The already-classic National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets is going the distance. Would you have it any other way?
We’ve seen Twitter-exploding controversy in the form of Chase Utley’s slide heard ’round the world. We’ve been treated to superlative starting pitching on both sides, with a few offensive outbursts sprinkled in. And, through it all, we’ve watched two well-matched clubs push one another to the brink.
It all culminates in Game 5 on Thursday in Los Angeles, with the winner advancing to face the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series and the loser limping into the offseason with a head full of what-ifs.
As we get ready for what figures to be an epic, must-see clash, let’s examine a few keys that could tip the outcome.
Duel of the aces
Clayton Kershaw exorcised his playoff demons with a dominant performance in Game 4, and now the Dodgers will turn to their co-ace, Zack Greinke, in the do-or-die finale.
After a Cy Young-caliber season, Greinke was excellent in Game 2, tossing seven innings of two-run, five-hit ball with eight strikeouts and picking up the win.
In all, Mets hitters own a collective .215/.268/.331 slash line against Greinke. The Dodgers right-hander was susceptible to the long ball in Game 2, giving up solo home runs to outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto. And first baseman Lucas Duda, who is 2-for-15 this postseason with nine strikeouts, does have three hits in 12 career at-bats against Greinke, including a home run.
The key may be getting to Greinke in the first few frames, as CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder outlined:
One thing that’s interesting is that while most pitchers have the most trouble the third time through the order, Greinke’s worst time this season was the first time through, and that’s when the Mets hit him last time [in Game 2]. Scoring early is always a plus, and it appears to be of extra importance for the Mets in this one.
Greinke’s counterpart will be Jacob deGrom, who threw seven shutout innings with 13 strikeouts in Game 1, outdueling Kershaw in the process.
Now, for an encore, the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year will attempt to slay Los Angeles’ other baseball-slinging dragon.
He’s up to the challenge, according to no less an authority than Kershaw himself.
“You know what? It’s probably dead even, to be honest,” Kershaw said of the Game 5 pitching matchup, per the New York Times‘ Benjamin Hoffman. ““As good as Zack is and has been the whole year, deGrom has been the same.”
Like Greinke against the Mets, deGrom has fared well against the Dodgers’ hitters collectively, limiting them to a .175/.288/.368 slash line, though Adrian Gonzalez (3-for-8 with two home runs) and the infamous Mr. Utley (3-for-10 with two walks) have had some success against him.
Dodgers’ outfield outage
As the Dodgers try to ding deGrom, they could desperately use a contribution from their outfield, which has been an offensive black hole in this series.
In fact, black hole might be putting it lightly: Dodgers outfielders have gone 8-for-46 with 17 strikeouts and one extra-base hit against Mets pitching.
Kike Hernandez (4-for-10 with three runs scored) has acquitted himself capably since taking over for rookie Joc Pederson, and Andre Ethier has three hits in 12 at-bats, including a double.
But Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, Justin Ruggiano and Pederson have provided essentially zero at the plate, going 1-for-24.
They don’t have to come alive for the Dodgers to win Game 5, but something—anything—would help.
The Syndergaard wild card
The plan for both teams is for the starting pitchers to go deep. If and when the bullpen phones ring, however, the Mets have a potent, not-so-secret weapon.
That’d be hard-throwing rookie right-hander Noah Syndergaard, who singed the radar gun in Game 2, striking out nine in 6.1 innings. Yes, he coughed up three runs and took the loss. But he looked mostly dominant, and he’ll be available on normal rest if needed.
Heck, even Game 3 starter Matt Harvey “will be ready,” manager Terry Collins said, per Peter Botte of the New York Daily News.
Syndergaard, though, figures to be the first man up, and could create a well-girded bridge to closer Jeurys Familia.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have no such luxury. Their starting rotation is littered with question marks after Greinke-Kershaw (No. 3 starter Brett Anderson got shelled in Game 3), and Kershaw is likely unavailable after throwing 94 pitches on three days’ rest Tuesday.
Will that be the difference? Not if Greinke and deGrom sizzle wire to wire, obviously. But considering that Greinke threw just one complete game all season and deGrom has never gone the distance in the big leagues, the pens should come into play. And that might be where the scales tip in New York’s favor.
Then again, perhaps Kershaw will make an improbable relief appearance, calling to mind Randy Johnson in 2001 or Madison Bumgarner last fall.
There are so many twists this game—and, by extension, this series—could take. We’ll just have to sit back, watch and undoubtedly be entertained.
Would you have it any other way?
All statistics current as of Oct. 14 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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