In the second inning of his second spring start Monday against the San Diego Padres, Jake Arrieta put a man on base for fun.
Well, OK, not for fun. He did it—”it” being an intentional walk to the Friars’ Derek Norris—because he wanted to work out of the stretch. Apparently, Arrieta wasn’t confident he’d get a chance if he left it up to the opposition.
That’s about the only thing the Chicago Cubs right-hander and reigning National League Cy Young Award winner isn’t confident in these days.
He’s coming off a career-defining season that saw him fly into the firmament of MLB stars. Now, he’s out to prove it was no fluke.
It seems odd to even talk about a guy who went 22-6 last season with a 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP while twirling a no-hitter, as being underrated. And Arrieta isn’t, really.
But he might still be underestimated—at least a little.
A fifth-round pick by the Baltimore Orioles in 2007, Arrieta didn’t break out until 2014 when he was 28 years old. He posted a 2.53 ERA in 156.2 innings for the Cubs. Prior to that, he logged an ERA under 4.00 just once and never eclipsed 120 innings in a season.
So while no one disputes the glistening value he delivered on the north side in 2015, there are reasons to wonder if he can do it again in 2016.
Bleacher Report’s Rick Weiner tapped Arrieta as one of the more likely players to regress this season, noting that Arrieta’s 2.35 fielding independent pitching score (FIP) and a 2.61 expected fielding independent pitching score (xFIP) significantly outpaced his ERA.
As FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris put it, “When Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young, there was a smattering of ‘good for him, it probably won’t happen again…'”
Another figure the doubters can point to is the .246 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) opponents put up against Arrieta in 2015, per FanGraphs. That’s well below his career tally of .272 and suggests a regression could be in order.
On the other hand, the additions of free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward and second baseman Ben Zobrist should strengthen Chicago’s defense and benefit Arrieta and the rest of the pitching staff.
Speaking of which, while the Cubs didn’t land an ace in the David Price tier, they did nab veteran John Lackey away from the St. Louis Cardinals to round out a core that already includes left-hander Jon Lester.
Arrieta, however, is the unequivocal ace. He has earned the title, and he’s showing no signs of relenting.
He did seem to tire a bit down the stretch last season, surrendering eight runs in 10.2 innings in the National League Division Series and National League Championship Series after tossing a complete-game masterpiece in the win-or-go-home wild-card showdown against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This time, Arrieta insists, will be different.
“I knew after a couple weeks of not throwing, letting the body kind of recover, that it was back to normal,” he said, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. “Now, after dealing with the fatigue of last year, I have obviously bounced back. I am in better shape than ever…”
Count Cubs skipper Joe Maddon among the believers in Arrieta’s fitness ethic. “You talk to everybody who watches him, [and they’ll say] it’s kind of freaky,” Maddon said, per MLB.com’s Phil Rogers. “I don’t think anybody else could do what he does. In terms of his flexibility, the ridiculous strength all over his body, how he takes care of himself, all of that stuff matters.”
It’s easy to dismiss that brand of talk as self-serving hyperbole; everyone’s in the best shape of his life in mid-March.
Arrieta, though, just finished reminding us all what makes him such a special talent, and the early spring returns indicate he hasn’t missed a beat. Why should we doubt that he has more rocket fuel sloshing in the tank?
Will he capture another Cy Young and challenge for another ERA title, which he could win if Zack Greinke toils in the less pitcher-friendly confines of Arizona?
Maybe.
Will he be the best pitcher on a young, hungry Cubs team that seems destined for another deep, possibly curse-busting postseason run?
Count on it, just as if you’re Arrieta counting four balls in a statement-making, springtime intentional walk.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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