Archive for January, 2017

Power Ranking MLB’s Best Pitching Staffs for 2017 Ahead of Spring Training

Offense puts fans in the seats, but pitching wins championships.

As we’ve seen in recent years, that statement is all too true.

And it’s not specific to starting pitching, either, as the San Francisco Giants can attest.

The Cleveland Indians rode ace Corey Kluber and the bullpen trio of Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen to the World Series last year, while the Chicago Cubs trio of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was backed by deadline-addition Aroldis Chapman on their way to the title.

So who has the best stable of arms looking ahead to the 2017 season?

We’ve set out to answer just that, ranking all 30 teams’ pitching staffs.

A good starting rotation carried a bit more weight than a good bullpen, but you won’t see any team in the top 10 with a weakness in either area.

Begin Slideshow


World Baseball Classic 2017: Projecting Tournament Favorites, Dark Horses

March is an important month for baseball fans. Not only does it signal the beginning of the exhibition season—and draw us ever closer to Opening Day—but every four years, it provides us the opportunity to see the best players in the world compete in a 16-team tournament, the World Baseball Classic.

While some fans bemoan the fact that the tournament cuts into spring training, there’s no denying that the action on the field is both exciting and entertaining. That’s especially true as teams advance into the later rounds, consummating with the Championship Round at Dodger Stadium, which begins on March 20.

Final rosters aren’t due for another few weeks, so much can change between now and then. But based on the players we know are participating, the competition teams will be facing in their respective pools in the first round and how they’ve fared in the past, we can begin to affix labels to some of these clubs.

What follows is a look at four favorites—and four dark horses—in the fourth installment of the WBC.

Begin Slideshow


Cubs in Prime Position to Use Checkbook to Magnify Future Dominance

The rich get richer. The good get better. It doesn’t always work that way, but sometimes it does.

Just ask the Chicago Cubs.

One year after winning their first World Series since the debut of the Model T Ford, the Cubs are positioned for another deep postseason run.

Their potent lineup remains intact. They expect a full, healthy season from Kyle Schwarber. They plugged the hole in the back of their bullpen by acquiring closer Wade Davis and signing veteran setup man Koji Uehara.

FanGraphs projects a 95-67 record for Chicago in 2017, but that feels more like the Cubs’ floor than their ceiling.

That’s this year. But here’s a blood-curdling thought for MLB‘s other 29 franchises: The Cubs are positioned to get even better in the near future.

I’m not just talking about the growth of the club’s young core, though that’s part of it. Kris Bryant (age 25), Javier Baez (age 24), Schwarber (age 23) and Addison Russell (age 22) are all climbing toward their primes. Their output up to now may have been merely the trailer for an epic blockbuster, something FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron deftly illustrated:

It’s no secret that the Cubs have some of the best young hitters in baseball, but it is exceptionally rare for teams with this many young hitters to win it all. The last World Series winner with to give at least 2,400 plate appearances to players in the 25 and under category was the 1971 Pirates; unsurprisingly, the Pirates won 57% of their games in the 1970s, finishing first or second in their division in seven of the next eight years.

In addition to that, the Cubs are about to have money to burn. While this year’s free-agent class was weak, the next two will be strong enough for Chicago to flex its checkbook and add even more star wattage.

First, let’s don our old-timey green eyeshades and crunch some numbers. Between Davis, Uehara, center fielder Jon Jay, catcher Miguel Montero, right-hander John Lackey and lefty reliever Brian Duensing, the Cubs will shed more than $56 million next winter.

Those players will create holes if they’re not re-signed, obviously, though the Cubs can fill some with cost-controlled in-house options. Willson Contreras is already at the top of the Cubs’ catching depth chart, for example, and is years away from salary arbitration.

Chicago may opt to extend Davis if he has a strong season on the North Side. If the Cubs choose, however, they can pour their remaining resources into adding top-shelf free agents, particularly in the starting rotation.

One of the biggest studs in next winter’s class could be Chicago right-hander Jake Arrieta. The Cubs avoided arbitration with the 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner Friday, signing him for one year and $15.64 million.

“There is certainly a chance he could be here beyond next year, but we don’t have any ongoing talks or anything specific scheduled,” Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told reporters. “I’m sure it will come up at some point.”

Arrieta is a Scott Boras client, which means you should be conjuring cartoonish cash-register sound effects.

He’s also coming off an uneven year in which his ERA rose from 1.77 in 2015 to 3.10, his innings dropped from 229 to 197.1 and his strikeouts fell from 236 to 190.

He’s still one of the NL’s top arms, though, and is in the midst of his prime at age 30. With all that payroll freed up, the Cubs can pay him and still have cash left over.

They could use it to sign another ace-level starter next offseason from a group that will be headlined by Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto, assuming Cueto opts out of his current contract with the San Francisco Giants.

Imagine a rotation headlined by Arrieta, Cueto, Jon Lester and control artist Kyle Hendricks, backed by the Cubs offense.

Speaking of offense, here’s another route Chicago could take: Save its ducats and sink them into the mythical 2018-19 free-agent class, which is set to feature Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, among others.

Yes, the Cubs are loaded in the infield and outfield. But finding a place to put Harper or Machado is the definition of a good problem to have.

Picture a Bryant/Anthony Rizzo/Machado heart of the order, keeping in mind that Machado is 24 years old and ranked seventh in baseball with a 6.5 WAR last season by FanGraphs’ measure. Go ahead, I’ll wait.

OK, have you caught your breath? Here’s where we add a few wet-blanket caveats. While it’s undeniably true the Cubs will have money to spend after this season even if they don’t raise payroll, it’s also true their young stars will get increasingly expensive as they move toward free agency.

The Cubs’ service-time shenanigans with Bryant bought them a little wiggle room, but it only delayed the inevitable. His cost will skyrocket when he reaches arbitration. When he hits free agency? Forget about it.

The new collective bargaining agreement raises the luxury tax threshold over the next several years, from $195 million in 2017 all the way up to $210 million in 2021. It also increases the penalties for clubs that go over, however, meaning budget-busting megadeals will sting extra hard. (The Cubs were one of six teams to go over the luxury tax this season.)

Epstein deserves credit for building this team methodically, stockpiling and developing prospects rather than throwing money at the problem. He’s also pulled the trigger on some key free agents, including Lester and Ben Zobrist, who were a big part of the Cubs’ title run.

Soon, he’ll have more cash to play with and plenty of players worth giving it to. The rich could get richer. The good could get better.

Sometimes, that’s the way it goes.

           

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Jay Bruce Trade Rumors: Latest News and Speculation on Mets RF

The New York Mets have a logjam in the outfield and could try to solve it by dealing away Jay Bruce.

Continue for updates.


Phillies Interested in Bruce

Sunday, Jan. 15

According to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the Philadelphia Phillies have had a “longstanding interest” in Bruce, although the team might not want to match the reported price of two prospects.

The 29-year-old is under contract for $13 million through the 2017 season.

Bruce was acquired by the Mets shortly before the 2016 trade deadline after spending nine years with the Cincinnati Reds. Although he had a strong start to the year in Cincinnati with 25 home runs and 80 RBI in 97 games, he struggled immensely in New York.

Over the final two months of the season, he hit just eight home runs with 19 RBI and a .219 batting average in 50 games. His OPS was just .685 with the Mets, down from .875 in Cincinnati.

He looked nothing like the player who had made three All-Star appearances with 233 home runs with the Reds.

Despite the poor performance, New York picked up his reasonable team option at the end of the season to keep him on the roster. However, the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes led to an overload of corner outfielders when paired with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto.

Although the Mets have been unable to find a trade partner throughout the offseason, general manager Sandy Alderson blamed outside circumstances.

“The situation right now has been created by the number of free agents that exist,” he said, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Until fellow sluggers like Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista are off the board, it will be hard to create a legitimate market for Bruce.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Ian Kinsler Trade Rumors: Latest News and Speculation on Tigers 2B

In an effort to lower their payroll heading into 2017, the Detroit Tigers are reportedly willing to trade second baseman Ian Kinsler.

Continue for updates.


Kinsler Could Be on the Move, LA a Possibility

Sunday, Jan. 15 

“The Tigers are a willing trade partner because they’re trying to get rid of payroll. Kinsler is still a top player, and he only has two years remaining on his deal,” a major league executive told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were mentioned as a potential suitor if they are unable to land Minnesota Twins star Brian Dozier.

Kinsler, 34, hit .288/.348/.484 with 28 home runs and 83 RBI last season. It was his first 20-homer year since 2011, and he posted 5.8 wins above replacement, the second-best number of his career, per FanGraphs. He also won his first Gold Glove at second base.

Kinsler credited his experience for his improvements as a fielder, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press

Obviously being a veteran and playing a lot of years, a lot of repetition, a lot of practice, obviously being more and more comfortable with the game, that all plays into it. It’s really about understanding yourself and what plays you expect yourself to make and how to get certain balls and how to make it easier on yourself and all of that stuff starts to happen quicker and quicker the older you get. That’s my experience and I don’t really plan on slowing down.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the Dodgers and Tigers initially discussed a Kinsler move in November. Kinsler has a partial no-trade clause, which includes Los Angeles, so he would have to approve any trade. His agent, Jay Franklin, told Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports that Kinsler would not approve a trade to any team on his no-trade list without an extension. 

“His ultimate goal is no different than when he went from the Rangers to the Tigers. He wants to win. If anyone knows Ian Kinsler, he has always been that type of guy,” Franklin said.

Per Spotrac, Kinsler is scheduled to make $11 million in 2017, and the Tigers hold a club option of $10 million for 2018—a paltry sum for someone with his history of production. It’s possible Kinsler doubles his salary on a per-year basis if he signs an extension, though it’s unlikely any team will want to carry a deal as he heads into his late 30s.

The best-case scenario for Kinsler might be a trade with a team that’s willing to tack on a couple of years to his deal now before the age curve kicks in. 

    

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Wil Myers’ 6-Year Extension Cements Franchise Cornerstone for Padres’ New Era

When the San Diego Padres acquired Wil Myers in December 2014, he was a talented, injury-prone enigma. Two years and change later, he has a chance to be a franchise cornerstone.

On Friday, Myers and the Padres agreed to a six-year extension worth “more than $80 million,” per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal

The deal buys out three of Myers’ arbitration years and three years of potential free agency and keeps him in San Diego through his 31st birthday. Essentially, the Friars just went all-in on Myers’ prime.

If you’re in a pessimistic mood, Myers has flaws. We’ll highlight them shortly. The Padres, however, haven’t had a winning season since 2010, haven’t tasted the postseason since 2006 and have defined dysfunction under general manager A.J. Preller. 

Let’s start with the positive.

Myers enjoyed his best big league season in 2016, hitting 28 home runs with 28 stolen bases and 94 RBI. He made his first National League All-Star team. He graded out as an excellent defensive first baseman who also has experience at all three outfield spots, per FanGraphs.

It was, by almost any measure, the year Myers boosters had been waiting for since 2013. That’s when Myers won American League Rookie of the Year honors with the Tampa Bay Rays after posting a .911 OPS in the minors and appeared ticketed for stardom.

Now, he belongs to the Pads for the foreseeable future. And, more good news, they appear to have gotten him for below market rate. The ZiPS projection system pegged his value considerably higher than the amount Rosenthal reported, as ESPN.com’s Dan Szymborski noted:

So there’s the glass-half-full take: The Padres inked a special player who appears to be coming into his own for a relative bargain. He can anchor a young core that figures to include top outfield prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe and help usher San Diego back to contention after years in the woods.

After jettisoning veterans such as Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton Jr. and James Shields, the Padres can turn to Myers for leadership, as well.

CBS Sports’ Dayn Perry called it a “sensible” move, which counts as high praise given San Diego’s recent track record. 

Alright, now for the caveats. 

Last season was the first time in his MLB career Myers played more than 100 games. He’s made multiple trips to the disabled list in his brief big league tenure, centered around lingering left wrist issues. In his first season with San Diego, the wonky wrist landed him on the 60-day DL.

Myers played 157 games last season, so you could argue he put much of that behind him. His performance, however, tailed off significantly in the second half:

“I know I’ve been horrendous in the second half,” Myers said in September, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “This is just a learning tool. I’ve not been this bad for this long of time in any level of baseball. It’s just the way it goes sometimes.”

Myers insisted he wasn’t injured. Instead, he suggested, it was merely him getting used to the rigors of a full MLB campaign.

“Being my first full season here in the big leagues and my first full season in three years, you find out what the grind is like,” he said, per Lin.

That’s something to keep an eye on in 2017. If Myers can replicate his 2016 production, though, he’ll be worth every penny of his reported deal.

The Padres are more significant now. With the Chargers moving to Los Angeles, the Pads become San Diego’s only professional sports franchise.

With monopolistic power comes great responsibility. Perhaps Myers can shoulder the load. 

We’re talking about a guy who knocked on the door of a 30/30 season. If his injury issues are in the past and last year’s second-half slide was an issue of conditioning, it’s easy to imagine him getting MVP votes.

Nothing is guaranteed. Pads fans have every right to be skeptical based on recent history. From most angles, though, this looks like a savvy move.

Smile, Friars faithful—you’ve earned that much.

   

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Tyson Ross to Rangers: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Looking to get a fresh start on his career, starting pitcher Tyson Ross has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Texas Rangers

MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reported the two sides agreed to a one-year deal. According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, Ross’ contract pays out $6 million guaranteed. However, Ross can earn more through bonuses. 

Ross spent the previous four seasons with the San Diego Padres before the team decided to non-tender him in December, making him a free agent for the first time in his career.  

Discussing the decision not to give Ross a contract for 2017, Padres general manager A.J. Preller only heaped praise on the right-hander.

“We’ve seen him the last few years; he’s been one of the better pitchers in the league,” said Preller, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “He’s got a lot of talent. He’s a guy that works very hard. He’s a leader by example.”

Coming into 2016, there was no chance the Padres would give Ross a chance to walk away unless it was because they traded him. He was an excellent starting pitcher from 2013 to 2015, taking full advantage of Petco Park to become the ace in San Diego. 

Things unraveled for Ross in 2016. The former All-Star only made one start, allowing eight runs (seven earned) in 5.1 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, due to shoulder problems that never went away and led to him having surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome in October. 

Padres manager Andy Green told reporters that after Ross has the procedure, the recovery time is typically between four and six months, which puts his status for Opening Day in 2017 up in the air. 

However, Texas is not afraid to bet on Ross’ return. He turns 30 on April 22 and is only one year removed from posting a 3.26 ERA in 196 innings, so taking a chance on a short-term deal without a lot of guaranteed money makes this worth the risk. 

This has been a slow offseason for the defending American League West champions, other than re-signing Carlos Gomez. They have seen the Houston Astros go on a spending spree to add Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick and trade for Brian McCann. 

At this point, Ross doesn’t put the Rangers back in the driver’s seat for the division title. He does help with their lack of depth in the starting rotation behind Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, with the potential for more if he returns to full health and his 2014-15 form comes with it. 

The Rangers’ lack of activity this offseason has been surprising since ownership hasn’t been shy about spending. Their payroll has increased each of the previous six seasons, going from $64 million in 2010 to $158.9 million in 2016, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts

That spending has gotten the Rangers in trouble lately, with players like Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus struggling, and they have a number of key free agents to worry about after 2017, including Darvish. 

Under that lens, the Rangers’ investment in Ross makes perfect sense. He’s in a situation that will allow him to compete for a playoff spot and rebuild his value in hopes of striking a long-term deal next winter. 

The Rangers get another starting pitcher they can add to their mix while retaining the option to use him in relief if his arm doesn’t hold up under the rigors of starting.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Ranking MLB’s Top 25 Overall Future Trade Assets

Let’s pretend for a second that every player in Major League Baseball was placed on the trade block.

Ignoring things like team need and franchise direction, who would be the most valuable trade chips in this hypothetical situation?

That’s what we’ve set out to determine in the following article.

Ahead, you’ll find the top 25 future trade assets based on that hypothetical situation, but before we dive into that list, a few ground rules:

  • No Prospects: Any player who still has rookie eligibility remaining was not considered for this list, as the focus was on current MLB talent. That meant no Dansby Swanson or Andrew Benintendi either, since their rookie standings are still intact.
  • Three Years of Control or More: To further trim the field and because remaining team control is such a huge factor in determining trade value, a player needed to have at least three remaining years of control to be considered for this list. That excluded the vaunted 2018-19 free-agent class, headlined by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
  • Team Control Wasn’t Everything: While one of the biggest factors in putting together this list was undoubtedly team control, it wasn’t everything. Are five years of Chris Archer worth more than three years of Madison Bumgarner? These were the kinds of questions that had to be answered.
  • Position Players vs. Pitchers: The following list contains 16 position players and nine pitchers. Why the lopsided numbers? Because position players are more valuable given their day in and day out contributions, and they’re also safer long-term investments.
  • Big Contracts Were a Detriment: Players such as Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Freddie Freeman, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, David Price, Kyle Seager, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Votto don’t necessarily have bad contracts, but their steep price tags undoubtedly cut into their values.

Hopefully, that paints a clear picture of what went into the following rankings. Now let’s kick things off with some honorable mentions.

Begin Slideshow


MLB Spring Training 2017: The Top 10 Shortstops to Watch

Few positions in baseball have seen as big an influx of high-upside young talent in recent years as shortstop. From Carlos Correa to Francisco Lindor to Corey Seager, the position is well stocked with young stars who are poised to dominate the game for years to come.

Believe it or not, the pipeline is far from dry, as some young shortstops are poised to make their impact felt during the 2017 season. Of course, the veterans who stand in their way will have something to say about that, as they’re not going to give up their everyday jobs willingly.

Keep in mind that this isn’t a list or ranking of the best shortstops in baseball—that’ll come as we get closer to Opening Day. Rather, this is a look at those who, for a variety of reasons, carry some of the most compelling storylines into spring training.

The list that follows includes players working their way back from injuries and the youngsters mentioned above, both those on the way and those looking to take the next step in their development, as well as former stars hoping to hang around for another season.

                   

Previous entries in our “Spring Training 10 to Watch” series: Catchers, First Basemen, Second Basemen

Begin Slideshow


Is MLB Headed for Dearth of Intense Division Races Next Season?

There are things the 2017 MLB season can be counted on to deliver. Mike Trout will make highlights. Giancarlo Stanton’s bat will make loud noises. Bartolo Colon will make assorted GIFs.

But if you’re counting on some intense division races, we need to talk.

It’s a little early to be looking that far ahead, but not too early. With spring training now just a month away, we basically know what teams look like on paper. And that’s what matters for projections.

And right now, they paint a picture of a lopsided power structure. 

According to FanGraphs, there’s a clear favorite in all six divisions. And by “clear favorite,” I mean a team projected to win the title by six or more games. Like so:

This would be unusual. Last season, two of the six divisions were decided by five games or less. There were two such division races in 2015, 2014 and 2013 as well. In 2012, four divisions were decided by five games or less. And so on.

Even in the weird world of projections, never mind just unusual, this is unheard of. FanGraphsJeff Sullivan traced the history of division projections back to 2006 and found that this is the first time that not even one race has been projected to be close.

This isn’t so much a matter of there being too many bad teams in the league. There certainly are objectively terrible teams out there, but the early division favorites account for just six of 16 teams projected to finish over .500. That’s a solid amount of contenders.

Rather, this is a case of these six teams looking really good, while those other teams only look regular good. And that’s not just apparent through the eyes of computer projections.

Start in the AL East. The Boston Red Sox may have lost David Ortiz, but that’s just one missing piece from last season’s 93-win roster. More to the point, it’s only one missing piece from an MLB-best offense that still has MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and a handful of other stars.

Plus, the additions of Chris Sale, Tyler Thornburg and Mitch Moreland could make up in run prevention what the Red Sox lost in run production when Big Papi retired. Sounds like a potential superteam

In the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians handily won the division last year with 94 wins before going on to win the American League pennant. Now they have Edwin Encarnacion and should also have healthy versions of Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.

After winning only 84 games and finishing third in the AL West last year, the Houston Astros have padded their lineup with Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann. Throw in an elite bullpen and a rotation in which 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is just one of several rebound candidates, and all the pieces for a juggernaut are there.

In the NL East, the Washington Nationals entered the winter off a largely trouble-free year highlighted by 95 wins and an easy division win. All they needed was a center fielder. By trading for Adam Eaton, they filled that need with one of the most underrated stars in the league.

In the NL Central, there are the Chicago Cubs. They won 103 games and the World Series last year. And while some pieces (namely Dexter Fowler, Aroldis Chapman and Jason Hammel) are gone now, on the whole, the band hasn’t been broken up.

Which brings us to the Los Angeles Dodgers and their place in the NL West. It could be argued that they haven’t done enough by only bringing back Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen and Rich Hill and adding nothing new to a team that won only 91 games in 2016.

However, that relatively unimpressive figure was less a talent problem and more of a health problem. Per Baseball Heat Maps, the Dodgers racked up 2,418 disabled list days last year. If their notion is that a similar roster will produce more wins as long as the injury bug stays away, well, they’re not necessarily wrong.

So, there. Just in case anyone needed to hear it from an actual human: The teams that are supposed to be great actually look great.

Underneath them, there’s a shortage of candidates that could join the club. The San Francisco Giants are the only other team projected to win more than 85 games. And with Mark Melancon in to stabilize their bullpen, they have a real shot at improving on last year’s 87 wins. The projections may be underrating them.

Otherwise, questions abound.

The AL East is the Red Sox and then a bunch of teams stuck in a weird purgatorial realm. The AL Central is the Indians and then everyone else. The Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners are relevant in the AL West but lack Houston’s upside. The New York Mets will push the Nationals in the NL East but face health and defense pitfalls. In the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates have the distinction of simply not being on the Cubs’ level.

Certainly, the projections reflect all of this. But now also seems like a good time to acknowledge the obvious caveat with projections.

These things were not written down by Nostradamus several hundred years ago. They’re calculated by computers based on the likely production of each team’s players. Them being human beings and all, they’re prone to being swayed by other forces.

Like, for example, the World Series hangover effect.

Yeah, yeah. It’s a cliche. But one that Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost came face-to-face with last season.

“It’s a little bit different,” the skipper said in May, via Fox Sports. “They still have that desire, because they want to do it again. But it’s more work this year.”

It’s not just you, Ned. Ever since 2006—the year MLB got serious about performance-enhancing drugs—only one of 11 World Series winners has matched or beat its regular-season winning percentage the following year. Only four World Series losers stayed the same or got better the following year.

Down has generally been the way to go for each league’s reigning champs. That could spell trouble for the Cubs and Indians.

Meanwhile, the other favorites have more specific pitfalls.

The Dodgers have so far done nothing to solve their crippling weakness against left-handed pitching. The Nationals’ overall strength could be undermined by a bullpen that’s short on shutdown arms. The Astros will be in trouble if their starting pitchers don’t rebound. And as good as the Red Sox lineup could be, WEEI’s John Tomase isn’t wrong in writing it contains “four giant mysteries.”

The disconnect between what’s on paper and what could happen on the field raises the question of the projections’ track record with alleged superteams. Sullivan looked into that too in a piece for ESPN.com. And though he didn’t find a pattern of the projections being way off, he did find: “Overall, there has been a slight amount of underperformance among the superteams.”

The superteams failing to live up to their projections in 2017 is all it would take to open the door for upsets. And while there are good reasons why they don’t project as well now, the various teams referenced above could very well see an opportunity.

The projections make it look like six teams will be holding all the cards in 2017. If that ends up being played out in reality, 2017 will be very much out of the ordinary. And not in a good way.

Or, it’ll be just another baseball season. A bunch of weird stuff will happen, and at the end, even the experts will be muttering to themselves, “Hell, I just can’t predict this game.”

                         

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

Follow zachrymer on Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Copyright © 1996-2010 Kuzul. All rights reserved.
iDream theme by Templates Next | Powered by WordPress