Kuzul

We’re still over a month away from pitchers and catchers making their way to sunny Arizona or Florida, and the hot stove has cooled considerably, so now seems like the perfect time for an updated look at how all 30 MLB farm system stack up.

A handful of early offseason trades and a pair of winter meetings blockbusters have provided us with plenty of updating to be done since these rankings were last updated following the conclusion of the MiLB season.

We’ll likely update and tweak the rankings a few times before the start of the regular season, but the following will serve as a baseline for offseason prospect talks going forward.

The following factors helped determine the rankings of players and teams:

• Potential (Player): Potential trumps production a lot of the time, especially in the lower levels of the minors and with recent draft picks. Skill set and overall tools are often a better indication of what kind of player a guy will be in the future.

• Talent (Player): As for guys in the higher levels of the minors who are close to breaking through at the big league level, production and current talent level are the determining factors, as these players are viewed as more complete products.

• Overall Depth (Team): Having one or two elite prospects is great, but having a deep farm system from top to bottom is the way to build a sustainable contender. The overall depth and level of talent was the biggest factor in ranking each team.

• High-End Talent (Team): That being said, there is a difference between a prospect who has a chance of making an impact at the big league level and a prospect who could be a star. Elite prospects served as a tiebreaker of sorts when two teams were close in the rankings.

We’ve incorporated a tier system to help differentiate between the different levels of talent. Here’s a quick explanation: 

• Tier 1: Prospects who have an elite skill set and legitimate All-Star potential. This is the cream of the crop.

• Tier 2: Prospects who have a good chance of becoming at least a contributor at the MLB level. This is where most prospects on the following list will fall.

• Tier 3: Prospects who profile as fringe MLB contributors or young prospects who are still too raw to project any higher. Having one of these players ranked among your top 10 prospects is a good indication of a thin system.

Along with an updated list of the top 10 prospects for each team, you’ll also find some general analysis on each team’s top prospects and the outlook of the farm system as a whole.

A player must not have passed the rookie-eligibility limits (130 AB, 50 IP, 45 days on roster) to be eligible for inclusion in these rankings.

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Nobody’s going to criticize the New York Mets for re-signing Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $110 million deal. Despite already having a full complement of outfielders under contract, Cespedes is unquestionably the key piece of the team’s offense.

But with Cespedes back in the fold, this glut of outfielders has limited the Mets’ ability to improve elsewhere—namely in the bullpen.

“It’s like buying a new house without selling your old one,” Mets general manager Sandy Alderson remarked in early December, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “Sometimes you get stuck in the transition, and it’s not a good place to be.”

No, it’s not. 

But there’s a market for some of those excess outfielders, namely Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson. In fact, the Mets could potentially unload one of them in exchange for one of the players we’re about to look at—a New Jersey native who would represent a major addition to their relief corps.

As for the rest of the targets on this list, the Mets’ odds of adding them likely depends on just how much payroll room they’re able to create.

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Signing All-Star closer Mark Melancon to a four-year, $62 million deal was a necessary move for the San Francisco Giants, but it was one that has seemingly limited the team’s ability to improve the roster elsewhere.

“I don’t think there’s anything more to ask of ownership,” general manager Bobby Evans said, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s more what I can do with what we have.”

That’s understandable for a team with one of the game’s highest payrolls, but if the Giants are going to put an end to Los Angeles’ run of four consecutive National League West crowns, they’re going to have to plug holes in left field and at third base.

What follows is a look at five players, both free agents and trade acquisitions, that the Giants could reasonably target to fill those holes—assuming that ownership is willing to stretch the budget just a bit more than it already has.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks announced Tuesday the organization filed a lawsuit against the Maricopa County Stadium District over money for capital repairs of Chase Field. 

Steve Gilbert of MLB.com passed along a statement from D-backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick, who said the decision to bring the suit came after the sides couldn’t reach an agreement:

It is extremely unfortunate that we have been forced to take action today following several years of attempts to resolve this matter out of court. We have made a promise to our fans, who have been partners with us on the building of this stadium and our franchise, to provide the best experience in all of baseball in a safe and welcoming environment. The inability of the Maricopa County Stadium District to fulfill its commitments has left us with no other option.

The Maricopa County Stadium District conducted an assessment of Chase Field, which opened in 1998, and it determined $185 million in upgrades were needed, according to the MLB.com report. The sides have remained at odds about how to pay the costs.

The report noted the Diamondbacks believe the Stadium District is responsible for $135 million of those fees. The team has offered to pay for the improvements in exchange for more stadium flexibility, including booking the park when it’s not being used for baseball, but the district declined that offer.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press provided a response from Maricopa County officials, who were prepared to sell Chase Field to private investors last summer before the deal reached a roadblock with the team:

It is disappointing the Diamondbacks are suing their fans who helped build Chase Field. The team simply wants out of the contract that makes them stay and play through the 2028 season. Saying the facility is in disrepair is outrageous. The Maricopa County Stadium District has spent millions during the off-season on concrete and steel work that keeps the stadium safe and looking great for each baseball season.

Kendrick agreed the stadium isn’t a danger to fans heading into the 2017 season, per MLB.com.

“Our fans can rest assured that today’s filing will have absolutely no impact on the day-to-day operations of the D-backs and the upcoming season and that for 2017, Chase Field is completely safe,” he said.

In addition, MLB.com noted D-backs attorney Leo R. Beus stated the organization isn’t seeking any money from the county or the taxpayers as part of the lawsuit. Instead it’s asking the court to remove a “contract restriction” that prevents it from exploring other stadium options.

The Diamondbacks averaged 25,138 fans across their 81 home games in 2016, a number that ranked 21st of the league’s 30 teams, according to ESPN.com. Chase Field’s 1998 debut date leaves it in the middle of the pack in terms of age, checking in as the 14th-oldest MLB facility.

Arizona is slated to open its 2017 home schedule with a game against the San Francisco Giants on Sunday, April 2.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Major League Baseball already has a $300 million contract. Its first $400 million contract could come soon.

Call it a hunch based on where Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are in their careers.

The Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman and the Washington Nationals’ right fielder have much in common. Both were elite prospects before they hit the ground running in the majors in 2012. Both have been among the best at their respective positions since then. Both are just 24 years old. And both are slated to hit free agency after the 2018 season.

Thus, the occasional buzz about one of them being baseball’s first $400 million man. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the latest to float that figure over Harper’s head. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (h/t ESPN.com’s Kyle Brasseur) hung the figure over Machado’s head last summer.

The ideal scenario is for both of them to get $400 million, as Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs highlighted in 2015 how players weren’t getting their fair share of baseball’s revenue pie. Two $400 million contracts would go a longer way toward fixing that than just one.

But we must be practical. It’s likely that only one of them will break the $400 million barrier. Assuming that’s a matter of who’s more deserving, we must pit Machado and Harper against each other in relevant categories.

Upside

Upside, eh? Well, only one of the players in this discussion has authored one of baseball’s all-time greatest seasons.

Remember Harper’s 2015 season? Yup, that’s the one.

He led MLB in on-base percentage (.460) and slugging percentage (.649) and co-led the National League with 42 home runs. By OPS+, his offensive performance was the best since Barry Bonds in 2004. Baseball-Reference.com put Harper’s wins above replacement at 9.9—a mark that’s been reached only 61 other times among hitters.

Harper’s defining characteristics in 2015 were his advanced approach and his booming power. The former has roots in the 13.5 walk percentage he posted in the minors. The latter had scouts drooling even before he was the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. Baseball America rated Harper’s power as a true 80-grade tool.

As such, Harper’s 2015 was less of a random flare-up and more of an inevitability. That was the player he was supposed to be—and, thus, could be again.

For his part, Machado is no slouch. He was worth 6.7 WAR in 2013 and found that same neighborhood in 2015 (7.1) and 2016 (6.7). The first time he did it, he was an otherworldly defender with a decent bat. He’s enjoyed the best of both worlds since 2015, averaging a 130 OPS+ and 36 homers while playing defense that, while short of otherworldly, is still great. Either way, we’re talking superstar-level stuff.

However, whether Machado can get any better is a good question.

Baseball America figured he would be only a 20-homers-per-year guy, so he’s already way ahead of those early power projections. His power did tick upward after first exploding in 2015, but not to a degree that suggests he has a bunch more in the tank.

The jury’s also out on whether Machado can amplify his hitting talent with increased patience. He took a big step forward in that department in 2015, lowering his swing and chase rates and drawing more walks. But that didn’t last, as his improvements regressed in 2016.

This is not to say Machado’s game can’t evolve. It’s just to say he seems to be what he is: a superstar for sure, but one without Harper’s upside.

Advantage: Harper

Consistency

Upside is well and good, but what would a team with a $400 million contract offer in hand rather have: a guy who can be great, or a guy who it can count on being great?

Given the size of the bet being made, probably the latter, right?

So let’s confront the elephant that was stampeding through the room marked “Upside.”

Harper owns the best individual season of these two, but Machado is having the better career. He’s been worth 3.2 more WAR than Harper despite playing in 49 fewer games. He’s also topped six WAR thrice to Harper’s once.

There haven’t been wild fluctuations in Machado’s performance like there have been in Harper’s. If we line up their yearly OPS+ numbers, for example, we see a squiggly line and a relatively straight one:

On the whole, Harper’s career 137 OPS+ trumps Machado’s 117 OPS+. But based on the early portion of his career, how consistently Harper’s going to live up to his career mark is anyone’s guess. There’s nothing in Machado’s track record, meanwhile, that suggests similar peaks and valleys are imminent.

On the other side of the ball, Machado’s defense peaked in 2013, when he put up a 31.2 ultimate zone rating and 35 defensive runs saved. But on either side of that are well-above-average performances. In total, he’s been an elite defender through the lens of either UZR or DRS.

Harper’s defensive performance is tougher to pin down due to how much he’s moved around the outfield. He’s mostly been good, compiling a 17.4 ultimate zone rating and 24 defensive runs saved. But rather than maintaining a baseline of above-average defense like Machado has, Harper has had years when his defense has been rated negatively by UZR or DRS.

Bottom line: Based on their performances to this point, only one of these guys is a safe bet to be a great player in any given year.

Advantage: Machado

Durability

And now for the fundamental reason why Harper’s performances have fluctuated so wildly: The dude can’t stay healthy.

We got an inkling of that in 2013 and 2014, when Harper was limited to 218 games due to major injuries to his knee and thumb that were accompanied by a handful of nagging injuries.

The bright side at the time seemed to be that he could avoid further trouble by looking after himself on the field, which he vowed to do ahead of 2015.

“It’s more impact stuff. Hitting the wall, blowing the bursa. Sliding into third base on a triple and tearing my tendon,” he said of his injury troubles that spring, via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. “So, this year, I’ll just play a little smarter.”

This paid off, as Harper played in 153 games in 2015. Nonetheless, it turned out his problems weren’t solved for good. Although he played in 147 games in 2016, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reported Harper was plagued by a shoulder issue that hindered him at the plate and in the field.

The black marks on Machado’s record are the knee issues he ran into in 2013 and 2014. A ligament tear in his left knee ended his ’13 season early. A year later, an injury to the same ligament in his right knee ended his ’14 season early. But then he came back and played in all 162 games in 2015 and in 157 games in 2016. In all, he’s played in more games over the last two seasons than just one player.

This is a comparison between one guy who’s not past his injury troubles and one who is. Neither is Cal Ripken Jr., but one is more Cal Ripken-y than the other.

Looking forward, Machado is no more likely to be beat up by third base than Harper is by right field. The list of guys who played regularly at third base after 30 and the list of guys who played regularly in right field after 30 look awfully similar.

Advantage: Machado

Survey Says: Machado

There are other factors that could be weighed here. Marketability, for example. Blockbuster movies need lead actors who look good on posters. All other things being equal, baseball teams prefer to operate similarly.

But that may be a moot point in this case because all other things aren’t equal.

Harper has the talent to be worth a $400 million contract. And while he’s only put that talent on full display just once so far, that could obviously change in 2017 or 2018. He has the ability and the time to shift the nature of the conversation.

But if things stay the way they are now, Machado is the safer bet for a $400 million contract. Even if he never gets any better, he’s good enough now and should remain good enough from both a talent and durability perspective.

Again, here’s hoping both land $400 million contracts. But if only one of them can, right now it’s clear who that one should be.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers have spent the offseason getting the band back together, re-signing closer Kenley Jansen, left-hander Rich Hill and third baseman Justin Turner.

There’s nothing wrong with that. The trio were key contributors in 2016 and among the top free agents at their respective positions.

If the Dodgers are going to secure a fifth straight National League West crown, however, and win their first title since 1988, they need to keep shopping. Specifically, Los Angeles has holes to plug in the bullpen, the outfield and, most glaringly, at second base.

Let’s examine a few realistic trade and free-agent targets, with the operative word being “realistic.” Not all of these deals will happen, but they’re tied to credible rumors—or at least informed speculation—and a sense of the Dodgers’ needs and resources.

We’ll begin with a right-handed reliever formerly employed by the Dodgers’ hated rivals and end with a power-hitting second baseman who simply makes too much sense to ignore.

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The deadline for voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America to submit their 2017 Hall of Fame ballots was Dec. 31. In the interest of keeping us all in suspense, however, the results won’t be announced until Jan. 18.

In the meantime, here’s a final look at this year’s candidates, their HOF cases and the chances they’ll punch a ticket to Cooperstown.

We have some data to go on. First, there are past vote totals for players who have been on the ballot before. Second, and even more revealingly, there’s the count of public ballots compiled by the indefatigable Ryan Thibodaux.

This year’s class is a fascinating one, populated by a number of borderline cases sure to spark debate, two titans of the steroid era who are gaining momentum and one worthy but long-spurned leadoff man on the verge of breaking through.

Note that we’re only discussing players who have a statistical shot at reaching the 75 percent threshold needed for induction based on the public count. Here’s a list of some notable names who’ve been eliminated for this year, though all appear likely to get the 5 percent necessary to stay on the ballot with the exception of Lee Smith, who is in his final year of eligibility:

• Jeff Kent, INF

• Fred McGriff, 1B

• Jorge Posada, C

• Manny Ramirez, OF

• Gary Sheffield, OF

• Lee Smith, RHP

• Sammy Sosa, OF

• Billy Wagner, LHP

• Larry Walker, OF

Feel free to cast your votes in the comments and proceed when ready.

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Outfielder Rajai Davis signed with the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported Davis’ one-year deal worth $6 million from the A’s. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirmed the deal, adding Davis can receive another $450,000 in performance bonuses.

Davis, 36, had a solid season in 2016 for the Cleveland Indians, hitting .249 with 12 home runs, 48 RBI, 74 runs scored and an AL-high 43 stolen bases. While he is probably best served platooning in the outfield—he often sat against left-handed pitching with the Indians—he can still offer solid production.

He has a .780 career OPS against left-handed pitching, but he actually hit better against righties (.708) than southpaws (.670) in 2016, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

While Davis’ offensive numbers were nothing special, he provided one of 2016’s most dramatic moments with a game-tying two-run homer off Chicago Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman in the eighth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. 

Davis is also still a terror on the basepaths, giving him a lot of value for an Oakland team that only stole 50 bases in 2016, the fifth-lowest mark in the majors. His defense in center has been all over the place throughout his career, with FanGraphs noting he cost Cleveland five runs at the position last season. 

Going to Oakland’s spacious coliseum likely won’t improve Davis’ defensive metrics, but his speed and ability to create scoring opportunities on the bases make him a worthy investment for the A’s. 

There may be questions about whether Davis can sustain his level of play, as he’s well into his 30s. He was a pleasant surprise for Cleveland in 2016, and his play was a big reason for the club’s Cinderella postseason run.

If Davis can replicate his success from last season, the A’s will have landed one of the better low-key free-agent signings.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Colorado Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon has seen his name crop up in trade talks this winter, and they have continued into the new year. 

Continue for updates.

Blue Jays Have Inquired About Blackmon

Tuesday, Jan. 3

According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Toronto Blue Jays have spoken with the Rockies regarding a deal involving Blackmon, but negotiations “do not appear to have much momentum right now.”

Blackmon has been a serviceable outfielder on a Rockies team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2009, one season before the 30-year-old made his major league debut. 

He’s coming off a career year in 2016 in which he batted .324 with 29 home runs and 82 RBI. All of those marks are career bests, and he won his first Silver Slugger Award.

But the Rockies could be faced with a crowded outfield after acquiring Ian Desmond during the winter meetings. It all depends on where they will play him, though. 

Coming up as a shortstop, Desmond spent his first seven professional seasons with the Washington Nationals at that position before moving to center field with the Texas Rangers for one year in 2016. 

If the Rockies were to use Desmond as a center fielder, Blackmon all of a sudden becomes expendable with Gerardo Parra in left field and Carlos Gonzalez in right. 

According to MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm on Dec. 26, Colorado had already offered Blackmon to the Blue Jays in return for starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, but Toronto did not want to part with its young arm. 

Chisholm also added that the Blue Jays “would love to acquire Blackmon,” but “it just doesn’t seem possible.”

The Rockies’ depth chart, which was last updated on Dec. 31, lists Desmond as the team’s starting first baseman with Blackmon securely starting in center. 

If the plan is to keep Desmond in the infield, then there shouldn’t be many reasons to part with Blackmon given his production in 2016 unless the return is far too great to turn down. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Cincinnati Reds reached an agreement Tuesday with veteran relief pitcher Drew Storen on a contract for 2017. 

The Reds officially announced Storen signed a one-year deal on Twitter. Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported the deal is worth $3 million with a $1.5 million performance bonus and a $500,000 bonus if he’s traded.

Storen struggled with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP across 38 appearances, after getting shipped north of the border by the Washington Nationals last offseason. A second trade in seven months, this time to the Seattle Mariners in July, helped him get back on track.

The 29-year-old reliever finished with a 3.44 ERA and 0.87 WHIP while striking out 16 batters in 18.1 innings down the stretch for the Mariners. Those numbers were more in line with what the former Nats closer accomplished during his time in the nation’s capital.

Bob Dutton of the News Tribune passed along comments from Storen about working his way back into high-leverage situations in Seattle after sliding down the bullpen pecking order in Toronto:

I enjoy those situations because you’re just rolling off adrenaline. I’ve been in those situations before—usually because of my fault. It’s a good spot. That’s a really important part of the game, and it allows me to be the bridge to the flames we have coming out at the back. Those guys are just coming out and attacking people.

In addition, showing he could be trusted in the late innings helped bolster his stock heading into the offseason after it took a downward turn for a while.

Storen has become more comfortable with his changeup over the past few years, but he still relies predominately on his sinker and slider. When he’s commanding those two pitches effectively, he can provide a lot of valuable innings out of the pen.

In the end, the Reds decided he was worth the investment as they worked to upgrade the bullpen during the offseason. It’s a signing that probably won’t garner much attention given the crowded reliever market, but it’s still a solid addition.

The Reds are in the process of rebuilding, which is why they aren’t looking to make many long-term investments. Bullpen depth is essential for the team in 2017 after its starting pitchers threw 859 innings last season, fewest in MLB. 

It’s also a wise move for Storen to start next season with a team like the Reds. He will likely be used in high-leverage situations early in the year, and if he is successful, there’s always a market from contending teams for relievers at the trade deadline. 

His exact role in the pen probably won’t be known until close to Opening Day. He could work himself into the seventh or eighth inning with a strong spring training. And it’s a bonus that he has closing experience should the need arise during the year.

The deal does come with some risk when you factor in his struggles with the Blue Jays. But the upside outweighs the downside when taking his whole track record into account and where the Reds are at starting next season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com