Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball.
His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.
Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:
Strikeout Rate
- 2007: 6.06 K/9
- 2008: 6.20 K/9
- 2009: 8.19 K/9
- 2010: 8.32 K/9
Walk Rate
- 2007: 3.12 BB/9
- 2008: 2.32 BB/9
- 2009: 2.55 BB/9
- 2010: 2.19 BB/9
In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball); in fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.
Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one.
Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.
| IP | W | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
| 2010 stats | 230.1 | 20 | 8.32 | 2.19 | 2.42 | 1.05 |
| 3-year average | 198.2 | 17 | 7.80 | 2.36 | 2.68 | 1.14 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 220 | 18 | 8.40 | 2.30 | 2.70 | 1.17 |
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Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
- No. 22: Chase Utley
- No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
- No. 24: Jose Reyes
- No. 25: Josh Hamilton
- No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com