This is a matchup of David versus Goliath. The Cincinnati Reds have a good team, but the Phillies have a great team.
Let’s take a look at the series at a glance…
Schedule
Game 1: Wednesday, Oct. 6 at 5:07 PM est. Edinson Volquez vs. Roy Halladay
Game 2: Friday, Oct. 8 at 6:07 PM est. Bronson Arroyo vs. Roy Oswalt
Game 3: Sunday, Oct. 10 at TBD. Cole Hamels vs. Johnny Cueto
*Game 4: Monday, Oct. 11 at TBD.
*Game 5: Wednesday, Oct 13 at TBD.
* Denotes If Necessary
Season Series
Phillies, 5-2.
Prediction
This is a terrible matchup for the Reds. The team that has the pitching disadvantage in a series that will be played in two hitter’s ballparks, usually ends up on the short end of the stick.
Not only are the Reds the underdogs, but they already fired the first surprise of the series when Dusty Baker announced that Edinson Volquez would start Game 1 of the series. I guess the Reds saw enough out of Volquez in his last four starts to give him the nod.
In his last four starts, Volquez had a 1.95 ERA and struck out 31 in 27.2 IP. I personally, would have gone with Bronson Arroyo. While Volquez has been hot lately, he is too much of a wild card in my opinion to put him up against Halladay in Game 1.
If the Reds are going to win this series, it’s going to because of their stars. Jay Bruce (1.611 OPS in last seven days) and Drew Stubbs (1.326 OPS and four steals in last seven days) need to stay hot and Joey Votto needs to be Joey Votto.
Perhaps the biggest X-factor of this series is closer Francisco Cordero. Which Cordero is going to show up for the Reds? The Cordero that had a 2.19 ERA in August or the one that had a 5.11 ERA in September?
If Cordero blows a save in this series, the Reds are toast.
As for the Phillies, they are peaking at the right time and with Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels on top of their game, they are the heavy favorites in this series.
The only way I can see the Phillies losing this series is if their bullpen implodes—and I am talking to you Brad Lidge. Lidge had a 0.73 ERA in August and September, but he also walked nine guys in his last 12.1 innings.
Walk a guy in front of Scott Rolen and he will make you pay.
Unless that happens, I don’t foresee the Reds winning a game in this series. I love the Reds and think they will win the World Series in 2012, but they are a year away from contending for a World Series.
Phillies in three.
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