I’m not sure why many people get so worked up about losing free agent bullpen arms—even ones as good as Jonathan Papelbon.
More so than any other position, filling out the bullpen is a total crapshoot every year anyway.
Take a deep breath and look at recent history.
Exhibit A:
One team that built up a solid bullpen for very little money was the San Francisco Giants.
Perhaps frustrating to Boston fans and management, three of their stellar performers were once on the Red Sox roster. Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez were former Boston relievers allowed to walk when their contracts were up. Guillermo Mota was also a member of the Red Sox organization for a brief period, coming to Boston as the third Marlin in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade. He was flipped to Cleveland two months later as part of the trade that brought in Coco Crisp and others for Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach.
The Giants viewed Lopez as their most important free agent to re-sign this offseason. Just to show what an inexact science bullpen talent evaluation really is, consider this sequence. After blowing up to a 9.26 ERA in 14 appearances for the Red Sox in 2009 (for which he earned $1.35 million), Lopez signed in Pittsburgh for $775,000 and sported an excellent ERA of 2.79 in 50 appearances for the lowly Pirates. The Giants traded for him at the deadline and he rewarded San Francisco with a stellar 1.42 ERA in 27 outings. The Giants then signed him to a one-year contract for 2011 ($2.38 million, 2.72 ERA, 70 appearances) and just last week extended him with a two-year deal worth $8.5 million.
The Red Sox acquired Ramirez from Kansas City after the 2008 season in the outbound Coco Crisp deal. Ramirez signed a $441,000 contract for 2009, and won seven games in 70 appearances with a 2.84 ERA. The following year he received a bump to $1.15M, saw his ERA rise to 4.46 and was gone at the trading deadline to the Giants.
San Francisco gave up an eighth-round draft pick, the forgettable Daniel Turpen, gone from the Red Sox to the Rockies organization nine months later.
The change of scenery worked wonders for Ramirez, who was lights out for the Giants for the rest of 2010 with a miniscule ERA of 0.67. He continued to perform well in San Francisco last year, posting a 2.62 ERA in 66 games.
Mota, whom some considered the 2011 MVP of the San Francisco bullpen, is a veteran who came up with the Expos in 1999. The Giants are his eighth team, and 2011 was one of his most productive years—even though he was only given a minor league deal with a spring training invitation.
He ended up being the San Francisco equivalent of Alfredo Aceves for the Red Sox, eating innings as both short and long man as well as starting a game.
Exhibit B:
At the end of the 2010 season, the Tampa Bay Rays lost virtually every arm they had in what was a very strong bullpen. Dan Wheeler signed with the Red Sox, and Chad Qualls, Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, and Joaquin Benoit all left as free agents. (Most signed one-year deals elsewhere, and may be available again this year.)
Coming into 2011, Tampa’s bullpen appeared to be a much bigger problem than Boston’s. But look what happened!
Through the summer, the Rays mixed and matched, and through a combination of rookies (Brandon Gomes and Jake McGee) and Maddon’s various reclamation projects, they ended up with a relief staff that was one of the best in the majors.
Even their very reliable closer, Kyle Farnsworth, was a scrap-heap rescue.
Was it a smooth transition? Certainly not. As Alex Heeren wrote for SB Nation Tampa Bay, by the end of July the Rays had used 13 relief pitchers; seven were called up from Durham in July alone.
But, as Jeff Briscoe reported for Yahoo! Sports, one of the reasons Joe Maddon was named AL Manager of the Year this past week was because of the job he did restructuring that bullpen.
And Madden (and the Rays ownership) did not spend big money to do it.
Conclusion:
These two very successful bullpens consisted of a combination of non-performers who flourished in new environments, as well as youngsters who were developed by their teams internally.
The bottom line is that decent relievers seem to materialize out of nowhere every year. The conundrum is that some of the good relievers in one year were total disasters just the year before. They seem to run out of gas in one park, division or league, and are rejuvenated by a change of scenery.
Conversely, some of the best firemen in 2011 will turn out to be expensive duds in 2012.
The argument here is that there is no true recipe for success. That’s why signing several low-risk, inexpensive free agents (and throwing in a few prospects from the farm) seems preferable to investing a lot of money (and therefore credibility) into just a couple of guys.
So relax, Red Sox Nation—there will be plenty of bullpen arms to go around. Better to focus your energy (and money) on starting pitching.
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