Here is your Week 10 fantasy stock report, as we take a look at some of the risers and fallers in the fantasy baseball stock market and what you should do with them if you have them or want them.
Whose Stock Is Up:
Marlon Byrd (15-for-29, 8 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI): He got off to a red hot start this year and was owned in every league by the end of April. He struggled during the month of May, slumping pretty hard at points, and started to get dropped in leagues.
Now, in the last week, he’s been added again and is closing in on 100 percent ownership once more.
He’s got solid pop, a little speed, and he’s been scoring runs. He’s a solid fourth or fifth outfielder in leagues that use as many. He is streaky, so you may want someone decent to plug in when he hits a cold spell, but don’t make the mistake others did last month and drop him during one of those streaks.
Austin Kearns (10-for-25, 8 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB): Austin Kearns is having a solid year so far in Cleveland and has earned himself a spot on deep league teams, but is this all a fluke, or can he maintain this kind of season?
His BABIP is over .400, so you have to think the average is going to dip down, probably a good 20–30 points. The power numbers are legitimate, and he is capable of 20 HRs and 80 RBI. As for the speed, don’t expect too much more. His spot is in deep leagues and possibly a fringe guy in standard leagues.
Erick Aybar (15-for-31, 7 R, 5 RBI, 1 SB): He’s a steady three-category contributor who flies under the radar a bit. He was a Top 100 prospect all through his Minor League career.
He has elite speed with the potential for 40 steals, he just has to become a smarter baserunner and refine his approach to avoid getting caught as much as he does.
He’s one of the top run-scoring shortstops, and as the Angels heat up, so will he. Available in about 25 percent of leagues, I think his upside pushes him ahead of guys like Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, and Alex Gonzalez, who are all owned in more leagues.
Carlos Pena (9-for-24, 9 R, 6 HR, 9 RBI): We knew it was only a matter of time before he went on a homer run like this one. Pena has that elite raw power that very few people possess. Unfortunately, despite this hot streak his batting average is below .200, and he is still striking out a ton, which is usual for him.
The good news is his BABIP is currently .206 and his career average is .283, so the average should keep going up, the bad news is he’s still a career .244 hitter who will always strike out a lot.
If you need power, he will probably still come cheap despite this streak, because of the average and strikeouts, but be prepared to take a hit to your BA. If you have guys to carry his poor average or you’re already too far behind to catch up in that category than he might be a guy to target.
Josh Hamilton (9-for-24, 5 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI): The Josh Hamilton of 2009 seems to be gone and the Josh Hamilton of 2008 is back, or at least close to it.
He’s hitting for power, he’s hitting for average, and most importantly he’s hitting with runners on at a .358 clip. That’s currently 40 points higher than 2008, when he knocked in more runs than anyone else in baseball.
He’s not even being mentioned in the conversation with the top outfielders, but he’s on pace for 30 HRs and 110 RBI; he’s one of the top outfield options.
Whose Stock Is Down:
Starlin Castro (4-for-25, 1 R, 1 RBI): This 20-year-old came into the big leagues with a big debut and caught everyone’s attention doing it. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a history of power and he’s not stealing bases right now.
He has a big future and will be a .300 hitter with 30 steals and 10–15 home runs within a couple years, but if you’re not in a keeper league or a deep league, he’s probably not a guy you need to own right now.
Jose Bautista (0-for-19, 1 R): Bautista already has a career high in home runs and it’s only June, so I think we all knew a slump like this was coming. Bautista has power, but he’s never had the kind of power that we’ve seen this year, and I’m not sure he can sustain it.
His home-run-per-fly-ball rate is twice his career rate right now, and he’s getting the ball in the air a lot more than usual as well.
It’s been great to have the power he’s brought, but I think if you can sell him high, it’s in your best interest. The average is going to hurt you and I don’t think he can maintain the power, or even close to it.
Adam Laroche (3-for-23, 3 RBI): He’s basically doing what he’s done for the past few years and nothing more. He’s struggling right now, but Laroche is consistently a solid, but not spectacular player, and this year should provide more of the same.
He’s a bit under his career average, and it should get a little bit better, as his .323 BABIP should lead to a higher average than his current .245 average. He’s really a fringe guy in standard leagues, but he’s a consistent enough performer to own in anything deeper.
Jason Bay (1-for-20, 1 R): I don’t think anyone who drafted Bay expected to get the most contribution from him in steals and runs scored, but that’s what’s happening.
We all assumed his power numbers would take a hit going to Citi Field, but only homering in two games so far is a bit ridiculous, and he’s not driving people in either, as he is hitting .227 with runners in scoring position.
You don’t really want to drop Bay cause it seems inevitable that he’s going to turn it around, but right now he’s not better than a third or fourth outfielder.
Adam Lind (3-for-22, 1 R, 1 RBI): Lind is struggling, and struggling hard right now, especially against lefties, whom he is hitting .109 against; there’s no way he can keep playing against left-handers if that keeps up.
But keep in mind he does have a .248 BABIP and a 8.1% HR/FB ratio, which shows that he’s been a bit unlucky and the numbers should be improving, hopefully sooner than later for his owners.
I doubt you’re going to get much in return for him at this point, so your best bet is to hold tight and wait for the turn around.
What does everyone else think about guys like Lind and Bay? What are you doing with guys you drafted so high, who are producing the way they are? What about some of the hotter hitters, anyone you’re buying into? Let’s hear your feedback.
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