Kuzul

There are certain batters you associate with strike outs. Adam Dunn comes to mind. So does Mark Reynolds.

One guy you don’t normally think of when it comes to strikeouts is New York Mets’ 3B David Wright. But now perhaps we should.

Wright is striking out at a prolific rate in 2010.

Before we get to what is going on with Wright in 2010, we have to first go back to 2009 to see the start of Wright’s increased strikeout rate. Four the first four years of Wright’s career, he struck out about 19 percent of the time every year.

He was pretty consistent in that category.

However, in 2009, Wright’s strike out rate drastically increased. Last year, Wright was whiffing 26.2 percent of his ABs. To put that rate in perspective, Wright’s was the 15th worst amongst all qualifying Major League hitters last year.

Along with his increased strike out rate, Wright also saw a massive decrease in his offensive production. Wright only hit 10 home runs with an .837 OPS. All those numbers were the lowest of his career.

Heading into the 2010, many (myself included) figured Wright would have a rebound season and a season that resembled his first four full seasons in the Major Leagues. While his overall numbers have returned, his strikeout rate has actually increased.

Through 32 games, Wright has seven home runs and a .930 OPS. His .930 OPS is 15th in the National League. However, Wright is striking out a whopping 37.5 percent of the time this year. That is second in the National League.

To put that number in perspective, the above mentioned Dunn is only striking out 31.8 percent of the time this year. Things have gotten so bad for Wright this year, that he went nine straight ABs with a strikeout.

The streak ended during his second AB last night against the Washington Nationals, but still, striking out nine straight times is one heck of a feat.

Wright is on pace for around 210 strikeouts this year. If he continues this pace, he will finish second for most strike outs in a season. Arizona Diamondbacks’ 3B has the current record of 223.

My take on strikeouts is as long as the guy is producing, strikeouts don’t matter. Ryan Howard is always up there amongst the league leaders in strikeouts and he hasn’t prevented the Philadelphia Phillies from making back-to-back World Series.

Sure, would you like a guy not to strike out as much and be able to advance a runner or drive in a run—absolutely. But sometimes you have to take the good with the bad.

In Wright’s case, it looks like Met fans are going to have to take the increased production with the increased strikeout rate.

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What a tremendous week it was in fantasy baseball.

We saw Jody Gerut hit for the cycle, Rod Barajas hit two home runs in a game, Josh Beckett get bombed again, and of course, Dallas Braden throw the 19th perfect game in major league history.

Here are all the fantasy studs, players who have me concerned, and the potential pickups from the fantasy week that was.

Fantasy Studs

Vladimir Guerrero: .360/4/13

Vlad has found the fountain of youth in Texas.

You could be 100-years-old and would still be able to hit in Texas.

Aaron Rowand: .357/3/11

It’s good to see Rowand hitting the baseball instead of getting hit by them or a wall, or a dugout bench, or anything else Rowand has ran into over the years.

Jayson Werth: .360/4/9.

Werth is really gearing up for huge season and a huge contract at the end of the season.

Nick Swisher: .391/3/9/.440.

As long as guys like Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada get on base in front of him, Swisher should be a good source of RBI all season.

He is also a good source of walks.

Alex Rios: .464/3/8

One of the few Chicago White Sox hitters who have gotten off to a great start, Rios is liking his new home in Chicago.

Rios is hitting .324 with six home runs and nine SB’s on the season.

Jon Lester: 2-0 with 1.80 ERA and 12 K’s in 15 IP

After a slow start, Lester is starting to find his groove.

I still feel confident he can make a run at the Cy Young award.

Jake Peavy: 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 17 K’s in 15 IP

Peavy dominated the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals last week.

He will face the Royals again this week, so Peavy is in play again.

Scott Baker: 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 14 K’s in 15 IP

This was a good week for Baker, who has gotten off to a slow start this year.

He will get wins pitching on the Minnesota Twins, but does give up a lot of hits and runs.

Dallas Braden: 1-1 with 1.69 ERA and 9 K’s in 16 IP

I guess when you throw a perfect game you have to be on this list.

I still wouldn’t trust Braden throughout the season, but on Sunday, he was the man.

Neftali Feliz: Four saves with a 0.00 ERA and Four K’s in four IP

If Feliz continues to pitch lights out, I don’t think Frank Francisco will ever see his job again. Feliz looks to be the new K-Rod.

Reasons for Concern

Troy Tulowitzki

“Tulo” left yesterday’s game with a strained right quad muscle and is listed as day-to-day. Remember, Tulowitzki missed time in 2008 with the same injury.

The Rockies don’t think he will miss any time because of this injury, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Bobby Jenks

Jenks has given up 19 hits in 10 innings this year and blew a save yesterday against the Blue Jays.

When your manager says, “I think we’ve got a lot of options,” that is never a good sign.

Jenks’ reign as closer in Chicago looks to be coming to an end.

Max Scherzer

Scherzer had a 14.46 ERA last week and gave up 17 hits in 9.1 IP.

I have said it before and I will say it again—Scherzer belongs in the bullpen.

His situation is very similar to Joba Chamberlain’s situation in New York. The Yankees realized Chamberlain belonged in the bullpen and the Tigers should do the same.

I would not start Scherzer until he can prove he can get hitters out two or three times in a game.

Potential Pickups

Matt Thornton

Thornton is closer material, and has a 2.35 ERA, and is averaging 14.7 K’s/9.

I would pick him up in lieu of Jenks’ eventual demotion.

JJ Putz has not proven he can get batters out on a consistent basis to warrant moving into the closer’s role.

Starlin Castro

Since his call up from Double-A, Castro is 4-for-12 with a single, double, triple, and home run.

Not a bad start for the 20-year-old shortstop.

Castro is worth the pickup in all Keeper League formats.

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I am going to put this next story in the “We had to blame someone, so let’s blame someone who has nothing to do with why we are struggling” category.

The Seattle Mariners fired hitting coach Alan Cockrell yesterday. Alonzo Powell was promoted from Triple-A Tacoma to replace Cockrell. Here is the reason for the firing according to GM Jack Zduriencik.

“Sometimes just the same message from a different messenger sometimes carries some weight, but it’s certainly apparent we’re not doing what we should be doing offensively,” Zduriencik said. “Certainly guys can look within and they should. Every single player here should evaluate themselves and ask, ‘What am I doing? Where are my contributions at?’ I know the effort is there. There’s no question about that. It’s just a matter of the production.

“So maybe there’s a little key here the new guy can unlock.”

I am sorry Jack, but there is no key to unlock here. You have neglected your offense for the past two season and now this is the bed you have made.

Here is how these situations usually work in sports:

– Team enters the season with unrealistic expectations.

– Team thinking they better than they really are gets off to an extremely slow start. In this case, the Mariners are in last place in the AL West with a 12-19 record

– Management wants to “send a message” so they fire an “underneath” coach, who has very little to do with why the team is struggling.

– If team continues to struggle, management will then fire the head coach or manager during the season and replace him with a lame-duck interim manager.

– At the end of the year, the team fires the entire staff and replaces them with a new staff.

I really see this scenario playing out for the Mariners this year. This lineup is just terrible and I really don’t see how it could get any better unless they make a major trade.

I was watching the Mariners – Angels game on Friday when Jered Weaver was pitching a no-hitter and I laughed when I saw due up for the Mariners were Casey Kotchman- Franklin Gutierrez – Ken Griffey Jr.

What’s so funny about this you ask? These are the Mariners 3-4-5 hitters. Kotchman wouldn’t be a No. 3 hitter on the Mariners’ Triple A team.

Regardless of who the hitting coach is for the Mariners, I don’t see them turning this offense around. There are no impact bats in the middle of the lineup and there are too many guys who are automatic outs.

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It only took two rehab appearances for the Cleveland Indians to feel Kerry Wood is healthy and ready to help the team. Wood, who has been out all year because of a strained right latissimus dorsi muscle was activated from the 15-Day DL yesterday.

Wood was roughed up in his first rehab appearance giving up six runs in two-thirds of an inning, but settled down in his second appearance to pitch a scoreless inning of work. Wood felt he was ready after his second appearance and if a 6′5″, 220 lb Texan says he is ready, I’ll take his word for it.

I am guessing Wood will go back to being the full-time closer in Cleveland right away with Chris Perez moving into an eigth-inning setup man role. Perez, I would say was “fair” filling in for Wood. He has given up three earned runs, struck out five, and has a 2.89 ERA in 9.1 IP this season.

Walks are still an issue for Perez. It’s hard to be reliable when you are walking six guys every 6.1 innings.

If Wood can prove he is healthy and pitch decent for the Tribe, he will become prime trade bait in July.

For a fantasy spin on Wood, I would treat Wood as a low-end No. 2 closer. He might be a source of some cheap saves here and there, but won’t get enough chances on a consistent basis to have a major impact on your team.

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When the Chicago Cubs called up 20-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro from Double-A Tennessee early yesterday afternoon, many had their doubts as to whether or not the Cubs were making the right move.

It took about 45 minutes into his major league debut to erase any doubts that the Cubs made the right move.

In his first major league at-bat, Castro took a hanging curveball from Cincinnati Reds’ starter Homer Bailey and deposited it into the right field stands for his first major league hit and obviously his first major league home run.

However, Castro wasn’t done yet.

In his third at-bat of the game and with the bases loaded, Castro ripped a bases loaded clearing triple to center. All told, Castro went 2-for-5 with a run scored and six RBI in his major league debut.

The Cubs are hoping Castro has the same effect on the team that Ike Davis is having on the New York Mets. Davis has sparked the Mets and their fans, and the Cubs are hoping for the same results from Castro.

As long as Castro continues to hit and shows he belongs at the major league level, he will get the majority of playing time at short. Ryan Theriot will move over to second.

Here are some other facts about Starlin Castro:

Age: 20

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

College: None

Drafted: Undrafted. Signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.

Minor League Stats

2008 Rookie

.311 with three home runs, a .364 OBP, five triples, and six SBs in 51 games

2009 High Single-A and Double-A

.299 with three home runs, a .342 OBP, six triples, and 28 SBs in 127 games

2010 Double-A

.376 with one home run, a .421 OBP, five triples, and four SBs in 26 games

Keith Law Ranking and Analysis

Ranking

No. 12 out of 100 best prospects in baseball in 2010

Analysis

“Castro is one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors as a quick-twitch player with an electric bat and a hose for an arm at shortstop. As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat.

“He has excellent hand-eye coordination and adjusts well when pitchers try to come in on him, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring up pitches many hitters would foul off. His swing can get long when pitchers work him away, but he still makes a lot more contact than most hitters do, courtesy of his bat speed and hand-eye. He recognizes breaking balls well for his age and projects to hit for power even to the opposite field.

“As a shortstop, he’s quick on his feet with good range in both ways, especially to the hole, but it is his arm that really stands out, grading at 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. The Cubs have pushed him up the ladder aggressively, because he can make contact and needed reps against better pitching, but it has obscured his power potential because he’s been so young for his leagues.

“He’s going to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond and could arrive as early as late 2010.”

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What is going on with the Braves lately? They have been dropping like flies.

First Yunel Escobar went down, then Jason Heyward left Wednesday night’s game against the Washington Nationals with a sore groin, and now they have placed RHP Jair Jurrjens on the 15-day DL. Surprisingly, Chipper Jones is not on this list, but I guess it is just a matter of time before he gets there.

The Braves placed Jurrjens on the DL because of a strained left hamstring. The move is retroactive to April 30th.

Jurrjens had a tremendous year last year with the Braves, but 2010 has been a different story for Jurrjens. It seems like he has been playing catchup all season.

He had a shoulder issue in spring training and has gotten off to an 0-3 start with a 6.38 ERA and a 4.1 BB/9 ratio. His 4.1 BB/9 ratio is a full walk higher than what it was last year.

Perhaps Jurrjens will use this time off to get settled, regroup, and start over.

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For every young center fielder like Colby Rasmus who is blossoming, there are center fielders who are slow out of the gate. Let’s look at four up-and-coming center fielders who are really struggling so far.

Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: .174 with two home runs, a .267 OBP, a 32.6 K percentage in 26 games

Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins: .238 with a home run, a .304 OBP, a 34.3 K percentage in 25 games

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies: .257 with a home run, a .342 OBP, a 24.8 K percentage in 28 games

Julio Borbon, Texas Rangers: .193 with zero home runs, a .212 OBP, a 19. K percentage in 24 games

All of these talented players were projected to have breakout seasons in 2010 and as you can see, they all have struggled out of the gate. Now of course things can change over an 162 game schedule, but their starts don’t look promising.

Out of these four players, the one I would be most concerned with is Maybin. He concerns me for two reasons:

1. As I wrote earlier in the week, Maybin doesn’t appear to have much of an approach at the plate. I think the word that would best describe Maybin in the batter’s box would be “indecisive.”

With Maybin’s leg kick, his timing has to be perfect on fastballs and more importantly on breaking pitches. His poor timing at the plate would his explain his -3.1 wSL on the season, which is the seventh worst amongst all major league hitters.

For those of you not familiar with what wSL means, it’s Runs Above Average on that particular pitch. In this case the pitch is a slider.

2. Despite being an organization known for grooming young stars, they are also an organization that has very little patience. I think the Marlins are starting to lose patience with Maybin.

The Marlins already benched Maybin for last night’s game against the San Francisco Giants and I wonder if that will continue moving forward.

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It’s not often we talk about college baseball here at The Ghost of Moonlight Graham , but I thought we would today. Yesterday, the NCAA announced its College World Series legends team.

The 25 players and three coaches were selected from a list of 95 nominees picked by the NCAA, the Omaha World-Herald and the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association. Members of the team who can attend will be honored at the CWS this year, in the final season of Rosenblatt Stadium.

Here is the list of the players that were selected.

• Dustin Ackley, North Carolina, 1b, 2007-09
• Will Clark, Mississippi State, 1b, 1985
• Bob Horner, Arizona State, 2b, 1976-78
• Todd Walker, Louisiana State, 2b, 1993-94
• Darwin Barney, Oregon State, ss, 2005-07
• Nomar Garciaparra, Georgia Tech, ss, 1994
• Spike Owen, Texas, ss, 1981-82
• Sal Bando, Arizona State, 3b, 1964-65
• Pat Burrell, Miami (Fla.), 3b, 1996-98
• Robin Ventura, Oklahoma State, 3b, 1986-87
• Barry Bonds, Arizona State, of, 1983-84
• J.D. Drew, Florida State, of, 1995
• Terry Francona, Arizona, of, 1979-80
• Mark Kotsay, Cal State Fullerton, of, 1994-95
• Fred Lynn, Southern California, of, 1971-73
• Dave Winfield, Minnesota, of, 1973
• Steve Arlin, Ohio State, rhp, 1965-66
• Eddie Bane, Arizona State, lhp, 1972-73
• Burt Hooton, Texas, rhp, 1969-70
• Huston Street, Texas, rhp, 2002-04
• Jason Windsor, Cal State Fullerton, rhp, 2004
• Ryan Garko, Stanford, c, 2001-03
• Landon Powell, South Carolina, c, 2002-04
• Pete Incaviglia, Oklahoma State, dh, 1983-85
• Brooks Kieschnick, Texas, dh-rhp, 1992-93

For me, the best college baseball player I saw play (1990 – current) was Todd Walker. When Walker was at LSU he was a hitting machine. I really thought he was going to be the next great hitting second baseman.

Walker went on to have a solid major league career, but never came close to the hitter I thought he would be. I thought he would be Chase Utley good.

The other player that stands out to me on this list is Brooks Kieschnick. Kieschnick was another player that was a man amongst boys in college, but never enjoyed any success at the major league level.

Kieschnick was kind of a “tweener.” He was a really good hitter and a really good pitcher, but never did anything great that would translate to the Major League game.

Kieschnick ended up playing parts of six seasons with the Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, and Milwaukee Brewers. After trying his hand as a hitter early on in his career, Kieschnick converted to a full-time pitcher and enjoyed his most success with the Brewers in 2004 when he posted a 3.77 ERA in 43 innings.

Congratulations to all these players and their accomplishments at the college level. The 2010 College World Series starts June 19th.

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It only took five starts for Washington Nationals’ RHP Stephen Strasburg to get his first promotion as a professional baseball player.

After going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 27 K’s in 22 IP against Double A batters, the Nationals have promoted Strasburg to Triple A Syracuse. My guess is that if Strasburg impresses at the Triple A level, the Nationals will promote him to the big club by June.

Not only will Strasburg help the Nationals’ rotation when he arrives, but he will also help attendance numbers as well. The Nationals currently rank 25th in baseball in attendance averaging 19,000 a game.

I would bet that the days when Strasburg pitches attendance will be in the 30,000’s.

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The New York Yankees went into last night’s game against the Baltimore Orioles with a 16-8 record and have essentially gotten nothing from Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, and Javier Vazquez.

I guess that might be all relative because they have gotten some unreal production from guys like Francisco Cervelli, Marcus Thames, Andy Pettitte, and Brett Gardner. But going back to the players who have struggled, perhaps the biggest concern for the Yankees in the long run is Vazquez.

To say Vazquez has been brutal so far in five starts is the understatement of the century. In five starts, Vazquez is 1-3 with a 9.78 ERA. I am thinking he should never be allowed to pitch in the American League again.

Things have gotten so bad for Vazquez that the Yankees will skip his next start in Boston against the Red Sox. Manager Joe Girardi said he wants to give Vazquez a “couple of days to catch his breath.”

That is AKA for “We have zero confidence in his ability right now and we can bury the Red Sox this weekend and Vazquez can’t help us do that at all.” Vazquez will make his next start against the Detroit Tigers on Monday.

So now that the Yankees have skipped his start, what has been Vazquez’s biggest issue this year?

First and foremost his velocity is down. Last year, Vazquez averaged about 91 mph on his fastball. This year, his fastball is down to about 88 mph. If you are right-handed and throwing 88 mph you better a) hit your spots 95 percent of the time and b) know how to trick people.

Vazquez hasn’t learned how to do either this year.

Second, Vazquez is not throwing groundballs. His groundball rate is around 34 percent, which is the lowest of his career. Coincidentally, Vazquez is throwing more flyballs (47 percent) this year than any other point in his career.

If almost 50 percent of the balls hit against you are flyballs in that joke of a stadium in the Bronx then you are going to be in for a long season. There is no way Vazquez can continue his current flyball rate and be successful.

The Yankees will give Vazquez every opportunity to turn things around. But if his velocity and groundball rate don’t improve, Yankee fans might boo Vazquez right out of the Bronx.

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