Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez‘s 211-game suspension was reduced to 162 games today as a result of his appeal, as was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports added that he also wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason should the Yankees advance beyond the regular season.
While Rodriguez doesn’t appear to be giving up just yet—his statement on his Facebook page says he will take his fight to federal court—the Yankees can be all but certain that their 2014-15 season will be “A-Rod free” and they can plan accordingly.
That plan could still go one of at least two ways. With the money saved—Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that they will save $27.5 million on luxury tax payroll, although they would still be assessed an estimated $3.16 million because a full MLB year counts as 183 days—the Yankees could either choose to stay under the luxury tax threshold or they can go all out and continue their spending spree with an eye on putting the best possible team on the field in 2014.
In order to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million, which the Yankees believe could save them as much as $100 million over the next two seasons, according to the New York Post—ESPN reported that the Yankees’ luxury tax bill for 2013 was $28 million—they may have to get creative in order to fill several remaining holes on their roster.
The New York Post‘s “Yankees Payroll Tracker” currently has them at just over $151 million in guaranteed contracts while noting that teams are usually charged an estimated $11 million for items such as insurance and pension, and another $5 million is likely to be budgeted for in-season minor league call-ups.
Not included in the total are projected salaries for the team’s five arbitration-eligible players—Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Shawn Kelley, Ivan Nova and David Robertson. According to MLBTradeRumors’ projected arbitration salaries, these five players would combine to make $16.2 million in 2014.
In total, that’s an estimated $171 million in player salary—I added $3 million for players who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration. The aforementioned $16 million takes that total to an estimated $187 million.
Good luck filling out a roster that still needs at least one starter, at least two relievers and another player who could help fill the void at third base.
General manager Brian Cashman did a terrific job of bringing in some bargain-rate veterans last season. If the Yankees do intend to stay under the $189 million tax threshold, he’ll have to do the same. Here are some free agents who he could target:
Starting Pitchers
After CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, the Yankees will have former top prospect Manny Bañuelos, who is returning from October 2012 Tommy John surgery, Vidal Nuno, Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren competing for the last two spots in the rotation. If just one of them can step up and make a solid contribution to the rotation, the Yankees will be in good shape.
Counting on two of them, however, would be way too risky for a team hoping to stay in the playoff race for the entire season. But if they can get 15-20 decent starts from a veteran like Erik Bedard, Bruce Chen (pictured) or Freddy Garcia, without having to pay either more than $1 million, they’d have an even better chance of remaining in the playoff race throughout the 162-game season.
Relievers
David Robertson could very well be capable of handling the closing duties in New York. But who fills his eighth inning role? Currently, Shawn Kelley is the leading candidate after he posted a 4.39 ERA with a 3.9 BB/9, 12.0 K/9 and 11 holds in 57 appearances last season. It really wouldn’t that much of a surprise if he could handle the job.
But the Yankees’ bullpen gets extremely thin after that with lefty veteran Matt Thornton the only other proven pitcher slated to hold a spot. If Cashman is bargain shopping on the free agent market, he could possibly pick up a former closer, such as David Aardsma, Frank Francisco or Brandon Lyon, to help bridge the gap to Robertson. Or maybe Roy Oswalt (pictured), who MLBTradeRumors reported would be open to a late-inning relief role in 2014, would take a $1 million deal for a chance to be the team’s seventh or eighth inning setup man.
Third Basemen
Not even Mark Reynolds, a strikeout-prone slugger who isn’t a great defender at the hot corner, is likely to fit into this shoestring budget. Michael Young might take a $1 million deal knowing that he’ll have a shot at some semi-regular playing time. But I’m guessing he can at least double that amount on the free-agent market.
So unless they think someone like Yuniesky Betancourt or Alex Gonzalez are better options than Kelly Johnson and Eduardo Nuñez, it’s likely that they won’t go the free-agent route.
One “outside-the-box” trade option would be Conor Gillaspie of the Chicago White Sox, who will have to hold off newly acquired Matt Davidson if he’s going to have a spot on the 25-man roster. In 345 at-bats against right-handed pitching in 2013, the 26-year-old posted a .738 OPS with 12 homers and 13 doubles.
With Davidson expected to take over at some point in 2014, if not right away, the White Sox could be open to moving Gillaspie now.
A resulting 25-man roster with a sub-$189 million payroll for 2014 could look something like this …
Starting Lineup
1 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2 Derek Jeter, SS
3 Carlos Beltran, RF
4 Mark Teixeira, 1B
5 Brian McCann, C
6 Alfonso Soriano, DH
7 Brett Gardner, LF
8 Conor Gillaspie/Eduardo Nuñez, 3B
9 Brian Roberts/Kelly Johnson, 2B
Bench
Francisco Cervelli, C
Brendan Ryan, IF
Ichiro Suzuki, OF
Starting Rotation
1 CC Sabathia, LHP
2 Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
3 Ivan Nova, RHP
4 Bruce Chen, LHP
5 Michael Pineda, RHP
Bullpen
CL David Robertson, RHP
SU Shawn Kelley, RHP
SU Roy Oswalt, RHP
MID Frank Francisco, RHP
MID Matt Thornton, LHP
MID David Phelps, RHP
LR Adam Warren, RHP
Or in the case that the Yankees, who are baseball’s most valuable enterprise at a worth of $3.3 billion, according to Bloomberg.com, don’t really care about saving a measly $100 million in luxury taxes and look to once again position themselves as a World Series contender in 2014, here’s the potential result …
- Yankees sign Ubaldo Jimenez to three-year, $48 million contract.
- Yankees sign Grant Balfour to two-year, $14 million contract.
- Yankees sign Francisco Rodriguez to one-year, $3 million contract.
- Yankees sign Oliver Perez to two-year, $5 million contract.
- Yankees sign Masahiro Tanaka to six-year, $114 million contract.
- Yankees trade for Conor Gillaspie (I kind of like this idea regardless of their situation and considering their limited options)
A resulting 25-man roster with a 2014 payroll that could end up around $230 million could look something like this …
Starting Lineup
1 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2 Derek Jeter, SS
3 Carlos Beltran, RF
4 Mark Teixeira, 1B
5 Brian McCann, C
6 Alfonso Soriano, DH
7 Brett Gardner, LF
8 Conor Gillaspie/Eduardo Nuñez, 3B
9 Brian Roberts/Kelly Johnson, 2B
Bench
Francisco Cervelli, C
Brendan Ryan, IF
Ichiro Suzuki, OF
Starting Rotation
1 CC Sabathia, LHP
2 Masahiro Tanaka, RHP (pictured)
3 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
4 Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
5 Ivan Nova, RHP
Bullpen
CL Grant Balfour, RHP
SU David Robertson, RHP
SU Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
MID Oliver Perez, LHP
MID Shawn Kelley, RHP
MID Matt Thornton, LHP
LR David Phelps, RHP
It’s not my money, but a $100 million savings over a two-year period for a franchise that is valued at $3.3 billion doesn’t seem like it’s worth the difference in those two projected rosters.
The potential for a disastrous 2014-15 season, despite the three big-name veteran additions (Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann), that could occur with the sub-$189 million roster in place could have much greater long-term and “big picture” ramifications than a $100 million tax hit over a two-year period.
So go ahead, Yankees. You should spend your money. As much fun as it is for non-Yankees fans to see a $189 million team suffer through a terrible season, the 2014-15 season could be equally and even more pleasing if the “evil empire,” with all of their high-priced superstars, could be taken down by a seemingly lesser opponent.
The potential for a storybook ending would be much greater if the Yankees just continue to act like the Yankees.
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