If the saying goes that a playoff series doesn’t really begin until both teams have played a home game, the New York Mets loudly announced their presence in the World Series with an impressive victory over the Kansas City Royals in Game 3.
Now, the Mets will turn to rookie pitcher Steven Matz to even the series against Kansas City’s wily veteran Chris Young in Game 4 at Citi Field on Saturday night.
These two pitchers have vastly different approaches to the game, as Matz brings power stuff and youthful ignorance and Young succeeds by changing speeds and frustrating hitters with his ability to alter eye levels.
Pitching Analysis
One potential advantage the Mets could have over the Royals in this game is Young’s three-inning relief appearance in Game 1 of that 14-inning affair.
Even though Mets hitters didn’t have a hit against Young in his relief stint, it did get them a look at what he has to offer.
According to MLB.com, the Mets’ projected lineup for Game 4 has a total of 15 at-bats against Young, 11 by Yoenis Cespedes. That was before Tuesday’s game, so every starter on Saturday except Michael Conforto got a look at the right-hander.
In contrast, Matz has made just eight career starts including the postseason and hasn’t been seen by anyone in Kansas City’s lineup.
This is the first World Series start for both pitchers, but Matz will be under the microscope because he’s the 24-year-old rookie throwing at home.
Fortunately for Mets fans, per Ryan Hatch of NJ.com, Matz is taking things as they come instead of dwelling on how young and inexperienced he is.
“This is where you want to be in baseball,” Matz said. “This is the dream. … This is what you write up in your backyard when you’re playing Wiffle ball.”
Matz should also be relaxed prior to the start because he will be driving to the ball park from his parents’ house in Long Island.
While the starting pitching should be the focus, as it’s played a pivotal role in the outcome of the last two games, Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated did note that Young and Matz have not been given long leashes in October:
He (Young) averaged 5.5 innings per start during the regular season and hasn’t thrown as many as 80 pitches in a single appearance in four weeks. In the National League park, where he’s as likely to depart for a pinch-hitter as he is because of fatigue or ineffectiveness on the mound, Young seems unlikely to pitch past the fifth inning. The same can be said about Matz, who has completed the sixth inning just once in six starts since returning from a torn latissimus dorsi muscle in early September. Matz hasn’t thrown a pitch in the sixth inning in more than five weeks.
Matz couldn’t even make it to five innings in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Chicago Cubs, in which the Mets were winning 6-0 after 3.5 innings.
Young also had a game like that against the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. He was staked to a 5-0 lead after two innings and had a 5-2 lead after three innings but couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. Kansas City’s offense did torch Toronto’s bullpen for nine runs over the last three innings to turn a three-run game into a 14-2 blowout.
Assuming both bullpens see a lot of use in this game, neither team should have restrictions on anyone. Kansas City manager Ned Yost used six relievers on Friday, including Kelvin Herrera despite the Royals trailing by three runs, but only Franklin Morales threw more than 20 pitches.
The Mets used their main trio of relievers (Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia) for the final three innings with none of them throwing more than 13 pitches.
For all the talk of Kansas City’s main relievers being untouchable, the Mets have gotten to Herrera without having that one big inning against him yet. The hard-throwing right-hander has thrown just two innings in the World Series, but he has allowed four hits, one walk and one unearned run.
The Royals are still favorites if any of the remaining games depend on relievers, but with the exception of Wade Davis, Yost‘s Big Three with Herrera and Ryan Madson looks as vulnerable as it has this season.
Prediction
Given the way New York’s offense finally came alive in Game 3, pushing its home record in the playoffs to 4-1, the Mets do have confidence. Matz has to pound the strike zone better than he has in his first two postseason starts, but he no longer has to feel like perfection is necessary to win.
Young has been far better this October than anyone could have predicted, as it’s rare for someone who doesn’t break 90 mph with the fastball to average more than one strikeout per inning pitched.
The Mets had adrenaline and the crowd working on their side Friday. Citi Field will be alive again on Halloween, but the Royals have responded to losses on the road every single round this postseason with a victory.
The Royals are going to win the game thanks to a bounce-back effort from the lineup and strong bullpen work from Yost‘s stable of relievers.
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