero was called in to bat for the closer, and he put an entire city on his shoulders, launching a Blanton offering into the right field porch for a grand slam. 

Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman wasn’t afraid to give Montero’s bash a prestigious label:

Dexter Fowler electrified Wrigley even more when he followed it up with a big fly of his own, and 103.5 KISS FM couldn’t control itself:

Los Angeles plated one in the ninth after a Toles double scored Joc Pederson. But with one out, Utley ripped a liner in the glove of Rizzo, who quickly turned and fired to second to end the game with a double play.

Both teams have had sizable championship droughts, although one is noticeably longer than the other. The Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988, while the Cubs last won a title 80 years before that. 

The Dodgers will look to ace Clayton Kershaw to tie the series in Game 2 on Sunday, while Chicago will turn to this season’s ERA king, Kyle Hendricks, in what looks like a big-time pitching matchup before the NLCS shifts to Los Angeles for three games.

Post-Game Reaction

The hero of the night Montero kept it simple when trying to describe his game-changing at-bat, via 670 The Score:

There might have been more work involved just remaining focused after preparing for a night of sitting on the bench, via Josh Frydman of WGN News:

But after Montero’s ball left the park, the Cubs’ bench might have been focused on their safety, according to Baez via USA Today Sports’ Bob Nightengale:

While there was elation in Chicago’s dugout, there was despair in Los Angeles’ as Roberts explained his decision-making in that eighth inning, via Fox Sports:MLB:

Bryant though was okay with Roberts’ decisions, via ChicagoSports:

With Los Angeles’ ace in Kershaw looming next in Game 2, there had to have been added pressure for the Cubs to take the series opener as facing a former Cy Young winner down 1-0 could have created an insurmountable deficit. 

The Dodgers will need their ace to be just that come Sunday or else they’ll be flying home to Los Angeles needing to win all three games if they want a realistic chance of advancing to the World Series. 

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What do you get when you take the postseason version of Mariano Rivera, flip him around, replace his deadly cutter with a deadly slider and ask him to take on a slightly different role?

Basically the Andrew Miller you’re seeing right now.

There were rumblings of the Cleveland Indians being on the verge of something special with their tall, lanky left-hander during their sweep of the Boston Red Sox in the American League Division Series. The 6’7″ Miller pitched in two games, tallying four innings that included four baserunners and seven strikeouts. The way he was throwing, even foul balls were minor victories for Red Sox hitters.

Now it’s the Toronto Blue Jays‘ turn to find out how that feels.

Miller has picked up where he left off in the American League Championship Series, helping the Indians to a 2-0 win in Game 1 on Friday and a 2-1 victory in Game 2 on Saturday. Between the two contests, he’s logged 3.2 innings, allowed one hit and struck out 10 of the 12 batters he’s faced.

“It’s easy now,” Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez said, per August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs. “He’s too good, man.”

Miller had impressed in six previous October appearances, logging eight and a third scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. But the mind boggles at what he’s done this October. He’s pitched 7.2 innings in which he’s faced 28 batters and allowed only five of them to reach and none to come home. He’s fanned 17.

That last figure already looms large in the postseason record books. Miller is now tied for the 10th-most strikeouts in a single postseason and is only 11 away from Francisco Rodriguez’s record of 28 from 2002. Even if it’s a clean four-game sweep, Miller could tie or surpass that mark by the end of the ALCS.

But it’s not Rodriguez’s name that’s suddenly being lumped into the conversation with Miller. It’s Rivera’s.

His name is popping up on Twitter in a way that it probably hasn’t since he pitched his last game for the New York Yankees in 2013. Among the hottest takes is this one from fellow pitching great Pedro Martinez:

This isn’t high praise for Miller. It is the highest of praise.

If you haven’t seen it in a while, I recommend going to the table of Rivera’s postseason numbers at Baseball-Reference.com. Like Martinez’s own prime or Barry Bonds’ entire career, it’s filled with so many ridiculous numbers that it looks more like some baseball egghead’s wild fantasy than a record of actual events.

But Rivera really did those things. He really did pitch in 96 games. He really did allow fewer earned runs (11) than there have been men on the moon (12). He really did allow only 86 hits and 21 walks in 141 innings. He really did blow only five saves.

There’s no bad postseason hiding in there. There were eight postseason runs in which the Yankees used Rivera in six or more games. He never did worse than a 1.72 ERA in any of those. His peak was in 2009, when he tallied 16 innings and allowed only one run in 12 appearances.

The difficulty in comparing Rivera in the postseason to Miller in the postseason has to do with their roles. The Yankees almost exclusively used Rivera to finish games. Cleveland skipper Terry Francona is using Miller as a bridge to Cody Allen, bringing him into contests as early as the fifth inning.

But while he may not be finishing games and fattening his numbers even more by doing so, there has indeed been the same kind of “Game Over” feeling when Miller has entered games that used to exist with Rivera.

This is partially a matter of signature pitches. Rivera had his cutter, which Chipper Jones once said was “like a buzz saw,” per Bob Klapisch at Fox Sports. Miller has his slider. It’s a devilish pitch that he throws often. Per Baseball Savant, swings and misses on sliders accounted for 13.8 percent of all Miller’s pitches in the regular season, easily the highest mark of any pitcher.

It’s been same ol’, same ol’ in October, where not even reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson can keep himself from looking like a rag doll after swinging at it. Behold the visual evidence from Fagerstrom:

What Miller also has in common with Rivera in October is his ability to work more than one inning. Rivera did that 58 times. Miller has gone more than one inning in each of his appearances this October, and eight of 10 for his career in the postseason.

As such, the innings in which Miller’s dominance is taking place are really the only difference between him now and Rivera at his postseason best. And even that is arguably only footnote fodder now that the relief pitcher landscape is changing the way it is.

“It’s turning the baseball world upside down, the way bullpens have been used lately,” Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said before the ALCS, per Ted Berg of For The Win.

Miller and Francona are at the vanguard of the movement. The conventional wisdom used to be that elite relievers were to be used only in high-leverage innings, preferably with the last three outs on the line. Following a trade that brought Miller from the Yankees in July, Francona made it clear with his aggressive use of the lefty that he was tired of abiding by that wisdom.

“I hate waiting for the ninth inning,” Francona told The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh. “I never did understand that. You know, you wait around, wait around, and you lose a game in the eighth. Well, wait a minute, that might’ve been the most important inning of the game.”

What Francona is doing now is something so obvious it’s a wonder he’s the first to do it. He’s essentially treating all postseason innings as the most important inning of the game. They’re all high-leverage innings. That means taking no chances, which means using your best pitchers when you can.

Even if he’s not yet on the future Hall of Famer’s level, Miller is basically the second coming of Rivera in this sense: He’s the best at doing what only the best relievers should do.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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The Cleveland Indians again rode Andrew Miller’s left arm, along with strong starting pitching by Josh Tomlin and timely hitting by Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor, to a 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday and a 2-0 lead in the American League Championship Series.

Cleveland’s postseason formula has been to take an early lead and let the starting pitching hold down the fort before turning it over to Miller and Cody Allen for roughly nine outs.

Saturday started out well for the Tribe, with Santana ripping a laser over the wall in left field for a 1-0 lead in the second inning against Toronto starter J.A. Happ.

Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the right side was not Santana’s power side during the regular season:

After being shut out by Corey Kluber on Friday, the Blue Jays did not want to go quietly in Game 2, responding in the top of the third inning against Tomlin.

Darwin Barney, who started at second base after Devon Travis re-aggravated a knee injury in Game 1, singled with one out. He moved to second on a groundout by Ezequiel Carrera and scored on Josh Donaldson’s double.

The opposite-field double also moved Donaldson to the top of the Blue Jays’ record book, per StatsCentre:

ESPN.com’s Buster Olney provided a look at where the reigning AL MVP’s hits have gone in October:

Tomlin battled through the third inning, throwing 24 pitches before working his way out of trouble with just one run crossing the plate.

As they have done throughout the postseason, the Indians wasted no time responding.

After reaching first base on a fielder’s choice in the bottom of the inning, Rajai Davis proceeded to steal second base and then took third on a wild pitch by Happ.

With two outs, Lindor, who was the hero with a two-run homer in the sixth inning Friday and singled in his first at-bat Saturday, gave the Indians a 2-1 lead with an RBI single.

Per Baseball Tonight, Lindor is getting accustomed to multihit games in the playoffs:

Jonah Keri of CBS Sports believes many people have found their new favorite baseball player based on early returns in October:

Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal noticed one thing three of the four remaining playoff teams have in common:

With the lead, Cleveland manager Terry Francona opted to let Tomlin pitch into the sixth inning against Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista for the third time. He retired Donaldson and Encarnacion quickly before walking Bautista.

Francona then went to his bullpen, ending Tomlin’s day after 5.2 innings in which he allowed three hits and one run with six strikeouts and two walks.

Tomlin’s success since Sept. 1 has helped Cleveland get by without Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com shared the numbers:

The key to Tomlin’s success on Saturday was his ability to generate ground balls, per Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs:

Because Miller threw 31 pitches in Game 1, Bryan Shaw relieved Tomlin and got Troy Tulowitzki to end the potential threat in the sixth.

Miller came out to start the seventh inning, striking out the side on 15 pitches before recording two more punchouts in the eighth inning, adding to his postseason legend in the process.

T.J. Zuppe of 92.3 The Fan tried to illustrate Miller’s postseason dominance with numbers:

Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports took a different approach to illustrating what happens when Miller is on the mound:

You run out of words at some point with Miller, because this level of dominance is not supposed to happen, particularly in October against the best teams in baseball.

Just as he did Friday, Allen came on to relieve Miller in the ninth inning. Cleveland’s closer did his best imitation of Miller by striking out Encarnacion and Bautista before Tulowitzki flew out to center field to end the game.

This is what the Indians needed to happen. They were brilliant at home during the regular season, with a 53-28 record, and have yet to lose in four games at Progressive Field in the postseason.

The Blue Jays are down, but they are far from out in the ALCS. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez will start Games 3 and 4 at Rogers Centre on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, while the Indians will counter with an injured Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger.

Toronto’s fans are going to be loud with support for their team. The Blue Jays need to get their offense going, but with the pitching advantage in each of the next two games, they have a chance to extend the series.

Postgame Reaction

As was the case on Friday, Miller became the main talking point after Game 2 for his dominant two-inning effort against the Blue Jays. 

“There’s a reason we gave up what we did for him,” Francona said, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Gregor Chisholm. “We thought that he could be a guy that we could leverage in situations like we have. And it would make our bullpen that much better and give us a chance to keep playing. And that’s exactly what he’s doing.”

It would be easy to keep singing the praises of Miller, but the Indians don’t get a chance to use him without Tomlin shutting down the Blue Jays for nearly six full innings. 

Per MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis called Tomlin a guy who is “easy to root for” because “he’s had to work for all 89 mph on that fastball.”

The Blue Jays aren’t in a full-blown panic facing a 2-0 series deficit, just as they did last year against the Kansas City Royals, but manager John Gibbons is aware the sense of urgency is increasing. 

“Our back’s against the wall,” Gibbons said, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet.ca. “That’s pretty obvious.”

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Game 1 of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs is underway at Wrigley Field.

Keep it here for all the latest updates, reaction, analysis, pictures, tweets and anything else we can think of as the action unfolds.

Hit us up in the comments section below and on Twitter @RickWeinerBR to partake in the festivities! 

Final Score

Cubs 8, Dodgers 4

WP: Chapman

LP: Blanton

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Pitching was the story in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, as the Cleveland Indians jumped out to an early series lead with a 2-0 victory Friday night at Progressive Field.

Marco Estrada threw eight strong innings for the Blue Jays. But Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen combined to shut out the high-powered Toronto offense, and Francisco Lindor provided all the offense the Indians would need with a two-run home run at the bottom of the sixth inning.

Now the Indians will look to claim a big series lead with Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA, 118 K) on the hill, while the Blue Jays try to pull things even behind Cy Young Award candidate J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA, 163 K).

Who will come out on top in Game 2 of this exciting ALCS matchup?

Keep it right here for live updates on all of Saturday’s action, and for further MLB analysis, be sure follow me on Twitter, @JoelReuterBR.

FINAL SCORE: Blue Jays 1, Indians 2

W: Josh Tomlin (1-0)

L: J.A. Happ (0-1)

SV: Cody Allen (2)

SCORING PLAYS

BOT 2: Carlos Santana solo HR (0-1)

TOP 3: Josh Donaldson RBI double (1-1)

BOT 3: Francisco Lindor RBI single (1-2)

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