This past offseason saw plenty of pitchers cash in on the free-agent market, but the upcoming class of free-agent arms could be the best we’ve seen in a long time.
Last winter, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields headlined a solid crop of starters that also included the likes of Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana, Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Hammel.
This time around, there are once again a trio of ace-caliber arms at the top in David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmerman, but the arms behind them are deeper than any group in recent memory.
Let’s start with a quick ranking of the top 25 starters who could potentially be available.
1. David Price
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Jordan Zimmermann
4. Jeff Samardzija
5. Doug Fister
6. Scott Kazmir
7. Ian Kennedy
8. Mat Latos
9. Hisashi Iwakuma
10. Yovani Gallardo
11. Mike Leake
12. Wei-Yin Chen
13. Mark Buehrle
14. Kyle Lohse
15. Bartolo Colon
16. Tim Lincecum
17. A.J. Burnett
18. Tim Hudson
19. Bud Norris
20. John Lackey
21. Alfredo Simon
22. J.A. Happ
23. Aaron Harang
24. Brandon Morrow
25. Justin Masterson
They are obviously not all front-line starters, but those are 25 pitchers who should be able to legitimately make an impact on a team’s pitching staff in 2016 and beyond.
This group will be worth keeping an eye on throughout the 2015 season, as guys jockey for position on that list and try to set themselves up for an even more lucrative payday.
For now, let’s take a look at a handful of pitchers whose stocks are up and a few whose stocks are trending in the other direction as well.
Stock Up
Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
(4 GS, 2-0, 0.99 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, 9 BB, 30 K, 27.1 IP)
Out of the majors altogether in 2012, Scott Kazmir has been one of the more impressive comeback stories in recent memory, and at 31 years old, he still has plenty of good baseball ahead of him.
A bounce-back season with the Cleveland Indians in 2013 earned him a two-year, $22 million deal from the Oakland Athletics, who were in need of a veteran starter to replace Bartolo Colon in the rotation.
At that price, the left-hander wound up being a steal, as he went 15-9 with a 3.55 ERA and made the All-Star team for the third time in his career.
He’s put himself in a good position to at least land something in the neighborhood of the three-year, $39 million deal Francisco Liriano signed this past offseason, and if his hot start continues, that price tag figures to climb.
“Every time he goes out there, we feel like we have a good chance to win, even if we’re not squaring the bats well,” manager Bob Melvin told Jane Lee of MLB.com.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
(3 GS, 1-1, 2.00 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 7 BB, 14 K, 18.0 IP)
It wasn’t all that long ago that Tim Lincecum was very much in the conversation for the title of best pitcher in the game.
From 2008 to 2011, he went 62-36 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.173 WHIP and 977 strikeouts in 881.2 innings. That stretch included three strikeout titles, four All-Star appearances and a pair of NL Cy Young awards.
However, in the three years since, he’s been a different pitcher, posting a 32-38 record with a 4.76 ERA and 1.391 WHIP.
Those struggles didn’t stop the Giants from handing the 30-year-old a two-year, $35 million extension prior to the 2014 season, and if he keeps pitching well, the team could be inclined to lock him up for at least a couple more seasons.
Alfredo Simon, Detroit Tigers
(3 GS, 3-0, 1.74 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 2 BB, 12 K, 20.2 IP)
Count me among those who were skeptical about Alfredo Simon following up his breakout 2014 season with another productive performance.
Forced into the starting rotation last season with Mat Latos ailing, Simon unexpectedly went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA during the first half of the season to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team.
However, that was followed by a second half that saw him go 3-7 with a 4.52 ERA, and with a 4.33 FIP overall, that second-half showing seemed more indicative of what to expect from the big right-hander moving forward.
Instead, he’s off to a great start in a reworked Detroit Tigers rotation that has been among the best in baseball here in the early going.
Simon will be 34 years old in May, so chances are he’s not headed for a big payday regardless, but a solid season could put him in position for a multiyear deal.
Others Whose Stocks Are Up
A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, J.A. Happ, Aaron Harang, Brandon Morrow
Stock Down
Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
(3 GS, 0-1, 6.61 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 3 BB, 11 K, 16.1 IP)
After a strong showing as a 31-year-old rookie in 2012, Hisashi Iwakuma emerged as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2013, going 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.006 WHIP to finish third in AL Cy Young voting.
The right-hander was solid once again for most of last season, finishing the year 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA, but he struggled mightily down the stretch with a 7.88 ERA over his final seven starts.
Those struggles have carried over into 2015, and a less effective splitter is to blame.
Opponents hit just .184 against the pitch with a .251 slugging percentage in 2013, but those numbers have spiked to a .260 average and .438 slugging percentage over his last 10 starts, per Brooks Baseball.
Add to that a recent trip to the disabled list for a lat strain, and Iwakuma‘s stock is undoubtedly trending downward.
Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
(4 GS, 1-3, 7.94 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K, 22.2 IP)
With Yovani Gallardo traded to the Texas Rangers in the offseason, veteran Kyle Lohse earned the Opening Day start for the Milwaukee Brewers this season, the third time in his career he’s received that honor.
However, the enjoyment of that honor was short-lived, as the Colorado Rockies shelled the 36-year-old for 10 hits and eight earned runs in 3.1 innings of work.
His subsequent starts have not been nearly as bad, but he’d struggled nonetheless prior to allowing three hits and two runs in seven innings to pick up his first win of the season on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds.
Lohse has quietly been one of the most consistent starters in the game in recent years, going 54-30 with a 3.28 ERA over the past four seasons and topping 180 innings each year. Given his age, though, he’ll need a great season to have any chance at a multiyear deal.
Others Whose Stocks Are Down
Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Bud Norris, Jordan Zimmermann
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted, and current through Friday, April 24.
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