When discussing the Washington Nationals‘ 2010 offseason, many people have focused on what the Nats did not accomplish rather than what they did. The Nationals were able to improve greatly on their defensive deficiencies while not sacrificing too much offensively.
The Nationals were also able to strengthen an already strong bullpen by acquiring Todd Coffey, Henry Rodriguez and Cla Meredith.
Last but not least, the Nationals were able to add depth to their rotation by adding Tom Gorzelanny via trade and Chad Gaudin via free agency, not to mention re-signing workhorse Livan Hernandez.
But with all that, people were still not satisfied because of the team’s inability to acquire a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.
No, without a true No. 1 starting pitcher, the Nationals will not contend for a playoff spot, but would they have if they had landed a Zack Greinke or Matt Garza?
Probably not.
So really, it could be seen as a plus that the Nats didn’t get one of those arms this offseason.
Behind Cliff Lee, the pitching available in free agency was thinner than Ross Detwiler. Theoretically, with a high demand (the demand for pitching is always high) and lower-than-usual supply, the price for pitching was unusually high this past offseason.
Sometimes it’s better to bide your time and wait for a better deal to come along; this offseason was an example of just that.
Now, being a Nationals fan myself, I understand those who want to win now after five seasons that were all but over before Memorial Day. It’s hard to accept gradual progress.
But take a look at last year’s World Series teams, both of which were considered surprises and failed to make the playoffs the previous season:
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
75-87 |
79-83 |
87-75 |
90-72 |
|
71-91 |
72-90 |
88-74 |
92-70 |
Those teams built themselves up gradually, from a losing record to a pennant in three years.
In 2011, the Nationals should be at a similar level as the 2007 Giants and Rangers with wins in the low-to-mid-70’s. If they continue on that same timeline, they should be ready to contend by 2013 or 2014, when Strasburg will be 100 percent recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Bryce Harper will have a year of major league experience under his belt.
That means the Nationals have two or three offseasons to add non-homegrown talent. Homegrown talent is cheap, but it takes a long time to develop, and the cornerstones of the Nationals’ organization are undeveloped homegrown talent.
Knowing that, why would you want the Nationals to spend money now when the team won’t be ready to contend until then?
In other words, why waste money paying players in 2011 and 2012, when the earliest the Nats will compete is 2013?
Which brings up another point: there is no need to rush Harper through the minors or Strasburg through rehab, especially in 2011.
You can bet that if Harper hits around .300 and slaps around four home runs in Spring Training, the fans will be clamoring for the teenage phenom to be on the Opening Day roster. Even if he proves to be the best player on the team, Harper still needs time in the minors. He needs time in a situation where instruction and development—not winning—are the focus, if he is to reach his full potential.
A year in the minors could be the difference between Harper being an All-Star, and Harper being an all-time great.
In late August, when reports of Strasburg’s full recovery start to come out, fans will be clamoring for his return to the mound, but the wise move would be to keep him off major league mounds for the entirety of 2011. Why put unneeded stress on Strasburg’s golden arm instead of letting him work his way back in the low-pressure situations of the minor leagues?
A year away from the majors could be the difference between Strasburg being Mark Pryor or Strasburg being an even better Josh Johnson.
As for the Nationals team as a whole, the same can be said.
Patience will prove to be a virtue. If the Nationals are around .500 come August, fans may be clamoring for the front office to make a bold move in order to make a playoff push. Such a move would be unwise, even if it is the popular move. But in 2013 when the Nationals are playing meaningful baseball in September, it will all be worth it.
Patience.
It’s the difference between the Nationals being the fourth-place New York Mets, and the Nationals being the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com