This is 100 percent “what if” thinking and theoretical, but it’s fun nonetheless.
The Orioles have been basement dwellers for, well, I’ve lost count on the number years. I just know the last time I saw them in the playoffs I was a sophomore in college with a full head of hair. Since then the O’s have played at a level somewhere in-between terrible and below average. Long gone are the good ol’ days when it was Baltimore and Toronto battling tooth and nail. And how quickly did the country forget about the heated rivalry and brawls with the Yankees back in the ’80s and ’90s.
To be bad this long takes some luck—part of that luck is being in the AL East with the three-headed monster: New York, Boston and, its newest addition, Tampa Bay.
Let’s pretend for a moment that the Orioles were in National League East. How would they have fared over the past decade? My theory: The Orioles would have made the playoffs at least once or twice since 2000.
How the Math Works
1. The numbers say the AL is stronger. Since interleague play began in 1997, the American League has won 1,939 interleague games while the national League has won 1,773. Therefore, the American League is about 10 percent better.
Let’s add 10 percent improvement to their typical 68-win season: that gives the O’s 74 wins and 88 losses.
2. A three-headed monster vs. a one-headed monster. The Orioles have to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays more than any other team in Major League Baseball. In the NL East, it’s usually only one team per season playing up to that level—typically the Phillies, Mets or Braves. Let’s subtract 10 losses due to an easier division schedule.
Now the O’s are at 84 wins and 78 losses.
3. The DH effect. The Orioles have a reputation for picking up average designated hitters, or DHs who are past their prime. On the flip side, shaky Oriole pitching could definitely benefit from facing one less talented hitter per lineup.
With the Orioles still spending about the same amount on payroll, not having to include a DH on the roster frees up about $8 million that could go toward a decent pitcher or position player. Plus the pitching staff would give up a few less big hits. Let’s give the O’s four more wins.
The O’s are creeping to the top with 88 wins, 74 losses.
4. Payroll competition. The O’s have been willing to spend near or into the upper third of MLB teams. In the NL East, this would put the O’s on par with the Mets and Phillies. And with a more competitive season, perhaps ownership would be willing to spend a little more to get the job done. I’m giving the O’s three more wins due to the increased market value of their payroll.
The O’s now have 91 wins, 71 losses.
That’s good enough to make the playoffs, at least as a wild card.
Looking back over the Orioles’ rosters and records from the past decade, the best performing clubs were in 2004 (third place in the AL East with 78 wins) and 2005 (fourth place in the AL East with 74 wins). These were the days of Ponson, Palmeiro, Bedard, Javy Lopez and Brian Roberts in his prime. In my opinion one of these teams likely would have played into mid-October would they have played in the NL East versus the AL East.
How do you think the O’s would do with a different schedule, level of competition and no DH?
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