Four weeks after Royals closer Wade Davis struck out Mets shortstop Wilmer Flores and the Kansas City Royals celebrated their World Series victory at Citi Field, the free-agent market had hardly budged. Not a single one of the top 10 players on the market had signed.
Well, that sure changed quickly.
First, starter Jordan Zimmermann signed with the Detroit Tigers. Then, ace left-hander David Price joined the Boston Red Sox. By the end of the day Tuesday, there was this tweet from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:
Price was the best pitcher available. Zack Greinke was right there with him, and Zimmermann was near the top of the next group.
So for four weeks, the market landscape barely changed. Now, in three or four days, it has changed drastically.
And the winter meetings don’t start until next week.
There’s plenty left to do, but already a few things about this baseball winter are clear. Here’s a primer on what’s important from the first month plus a day:
— Remember the idea that the large number of available pitchers could turn this into a “buyer’s market?” Price just signed for a free-agent record $217 million over seven years. The Tigers gave Zimmermann $22 million a year. J.A. Happ, the very definition of an average big league starter, got $36 million for three years from the Toronto Blue Jays.
Johnny Cueto turned down $20 million per year from the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Greinke, as Rosenthal wrote, could get a higher average annual value than even Price.
There’s plenty of money in the game and plenty of owners happy to spend it. Maybe there will be a buyer’s market for outfielders.
Don’t count on it.
— With Price and Zimmermann signed, the pressure increases for any team in need of a starter. What happens if the Los Angeles Dodgers don’t get Greinke? Where do the San Francisco Giants go if they don’t get him? What about the St. Louis Cardinals, who found out in November that right-hander Lance Lynn would need Tommy John surgery, or the Chicago Cubs, who hoped to find someone to fit in with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester? Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen are still out there, and then there’s the trade market.
— Because Dave Dombrowski moved quickly to get the closer—Craig Kimbrel—and front-line starter—Price—the Red Sox so badly needed, he and his staff have the rest of the winter to deal with the rest of the roster. There were conflicting reports over the weekend on whether Dombrowski is determined to trade Hanley Ramirez—WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported Ramirez will be Boston’s first baseman next year, while Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that Dombrowski is looking to deal him—but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if that is in his plans.
In any case, the first months of the Dombrowski administration have provided a big contrast to Ben Cherington’s Sox regime, and also to the way the rival New York Yankees are currently doing business. Dombrowski traded significant prospects to get Kimbrel and committed significant money to sign Price. The Yankees continue to suggest they’ll do neither of those things this winter.
— Kimbrel, Francisco Rodriguez—to the Tigers—and Joaquin Benoit—to the Seattle Mariners—were all traded in November, as teams reacted to the lack of a true closer on the free-agent market. The Cincinnati Reds are still expected to trade Aroldis Chapman, and even more closers could be available in trades—Yankees stopper Andrew Miller, Nationals right-handers Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen and Phillies youngster Ken Giles.
— With new or relatively new general managers running nearly half the teams, trade talk has been lively, by all reports. Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto made four trades in November, and he began December by dealing Mark Trumbo, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. New GMs have less connection to the players they already have and plenty of motivation to make deals that make an impact.
And teams like the Atlanta Braves are in full rebuilding mode, looking everywhere for young talent. The latest report, from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, had the Braves dangling Shelby Miller—acquired last winter for outfielder Jason Heyward—in hopes of getting a big return.
— The Tigers are among the teams with a new GM, but Al Avila has already shown there won’t be a major shift in how the Tigers operate. Forget any idea that their decisions to become trade-deadline sellers and then dump Dombrowski signaled a move to rebuild. Avila has traded for a 33-year-old closer—Rodriguez—and a 28-year-old outfielder—Cameron Maybin—and he just spent $110 million of owner Mike Ilitch’s money to sign Zimmermann.
“I don’t care about the money,” Ilitch told reporters at the Zimmermann press conference (via Katie Strang of ESPN.com). “I want the best players.”
— The Blue Jays technically don’t have a GM yet, but new club president Mark Shapiro is running the show with an obvious plan. The Jays re-signed Marco Estrada and signed Happ, completing a rotation that isn’t overwhelming but may be good enough when combined with their overwhelming offense. There were suggestions from the outside that the Jays would either go all-out to sign Price or trade shortstop Troy Tulowitzki as part of a rebuild, but it appears now that neither of those moves are happening.
— The Yankees have clearly signaled they want to get younger, which left them with no room for 32-year-old outfielder Chris Young, who just signed with the Red Sox. A deal for 26-year-old Aaron Hicks set off a string of Brett Gardner trade rumors, and while Gardner hasn’t been dealt yet, he still could be.
— Despite the usual early-winter stories suggesting teams would find religion and stop paying huge salaries to free agents, those who have signed so far aren’t taking cut-rate deals. Zimmermann, no better than the third-best starter on the market—and maybe no better than fourth- or fifth-best—signed for $22 million a year. Happ got $36 million, and Brett Anderson, who has averaged 77 innings a season the last five years, accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer of $15.8 million.
That’s a lot of money, and there’s plenty more where that came from. After all, 90 percent of the winter work remains to be done.
A month from now, the landscape will have changed quite a bit more.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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