Archive for January, 2017

Chicago Cubs’ Top Free-Agent, Trade Targets Post New Year

Fresh off a long-awaited World Series title and with a young core that rivals any in baseball, the Chicago Cubs entered the offseason with a fairly short to-do list.

Wade Davis and Koji Uehara have been added to the back of the bullpen, and veteran outfielder Jon Jay was signed to pair with Albert Almora Jr. in replacing Dexter Fowler in center field.

With those moves made, there appear to be two major areas the team may still look to address before the starting of spring training:

  • Starting pitching depth: The departure of Jason Hammel will likely push Mike Montgomery into the starting rotation as the No. 5 starter behind the returning staff of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey. Also, losing Travis Wood and Trevor Cahill leaves the team without much in the way of depth, so at the very least a capable arm or two that can be stashed in Triple-A seems like a must.
  • Left-handed reliever: With Montgomery slated to start and Wood unlikely to be re-signed, the Cubs top lefty relief option is currently veteran Brian Duensing, who was signed to a one-year, $2 million deal. Rule 5 pick Blake Smith and waiver claims Jake Leathersich and David Rollins are also options, but the team would benefit from a better primary lefty option.

So who might the team be targeting to fill these areas of need?

Ahead is a look at five players who make sense as perhaps the finishing touch on what would be another successful offseason for the defending champions.

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MLB Trade Ideas Based on Offseason Week 10 News, Rumors and Speculation

Unlike the rest of the baseball universe, MLB‘s rumor mill doesn’t get time off to partake in New Year’s Eve festivities. There are no parties or concerts; no hanging out in New York’s Time Square to watch former pop sensations suffer embarrassing “technical difficulties.”

While the first week of a New Year is too early to proclaim that MLB teams still looking to improve their rosters are facing difficulties of their own in that regard, the clock has officially begun to tick. With just over six weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, time is not on their side.

As luck would have it, there are still a slew of notable names who remain available on the free-agent market and some clubs that remain open for business on the trade front. The opportunity to improve remains alive. What follows is a look at four trades that would help teams do just that.

Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there’s no indication any of them have been discussed.

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Boston Red Sox’s Top Free-Agent, Trade Targets Post-New Year

With 2017 officially here and spring training just around the corner, the Boston Red Sox have the luxury of already having checked the big boxes on their offseason to-do list.

They didn’t need much to begin with but made a splash anyway by adding Chris Sale, Mitch Moreland and Tyler Thornburg and jettisoning Clay Buchholz. A Red Sox team that won the AL East in 2016 is now projected by FanGraphs to be the American League‘s best in 2017.

“If we started spring training right now, we would be content where we are,” Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said after Buchholz was traded, via Tim Britton of the Providence Journal.

However, we should stop short of seeing the 2017 Red Sox as a finished product. They do have lingering questions to answer, so let’s look at five free-agent and trade targets who could answer them.

     

1. Trevor Plouffe

As of now, the Red Sox have Pablo Sandoval penciled in at third base. It’s an upside play in light of his improved conditioning, but also a risky play in light of his disastrous 2015 and injury-shortened 2016.

Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors is right in thinking that third base insurance tops Boston’s remaining needs. The free-agent market has just the guy for it: Trevor Plouffe.

The Red Sox seem to already know this. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported in late December that they have their eye on Plouffe, who spent his first seven seasons with the Minnesota Twins.

Beyond the fact he can likely be had on a cheap one-year contract, Plouffe’s appeal is his solid track record. The 30-year-old has been a league-average hitter in 723 major league games. He’s also played mostly passable defense at the hot corner.

If Sandoval were to prove up to the challenge he’s facing, Plouffe could also serve the Red Sox as a platoon bat. He’s a right-handed hitter with an .809 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also has experience at first base, left field, right field, second base and shortstop in addition to third base. 

Of course, Plouffe may prefer a more direct opportunity to be an everyday player on another team. That’s why the Red Sox need a Plan B, such as…

    

2. Adam Rosales

Plouffe isn’t the only right-handed utility type the Red Sox have on their radar. According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, Adam Rosales is on there as well.

As well he should be. Rosales isn’t so much a utility man as he is the utility man. He’s played at least 80 games at all four infield positions and also has some experience in left field and right field.

What Plouffe has that Rosales doesn’t is an offensive track record. Rosales is only a .227 career hitter with a .665 OPS, making him an easily below-average hitter.

However, Rosales is coming off a breakthrough in his age-33 season in 2016. He put up a career-high .814 OPS with 13 home runs for the San Diego Padres. He backed all this up with a 36.9 hard-hit percentage, a career best by plenty.

Rosales is certainly more appealing as a platoon player than as a possible everyday third baseman. But if he were to pick up where he left off on offense, he would have more than just a steady glove to offer while playing the hot corner.

The Red Sox need a Plan C in their search for a third base/utility type. He might be a long shot, but there’s one guy on the trade market who sticks out…

       

3. Hernan Perez

The Red Sox may have missed their shot at acquiring Hernan Perez. If they really wanted him, they may have found a way to include him in the trade that brought Thornburg from the Milwaukee Brewers for Travis Shaw.

But never say never.

Perez quietly found his stride in 2016. The 25-year-old played in 123 games and posted a .730 OPS with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases. He mostly played third base but also some right field, second base and first base.

Perez’s 2016 breakout didn’t end when the MLB season ended. He also starred (h/t Jim Goulart of Brewerfan.net, via Brew Crew Ball) in the Venezuelan winter league, winning the batting title and the Gold Glove at third base.

Perez’s rising star could make the Brewers want to hold on to him. But it also gives him trade value that could only go down in 2017. With Shaw locked in at third base and the other three positions on the infield also spoken for, Perez is only projected to be a utility guy.

The Red Sox would have to give up something (or somethings) of value to get Perez. But if they got him, they would get a younger, more controllable version of what Plouffe and Rosales could be for them—and with more upside, to boot.

Elsewhere, the Red Sox’s list of needs comes down to some low-risk starting pitching depth. That makes them a fit for…

       

4. Scott Feldman

The Red Sox traded Buchholz in part because it didn’t make sense to pay $13.5 million to a guy who wasn’t guaranteed a rotation spot.

With Buchholz gone, however, the Red Sox do have a slight depth issue in their rotation. Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price are an elite trio at the front. After them will be some combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz, each of whom has durability questions.

It wouldn’t hurt for the Red Sox to add another body to the mix. But their options are limited. They can only target guys who are in a position to accept an opportunity rather than a clearly defined role. And ideally, whoever they pick up could also be used in relief.

Hence, Scott Feldman.

The 33-year-old has been effective when healthy over the last four seasons, posting a 3.85 ERA. But he’s also no longer a lock to stay in anyone’s rotation anymore. He made just 18 starts in 2015 and found himself pitching mostly in relief in 2016.

This makes Feldman just the kind of guy the Red Sox are looking for: a veteran who could be signed for cheap as rotation insurance and could be stashed in the bullpen if no starting role materializes.

There’s one other free agent who matches this description…

    

5. Bud Norris

Bud Norris is a lot like Feldman. Once a semireliable starter, he’s fallen on hard times as he’s gotten older and is now in a position to try to latch on wherever he can.

Unlike Feldman, Norris hasn’t been effective when he’s been healthy in recent seasons. The 31-year-old has put up a 5.79 ERA since 2015, in which he’s started 30 games and appeared in relief in 43 others.

Norris still has some of the qualities that once made him a decent back-end starter, however. He’s maintaining his fastball velocity well, sitting in the 93-94 mph range. In a related story, he’s still a solid strikeout artist.

Norris is also a better bet than Feldman to stay healthy. Beyond being younger, Norris doesn’t have anything as serious as Feldman’s Tommy John surgery or microfracture knee surgery in his injury history.

These last two aren’t exactly sexy names, to be sure. But when a team’s to-do list is down to names like Feldman and Norris, that’s how you know that team is in good shape.

     

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. 

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Predicting Landing Spots for Top 10 Available MLB Offseason Targets

No player enters free agency hoping to sign in January. No team wants to let half the winter go by with significant needs unfilled.

But here we are in the new year. Free agents remain unsigned. Deals that had to be made remain undone.

And Jose Bautista wonders where it all went wrong. Or maybe he doesn’t.

If Edwin Encarnacion waited forever before landing with the Cleveland Indians on a three-year, $60 million deal, Bautista has waited forever and two weeks to find his next employer. The Minnesota Twins have waited forever to get a Brian Dozier trade done. The New York Mets still have too many outfielders, and the Atlanta Braves still haven’t improved behind the plate.

Oh, and after trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in two much-praised deals, the Chicago White Sox have gone nearly a month without more rebuilding.

There’s plenty still to do as we wait for Hall of Fame voting results and the start of spring training.

Reporting day is just six weeks away. Now these guys just need to know where to report.

We’re here to help, with Bleacher Report’s predictions for where the top remaining winter targets will land.

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Andrew Benintendi Poised to Become MLB’s Next Rookie Superstar

This winter, most Boston Red Sox-related headlines have focused on prospects on their way out of town. Most notably, the Red Sox shipped a gaggle of young talent to the Chicago White Sox in the Chris Sale trade, including five-tool Cuban Yoan Moncada.

There are still blue chips left on Boston’s table, however. One of them appears poised to win a starting job out of spring training and become MLB‘s latest rookie star.

I’m speaking, in case that headline and photo up there didn’t give the game away, about Andrew Benintendi.

In 34 games with the Red Sox last season, Benintendi flashed big-time potential, posting a .295/.359/.476 slash line with 11 doubles, a triple and two home runs.

He also provided one of the few bright spots in Boston’s division series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians when he homered in Game 1:

The seventh overall pick in 2015, the 22-year-old looks like the odds-on favorite to claim the Sox’s starting left field gig. Since he kept his rookie status intact, he’s also among the favorites for American League Rookie of the Year honors.

Are we getting ahead of ourselves based on a small sample? Possibly. The list of highly rated prospects who raked on a short audition only to struggle over a full season is long. Somewhere right now, a big league pitcher is studying film of Benintendi’s swing and figuring out how to exploit it.

Benintendi, however, has the tools and temperament for sustained success.

In August, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America called him “one of the most polished hitters of the past few drafts.” That was before Benintendi’s successful big league debut but after he’d slashed .312/.392/.540 while rocketing through the minors.

He showed excellent plate discipline in his MLB stint, swinging at just 25.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone compared to the league average of 30.3 percent. He barreled up many of the pitches he did swing at, making hard contact 32.9 percent of the time. That compares favorably to fellow Red Sox outfielder and AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts’ hard-contact rate of 33.4 percent.

Skeptics can point to Benintendi’s admittedly robust .367 batting average on balls in play, but patient hitters who make loud contact tend to have higher BABIPs. They might also note that the lefty swinger hit .179 against southpaws, though that came in a scant 33 MLB plate appearances.

Steamer projects a .282/.338/.439 slash line with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 2017. Boston would take that, but Benintendi’s ceiling is much higher.

The mental aspect of the game is harder to quantify, but it’s equally essential for success. In lieu of stats, we’ll turn to Red Sox manager John Farrell, who had this to say to reporters during the division series:

[He’s] in the Major League postseason, and much like we talked about what makes a guy wired to perform in postseason, he’s calm. Even before the postseason started, he’s been a guy that’s never really panicked, even when he’s been in a disadvantaged count at the plate. It’s almost like you watch, his athletic movements are graceful. It’s almost like a window into what his mind is going through. It’s even, it’s under control, and he plays like that.

Benintendi made the bulk of his minor league starts in center field, but that position is taken by All-Star Jackie Bradley Jr. Rather, Benintendi will continue to learn the nuances of the Green Monster and join Bradley (age 26) and Betts (age 24) to form one of the most athletic outfield troikas in the game.

They can dance, too.

The Red Sox didn’t sign or trade for a top-tier slugger to replace retired franchise icon David Ortiz. Instead, they added ancillary pieces such as Mitch Moreland, gilded the rotation with Sale and are putting their faith in this young core to carry the offense.

They’ve got Big Papi’s stamp of approval.

“Those are the players you want on your ballclub,” Ortiz said to reporters of Benintendi, Bradley, Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (the new Killer B’s?). “Young, talented, and with that mentality, that’s on another level.”

Here’s an interesting thought experiment: Imagine if Benintendi dukes it out with Moncada for ROY honors. It’s no guarantee, but it’s far from far-fetched.

If it happens, Beantown fans will doubtless feel the sting of watching the stud who changed his Sox. At the same time, they’ll be able to take solace in the one who stuck around.

   

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


New York Yankees’ Top Free Agent, Trade Targets Post New Year

The calendar may have flipped to 2017, but we’re still a couple of cold months away from baseball. That’s actually good news (hear me out) for many MLB clubs with unfinished items on their to-do lists.

Like, say, the New York Yankees, who have holes to plug in the starting rotation, the bullpen and behind the dish.

Let’s examine a few realistic trade and free-agent targets, with the key word being “realistic.” Not all of these deals will go down, but they’re tied to credible rumorsor at least informed speculationand a sense of the Yankees’ needs and resources.

They could hypothetically use Mark Trumbo’s pop, for example, but he’s not in the budgetary plans. Plus, where would they put him?

We’ll begin with a veteran backup catcher and work our way to a left-handed All-Star. Tap the (frozen) clay off your (proverbial) cleats and dig in when ready.

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MLB Free Agency: Team-by-Team Report Cards at the Start of 2017

There is roughly one month remaining before pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training, but there are still a number of impact options on the free-agent market.

Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli and Michael Saunders headline the remaining available position players; Jason Hammel and injury returnee Tyson Ross are the top starting pitchers still looking for a new home; and Neftali Feliz, Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Joe Blanton and Greg Holland represent impact relief options.

Where those remaining free agents wind up landing can still change the complexion of the offseason heading into spring training.

For now, though, we can get a pretty good gauge on how all 30 MLB teams’ offseason activity looks and whether they’ve come away a better team after a busy winter.

With that in mind, what follows is an offseason report card for each team.

The following factors went into grading each club’s offseason:

  • Talent Lost vs. Talent Gained: The easiest place to start is to simply look at the cumulative effect of the players added this offseason compared to the players lost.
  • Payroll Factors: For some teams, it’s not simply a matter of re-signing their top talent and filling roster holes with big signings. It’s often about minimizing their losses and filling holes by signing cheaper replacements.
  • Prospect Talent Added: Rebuilding is an inevitable part of the game, and for teams not in a position to contend in 2017, improving the farm system becomes the No. 1 priority. So, did a team get the most out of the assets it moved?
  • Remaining Needs: A simple question of how well each team addressed its areas of need this offseason.

 

Note: The number in parentheses following each prospect addition reflects where the player currently ranks among the organization’s top 30 prospects, according to MLB.com’s Prospect Watch.

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MLB Spring Training 2017: The Top 10 Catchers to Watch

Whether it’s at the lowest levels of amateur baseball or in MLB, few positions have a bigger impact on a team’s success—or lack thereof—than catcher. Not only are these players expected to contribute offensively, but they must masterfully handle a pitching staff and control the opposition’s running game.

Teams spend years trying to develop them and, when they develop a keeper, are hesitant to let one get away. For it can take years to find a suitable replacement. Just ask the Chicago White Sox, a team that has yet to recover from A.J. Pierzynski’s departure as a free agent following the 2012 season.

Keep in mind that this isn’t a list or ranking of the best catchers in baseball—that’ll come as we get closer to Opening Day. Rather, this is a look at catchers who, for a variety of reasons, are among the most intriguing at their position as spring training approaches.

It’s a list that includes current (and former) highly thought of prospects, as well as players who are working their way back from injuries. There’s even one catcher who, thanks to his athleticism and his team’s needs elsewhere, could transition from a full-time backstop into a utility player, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

About whom, and what, are we talking? Let’s take a look.

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Will High Demand for Controllable Pitching Lead to More Early Extensions?

Got a talented homegrown pitcher? Might want to hold on to that. Could be valuable someday.

Sound advice under any circumstances. And possibly growing sounder by the day.

Seemingly everyone wants controllable pitching this winter, and the asking prices reflect as much. You’ve probably heard the Chris Archer and Jose Quintana rumors. You certainly heard about the Chris Sale trade.

That was a big one, all right. The Chicago White Sox sent the remainder of the lefty ace’s five-year contract to the Boston Red Sox for a four-player package headlined by MLB.com’s No. 1 prospect, Yoan Moncada.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs calculated that Sale has $84.5 million in surplus value on top of his remaining contract. Craig Edwards, also of FanGraphs, calculated that the White Sox actually got “something like” $100 million in surplus value.

Sale thus went for even more than his sticker price. It wouldn’t be surprising if the same thing happened in trades of Quintana and Archer.

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the White Sox want “something similar” to what they got for Sale in a Quintana trade. That’s not too big an ask given that he’s one of baseball’s best left-handers. And while Sale’s contract controls him through 2019, Quintana’s controls him through 2020.

Meanwhile, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Tampa Bay Rays want even more for Archer than the White Sox got for Sale. Understandable, given that he’s an elite strikeout artist with a contract that controls him through 2021.

Certainly, it’s not just ability and controllability that netted a huge trade package for Sale and which could do the same for Quintana and Archer. 

Including guaranteed years and options, Sale’s, Quintana’s and Archer’s contracts owe them less than $40 million. Fair market value for elite starters (see Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, David Price and Zack Greinke) is something like $30 million per year. You could say Sale, Quintana and Archer are making chump change, but even that’s a stretch.

Of course, they can’t be blamed for agreeing to their contracts in the first place.

They signed after they had established themselves as rising stars but before they were eligible for arbitration. They cashed in on their early success rather than risk their earning power disappearing on the road to free agency. Them being pitchers, said risk was real.

The impulse on the part of young starters to cash in ASAP isn’t going away. Neither is the willingness on the part of teams to offer them the chance to do so.

For them, early extensions are a means to cost-control arbitration years and buy out free-agent years, which typically cover prime seasons in a pitcher’s late 20s, at way-below-market rates. That’s all the incentive teams need to pursue early extensions. Just within the last four years, this is how Sale, Quintana, Archer, Julio Teheran, Yordano Ventura and Corey Kluber got locked up.

The way things are now, though, teams must ask if they suddenly have an extra incentive to pursue early extensions for their homegrown arms. Are they worth it not just for controllability and cost-control purposes, but as a means to a major trade chip in the long term as well?

This depends on the huge demand for controllable starters having lasting power beyond the present, which is admittedly less than 100 percent guaranteed.

For one thing, there has indeed only been one major trade this winter. The asking prices for Quintana and Archer may be fair relative to that one trade, but for now, asking prices is all they are.

For another thing, there are special circumstances that contributed to the demand for Sale and which are now contributing to the demand for Quintana and Archer. Teams are always in search of top-of-the-rotation starters during the offseason, and it’s never been a secret that this offseason offered none of those on the free-agent market.

The next two winters look less grim on this front. Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Danny Duffy and Chris Tillman are slated for free agency after 2017. Kershaw, Price, Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel and Garrett Richards could all be free agents after 2018.

However, it’s also not 100 percent guaranteed that the huge demand for controllable starters will dry up as soon as the free-agent market is stocked with arms again.

The presence of Price, Greinke and Johnny Cueto on last winter’s market didn’t stop the Atlanta Braves from making a killing in the Shelby Miller trade. He didn’t even have a pre-arbitration extension, and yet the Braves still got a No. 1 pick (Dansby Swanson), a top pitching prospect (Aaron Blair) and a controllable outfielder (Ender Inciarte) for Miller’s final four years of club control.

Without that trade to point to, the San Diego Padres might not have been able to swap two-and-a-half years of Drew Pomeranz for elite pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza over the summer. The Miller trade also looks like a prototype for the Sale trade.

Perhaps the Miller trade shifted the market for young, controllable starters on accident. Or, perhaps something like it was inevitable. Perhaps there’s now an attitude that trading for cheap pitchers in their 20s is a better use of assets than signing expensive pitchers in their 30s.

Oh, there just might be. If we use fielding independent pitching—the most basic of the popular ERA estimators—as a measuring stick, we see that the performance gap between under-30 starters and over-30 starters has shifted in favor of the former since 2013:

 

The same effect appears when comparing xFIP and SIERA. Young pitchers have a clear edge these days.

And since it’s been going on for four years, it looks more like a trend than a fluke. This could keep the demand for controllable starters cranked to 11, which could indeed be an extra excuse for teams to want to do early extensions.

The list of pitchers who could benefit is equal parts extensive and impressive. Set to qualify for arbitration in 2018 are Noah Syndergaard, Kyle Hendricks, Aaron Sanchez, Carlos Rodon and Robbie Ray. After 2019, Michael Fulmer, Lance McCullers, Steven Matz, Jon Gray and Vince Velasquez will be ready for their shots. After 2020, it will be Julio Urias, Alex Reyes, Blake Snell and Jameson Taillon.

That’s a lot of candidates for pre-arbitration extensions. If for no other reasons than controllability and cost control, their teams should want to get them done.

The possibility of these contracts one day being worth a fortune on the trade market could now be the proverbial cherry on top.

      

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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