Archive for October, 2016

NLCS Schedule 2016: TV Info, Odds and Predictions Before Series Opener

Following the Los Angeles Dodgers’ come-from-behind win over the Washington Nationals in Game 5 of the NLDS, the NLCS is officially set with the Chicago Cubs looking to return to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

According to Odds Shark, the Cubs enter the series as 20-39 favorites, while the Dodgers are 7-4 underdogs. Although history hasn’t been kind to Chicago, every indication throughout 2016 has been that the Cubs are the best all-around team in baseball.

As the Cubs look to exorcise more than a century of demons by reaching and winning the World Series, here is a full rundown of the NLCS viewing schedule, as well as a prediction for how the series will play out.

    

Dodgers Player to Watch: Corey Seager

The Dodgers are far less offensively inclined than the Cubs, but that could change if shortstop Corey Seager gets hot at the plate in the NLCS.

The 2016 regular season marked Seager’s first full campaign in Major League Baseball, and he didn’t disappoint, as he hit .308 with 26 home runs, 72 RBI and 105 runs scored while being named to his first career All-Star team.

Despite enjoying such a great year, Seager was hit-and-miss during the NLDS, as he finished with a .130 batting average to go along with two home runs and three RBI.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the 22-year-old struggled to get anything going at the plate beyond the opening inning:

Seager’s first-inning heroics were key in Los Angeles advancing to the NLCS, but the Dodgers need him to be a threat throughout the entire course of games moving forward.

He possesses power that is rarely seen at the shortstop position, as evidenced by him accomplishing something that hadn’t been done by a shortstop in a division series in nine years, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell:

The Cubs boast a pitching staff that doesn’t let up, so Los Angeles will need contributions throughout its lineup to advance.

Provided Seager plays like the stud he proved himself to be during the regular season, however, it will make life far easier for the rest of the lineup in terms of seeing quality pitches and being put in positions to succeed.

    

Cubs Player to Watch: Kris Bryant

After establishing himself as an MVP candidate during the regular season by hitting .292 with 39 home runs, 102 RBI and an NL-best 121 runs scored, third baseman Kris Bryant has carried over his hot hitting to the playoffs.

In Chicago’s NLDS triumph over the San Francisco Giants, Bryant hit .375 with one homer and three RBI, and he proved he has a knack for clutch hitting in the process.

Although the Cubs went on to lose in extra innings, Bryant hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning of Game 3 against the Giants to tie the game, which put him in elite company, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

While Bryant is just 24 years of age, he seemingly already has the mindset of a veteran player who has been through all the battles before.

Per Dan Martin of the New York Post, Bryant said the Cubs gained “motivation” in losing to the New York Mets in last year’s NLCS and that he and the Cubs don’t intend to go through a similar situation this time around: “Going through that NLCS, when we had high expectations, was tough. We found out it was like to be swept and what that feels like. And we definitely don’t want to do that again.”

For as great as the Cubs were last season, they are a far more experienced and dominant team in 2016, and the steps taken by Bryant are a big reason for that.

The 2015 NL Rookie of the Year makes the entire lineup better due to his ability to get on base and hit the ball out of the park, and he figures to make life miserable for the L.A. pitching staff in the NLCS.

    

Series Prediction

The Dodgers enter the NLCS at a significant disadvantage since their roster is nowhere near as deep and talented as Chicago’s—and due to the fact that ace Clayton Kershaw won’t be available in Game 1.

Kershaw started Game 4 of the NLDS and came in for the final two outs of Game 5 to record the save and send L.A. to the next round.

Although Kershaw was far from his best during the NLDS with a 5.84 ERA, the Dodgers are overly dependent on him to win games, as evidenced by this tweet courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info:

Neither Rich Hill nor Kenta Maeda pitched well in starting roles for the Dodgers in the NLDS, and rookie Julio Urias could be pressed into more significant action against the Cubs.

Conversely, Chicago’s rotation is stacked from top to bottom with Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey all capable of tossing a gem on any given day.

The Cubs also have a deep lineup without any truly easy outs, spearheaded by Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Javier Baez.

Both Rizzo and Russell struggled mightily in the NLDS, yet Chicago still managed to put plenty of runs on the board.

It is difficult to envision their issues continuing for much longer, and that makes the Cubs an even more difficult team to contend with.

The Dodgers were seemingly forced to empty the tank in order to get past the Nats, and there simply won’t be enough left to pull off the upset over Major League Baseball’s best team.

Prediction: Cubs win in 5

     

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ALCS Schedule 2016: Start Time, Odds, World Series Predictions Before Game 2

The Cleveland Indians drew first blood in the American League Championship Series, and now it’s time for the Toronto Blue Jays to see if they can answer back.

That will not be an easy task, because the Indians continued their shutdown pitching as they defeated the Blue Jays 2-0 in the first game of the ALCS at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

Strangely, it was Toronto pitcher Marco Estrada who threw the complete game for his team in a losing effort. While Estrada was sharp, he gave up a two-run homer to Francisco Lindor in the sixth inning, and that was the only hit that produced runs in the series opener.

Estrada became the only Toronto pitcher to throw a complete game this season.

The Indians figured to have an excellent chance to win Game 1 at home with ace Corey Kluber on the mound. He had his good stuff working, but it was more of his ability to work out of trouble that got the job done for 6.1 innings.

Kluber made his best pitches with runners on, and he kept Toronto’s big bats from getting clutch hits. Manager Terry Francona then brought in bullpen ace with one out in the seventh inning, and Andrew Miller pummeled the Blue Jays throughout the rest of the seventh and eighth. Cody Allen pitched a 1-2-3 ninth and allowed the Indians to secure the win.

In many ways, Game 1 was a must-win game for the Indians because they had their ace on the mound. They will have a much more difficult time in Game 2 Saturday with Josh Tomlin on the mound against J.A. Happ.

On the surface, the Blue Jays have the advantage. Happ was 20-4 with a 3.18 earned-run average and 1.169 WHIP, and he has the ability to shut down good teams.

Tomlin is not a hard thrower, and the Blue Jays hitters should feel confident that they can get good swings against him.

Tomlin was 13-9 with a 4.40 ERA this season and gave up 187 hits in 174.0 innings. More importantly, he gave up 36 homers this season, and that’s the most of any pitcher on the Cleveland staff by a wide margin.

However, Tomlin is not a pushover. He pitched the clinching game Monday night in the American League Division Series against the Boston Red Sox, limiting his opponents to four hits in five innings.

The Blue Jays are -125 favorites (bet $100 to win $80) to win Game 2, according to Odds Shark. The Indians are +115 underdogs in Game 2 at Progressive Field.

When it comes to the World Series, the Chicago Cubs are solid favorites among the four remaining teams. The Cubs are +140 favorites to win their first World Series title since 1908. The Blue Jays are the second choice at +250, while the Indians and Los Angeles Dodgers are both +450.

              

Predictions

The Indians may have gotten the jump on the Blue Jays, but it’s difficult to see them winning this seven-game series. They have the advantage when Kluber pitches, but the rest of their starting staff looks vulnerable. Look for the Blue Jays to turn the series around starting Saturday night. They will win Game 2 with Happ on the mound and take the series in six games.

The Cubs are the strongest team left in the postseason, and they are set up well to beat the exhausted Dodgers in the first two games of the series at Wrigley Field. Cubs manager Joe Maddon will send Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, 197 strikeouts and 1.016 WHIP) and Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA, 0.979 WHIP) to the mound in the first two games, while Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that Kenta Maeda (16-11, 3.48 ERA, 1.139 WHIP) will start the series opener.

The Dodgers showed plenty of heart in beating the Washington Nationals in five games, and they are likely to fight the Cubs to the limit in each game. However, the Cubs will earn the National League pennant by a 4-1 margin.

The Cubs get to their first World Series since 1945, and their 108-year drought and worldwide following will make them heavy sentimental favorites.

However, the Blue Jays have the depth, power and talent to extend this series to seven games, and by the time it’s over, the Cubs, Maddon and their fans will be left thinking about what might have been. 

Toronto will win the World Series in seven memorable games.

              

Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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MLB Playoffs 2016: Latest World Series Bracket, Predictions and Odds

Just four teams remain in Major League Baseball’s quest for the 2016 World Series as the American League and National League Championship Series get underway. 

The Cleveland Indians (1948), Toronto Blue Jays (1993), Chicago Cubs (1908) and Los Angeles Dodgers (1988) have all had some sizable championship droughts, some much longer than others, as one dry spell is about to come to an end this October. 

Before we delve into each team’s odds to win it all and who will duke it out in the Fall Classic, here is how the postseason bracket looks heading into the championship series:

    

Odds Guide

Odds to win World Series (via Odds Shark)

ALCS Teams

Cleveland Indians: 9-2

Toronto Blue Jays: 9-4

    

NLCS Teams

Chicago Cubs: 29-20

Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-1

    

Predictions

Who makes the World Series:

Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians

Who wins the World Series:

Chicago Cubs

    

As the pressure continues to build in the postseason, stress on a team’s depth at each position becomes more and more magnified. 

For the Toronto Blue Jays, an offense that is reliant mostly on the long ball is just one cold stretch away from being put in an ALCS deficit too deep to dig out of. 

This season, the Blue Jays belted 221 home runs, ranked fourth in the majors. The last time a team ranked in the league’s top five in home runs went on to win the World Series was 2009, when the New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies. 

So power doesn’t equate to postseason success, even if the Indians pitching staff gave up 186 home runs this season. 

However, Cleveland’s offense provides more options outside of the power department. While Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli each provided 34 home runs on the season, the Indians’ team batting average of .262 was tied for fifth in the league. 

While it might be enough to get past the Blue Jays, it’s doubtful they’ll be able to stop the Cubs. 

Chicago has been the class of the majors all season with a 103-58 record and young talent that has put up some big numbers:

That talent headlined an offense that was ranked third in the league with 4.99 runs per game, and it found ways to plate runs in the NLDS in clutch situations:

Supporting a pitching staff that boasts ERA king Kyle Hendricks alongside Jon Lester and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, the Cubs look like they can end a 108-year wait in the coming weeks. 

    

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Keys for Each Team to Win NLCS Game 1

The Chicago Cubs enter the National League Championship Series with as much confidence as a team battling a 108-year title drought could possibly have.

Late Tuesday night, it looked like Chicago would be headed home to Wrigley Field to play a pivotal Game 5 against the San Francisco Giants. The Cubbies trailed 5-2 in Game 4 and were just three outs away from dropping their second straight game to the Giants. 

Instead, Chicago tacked four runs on the Giants bullpen to take a 6-5 lead, and then closer Aroldis Chapman struck out the side in the bottom half of the inning with a flurry of 100-plus mph fastballs. The win propelled the Cubs to their second trip to the NLCS in as many years—they fell to the New York Mets in the 2015 championship series. 

The Cubs will host Game 1 on Saturday night—first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m ET—on the strength of their 103-win regular season, welcoming the Los Angeles Dodgers to town. Los Angeles fought off a late Game 5 surge from the Washington Nationals on Thursday night at Nationals Park to set its date with Chicago. 

The Dodgers overcame the Nats’ 2-1 series lead to make the NLCS—the team’s first since its 2013 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals—and now face ostensibly their toughest test of the season: a locked-in Cubs team on a mission for a championship.

If Los Angeles hopes to progress to the World Series to take on the Toronto Blue Jays or Cleveland Indians, whichever team emerges from the American League, it will likely need to take at least one of the first two games in Chicago. With the momentum the Dodgers will maintain from Thursday’s victory, Game 1 is as good a time as any to snatch back home-field advantage.

But first, let’s take a look at what Chicago must do to keep its postseason freight train rolling. 

A Cubs triumph in Game 1 relies on performances from students of the old school and the new school.

One key to victory Saturday evening lies with the Cubs’ Game 1 starter, grizzled veteran and Cy Young candidate Jon Lester. He’s only 32, but Lester has pitched in seven postseasons, including 2016, with the Boston Red Sox, Oakland Athletics and Cubs. Lester attained a bulk of his playoff experience in 2013 with Boston, as it rumbled to a World Series title. That postseason, Lester surrendered just six earned runs in 34.2 innings. 

Three years later, Chicago manager Joe Maddon and the Cubs could hardly ask for a steadier Game 1 starter, and this is a team that also features 2015 NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks, who dealt to a dazzling 2.13 ERA in the regular season. As for Lester, he won 19 games in 2016 and surrendered only 2.44 runs per nine innings, which is the lowest ERA of his career. 

Lester also proved he has the mental fortitude to handle the pressures of being a Game 1 starter for a team pegged as the World Series favorites. He was magnificent in Chicago’s Game 1 victory at home in the division series. Facing the Giants, Lester tossed eight scoreless innings and gave up just five hits while walking none.

The Cubs needed every zero Lester was able to throw up on the scoreboard, as their offense didn’t break through until the 8th inning. In the eighth, Javier Baez blasted a solo home run to give Chicago the lead. Facing Los Angeles, Lester has the tough assignment of dealing with the likes of Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez, all of whom homered against the Nationals. 

Now Chicago has made it to yet another NLCS, the expectations continue to rise and the ghosts of losing seasons past begin to creep into everyone’s minds. And since it’s only Game 1, we won’t mention the events of October 2003. 

Instead, it’s important to note the Cubs’ lack of offense in Game 1 of this year’s NLDS. Chicago’s lineup is stacked—it produced the third-most runs in Major League Baseball during the regular season. But based on what we saw in the Cubs’ first game against San Francisco, the impetus to get the offense going against the Dodgers on Saturday should fall squarely on Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. 

To give their team the best chance of grabbing an immediate advantage in the series, Rizzo and Bryant need to drive in at least two runs between them in Game 1. They can’t bank on someone such as Baez, Jason Heyward or even Ben Zobrist to pick up the slack again. 

These corner infielders and NL MVP candidates were the biggest threats to opposing pitching during the 2016 campaign, and that continues to be the case into the postseason, even though Rizzo struggled mightily in the division series. He went just 1-for-15 against Giants pitching, but the guy smacked 32 homers and drove in 109 runs in the regular season. He needs to return to form early on in the series if the Cubs are going to make the Fall Classic. 

As for Bryant, he doesn’t have much adjusting to do since he hit .375 off of Giants pitching in the first round of the playoffs with three extra-base hits.

The Cubs hitters will take their hacks in Game 1 off Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda, who will take over the role the Dodgers would have liked to give to their ace, Clayton Kershaw, had he not had to record the final two outs against Washington. 

Pitching will be one of the most significant areas for the Dodgers in this series, but in Game 1, each pitcher who comes to the mound will have to do his job. Manager Dave Roberts used six pitchers to record 27 outs in Game 5 of the division series, but it was the one he had to use that ups the ante for Game 1.

In addition to starter Rich Hill, who lasted 2.2 innings despite giving up only one run, Roberts called on starters Julio Urias, the 20-year-old, to throw two innings and Kershaw to close it out. It would be no easy task to pick out a hurler on the Dodgers roster who’s well rested at this point in the postseason, so requiring any starters or relievers to pick up another’s slack could hamper Los Angeles’ chances of winning at Wrigley on Saturday night. 

So although the pitching duties need to be shared among L.A.’s staff, it all starts with Maeda. He registered solid numbers during the regular season—16 wins, 11 losses and a 3.48 ERAbut the 28-year-old struggled in his only postseason appearance.

In Game 3 of the NLDS, the Dodgers returned home to L.A. with the series tied at one, but Maeda lasted only three innings, giving up four runs on five hits. After his exit, Los Angeles went on to use seven more pitchers in the 8-3 loss. Although Roberts’ crew was able to climb back from that 2-1 series deficit, a short outing from their starter would put the Dodgers in an unfortunate position in Game 1, as well as for the rest of the championship series.

The second key for Los Angeles to take Game 1 has almost as much to do with its team as with the Cubs. Chicago has a stellar defensive squad thanks to the crew of fielding wizards assembled by team president Theo Epstein. However, the one area where the Cubs often struggle is preventing runners from creating anarchy on the basepaths since their pitchers have trouble holding runners on.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, stealing bases was not something they excelled at doing—the club stole the fourth-fewest bases (45) of any team over the course of the regular season. In the postseason, though, throw out the stats (well, not completely). Still, Roberts knows the power a well-timed stolen base can have on a playoff game from his time with Boston. 

Since the Cubs make few errors and will not just give Los Angeles any extra bases, the Dodgers need to manufacture runs, especially against Chicago’s stellar pitching. Seager hit two home runs in the division series, but no other Dodger hit more than one.

As the playoffs move along, timely run-scoring hits tend to power offenses late in games even more than long balls do. If the Dodgers can come through in situations with runners in scoring position, they will seriously improve their chances of taking down Chicago.

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Dodgers vs. Cubs: NLCS Game 1 Live Stream Schedule, Ticket Info and Pick

The Los Angeles Dodgers survived a thrilling five-game series with the Washington Nationals to earn a berth in the 2016 National League Championship Series. Now they prepare to face baseball’s only 100-win team, the Chicago Cubs, for a spot in the World Series.

Chicago is the championship favorite heading into MLB‘s penultimate playoff round. The Cubs check in with 29-20 odds, while the Dodgers are the long shot of the final four at 5-1, according to Odds Shark.

The outlook would begin to shift if Los Angeles steals Game 1 on the road, though. So let’s check out all of the important details for the series opener. That’s followed by a game preview and a prediction for which club will grab the 1-0 lead.

                                                   

Viewing Information

Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago

When: Saturday, Oct. 15 at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox Sports 1

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

                                                 

Game Preview

Not only were the Cubs the best team during the regular season, but they also had the benefit of closing out their Division Series triumph over the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday. It gave them a chance to rest their pitchers and align their staff for the NLCS.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers were forced to pull out all the stops, highlighted by using ace Clayton Kershaw as a closer in Game 5, to get past the Nationals. They must quickly turn the page and try to upset the most well-rounded team in the league.

Doug Padilla of ESPN passed along comments from Kershaw about the elation of winning and rapidly trying to shift the focus to Chicago:

We’re going to Chicago, and our mind is completely shifted to beating the Cubs. They are a pretty solid team, from what I understand, and so I think we’ve got to really enjoy this one for, I mean, shoot, what is it 1:30 [a.m.] already? We’ve got to enjoy this for a few more hours and then we’ve got to get on that plane and change our mindset for sure.

The situation puts an added layer of pressure on Game 1 starter Kenta Maeda. He struggled in his first postseason start, giving up four runs in three innings, but the onus is on him to keep the third-ranked Cubs offense at bay long enough for the Dodgers to find their legs after a whirlwind few days.

That’s easier said than done. Chicago put up 16 runs over the final three games of its series against a Giants team that finished fourth in ERA during the regular season.

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune noted Cubs manager Joe Maddon stated the Dodgers present their own challenges, including a rotation that’s deeper than just Kershaw, but that he still likes the vibe from his club:

And you don’t want to see all these other dudes. So this time of year, you just see good pitching. That’s what this time of the year means.

I honestly believe our guys will be equal to the challenge. I know they’re going to be ready. We’re feeling pretty good about ourselves.

Maddon will turn to Jon Lester to get things started on the right foot for Chicago. He enjoyed a strong regular season, going 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 32 starts, and his postseason track record (2.63 ERA in 17 games) is equally promising.

One thing’s for sure: Whichever team wins the series is going to end an extended drought, as Tony Lastoria of Indians Baseball Insider pointed out:

Although the Cubs are the rightful favorites, they are far from a World Series lock. The Dodgers showcased their depth and resiliency to come back from 2-1 down against Washington, and having Kershaw is the ultimate equalizer in a playoff series.

At least for Game 1, however, Chicago should quite comfortably have the edge. They are rested and have the pitching advantage after getting some time to recover at home while the Dodgers have needed to travel to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: 5-2 Cubs

                                                 

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Blue Jays vs. Indians: ALCS Game 2 Time, TV Info, Live Stream and More

The American League Championship Series rolls on Saturday afternoon from Progressive Field with the Cleveland Indians holding a 1-0 series lead over the Toronto Blue Jays following their 2-0 victory in Game 1. 

Outstanding pitching from Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen kept Toronto’s offense at bay, while Francisco Lindor’s two-run homer off Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada provided the difference for the Tribe. 

Saturday’s second game of the series took a unique turn on Friday when the Indians announced that Josh Tomlin would be moved up to start in place of Trevor Bauer, who suffered a cut on his pinky finger that required stitches. 

The Blue Jays will counter with left-hander J.A. Happ before this series heads back to Toronto starting next week. 

 

Key Matchup for Toronto: Homers vs. Tomlin

The Blue Jays were likely kicking themselves after Game 1 for wasting early opportunities against Kluber. They had two runners on base in each of the first three innings but couldn’t take advantage and went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. 

There is good news for the Blue Jays against Tomlin. Cleveland’s starter allowed the third-most home runs in Major League Baseball during the regular season (36 in 174 innings), per ESPN.com

According to Joe Sheehan, Tomlin will be doing something that hasn’t been done since 2004:

For the record, the 2004 pitcher was Bartolo Colon with the Los Angeles Angels. He pitched fairly well against the Boston Red Sox, allowing three runs on seven hits in six innings.

Cleveland will be hoping for a similar effort from Tomlin, who was terrific against the Red Sox in the division series with two runs allowed in five innings.

The Blue Jays have a potent lineup, but they are at their best when home runs are a factor. In their three-game division series sweep against Texas, the Blue Jays hit 10 home runs. 

Following Tomlin’s Game 3 win against Boston, Jonah Keri of CBS Sports wrote about the right-hander’s formula for success without overpowering stuff:

He relies on guile and pinpoint control to survive in a world of terrifying fireballers. Given how severely the numbers tilt in a hitter’s favor when he gets ahead, every pitcher has a strong incentive to get ahead in the count early. For Tomlin, the prospect of slinging an 87-mph fastball to a hulking slugger on a 2-0 count practically begs him to throw first-pitch strikes.

Tomlin’s best asset is, as Keri noted, control. He had the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball this year (5.9) among qualified starters because he doesn’t walk hitters. 

The Blue Jays will put the ball in play often against Tomlin. Their key to success will be hitting it over the fence as they did so often against the Rangers. 

 

Key Matchup for Cleveland: Speed on Bases

The Indians didn’t have many chances to take advantage of their speed in Game 1, because Estrada limited them to seven baserunners in eight innings.

Lindor’s homer allowed them to ease off the throttle late in Game 1, but they won’t have that luxury on Saturday, since the Blue Jays figure to score at least a few runs against Tomlin. 

While Cleveland’s lineup is capable of playing long ball—Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli tied for the team lead with 34 homers—their best asset is using their speed and instincts to take extra bases in an effort to keep pressure on the opposing pitcher. 

The Indians were one of the best teams in baseball at stealing bases during the regular season, racking up 134 steals with an 81.21 percent success rate. 

Per August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs, Cleveland’s success on the bases extends far beyond just being able to steal them:

We host a stat here on FanGraphs called Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which filters out stolen-base attempts and focuses just on a player’s ability and efficiency in taking the extra base on hits and tagging up on fly balls. As a team, the Indians rank second in baseball in this measure, behind only the historic Padres. On an individual level, Jose Ramirez was baseball’s best baserunnerRajai Davis ranked seventh, among 268 batters with at least 300 plate appearances.

Fagerstrom also noted the Indians finished second in baseball by successfully taking the extra base on a hit 45 percent of the time and led baseball by scoring 129 runs from second on a single in 184 attempts. 

In a separate article for FanGraphs, Fagerstrom noted how poor Toronto pitchers have been this season at preventing stolen bases with opposing teams succeeding 37 times in 42 combined attempts against Estrada, Happ, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna

Happ, who will be on the mound Saturday, only had one caught stealing in eight attempts during the regular season. 

Russell Martin can only do so much, and he was awful throwing out baserunners this season, going 11-of-72 in that category for a 15 percent success rate

Cleveland hit well against left-handed pitching during the regular season, posting a collective .748 OPS, per Baseball-Reference.com. Davis will be in the starting lineup against a left-handed starter, as he was throughout the regular season, making him an integral piece if he can find a way on base. 

The Indians want to play a similar style to what the Royals did when they won the World Series last year. They can hit homers if necessary, but putting the ball in play and forcing the defense to throw them out is when they are at their best. 

Getting guys on base makes the Indians more lethal because of how well they run the bases as a collective whole. 

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Indians vs. Blue Jays: Keys for Each Team to Win ALCS Game 2

The Cleveland Indians struck first in the American League Championship Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, engineering an impressive 2-0 victory Friday at Progressive Field.

It was a continuation of a so-far unblemished postseason, which began with the Indians winning 3-0 against the Boston Red Sox in the division series.

For their part, the Jays ran into a wall after blasting past the AL Wild Card Game and sweeping the Texas Rangers in the ALDS

What can we glean from Friday’s action, and what are the keys for each club to claim Game 2, set for Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on TBS?

Limber up your commenting muscles and find out.

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Francisco Lindor Wows on October Stage as Indians Pitching Snags ALCS Advantage

When you look up Francisco Lindor’s page on Baseball-Reference.com, the first thing you notice at the top of the page is his big smile.

The first thing you see at the bottom of the page is what the site calls similarity scores, which is an attempt to match batters statistically to all the others who have played the game.

The two guys most similar to Lindor: Carlos Correa and Corey Seager.

Two of the four guys most similar through age 22: Troy Tulowitzki and Derek Jeter.

You’ve no doubt heard of all of them. You absolutely should know about Lindor, and you should have known about him a long time before the Cleveland Indians‘ kid shortstop took center stage in the American League Championship Series on Friday night.

As Pedro Martinez said on TBS a few minutes after the Indians’ 2-0 Game 1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays: “He looks like a veteran. He looks poised. Maybe he’s too young to realize how good he is.”

And maybe there are too many good young shortstops for the rest of us to fully grasp how special Lindor is. At least we all got a look Friday, when his sixth-inning home run off Marco Estrada provided the only runs in a game that went just the way the Indians hoped it would.

They got another outstanding start from Corey Kluber, who kept them from needing Andrew Miller in the fifth inning or even in the sixth. Miller appeared with one out in the seventh and did his thing, striking out five of the six batters he faced and clearing the dangerous middle of the Blue Jays lineup before Cody Allen appeared for the official save.

What really set it up, though, was the Lindor home run. By getting the Indians the lead, Lindor gave manager Terry Francona the freedom to run his bullpen exactly as planned.

The plan worked, and Lindor smiled his way through the postgame interviews.

“It went out,” he told MLB Network. “I’m not a power hitter. I wish I was.”

He’s not a power hitter, but he already has two home runs in four games in this postseason. He’s not a power hitter, but he bats third on a team that scored the second-most runs in the AL this season.

Lindor, who won’t turn 23 until after the World Series, batted third 152 times this season. That’s the most times any player that young has batted third for any playoff team, according to research through Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index.

The next two guys on that list: Stan Musial and Joe DiMaggio.

It’s far too early to compare Lindor to either of them, but it’s perfectly fair to compare him to Correa and Seager. Correa, who is 10 months younger, got the most attention among young shortstops last year (beating out Lindor for American League Rookie of the Year). Seager, five months younger, got the most attention this year.

Seager will get the spotlight back when the National League Championship Series begins Saturday night. With Seager’s Los Angeles Dodgers facing the Chicago Cubs, the NLCS will get the prime-time TV slot every night it and the ALCS overlap.

It’s nothing new for the Indians, who are plenty used to being overlooked. Despite their great regular season, they finished 28th in major league attendance (ahead of only the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays). They swept the Boston Red Sox in the division series, only to be overshadowed by the end of David Ortiz’s career.

They shared the stage only with the Blue Jays on Friday night, and America got to see a lot of what makes them so good.

There’s Kluber, one of the most unknown Cy Young Award winners in recent memory. He should be among the favorites again this season. There’s Miller, who might be the most important bullpen weapon any team has in this postseason or has had in any recent postseason.

Then there’s the lineup, which is deeper than you think and has that 22-year-old shortstop batting third. Yeah, the kid who caught scouts’ attention because he seemed to have so much fun playing the game—the kid who keeps right on smiling now.

“I’m happy to be in Cleveland right now,” he told MLB Network, flashing that smile one more time.

Cleveland, you can be sure, is happy to have him there.

   

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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Blue Jays vs. Indians: Game 1 Score and Twitter Reaction from 2016 MLB Playoffs

Stellar pitching from Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and a home run from Francisco Lindor gave the Cleveland Indians a 2-0 victory and early edge in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada was cruising through the first five innings. He gave up just four singles and had Cleveland hitters off-balance with an outstanding fastball-changeup combination. 

The Indians struck in the sixth with Jason Kipnis drawing a five-pitch walk. Lindor got down 0-2 in the count before waiting back on a changeup from Estrada that carried over the center field fence for a 2-0 lead on a night when balls had been dying in the outfield. 

That would be the lone blemish on Estrada’s resume for the evening. Toronto’s starter finished with a complete game, allowing just six hits, two runs with six strikeouts and one walk on 101 pitches. 

Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet.ca, Estrada’s loss was particularly tough because he did something no Toronto pitcher had done in 2016:

Per ESPN Stats & Info, it’s been nearly 20 years since the Indians have had a homer like the one Lindor provided:

Per Cespedes Family BBQ, it’s possible that you may have felt the earth shake wherever you were following Lindor’s blast:

Kluber continued his postseason magnificence for the Tribe. After throwing seven scoreless innings against Boston in the division series, the 2014 American League Cy Young winner added to his early playoff resume, with Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com providing his stat line so far this October:

The Blue Jays did have opportunities against Kluber that they were unable to take advantage of, particularly early. They had two runners on base in each of the first three innings, but they came up empty-handed. 

Falling behind didn’t appear to be a problem for Toronto hitters, with August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs noting they did something against Kluber virtually no one did in the regular season:

For the Blue Jays, though, their woes with runners in scoring position that disappeared against Texas in the division series came back Friday night. Per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, Toronto was 24th overall with a .249 average with runners in scoring position. 

The Blue Jays finished with seven hits, six of them singles. Edwin Encarnacion had the hardest-hit ball of the night, a frozen-rope double in the top of the first that sent Josh Donaldson to third base with one out. 

Kluber got out of it by striking out Jose Bautista, and Russell Martin grounded out to end the inning. In total, the Blue Jays went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. 

This was the perfect setup for Cleveland, as Kluber was able to work deep in the game, and Lindor’s blast allowed manager Terry Francona to use the bullpen exactly how he wanted. 

Andrew Miller relieved Kluber in the top of the seventh and proceeded to record five outs, doing so in pretty much the way you would expect, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:

After recording all of his outs via strikeout, MLB.com’s Andrew Simon noted Miller did something that hasn’t been done in 11 years:

Per ESPN’s Christopher Crawford, Miller has been otherworldly since 2013:

Following Miller’s exit, Cody Allen came in to close things out. He battled his command against the Red Sox in Game 3 on Monday, throwing 19 strikes on 40 pitches before ultimately getting the save. 

There were no such issues against the Blue Jays on this night for Allen. He needed just 11 pitches to record the save and leave the Indians three wins away from their first World Series appearance since 1997. 

Looking at Game 2, though, the Indians will likely have to get more out of their offense if they want to avoid going to Toronto tied at one game. Josh Tomlin will get the start in place of Trevor Bauer after the team announced Bauer suffered a cut on his pinkie finger that required stitches.

Francona’s management of the bullpen will be interesting because Miller did need over 30 pitches to record those five strikeouts, so he may not be available for as many outs as he was tonight. 

The Blue Jays just have to take advantage of their opportunities because they had a chance to blow this game open early. Kluber was able to work around trouble, but their bats will not go quietly, and manager John Gibbons didn’t have to use anyone out of his bullpen tonight. 

 

Postgame Reaction

Lindor’s trot around the bases allowed Kipnis to try explaining what it feels like when Cleveland’s star shortstop hits one over the fence. 

“The whole world turns into a trampoline,” Kipnis said, per ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Francona didn’t have a metaphor like that to describe Lindor, though he did offer his best summation of what makes the 22-year-old such a unique asset. 

“He’s got a ton of talent,” Francona said, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Gregor Chisholm. “I just think you can tell how much he enjoys playing the game. Shoot, if I had his ability, I’d feel confident, too.”

Lindor was also asked about hitting the homer, his second of the postseason, per Bastian and Chisholm:

Oh, man, it was unreal. First of all, I thought [center fielder Kevin Pillar] was going to catch it. As soon as it went out, I put my hands out and said, ‘Thank God.’ And I looked at the dugout and everybody was going insane. And the crowd today — unreal. I just tried to go with the flow. I celebrated like it was a walk-off.

Kluber, the other hero for Cleveland in Game 1, earned high marks from Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. 

“He’s got arguably the best right-hand breaking ball in the game,” Gibbons said, per Bastian and Chisholm. “And he kept us honest with enough fastballs. And he’s got that razor-blade slider that’s tough to do anything with. [It’s] a big strikeout pitch for him. He gets a lot of weak contact on them, really.”

Never one to accept credit for his own work, Kluber gave praise to the job done by Miller and Allen after he left the game. 

“If we can get deep in a ballgame and get a lead to our bullpen,” Kluber said, per Bastian and Chisholm, “I feel like we have a really good shot. Those guys have all been doing an unbelievable job down there [in the bullpen]. That’s our game planto try to get them a lead and let them go out and do their thing.”

It’s been a winning formula so far for the Indians. To get to the World Series, they must continue to do it.

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Devon Travis Injury: Updates on Blue Jays 2B’s Knee and Recovery

Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis left Friday’s ALCS matchup with the Cleveland Indians in the fifth inning with a knee injury. He has been ruled out for the rest of the postseason.

Continue for updates.


Travis Out for Remainder of Playoffs

Saturday, Oct. 15

Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reported Justin Smoak will take Travis’ spot on the ALCS roster.


Atkins Comments on Injury

Saturday, Oct. 15

There’s enough information to suggest that the injury has changed and there is more of an injury than just the bone bruise,” general manager Ross Atkins told reporters.

Atkins said Travis suffered a separate knee injury that was in the same area but independent of his previous injury. 


Travis’ Injury Comes at Terrible Time for Blue Jays

Travis had missed Games 2 and 3 of Toronto’s ALDS win over the Texas Rangers with a bone bruise in his knee. 

Darwin Barney replaced Travis during the ALDS but went hitless in seven at-bats. Ryan Goins was added to the ALCS roster after not appearing in the ALDS because the Jays wanted an extra infielder in case of an injury.

With Travis out, Toronto will be without one of its most important offensive weapons. He hit .300/.332/.454 with 11 home runs and 50 runs batted in during the regular season, his first full MLB campaign.

With the Jays attempting to avoid falling short in the postseason, losing Travis is a crushing blow.

                   

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.

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