As the Kansas City Royals celebrate their World Series victory over the New York Mets, MLB teams will waste little time preparing for the offseason.
A few notable World Series participants will quickly shift their focus to free agency. Two drastically different outfielders from each side will hit the open market this winter. While one halted his rapidly rising stock, the other may have boosted his appeal with one monumental swing.
Facing key decisions, the Royals and Mets won’t spend much time basking in their postseason accomplishments. With the offseason beginning, let’s take an early look at three prominent free-agent hitters.
Yoenis Cespedes
Poor postseason aside, Yoenis Cespedes remains one of the offseason’s top free agents. The 30-year-old hit .291/.328/.542 with a career-high 35 home runs, 17 of which he smacked through 57 games with the Mets. Before moving to center field, sensational defense in left led him to a 6.7 WAR, soaring past his previous career best of 3.3.
His late-season power outburst led the Mets to their first National League East title since 2006, but a report from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman suggests Cespedes‘ status as a midseason rental hasn’t changed.
“There is increasing belief the Mets will let Yoenis Cespedes walk for big bucks via free agency,” Heyman wrote. “Though Cespedes has played brilliantly for them, people around the game figure they will save the big bucks for their vaunted young pitching staff.”
The postseason has offered a sobering reminder of his flaws. Holding a minuscule 6.1 walk percentage over his career, the aggressive slugger will swing at anything, leading to 17 strikeouts and one walk through 55 playoff plate appearances. There’s a reason he has played on four teams over the past three years, and it’s his .319 career on-base percentage.
Of course, the Mets didn’t mind his poor plate discipline when he clobbered baseballs left and right, but his power barrage priced the outfielder out of their future plans. Playing him in center is also unsustainable over the long haul, and Michael Conforto has left field locked down for 2016 and beyond.
The Detroit Tigers—who dealt him to the Mets last July with the playoffs out of reach—will look to quickly revamp their roster for a return to October baseball. They have the money and willingness to spend big on aging stars, so look for a reunion.
Prediction: Cespedes signs five-year deal with Detroit Tigers
Alex Gordon
If not for Alex Gordon, the Royals are going back to Kansas City to close out the World Series. Instead, he pelted Jeurys Familia for a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 1, making their 14-inning victory possible. The Mets closer had not blown a save since late July before the huge blast.
ESPN Stats & Info also pointed out the rarity of such a clutch World Series dinger:
The playoff heroics can’t hurt the outfielder’s free-agent stock, but he hardly needed the boost. A decade ago, a career .269 hitter who delivers 20 homers during a good year wouldn’t net a massive payday. Now they see a stud who provides Gold Glove defense in left field and an .809 OPS since 2011.
Veterans with keen plate discipline and gap power age better than pure sluggers, so the 31-year-old outfielder will prove a hot commodity if/when he enacts his opt-out clause for 2016 instead of accruing $12.5 million.
Along with mentioning two fitting suitors, Joel Sherman of the New York Post added another surprising candidate hunting for his services.
“Clubs such as the Astros and Cubs are mentioned in what should be a deep field,” Sherman wrote. “However, a few executives cited one team that has surprised me—the Red Sox.”
The Boston Red Sox have a lot of dough tied up to Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who will move from left field to first base next season. Yet they still have Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo lined up in the outfield, and any money lying around should go to upgrading their pitching staff.
Gordon would fit well with the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs, both up-and-coming contenders loaded with young power but in need of depth and outfield defense.
While Kyle Schwarber can rake for the Cubs, he proved a nightmare in left field during the National League Championship Series. Adding Gordon’s superb bat and glove to their young nucleus would bring the Cubs one step closer to snapping a century-long title drought.
Prediction: Gordon signs four-year deal with Chicago Cubs
Ian Desmond
Contrary to Cespedes and Gordon, Ian Desmond did himself no favors this year. Along with snapping a streak of three consecutive 20-20 campaigns, the shortstop hit a dismal .233/.290/.384 while committing 27 errors.
He rebounded from a brutal start, registering a .777 second-half OPS. Yet buyers will beware his diminishing power and rising strikeout rates, both of which have consistently veered in the wrong direction.
According to Heyman, his strong finish will keep teams interested in Desmond, who will almost certainly leave the Washington Nationals with rookie Trea Turner taking his job.
“Many think the Mets will be serious players for free-agent shortstop Ian Desmond,” Heyman wrote. “The Mariners, Padres, White Sox, Twins and others could also be in the Desmond market.”
Wilmer Flores delivers intriguing power at shortstop, but his lack of plate discipline and defensive dependability cloud his future. Same for Daniel Murphy, who will probably parlay his seven postseason homers into a big deal elsewhere. So why in the world would the Mets replace one or both of them with a poor defender who can’t get on base?
The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, desperately targeted power last offseason at the cost of fielding. Although hungry to contend, they don’t have the resources to chase top-tier stars, which leaves them eyeing flawed, high-upside talent like Desmond.
In a dried-out market, look for Desmond to take a short deal in hopes of repairing his value.
Prediction: Desmond signs two-year deal with San Diego Padres
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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