Now that baseball is back, there’s no slowing down until October. The daily fantasy grind continues on Saturday with a full day of MLB action.
While this guide focuses heavily on the 11 evening games, one sneaky stack looks like a nice early complement to an afternoon lineup led by Clayton Kershaw and/or Michael Pineda.
Day and night, Saturday’s tilt revolves around marquee pitchers. After allotting a large share of the budget for arms, daily players won’t need to squint too hard to find underpriced hitters.
Pitching Strategy: Pay Up for Stellar Southpaws
After Friday’s return to action featured surprisingly few aces, Saturday welcomes back several top hurlers. Gamers don’t need to splurge for the most expensive choices, but they should pinpoint two high-end options.
The best values are Francisco Liriano and Jon Lester, who respectively face the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves. Both opponents rank in the bottom five of weighted on-base average versus lefties, and Atlanta is even more vulnerable without Freddie Freeman.
While he didn’t join Gerrit Cole and A.J. Burnett on the All-Star roster, Liriano has submitted a sparkling 2.98 ERA and 9.81 strikeouts per nine innings, earning nine quality starts through his past 10 outings. Enduring a bumpy inauguration with the Chicago Cubs, Lester has rebounded with a 2.35 ERA over his last six starts.
Afternoon gamers will want to pay for some combination of Kershaw, Pineda and Jose Quintana and lasso inexpensive offense. For night owls looking for more options, the Colorado Rockies will trade Coors Field for Petco Park against Tyson Ross. At $4,700, Manny Banuelos offers considerable upside as a tournament punt.
Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Jeremy Guthrie)
Entering the All-Star break with MLB’s worst weighted on-base average (wOBA), the Chicago White Sox can start the second half right against Jeremy Guthrie. The Kansas City Royals veteran registered a 7.40 ERA in eight road starts and issued a .927 OPS against lefties, creating an interesting, under-the-radar stack in the Windy City.
Jose Abreu won’t go unnoticed, but Adam LaRoche provides a cheaper alternative at first base. Even during a down year, the notorious late-season slugger sports a .339 wOBA versus righties.
Both Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera have caught fire following terrible starts. Eaton, entrenched in the leadoff spot, is hitting .265 with five homers and four steals since June 1. Awaking from an early slumber, Cabrera has caught fire in July, batting .304/.346/.522.
LaRoche, Eaton and Cabrera have all performed better than their first-half rates, and Guthrie is the perfect pitcher to lead them back on track.
Bargain Bats
OF David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,700) vs. San Francisco
An underrated hitter and righty-killer, David Peralta should have DFS gamers’ attention by now. Along with his .513 slugging percentage and .369 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, he has registered a 1.122 July OPS.
If the Arizona Diamondbacks trot out the same lineup as Friday night, he’ll bat second sandwiched between A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. While Jake Peavy has made two solid starts since returning from the disabled list, lefties clocked him for 16 homers last year.
C/1B Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics ($3,600) vs. Minnesota
The evening’s most expensive healthy catcher—an inactive Travis d’Arnaud costs $4,400—behind Buster Posey, Stephen Vogt still represents a noteworthy value at $3,600. Exiting the break hitting .302/.392/.550 against righties, he faces one of baseball’s heaviest fly-ball pitchers in Phil Hughes.
While the 30-year-old lefty has fizzled after two dominant months, his overall success versus righties makes him a dangerous catcher against Hughes’ 41.7 fly-ball percentage.
2B/SS Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,800) vs. Miami
Cesar Hernandez seemed like a prime candidate for a major price hike after the break. Sporting a .362 on-base percentage on the season with nine stolen bases since June 28, many gamers routinely rode the Philadelphia Phillies middle infielder throughout July.
At $2,800 with eligibility at both second base and shortstop, continue to look Hernandez’s way. While the switch-hitter has fared better against lefties, righty Tom Koehler has a .755 OPS versus lefty hitters. The speedster’s 11.1 walk percentage makes him a better bet than other burners who struggle to reach base. He sure beats using Danny Santana at the same price.
OF David Murphy, Cleveland Indians ($2,800) at Cincinnati
Ryan Raburn gets touted every time the Cleveland Indians play a righty, and it’s time to acknowledge the other half of their fruitful platoon. David Murphy is hitting .313/.359/.460 against righties this year.
While Anthony DeSclafani has limited opposing lefties to a .232 batting average, they have also tallied 20 extra base hits. Since an amazing April, the Cincinnati Reds hurler has regressed with a 4.56 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Murphy makes a great outfielder punt play, and teammates Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are worth a look as pricier options.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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