Archive for December, 2016

MLB Trade Ideas Based on Latest Offseason Week 8 News, Rumors and Speculation

Week after week, we take the juiciest trade rumors and speculation making the rounds on MLB‘s rumor mill and try to concoct deals that make sense for both teams. Unfortunately, not every rumor lends itself to such an endeavor.

Take, for instance, the news this week, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that the New York Yankees have interest in Jose Quintana of the Chicago White Sox. Could the Yankees use a pitcher like Quintana? Of course they could. Nobody disputes that.

But the cost of acquiring Quintana is prohibitive. As ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand notes: “The White Sox want a boatload of prospects. The Yankees have been disinclined to trade any of [theirs].” There’s just not a deal that makes sense for both sides—so you won’t find that deal on the pages that follow.

What you will find, however, are a pair of deals involving the other team in New York, along with two American League contenders bolstering their respective rosters for what they hope will be deep playoff runs in 2017.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have actually been discussed.

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MLB Teams Needing a Big Winter Splash

Desperation can only be born out of an impending deadline. As it pertains to sports, that boundary could be a trade deadline or the beginning of the season.

In the case of baseball and this offseason, that’s the start of spring training in 2017. But that’s only a hard deadline for those teams looking to compete this summer. Those in rebuilding mode don’t need to concern themselves with 2017, as they can make a deal when the time feels right or an enticing offer comes along.

So consider this a list of playoff contenders—or those, at least, that can compete—that need to become more active as we enter the final stages of the offseason. 

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Tigers Will Regret Pretending They’re a World Series Contender

Early in the offseason, the Detroit Tigers hung up a “For Sale” sign. Turns out when you flip it over it says “Just Kidding!”

OK, that’s an exaggeration.

First, the winter isn’t over. Detroit could still offload one or more of its tradeable veteran assets. Plus, the Tigers never committed to a full-scale fire sale.

“I’ve talked to all the guys—[Miguel] Cabrera and [Justin] Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that—just to let them know, Hey this is just the way it is and it’s part of the business but not to worry about anything unless I call them,” Detroit general manager Al Avila said Nov. 8 on MLB Now (via MLB.com).

That’s not a promise to sell, sell, sell. It sure sounds like a GM who’s prepared to entertain offers, though.

Instead, it’s been silent as a Tesla in the Motor City. Yes, the Tigers sent center fielder Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels for minor league right-hander Victor Alcantara on Nov. 3.

All of their big pieces remain on the roster, however, and they seem increasingly likely to go for it in 2017.

That’s a mistake. There’s no other way to put it.

Sure, Detroit could sniff the playoffs. It won 86 games in 2016, good for second place in the American League Central. FanGraphs projects an 83-79 record for the Tigers in 2017 and another finish just outside the money.

The Central is winnable. The defending AL champion Cleveland Indians haven’t made any major offseason splashes. Neither have the Kansas City Royals, who could be sellers. The Chicago White Sox are definitely sellers, and the young Minnesota Twins took a big step back last season.

But with the Boston Red Sox stockpiling out East and the Houston Astros doing the same in the West, the Junior Circuit bar is being set.

Hanging around the fringe isn’t enough for Detroit. The Tigers aren’t some burgeoning up-and-comer; nor are they a franchise starved for a taste of the postseason.

Between 2011 and 2014, Detroit advanced to the playoffs four times, to the American League Championship Series three times and to the World Series once.

Add another unsuccessful trip to the Fall Classic in 2006, and Tigers fans have been treated to their share of October action in the past decade.

What they deserve now is either a full-bore run at the franchise’s first championship since 1984 or a strategic, unambiguous rebuild.

What they’re getting instead is the equivalent of treading water.

Detroit isn’t going to spend on any of this year’s first- or second-tier free-agents. That much is obvious.

To truly contend, the club needs to upgrade a bullpen that finished 24th in baseball with a 4.22 ERA. Yet the Tigers weren’t even an also-ran on top free-agent closers such as Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, and they haven’t made any impact relief additions.

They could also stand to fortify their rotation. Verlander is fresh off a superlative season that should have netted him the AL Cy Young Award, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer is an exciting building block.

Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, whom the Tigers signed for five years and $110 million last November, started strong but battled groin and neck injuries and finished with a 4.87 ERA.

Mike Pelfrey (5.07 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (5.87 ERA) are likewise questionable. Daniel Norris went 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA, but the 23-year-old left-hander also dealt with injuries and has yet to prove himself over a full season.

Detroit ranked fourth in the majors in OPS last season, but its offensive core is aging. Cabrera will turn 34 in April, and Victor Martinez will be 38 on Friday. Each played more than 150 games last season, but at some point, injuries and decline will hit.

Maybe it won’t be next year. Maybe the Tigers could make one more run if they bolstered their bullpen and rotation. They don’t have the monetary flexibility, though, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick noted:

When you can’t pony up for a backup catcher, it’s safe to say the budget’s busted.

Instead, Detroit should look to the White Sox and New York Yankees, who have unloaded veteran assets to shed payroll and restock their farm systems.

The Tigers’ farm, which Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 25 in the game in September, could use an infusion of talent.

Right fielder J.D. Martinez will be a free agent after this season. Kinsler is signed through 2017 with a team option for 2018. Their stock will likely never be higher.

Moving Verlander would be a trickier proposition. Given the paucity of pitching available this winter, though, it’s worth wondering what the Tigers could have gotten for their ace and whether they’ll regret not exploring it further.

Again, the offseason isn’t over. There’s time for Detroit to swing a swap or two. If the club is floundering at the trade deadline, the pressure to deal will increase.

Verlander, or Cabrera, might have as much value then as they do now. On the other hand, they might not. The same, and then some, goes for Kinsler and J.D. Martinez.

What the Tigers don’t want, and can’t afford, is to delay the inevitable until it’s too late. Painful as it is, when you hang up that “For Sale” sign, at a certain point you’ve got to keep it there.

             

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Jose Quintana Trade Would Be Right Idea at Wrong Time for Yankees

Nobody can fault the New York Yankees if they’re getting cold feet with their plan to take the long way back to success, but the best advice for them right now is to stay the course.

That would involve not making a trade for Chicago White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana. As Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported Monday, that’s something the Yankees are at least interested in doing:

What we have here is a team with a square hole to fill casting its gaze on a square peg.

The Yankees added a major piece to their bullpen when they brought back Aroldis Chapman on an $86 million contract. However, even he and Dellin Betances can only pick up so much slack for a starting rotation that’s littered with question marks beyond Masahiro Tanaka.

Quintana would be quite the answer to that problem.

Although he’s so far spent his big league career playing Garfunkel to Chris Sale’s Simon, Quintana’s no slouch. He’s posted a 3.35 ERA across 814.2 innings over the last four seasons. He’s actually produced more wins above replacement than Sale, who turned his Sox from White to Red during the winter meetings, since the start of 2015.

As if that alone didn’t give him enough value, Quintana also offers something that makes baseball executives swoon: cheap control. Including options, his contract runs through 2020 for $37.85 million.

For the rebuilding White Sox, Quintana’s oodles of value are worth a big ol’ bucket of prospects in a trade. Morosi’s right about that being another thing that makes him a fit for the Yankees.

They went into 2016 with a decent farm system and came out of it with an elite one. That was thanks to the Yanks accepting their grim reality and aiming for a bright future by trading Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran. When Jim Callis of MLB.com sized up the league’s farm systems in August, he ranked the Yankees’ system at No. 2.

However, there is a difference between a trade that can be made and a trade that should be made. Quintana to the Yankees is certainly the former, but it falls short of the latter.

If anyone were to drop in on Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and tell him as much, he might say they’re preaching to the choir. This was ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand’s response to the Quintana report:

Cashman touches base for nearly every available player; especially when it is need based. However, the White Sox want a boatload of prospects. The Yankees have been disinclined to trade any of them so, unless that changes, it seems unlikely Quintana will end up in the Bronx.

If so, Cashman would be sticking to what he said in early October about not wanting to take a newly minted elite farm system and immediately empty it again.

“You’d have to be one piece away, and I would not recommend that type of decision-making as we approach the 2017 season,” he said of the possibility of making any big trades, per the Associated Press via ESPN.com. “I think that would be a dangerous approach.”

Still, it’s possible Cashman’s trade finger is itchier now than it was before.

The Yankees did end 2016 on a positive note, riding a boost from Gary Sanchez and other youngsters to a 40-34 record in the second half. And while he’ll be sticking around through at least 2019 and possibly through 2021, signing Chapman was more of a win-now move than a win-later move.

Right now, the Yankees are on the Kansas City Royals/Chicago Cubs path to success. But from the above seeds could grow a desire to shorten the road to contention.

FanGraphs’ projections for 2017 now have the Yankees in the “not quite in it, not quite out of it” range with an 83-79 record. Adding Quintana would put them closer to the Red Sox in the AL East power structure and perhaps elevate them above all other American League wild-card contenders.

But at what cost? Glad you asked, Anonymous Internet Person.

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs put the rough estimate for Quintana’s surplus value on top of his contract at $80 to $90 million. That’s not far off what the White Sox received in the Sale trade, which netted them No. 1 prospect Yoan Moncada and more, and it makes it possible to guess at what the Yankees would have to give up to get Quintana.

Going off the prospect values offered by Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli at The Point of Pittsburgh, the Yankees would likely have to base an offer around a hitter ranked in the 11-25 range of Baseball America‘s top 100. Such players carry $62 million in surplus value.

Per Baseball America‘s most recent top 100, that would mean a trade based around shortstop Jorge Mateo (No. 19) or outfielder Clint Frazier (No. 21), with shortstop Gleyber Torres (No. 27) possibly being close enough to make the grade.

And that’s just to start.

The Yankees might have to add outfielder Aaron Judge (No. 42) or outfielder Blake Rutherford, a 2016 first-round pick who checks in at No. 51 for MLB.com. If not, surely the worst secondary piece the White Sox would settle for is left-hander Justus Sheffield, who’s No. 69 for Baseball America.

The upside of sacrificing this much prospect depth would be a couple extra wins on the Yankees’ 2017 projection. But not even a trade for Clayton Kershaw would be enough to make up the gap between them and the Red Sox, which currently stands at 10 games. To be safe, the Yankees would need more.

To be sure, they could indeed add more. They would still have pieces to trade for another starter. They could also sign one of the market’s remaining sluggers (Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, et al) to lengthen out their lineup.

But if the Yankees were to go that route, they’ll have fallen right back in the same trap that necessitated them finally stockpiling prospects in the first place. They would have a team that would be good without being heavy favorites now, and which would have little young talent or payroll space with which to fix problems in the future.

The alternative is remaining patient and building something much stronger from the ground up.

The Yankees have already started doing this with Sanchez, Judge and Greg Bird lined up for regular roles in 2017. When their other young talents arrive, they’ll be sitting on a young core the likes of which the franchise hasn’t seen since the Core Four materialized two decades ago—yes, it has been that long.

It worked for the Royals. It worked for the Cubs. If they let it, it can work for the Yankees too.

   

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Daniel Hudson to Pirates: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

The Pittsburgh Pirates confirmed they signed reliever Daniel Hudson to a two-year deal on Wednesday. 

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan first reported the deal on Monday, noting it was worth $11 million. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed the deal, while Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports added a breakdown of the contract:

Hudson spent the past six seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks, switching between the starting rotation and the bullpen. 

After the deal was announced, the pitcher posted a message on his Twitter account thanking the Diamondbacks organization and its fans. The team provided its thoughts:

Last year, as Arizona’s setup man for the early portion of the season, he endured a difficult stretch that saw him shuffled throughout various bullpen roles. 

Following a June 21 appearance against the Toronto Blue Jays, Hudson had his ERA down to 1.55. But it ballooned to 7.22 on Aug. 2. CBSSports.com’s Mike Axisa showed how damaging that stretch was for the right-hander:

Going from middle reliever to closer, Hudson lowered his ERA to 5.22 by season’s end, but it was on a Diamondbacks team that was well out of contention by July. 

After he picked up the win in the season finale against the San Diego Padres, Hudson showed his emotions at the thought of it being his final appearance with the Diamondbacks, via Fox Sports Arizona:

Now in a new setting, he’ll have to lower his ERA if he wants to stick with the Pirates. Still, a good start to his Pittsburgh tenure could see him quickly carve out his niche and receive regular appearances moving forward. 

Tony Watson posted 15 saves in 2016 after replacing Mark Melancon as the Pirates closer. Since Watson will likely be Pittsburgh’s closer heading into the 2017 campaign, Hudson should prove valuable as an option in late-inning situations.

       

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.    

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Bryce Harper Marries Girlfriend Kayla Varner: Latest Details and Photos

Washington Nationals superstar Bryce Harper married longtime girlfriend Kayla Varner over the weekend at the iconic San Diego Mormon Temple.

Harper shared an image from the ceremony on his Instagram page:

Wedding photographer India Earl also shared an image from the wedding:

According to TalkNats.com (via Emily Heil of the Washington Post), Nationals teammates Jayson Werth and Trea Turner were in attendance, along with general manager Mike Rizzo. Former teammate Ian Desmond also attended, per Sports Illustrated (via Fox Sports).

Turner shared an image from the proceedings:

Harper and Varner—who played soccer at BYU and Ohio State—had previously planned to wed in 2015, though the wedding was called off, per Heil. But Varner announced on Instagram during this year’s ESPYs that the pair were engaged once again.

Harper, 24, is coming off his worst season as a pro, hitting .243 with 24 home runs, 86 RBI, 84 runs and 21 stolen bases in 2016. Nonetheless, he remains one of the game’s most exciting young superstars and is a crucial pillar for a Nationals team hoping to return to the postseason in 2017.

       

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Jimmy Rollins to Giants: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Jimmy Rollins isn’t ready to call it a career just yet. The veteran shortstop agreed to a minor league contract with the San Francisco Giants on Monday, where he’ll attempt to make the 25-man roster out of spring training.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the news.

Rollins, 38, spent the 2016 season with the Chicago White Sox. He hit .221/.295/.329 with two home runs and eight runs batted in while playing in 41 games. The White Sox designated Rollins for assignment in June, and he did not latch on with another big league club.

Rollins spent his first 15 MLB seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, earning three-All-Star selections, four Gold Gloves and the 2007 National League MVP. He is the Phillies’ all-time hits leader and stayed with the franchise through lean years before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 2015 season.

That one-year stint was largely unproductive, with Rollins failing to post one win above replacement (minimum 20 games) for the first time in his career, per FanGraphs. He compounded that with an even worse stint in Chicago, and it seemingly looked like his career was over.

Still, it’s not a surprise Rollins would look to prolong his career. He told reporters before the 2016 season that he planned to play “until basically they take the uniform and tell me to go coach somewhere.”

The Giants already have a talented young shortstop in Brandon Crawford, so it’s unlikely Rollins will find much playing time at his regular position. They don’t have much in the way of platoon infielders, however, so Rollins will need to prove he can play away from shortstop. His only fielding experience away from short was one brief appearance at second base with the Phillies in 2002.

The Giants will need Rollins to prove he can play some at second and maybe even third to justify giving him a roster spot. It’s likely they’ll bring in other low-cost options who will compete for a utility spot. While none will have Rollins’ resume—he ranks among the greatest Phillies in history—his performance over the last two years doesn’t speak to his having much left in the tank.

    

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.   

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Playing Panic or Patience on MLB’s Least Active Contenders This Offseason

Nothing raises the ire of a fanbase during the offseason more than inactivity.

It’s hard to get excited about a Rule 5 selection or a non-roster invitee when other teams are spending millions of dollars on established MLB talent and filling roster holes left and right.

Of course, recent seasons have proved that a loud winter does not guarantee success during the upcoming season.

Just ask the 2015 San Diego Padres.

It’s also only the middle of December, so there’s plenty of time for an inactive team to make a splash before the offseason ends.

With that in mind, the following is a look at five potential contenders that have been largely inactive so far this offseason, and whether it’s time for panic or patience with regard to their offseason approach based on remaining roster holes, salary flexibility and the rumor mill.

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MLB Rumors: Latest Buzz on Free Agency and J.D. Martinez Trade

With the holiday season fast approaching, most major business around Major League Baseball is nearing its conclusion. Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Yoenis Cespedes have all found huge contracts, as have Justin Turner, Mark Melancon and Dexter Fowler.

Other lesser free agents, like Neil Walker and Jeremy Hellickson, accepted huge one-year qualifying offers to stick around in their current digs. The stragglers remaining on the market consist of two big-time sluggers being tepidly pursued due to their qualifying offers (Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista) and another who packs a lot of pop to go with bouts of inconsistency (Mark Trumbo).

As such, some teams have turned to stoking the trade hot stove to land an impact player. Others remain hopeful on the free-agent market that the likes of Encarnacion or Bautista will lower their prices, or perhaps another bargain will emerge on a short-term contract.

Here’s an updated look at one of the biggest names generating trade buzz and some free-agency talk.

   

Orioles Back Away from Trumbo Talks

Trumbo is the most attainable slugger left on the market. He does not come attached to a qualifying offer, which would force teams to surrender a first-round pick in exchange for his services. He’s also a deeply flawed player and one of the worst individual defenders in baseball when on the field—he absolutely needs to hit with elite power to be effective.

In 2016, Trumbo did just that. His 47 home runs blasted his previous career high and were four more than anyone else. It speaks to his level of poor defensive skills that Trumbo walked away with just 2.2 wins above replacement last season, per FanGraphs.

With most teams recognizing Trumbo is better off as a designated hitter—especially as his next contract takes him deeper into his 30s—the market has been tepid. Even 10 years ago, Trumbo likely would have commanded a multiyear deal that pushed close to nine figures. Now he’s having trouble finding a deal he’s even willing to take.

 of MASN reported the Orioles have grown disillusioned with Trumbo’s asking price and pulled their offer. ESPN’s Buster Olney previously reported Baltimore offered a four-year deal worth between $52 million and $55 million, while Trumbo’s counter asked for $75 million to $80 million over the same stretch.

The Orioles are the more realistic party in this scenario. No team in its right mind should be offering Trumbo $20 million per season. He’d belted 36 home runs total over his previous two seasons before breaking out in 2016 and was actually worth -1.2 wins in 2014

It’s possible the Orioles can wait this out and get Trumbo’s price to come down into their range.

   

Orioles Still Not Ruling Out Wieters Return

The Orioles signed catcher Welington Castillo last week to a one-year, $6 million contract, which carries a $7 million player option for 2018. Castillo will likely walk into 2017 as Baltimore’s starting backstop, and he comes on a relative bargain.

Most assumed Castillo’s signing would mark the end of Matt Wieters‘ time in Baltimore. Wieters, a 2007 first-round pick, has spent his entire career in the Baltimore organization. He never became the superstar many pegged coming out of Georgia Tech but put together a solid 124-game campaign in 2016 after having his previous two years mired by injuries.

The market has nonetheless been slow, with agent Scott Boras acknowledging it’ll likely be January before Wieters finds a contract.

“The clubs that need catching are pretty well-defined,” Boras said, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. “Some are thinking about moving players to make room for him, so the timetable always on catching, I don’t know what it is; it’s always been—I can’t think of one I’ve represented that didn’t sign in January, but they do.”

Given the market, Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported a potential Wieters-Baltimore reunion shouldn’t be ruled out. It wouldn’t make all that much sense on paper. The Orioles already have a solid defensive backup in Caleb Joseph, who some have argued is a better all-around catcher than Castillo. 

The only logical scenario in which Wieters returns is one where he accepts a 50-50 platoon with Castillo on a short-term deal. That’ll likely be a nonstarter for the Boras client, who will want either a long-term deal or a clear starting job.

But the Orioles like late-winter signings, so it’s not entirely out of the question.

   

Tigers Looking to Move J.D. Martinez

Two years away from potentially hitting the free-agent market, J.D. Martinez has become a hot commodity in trade circles. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reported the Tigers are open to moving Martinez but are having trouble finding teams willing to part with their asking price. Detroit, a team with deep pockets and the ability to pay Martinez long term, is looking for “young, controllable talent” as part of any package.

The asking price is understandable. Martinez has produced 10.8 wins over the last three seasons, per FanGraphs, and still hit .307/.373/.535 with 22 home runs and 68 runs batted in despite missing 42 games in 2016. That absence helped lead to the worst defensive season of his career, but Martinez is a four- or five-win player when he plays even average defense.

There aren’t many teams around baseball that couldn’t use someone like Martinez. The Tigers could use him. That’s why they’ve set the price so high.

But it’s also why they’re going to have trouble finding a suitor until someone gets desperate. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Big MLB Offseason Values Still Available on Free-Agent, Trade Markets

Nestled somewhere between the Hot Stove League’s big-ticket items and bargain bin you’ll find baseball’s biggest values. Superstars they’re not, yet these players provide teams with an excellent return on their investment.

If they were items on a restaurant’s menu, the players we’re talking about would likely be served as part of brunch: “It’s not quite breakfast, not quite lunch, but it comes with a slice of cantaloupe at the end. You don’t get completely what you would at breakfast, but you get a good meal.”

While much of the offseason focus remains on unsigned studs like Edwin Encarnacion and yet-to-be-traded assets like Chicago’s Jose Quintana, teams in the market for a first baseman or starting pitcher would be wise to turn their attention to some of the players on this list.

They may not deliver the same level of production as their more highly touted counterparts, but these players aren’t going to cost a fortune to acquire, either. Of course, values can be found around the diamond, not just on the mound and at first base.

What follows is a look at five of the biggest values that remain available, either as free agents or via trades.

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