With the recent news that closer Kenley Jansen will be out for two or three months, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have a new back of the bullpen for the first part of the season. There are a few different potential replacements currently on the Dodger roster: Joel Peralta, Yimi Garcia, and Dustin McGowan.
Those three seem the most likely because of their combination of track record and pure stuff. Typically, closers throw hard and strike batters out, and each of those three has the potential to do that.
Joel Peralta, 5 Percent
Peralta is the most established member of the Dodger bullpen. He will be 39 years old on Opening Day, and he has filled in as a closer before as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. He has 12 career saves, and he still throws really hard, as you can see from this chart from BrooksBaseball.
He seems to be the most likely option to get the first shot because he has virtually no platoon split and he will slot in at the back end of the bullpen anyway. It would be a seamless transition to bump him back to the eighth inning when Jansen comes back.
Yimi Garcia, 2 Percent
Garcia is at the opposite end of the experience spectrum and isn’t seen as an elite reliever prospect given his lack of incredible strikeout potential. His career strikeout rate in the minor leagues is 10.8 per nine innings, which would have ranked around 30th in the majors last year. However, he was a closer in the lower minors early in his career, and he accumulated 36 saves across 2012 and 2013. Because of that track record and experience in the ninth inning, he could get a shot—although that is unlikely given his youth.
Dustin McGowan, 1 Percent
McGowan is probably a long shot, but he certainly has closer potential. He was a mediocre starter who missed a couple of years with injury, but the Dodgers signed him as a reliever. He has never put up elite numbers, but his stats as a reliever are better than as a starter. Additionally, he still has excellent velocity so could be a dark-horse candidate if Peralta or others fail in the job. However, he would have to perform at a level above what we have seen him do.
Others, 1 Percent
There are a few other potential options that have late-game experience. Paco Rodriguez was excellent in 2013 but barely appeared in 2014, so he is a long shot. Brandon League has 74 career saves but has essentially turned into a platoon reliever unable to get lefties out. J.P. Howell was quite good for much of 2014 but then faded down the stretch, so others will likely get a chance before he does. The further down the list we go, the less likely it is that any individual pitcher keeps the job over even the others on this list, let alone Jansen.
Jansen, 90-plus Percent
Ultimately, though, the only way anyone other than Jansen is the closer by midseason is if he cannot get back on the mound. The big righty from Curacao is one of the best relievers in all of baseball, and he should be reinstalled as the closer as soon as he gets back. However, the scary nature of this surgery—two or three months for a foot injury is worrisome—makes it difficult to rely on the listed timetable.
Jansen is a great pitcher. He has the third-highest strikeout rate and third-best xFIP among all relievers over the last five years. His dominance cannot be overstated, and so there is no performance from any of his potential replacements that would result in him losing his job.
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