When it comes to winning games consistently over the course of a 162-game regular season, some fans denounce luck playing a major factor. While that ideology has merit, the numbers don’t lie.
The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were an example of a “lucky” team, riding a mediocre run differential all the way into October. It’s not to say they weren’t good, but it was hard to look at their team objectively and come to the conclusion that they were as good as their record stated.
Thus far in 2013, three teams stand out as beneficiaries of luck. From run differential to early-season scheduling favors to fellow rivals off to slow starts, all are fortunate to be in the position they are in heading into play on Tuesday evening.
Ironically, not every single one of the lucky teams actually has a winning record right now. While sitting under .500 rarely constitutes luck, the flip side could be a team in much, much worse shape.
Without further ado, the three luckiest teams in baseball in 2013.
*All stats and rankings valid through the end of play on May 20.
Washington Nationals, 23-22 (-25 run differential)
If not for Atlanta’s crash back down to earth after their sizzling start, the below-average play of the Washington Nationals would be a much bigger story around baseball right now. Despite coming into the season as the prohibitive National League favorite, the Nats have underperformed, playing more like a 19-26 mess than the slightly above .500 squad they’ve pretended to be this season.
While the offensive woes (28th in runs scored) can be directly correlated to injuries to Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman, the real worry stems from a pitching staff that has gone from dominant to average in the span of a year.
Outside of Jordan Zimmermann’s rise to prominence, the staff has been disappointing. Although 180 runs allowed at this juncture of the season may not seem horrible, it pales in comparison to the early-season dominance from this staff in 2012. Last summer, Washington didn’t allow it’s 180th run until June 7.
A good deal of the blame can be placed on Gio Gonzalez’s above 4.00 ERA and the mess that has become Dan Haren, but the ability to miss bats has eluded the group as whole. In 2012, Nationals pitchers ranked sixth in strikeout rate. They rank 22nd this season.
Furthermore, the numbers against everyone but the Miami Marlins are staggeringly bad.
When the Nats square off against Miami, they are 5-1, outscoring the Fish by 16 runs over the six games. Of course, that means they are just 18-21, with a -41 run differential, against the rest of the majors.
New York Yankees, 28-16, (+27 run differential)
Make no mistake: The Yankees are good, deserving of their spot atop the AL East and thriving amid a sea of expectations to fail.
Yet, they’re not this good. At least not as presently constituted.
While some may derive that winning close games is a mark of mental toughness and fortitude, it can also be deemed random and unsustainable. Thanks to the heroics of Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner in the big spot, New York is 8-3 in one-run games early on in 2013.
At 10-4, New York has the best winning percentage in the sport against left-handed starters. While there’s not necessarily luck in that statistic alone, it’s beyond staggering when you factor in the .654 team OPS that Joe Girardi’s club has put up against left-handed pitching.
To put that into perspective, the Yankees are winning at over a 71 percent clip against lefties despite running out a lineup (on those nights) that is the equivalent of having nine Josh Rutledge’s.
Also, let’s not forget the gift of timing from the schedule makers.
Nine early-season games against the new, improved Blue Jays looked daunting for the banged up Yankees. Instead, it’s resulted in an 8-1 record.
If you remove the games against Toronto from the Yankee equation, they are an 18-15 squad with a plus-eight run differential.
Philadelphia Phillies, 21-24, (-38 run differential)
Yes, somehow, someway, the Phillies have over-performed this season. In reality, the roster is performing more like an 18-27 group through the first 45 games of the campaign. Due to the walk-off win on Sunday against Aroldis Chapman, a competitive NL East and a fanbase holding on to this group for one more run, the organization may be fooled into thinking a complete rebuild isn’t necessary.
That would be a mistake.
The story of the Phillies has been about big-ticket pitchers. From Roy Halladay to Roy Oswalt to Cliff Lee to Cole Hamels, the rotation was expected to carry this franchise to a second World Series title since 2008. Of course, injuries and attrition haven’t allowed that to occur.
Yet it’s the offense that has gone from great to good to anemic over the last half decade.
The following represents Philadelphia’s year-by-year OPS marks since 2007: .812, .770, .781, .745, .717, .716 and .682.
From the rapid decline and health issues to former standouts to nonsensical additions by general manager Ruben Amaro, the Phillies lineup has taken a total nosedive into irrelevancy.
While the Yankees are running out nine Josh Rutledge’s against left-handed pitching, the Phils are running out the equivalent of eight Dan Uggla’s and the pitcher’s spot on a nightly basis.
Assuming Cole Hamels turns his season around and Cliff Lee remains a consistent ace, their rotation, even without Roy Halladay, will be enough to stay in most games.
Unfortunately, the team can’t hit enough to win them.
That’s why it’s not surprising to see that the 2013 Phillies can only claim a winning record over the Mets among teams they’ve seen for more than three games.
With Roy Halladay’s struggles, 21-24 seems lucky, yet the Fightins are far from it.
Do you believe in luck over the course of a baseball season?
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