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Free agency gets all the headlines this time of year in Major League Baseball, but a dreadful crop of talent for all 30 teams to choose from should boost interest and activity in the trade market over the winter. 

The end of November is often the calm before the storm, as MLB players and executives are making their final preparations for the winter meetings that will begin on Dec. 4. 

That is the key date to focus on for when a deluge of trades is likely to happen. Teams already have a strong idea of what their payroll will be for 2017 and how much they have to spend, though trades are more complex because they require teams to give up assets and money in order to improve. 

Given what the trade market could bring this hot-stove season, here are the hottest rumors two weeks away from the winter meetings. 

McCutchen’s Market

Coming off the worst season of his career, Pittsburgh Pirates star Andrew McCutchen finds himself at a crossroads. He’s only 30 years old and finished in the top five of National League MVP voting each year from 2012-15, so there is reason to be optimistic about a turnaround next season.

Other teams are aware of this, which is why they have called the Pirates about McCutchen. 

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported the Seattle Mariners inquired about McCutchen earlier this offseason, but whatever talks the two sides had did not advance. 

The Pirates may not be able to wait around for McCutchen to figure things out in 2017. His salary will be $14 million, per Spotrac, which is a manageable figure for most teams. 

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Pirates’ payroll has exceeded $90 million the previous two seasons and their obligations for next season when factoring in estimated arbitration salaries. They also have to supplement the roster with free agents. 

The Pirates are a small-market team, so having one player eating up a significant portion of the payroll severely limits what they are capable of adding around him. They also have a nearly ready center field prospect in Austin Meadows, who ended this season in Triple-A. 

ESPN.com’s Keith Law highlighted another reason it could be enticing for the Pirates to move McCutchen now:

Trading McCutchen, as painful as it might be, could be a big retooling move for the Pirates, who still have a strong farm system and could use Cutch to keep the team competitive without having to go through a few losing seasons first. There should be 20 clubs lined up to make offers, as anyone could take him and put him in left field, where I expect his defense to be plus and his offense, at pre-2016 levels, to still make him an above-average or better regular.

McCutchen hit .256/.336/.430 with a career-high 143 strikeouts in 598 at-bats. His defense fell off a cliff, with FanGraphs’ defensive runs saved noting he cost the Pirates 28 runs in center field. 

There is an injury explanation for McCutchen’s offensive performance. He had a right thumb issue that flared up in May and June, and any issue with the hand is going to impact bat speed and power. 

The defensive fall is more worrisome since it could be an indication McCutchen is losing a step now that he’s reached 30. 

If the thumb issue is a problem in the rearview mirror, McCutchen’s offense should at least approach his 2012-15 levels and make his $14 million salary a relative bargain. He’s exponentially more valuable if he can play center, as opposed to moving to a corner, but the bat will play anywhere. 

The Pirates certainly don’t want to trade McCutchen because of how important he’s been to the franchise, but they also can’t afford to hang onto him one year too long when his market could completely collapse if he has another down season. 

The Mariners may be the most recent team linked to McCutchen, but when the winter meetings begin, any team that might think it needs an outfielder should be calling the Pirates to see how serious they are about engaging in trade talks. 

The Kinsler Complication

The Detroit Tigers could be at the epicenter of trade discussions this offseason. General manager Al Avila said in October the team has been operating “way above its means for some time,” per MLB.com’s Jason Beck. 

Owner Mike Ilitch has been willing to spend freely for the last five years in hopes of bringing Detroit a World Series title, but that strategy has limitations. The Tigers are now saddled with a lot of large multiyear contracts for players well into their 30s. 

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are still terrific players. However, they are almost impossible to move because they will make a combined $172 million through 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and Cabrera is signed through 2023 (excluding option years), when he will be 40 years old. 

Ian Kinsler becomes one of the most valuable trade chips for the Tigers because he’s still a star player who is signed to a modest deal that pays him $11 million in 2017 with a $10 million team option for 2018, per Spotrac. 

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers have had talks regarding Kinsler. 

Things would not be as simple as merely agreeing on pieces being moved if the two sides were to strike a deal.

Rosenthal noted Kinsler has a limited no-trade clause with 10 teams on the list, including the Dodgers. Kinsler’s agent, Jay Franklin, told Rosenthal his client would be open to agreeing to a deal under one condition.

“If one of the 10 teams happens to call and wants to talk about it, we’re open to talking about it,” Franklin said. “(But) they’re going to have to extend him for us to waive the no-trade.”

The problem with extending Kinsler is he will turn 35 in June. He’s coming off a strong 2016 in which he hit .288/.348/.484 with 28 homers and won his first Gold Glove. 

As a result of that success, Kinsler could and should be seeking a multiyear extension. But how many more years can he realistically be expected to have anywhere near that kind of production?

The Dodgers would be a perfect fit because they need a second baseman with Chase Utley being a free agent, and they certainly have the money to do whatever they want. Yet this front office, led by Andrew Friedman, let Zack Greinke walk last winter after he had a 1.66 ERA in 2015. 

Wacha’s Last Stand

When Michael Wacha burst onto the scene in 2013, the natural assumption was he would be the St. Louis Cardinals’ No. 2 starter and heir apparent to Adam Wainwright as the ace. 

Three years later, Wacha’s career has been a disappointment due to a series of injuries that have hindered his performance. 

Perhaps as an indication the Cardinals don’t want to wait around for Wacha to regain his 2013 form, Rosenthal reported the team has “floated” his name around in trade discussions. 

However, Rosenthal added “it’s unlikely they would get much for a pitcher who has a history of shoulder trouble.”

Last year was rock-bottom for Wacha. He had a 5.09 ERA with 159 hits allowed in 138 innings over 27 appearances (24 starts). He missed one month from Aug. 8 through Sept. 14 with a shoulder issue. 

Per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Wacha and the Cardinals doctors worked together to develop a new rehab strategy to get him healthy. The results didn’t show upon his return, as he allowed 13 earned runs in 6.2 innings. 

One advantage Wacha has for any team potentially interested is age. He’s only 25 years old and under team control through 2019. His struggles last season will help keep his arbitration salary down next season, with Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors estimating he will make $3.2 million. 

Wacha is just one year removed from making 30 starts with a 3.38 ERA and posting a career-high 2.3 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs.

He may never be the pitcher who looked like an ace and carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his first playoff start in 2013, but a low-cost starting pitcher is the most valuable commodity in baseball. 

The Cardinals are smart to dangle Wacha out there to see if any market develops. If it does, they can deal him without hesitation. If it doesn’t, they will do everything in their power to make sure he starts 30 games once again.

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The World Baseball Classic is back—or it will be this spring, with the fourth installment of the international baseball tournament scheduled to kick off on Mar. 6 and the championship game slated for Mar. 22 at Dodger Stadium.

The United States team enters the upcoming tournament still searching for its first World Baseball Classic title.

In fact, it has yet to finish higher than fourth, with that result coming back in 2009. It also has an eighth-place finish in 2006 and a sixth-place finish in 2013 to its credit.

Japan claimed the first two WBC titles, with the Dominican Republic besting Puerto Rico last time around to give the tournament a new defending champion.

So what will it take for the U.S. team to come out on top?

Convincing more of the country’s elite-level talent to participate would be a good first step.

That strategy is already off to a rocky start, though, as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were both left off the preliminary 50-man roster and appear unlikely to participate, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

However, there’s still a wealth of talent that could find its way onto the Team USA roster, and what follows is one attempt at assembling a U.S. team capable of winning it all.

Note: The 2013 U.S. team featured 15 pitchers (four starters and 11 relievers) and 13 position players (three catchers, six infielders and four outfielders). While those roster parameters are not a requirement, they were used as a blueprint in the following exercise.

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The New York Yankees need a starting pitcher. In past winters, that would have led to their going after only the best options, and damn the cost!

But since they need to be smart this winter, let’s help point them toward Rich Hill.

In truth, it can be hard to tell which direction the Yankees are leaning in. The offseason rumor mill has featured whispers about their continuing the sell-off they kicked into high gear over the summer. Other times, it’s featured whispers about their buying up the hot-stove season’s biggest names.

Hey, even general manager Brian Cashman doesn’t seem settled on a specific direction.

“We have been walking the tightrope for a few years, and now it is (making decisions for) 2017 vs. ’18, ’19 and ’20,” he told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “Some decisions we make will be for the future and some for the present, and they might contradict each other. We are doing both.”

However, there are things that put the Yankees more in a position to add than subtract.

For one, they’re already loaded with young talent. They entered 2016 with a respectable farm system. After trades of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran, Jim Callis of MLB.com was calling it arguably MLB’s best at the end of July.

Also, it’s partially thanks to that young talent the Yankees finished 2016 stronger than they started it. They went from 44-44 before the All-Star break to 40-34 after it. They got a big boost from catcher Gary Sanchez and smaller ones from first baseman Tyler Austin and right fielder Aaron Judge.

Those three are lined up for everyday jobs in 2017. So is first baseman Greg Bird, who missed 2016 following shoulder surgery. With veterans such as Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley rounding things out, the Yankees lineup is in solid shape.

The starting rotation, however, is a different story. It’s Masahiro Tanaka on top and then a series of age (see: CC Sabathia) and effectiveness (see: Michael Pineda) question marks.

This bring us, at long last, back to Hill. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, he’s on the Yankees’ radar as a potential fix for what ails them:

This sort of feels like classic Yankees. They’re used to targeting only the best free agents, and there’s little question Hill is the best starting pitcher on the open market. Nobody else even comes close to the 2.00 ERA the well-traveled left-hander has over the last two seasons.

But the caveats here are obvious.

Hill is talented, but he’s not durable. He’s 36 years old and has pitched just 626.1 major league innings, postseason included. He’s had everything from labrum surgery to Tommy John surgery to, most recently, lingering blister issues.

Hill is also the best starter on the open market in part because it’s a terrible market for free-agent starters—Craig Edwards of FanGraphs has the rundown on that.

This has gotten the trade rumor mill spinning at warp speed. A sampling of the biggest names supposedly available includes Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer and Zack Greinke.

With only Tanaka and Ellsbury still under long-term, big-money contracts, the Yankees have enough financial flexibility to take on any of those names. For reasons referenced above, they also have the prospect depth to work out a satisfactory deal.

But the question the Yankees are facing is the same one the Atlanta Braves have in their own search for starting pitching: Is now the right time to abandon the long game?

The point of the Yankees’ sell-off was to give in to the reality that they were past due to try to build a winner from the ground up. And not a moment too soon. That’s how championship teams must be built in an era that, as Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight and others noted, is dominated by young talent.

After their summer sell-off, it’s already possible to see a perennial World Series contender in the Yankees’ not-so-distant future. But that vision would be disrupted if they were to take a good chunk of that young talent and send it to another team for an ace.

That would be fine if it made the Yankees a World Series contender right now. But that’s a stretch. FanGraphs has them projected as a .500 team in 2017. That puts them more than just one ace away from being favorites. To get where they need to be would require trading for an ace and then making more deals or big-money signings.

Either way, the bright future that exists now would go up in smoke. And if the Yankees’ efforts to win in the short term failed, they’d find themselves back at square one ready to rebuild all over again.

Which is why they should just sign Hill.

It’s going to cost good money to sign him. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and the MLB Trade Rumors crew both have Hill pegged for a three-year, $50 million contract. But on one bright side, Hill isn’t tied to draft-pick compensation. Signing him will only cost money, which the Yankees have plenty of.

On another bright side, the risk of signing him does come with enough potential reward to justify it.

He hasn’t carved out that 2.00 ERA since 2015 by accident. He’s been among the league’s most aggressive strike-throwers with stuff that has featured more spin than any other starter’s offerings, per Baseball Savant. Thus, his rate of 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and .507 opponents’ OPS over the last two seasons.

In the short term, adding Hill would give the Yankees a fallback ace in case Tanaka opts out of his contract after 2017. Whether or not that happens, Hill would also help stabilize a rotation that should be welcoming prospects such as James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo and Dillon Tate over the next two seasons.

In the longer term, Hill’s contract would come off the books at a convenient time. After 2019, Sanchez, Austin and Judge will be arbitration-eligible for the first time and due for big raises. Presumably, even more Yankees prospects will be ready for arbitration raises in ensuing years.

The one thing adding Hill wouldn’t necessarily do is put the Yankees in the World Series conversation for the next three seasons. But the attitude they must take is that staying relevant while keeping their dream of a long-term powerhouse alive would be good enough.

Hill may no longer be around by the time that powerhouse finally arrives. But if signing him proves to be instrumental in helping the team get there, the Yankees will be glad they did it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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It’s November. That means turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie and Evan Longoria to the Los Angeles Dodgers rumors.

Here’s one, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi:

OK, that’s less a rumor and more informed speculation. And maybe Longoria-to-L.A. talk isn’t quite as inevitable as Thanksgiving.

The Dodgers trading for Longoria makes a share of sense, though. It’s also not a new idea.

Rumblings about the Tampa Bay Rays third baseman heading to Southern California cropped up at the 2016 trade deadline, per Morosi. At the time, however, the Dodgers employed Justin Turner at the hot corner.

Now, Turner is a free agent. The Dodgers have a hole to fill. Cue the Longoria chatter.

“Our most acute needs as we head into the offseason are the roles previously occupied by our two free agents,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “We have to figure out what we’re doing at third base, and figure out an anchor for the back of the pen.”

Longoria is more than just any third baseman. He’s a three-time All-Star coming off a superlative season that saw him hit .273 with a career-high 36 home runs and 98 RBI.

He has ties to Friedman, who was general manager in Tampa Bay when the then-Devil Rays drafted Longoria with the third overall pick in 2006. Plus, he was born and raised in SoCal.

Longoria has six years and about $100 million left on his deal, but the Dodgers have baseball’s highest payroll. The Rays will likely expect a strong return of young talent, but the Dodgers have a deep farm system.

The dots connect. In fact, it seems like a borderline perfect marriage.

Here’s the central question, though: Is Longoria preferable to Turner? The Dodgers could simply re-sign their old third baseman, after all.

To begin, let’s stack the two players’ 2016 stats next to each other:

There’s remarkable symmetry, especially when you consider both players are right-handed swingers who were born in Southern California within a year of each other.

If we zoom back a tad, however, Turner gains an edge.

Between 2014 and 2016, Turner’s WAR (12.8) was higher than Longoria’s (11.9) by FanGraphs’ measure. Turner has also been a superior defender over the past two seasons, posting a 16.7 ultimate zone rating compared to Longoria’s 7.7.

Turning to the projection systems, Steamer foretells a .263/.324/.460 slash line for Longoria and a .285/.354/.466 line for Turner in 2017. 

That’s not to suggest Longoria is chopped liver. He’d slot nicely into a Dodgers lineup that features reigning National League Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, powerful center fielder Joc Pederson and veteran pieces such as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catcher Yasmani Grandal. 

In terms of dollars, Turner should command more than the $13 million Longoria is owed in 2017 and may well eclipse his average annual value for the next few seasons in a weak free-agent class. Something in line with the five years, $95 million the Boston Red Sox gave Pablo Sandoval in 2014 seems attainable.

Longoria, on the other hand, will cost more than cash. The Dodgers will also have to part with high-upside prospects to land him.

The small-market Rays are always seeking to shed salary, but even if the Dodgers eat all the money, they’ll have to dip into their MiLB stash.

That’s where the scales truly tip toward Turner. If he and Longoria are roughly the same player, why give up payroll and trade chips for one when the other will require only money?

Los Angeles will have to battle other suitors, possibly including the archrival San Francisco Giants, per Morosi. 

The Dodgers should make Turner a priority, though, and consider Longoria a distant plan B. The best move isn’t always the splashiest or the one that commands the most headlines.

Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

To put it in Thanksgiving terms: Longoria is the stuffing, Turner is the turkey. Gobble, gobble.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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It’s been 21 years since Major League Baseball exited its last work stoppage.

Oh, how I’d love to tack an “and counting” on the end of that sentence. Instead, time may be counting down to baseball’s next work stoppage.

The majors’ collective bargaining agreement is due to expire Dec. 1. The thinking has long been that MLB and the MLB Players Association—in keeping with their recent history of peaceful relations—would hammer out a new agreement before then.

Not so fast, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported Tuesday:

According to Rosenthal, the owners, represented by Commissioner Rob Manfred, are growing frustrated with the slow pace of discussions on the part of the players, represented by union chief Tony Clark. And so, they’re preparing to vote on a lockout if a new deal doesn’t materialize by deadline day.

This is obviously a threat, presumably leaked from the owners in an attempt to light a fire under the players. Such things tend to happen in situations like these. Perhaps the only surprise is that it came so late in the game.

But as late in the game as it is, there is still time. Counting Tuesday and deadline day, the two sides have 10 days to work something out.

“In terms of trying to make a deal, 10 days is plenty of time,” Manfred told Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

To boot, the Dec. 1 deadline is more of a target date than a true deadline. As Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs noted last week, the league and the union can keep talking beyond that date if they so desire.

All the same, there’s no denying the tenor of the situation has changed. And not for the better.

While the owners may be frustrated with the pace of talks, the sticking points between the two sides are more specific.

According to Rosenthal, one involves the competitive balance tax. Another involves changes to the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

The big one, however, is the idea for a draft for international amateurs. Manfred has been lobbying for that ever since he stepped into Bud Selig’s shoes in January 2015, typically with the same talking points.

“I am of the view that at some point, for the good of the game, for the good of competitive balance, we are going to have an international draft,” Manfred said last spring, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via MLB Trade Rumors).

Rosenthal reported the owners are willing to scrap the qualifying-offer system to get an international draft. At first, that would seem to be welcome news for the players.

After all, the qualifying-offer system has been a frequent source of controversy since it was implemented in 2012. Players who reject the one-year offers (valued at $17.2 million this winter) are tied to draft-pick compensation in free agency, which has been a major drain on some players’ value.

And yet, it seems the players aren’t motivated enough by the proposal to do away with qualifying offers to accept an international draft. Even though they’re not obligated to go to bat for the amateurs who would be affected, Rosenthal reported the players are strongly opposed to the idea.

Why? Because it’s not really about competitive balance, as Manfred said.

It’s about money. As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote Nov. 11, an international draft would “give owners a systematic way to control their labor costs, meaning less money for players and more money for owners.”

The system MLB has in place for international amateurs assigns teams bonus pools that vary in size based on where they finished in the standings the prior season. Certainly, it’s not an ideal system.

But for now, it at least gives teams a chance to negotiate with any player they desire. That’s partially why some are willing to accept the penalties for exceeding their bonus pools. The most prominent example of that was when the Boston Red Sox broke the bank for Yoan Moncada in March 2015.

Meanwhile, consider the draft baseball does have. Its nature prohibits teams from negotiating with whomever they’d like to and, since 2012, has put limits on how much they can spend. For the owners, it’s a perfect cost-control system. No wonder they want to replicate it for international players.

Hypothetically, less money spent on amateurs means more money for owners to spend on established players. But the union must be aware that’s not how things have been playing out.

In fact, the players’ share of baseball’s pie has been trending downward at an alarming rate. As Grow covered last spring, player payroll has gone from a peak of 56 percent of the league’s total revenue in 2002 to just 38 percent in 2014. More and more, the wealth hasn’t been trickling down.

It’s not a matter of the money not being there. As reported by Maury Brown of Forbes, MLB revenues hit a new height of $9.5 billion last season. That was up from $9 billion in 2014.

What has changed is how teams prefer to spend their money.

They’re more wary of spending in free agency than they used to be. In the modern performance-enhancing drugs testing era, players tend to be near or past the end of their primes when they finally hit free agency. They’re not good long-term investments.

As for the young guys, their costs have been controlled for many years by the arbitration system. And even when they sign big-money extensions, they tend to be for far less than what they would have earned on the open market—see Mike Trout signing for six years and $144.5 million.

So while ditching qualifying offers in exchange for an international draft may seem like a fair trade, the players understandably aren’t convinced since the owners would swap out a relatively minor cost-control device for the latest in a series of major cost-control devices.

“We aren’t giving them something that affects 30 percent of big leaguers and probably 50 percent of minor leaguers in exchange for something that affects less than 20 players every year, especially guys who are staring $17 million in the face,” one source told Rosenthal.

Understand, all this bad noise doesn’t mean the players can’t be moved to make a deal before deadline day. As one source told Rosenthal, the remaining sticking points are “nothing that reasonable and creative people can’t resolve.”

But it’s also understandable why one player said the union “will fight” if pushed. The system hasn’t been unkind to players recently, but it’s been a lot kinder to the owners. Why roll over and let the trend continue?

If a lockout does happen, the good news for fans is that only the business side of the game would be interrupted. The hot-stove season would definitely get boring. But unlike the 1994-95 strike, no games would be in immediate danger. Much less the World Series.

The optics, however, would not be good. Baseball is swimming in cash, with strong attendance numbers and a smash-hit World Series in its wake. The sport is healthy.

Best not to let anything challenge that health.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Major League Baseball owners and players are discussing a new collective bargaining agreement ahead of the Dec. 1 expiration of the current deal.

Continue for updates.

Latin American Players Reportedly Set to Fight Potential International Draft

Monday, Nov. 28

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported a “significant number” of Latin American players are expected to be at Monday’s bargaining session to fight the international draft.

Passan noted that “Latin representation at union meetings has been an issue in the past,” but the divisiveness of the issue “spurred interest.” Passan called the move a “bold play” by the players’ union, saying “the implication is it is putting a line in the sand” on the international draft.

MLB, Union Reportedly Make Progress in Talks

Wednesday, Nov. 23

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported negotiations “have progressed this week, to the point where sources finally are expressing optimism that an agreement can be reached before owners impose a lockout.

“Two sources who had spoken with both sides told ESPN.com on Wednesday that they now sense there is ‘a path to a deal,’ following negotiations Tuesday that stretched into the night.” 

On Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the owners were considering locking out the players if the two sides failed to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement before the current deal expires on Dec. 1.

Multiple Sticking Points Holding Up New CBA

Rosenthal noted such a move would end baseball’s streak of 21 straight years of labor peace.

A lockout in the offseason would impact roster decisions, such as free-agent signings and trades. Rosenthal did say the winter meetings could still happen from Dec. 4-8, but there wouldn’t be “the usual frenzy of major league activity.”

The threat of the lockout looms over Tony Clark, who heads the players’ union, and MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred in their first time in their current roles. Clark replaced the late Michael Weiner, but Rosenthal noted Manfred served as the lead negotiator for MLB in the last three collective bargaining agreements before taking over as commissioner.

Fans hoping the two sides can avoid a lockout can look toward Manfred’s recent history of serving as lead negotiator in times of labor peace as something of a positive. What’s more, the commissioner told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, “In terms of trying to make a deal, 10 days is plenty of time.”

Sherman also said the two sides negotiated until late Tuesday afternoon and will continue doing so while the players attend their annual meeting from Monday through Wednesday in Dallas.

According to Rosenthal, owners are frustrated with how slow the discussions from the players’ union have been, noting “a number of significant issues remain unresolved.” He also quoted an anonymous player who said, “We are not afraid of a lockout.”

Rosenthal broke down a few of the issues holding up negotiations, including draft-pick compensation and the potential implementation of an international draft.

In the current system, teams lose a draft pick when they sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer. If draft-pick compensation were removed, there would be unrestricted free agency and teams would theoretically be more willing to sign marquee players without fearing the loss of a draft pick.

According to Rosenthal, the owners offered to eliminate the draft-pick compensation if they could implement an international draft, but the players opposed the draft “in part because foreign-born amateurs do not have the same leverage and opportunities as their U.S.-born counterparts, including college.”

Rosenthal also pointed to the competitive-balance tax and the Joint Drug Agreement as other issues the two sides are “at odds over” as negotiations continue.

Despite the potential for a lockout, Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports’ Big League Stew cautioned that a week before the Dec. 1 deadline is the ideal time for a source on the owners’ side to leak the threat in hopes of players caving on some demands.

Cwik also acknowledged there is plenty of money at stake that could help a deal get done sooner rather than later. 

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Veteran catcher Jason Castro reached an agreement Tuesday with the Minnesota Twins on a new contract.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports cited a source and reported the news. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported that it was a three-year, $24.5 million deal.

Although Castro’s overall statistics, including a career .232 average, don’t jump off the page, it’s important to remember evaluating catchers requires grading on a curve. The number of impact hitters at the position is limited, which makes his power potential more valuable.   

The 29-year-old backstop has racked up double-digit home runs in four straight seasons despite not playing more than 126 games in any campaign. His best season came in 2013, when he finished with 18 long balls and a .350 on-base percentage.

Those types of numbers are hard to find at the catcher spot, and that created a little more intrigue around his status entering the offseason, though he had a .307 OBP with 11 homers in 2016.

In September, he didn’t rule out a return to the Astros, but he made it clear he wanted to explore the possibilities, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.

“It’s kind of a weird feeling coming down to the end here,” Castro said. “It’s been a great six-and-a-half years here, and I’ve really enjoyed everything about it. But the future’s kind of up in the air, so we’ll see what happens.”

In the end, Castro decided it was time for a change of scenery after spending his entire career so far in Houston. The Astros may look to move Evan Gattis behind the plate to fill the void because it’ll be easier to fill a hole at designated hitter than it would be at catcher.

Catchers always require some additional off days due to the wear and tear of the position, but Castro still needs to stay more involved to make the new deal pay off. He played in just 113 games last season, compared to 139 for the Kansas City Royals‘ Salvador Perez, a top-tier option.

That said, it’s still a solid investment for the Twins given the catcher’s power upside. They’d like to see him move back closer to those 2013 numbers going forward, though.

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Like the action on the field, Major League Baseball doesn’t always follow the offseason script outsiders anticipate.

Big-market clubs don’t always make the biggest splashes. And teams we expect to stay silent sometimes emerge as the offseason’s biggest surprises. So as we embark on a winter that could see an unusual number of trades, let’s take a look at which teams could come up with unexpected hot-stove moves.

Could those clubs end up doing the same once the 2017 season ends?

Begin Slideshow

Major League Baseball’s offseason has already seen some action, but things will pick up after Thanksgiving as every team and free agent prepares for the winter meetings in December. 

Even though players are free to sign deals right now, the marquee names are most likely to wait until everyone converges on Maryland, where it’s easy to get more people in a room to try to ignite a bidding war to drive up prices. 

While a lot of things will change even before the meetings start Dec. 4, here are the latest rumblings for some of this year’s top sluggers. 

Shopping at Napoli’s

Coming off two injury-plagued seasons in 2014-15, Mike Napoli’s days as an impact power hitter in the middle of a good lineup appeared to be over. 

After waiting until January to sign a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Napoli proceeded to have a fine bounce-back season with career highs in games played (150), home runs (34) and RBI (101). 

Napoli has also become a cult figure in Cleveland thanks to the “Party at Napoli’s” rallying cry. With all of that going for him, it’s not a surprise the Indians want to bring him back next season. 

Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported on Sept. 29 that the team hopes to work out a deal with Napoli, while he’s seeking a multiyear deal. 

With free agency now in full swing, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Houston Astros are taking a look at Napoli to fill their void at first base and designated hitter. 

Napoli, who turned 35 on Oct. 31, will likely be looking for something resembling long-term security coming off a solid 2016 season. He is a player with limitations that could hurt his market, notably on defense. FanGraphs calculated he cost the Indians four runs at first base in 2016. 

The Astros have already shown they are going all-in to win in 2017 by signing Josh Reddick and trading for Brian McCann. Signing Napoli would be another indication they aren’t going to wait around for the rest of the American League West to strike.

The Indians know the value Napoli brings to the middle of their order and in the clubhouse, but they may opt to use whatever money they have to spend this offseason to address a more pressing need—center field. 

With the Astros motivated and willing to spend money, they appear to be Napoli’s best bet for a new home in 2017. 

Prediction: Napoli signs with Astros

Encarnacion’s Market

The market for Napoli will surely be directly impacted by what happens with Edwin Encarnacion, who serves the same role as a power-hitting first baseman and designated hitter. 

The key difference is Encarnacion, despite turning 34 in January, is in position to ask for a deal of at least three or four years because he’s posted five straight seasons with at least a .350 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage. 

The Toronto Blue Jays, who have given Encarnacion a stage to showcase his hitting skills since 2010, appeared to be out of the market for the slugger after signing Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33 million deal. 

However, per Heyman, the Jays have made Encarnacion an offer of $80 million over four years.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters last week (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca) that Morales’ presence would likely impact what they were able to do with Encarnacion:

“It makes things slightly less likely for Edwin, but doesn’t impact us on Jose (Bautista) in any way. We still feel that both are realistic for us. When you sign someone like Kendrys Morales, that does decrease the likelihood of Edwin coming back to the Blue Jays, but it by no means eliminates that possibility.”

The bad news for Toronto—which is good news for Encarnacion—is Heyman mentioned the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have also been connected to the three-time All-Star. 

The Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees have three of the deepest pockets in MLB. If Encarnacion’s camp is able to open up a bidding war that includes at least two of those teams, the Blue Jays would likely end up exceeding what money they have available. 

The Red Sox have always made the most sense as a landing spot for Encarnacion because David Ortiz retired and they need to find someone capable of providing the production Big Papi did. 

One advantage for the Red Sox is they have so much young position player talent that they can rotate into the DH spot if they don’t want to spend big money on a player entering his mid-30s. 

The Yankees don’t really make sense unless they believe competing for a playoff spot in 2017 is viable. The Rangers did lose Prince Fielder to retirement last season and Mitch Moreland had a .298 on-base percentage as the primary first baseman. 

Given how aggressive the Astros have already been this offseason, the Rangers need to issue a response of their own.

Spending big money on players over 30 has gotten them into some trouble recently, like trading for Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo, but Encarnacion doesn’t have to play a position to provide value and he’s appeared in at least 140 games four times in the last five seasons. 

Prediction: Encarnacion signs with Rangers

Bye-Bye, Joey Bats

Sticking with the Blue Jays, Bautista is their other big free agent who could end up going elsewhere. 

Despite what Atkins told reporters, Heyman reported on Thursday that the Jays “do not seem at all interested in Bautista beyond the draft pick they’ll be getting if/when he signs elsewhere.”

Bautista’s free agency is one of the most fascinating test cases of any player available this winter. He’s still a star in name, but his performance and body have started to break down in recent years.

Another problem for Bautista is age. He’s 36 years old and virtually incapable of playing in the outfield anymore, costing the Blue Jays eight runs by FanGraphs‘ metrics last season.

In February, TSN’s Rick Westhead reported Bautista was seeking $150 million over five years on his next contract. Bautista denied the report, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

Whether Bautista wanted a deal like that, he will be lucky to get a contract with a total value of $50 million this offseason, and even that will only happen if he can find a team willing to give him three years. 

Heyman noted one rival agent told him Bautista should have accepted Toronto’s qualifying offer that would have paid him $17.2 million in 2017. It will likely be a higher average annual salary than the six-time All-Star will get elsewhere.

Trying to find a market for Bautista is especially difficult because if he can’t play a position—or even gets pushed to first base—the number of teams that might pursue him dwindles dramatically. 

Heyman reported on Nov. 10 that the Red Sox reached out to Bautista’s camp during the general manager meetings. 

Even though Bautista isn’t the hitter Encarnacion is at this point, he would actually be a better fit for the Red Sox. He likely isn’t going to cost as much in terms of years and dollars. He’s coming off an injury-marred 2016, so the Red Sox can shift him to DH in place of Ortiz and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. 

Plus, with all of Boston’s young talent already in place and other players like Yoan Moncada likely available at some point in 2017, the Red Sox don’t need Bautista to anchor their lineup because they can score 800 runs falling out of bed. 

Prediction: Bautista signs with Red Sox

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s only fitting that the trade chatter on baseball’s rumor mill has begun to look like the dinner table at Thanksgiving: A veritable smorgasbord of options to choose from for us to fill the empty space in our bellies or, in the case of our favorite teams, the empty spaces on their rosters.

From former Most Valuable Players and All-Star relievers to versatile veterans and still-developing youngsters, there seems to be at least one potential trade chip that could fill any need a team may have on the diamond.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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