Kuzul

Two weeks after being defeated by a small rebel group called the San Francisco Giants, the sabermetrics empire struck back on Thursday….

“It is a dark time for Sabermetricians.
Although some of their theories have been destroyed,
Imperial pitchers and hitters have driven the
Rebel forces and beat writers from their mother’s basement
and pursued them across
the galaxy.

“Evading the dreaded WHIP, tERA, FIP and WAR,
a group of freedom
fighters led by Bruce Bochy
has established a new secret
way of winning on the remote summer ice world
of San Francisco.

“The evil lord Darth Felix Hernandez,
obsessed with taking over the galaxy,
has dispatched thousands of remote stats into
the far reaches of space….”

Darth Hernandez and the rest of the sabermetric community dispatched all the remote stats they could think of and got some revenge on Thursday, as the Seattle Mariners’ ace won the American League Cy Young Award.

Hernandez received 21 out of 28 first-place votes to become the second Mariner to win the award. Randy Johnson won the award in 1995. Tampa Bay Rays LHP David Price finished second in the voting, and New York Yankees LHP CC Sabathia finished third.

The big story of this voting was whether or not the voters would look at Hernandez’s 13 wins and dismiss his other statistics. As we know, wins aren’t the best way to judge a pitcher’s success, and now that thinking has trickled down to the voters.

Hernandez led the AL in ERA (2.27), H/9 (7.0), Batting Avg. Against (.212) and WAR for Pitchers (6.0). He also finished second in WHIP (1.06) and second in K’s (232). At the age of 24, King Felix has clearly established himself as one of the dominant pitchers in all of baseball.

Hernandez’s 13 wins represent the lowest total for a Cy Young winner in a non-strike-shortened season. Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young last year with 15 wins.

My preseason American League Cy Young pick: Jon Lester

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I understand the Detroit Tigers have a lot of money to spend this offseason. But there are both smart and moronic ways to spend it.

Spending over $15 million on a 33-year-old middle reliever who didn’t even pitch in 2009 is moronic.

The Tigers signed RHP Joaquin Benoit on Wednesday to a three-year, $16.5 million contract. Benoit can earn another $one million a year if he reaches certain incentives.

This is the type of contract that gets a GM fired.

Benoit was a ham ‘n’ egger up until last year and he missed the entire 2009 season recovering from rotator cuff surgery. Then out of nowhere, Benoit had a spectacular 2010 season for the Tampa Bay Rays.

He tossed to a 1.34 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 11.2 Ks/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 38.9 percent groundball rate in 60.1 IP. Those are some impressive numbers by anyone’s standards.

However, if you look deeper into his numbers, I don’t think there is anyway Benoit can repeat his 2010 season in 2011 and beyond.

First, he had an unsustainable .201 BABIP. The .201 BABIP was the lowest in baseball in 2010. The law of averages say that number will increase in 2011.

Second, I look at Benoit’s Left on Base Percentage in 2010. He led baseball in that category, as well. Benoit stranded a ridiculous 95 percent of his runners on base in 2010.

I don’t think there is any chance he maintains that in 2011.

You take Benoit doing worse in those categories and combine it with him being on the wrong side of 30 when this contract ends, and this signing has disaster written all over it.

The Tigers definitely needed a more reliable right-handed setup man than Joel Zumaya. They also need a right-handed compliment to Phil Coke.

So in that sense, I don’t mind the Benoit signing as a pitcher. I just can’t, for the life of me, believe that the Tigers would give him a $16.5 million contract.

It’s amazing how the numbers of the contract dictate how we, as fans, view the signing.

If the Tigers signed Benoit to a one or two-year deal for $two or three million a year, I don’t think anyone would have blinked, and I think we would be saying positive things about the signing. Instead, Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski hands out a $16.5 million contract to Benoit and he is getting blasted by everyone, including myself.

I also questioned Dombrowski on his re-signing of Brandon Inge. So far, it hasn’t been that great of an offseason for the Tigers.

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I didn’t think I would ever say this, but thank goodness for the Florida Marlins.

I say this because if it wasn’t for them, there would be nothing but awards given out so far this offseason. The Marlins have been baseball’s most active team so far and on Wednesday, they were at it again.

Buck will be the Marlins’ catcher for the next 3 years

The Marlins signed All Star catcher John Buck to a three-year, $18 million contract. Buck hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 HR’s last season with the Toronto Blue Jays.

I understand the catching position has been a black hole for the Marlins for the past couple of seasons, but I have to call nonsense on this one.

I have a hard time believing that a guy who averaged .235/.301/.404 with 12 HR’s in his career prior to 2010 and then all of a sudden breaks out to have a career in 2010 is worth a three-year, $18 million deal. It sure sounds like Buck had an “Adrian Beltre” year to me.

Marlin catchers hit a combined .226/.289/.338 with nine HR’s last season, so the addition of Buck based on last year’s numbers appears to be a serious upgrade. However, it seems to me that the Marlins are paying Buck for what he did in the past and not what he is likely to do in the future.

What Buck is likely to do is have a year that resembles his average prior to his 2010 season. All of a sudden that .235/.301/.404 Buck has put up in years past doesn’t look like much of an upgrade.

With the addition of Buck, here is what the Marlins’ starting lineup could look like come Opening Day:

Chris Coghlan, 3B

Omar Infante, 2B

Hanley Ramirez, SS

Mike Stanton, RF

Gaby Sanchez, 1B

Logan Morrison, LF

John Buck, C

Emilio Bonifacio, CF

The “keys” to that lineup as I would say are Coghlan, Morrison and Buck. If Coghlan can bounce back, Morrison continue to develop into the star he is going to be, and Buck has the year he had in 2010, all of a sudden that Marlins’ lineup looks really good.

But I don’t think Buck has the year he had last year, and at the end of his second year, this will look like a pretty bad deal for the Marlins.

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My Preseason National League Cy Young Pick: Roy Halladay

2010 National League Cy Young winner: Roy Halladay

At the All Star break, Colorado Rockies’ ace Ubaldo Jimenez was the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award. He was 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and even had a no-hitter to his credit.

Halladay, who had a lower ERA than Jimenez (2.19), seemed to be lying in the background. And just like Zenyatta, Halladay made a furious run in the second half to win his second Cy Young.

He received all 32 first-place votes as he joined Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry as the only pitchers to win a Cy Young award in both leagues.

Halladay is really in a league by himself. I always believed Greg Maddux was the best pure pitcher I had ever seen, but what Halladay has been able to do over the last couple years is making me re-think my belief.

My second-guessing comes because Halladay is doing something these days that almost no other pitcher is doing on a consistent basis—throwing complete games. In an era where the complete game is almost nonexistent, Halladay does it without breaking a sweat.

Over the past three years, Halladay has 27 complete games. During that span, no other pitcher has over 20. “Doc” has complete mastery of his craft.

Halladay lead the National League in wins (21), IP (250.2), Complete Games (nine), Shutouts (4), BB/9 (1.1), K’s/BB (7.3), and WAR (6.6). He also finished second in K’s (219) and WHIP (1.04).

Halladay’s two shining moments during the season were his perfect game against the Florida Marlins on May 29th and, of course, his no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds. That was a game for the ages.

It’s very rare that an accomplishment in sports captivates non-sports fans. I manage 12 females during my day job (no, I don’t work at a strip club) and trust me when I tell you, sports conversation is not on the agenda during the day.

However, I did have two of the members of my team come up to me the next day and ask me if I watched the Halladay game last night—it was that kind of sports moment.

Congratulations to Halladay on winning the Cy Young. I would say he is the odds on favorite to win the award next year, as well.

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Fresh off of their sixth playoff appearance in nine seasons, the Minnesota Twins have a lot of decisions to make this offseason.

Do the Twins bring back Carl Pavano, who went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA and tossed seven complete games in 32 starts? Do they bring back Jim Thome, who hit 25 HRs and had a .412 OBP in 340 PA’s? Are they going to tender J.J. Hardy a contract?

Not only do they have to make decisions on these players, but they also have to hope that Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau return to health in 2011.

Morneau is the key: If he is not right, then the Twins aren’t a World Series team in 2011.

All of these health issues and decisions will make for an interesting offseason in Minnesota.

One decision I didn’t mention above and they need to figure out is: What are they going to do at second base? Both Orlando Hudson and Nick Punto are free agents.

Hudson signed a one-year, $5 million contract last offseason with the Twins and gave them a .268/.338/.372 hitting line with six HR’s, five triples and 10 SB’s in 126 games. He also provided stellar D at second base, posting a 9.8 UZR.

I would imagine the Twins would love to bring Hudson back, but Hudson at the age of 33 is most likely looking for one final payday, and the Twins aren’t in a position financially to hand him a long-term deal.

With the lack of quality second basemen on the free agent market, there is a good chance Hudson could sign a two or three-year deal elsewhere.

Punto has always been a “Twins” type player—scrappy, hard-nosed, tough and fundamentally sound. However, there comes a point and time when a team has to move on from a player, and the Twins need to move on from Punto.

He is 33, can’t hit a lick and they can find someone else to do what he does for less then the $4 million Punto made last season.

Let me say that again: PUNTO MADE $4 MILLION LAST SEASON! That stings the nostrils.

So the question becomes for the Twins, what happens if both Hudson and Punto don’t return in 2011? Their backup plans don’t seem that great.

If they want to stay in house, then Alexi Casilla is their guy. Casilla is 26 and has a career hitting line of .249/.306/.327. He is like Punto Part II.

Can a team with World Series aspirations in 2011 really go into the season with Casilla as their starting second baseman?

That’s a tough pill for me to swallow.

The free agent options for the Twins don’t appear much better: Juan Uribe is available, but he might command a multi-year deal after his postseason run.

Other free agents include Felipe Lopez, Adam Kennedy, David Eckstein and Bill Hall. Lopez might be a possibility, as he would come quite cheap after his down 2011 season.

Someone like Dan Uggla is out there for trade, but he doesn’t seem like a Twins-type player and I can’t see the Twins forking over the prospects to get him.

I would say that if the Twins don’t bring back Hudson or Punto, their starting second baseman in 2011 will be Casilla. Ouch.

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Clint Hurdle will be responsible for turning around the most inept franchise in MLB. 

Hurdle was named manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. He signed a three-year contract and replaces John Russell who was fired at the season ended.

Hurdle will attempt to do something the five previous managers before him couldn’t do—a winning season in the last 18 years.

Hurdle’s resume includes a 534-625 record over eight seasons as the manager of the Colorado Rockies. His teams made one playoff appearance in those eight seasons, which included a run to the World Series in 2007.

Hurdle has also been a minor league manager with the New York Mets. He was last year’s hitting coach for the Texas Rangers and previously was the hitting coach for the the Rockies.

Is Hurdle the right guy for the job? I have no clue.

What I do know, is that talent wins in baseball. And the Pirates don’t have a lot of talent on that team right now.

They have a couple of solid building blocks offensively in Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. Other than those four, they don’t have much in terms of solid players that a manager would want to build around, especially in their pitching staff.

Hurdle and the rest of the Pirate organization is going to have to figure out a way to develop some starters. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm haven’t worked out and Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton aren’t the answers either.

If Hurdle is going to have any success in his three years as Pirates’ manager, he is going to need to get some starting pitching.

The Pirates will hold a press conference today to announce the hiring.

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I would think that if a team was going to trade the best offensive player in franchise history, they would be at least somewhat patient with the players they received in return. Apparently, the Florida Marlins don’t believe in patience.

On Friday, the Marlins traded LHP Andrew Miller to the Boston Red Sox and on Saturday, they traded CF Cameron Maybin to the San Diego Padres. The two key pieces in the Miguel Cabrera trade were traded in a span of 24 hours and now the Marlins don’t have anything to show for trading one of the top-two or three offensive players in baseball.

That’s a kick to the solar plexus.

The Marlins traded Maybin to the Padres for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. I think this is one heck of a trade for the Padres and am not surprised that the Marlins let Maybin go.

Here is what I wrote about Maybin when he was recalled from Triple-A back in August.

“The next 30 games or so will be very big for Maybin’s career. If he fails again, he might not get another chance in a Marlins uniform.”

Maybin played in 31 games and had 120 PA’s from August 24–September 28 and in those 120 PA’s, Maybin hit .250/.325/.398 with three HR’s, three doubles and two triples. Maybin still had a hard time making adjustments at the plate as he struck out 35 times during that span.

In 144 career games in a Marlins uniform, Maybin hit .257/.323/.391 with 12 HR’s, 14 SB’s and five triples. Maybin is 23 and barely played one full season for the Marlins, so I guess they felt he was expendable.

I am not surprised they traded him, but I wonder why they would just wave goodbye to him so quickly.

Maybin should get his chance in San Diego. He is an instant upgrade over Tony Gwynn Jr. in centerfield and should bat down in the order, which will alleviate some of the pressure on him.

In return for Maybin, the Marlins get two serviceable relievers in Webb and Mujica.

Webb is the bigger piece of this trade for the Marlins. Webb is a 24-year-old righty, who had a 2.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 6.7 K’s/9 in 59 innings.

While his 6.7 K’s/9 isn’t that impressive, his 63 percent groundball percentage is, ranked fourth amongst all National League relievers in 2010.

I would believe the plan for Webb is to be the prime bridge to closer Leo Nunez.

Mujica is another young pitcher, who didn’t find himself until he got to San Diego. Mujica had a 3.62 ERA, an impressive 0.93 WHIP and 12 K’s/9 in 69.2 innings in 2010.

Mujica throws around 92 mph and has a plus split-fingered fastball. One thing I would be concerned with in regards to Mujica is that he had an almost one-to-one groundball to flyball ratio in 2010. That might work in San Diego, but I am not sure how well that is going to turn out in Florida.

I can see why the Marlins made this trade from a needs perspective. Their bullpen ranked 17th in baseball in ERA and 21st in WHIP. They desperately needed to get some bullpen help this winter.

I just wouldn’t have traded Maybin to do it.

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I sent my buddy Odie a text last night that the Boston Red Sox had traded for LHP Andrew Miller and his response was “Our new Hermida.”

The reference for those of you who are not aware, is to Jeremy Hermida. The Red Sox acquired the once super prospect from the Florida Marlins early last winter in hopes that he could turn his career around.

Yeah, that never happened.

Miller was traded to Boston yesterday

Hermida hit just .203 with a .257 OBP in 52 games with the Red Sox before being released in August. He was later picked up by the Oakland A’s.

If at first you don’t succeed with a super prospect, try and try again.

As I mentioned above, the Red Sox traded for Miller yesterday. In order to acquire the 25-year-old lefty, the Red Sox had to part with 26-year-old lefty Dustin Richardson.

Miller has been nothing short of disappointing since being drafted by the Detroit Tigers with the sixth overall pick in the 2006 Draft. After spending two years in Detroit and posting a 1.75 WHIP in 74.1 Major League innings, he was shipped to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade.

A trade by the way, that is looking worse and worse for the Marlins by the second. The two centerpieces of that trade for the Marlins—Miller and Cameron Maybin—have been complete busts so far.

In three years with the Marlins, Miller posted a 5.89 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, 5.1 BB’s/9 innings, and 7.2 K’s/9 innings in 220 innings. The biggest issue for Miller as you can see, is walks.

The guy has about as much control as Charlie Sheen in a Whore House.

In 294.1 career Major League innings, Miller has walked a ridiculous 174 batters. That’s a walk every five batters. He really regressed in 2010 as he walked over seven batters per nine innings.

Miller is a coach’s worst nightmare.

The issue as I see it with Miller is that he has a tough time keeping his 6’7″ frame under control throughout his delivery. This would explain why his release point is all over the place.

Take a look at his release points from two games this season.

9/29/10 vs. Atlanta

9/19/10 vs. Cincinnati

While his release point between the two starts might not look much different, it is. The release point issue is not unusual for tall pitchers. Randy Johnson went through it and so did Chris Young.

New Boston pitching coach Curt Young is going to have to figure out a way for Miller to gain some consistency with his release point. That is his first order of business.

The second order is to figure out a way to get Miller’s velocity back.

In college and in his first year in the pros, Miller was throwing beebe’s to the tune of 94-95 mph. That is what made Miller such a high draft pick. A lefty who throws in the mid-90′s in college is gold.

Now Miller is throwing a pedestrian 90 mph. His average fastball velocity has decreased every year he has been in the majors. Maybe a full-time move to the bullpen, where Miller can just let it go for an inning or two, will help.

Miller is expected to compete for a bullpen spot with the Red Sox in 2011 and if he makes it, he will have a friend. He and Daniel Bard were teammates at the University of North Carolina.

Bard, like Miller, struggled with control early in his career and has now figured it out. Perhaps Bard can now be a mentor to Miller in Boston.

At 25, it would be hard to imagine that Miller is already toast. The Red Sox have a history of taking chances on low-risk, high-reward players.

Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and Takashi Saito worked. John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and Hermida didn’t. We will have to wait and see if which side Miller falls on.

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The first semi-significant trade of the offseason went off on Wednesday as the Oakland A’s acquired OF David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals for RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks.

There are two sides to every trade, so let’s take a look at the trade from the A’s perspective and the Royals perspective.

DeJesus is finally out of Kansas City

For the Royals, it was either trade DeJesus now or trade him during the season. He is a free agent at the end of the 2011 season and was no way he was A. Going to come back to Kansas City and B. The Royals weren’t going to pay him to come back.

DeJesus has always been a solid player for the Royals, but the reality is that he was a good player on a bad team.

As Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus said on Twitter, DeJesus is the American League equivalent of Nate McLouth on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Great call by Kevin.

Put DeJesus on the Boston Red Sox or Philadelphia Phillies, he bats seventh or eighth. On the Royals, he bats third.

While the Royals will most likely struggle again in 2011, they aren’t building for 2011, they are building for 2012 and 2013. That’s where Mazzaro and Marks come into play.

Mazzaro is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher from New Jersey, who had a 4.72 ERA in 213.2 Major League innings with the A’s. He throws a fastball, slider and change.

If Mazzaro is going to have success at the Major League level, he needs to work on his fastball. His velocity decreased by two mph in 2010 from 2009. His other pitches are plus pitches, so he needs to work on locating his fastball in KC.

Marks is a 22-year-old left-handed pitcher, who has a 5.29 ERA in two career minor league seasons. He averaged 9.5 K’s/9 in 2010.

For the A’s, this trade is a little puzzling to me. I understand that the A’s have a surplus of pitching, but why trade two young pitchers for an average outfielder, who doesn’t have anything different than what their current crop of outfielders have?

The A’s already have Ryan Sweeney, Conor Jackson, Jack Cust, Coco Crisp, and Rajai Davis on the roster. Not only do they have those five, but they also have Michael Taylor waiting in the wings.

The A’s now have seven outfielders for three spots. My guess is that they will non-tender Jackson or Cust or both.

Regardless of who they cut, DeJesus really doesn’t solve the A’s’ offensive problems. The A’s need a guy or two in the middle of their lineup who can hit 35-plus home runs.

They don’t need a guy like DeJesus who is going to hit around .290 with 10 HR’s. The A’s have enough of those guys.

It’s really hard to score runs by singling teams to death.

The A’s have a very good chance to be a sleeper team in 2011. But they really need more offense. DeJesus is a start, but they need a lot more than him to take the next step next year.

I had the A’s as a sleeper team for Carl Crawford, but that is out of the question now.

Back in June, I looked at the pros, cons, and trade market for DeJesus.

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On Tuesday, the American League Gold Glove award winners were announced and there was some controversy with the selection of Derek Jeter. Let’s see who won the Gold Gloves in the National League and if there were any controversial selections.

P: Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

2B: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

3B: Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds

OF: Michael Bourn, Houston Astros

OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies

OF: Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

I think Rawlings did a really good job with the National League. Of course, like with any selection of any award, there are some selections that we could look at if we were to nitpick.

I don’t think anyone would have complained with Washington Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman winning the award instead of Rolen. The same can be said for Arizona Diamondbacks SS Stephen Drew over Tulo. However, personally, I am happy Tulo won the award.

The next awards to be given out will be the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards. They will be announced on the Nov. 15.

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