Kuzul

Back in March of this year, Oakland A’s speedster Rajai Davis made a pretty bold prediction. He believed he could steal 75 to 80 bases in 2010.

That was a pretty bold prediction considering only seven players (Jose Reyes, Kenny Lofton, Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, Marquis Grissom, Vince Coleman, and Ron LeFlore) have accomplished that feat in the last 30 years. Now that we are about two-thirds through the season, I wanted to see how Davis was doing in his prediction.

Going into last night’s action, Davis had swiped 34 bases, which puts him third in the American League. At his current pace, Davis would finish the season with 52 stolen bases. It’s good, but nowhere near matching the prediction Davis made in March.

I thought Davis would steal between 50 and 60 bases and here was my reason why back in March.

“Last year, Davis hit .305 with a .360 OBP. That OBP allowed him to steal 41 bases. History shows Davis won’t have that average or OBP again.

From 2006-2008, Davis averaged a .256 average with a .314 OBP. Those numbers won’t be good enough to steal 80 bases. It’s just not going to happen.

Let’s say Davis falls somewhere between his 2006-2008 seasons and his 2009 season. That would be a .275 average and a .330 OBP. Even with 500-600 AB’s, those numbers wouldn’t be good enough to steal 75-80 bases.

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League in stolen bases in 2009 with 70 and he hit .301 and had an OBP of .355. Davis would have to pretty much repeat his 2009 season in order to steal more bases than Ellsbury.”

Just as I thought, Davis isn’t getting on base nearly enough times to steal 75 to 80 bases. He came into last night’s game with a .319 OBP. It’s very, very hard to steal 75-plus bases getting on base only 31 percent of the time.

As a matter of fact, if you take the OBP of the seven players I mentioned above in the seasons that they stole 75-plus bases, their average OBP comes out to .352.

Only Grissom (.317) was able to swipe 75-plus bases with an OBP below .320 in the years he accomplished the feat.

So next year, instead of predicting he will steal 80 bases, Davis should predict he will get on base 35 percent of the time. It will be a lot easier for him to steal those bases if he accomplishes that feat.

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My first introduction to Mike Minor was during the 2009 Draft. When he was selected by the Atlanta Braves, Harold Reynolds said you can throw the stats out the window with Minor.

I really didn’t get what Reynolds meant at the time because I rarely understand the things that come out of Reynolds’s mouth. However, after watching Minor’s debut last night against the Houston Astros, I kind of see what Reynolds was talking about.

Minor made his MLB debut last night

Despite his short-arm motion, which I am not a fan of, I really liked what I saw out of Minor in his major league debut. He was in the low-to-mid 90′s all night and featured an impressive changeup that was around 81-83 for most of the night. That nine-to-10 mph difference on his fastball and changeup is what a pitcher is looking for.

I was also really impressed with Minor’s poise on the mound. After Michael Bourn led off the game with a single and then stole second, Minor didn’t let Bourn play with his head on second base.

How many times do we see a young pitcher let a fast runner on second base distract him and the game slows down to a snails pace? Minor actually sped the game up with Bourn on second.

On the first two pitches to Jeff Keppinger (who was batting third by the way…ouch), Minor didn’t even bother to look at Bourn on second. He got the ball and fired it home. On the third pitch, Minor looked back at Bourn twice, so Bourn couldn’t time Minor to the plate. That just shows me that Minor has a pretty good idea of what he wants to do out there.

The final line for Minor: 6 IP 5 H 3 ER 1 BB 5 K

I will say that Minor’s worst moment of the night came in his first major league AB. He singled to right, but Hunter Pence threw him out at first and robbed not only of his first major league hit, but his first RBI as well.

Here are some other facts about Mike Minor…

Age: 22

Throws: Left

Bats: Right

College: Vanderbilt University

Drafted: Seventh overall pick in the first round of the 2009 Draft

Minor League Stats:

2009 Single A: 0.64 ERA with 17 K’s, and a 0.71 WHIP in 14 IP.

2010 Double A & Triple A: 3.44 ERA with 146 K’s, and a 1.56 WHIP in 120.1 IP

Keith Law Ranking and Analysis:

Ranking: N/A

Analysis: N/A

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The Jim Edmonds tour around the National League Central continues with a stop in Cincinnati. Over the last four years, Edmonds has played for the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and now the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds traded for the 40-year-old outfielder yesterday in exchange for fellow outfielder Chris Dickerson.

After missing the entire 2009 season, Edmonds was extremely solid in a Milwaukee Brewers’ uniform. He was hitting .286 with eight HR’s and a .350 OBP. He was also playing a spectacular outfield posting a total 6.4 UZR in right and center for the Brew Crew.

Edmonds will serve as a defensive replacement for Jonny Gomes and perhaps Jay Bruce in the late innings, as well as perhaps platooning with Gomes against right-handed pitching. Edmonds was hitting .293 versus right-handed pitching with the Brewers.

In exchange for Edmonds, the Brewers will receive Dickerson, who is an interesting player. Dickerson hit .275 with a solid .370 OBP in 97 games for the Reds last season. He also stole 11 bases in 14 attempts.

Dickerson has been limited to only 20 games in 2010 however because of a fractured right hand. Dickerson has been on the comeback trail and is batting .442 in Triple-A.

Dickerson will most likely serve as a fourth outfielder for the Brewers and he could find himself in a platoon with center fielder Carlos Gomez in 2011.

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The title of this article could have been “With the Mariners Ship Sinking,” but the Seattle’s ship sunk about five months ago after they started the season 2-6 and looked hideous in doing so.

Not only did the Mariners lose a lot during the first week of the season, but they have lost a lot all year and now, their losing has cost their manager his job.

The Mariners fired manager Don Wakamatsu on Monday as well as pitching coach Rick Adair and bench coach Ty Van Burkleo.

Wakamatsu went 127-147 since getting Seattle’s job in November 2008. Daren Brown, the Mariners’ Triple-A manager, will take over for Wakamatsu on an interim basis.

There were two main reasons for Wakamatsu’s firing.

1. He lost the clubhouse.

When a manager doesn’t make it through the next year after going 85-77 the previous season, that tells me the players were just tired of his act.

Ken Griffey Jr. retired in the middle of the season because he was unhappy and then Wakamatsu got into it with Chone Figgins back in June.

In the middle of the fifth inning in a game against the Boston Red Sox, Wakamatsu pulled Figgins after he perceived a lack of hustle from his second baseman on a play in the top half of the inning, when a relay throw from left fielder Michael Saunders rolled through the infield.

That allowed Boston’s Mike Cameron to advance to third after his double, but he did not score.

Wakamatsu and Figgins exchanged words in the dugout, and a short skirmish broke out involving several members of the team.

TV replays showed Jose Lopez—with Figgins behind him—being restrained by Jack Wilson and Ryan Rowland-Smith while Russell Branyan was held back by multiple teammates.

The whole fracas was a real black eye for the entire Mariners’ organization.

A baseball manager is more of a relationship manager rather than a football or basketball coach, which is more about implementing a system and then following through on the X’s and O’s of the sport.

Once a baseball manager loses his relationships with his team, then he has nothing left.

2. He was a victim of unrealistic expectations.

The Mariners were very active in the offseason adding Cliff Lee, Milton Bradley, and Chone Figgins. With those additions, many thought the Mariners would improve on their 85 wins from last year.

However, this team was doomed from the beginning.

Seattle went into the season with two starting pitchers, a mediocre bullpen, and an Opening Day lineup that had Casey Kotchman batting third, Griffey Jr. batting fifth, and Rob Johnson and Jack Wilson batting eighth and ninth.

I don’t care how many runs the Mariners thought they were going to prevent, there was no way this team was going to be as good as they were last season. Those unrealistic expectations were the other reason Wakamatsu got the ax in Seattle.

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As Ric Flair used to say “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, that is just not going to happen. Woooooooo!!!”

There was no way the Tampa Bay Rays could be fooled three times in one season, could they? First it was Dallas Braden. Then it was Edwin Jackson.

Then on Sunday, Toronto Blue Jays righty Brandon Morrow was attempting to become the third pitcher to pitch a no-hitter against the Rays this season. With two outs and a runner on first in the bottom of the ninth, Morrow was one out away with the Rays’ Evan Longoria coming to the plate.

Morrow was nearly unhittable on Sunday

On a 1-1 count, Longoria hit a little dribbler between first and second for a clean single to break up the no-hitter. There was nothing second baseman Aaron Hill could do on the play. He was shaded up the middle as he should have been. 28.7 percent of Longoria’s AB’s have ended with a ball in play to the left side of the field.

Not only did Longoria break up the no-hitter, but now the Rays had 1st and 3rd with two outs and the score was only 1-0 Blue Jays. Morrow would not be deterred as he whiffed Dan Johnson to send the game.

The story of this game wasn’t the fact that the Rays were almost no-hit for the third time this season, it was Morrow. We saw the best of Morrow on Sunday afternoon.

The final line for Morrow: 9 IP 1 H 0 R 2 BB 17 K’s 137 pitches.

Morrow was dominant from the very beginning as he struck out the side in the first and he never stopped from there. He struck out 17 Rays and the big reason was his slider.

Morrow’s slider was off the charts good on Sunday.

He had movement on his slider like Mike Scott used to have on his splitter in 1986. I know some people reading this might not understand the Scott of 86′ reference, but trust me, his splitter that year was an unhittable pitch.

Morrow threw his splitter 38 times on Sunday and 29 of those sliders were good for strikes. Out of those 29 sliders, Rays’ batters swung and missed 26 percent of the time. That is a lot and shows how dominant Morrow’s slider was on Sunday.

Here is Morrow’s speed x vertical movement chart from Sunday courtesy of PitchFx:

The yellow plots are sliders and you can see the downward movement on those pitches. They were really unhittable.

Of course, a lot of people will talk about Morrow’s high pitch count in this game. Morrow threw 137 pitches over the course of nine innings.

If Morrow threw 137 pitches over six or seven innings, then I could see an issue. But 15.2 pitches an inning over nine innings is no great shakes.

The Blue Jays acquired Morrow from the Seattle Mariners in the off-season for Brandon League. That trade is looking worse and worse for the Mariners by the day.

On Sunday, we saw the best of Morrow.

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In my opinion, the Boston Red Sox suffered the death blow to their season when they learned on Friday that first baseman Kevin Youkilis would be out for the season. It’s going to be really hard to lose someone of Youkilis’ caliber and still try to make up five or six games on the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the competitive American League East.

Regardless of whether or not I think they are done, the Red Sox don’t believe they are done. They are still trying to improve their team to earn a playoff spot. On Saturday, the Red Sox signed first baseman Carlos Delgado to a minor-league contract to see if he can help out at first. The deal includes a stipulation that if Delgado isn’t on the major league roster by Sept. 1, then he can opt out of his contract and become a free agent.

Delgado, 38, last played in the major leagues in May of 2009 as a member of the New York Mets. He was hitting an impressive .298 with four home runs in 26 games before going down with a hip injury.

That .298 was more than a year and a half ago, and I really have my doubts as to how much Delgado can help the Red Sox both offensively and, most importantly, defensively. That is the thing people don’t realize about the loss of Youkilis. Losing him for his defensive abilities might hurt the Red Sox more than losing him for his offensive prowess.

Delgado was a poor defensive first baseman before his hip injury. I could only imagine his limited range now at first. Delgado should be relegated to designated htiter duties, but he won’t be taking the place of David Ortiz anytime soon.

Dustin Pedroia’s injury means Bill Hall and Jed Lowrie getting the majority of the starts at second base (both have limited range). If the Red Sox have Delgado at first, a lot of balls would be getting through the right side of that infield that normally wouldn’t if Pedroia or Youkilis were around. I don’t think a Hall-and-Delgado right side of the infield is what general manager Theo Epstein had in mind when he building the Red Sox around defense in the off-season.

Maybe Delgado has something left in the tank, but I doubt it. I would be very surprised if Delgado was able to contribute to the Red Sox in 2010.

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Yesterday I wrote that it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Philadelphia Phillies go out and acquire a first baseman if they thought Ryan Howard would be out longer than 15 days. I thought they would go out and get a player like Mike Lowell, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman.

Well, the Phillies didn’t acquire any of those guys or Kotchman, but they acquired Kotchman’s teammate. The Phillies acquired 1B/DH Mike Sweeney from the Seattle Mariners yesterday for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Sweeney had a .267/.327/.425 hitting line with the Mariners with seven HR’s. Sweeney is far removed from his offensive glory days with the Kansas City Royals, but should be a decent option every now and then for Charlie Manuel’s club over the next 15 days.

Whether you think Sweeney is going to help the Phillies or not, what this move represents is the Phillies doing whatever it takes to win. If they need something, they go out and get it.

Unlike the New York Mets, if the Phillies have a need, they do whatever it takes to fill it.

They have moved into the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox category of World Series or bust every year.

NOTE: The reason Sweeney could be traded was because he passed through waivers.

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What’s that saying? “What’s one man’s garbage is another man’s treasure?” However it goes, that saying doesn’t hold more true than with the case of Pat Burrell.

Burrell was complete garbage in Tampa. He signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Rays in the winter of 2009 and he couldn’t have been more of a bust.

In a season and a third in a Rays uniform, Burrell hit just .218 with 16 home runs and a .672 OPS. He was supposed to be the Rays’ big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup and it just never worked.

Burrell looked old and worn out. It seemed like he never adjusted to be a full-time DH and it looked like his career was over.

Burrell was released by the Rays in May and the San Francisco Giants took a flier on him. Now it looks like one of the best low-risk, high-reward fliers of the season.

No longer a DH and playing the outfield, Burrell has been rejuvenated in San Francisco. Burrell hit his seventh home run last night in the Giants’ 10-0 win over the Colorado Rockies and the former Miami Hurricane is now hitting .282 with a .372 OBP and a .500 slugging in 145 at-bats.

He is right now for the Giants what he was supposed to be in Tampa. It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do for a guy.

So what is the reason for Burrell’s resurgence in San Francisco? I think it’s the simple answer of Burrell’s playing the field again. And I don’t mean picking up chicks in Miami.

Look at Burrell’s splits as a DH and a left fielder. It’s amazing.

DH: .209/.305/.365 with three home runs in 91 at-bats.

LF: .297/.388/.514 with six home runs in 111 at-bats.

I always thought it was hogwash when an announcer or team official would show concern over a player adjusting to the DH position. I always wondered what the big deal was? But apparently it is.

If you watch Burrell play now in San Francisco, he looks fresher and quicker at the plate and the stats match up with the eye test. He is making more contact in the strike zone (Z-Contact Percentage has improved from 79 percent to 87 percent) and he has improved drastically fastballs (wFB has improved from -4.7 to 2.3).

The Giants are leading the NL Wild Card race and Burrell’s resurgence is a big reason why.

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It seems now that the Steroid Era is almost officially behind us the game of baseball has turned into a game of attrition. Much like football and hockey, only the healthy will survive.

Two of the teams that have been hit the most by injuries—the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies—got hit even harder on Monday when both teams lost their All-Star first basemen.

“Youk” might be out for the season

First the Red Sox lost Kevin Youkilis to a thumb injury. Boston placed the 31-year-old on the 15-day DL with a torn right thumb muscle.

Youkilis was hitting .307 with 19 HR’s, and a .975 slugging percentage in 102 games for the Red Sox. With the Red Sox 6.5 games behind the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, losing Youkilis might be too much for them to overcome.

To replace Youkilis, look for the Red Sox to use Victor Martinez at first and put Kevin Cash behind the plate. On the days that Martinez is catching, look for the Red Sox to use Mike Lowell at first. Yes, Mike Lowell is still alive.

The Phillies suffered an equally similar blow when they had to place Ryan Howard on the 15-day DL with a sprained left ankle. When Howard first got hurt, I thought he had hurt his knee, but apparently it was the ankle.

Howard is having another stellar season putting up a .292/.356/.528 hitting line with 23 HR’s. The Phillies are already without Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, so losing Howard is adding insult to injury.

The Phillies were three games behind Atlanta in the NL East and 3.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the Wild Card standings going into last night, iff they can somehow stay within striking distance through the month of August, they still could possibly steal a playoff spot in September.

I will never count out the Phillies until they are officially eliminated. They are too good to be an afterthought.

I also wouldn’t put it past the Phillies to go out an acquire a first baseman if they think Howard will be out longer than 15 days. Right now, Howard’s replacement seem to be Ross Gload or Cody Ransom. That’s terrible.

Players who figure to be waiver candidates that might make sense for the Phillies would be guys like Casey Kotchman, Adam LaRoche, or the above mentioned Mike Lowell.

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Corey Hart is having a huge season for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010 and the Brewers have rewarded Hart with a contract extension.

The Brewers signed Hart yesterday to a three-year extension worth $26.5 million. The deal will cover Hart’s final year of arbitration and his first two years of free agency eligibility.

Hart has put up an impressive .288/.346/.565 hitting line with 23 HRs so far this season. The Brewers now have their left fielder and right fielder locked up for the foreseeable future.

I really don’t have an issue with this contract. If you believe Hart’s corrected vision and batting stance are the reasons for his turnaround, then he should be worth around $8 million a season for the next three years. Even if Hart finishes his next three seasons at what he has produced so far this season, then he will outperform the extension.

Here is what some people are forgetting about this deal and the Brewers. The Brewers have to overpay sometimes to get people to either come to or stay in Milwaukee.

Have you ever been to Milwaukee? I have. It’s the worst.

I will bet my life there is no athlete in America who wants to play in Milwaukee. So if you believe Hart is only worth about six million a year and the Brewers have to pay him eight in order to stay and have an above-average right fielder for the next three years, then so be it.

However, no matter how many outfielders the Brewers sign to extensions, it won’t matter until they get some pitching.

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