Kuzul

Today we are going to look at the “Key” player for each American League Central team. The AL Central is very top heavy, and the top three teams—White Sox, Twins and Tigers—figure to battle it out for the division title throughout the year.

In this division, the player who can come back from injury or provide and unexpected punch will be especially important. This division might be decided by one or two games, so one player can make a huge difference.

Chicago White Sox: Jake Peavy. I don’t think anyone expects Peavy to resemble the 200-inning, 9.5 K/9 pitcher he was when he was a member of the San Diego Padres, but if the White Sox can get 140 innings out of him, they will be a better team.

The White Sox have good starting rotation depth even without Peavy. Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd and John Danks are a formidable foursome. But imagine Peavy as their No. 5 starter? Not too many teams have that quality in the five spot. Even a mediocre Peavy was good for two more wins than the average Major League starter last season.

Peavy will most likely make his debut around late-April/early-May and anything he can give the White Sox in 2011 will be a big time plus.

Minnesota Twins: Justin Morneau. Here is what I find fascinating. The Twins have played so well without Morneau in the lineup the past two years, that Morneau has almost become underrated in terms of players. He has missed the past two postseasons, and it’s almost as if he was an afterthought.

This is Justin Morneau, not some Rudy Poo off the street. When healthy, Morneau is one of the best players in the AL. If the Twins are going to once again make the postseason, I think they need Morneau healthy for a full season. A team can go to the well only so many times.

Morneau only played in 81 games last season because of a concussion suffered in July. The Twins will be extra careful with him, but it appears all systems are “go” for Opening Day.

If he can play in 150-plus games in 2011, the Twins will once again be very tough to beat.

Detroit Tigers: Phil Coke. A lot of people are raving about the Tigers’ starting rotation this season. Really? Outside of Justin Verlander, where are the sure things on this staff?

Max Scherzer had a great second half, but can he do it over an entire season? Brad Penny is toast and Rick Porcello needs to become more consistent on a day-in and day-out basis.

That is why Coke is so important to the Tigers’ season. I wrote about Coke making the transition from reliever to starter about a month ago, and I believe he will make a successful one. If the Tigers have a third starter to pair for Verlander and Scherzer, then they will be talking in 2011.

But if Coke can’t make the transition for some reason, then all of a sudden the Tigers’ rotation becomes a hot mess.

Cleveland Indians: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore played in only 106 games in 2009, 33 games in 2010 and had microfracture surgery in June. The Indians are bringing Sizemore along slowly this spring and will have him begin the season on the 15-day DL.

Despite that, he is still only 28 years old, and it’s not like microfracture surgery is a career ender. Just look at Amar’e Stoudemire—he is doing just fine playing a much more grueling sport on the knees.

Do I think Sizemore will ever return to his 2007–2008 form? That might be a stretch. But I do think he will be healthy enough in 2011 to be a produce a .260/.345/.435 slash line with 15-20 HRs and 15 SBs.

I also think it’s important for Sizemore to comeback for the Indians because he could be a free agent (Indians have an $8.5 million option on him) at the end of the 2011 season. If Sizemore proves to be healthy, the Indians might be able to get something for him in July.

Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon. 2011 is going to be a pretty miserable year for the Royals. It’s going to be really bad. But sometimes you have to bottom out to get where you need to be. And that is what will happen to the Royals this season.

With their array of top prospects, the Royals are expected to be ready to compete in the 2013 or 2014 season. Whether or not Alex Gordon is a part of those competitive teams will be dependent on what he does this season.

Gordon was the second pick in the 2005 June Draft and has been nothing short of a bust so far. Now at the age of 27, it’s make or break time for him. If success was based off of what a player did in spring training, then Gordon’s 2011 season would already be a masterpiece.

Gordon is hitting .343 with six HR’s in 70 ABs this spring. If he is able to carry this success over to the regular season, it will give Kansas City some much needed hope for the future.

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New York Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi has named his starting rotation to start the regular season. Here is what it will look like come Thursday…

1. C.C. Sabathia

2. Phil Hughes

3. A.J. Burnett

4. Ivan Nova

5. Freddy Garcia

One through four is no surprise, but the fifth starter is. I am really surprised Garcia got the nod over Bartolo Colon.

Girardi’s logic? “The innings that Freddy logged in, the wins last year, he stayed healthy all of last year,” Girardi said through the NY Daily News.

As we all know, that thinking makes absolutely no sense. I don’t know how you judge a pitcher on A. wins and B. the amount of innings logged last season.

I thought you would make a decision based on who gives you the best chance to win in 2011. But that’s just me.

While neither are anywhere near what they used to be eight years ago, I thought Colon would have been a better choice.

I thought overall he looked better than Garcia did this spring. Colon had 17 K’s and a 2.40 ERA in 15 spring innings, while Garcia struck out 12 and had a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 innings.

Colon will serve as the Yankees’ “Swing man” in 2011. They are hoping he will grow into the role and be their next Ramiro Mendoza or Alfredo Aceves.

I guess my question are; if the Yankees want Colon to be the next Aceves, why not just keep Aceves? And do they want Colon to grow anymore?

Kevin Millwood could factor into things as the season progresses as well. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees yesterday.

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The next division up in our key player series is the National League West, home of the World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The NL West should be a battle all year, so let’s take a look at some of the players who may decide the division.

Colorado Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa. When I look at the Rockies’ starting rotation, outside of Ubaldo Jimenez, I see a lot of question marks. Perhaps the biggest question mark, or X-factor if you would, is De La Rosa.

The Rockies re-signed De La Rosa to a two-year, $21.5 million contract with a player option for a third year and a club option for a fourth year. If De La Rosa exercises the player option, the deal could be worth $32 million.

Now he has to prove he was worth that contract.

If the Rockies want to make the playoffs in 2011, I believe they are going to need De La Rosa to regain his 2009 form when he started 32 games, averaged 9.4 K/9, and hurled 185 innings.

San Francisco Giants: Pablo Sandoval. 2010 was a complete disaster for the “Kung-Fu Panda.” He came into the season out of shape and by the end of the season he was a complete non-factor in the Giants’ World Series run.

Sandoval came into camp in great shape and is having a decent spring with the stick. Going into Wednesday’s action, Sandoval was hitting .288/.317/.542 with three HRs and even a triple in 59 ABs.

The Giants will have a very good team going into 2011 because of their pitching staff. But if the Giants can get Sandoval going, along with Buster Posey and then later Brandon Belt, then they might become an elite team.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp. Kemp looked like he was headed for super stardom in 2009 when he hit .297/.352/.490 with 26 HRs, 34 SBs and compiled a 5.0 WAR. Then in 2010, supposedly Kemp was partying like a rock star and had a miserable season.

Kemp slumped to a .249 average, his K Percentage increased from 22.9 percent to 28.2, he stole only 19 bases and produced a 0.4 WAR. His 0.4 WAR was second-worst only to Melky Cabrera amongst all major league center fielders.

I like the Dodgers’ pitching staff top to bottom, but their offense is very suspect to me. Outside of Andre Ethier, they don’t have any dynamic players.

Kemp can be that other dynamic player, but he is going to have to return to his 2009 form in order for the Dodgers to compete in the NL West.

San Diego Padres: Cameron Maybin. Doesn’t it seem like Maybin has been around forever? It seems like he is 28 or 29, but he is only 23 years old. I guess when you are on your third team in five seasons, you will get that perception.

Cameron wore out his welcome in Florida because he just never figured out major league pitching. In parts of three seasons with the Marlins, Cameron hit .257/.323/.391 with 12 HRs and 14 SBs in 144 games. He also struck out about 28 percent of the time.

Now Cameron is getting a fresh start in San Diego, and without Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup on a daily basis, it’s all hands on deck for the Padres’ offense. Cameron has the most potential of anyone in the Padres’ lineup heading into 2011.

He still can be an impact player in the major leagues, and if he can realize his potential in San Diego, the Padres’ offense will be that much better in 2011.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton. Well, there is good news and bad news concerning Upton. The good news is that all signs point to Upton being healthy heading into spring training. A lot of Upton’s down season could be attributed to a shoulder injury that nagged him all season.

The other good news is that the Diamondbacks will not use a humidor in 2011. That means the balls should continue to fly out of Chase Field. I fully expect Upton to get back to the 25-30 HR mark in 2011 and have an OPS nearing the .900 mark.

Now the bad news.

The Diamondbacks’ offense will take a step back in 2011. Gone are Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche and in are Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady. Even if the Diamondbacks retained Reynolds and LaRoche, they still would be pretty bad in 2011, but it’s important for Upton to bounce back in 2011.

Upton is a super star and will be key in Arizona’s rebuilding process.

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One down and one to go for the New York Mets.

The Mets did the inevitable on Friday and cut second baseman Luis Castillo. New York will eat the remaining $6 million on Castillo’s contract.

Now if the Mets can just get rid of Oliver Perez, they will be really cooking.

Castillo signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Mets in 2007 and why then GM Omar Minaya gave him that many years was beyond anyone. It was never how much Castillo was making per season that drove Met fans crazy—it was the length of his contract.

Four years for Castillo was waaaaaaaaaaay too much. Especially since no other team at the time was willing to give more than a one-year deal. Nonsense.

During his time with the Mets, Castillo raised the ire of Mets fans with his lackluster play and propensity to get injured. In his three full seasons with New York, Castillo appeared in only 315 out of a possible 486 games and hit only .270 with four HRs and 45 steals.

Now that the Mets have moved on from the Castillo era in New York, let’s look at where both parties go from here.

For the Mets, it appears that Luis Hernandez, and his career .286 OBP, is the leading candidate to replace Castillo. Hernandez is 26 and has played parts of fours seasons with the Mets, Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.

He is your classic good-glove/no-hit middle infielder. Hernandez is hitting .294 with a .368 OBP this spring however.

Brad Emaus is also a candidate for the second base job as well. Emaus hit .298 with 10 HRs and a .398 OBP with Triple-A Las Vegas (Toronto Blue Jays minor league affiliate). He was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft from the Blue Jays.

He is hitting just .231 with zero HRs in 45 ABs this spring.

Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner are also two guys vying for the job as well, but are seen as outsiders. It would shock me if anyone but Hernandez was the Mets’ Opening Day starting second baseman.

As for Castillo, believe it or not, he does have some options.

I think the Philadelphia Phillies are a real possibility. I am a believer that Chase Utley won’t be playing anytime soon and the Phillies lack infield depth. Castillo would be a good fit for them.

Even though they said they had little interest, I think the Florida Marlins could still be a possibility as well. Matt Dominguez is hitting .219 this spring and if they don’t feel he is ready to be their starting third baseman in 2011, the Marlins could move Omar Infante over to third and slot in Castillo into second.

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Baltimore Orioles could be potential destinations for Castillo as well.

And one more thought on this. Wouldn’t it be in classic Mets fashion that wherever Castillo goes, he is going to blossom? It’s guaranteed to happen.

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One of the more intriguing position battles this spring is the battle for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ first-base job. There are three candidates to win the position—Brandon Allen, Juan Miranda and Russell Branyan.

Let’s see how they are doing so far this spring and who appears the favorite to win the starting job in the desert.*

Miranda: .250/.417/.536 with two HRs and two doubles in 28 ABs.

Allen: .333/.344/.467 with no HRs and four doubles in 30 ABs.

Branyan: .464/.500/.857 with three HRs and two doubles in 28 ABs.

Based on these numbers so far, it would appear that Branyan is the front runner for the job. However, according to a post by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, the Diamondbacks view Branyan as more of a left-handed power hitter off the bench against right-handed pitching.

This would be a good role for Branyan considering that he had an .874 OPS against righties in 2010 and can’t play a lick of defense. Pinch-hitting suites Branyan well.

Thus, the true front runner for the job seems to be Miranda, the former New York Yankee prospect, who has never done much at the major-league level. However, his opportunities have been limited. In three years, he has only had 94 plate appearances. That’s what happens when you have Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira in front of you.

Miranda, who is also a better defensive player than both Branyan and Allen, is a career .281/.367/.478 hitter with 62 HRs in four minor-league seasons.

That leaves Allen as the apparent odd man out. It’s pretty clear that the Diamondbacks don’t have much faith in Allen at this stage of his career.

Since the Diamondbacks acquired Allen from the Chicago White Sox in 2009, they have gone out and also acquired Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady, Miranda and Branyan—all of whom have played or can play first.

Most likely Allen will be ticketed for Triple-A. However, if Miranda stumbles out of the gate, look for the Diamondbacks to call him back up quickly and give him the chance at the major-league level he deserves.

*Stats were as of March 12.

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I am really fascinated by this Oliver Perez situation.

According to multiple sources, if New York Mets’ LHP Oliver Perez didn’t show improvement from his first spring training outing on Thursday, the Mets were ready to eat the remaining $12 million on his contract and cut him.

Perez, in his first outing of the spring against the Atlanta Braves, walked three batters and gave up four runs in just two innings of work.

What I find fascinating about the situation is the Mets would need to see anything more from Perez to cut him; as if the last two years of garbage hasn’t been enough indication that this turkey is totally brain dead as one Gordon Gecko once said.

Of course, in classic Mets fashion, Perez wasn’t awful on Thursday. He allowed two hits, no walks and no runs in two innings of work against the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite his marginal success on Thursday, for the second outing in a row, Perez’s velocity on his fastball was in the low-80′s.

To put Perez’s low-80′s fastball in perspective, the Major League average fastball last season for starting pitchers was 90.9 mph. Ironically and, perhaps even more sadly for Perez, follow Met and knuckleball pitcher R.A. Dickey had the lowest average fastball at 83.9 mph.

It’s probably not a good sign when a knuckleball pitcher throws harder than you do. Right now, there are about 500 kids in high school that even throw harder than Perez.

Based on this performance, the Mets will most likely give Perez another shot. I personally think the Mets should cut him and cut their losses.

He is the poster boy (slighted edging out Luis Castillo) for the futility and circus that has surrounded the Mets the past couple of years. The faster they move on from Perez, the faster the Mets can move on from their past.

Perez’s next appearance will likely be March 8, when the Mets have split-squad games against the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals.

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In a little bit of a surprising move, New York Mets OF Carlos Beltran went to manager Terry Collins and suggested he be moved from center field to right field. Beltran sought advice from agent Scott Boras, his wife, his father and Carlos Delgado, and then approached Terry Collins on Monday morning and asked for a change.

The move to right will put less pressure on Beltran’s surgically repaired knees, but it’s also the right move as well. In his prime, Beltran was one of the best two-way players in the game. He could do it with the bat and do it just as well with the glove.

But now, it appears Beltran is a shell of his former self. At the age of 33, it appears father time has caught up with him. Over the past two years, Beltran has a -14.6 UZR/150, which ranks towards the bottom of all center fielders during that time frame.

This move by Beltran allows Angel Pagan to move back to center, and considering he is head and shoulders above Beltran defensively, this decision works out pretty well for the Mets. And let me say this about Pagan: There is not a more underrated player in the game than Angel Pagan.

Not only is he one of the better defensive center fielders in the game (14.7 UZR/150), but how many people know he hit .290/.340/.425 with 11 HRs, seven triples, 31 doubles and 37 SB in 151 games? Those are All-Star numbers any way you want to slice it.

With one little decision and one selfless move, the Mets just got a whole lot better defensively in the outfield in 2011.

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Most of the questions the New York Yankees have this spring training surround their starting rotation. Will A.J. Burnett show signs of bouncing back, and who will win the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation?

One of the pitchers trying to win one of the spots in the Yankees’ rotation is Bartolo Colon. Colon, who didn’t pitch in a single game in 2010, got the first shot to impress Joe Girardi and the rest of the Yankees’ coaching staff on Saturday.

The Yankees played their first preseason game against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, and Colon got the start. Let me rephrase that: The Yankee starters were playing the Phillies’ ham n’ egger squad. The only regulars to make the trip for the Phillies were Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Domonic Brown.

It was determined before the game that Colon would go two innings or throw 35 pitches. Remarkably, he did both.

Colon pitched two innings and gave up two hits, one walk and one run and didn’t strike out a batter. He threw 36 pitches, and 23 of them were for strikes. The damage could have been worse, but Howard just missed a HR off a mediocre fastball by two feet in the first.

While I understand it was just the first spring training game and it was Colon’s first appearance, every appearance counts for him, and I came away unimpressed with Colon’s performance.

Colon was consistently throwing 88-89 mph, only induced a couple of swings and misses and failed to show major league-quality secondary pitches. He did let one go at 93 mph to Ross Gload in the first but never hit that mark again in his two innings of work.

A pitcher can get away with throwing 88-89, but he needs those secondary pitches to be successful. Colon did throw a couple of cutters and changeups, but neither of those pitches had any bite to them. Developing a successful secondary pitch might be difficult for Colon because even in his prime Colon was throwing 80 percent fastballs.

Colon is competing with Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre and Freddy Garcia for the final spots in the Yankees rotation. If he plans to beat any of those guys out, he is going to have to show more in his future starts than he did on Saturday.

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One of the bigger questions for the Chicago White Sox heading into spring training was answered rather quickly.

The question was whether or not LHP Chris Sale would start the season in the White Sox rotation or come out of the bullpen. Well, that question was answered rather quickly when Chuck Garfien reported via Twitter that GM Ken Williams said Sale will start the season in the White Sox bullpen.

The role that Sale will serve in the bullpen is not yet figured out. Manager Ozzie Guillen said last week (also reported by Garfien) that he prefers Matt Thornton to close, but hasn’t ultimately made that decision yet. Either way, the White Sox should have one of the more dominant backends of the bullpen in 2011.

Sale had a 1.93 ERA and 32/10 K/BB ratio over 23.1 innings out of the bullpen for the Sox in 2010.

This move also tells me that the White Sox brass is pretty confident that Jake Peavy will be ready to roll by Opening Day. If Peavy wasn’t ready to go, Sale was the guy most likely to take his spot in the rotation.

From a fantasy perspective, keep an eye on this Sale/Thornton situation throughout spring training. Whomever wins the closer job has a chance to be a top-10 closer in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Now that spring training has begun, it’s time to look back at this offseason. And what an offseason it was. Spending was up and it was like 1999 all over again.

However, some teams spent wisely and made some good acquisitions, while other teams didn’t spend their money so wisely. As the knight said in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, “They chose poorly.”

We’ll look at the teams that chose poorly later, but for now, we will look at the five winners from this offseason.

 1. Boston Red Sox

 To get Adrian Gonzalez seemed like a stretch. To sign Carl Crawford seemed like a reach. To get them both seemed impossible. Yet, GM Theo Epstein managed to do both within a week.

The Red Sox acquired Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres for four prospects and then signed Crawford to a seven-year, $142 million contract, giving Boston two superstars at the top of their order. Not only are Gonzalez and Crawford great hitters, but they are great defenders as well and will improve Boston’s overall defense.

The Red Sox gave up some top prospects for Gonzalez, but they didn’t gut their system. They still had three prospects land in Keith Law’s top-100 for 2011.

The Red Sox also brought in Jarrod Saltalamacchia to catch and shored up their bullpen with the additions of Dan Wheeler, Bobby Jenks and the re-signing of Hideki Okajima.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies already had a top starting rotation with messers Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. Then they go out this offseason and sign Cliff Lee to give them a rotation baseball hasn’t seen in years.

Lee was the biggest free-agent prize this offseason and he signed with the Phillies for five years and $120 million with an option for 2016. The fact that Hamels is now their No. 4 starter is a joke.

The Phillies did lose Jayson Werth to the Washington Nationals, but should be able to adequately replace him with Domonic Brown.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Brewer starters finished 15th in ERA, 15th in WHIP, and 14th in innings pitched amongst National League teams in 2010. So what did GM Doug Melvin do to fix this issue? He went out and acquired a legit No.2 starter in Shaun Marcum and then hit the mother load when he acquired the 2009 American League Cy Young award winner in Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals.

In two fell swoops, the Brewers went from having one of the worst rotations in the NL to, on paper at least, having one of the best. Marcum, Greinke, and Yovani Gallardo as a top three is pretty legit.

The Brewers also brought in Takashi Saito to help out with the bullpen and signed Rickie Weeks to an extension.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

I don’t care what other moves a GM makes during the course of an offseason, anytime he unloads the worst contract in baseball, he is a winner. When GM Alex Anthopolous unloaded Vernon Wells and the $86 million remaining on his contract, the Blue Jays became a big winner this winter. This one move alone will allow the Blue Jays to aggressively pursue other free agents or put more money into their farm system.

I wasn’t a big fan of the Jose Bautista extension because I thought there is a big risk involved, but I liked their other acquisitions of Rajai Davis, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco and Scott Podsednik. I also thought they did well in acquiring Brett Lawrie, who they will move over from second to third, in the Marcum trade.

5. Oakland A’s

The A’s finished 11th in the American League in runs scored, 13th in HRs, and tied for 10th in OPS. Offense was a top priority for Billy Beane’s ballclub.

While Beane didn’t land Adrian Beltre like he hoped, he did go out and get Josh Willingham from the Nationals, David DeJesus from the Royals and signed Hideki Matsui away from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Beane also spent money in the bullpen as he brought in Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes to compliment Andrew Bailey and Brad Ziegler.

Later, we’ll take a look at the five losers from this offseason.

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