It’s never too early to think ahead. With the MLB season chugging along toward its conclusion, some downtrodden teams already have their eyes on the offseason.
Clubs not harboring any postseason aspirations will be fantasizing about free agents. Not everyone possesses the deep pockets to sign a superstar, meaning some top names will shift locations as small-market clubs get more creative.
Nobody wants to think about dark winter days when the summer sun is shining bright, but the Starks have a saying about that. Months from now, baseball season will be over, and everyone will spend their time agonizing over every offseason step.
These two hitters are nearly a decade apart in age and will become multiple millions apart in salary, but both are bolstering their stock this season. Let’s take a look at what may lie ahead for them.
Yoenis Cespedes
When the New York Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes before the non-waiver trade deadline, they knew they were getting a rental. Desperate for their first playoff appearance since 2006 and embarrassed by the Carlos Gomez trade that never happened, they splurged on the Detroit Tigers outfielder at the end of his original four-year deal.
Shortly after his arrival, he spoke fondly of his brief time with the Mets, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin.
“This is something I can’t control,” Cespedes said through an interpreter. “I don’t know what the front office is thinking about. But with what I see so far, I would love for everything to work out and stay as a Met for a long, long time, because I like the atmosphere.”
Yet even if his desire to stay amounts to more than a polite sentiment, the Wilpons won’t shell out the cash necessary to keep him. They’re on the hook to pay Michael Cuddyer $12.5 million next year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and Michael Conforto is ready to take over left field, while they hope a healthy Juan Lagares returns to 2013 form in center.
Cespedes is pricing himself out of most teams’ reach with a career year, hitting .290/.319/.490 with 18 homers. While he offered better numbers as a rookie in 2012, he has excelled in left field, registering the top ultimate zone rating (UZR) among left fielders.
Even with his .316 career on-base percentage, the 29-year-old will land a lucrative payday due to his power and defense. As one agent told the Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo, “A five-year, $100 million deal isn’t out of the question.”
Who can shell out that cash? Perhaps the team that just sold him. USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale suggested Cespedes and the Tigers parted ways on good terms:
The Boston Red Sox held a similar thought when trading Jon Lester for Cespedes last summer, but the ace instead bolted to the Chicago Cubs.
Like Boston, Detroit is a big-market, perennial contender that decided to accumulate assets for a pending free agent during a down year. Under owner Mike Ilitch, the Tigers are unlikely to start rebuilding over the winter. Expect them to orchestrate a reunion with the slugger they acquired for Rick Porcello last offseason.
Prediction: Cespedes rejoins Tigers for five-year, $110 million deal.
A.J. Pierzynski
Although he’s not at Cespedes‘ level, A.J. Pierzynski has helped his market value with a strong campaign. The 38-year-old catcher is enjoying his best offensive output since 2012, hitting .296/.333/.434 with seven homers and a 1.7 WAR for the Atlanta Braves.
Despite remaining an aggressive batter, he’s searching for his first .300 average since 2009 with help from a microscopic 8.5 strikeout percentage and his highest line-drive percentage (24.2) since 2002. Last Friday, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted his hot streak before adding two more hits on Saturday:
Most clubs with a 51-62 record would have converted that stretch into a prospect at the non-waiver trade deadline, but the Braves are considering keeping him around for next season instead. According to Cafardo, they’re open to bringing back the fiery veteran.
“While it’s not assured yet,” he wrote, “the Braves want Pierzynski back for another season if the price is right.”
Before the season began, Atlanta seemingly acknowledged its need for fresh blood by dealing Craig Kimbrel and Jason Heyward, who will also hit free agency this offseason. But they recently acquired Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher from the Cleveland Indians, two highly compensated veterans on the way down.
Strong season aside, Pierzynski shouldn’t inspire a bidding war this winter. In 2014, he hit .251/.288/.337 with a minus-0.6 WAR and a career-low five homers. The catcher is already defying the odds by remaining upright and productive at age 38, so why gamble on him being astounding at 39?
If the Braves want him back as a regular contributor, they shouldn’t have much trouble working something out.
Prediction: Pierzynski signs two-year, $14 million deal to close out career.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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