Kuzul

The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have to trade Chris Archer. If they do, they can demand the moon, the stars and a few spare celestial bodies.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are seeking an even bigger package for Archer than the one the Boston Red Sox sent to the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale.

To refresh your memory, that package was headlined by Yoan Moncada, the No. 1 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. It also featured fireballer Michael Kopech (MLB.com’s No. 30 prospect), plus outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe (now the White Sox’s No. 9 prospect) and Victor Diaz, another hard-throwing MiLB arm.

That’s eye-popping, but it’s the going rate for an ace-level starter in his prime with years of affordable control.

That describes Sale. It also describes Archer.

Archer, who turned 28 in September, is six months older than Sale. Sale has accumulated a 16.6 WAR between 2014 and 2016, compared to Archer’s 11.5, by FanGraphs‘ measure.

But while Sale is signed for $38 million over the next three seasons—including a pair of team options—Archer is locked in for just over $39 million for five seasons. Archer’s deal, like Sale’s, includes a pair of team options—for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.

Next season, he’s due to make a shade under $5 million. In today’s market, that’s not merely affordable, it’s damn close to highway robbery. Plus, the extra two years of control help make up for any disparity in Sale’s and Archer’s stats.

Here’s the part where we talk about Archer’s 2016 season, which was uneven. In fact, if you glance at his 9-19 record and 4.02 ERA, you could argue he was downright mediocre.

There’s more to it than that, however. Archer struck out 233 in 201.1 innings. His 3.41 xFIP suggested a degree of bad luck. His average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph was virtually identical to his career mark of 94.5.

Most encouragingly, he put up a 3.25 ERA after the All-Star break.

“I think he simplified some things and realized ultimately he had to do a better job of throwing more strikes,” Rays skipper Kevin Cash said, per Topkin. “Whether it’s fastball, slider or changeup, it’s getting it over the plate. A lot of that, once you show a lineup or the first couple hitters that you’re willing to throw strikes, you open up a lot of avenues to get them out.”

He’s not broken, in other words. We’re talking about a guy who made the All-Star team and finished fifth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2015. A return to form isn’t merely possible—given Archer’s second-half rebound and the lack of health or velocity red flags, it’s probable.

We’ve established he’s a shiny prize worth mortgaging at least a portion of the farm. Who has the prospects, and the need, to blow Tampa Bay away?

The Atlanta Braves have been linked to Archer at least since early November, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. 

It’s possible the Rays would demand shortstop Dansby Swanson, MLB.com’s No. 4 prospect and close to an untouchable asset.

But Atlanta could build a strong offer around another highly rated middle infielder: Ozzie Albies, a 19-year-old switch-hitter and MLB.com’s No. 12 prospect.

Albies hit .292 with 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A and has the tools and talent to match or even exceed Swanson’s ceiling.

To approximate what the Red Sox gave up for Sale, the Braves would likely have to part with two of their top pitching prospects. Like, say, southpaw Sean Newcomb (MLB.com’s No. 47 prospect) and right-hander Ian Anderson (MLB.com’s No. 77 prospect).

Toss in another lower-ranked chip with some upside, and you’re looking at an offer comparable to if not greater than the Sale bounty.

It would sting for Atlanta. No doubt fans who want to see the franchise rebuild with a homegrown foundation would balk.

As the Braves prepare to move into their new stadium in 2017, though, Archer would give them the franchise-defining stud they need. 

There are other potential matches. The Los Angeles Dodgers already re-signed Rich Hill to join Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda atop their rotation. But, well, insert the cliche about how you can never have too much pitching.

The Dodgers have a fertile farm headlined by top pitching prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Plus, Archer has connections to Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, from their days together in Tampa Bay.

Heck, the New York Yankees have the No. 1 farm system in baseball, according to Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, and they need starting pitching. 

They appear committed to their youth movement and holding onto blue chips like outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres. They also could be loath to trade top prospects within the division.

Then again, you never know. They’re the Yankees, after all.

The Rays are under no great pressure to move Archer now. They can hold out for a king’s ransom, and if they don’t get it, they can keep him at least until the trade deadline, when prospective buyers will be even more desperate.

Tampa Bay may choose to trade another starter, including Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted.

There are a lot of ways this could go, and many of them end with Archer remaining in central Florida for another half-season at least.

If and when the Rays let Archer go, it should be for a price that shifts the firmament. Recent bumps aside, he’s that kind of player.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon defended himself Saturday after Aroldis Chapman criticized his usage in the World Series.

“Would I do it differently? No,” Maddon said in an interview with the New York Post‘s Kevin Kernan. “There is no Game 7 without winning Game 6. And there is no Game 8 if you don’t win Game 7. That’s why you do what you have to do.”

Chapman appeared in Games 6 and 7 of the Fall Classic. His inclusion in Game 6 was surprising considering the Cubs were up 7-2 at the time. The four-time All-Star had also thrown a season-high 42 pitches two days earlier.

By the time Chapman took the mound in the eighth inning of Game 7, he looked gassed. He allowed an RBI double to Brandon Guyer and then a game-tying home run to Rajai Davis.

“The important game was going to be Game 7,” Chapman said of appearing in Game 6, per the New York Times‘ Billy Witz. “We had that game almost won. And the next day I came in and I was tired.”

Maddon’s position is understandable. The Cubs acquired Chapman exactly for the purpose of pitching in high-leverage situations in the postseason. 

At the same time, Chapman’s critique isn’t without merit. He was overworked in the playoffs, and it nearly cost the Cubs a title.

Maddon told Kernan that Chapman never raised any issues with his workload in the World Series. Chapman, however, said he felt he wasn’t in a position to decline any opportunity to pitch, per Witz:

I never told him my opinion about the way he was using me because the way I feel is that, as baseball players, we’re warriors. Our job is to do what we need to do on the field. But if they send me out there to pitch, I’m going to go out there and pitch. If I’m healthy, I’m going to go out there and pitch. If I’m tired, I’m going to put that aside and just get through it.

Chapman’s workload almost certainly would’ve been a bigger story had the Indians won Game 7. Instead, everything worked out well for him and Maddon.

Together, they helped the Cubs win their first World Series since 1908. Chapman also parlayed his 2016 success into a five-year, $86 million deal with the New York Yankees earlier this month.  

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The Chicago White Sox and first baseman Jose Abreu reached an agreement Saturday on a one-year contract extension to avoid arbitration.

Chicago announced the new deal on its official Twitter account. Scott Merkin of MLB.com reported the power-hitting infielder will earn $10.825 million in 2017.

Abreu has made a massive impact across his first three years in the majors. He’s cranked 91 home runs to go along with a .299 batting average and a .360 on-base percentage. In addition, he’s also tallied at least 100 runs batted in every year.

The Cuba native’s success quickly eliminated any concerns about his transition as a 27-year-old rookie after a successful career in the Cuban National Series. He’s proved himself as one of the most impactful offensive contributors in the American League.

In September, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times noted the first baseman lamented the fact that his individual numbers haven’t translated into team success, stating, “In this sport nobody likes to lose.”

He expressed an interest in sticking with the organization for the long haul, though:

I’m going to forever be grateful to this organization because of everything they’ve done for me. I would like to play my whole career in the U.S., with this team, because it’s like my family. They were the ones who gave me the opportunity, they were the ones who helped me through the whole process to come here and to become a U.S. resident. They have been very supportive of me, and my family, too. I want to be with this team, to be an important part of this team and to win a championship with this team.

The latest contract is a small step toward that goal. It also represents a minor pay raise after he made $10 million in 2016 before exercising an opt-out clause in his prior deal, per Spotrac.

He’s been the subject of some trade rumors this offseason as well. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported in early December the White Sox and Colorado Rockies engaged in “preliminary talks” about a potential deal. It’s unclear whether those discussions ever advanced beyond the exploratory stage.

For now, he’s slated to hit in the middle of the Chicago order. It’s a lineup featuring some strength from the No. 2 through No. 5 spots with Abreu, Tim Anderson, Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera. But the rest is patchwork as the club enters a rebuilding phase.

Ultimately, the White Sox’s decision to revamp the system could lead to an Abreu trade. It will be difficult to find another player or prospect capable of replacing his pop, though.

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Holiday shopping isn’t limited to citizens, as all 30 Major League Baseball teams continue to scour the market to find trades that will benefit them in 2017 and beyond. 

Just as all of us are doing deep research on whether The Last Guardian or Final Fantasy XV is the better holiday video-game release to purchase, front offices are vigorously debating the best way to approach things with a free-agent investment or deal will make the most impact. 

For the purposes of this discussion, let’s operate under the assumption deals will be the order of the day because they are often more interesting to dissect since two teams, in theory, stand to benefit from a trade. 

Dodgers Opening Path to Dozier

No team best exemplifies the fickle nature of offseason dealing than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who may be changing their tune about one of their best prospects in an effort to upgrade the MLB roster. 

Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the Dodgers are now showing a “willingness” to include right-handed pitcher Jose De Leon in a trade for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. 

This report comes two days after ESPN’s Doug Padilla reported the Dodgers were reluctant to build a package around De Leon for Dozier. 

De Leon was rated as the No. 33 prospect in baseball by MLB.com last season, with this glowing scouting report:

De Leon’s stuff significantly improved in pro ball after he upgraded his conditioning and mechanics. He works at 92-94 mph and can reach 96 mph with his fastball, which has riding life. De Leon’s changeup progressed so much in 2015 that it has become his best secondary pitch, and he also has a low-80s slider that’s effective.

De Leon made a brief appearance in the big leagues last season, posting a 6.35 ERA with 15 strikeouts and seven walks in 17 innings. 

Considering how bad the Twins pitching staff was in 2016, including getting the sixth-fewest innings (875.1) from their starters, it’s no wonder why they would be pursuing young, cost-controlled starters if they are going to deal Dozier. 

The Dodgers are in an interesting position, especially with their young pitchers. They are going to need a lot of depth since they will start 2017 with injury-prone starters Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Alex Wood penciled into the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. 

But they are also not in a position to wait for those young starters, like De Leon, to develop in the big leagues with a roster capable of making a deep playoff run. The biggest hole among their position players is at second base, which is currently unoccupied with Chase Utley being a free agent. 

Dozier would certainly be an upgrade over anything the Dodgers got at the position in 2016. He won’t hit 42 home runs, which was 14 more than he ever hit in a season, again. But even if he reverts back to his 2014 form with a .242/.345/.416 slash line with 23 home runs, that’s a win for them because he’s eight years younger than Utley and under contract through 2018. 

Rockies’ Blackmon Plan

The Colorado Rockies have had one of the most interesting offseasons to date, though not in ways that make them strong playoff contenders.

Ian Desmond had a fantastic first half in 2016 before reverting back to his 2015 self with a .237/.283/.347 line after the All-Star break, yet the Rockies decided to guarantee him five years and give up the No. 11 draft pick to do so. 

The Rockies followed that up by signing 31-year-old reliever Mike Dunn, who has a 3.54 career ERA and 1.37 WHIP, to a three-year deal that was announced on Thursday. 

One potential move that seemed like a foregone conclusion for the Rockies was a trade involving Charlie Blackmon, though that doesn’t seem likely given what they are asking in return. 

Per ESPN’s Jayson Stark, rival teams are less sure about Blackmon getting dealt because they will only do it if they receive “an Adam Eaton type deal.”

The Washington Nationals acquired Eaton from the Chicago White Sox for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. 

In case you are wondering what kind of package that is, MLB.com ranked Giolito as the No. 3 prospect in baseball, Lopez as the No. 38 prospect and Dunning was Washington’s No. 6 prospect. 

There are two key differences between Eaton and Blackmon, which make a comparable deal seem unlikely. The first—and most obvious—is contract status.

Eaton will make a total of $38.4 million on his current deal that runs through 2021, per Spotrac. Blackmon has just two more years of team control before he can become a free agent. 

The other major difference is Blackmon has played his entire career in Colorado, which has played a substantial role inflating his numbers since his MLB debut in 2011.

If teams could guarantee they were getting the Coors Field version of Blackmon, then his two years of control wouldn’t be as big of an issue in giving up a huge return. But Colorado has a knack for inflating numbers for pedestrian hitters, which is why the Rockies shouldn’t overplay their hand. 

Rays House of Pitchers

The Tampa Bay Rays are constantly exploring ways to improve their roster, mostly out of necessity because there is always a very-limited amount of money they can spend on talent, which is why rumblings of them dealing a starter have basically been non-stop for a year. 

Passan reported on Dec. 6 the Rays were “almost certain to deal a starter,” with Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb generating strong interest. 

However, there’s likely a reason nearly two weeks have passed with no deals involving Rays pitchers. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported on Dec. 10 they are “are seeking massive returns on just about everybody asked about.”

It’s certainly a reasonable position for the Rays to take. The starting-pitching market for free agents is dreadful, with Hill being the best available option before he re-signed with the Dodgers. 

Smyly is coming off a down year in 2016 with a 4.88 ERA in 175.1 innings, but he’s a left-hander under team control for two more seasons and has a 3.74 career ERA with 552 strikeouts in 570.1 innings since 2012. 

Cobb is a more interesting case because last year doesn’t really count. He returned on September 2 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014, so his 8.59 ERA in 22 innings comes with a huge asterisk. 

In 2013-14, Cobb was terrific with a 2.82 ERA with 283 strikeouts and just 262 hits allowed in 309.2 innings. He only has one more year of control left, leaving the Rays between a rock and a hard place.

On one hand, moving Cobb now could net a better return since a team acquiring him would receive a full year of starts from him. And on the chance his elbow flares up on him again, the Rays don’t have to worry about it. 

On the other hand, supposing Cobb puts together a strong first half, he could end up being one of the most attractive trade chips in July and get several contenders seeking another starter in a bidding war. 

It’s not an ideal situation for the Rays to be in, but they have proven in the past with players like Matt Moore they won’t hesitate to make a deal when they get an offer to their liking. 

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I hate to break it to the following MLB teams, but, um, well…it may be too late for them to save their best-laid plans for the winter.

In fairness, the hot stove season isn’t a walk in the park. It’s more like a stroll through a minefield. Things don’t always go as planned even for teams that carefully chart their courses.

We’re here to talk about four such teams. Their situations are largely different, but what they have in common is they’re now left to pick up the pieces from grand offseason plans that have fizzled. Some are in deeper trouble than others, such as the…

Miami Marlins

The Marlins were the little engine that could in 2016, staying in second place in the National League East until late August. But they started slipping in September and then experienced an unthinkable tragedy when ace pitcher Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident.

Mourning came first, but the Marlins were eventually going to have to address what was a mediocre starting rotation even despite Fernandez’s efforts. That put them in a bind with a free-agent market devoid of top-of-the-rotation talent.

Thus, the Marlins settled for a couple of depth signings with Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. Per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, their plan to get around their lack of starting talent was to instead filter talent into their bullpen. They wanted a “super pen.”

Not a bad idea! The Marlins bullpen was powerful and effective in 2016, averaging an NL-best 94.0 mph in fastball velocity with a solid 3.63 ERA. If they could add Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, they would indeed have a super pen that could downplay their weak starting rotation.

Well, nobody can say they didn’t try.

Heyman reported the Marlins were willing to go above $80 million to sign Chapman, but he took $86 million from the New York Yankees instead. According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, the Marlins offered Jansen more than the $80 million he accepted from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Like that, the Marlins whiffed on the guys who could have granted their wish. Plan B is looking less audacious.

The Marlins have signed Junichi Tazawa, who is perfectly serviceable but no more than that. Frisaro reported they’ve also signed Brad Ziegler, who is better but still not the shutdown reliever Miami desires.

The only way the Marlins can get back on that path is by turning to the trade market, where big targets like Zach Britton and David Robertson reside. But this is unrealistic. With a farm system that Baseball America ranked at No. 29 going into 2016, the Marlins are not well off with prospects. Also, it’s not good for their leverage that the word is out how badly they want an ace closer.

The Marlins might have had a shot at upsetting the 2017 NL East race if they’d gotten their super pen. But now whatever shot they have will be of the long variety. The Marlins weren’t better than the Washington Nationals or New York Mets in 2016, and they haven’t gotten better this winter.

But speaking of teams in the NL East with closer trouble…

Washington Nationals

Mind you, the Nationals aren’t quite in the same boat as the Marlins. They began the winter in a better place after winning 95 games and the NL East in 2016. They’ve also advanced forward. Despite some bellyaching to the contrary, their trade for Adam Eaton is just fine.

And yet Washington’s offseason is just as easily defined by its misses as by that one hit.

At one point, Heyman reported it had a “clear lead” in the sweepstakes for Chris Sale before he went to the Boston Red Sox. Per Heyman, it also made a run at Andrew McCutchen that didn’t pan out.

By that point, the Nationals had already missed out on re-signing Mark Melancon to fill their closer hole. According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, that prompted a run at Wade Davis. They then turned to Jansen after the Chicago Cubs traded for Davis. According to Sherman, he turned down more money to return to the Dodgers.

The good news despite all this is that a closer is all the Nationals need.

Getting Eaton instead of McCutchen filled their center field vacancy. Getting Sale would have been nice, but a rotation that posted a 3.60 ERA in 2016 didn’t need him. Also not to be forgotten is their decision to trade for a healthy Derek Norris rather than re-sign an injured Wilson Ramos to play catcher. As is, the Nationals are easily projected to win the 2017 NL East race at FanGraphs.

But while another NL East title would be nice, it’s a World Series the Nationals are after. And if recent Octobers have made anything clear, it’s that nothing helps translate regular-season success to postseason success quite like a deep and talented bullpen.

With only Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen possessing reliable arms, the Nationals don’t have one of those. Their best options for fixing that now reside on the trade market, where they figure to encounter a problem referenced above: a lack of leverage relating to their desperation being out in the open.

What’s most likely to happen is the Nationals going into 2017 without a true closer and winging it. Risky, but at least that sounds better than the situation in Pittsburgh…

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fell hard from grace in 2016, winning 20 fewer games than they did in 2015. Starting pitching that was normally good went bad, and McCutchen went from an MVP-caliber player to a replacement-level player.

It sure seemed like the Pirates were committed to solving the latter issue by trading McCutchen before his value can sink any further. A deal with the Nationals seemed inevitable during the winter meetings.

That fell through, and it’s prompted the club to start singing a different tune.

“Our intent coming in here was to have Andrew McCutchen in our lineup going forward. No one changed that,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said, via Adam Berry of MLB.com. “It’s unlikely that someone changes that going forward. We’re not going to close the door, but we’re not going to be making calls.”

If the latest from Heyman is any indication, the Pirates may indeed be taking a hardline stance on not wanting to force a trade:

With proper leverage, the Pirates might find a team willing to grant their wish. But with the Nationals filling their center field need with Eaton and the Texas Rangers filling theirs by re-signing Carlos Gomez, it doesn’t help their cause that the two best fits for McCutchen are now accounted for.

As for how McCutchen is holding up, it seems all the rumors put a chip on the former MVP’s shoulder.

“I didn’t like almost being traded,” he said Dec. 10, via Pirates Breakdown. “I don’t know anything outside of Pittsburgh. It’s very tough. It can be a part of the game.”

There’s a bridge to be repaired here. What could make that harder is that, per Heyman, the Pirates also want to discuss moving McCutchen out of center field and into a corner outfield spot. A sound idea, but awkward timing.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have done nothing to shore up their starting pitching woes.

Their best hope is to re-sign Ivan Nova, but even he could be outside their price range. MLB Trade Rumors projected him to earn $52 million this winter. That’s $13 million more than the Pirates have ever paid a free agent.

The Pirates could dip into their considerable prospect depth to try to make a splash on the trade market. But after it took a huge haul for the Red Sox to get Sale, it would probably take everything the Pirates had to land Jose Quintana or Chris Archer.

As if the Pirates needed another headache, third baseman Jung Ho Kang was recently arrested for DUI and is only a few months removed from a sexual assault allegation. Hint: Go buy stock in aspirin.

From rough seas in the Steel City, there ain’t no mountain high enough to keep us from diving into the weird times in Motown…

Detroit Tigers

Rather than give way to speculation the Tigers would break up after a second straight postseason-less year in 2016, GM Al Avila seemed to promise early in the winter they would.

“We want to get younger. We want to get leaner. We want to run the organization without having to go over our means,” Avila said in November to MLB.com’s Jason Beck. “We want to stay competitive, but at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for some time.”

Like that, it was easy to see all Detroit’s chips on the table. Justin Verlander was an option for starting pitcher-needy teams. Ian Kinsler was an asset on the second base market. Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez and Justin Upton could be marketed to teams in need of power.

Several weeks later, though, they’re all still there. And likely for good.

Due to his age and the size of his contract, Verlander will not yield the assets Sale did for the White Sox. The open market being loaded with sluggers has seemingly crushed the demand for Detroit’s sluggers. Kinsler has an obvious fit with the Dodgers, but his no-trade clause is a big hurdle in the way of a deal.

This puts the Tigers in a position to stay the course for 2017. With a good chunk of their core already past the age of 30, it’ll basically be a last hurrah.

Trouble is, the Tigers don’t project to be very good. FanGraphs has them down for 83 wins, putting them well short of the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central power structure.

Beyond merely being another disappointment, 2017 also has the capacity to set the Tigers’ future back by a few years. If all the above players regress from their 2016 performances, their trade value will slide accordingly. Whereas the Tigers might have been able to get talent for them now, they may only be able to dump their salaries later. That would be no help to a farm system that needs it.

Assuming they remain open for business, there’s still time for the Tigers to deal some of their veterans and take their first step toward a new era. But it seems more likely that step will not occur, pushing that new era even further into the realm of abstraction.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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It’s a story as old as Hollywood itself: A talented performer from the Midwest packs his or her bags and heads to Southern California to seek stardom.

If the Los Angeles Dodgers acquire Brian Dozier from the Minnesota Twins, that yarn could unspool on the MLB stage next season.

First, the latest rumor, courtesy of Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan:

We’ve heard Dozier-to-L.A. rumblings all offseason—it’s a marriage that makes sense, as Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer outlined.

Including Jose De Leon—the No. 6 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, per MLB.com—could accelerate talks, especially if Los Angeles adds high-upside ancillary pieces. 

It’s speculation, but let’s assume a swap is consummated before the spring thaw and Dozier dons blue in 2017.

If that happens, it could propel the 29-year-old second baseman into the big league firmament.

It’s not as if Dozier is invisible now. He was an All-Star in 2015 and went off last season, setting career highs in home runs (42), RBI (99) and OPS (.886).

Let’s face it, though: The Twins are the Twins. They toil in a small market and haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, two years before Dozier debuted.

In September, Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth outlined how the Twins’ futility diminished Dozier’s accomplishments:

Unfortunately, Dozier’s 2016, in which he could eclipse Davey Johnson’s 1973 record for home runs by a second baseman (43) and might very well become just the 13th player in history to hit 30 second-half homers, is the latest and most highly visible example of the lost season — a year extraordinary in individual significance but, sadly, ineffectual in its standings significance. 

Granted, Minnesota has produced its share of stars, from Rod Carew to Kirby Puckett.

Los Angeles, however, is where glitz meets glam. The Dodgers are baseball’s biggest spenders and, aside from the New York Yankees, arguably MLB’s most nationally and internationally visible franchise. 

They’re also good. After laying down almost $200 million to bring back left-hander Rich Hill, closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner, the Dodgers are positioned to reach the postseason for the fifth consecutive year. 

There’s no guarantee with the archrival San Francisco Giants and retooled Colorado Rockies lurking in the NL West. Netting Dozier, though, could push L.A. over the hump into full-fledged front-runner status. 

He’d add much-needed right-handed thump to the Dodgers’ lefty-heavy lineup and join a strong offensive core that includes Turner, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager.

It’s possible Dozier’s numbers could dip at Chavez Ravine. Dodger Stadium was the second-least hitter-friendly yard in the game last season, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Minnesota’s Target Field checked in at No. 9.

Dozier, however, has even career home/road splits, which suggests his bat plays anywhere.

Steamer projects a notable decline in home run production from Dozier in 2017, from 42 to 27, per FanGraphs. Something in the neighborhood of 30 homers from the second base position, though, would still make him a top-tier player. Add the L.A. publicity bump, and we’re talking another All-Star nod and notoriety aplenty.

How is Dozier handling the chatter?

“It can get overwhelming at times,” he said, per USA Today‘s Gabe Lacques. “I’m not going to sit here and lie to you and not look at the online [trade] stuff, because I do. It’s my career; you want to see how other teams value you, evaluate you and what the Twins think of you.”

If he thinks this is overwhelming, wait till he gets a load of the SoCal spotlight. If he gets a load of it, that is. 

Dozier can see past the glare. He’s already one of the game’s top second basemen. Now, he has a chance to pack his bags and aim even higher.

Take heed, Tinseltown—it could be one heck of a story.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Miami Marlins and free-agent relief pitcher Brad Ziegler agreed to a two-year contract worth $16 million plus incentives, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal on Friday. 

MLB.com’s Joe Frisario later confirmed Rosenthal‘s reports. 

The 37-year-old has been one of baseball’s most underrated relievers over his nine professional seasons. 

With the Oakland Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks and, most recently, the Boston Red Sox for half of a season, Ziegler has posted a career 2.44 ERA with a WHIP of 1.228, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

He’s been close to lights-out over the past two seasons, posting a 1.85 ERA and 30 saves in 66 appearances during 2015 with the Diamondbacks. 

Ziegler racked up 13 saves and a 2.82 ERA in 36 games in 2016 before he was dealt to the Red Sox. In Boston, he allowed just five earned runs in 29.2 innings as more of a middle reliever:

A sidearm delivery, which at times can dip down to almost that of the submarine variety, has made Ziegler such a tough pitcher to read.

The various arm angles, especially from an unorthodox position, camouflage the ball in a way that makes the batter unable to pick the ball up as quickly as a pitcher with an overhand delivery. 

It’s a much-needed acquisition for the Marlins bullpen, which lost out on big-time free agents Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman this offseason but did manage to sign former Red Sox reliever Junichi Tazawa on Friday, via ESPN.com.

Now with Ziegler joining him in Miami, the Marlins have more options alongside A.J. Ramos for late-inning situations come 2017. 

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Although closer Aroldis Chapman helped deliver the Chicago Cubs a World Series title last season, he delivered a parting shot Friday after his return to the New York Yankees became official.

The Cuban superstar told reporters he wasn’t a fan of the manner in which Cubs manager Joe Maddon deployed him during the World Series: “Personally, I don’t agree with the way he used me, but he is the manager and he has the strategy. My job is to be ready, to be ready to pitch, however that is, however many innings that is, I need to be ready for that. I need to go in and do my job.”

Chapman pointed specifically to Game 6, which saw him throw 20 pitches and record four outs after throwing 42 pitches and recording eight outs in Game 5: “There were couple of games, but the one I can point to is Game 6. The game was open and I don’t think he needed to [leave] me in the ninth. The important game was going to be Game 7 because we had that game almost won. The next day I came in tired.”

Chapman’s fatigue showed in Game 7, as he blew a save by surrendering three hits and two earned runs in 1.1 innings.

He did pick up the victory, though, as the Cubbies regained the lead, and Mike Montgomery closed it out.

Although Chapman questioned Maddon’s tactics in retrospect, he said he did not voice concern with his former manager at the time and believed it was important to be ready in any and all situations:

I never told him about my opinion with the way he was using me. The way I feel as baseball players we are warriors. Our job is to be ready to do what we need to do on the field. They send me out there to pitch, I’m going to go out there and pitch.

If I’m healthy, I’m going to go out there and pitch. If I’m tired, I’m going to put that aside and just get through it. It is kind of like a warrior, they send you somewhere and you have to go there and your mentality is you have to go there and do your job.

The Cubs acquired Chapman as a rental from the Yanks prior to the trade deadline last season, but he is a Bronx Bomber once again after signing a five-year, $86 million contract, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

New York traded for the fireballer last offseason, and he was suspended for the first 30 games under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy.

Upon his return, Chapman settled in as the Yankees closer behind Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, and he excelled with a 3-0 record, 2.01 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 44 strikeouts in 31.1 innings and 20 saves in 21 chances while donning pinstripes.

Chapman was even better down the stretch with the Cubs, postseason struggles notwithstanding.

The 28-year-old veteran will be New York’s closer once again in 2017, and although Miller is with the Cleveland Indians, Betances will serve in a setup role to reprise two-thirds of the “DMC” relief trio.

Maddon’s decisions weren’t optimal for Chapman ahead of his attempt to cash in during free agency, but everything worked out in the end, as the Cubs ended a historic title drought and Chapman landed a historic contract.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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The big story coming into Major League Baseball’s offseason was how teams would play the trade market, because this year’s crop of free agents wasn’t particularly impressive. 

This has already played out in a huge way with the Chicago White Sox officially entering rebuilding mode by trading Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox and Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals in the span of 24 hours. 

Despite those moves, there are still deals to be made. It always comes down to finding one team willing to pay the price another team has established. The Red Sox and Nationals have aggressive general managers with teams in win-now mode. 

Few teams operate like that for various reasons, but the allure of winning a championship now or getting key pieces to do it in the future makes for interesting points of discussion. 

Dozier Still on Dodgers’ Radar

The Los Angeles Dodgers answered their two biggest free-agent question marks with Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reporting Kenley Jansen agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reporting third baseman Justin Turner agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal. 

Those deals, while certainly notable, also represent the Dodgers’ status quo. They have been part of postseason heartbreaks each of the previous two years against the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. 

Now, the real test for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will be to find missing pieces to get his team over that hump and into the World Series for the first time since 1988. 

Per ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla, the Dodgers are still showing interest in trading for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. 

However, Padilla did note a potential deal for Dozier would likely require the Dodgers to part with star pitching prospect Jose De Leon and that they “are reluctant to part with” him. 

Second base remains an alarming black hole for the Dodgers right now. Chase Utley was a good platoon player in 2016, hitting .273/.343/.425 against right-handed pitching and just .154/.206/.264 against lefties.

Utley’s not a long-term solution. He turns 38 on Friday but might end up being the default solution for the team if it can’t figure out a possible trade. 

It makes sense for the Twins to try trading Dozier now when his value is never going to be higher. He’s coming off a career year in which he hit 42 home runs and signed for a total of $15 million through 2018, per Baseball-Reference.com.

The Dodgers learned last year how valuable depth is after tying a dubious MLB record with 27 players spending time on the disabled list.

It becomes harder to make a trade, which will likely require at least two high-quality assets going back to Minnesota in return, but the Dodgers have been so close to the World Series over the last four years. At some point, being overaggressive to upgrade a position of desperate need makes sense. 

Friedman is not one to overreact to what’s happening with teams around him, though I never would have expected him to give a reliever five years on a contract before Jansen proved me wrong. 

Gray’s Limited Market

Any hopes the Oakland Athletics might have had about building a blockbuster trade package around starting pitcher Sonny Gray appear to be dashed, at least so far this offseason. 

Per Rosenthal, Gray is generating “little interest” from around the league. 

It’s certainly not hard to figure out why Gray’s market would be limited.

He spent time on the disabled list last season, making just 22 starts (his fewest in three full MLB seasons) and posted career-worst marks in ERA (5.69), WHIP (1.496), hits allowed per nine innings (10.2), home runs allowed per nine innings (1.4), strikeouts per nine innings (7.2), strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.24) and wins above replacement (-0.5), per Baseball-Reference.com. 

Despite those numbers, Gray figures to get a substantial raise in 2017, the first year he’s eligible for arbitration. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors estimates the 27-year-old will make $3.7 million. 

Salary isn’t going to be an issue holding teams back from acquiring Gray. It’s just hard to figure out what kind of pitcher he will be moving forward. 

If the A’s tried to trade Gray last offseason, right after he finished third in the American League Cy Young voting, they could have asked for a package fairly close to what the White Sox received for Chris Sale because he’s under team control through 2019. 

Unfortunately, Gray doesn’t look the part of a No. 1 starter. He’s listed at 5’10” and 190 pounds on the A’s official website. Given his small stature, teams can look at his breakdown in 2016 as an indication the heavy workload from the previous two seasons caught up to him. 

The A’s don’t have to be in a rush to trade Gray, especially with his value at its lowest point. Keeping him to start 2017 while hoping he can re-establish himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter in order to trade him in July or next offseason makes sense for the franchise. 

The Bruce Dilemma

The New York Mets hoped when they acquired Jay Bruce in July that he would provide a similar spark to what they received from Yoenis Cespedes the previous year. 

Instead, Bruce floundered in 50 games with the Mets. He hit .219/.294/.391 in 169 at-bats with the team and is scheduled to earn $13 million in 2017, per Spotrac. 

The Mets are in a difficult spot right now with too many outfielders, particularly in corner spots, for too few spots. Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are all in the mix. 

Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets would prefer to deal Bruce instead of Granderson. 

Marc Carig of Newsday noted the Mets were “optimistic” about their chances of finding a taker for Bruce at the winter meetings, only to leave Washington D.C. with the same logjam they had when they arrived. 

Given Bruce’s high salary and mediocre performance over the last three seasons, which has been worth a total of 0.2 FanGraphs‘ wins above replacement, the market won’t be clamoring for that kind of player. 

Cespedes will likely end up starting the year in center field, despite FanGraphs noting he cost the Mets seven runs in less than 500 innings at the position last season, because the team doesn’t have anyone else for the position. 

Juan Lagares is a tremendous defensive center fielder, but no team can support a .298 career-on base percentage from the position. 

Conforto needs to start playing regularly, or else the Mets run the risk of completely running off one of their best young players. Granderson is going to play because he’s a better option than Bruce at this point. 

It’s not a good situation the Mets have put themselves in, though they may not have a way out of it unless they decide to trade a player like Granderson or Conforto, both of whom will be more intriguing to teams in search of outfield help. 

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Not every baseball fan keeps an eye on prospect development and the minor league ranks, but most are familiar with the top prospects around the league.

It wasn’t just Boston Red Sox fans and Washington Nationals fans whose ears perked up when they heard that Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito had been traded during the winter meetings.

So what exactly is it that makes a previously unheralded prospect a household name? We’ll lump them into two categories:

• Breakout Prospect: If a lower-level prospect turns in a breakout season that vaults him into the top tier of prospects in his organization and perhaps onto leaguewide top-100 lists, there’s a good bet he’ll become a household name along the way.

• MLB Impact: Even if a player is not a top-tier prospect, he can make a name for himself by contributing at the MLB level. Few knew who Ryon Healy was prior to the 2016 season, but a strong showing after he joined the Oakland Athletics made him a household name.

Ahead we’ve taken a crack at identifying one prospect from each MLB team that has a chance of falling into one of those two categories this coming season.

For the sake of clearly identifying which prospects already rank as household names, anyone that appeared on Baseball America‘s midseason top-100 list was not eligible to be included.

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