The San Diego Padres will have to find a way to overcome a terrible finish to the 2010 season. The Padres were atop the National League at 76-49 on Aug. 25, but fell apart down the stretch, going just 14-23 to finish the year.
San Diego ended up finishing second in the division to the San Francisco Giants, who eventually won the World Series.
San Diego will have to compete this year without All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who now plays for the Red Sox. Still, with a solid pitching staff and terrific defense, San Diego is expected to be a threat to win the West again in 2011.
Here is a look at the Padres’ Opening Day starting lineup and starting rotation, plus our MLB predictions on where they will end the season in the NL West.
Starting Lineup
It’s not easy trying to figure out where the Padres are going to get their run production from without Gonzalez in the middle of the order. San Diego went out and added first baseman Brad Hawpe, center fielder Cameron Maybin, second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop Jason Bartlett, but not one of these guys had a good season last year.
Hawpe wasn’t near the hitter he was in Colorado after leaving the Rockies, and we don’t expect his numbers to improve playing in San Diego. On the other hand, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Hudson and Bartlett turn things around, but neither brings a lot of power.
Maybin could be the one who provides some of that power. He will only be 24 this season, and while he hasn’t lived up to his potential, a change of location could be all this kid needs to turn things around.
The Padres are also hoping left fielder Ryan Ludwick can rebound from last year. San Diego traded for Ludwick last season, but he hit only .211 with six home runs and 26 RBI in 59 games with the Padres, numbers he has to improve on if they are going to make another run in the West.
One other player that could turn things around is right fielder Will Venable, who was second on the team with 13 home runs despite playing most of the year with a bad back. The rest of the lineup doesn’t figure to provide a whole lot. Catcher Nick Hundley hit just .249, and third baseman Chase Headley has yet to deliver in two full seasons as a starter.
Starting Rotation
It seems like San Diego always has one of the better starting rotations in the game, and we wouldn’t be surprised if that was the case once again this season.
San Diego’s pitching staff features two outstanding pitchers in Mat Latos and Clayton Richard. Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, while Richard went 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA. Both were much better than their records indicate, but unless the offense finds a way to deliver, it’s hard to picture their win totals increasing much this season.
San Diego likes what it got out of Tim Stauffer last season. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in seven starts and 25 relief appearances, which should be enough to make him a full-time starter this season.
The Padres went out and added Dustin Moseley and Aaron Harang this offseason to shore up the starting rotation. Harang appears to be a big risk, considering he hasn’t topped six wins his last three seasons. Moseley, on the other hand, could surprise, as he should benefit from pitching at PETCO Park compared to pitching for the Yankees in the loaded AL East.
San Diego also has Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke, who could start as well.
2011 Projections: Third Place NL West
The Padres were a huge surprise last year, considering they went just 75-87 the year before. The starting rotation is solid at the top, but there are concerns at the other three spots, plus the offense could be even worse than it was last season. While the Padres could surprise again, we believe they will fall back in the NL West this year.
The Padres’ MLB odds to win the NL West this season are currently listed at +1200.
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