The Seattle Mariners haven’t found a right-handed power hitter yet. But bless their heart, they sure are trying.
With righty power in short supply, the Mariners don’t have a laundry list of options. But thanks to Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, we know that general manager Jack Zduriencik is interested in the winter’s top trade options:
And thanks to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, we know Jack Z is also eyeing the top free-agent option:
We had previously heard from Nightengale that the Mariners were “aggressively pursuing” Hanley Ramirez, another righty swinger with power. He landed with the Boston Red Sox, but at the time I outlined why the Mariners’ head was in the right place. They were looking at a bat that could be:
- The dangerous right-handed presence they need alongside Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.
- The clean-up hitter they sorely lacked in 2014.
Simple stuff, but important. If the Mariners can acquire a guy who can fill those two needs, they could head into 2015 as the most balanced team in the American League.
Hypothetically, any of the four hitters on their radar now—they might also be interested in Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, but we’ll take Peter Gammons‘ word for it that Seattle is merely “lurking”—could fit with the Mariners like Ramirez could have. But the question is which could fit without costing too much.
So let’s go one by one and see what we can see.
Nelson Cruz
Naturally, one’s eyes are drawn to what Cruz did with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014. He was the league’s top power hitter, posting an .859 OPS and clubbing an MLB-high 40 home runs.
Not that Cruz was some slouch before 2014, mind you. Between 2009 and 2013, he racked up an .842 OPS and averaged 27 dingers. If the Mariners can sign him, it’s possible they’ll have found their best right-handed power hitter since Richie Sexson.
And yet, the reasons to be wary of Cruz are many.
There’s how he really wasn’t anything special for the majority of 2014, OPS’ing just .759 with 20 homers over his final 106 games. There’s also how his career-best production came at the age of 33 and how most of it came at designated hitter.
In the words of FanGraphs‘ Dave Cameron:
Signing a 34 year old in the hopes that they can repeat a career year is generally a bad bet, and if Cruz returns to something closer to prior form, he’s an average player who is about to get paid like an impact hitter.
Another thing for the Mariners to worry about is how Cruz has never had the misfortune of calling an extreme pitchers’ park home. After spending the last eight seasons swinging it at Globe Life Park in Arlington and Oriole Park at Camden Yards, it’s likely that he and Safeco Field wouldn’t get along so well.
It all adds up to a hefty list of question marks for a guy who’s going to cost a lot. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says Cruz wants a four-year deal, and Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get one worth $70 million. That’s in addition to a lost draft pick, of course.
Would Cruz work as a final puzzle piece? Maybe only barely and for a lot of money.
Matt Kemp
Kemp’s 2014 season boils down to a tale of two halves.
In the first half, Kemp only had a .760 OPS and eight home runs. In the second half, he had a .971 OPS and 17 home runs. It’s surely the latter performance that the Los Angeles Dodgers will try to benefit from if they trade him, something Jon Heyman says they’re indeed willing to do.
The big question for the Mariners: Is Kemp’s second-half rebound worth buying into?
That it was a vintage performance is one answer for a yes, with another being that there was a good reason for it. Kemp changed his stance around the All-Star break, and Dodgers assistant hitting coach John Valentin explained how it made a huge difference.
“He actually has straightened his stance,” Valentin told Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. “It used to be locked. What that created was a difficulty to have the freedom to stay through the baseball. This offers a clear path to hit balls in and away.”
As for what it would take to get Kemp, the big hurdle is the $107 million he’s owed over the next five years. But the Dodgers may be willing to eat some of that if the Mariners give them enough, and they have expendable assets they might be able to unload on the Dodgers.
The Dodgers need a shortstop, bullpen help and, possibly, a right fielder who could take Kemp’s place. To these ends, the Mariners could part with Brad Miller or Chris Taylor, one of their bullpen’s power arms and/or Michael Saunders.
One catch with a Kemp trade is that the Mariners would be taking on a guy who’s only one year removed from two injury-wrecked seasons and who, at 30, probably only has a couple good years left. Another is that he can’t run or defend like he once could.
Still, Kemp’s recent production and his experience in an extreme pitchers’ park in Dodger Stadium are appealing. That and the possibility he could be had in a sensible trade make him a solid overall target.
Yoenis Cespedes
Cespedes is going to hit you 20 homers. He’s hit at least 22 in each of his three seasons, and that he’s done so mostly at a big-time pitchers’ park in O.co Coliseum should appeal to the Mariners.
Exactly what else Cespedes can bring to the table is where things get iffy. He only has a .298 on-base percentage over the last two seasons. He’s not a particularly great baserunner. And while he has an outstanding arm, he’s not much of a defender otherwise.
In light of these faults, Cespedes is arguably the least attractive option on Seattle’s radar. A deal for him is possible but shouldn’t cost the Mariners anything they’d miss.
And if this tweet from Morosi is any indication, that may be impossible:
A deal like this would make sense to the extent that it would be a free-agent-to-be for a free-agent-to-be, and it would net the Mariners the power bat they desire.
But they’d also be parting with a guy who owns a 2.97 ERA in 77 career starts. Iwakuma is also owed $7 million in 2015, compared to $10.5 million for Cespedes. Swapping their salaries would thus make it a little tougher for the Mariners to add a suitable replacement from the open market.
Granted, maybe there’s a way for the Mariners to get Cespedes without sacrificing Iwakuma. But because of their desperate need for starting pitching, the Red Sox would probably demand a trade structured around Taijuan Walker or James Paxton if they can’t get Iwakuma.
And if the Mariners are going to give up one of those guys, they’d be better off going for…
Justin Upton
You’ll recall this is a road the Mariners tried to go down two winters ago.
B/R’s own Scott Miller, then of CBSSports.com, reported that the Mariners agreed to acquire Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Walker and three other players, only to come away with nothing thanks to Upton’s no-trade protection.
Since then, Upton has gone on to compile an .826 OPS and 56 home runs despite playing mainly in Turner Field’s pitcher-friendly environment. And according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, he’s removed the Mariners from his no-trade list and is now actively being shopped.
But the Braves want a lot for him. More than they got for Jason Heyward, in fact.
I outlined last week why that’s a sensible stance. And because Atlanta got a talented, controllable young starter for Heyward in the person of Shelby Miller, the easy assumption to make is that Walker would once again have to be the centerpiece of a deal.
Either him or Paxton, anyway. And while it would undoubtedly be a better idea to trade one of them for him than for Cespedes, the Mariners would still be chipping away at a supply of controllable talent to add a rental talent. Like Cespedes, Upton is also a free agent after 2015.
So rather than a straight-up swap, the Mariners would likely have to get creative. ESPN’s David Schoenfield recommended adding either Miller or Taylor to the deal in hopes of also getting Evan Gattis, which would definitely be a sweeter haul.
But even then, it wouldn’t be a slam dunk. The Mariners would have a deeper offense but a shallower pitching staff. And with Upton a likely goner after 2015, the deeper offense wouldn’t last forever.
So then…
So Then…
This being a thing on the Internet, I’ll rank the four targets on Seattle’s radar in order from most sensible (one) to least sensible (four):
- Kemp
- Upton
- Cruz
- Cespedes
Cespedes being at the bottom has much to do with him simply being the worst hitter of the four, though the likely Iwakuma-sized price tag is also a pretty big factor. As for Cruz, the possibility of the Mariners getting burned by a big contact for an aging hitter who’s too used to hitter-friendly parks is just too real.
That leaves Kemp and Upton. I’d take Upton’s abilities over Kemp’s, and that he’s only 27 makes him easily more attractive from an age perspective. The possibility that Kemp could be acquired for expendable assets and controlled beyond 2015, however, gives him the edge.
Now you know who Zach D would be targeting if he was Jack Z. If he’s able to pull it off, you’re going to want to watch out for the Mariners in 2015 and beyond. They’re already pretty good, and a deal for Kemp could well be what makes them great.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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