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In a winter during which aces are in short supply, the hot-stove trade market seems to revolve around Chris Sale.

And he’s not even the best thing on the market.

Let’s make a case for the Chicago White Sox’s other left-handed stud: Jose Quintana. He’s also good, and he may also be available as the White Sox seek to course-correct after four straight losing seasons.

“We aren’t approaching this offseason thinking we can make a couple of short-term tweaks to put us in position to win on a sustainable basis,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Nov. 8, via Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. “We intend to make a firmer commitment to a direction to put ourselves in a better long-term position.”

Dating back to a September report from Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball, there’s been trade speculation about Sale and Quintana for a while now. But be warned: They may not be equals in terms of availability.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported Friday the White Sox are “willing to deal any player who has fewer than four years of team control.” With a contract with options through 2019, the 27-year-old Sale matches that description. With a contract with options through 2020, the also-27-year-old Quintana does not.

“It leads me to believe they’d like to hold on to him,” one GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last week. “Sale was mentioned, [Carlos] Rodon was mentioned and all the others, but not Quintana.”

But with no true No. 1 starters available in free agency, it’s not hard to imagine the White Sox being overwhelmed enough by an offer for Quintana to say yes. Some teams may be even more interested in him than they are in Sale.

With $39.5 million owed to him over the next three years, Sale is affordable. With a maximum of $38.85 million—his 2020 option gets a boost if he wins or places high in Cy Young Award voting—owed to him, Quintana is just as affordable over the next four seasons. And keep in mind, he’s only about two months older than Sale.

Then there’s the matter of their talent.

Sale has a lot of that, earning five straight All-Star nods and four straight top-five Cy Young finishes on the strength of sizzling stuff and pinpoint command. But in terms of WAR, Quintana has been the more valuable pitcher in each of the last two seasons:

Quintana garnered that edge despite a lesser workload, as he’s pitched 414.1 innings to Sale’s 435.1. But Quintana has been more effective, posting a 3.28 ERA to Sale’s 3.37 ERA.

Sale obviously can’t blame the ballpark he pitches in, the defense he pitches in front of or the competition he pitches to for those disadvantages. Other teams know that.

It’d also be fair for them to question if the divide between Sale and Quintana could get bigger going forward.

Sale opened the door enough in 2016 for doubts to creep in, after all. His strikeout rate went from trending ever upward to plummeting to “just” 9.3 per nine innings. He also lost nearly two mph off his average fastball from the year before, going from 94.5 mph to 92.8 mph.

Sale said in May that this was by design, telling Scott Merkin of MLB.com that “not throwing every single pitch as hard as I can every inning” was a change he wanted to make.

But as he gets closer to the big 3-0, the fear has to be that Sale could lose even more velocity and tumble further from his days as a strikeout specialist. How he would fare as a pitch-to-contact guy with less than electrifying stuff is a big unknown.

Meanwhile, such an unknown doesn’t exist with Quintana.

While Sale’s velocity has become a question mark, Quintana’s velocity held steady in the mid-91 mph range from 2013 to 2015 before peaking at 92.1 mph in 2016. That’s a sign he hasn’t already used all his best bullets.

Arguably just as good of a sign is that increased velocity hasn’t made Quintana accustomed to a strikeout habit he might not maintain. He’s better than he used to be, but he’s only been about an average strikeout artist since 2013. For the most part, he gets by on command and deception instead.

His 2.0 walks per nine innings since 2014 provides a picture of how good his command has become. Brooks Baseball provides additional pictures, showing how he works one side of the zone with his four-seamer and the other with his sinker and how he buries his curveballs below the knees.

As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs highlighted in May, one thing Quintana’s curve has going for it is a massive velocity difference from his fastball. It was 14.4 mph in 2016. That makes it better than the average hook when it comes to changing speeds, which is yet another challenge hitters must overcome.

Beyond the decent amount of whiffs he gets, one of the benefits of Quintana’s approach is good contact management. Per Baseball Savant, he’s been especially better than average at stifling hard contact on fly balls and line drives over the last two seasons:

This explains not just how Quintana keeps the ball in the yard so well, but also why his contact-heavy approach wasn’t sunk by a bad White Sox defense in 2015 or a mediocre White Sox defense in 2016.

Long story short: Quintana doesn’t need to miss bats to be a hard guy to hit. His excellence is not based on the dominance of his stuff, a la Sale, but instead on how he uses it. That’s something he should keep up even as he ages over the next four seasons.

Mind you, the price to acquire those four seasons isn’t going to be cheap. Last week, I explored how the White Sox are in a position to demand a collection of elite prospects in a Sale trade. Quintana’s talent and the extra year on his contract put them in a position to demand even more for the Colombia native.

The trade-off, if you will, is a chance to get an equally good pitcher for longer. If Quintana ages as well as he should, it could even mean getting a better pitcher for longer.

Sounds like a good deal, no?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Justin Verlander and Boston Red Sox fans may not be on the best terms right now. After Verlander lost the American League Cy Young Award to Boston sinkerballer Rick Porcello, Verlander’s fiancee, Kate Upton, voiced her displeasure via Twitter [warning: NSFW language].

While Upton’s and, subsequently, Verlander’s beef was mostly with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters, Porcello and Sox nation were unavoidably swept up in the controversy. 

Here’s something that would surely quash the issue: Verlander suiting up for the Red Sox next season.

It’s only speculation at this point. We know, however, that the Detroit Tigers are “open-minded” about trading veterans to shed payroll, as general manager Al Avila said on MLB Now (via MLB.com). 

“I’ve talked to all the guys,” Avila said. “[Miguel] Cabrera and Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that just to let them know, this is just the way it is. It’s part of the business. But not to worry about anything unless I call them.”

Translating from GM speak: The Tigers are open for business.

Verlander should have multiple suitors. The pool of free-agent starting pitchers is comically shallow. And the 33-year-old right-hander is coming off an excellent season that saw him post a 3.04 ERA in 227.2 innings with an AL-leading 254 strikeouts. 

He’s owed $28 million annually through 2019 with a $22 million vesting option for 2020, so he isn’t exactly cheap. Detroit won’t be willing to give him away, either. The Tigers will surely expect some legitimate young talent in return.

Enter Boston, which has a robust payroll, a deep minor league system and ties to Verlander via its front office.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was at the helm in Detroit when the Tigers drafted Verlander in 2004 and was also there in 2013 when Verlander signed a five-year extension.

At the time, Dombrowski praised Verlander’s stuff and durability and labeled him “one of the premier pitchers in baseball,” per MLB.com’s Jason Beck. 

Verlander’s ERA ballooned to 4.54 in 2014, and he threw a career-low 133.1 innings while battling a triceps injury in 2015.

His 2016 bounce-back, though, should ease concerns about a decline. We’re talking about a six-time All-Star who won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011.

Velocity isn’t everything, but Verlander’s average fastball sat at 93.7 mph last season, his highest mark since 2013.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe listed the Red Sox as a possible landing spot for both Verlander and Cabrera. Boston has a David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of its lineup, so Cabrera makes some sense.

The Red Sox could find an Ortiz proxy on the free-agent market, however. Edwin Encarnacion seems like a fit. Or there’s reigning MLB home run leader Mark Trumbo. 

To get a top-shelf starting pitcher this winter, it’s the trade route or bust.

Boston’s rotation is headlined by Porcello and left-hander David Price.

Porcello posted Cy Young-caliber numbers (sorry, Kate), going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Price was a mixed bag after signing a seven-year, $217 million contract. He led MLB with 230 innings and struck out 228, but he also paced baseball with 227 hits allowed and surrendered a career-high 30 homers.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright posted a 2.86 first-half ERA but landed on the disabled list in September with shoulder issues and missed the remainder of the season and the division series.

Young left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez (4.71 ERA in 107 innings in 2016), Henry Owens (5.19 ERA in 16 career big league starts) and 32-year-old right-hander Clay Buchholz (4.78 ERA in 139.1 innings in 2016) round out the crop of possible starters. 

If the Red Sox add a bat to an enviable offensive core that includes 24-year-old AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and All-Stars Xander Bogaerts (age 24) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (age 26), the current starting rotation should keep them competitive. 

With Verlander, though, Boston would vault into the firmament of surefire championship contenders. Here, let’s stack Verlander, Porcello and Price’s 2016 stats next to each other:

That’s three of the AL’s top seven starting pitchers by WAR, to use a simple bit of statistical shorthand. If Price bounced back to the form that made him the Cy Young runner-up in 2015 or that won him the prize in 2012, look out.

It’s unclear exactly what Boston would have to part with from a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 4 in the game. If the Sox were willing to eat all or most of Verlander’s salary, they should be able to keep untouchable names like infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi off the negotiating table.

Boston could also pursue another ace, like the Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale, who is six years younger than Verlander and locked into a more affordable contract. The asking price for Sale, though, might include the Sox’s top prospects as a starting point.

Oh, and consider this: Verlander owns a 3.39 ERA in 98.1 postseason innings and has a well-earned reputation as a big-game pitcher. The same can’t be said for Porcello (5.66 career postseason ERA) or Price (5.54 career postseason ERA).

The Cleveland Indians are the defending AL champs until further notice. The Texas Rangers and retooling Houston Astros will make noise out West. The East, too, is competitive, with the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays coming off wild-card berths and the suddenly nimble New York Yankees laden with young talent. 

Boston, however, can gain separation. Yes, the Red Sox have shown indications of playing it safe this offseason, as I recently noted. Landing Verlander may prove too tempting to resist, however.

At the very least, it would put those angry tweets squarely in the rear view.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton didn’t win the American League Cy Young Award. He didn’t even finish among the top three, much to the consternation of his skipper.

“It’s shocking,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said of Britton‘s snub, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko.  

Here’s another shock that could hit Orioles nation: the sight of Britton leaving via trade.

Kubatko recently floated the notion, though he added O’s executive vice president Dan Duquette “is adamant” Britton isn’t going anywhere.

So take what follows with the requisite grain of salt, and don’t mash the panic button if you’re a Baltimore fan and an ardent Britton booster.

Still, the idea has merit. Designated hitter/outfielder Mark Trumbo—who signed a one-year deal, $9.15 million deal with the Orioles last season and proceeded to lead MLB with 47 home runs—figures to have multiple suitors. Catcher Matt Wieters is likewise a free agent.

The Orioles plan to hang back and let the market develop, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reported, and don’t seem likely to be in on the handful of high-impact players.

That means if they want to get better, a trade is the path to take.

Moving Britton would sting—no argument there.

The 28-year-old left-hander had one of the best seasons ever by a relief pitcher, posting a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings with 74 strikeouts and 47 saves.

His season ended on a sour note when Showalter left him languishing in the bullpen in the Orioles’ crushing 5-2, 11-inning loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Game.

Other than that and the Cy Young rebuke, however, virtually everything came up Britton. 

So why would Baltimore dream of letting him go?

For one, the Orioles have a deep pen that features right-handers Brad Brach (2.05 ERA, 79 innings, 92 strikeouts) and Mychal Givens (3.13 ERA, 74.2 innings, 96 strikeouts), each of whom has the stuff and results to slot in as a closer.

And they have a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 29 in the game. A package that included MLB-ready talent and younger, developing studs could boost the O’s in 2017 and, more importantly, set them up for success down the road. 

Remember, they compete in the AL East, where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox not only have deep pockets, but also the No. 1 and No. 4 farm systems, per Reuter. 

Granted, there are multiple top-shelf closers available via free agency, including Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Britton, though, is set to hit the market after the 2018 campaign and his agent is Scott Boras, which means he will be angling to swim in money, Scrooge McDuck style. 

He’s been excellent for a few seasons, posting ERAs of 1.65 and 1.92 in 2014 and 2015, respectively, and making two straight All-Star teams.

This could be his sell-high moment, however. Relievers are notoriously mercurial creatures—brilliant one year, mediocre the next. 

As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted, “the relief market has exploded so much that Baltimore should at least go through the due-diligence process of asking other teams what they’d give up for Britton.”

Baltimore can hold out for a gaudy package. Maybe the Los Angeles Dodgers lose Jansen and are willing to part with a top pitching prospect such as Jose De Leon. Or perhaps the Yankees whiff on Chapman and dip into their MiLB reserve (that’s doubtful, given the division rivalry, but possible).

The safe money is on Britton staying put. There are enough free-agent options to satiate closer-starved contenders, with names like high-upside reclamation project Greg Holland and solid veteran Brad Ziegler also available.

Baltimore needs to pick up the phone, though, and maintain an open mind. Sometimes, you have to give up something great for the greater good.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported Monday that authorities in the Dominican Republic are investigating allegations that a group of Texas Rangers prospects sexually assaulted an underage teammate in a “hazing incident.”

Police questioned eight prospects and informed a Dominican court they intend to charge at least four of the players with a crime. Passan wrote that Rougned Odor’s brother and Yohel Pozo are among those at the focus of the police investigation.

Prospects from Colombia and Venezuela were the victims of the hazing rituals, and some were under the age of 18, according to Passan, who detailed a brief Snapchat video showing one specific occurrence:

Video of the alleged assault, which took place toward the end of October, was captured and posted on Snapchat, according to sources. A 10-second clip of video, obtained by Yahoo Sports, shows the alleged victim in a Rangers shirt and Rangers shorts laying on a bed with his arms held behind his back and his legs pinned down. At least four men are seen in addition to the alleged victim, whose penis is exposed, grabbed and maneuvered underneath a hand towel. All of the men in the video, including the alleged victim, are seen laughing.

Citing a report from Dominican media outlet Metro, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal wrote last Thursday that Dominican authorities arrested three Rangers prospects from the organization’s Dominican Summer League team several months ago.

Last week, the Rangers provided a statement:

The Texas Rangers became aware of an incident at our Academy in the Dominican Republic and we acted promptly to open an investigation. We have reported the incident and are cooperating fully with Major League Baseball and the authorities in the Dominican Republic. With this being an ongoing investigation, we will have no further comment at this time.

After being shown evidence of the alleged hazing, the Rangers alerted MLB to the incident, and the players involved were then placed on administrative leave as part of the minor league domestic violence policy.

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) released its 2017 Hall of Fame ballot Monday, and Jeff Bagwell, Trevor Hoffman, Tim Raines, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada highlight the list of 34 former players.

Bagwell, Hoffman and Raines each obtained at least 67.3 percent of the vote in the 2016 Hall of Fame class, though the three failed to reach the requisite 75 percent needed for induction. Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza did reach that percentage and were inducted in 2016.

That bodes well for the trio in the future, as the BBWAA noted: “Every player who has ever cleared the 65 percent threshold in any one BBWAA election has eventually been inducted into the Hall of Fame, save for Jack Morris—who exhausted his BBWAA eligibility in 2015 and will not be eligible for the Modern Baseball Era Committee consideration until the fall of 2017.”

The three can certainly make a strong case.

Bagwell was the 1994 National League MVP and finished his career with a .297 batting average and 449 home runs. Hoffman was one of the most dominant closers in MLB history, finishing his career with 601 saves (second all-time), and he was twice voted as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award. Raines led the NL in steals four times and is fifth all-time in swiped bags with 808.

The newcomers to the ballot offer strong cases as well.

Vladimir Guerrero finished his career hitting .318 with 449 homers and 1,496 RBI, and he had one of the strongest outfield arms in the game. He was also exciting to watch at the plate, as he was unafraid to swing at a pitch no matter where it was thrown and had the power to hit pitches well off the plate out of the park.

“Vlad’s one of the greatest guys and best teammates I’ve ever been around,” former teammate Torii Hunter told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. “I felt honored to play on the same team with a Hall of Famer.”

Manny Ramirez was no slouch with the bat either, hitting .312 with 555 homers and 1,831 RBI. He was a phenomenal postseason hitter, blasting 29 home runs and 78 RBI in 111 postseason games, and he was one of the game’s quirkier figures during his career.

However, he also twice tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs—serving one suspension and retiring to avoid another—which may keep him off some ballots.

Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, meanwhile, were both excellent catchers. Rodriguez was known for his consistent fielding and his excellent offensive production for the position, hitting .296 with 311 home runs.

“I feel very excited about it,” Rodriguez told Bloom. “It’s hard to believe five years went by that quick. It feels like I just retired a couple of years ago. It will be nice. It will be fun. Hopefully I can be in the Hall of Fame. Nobody knows. I’m feeling positive.”

Posada won four titles with the New York Yankees as part of the legendary core of players for the team that included Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte.

The other notable names include Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield and Lee Smith.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Major League Baseball has officially begun its descent into winter in the early portions of the offseason. But the hot stove is growing warmer with some big names popping up in the trade market. 

Teams will be keen on addressing their respective needs as early as possible when the pickings are more abundant, so expect the transactions to continue rolling in before the new year. 

Here is the latest on some of the most notable names on the trade market. 

Chris Sale

Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale’s falling out with the team after the release of Adam LaRoche and the jersey-cutting incident has put him on the trade market even though club options could keep him signed until 2019, according to Spotrac.  

For a White Sox team that looks to be in full rebuild mode, Sale’s name has continued to come up, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney:

The White Sox have started the process of a massive sell-off, with other teams increasingly convinced they will deal Chris Sale. ‘And once you trade him,” said [an] evaluator, ‘why would you stop there?’ They’ve told teams they’re willing to deal any player who has fewer than four years of team control.’

Sale has been one of the elite pitchers in the American League over the past five seasons, making the All-Star Game every year. In that span, he’s led the majors in complete games (four in 2013 and six in 2016) and strikeouts per nine innings twice (10.8 in 2014 and 11.8 in 2015), total strikeouts once (274 in 2015) and ERA+ (173 in 2014) once. 

It’s made him one of the most coveted arms on the market, but the White Sox seem to be asking for a pretty penny in return for him, according to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News: “It’s unclear whether any team will meet the Pale Hose’s current asking price for Sale, which is steep, [a] major league source said.”

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan speculated that the Los Angeles Dodgers would be “a perfect trade partner” for Chicago, citing their deep prospect pool that includes second baseman Willie Calhoun, pitcher Jose De Leon and outfielders Cody Bellinger and Alex Verdugo. 

Chris Archer

Tampa Bay Rays starter Chris Archer is coming off his worst season in the majors, leading the league with 19 losses. However, he didn’t get much help from his offense, as his 3.48 runs of support was ranked 70th among all qualifying pitchers. 

Regardless, the Rays could be looking to ship him out of town, according to Olney: “Rival executives expect the Rays to trade Drew Smyly or Chris Archer, as well as closer Alex Colome, who had 37 saves last season.”

While he’s considered the ace of the Rays staff, Archer has put together just one winning season, going 9-7 in 2013. 

From 2013 to 2015, he garnered an All-Star appearance while posting three seasons with an ERA of 3.33 or lower. But a bad Rays team hasn’t done much to help his stat sheet. 

Olney revealed that the Atlanta Braves are speaking with the Rays about available pitching, but that offense might not provide much more support for Archer. 

Last season, Atlanta scored just 4.03 runs per game, ranking third-worst in the majors. The Rays could score some young talent in return for Archer, but he wouldn’t end up in a much better setting.

Michael Wacha

After going 17-7 with an All-Star appearance in 2015, St. Louis Cardinals starter Michael Wacha came crashing down to earth in 2016. He finished with a 7-7 record alongside a 5.09 ERA while dealing with shoulder issues. 

According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals have “floated” his name in trade conversations but are not likely to get any bites. 

Due to the shoulder problems, Wacha has been unable to become a consistent contributor within the Cardinals rotation. 

He’s never hit the 200-inning mark in his four years in the league, which presents a red flag for any interested suitor. 

But the Cardinals might be trying to sell him while they can get something in return instead of going through three years of arbitration and running the risk of another bad year or injuries.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

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Now that MLB teams drew first blood in the offseason’s free-agency market, expect the floodgates to soon open.

The Toronto Blue Jays started the party by officially signing Kendrys Morales, a clear sign of them fearing the end of their relationship with star sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. The Houston Astros also acted early by signing Josh Reddick, as first reported by Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. They continued to bolster their offense by acquiring catcher Brian McCann from the New York Yankees.

Two days later, the St. Louis Cardinals set the table for an expensive bullpen market by signing southpaw Brett Cecil to a four-year deal, also first reported by Passan. Upon seeing the early transaction, available closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon probably laughed maniacally and envisioned record-setting paydays for relief pitchers.

In the aftermath of these early moves, the American League East is particularly gearing up to land marquee free agents. Let’s take a look at the latest buzz around the league.

Bidding War for Carlos Beltran?

In a hitter-heavy free-agent crop, a slugger set to turn 40 in April is attracting the most suitors.

According to the Boston Herald‘s Evan Drellich, designated hitter Carlos Beltran has a “more robust” market than Encarnacion, who will command a larger salary after belting 42 home runs in 2016. Beltran, who has played for five teams in the past six seasons, proved he has more power to offer after hitting .295/.337/.513 with 29 long balls for the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers last season.

Drellich said the Bronx Bombers are looking to reacquire the man they dealt in July, but a bitter rival is also eyeing his services. Seen as an ideal David Ortiz replacement, one source identified Beltran to Drellich as the Boston Red Sox’s “top priority” this offseason.

Before setting up another one-on-one battle between the big-market behemoths, the Rangers and Astros are still in play. Although Reddick and McCann give Houston a crowded lineup, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed Drellich‘s claim that the Astros are not backing out of the Beltran sweepstakes:

Unfortunately for them, the McCann trade makes a Yankees reunion far more realistic. They cleared a bloated contract off the books and reopened up the designated-hitter slot. Loaded with young talent after last year’s deadline haul, a short-term upgrade would work perfectly for the Evil Empire.

The smooth-swinging switch-hitter also took a liking to Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.363/.598 with 14 homers in 201 plate appearances last season. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees and Beltran press the reset button and reunite for a one- or two-year contract.

Prediction: Beltran signs two-year deal with Yankees. 

Blue Jays Targeting Dexter Fowler

The Blue Jays already purchased insurance for their worst fears by bringing aboard Morales, who should slide into Encarnacion‘s DH role. An offensive specialist with a .795 OPS, however, will not maintain their lineup’s luster.

If both stars indeed sign elsewhere, Toronto won’t replicate their elite production. Knowing their power will take a major hit, the franchise is looking to instead locate a strong leadoff hitter with keen on-base abilities, per Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi:

If that’s what they want, Dexter Fowler is the perfect candidate. The center fielder, who will turn 31 before Opening Day, notched a .393 on-base percentage atop the Chicago Cubs’ batting order due to a stellar 14.3 walk percentage. Over his career, he has reached base at a .366 clip.

He would also need to move positions with defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar occupying center. The Blue Jays would certainly delight their pitching staff by instead complementing him with Adam Eaton, who accrued 22 defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs, after moving from center to right field for the Chicago White Sox.

Although Eaton’s career .357 on-base percentage fits the bill, there’s little reason to believe the White Sox would trade him. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the 27-year-old will make $18.4 million over the next three years before the team can evoke club options in both 2020 and 2021.

Fowler is the more realistic target, but he should draw major interest following a career year. Expect him to get more money from another contender, which may compel the Blue Jays to bring back Michael Saunders instead.

Predictions: Fowler signs four-year deal elsewhere; Eaton stays put.

Yankees Gear Up for Big Moves

Before setting up a Beltran press conference, the Yankees are reportedly also aiming their sights much higher.

According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Yankees are pursuing Encarnacion as well as Beltran following the McCann trade. In an MLB Network Radio interview, ESPN’s Jim Bowden expressed confidence in them attaining either Encarnacion or outfielder Yoenis Cespedes:

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman traded several key pieces last summer, but he’s now open to quickly replenishing the roster rather than patiently restocking. As he told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, he’s willing to explore all avenues:

I’m going to be open-minded to all of it. I’m going to be open-minded to what’s available. We now will pursue bats, but we’ll see if it takes us anywhere. It could be a DH-only situation; obviously the preference always is going to be someone that can provide positional ability so you have more flexibility on your roster. We’ll see where it takes us.

Burned by splashy signings in the past, it seems strange for the Yankees to dip their feet back in the expensive free-agent pool this winter. They finally shed McCann, Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez off the payroll and got significantly younger, so why give another veteran a hefty contract two years before Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw can hit the open market?

It’s a new era in the Big Apple, so expect Cashman and Co. to stay patient and settle for Beltran. If anything, they’ll make a splash by bringing back Chapman or another premier reliever.

As the Yankees gradually build their next superteam, the Red Sox will roll the dice now by signing Encarnacion. Having lost Reddick and facing the possibility of watching Justin Turner leave as well, the Los Angeles Dodgers clear their deep pockets to pry Cespedes from the New York Mets.

Predictions: Encarnacion signs four-year deal with Red Sox; Cespedes joins Dodgers on five-year contract; Chapman goes back to Yankees for four-year deal.

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The early stages of the MLB offseason are generally filled with speculation as to where the top free agents might sign and rumors as to which players are expected to be available on the trade market.

This offseason has been no exception, and as we close in on the winter meetings and some legitimate action on both fronts, the influx of rumors should only increase.

With that in mind, what follows is a look at each team’s best trade asset for the offseason.

While players did not necessarily need to have been named in concrete trade rumors to be included on the following list—and some of these are speculative—they did need to have realistic chances of being traded.

In other words, you won’t see guys like Kris Bryant, Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw on the following list.

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There’s a club of major league superstars so exclusive it has just two members.

To get in requires a number of recent top-five finishes in Most Valuable Player voting. One year won’t do—sorry, Bryce Harper—and neither will two. You might get there soon, Manny Machado, but not just yet.

No, to get into this most exclusive club will take at least four years of top-five finishes, all in the last five seasons.

Mike Trout is in, obviously. And less obviously, so is Andrew McCutchen.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder had a bad year in 2016. There’s no question about that. His offense dropped off, his baserunning wasn’t great and his defense in center field was the worst in the game by some measures.

He wasn’t an MVP this year. He wasn’t an MVP candidate.

He certainly isn’t Mike Trout.

But McCutchen shouldn’t be forgotten, not in a winter when the Pirates are willing to listen to trade offers for a guy an acquiring team would control for the next two years. There just aren’t many guys out there who can do what he has already done. 

If McCutchen is anything close to the perennial MVP candidate he was from 2012 to 2015 (including his MVP-winning season in 2013), then he’s a bargain at $14 million next year. If he’s the player he was for much of 2016, he’s a drag on your payroll at any price.

“He’s going to come to camp and be Andrew McCutchen again,” Neal Huntington predicted to Bleacher Report last week.

Huntington is hardly a neutral observer. He’s the Pirates general manager, which means he needs McCutchen‘s value to be high for a trade or his performance level to be high if the Pirates keep him.

“We don’t think it’s a coincidence we were really good when he was really good,” Huntington said.

He was the very symbol of the Pirates’ return to relevance, a first-round draft pick who emerged as a star just as the team was becoming a contender. The six-year, $51.5 million contract McCutchen signed during spring training in 2012 was a strong signal from both the team and the player.

He’s available now because limited-budget teams like the Pirates can’t afford to offer big contracts that take players deep into their 30s. McCutchen turned 30 last month, and if that doesn’t make him old now, it means he will be old before his next contract runs out.

It’s the perfect time for a team like the Pirates to think about a trade—or it would be if McCutchen were coming off anything but the worst season of his career. But that might make it the perfect time to acquire him if he’s about to bounce back.

He was bad enough in 2016 to make you wonder if age is already catching up with him. He was bad enough to make you wonder if the injuries that contributed to his drop-off were even worse than he and the Pirates admitted, or if he had issues with manager Clint Hurdle.

“He didn’t play with that Andrew McCutchen edge,” said one American League scout who has followed his career. “Maybe he just needs to get out of there and get some new scenery—unless there’s some long-term medical issue. He has been banged up.”

“His body language wasn’t the same,” said another scout, who works for a National League team. “Was it him getting older or being hurt? This guy played like his hair was on fire before.”

Huntington agreed a hand injury was a factor in McCutchen starting so slow in 2016, but he shot down rumors there could be a lingering knee issue.

“No player is the same at 30 as he was at 25, but he has no long-term health issues at all,” Huntington said.

Huntington pointed to McCutchen‘s stronger performance at the end of the season. His walk-to-strikeout ratio got much better in the final two months, and Huntington said better bat speed led to McCutchen handling high-velocity pitching better as the year went on.

The National League scout said the body language also improved.

“I saw more energy later in the year,” he said.

Another American League scout saw similar improvement and called it a possible sign McCutchen could return to star status.

“He can be a star again,” the scout said. “But I doubt he can be a superstar, because the speed element is somewhat gone.”

Observers generally agree McCutchen has lost a step, cutting down on his ability to steal bases and turning an above-average center fielder into one who is average or worse.

The Pirates believe the defensive metrics are somewhat unfair. Huntington said the Pirates asked McCutchen to play shallower to cut off base hits in front of him, and when pitchers failed to execute, it resulted in him allowing balls to get past him.

But Huntington also admitted the Pirates will consider changing their outfield alignment if McCutchen is back in 2017, with Starling Marte possibly taking over in center field and McCutchen taking a corner spot.

The same metric that gave McCutchen a minus-28 in defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs (the worst by a full-time center fielder since Matt Kemp in 2010), had Marte as plus-19 in left field.

Kemp is one example of a star rebounding from a bad season. He wasn’t good offensively (by his standards) or defensively in 2010, but he bounced back so well he finished second in MVP voting in 2011. Then again, he was only 26.

McCutchen is 30, old enough to make you wonder how many more good years he has left. Remember, though, a team trading for him this winter should mainly be concerned that he has a good 2017-18 remaining.

“I personally think he’s got a couple years,” the National League scout said.

Not surprisingly, McCutchen agrees. Before the season ended, he told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review he knows he needs to do better.

“I’ve got to prove—not to [fans] but to the team and to ownership—that I’m able to play out my career at a high level,” McCutchen said. “I didn’t do that this year. I didn’t play at my best level.”

We’ve seen McCutchen at his best level. Few players in the game ever reach that level.

That shouldn’t be forgotten.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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Let’s pretend for just a moment that Theo Epstein isn’t some sort of divine power, which, if you polled those in Chicago, is the pervasive feeling since baseball underwent its version of an apocalypse: a Chicago Cubs World Series win.

We’ll then acknowledge that the Cubs president of baseball operations cannot possibly lure every free agent to his club. That would mean free-agent closer Aroldis Chapman and center fielder Dexter Fowler, key components to the 2016 squad, may not return.

Truth is it’s unlikely that either will rejoin the Cubs in 2017 because, well, Epstein really isn’t superhuman. Though after being the architect of the two teams—the Boston Red Sox and Cubs—that broke professional sports’ longest championship droughts, we can agree he’s the closest baseball has to it.

Each player will be offered lucrative contracts from several teams. No reports, thus far, have indicated the Cubs have made a long-term offer to either player.

But in the event that Epstein is able to wave a magic wand—or more likely team owner Tom Ricketts’ checkbook—and convince only one of the two to return to Chicago’s north side, he should use it to focus on bringing Fowler back.

He is the more critical player to a Cubs repeat.

Forget that Chapman was brought to Chicago via a midseason trade with the New York Yankees and was somewhat of a disappointment in the playoffs. The left-handed flamethrower’s influence on the Cubs bullpen was overwhelmingly positive.

But even if he were with the team for the entirety of the 2017 season, his impact would be far less than that of Fowler, who served as Chicago’s leadoff hitter in 2016.

The easiest way to compare a position player to a pitcher is by using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), an all-inclusive statistic that seeks to measure a player’s total value to his team. According to FanGraphs, Fowler’s was 4.7 in 2016 compared to Chapman’s 2.7, a difference that indicates the former contributed more heavily to Chicago’s championship run.

It’s too difficult to debate whether Fowler’s 84 runs scored is more notable than Chapman’s 36 saves in 2016. There’s no way to differentiate which is better: Fowler’s career-best .393 on-base percentage or Chapman’s 0.825 WHIP last season.

As a fielder, Fowler’s defensive runs above average was 2.7, according to FanGraphs. That ranked 13th among all MLB outfielders. He brought value to the team with his bat and glove.

But nonetheless, definitively, we can conclude that both players were good in 2016. Arguing who had the better stat line is a futile exercise because pitching is measured much differently than hitting.

Fowler’s superior value amounts to this: He plays more games.

Watching a relief pitcher play in the postseason is like reading with a magnifying glass. Everything looks bigger.

Many baseball games—during both the regular season and playoffs—are determined in the late innings with a reliever on the mound. In the playoffs, however, one game means so much more.

The value of a shutdown inning, therefore, is higher in the postseason.

But the San Francisco Giants led MLB in blown saves but still made the playoffs. And once the postseason began, the game’s best reliever, Andrew Miller, didn’t pitch the ninth inning. Hard-line sabermetricians will argue that a team’s best reliever should pitch the eighth inning, not the ninth. So, it stands to reason that the closer position isn’t as crucial as during the regular season.

So, a reliever has less influence on a team over the course of a 162-game regular season. One inning pitched just matters less, even if it is in the ninth inning.

As a leadoff hitter, Fowler is virtually guaranteed four plate appearances. His ability to score runs far outweighs Chapman’s ability to hold a team scoreless in one inning. Reality is that a closer like Chapman is useless without the lead anyway.

This means he needs players like Fowler to score in order to be called out of the bullpen.

And that’s probably the reason why manager Joe Maddon tagged the mantra “you go, we go” to Fowler’s performance on a given day.

As the leadoff hitter, if Fowler gets on base, it has a residual effect on the rest of the lineup. That equals run production.

And though this may be obvious, it’s worth stating: Teams have to score to win.

No matter how well Chapman or any pitcher plays, he can’t be the difference in a game when his offense is shut out. But an offensive player can carry a team on a day when his pitching staff is playing poorly.

At this stage in the offseason, though, we are really unsure of what might happen with either player. A dream scenario could be one in which both return, though it’s more likely that neither plays for the Cubs in 2017. There are closer options in free agency like Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. The Cubs have internal options as a replacement for Fowler in center field such as Albert Almora and Jason Heyward. If Heyward moved from right to center field, Ben Zorbist could take his place in the outfield.

Then again, Fowler was a free agent last offseason too. Chicago didn’t think it had a chance to bring him back, but Epstein pulled it off.

He surprised the team at the beginning of spring training when Fowler walked into the clubhouse. He kept it quiet within the organization and was able to keep the move out of the press. It was an executive’s version of a magic trick.

Cubs fans should be hoping for a second act.

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.

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