Kuzul

We have gone ahead and updated the Fan Confidence Graphs section of The Ghost of Moonlight Graham for the month of February. 

The graphs were updated based on a team’s activity and news for the month of January.

Teams that really didn’t do much in January, like the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants, stayed the same as the previous month.

However, teams like the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers that made significant and good moves had their fans’ confidence increase, while teams that had a poor month of January, like the Los Angeles Angels, saw their fans’ confidence in their team go down.

Click on Graphs and enjoy.

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With January winding down and February approaching, it’s time to get into fantasy baseball mode.

As we go through February and head towards March and everyone’s fantasy draft, we will start pumping out more fantasy articles in preparation.

Today, we will take a look at five guys who had their fantasy value drop and in some cases, plummet because events that happened in this offseason.

Here are the top-five fantasy losers from this offseason and guys you might want to stay away from on draft day.

Rankings are in no particular order.

1. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees. Soriano was a machine in 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a 1.73 ERA, O.83 WHIP, and really helped fantasy owners out with 45 saves.

Depending on the format of your league, Soriano was the third or fourth best fantasy closer last season.

Now, unless Mariano Rivera gets hurt in The Bronx, Soriano has very little fantasy value heading into 2011 as a setup man.

2. Bobby Jenks, Boston Red Sox. Like Soriano above, Jenks was a closer last season and now finds himself as a setup man.

Despite having and up and down year with the White Sox in 2010, he did have 27 saves and 61 K’s in 52.2 IP.

Even if current Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon does continue to regress and get replaced, Jenks isn’t guaranteed to pick up the majority of the saves in Boston.

He still has to perform better than Daniel Bard to have that opportunity.

3. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals. In most leagues, Werth was a top-10 outfielder in 2010 when he .296 with 27 HR’s, 85 RBI, 106 runs, and 13 SB’s.

But that was with the Philadelphia Phillies, playing the majority of his games in the very hitter friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark, and being surrounded by the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins.

Now, outside of Ryan Zimmerman, Werth doesn’t have much around him. I expect his numbers to take a slight dip in 2011 and Werth moving from a top-10 outfielder to a top-15-to-20 outfielder.

4. Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers. I like Moreland, I really do. I am a big fan. He hit nine HR’s with the Rangers last season in just 173 plate appearances.

If you take what he did over an 162 game schedule, Moreland was on a 31 HR, 86 RBI, 86 BB pace. Those stats would have made Moreland a top-15 fantasy first baseman in 2010.

Up until last week, I thought Moreland could have been a top-15 fantasy first baseman in 2011.

But now that Mike Napoli is in the mix, I don’t believe Moreland is going to get the AB’s he needs to be able to produce on a consistent basis. Now he ranks in the 25-30 range amongst first baseman.

5. Mike Cameron, Boston Red Sox. Cameron didn’t do much last season as an injury limited him to only 49 games.

When the 2010 season ended, Cameron figured he would get his centerfield job back. But now that the Red Sox have signed Carl Crawford, Cameron is the odd man out in Boston.

If Cameron was healthy and the everyday centerfielder for Boston in 2011, 20-25 HR’s and 10-15 SB’s wouldn’t have been out of the question.

He would have been a serviceable OF on your fantasy team. Now he will play only a couple of days a week and unless Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury or J.D. Drew get hurt (very likely with Drew), Cameron has very little fantasy value.

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the top-five fantasy winners from this offseason.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Just as often as I admit I was right about a prediction or something I wrote about, I admit when I was wrong about something. And I have to admit, I was dead wrong about C.J. Wilson last season.

I didn’t see Wilson making a successful transition from reliever to starter, but man, was he good in 2010. Wilson had a 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and averaged 7.5 Ks/nine in 204 IP. Until Cliff Lee arrived, you can say Wilson was the ace of the Texas Rangers’ staff.

What was perhaps most impressive about Wilson’s transition from reliever to starter in 2010 was his consistency. Despite throwing 130 more innings than he had ever done before, his second half ERA was almost identical to his first half ERA—3.36 to 3.35.

Another reliever who is will try to do his best in 2011 to pull a Wilson is Detroit Tigers’ LHP Phil Coke. After appearing in 73 games last season as a reliever, Coke will be given a shot to start for the Tigers. Coke did start one game for the Tigers last season, but that was on the last game of the season, and he only went 1.2 innings as Jim Leyland was trying to get as many pitchers into the game as possible.

So the question is for Coke and Tiger fans, can he be as successful as Wilson was transitioning from a reliever to a starter? I believe the answer is yes.

First, if you take the task at hand in its simplest form, Coke might be more prepared than Wilson moving into the role. Before 2010, the last time Wilson started a game was back in 2005. That is an eon between starts.

Coke, on the other hand, was a starter throughout his minor league career with the New York Yankees. As late as 2008, Coke was making starts in Triple-A. He made 20 starts that season.

Those 20 starts just three years ago should give Coke an edge as he prepares to make the transition. The routine shouldn’t be lost on him.

Second, most relievers rely on two pitches to get hitters out. One advantage Wilson had in his transition was that he threw four pitches out of the pen. Out of the bullpen in 2009, Wilson threw a fastball (70 percent of the time), slider (18.5 percent), cutter (5.6 percent) and change (5.3 percent).

Coke has a similar repertoire.

Coke threw three types of pitches in 2010, one more than your average reliever. Coke threw a fastball (60.5 percent of the time), slider (24.5 percent) and a change (14.9.).

I do think if Coke is going to enjoy success in 2011, he is going to have to come up with another quality pitch. His WAR on his fastball in 2010 was 6.6, slider was -0.4I enj and change was 2.1. He is going to need to develop a cutter or really improve on his slider to get hitters out a second or third time throughout a game.

Wilson did a good job of mixing up his pitches. He increased the usage of his cutter to 18.6 percent and change to 16.7 percent, while decreased the usage of his fastball all the way down to 49.2 percent.

If Coke can make the successful transition from reliever to starter, the Tigers could really be in business in 2011. He might just be the “key” to the Tigers’ season.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostomflg

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Before we get to the New York Yankees and Andruw Jones, can we first talk about the press conference they held yesterday to announce the Rafael Soriano signing? Was that not the most awkward press conference to introduce a new player ever?

I have never seen a press conference where the GM of all people says he had no interest in signing the player. When Brian Cashman was holding up Soriano’s jersey, it looked like someone just told him Alex Rodriguez slept with his wife. It was really awkward.

And what added more awkwardness to the situation was how smug Randy Levine was throughout the whole process. His facial reactions were the polar opposite of those by Cashman.

Levine is becoming the poster child of why people hate the Yankees. He is like that kid in high school that knows nothing about baseball, but follows the Yankees because it’s the cool thing to do, and when the Yankees win he brags and gloats about it to the point where it becomes obnoxious and then you just want to punch him in the face.

That’s Levine and about 80 percent of the kids in high school in the New York area in a nutshell.

Now on the Jones signing.

The Yankees signed Jones to a one-year, $2 million contract. Jones can earn another $1.2 million in performance incentives.

If this signing occurred 10 years ago:

A. Jones wouldn’t be making just $2 million in base salary, and

B. This would be a “holy shnikies” signing.

The reality is, Andruw Jones, well, isn’t Andruw Jones anymore. He is a fourth outfielder at best, and that is the role he will serve with the Yankees.

Jones will be the 2011 version of the 2010 Marcus Thames for the Yankees. Like Thames, Jones will fill in for Brett Gardner or Curtis Granderson against tough left-handed pitchers.

Despite having a .724 OPS over the past three seasons, Jones can still hit left-handed pitching. The soon-to-be 34-year-old had a .931 OPS against left-handed pitching last season. He also had an impressive eight HRs in just 102 plate appearances against lefties in 2010.

Defensively, Jones is a shell of his former self. During his prime in center, Jones averaged around a 22.0 UZR. Now, he is posting a -1.7 UZR, like he did last season with the Chicago White Sox.

Watching Jones in center is like watching Ric Flair in TNA these days. It’s hard to watch because you remember what it used to be.

Despite that, I still expect Jones to fill in more often for Granderson than Gardner. Gardner is too good defensively to replace with the mediocre Jones.

In the role Jones will serve with the Yankees in 2011, he should do just fine.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Seattle Mariners OF/DH Milton Bradley was arrested on Wednesday morning for violating California penal code section 422, which involves making a “criminal threat.” The details of the arrest are not yet known, but Bradley was released on $50,000 bail.

It looks like it’s game over for Bradley in Seattle.

And yes, it’s also “game over” for the 2011 “Cheesy Line of the Year by a Blogger” award, which I just won with the above sentence. It always feels good to run away with an award so early in the year.

In all seriousness, since we don’t know yet exactly what Bradley did, I am not going to comment on that. What I will comment on is that Bradley has most likely played his last game in a Mariners’ uniform.

Bradley has seemingly had issues with every team he has been throughout his Major League career and now it appears the Mariners are no different. Considering that Bradley and new manager Eric Wedge had issues in the past during their time in Cleveland together, I can’t possibly see how he can be on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster.

GM Jack Zduriencik said he is going through process in determining the full circumstances of what occurred. In layman’s terms he means that he is figuring out contractually if he can get rid of Bradley so he doesn’t have to pay him the $12 million he is owed in 2011.

And speaking of Zduriencik, has a GM gone from chicken salad to chicken sh%t quicker than him? Last year he was the darling of baseball. He was the trendiest guy in all the land. Now he is running a mess in Seattle.

More on this story as it develops.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg.

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Poor Jon Rauch.

In an offseason where every reliever and their mother is getting two or three-year deals, Rauch can only muster a one-year deal.

Heck, even Kyle Farnsworth was able to get an option for a second year.

It’s as if he is the red-headed stepchild of relievers this offseason.

Rauch signed a one-year, $3.25 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend. Rauch should pull a Latrell Sprewell at his press conference and tell everyone that he isn’t sure he can feed his family with this deal.

In all seriousness, this is a good signing by the Blue Jays. The 6’11″ right-hander had a 3.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and averaged 7.2 K’s/9 with the Minnesota Twins last season.

What was interested about Rauch’s season in Minnesota was that he stunk at home and was really good on the road.

Here are Rauch’s home and road splits from 2010:

Home: 28.1 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.6 SO/BB

Away: 29.1 IP, 1.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.2 SO/BB

Considering that the new Target Field turned into a pitcher’s park, it’s odd that Rauch would struggle so much at home.

I can attribute the difference in ERA to Rauch’s ridiculously high Left On Base Percentage away from home. Rauch stranded 85 percent of the runners on base away from Target Field, as compared to 71 percent at home.

As for the other reasons for why Rauch struggled at home? You are going to have to ask him that question.

Rauch will join another newly signed reliever, Octavio Dotel at the back end of the Blue Jay bullpen in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Back on December 22nd, I wrote a post wondering who’s going to be in left field for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2011.

Here is how I ended the post:

“I am going to venture to say the Dodgers sign Thames to play left against left-handed pitching and they will platoon him with Gibbons. Not the best combination in the world, but maybe the best of what the Dodgers have to work with.”

Truth be told and almost one month later, the Dodgers have indeed signed Marcus Thames.

Thames played last season with the New York Yankees and hit .288/.350/.491 with 12 HRs in 237 plate appearances. Thames was, once again, solid against left-handed pitching as he hit .300/.352/.454 against lefties.

Look for Thames to platoon with Jay Gibbons in left in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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My big knock on the Washington Nationals’ offseason so far has been their failure to upgrade their starting rotation or bullpen. I just don’t understand the logic of adding a fringe star in Jayson Werth and an above average first baseman in Adam LaRoche, but not improving the weakest links of their team.

It took them awhile, but finally the Nationals have added some starting pitching.

The Nationals have acquired LHP Tom Gorzelanny from the Chicago Cubs for three minor league prospects. Those prospects are OF Michael Burgess, RHP A.J. Morris and there will be one more pitcher going to the Cubs.

In Gorzelanny, the Nationals add some much needed depth to their starting rotation. As a starter, Gorzelanny had a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 in 23 starts. Overall, he was good for a 2.3 WAR.

While his stats might not seem sexy, his 2.3 WAR would have been good for second amongst all National League starting pitchers in 2010. Only Livan Hernandez and his 3.0 WAR would have been better than Gorzelanny last season.

What Gorzelanny brings to the Nationals is a “known.” Right now, the Nationals have a bunch of unknowns in their starting rotation. Hernandez is 100 years old, Jason Marquis is coming off of surgery, John Lannan has been really up and down, and Stephen Strasburg will start the year on the DL.

At least with Gorzelanny, the Nationals know he can take the ball every fifth day. Now, what comes out of Gorzelanny’s arm is a different story, but the Nationals need guys that can help them be at least competitive on a day-to-day basis and Gorzelanny can do that.

For the Cubs, after acquiring Matt Garza last week, they really didn’t need Gorzelanny. He was the odd man out in Chicago.

What this trade does for the Cubs is allow them to replenish their farm system. They aren’t getting the caliber of prospect back from the Nationals that they gave to the Tampa Bay Rays, but Morris and Burgess should provide some much needed organizational depth.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Burgess was the seventh rated prospect in the Nationals’ system. He is a 22-year-old, big hitting right fielder that has the tools to become an every day right fielder in the Major Leagues. However, Keith Law doesn’t see Burgess as anything more than a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues.

Morris was the 17th-ranked prospect in the Nationals’ organization by Baseball Prospectus. He has a good sinker/slider combination, but doesn’t project as anything more than a middle reliever.

As soon as the third prospect that is going to the Cubs is named, I will update this post.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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It’s game on in Oakland.

Very, very quietly, the Oakland A’s have had a very solid offseason. They have improved their offense with the additions of Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus and Josh Willingham (loved that move by them), and now they are really improving their already-existing solid bullpen.

Fuentes is the latest reliever signed by the A’s

 

To go along with Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, Jerry Blevins and Andrew Bailey, the A’s added Grant Balfour last week and now they have signed LHP Brian Fuentes.

According to the Associated Press, the A’s have signed Fuentes. Official terms of the deal haven’t been announced yet, but Ken Rosenthal believes it will be a two-year deal with a $5 million option for a third year. It looks like the first two years will be around $5 million annually for Fuentes.

Anyone who has visited this site on a consistent basis knows that I have always viewed Fuentes as a setup man/closer on a small market team rather than a closer on a World Series-contending team. So the fact that Fuentes will be primarily a setup man to Bailey and will occasionally close games—it’s the perfect role for him.

This is really a good signing by the A’s.

Last year with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Minnesota Twins, Fuentes compiled a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.8 K’s/9, 3.8 BB’s/9 and a 22.8 Groundball Percentage in 48 total IP. Fuentes was really tough on lefties, holding them to a .128/.222/.149 with ZERO HR’s in 55 plate appearances.

Listen, is Fuentes a lock down reliever?

No, not by any stretch of the imagination. At this point in his career, he can’t get right-handed batters out and he will walk his fair share of batters. He is one of those relievers that will walk two and give up a hit in the ninth, but somehow gets out of the inning unscathed.

I also like this move for Oakland because it does give them some insurance if Bailey is not ready for Opening Day. I wrote last week that it appears all systems go for Bailey, but if he suffers a set back, Fuentes or Ziegler could fill in.

Now, can people complain about the contract Fuentes got?

Sure, but Joaquin Benoit set that market a long time ago. Three years and $15 million seems to be the going rate for middle relievers these days.

I think with the moves the A’s have made this offseason, they will be serious contenders for the American League West crown. I am not sure if they have enough fire power to overtake the Texas Rangers, but I would be shocked if they aren’t neck and neck come September.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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This is probably not the headline St. Louis Cardinal fans were hoping to see as they head towards the 2011 season. They were hoping to see a headline that read something like this, “Albert Pujols Signs 7-Year Extension.”

That headline still might happen, but if the Cardinals are going to make that happen, they better get a move on it.

According to Andrew Moses on Twitter, the Cardinals were informed by Pujols’ camp that they have until the beginning of Spring Training to work out an extension with the best player in the game. Originally, the Cardinals thought they had until the end of spring training to work something out.

So there is good news and bad news to this. If you are a Cardinal fan, which one do you want to hear first? I feel most people take the bad news first when given the option, so I will drop that on you first.

The bad news is that it very much appears Pujols is headed towards free agency after the 2011 season. The only team that doesn’t have to worry about their superstars leaving town when they become free agents is the New York Yankees. For the other 29 teams in baseball, all bets are off when it comes to re-signing their superstars.

And if Pujols makes it to free agency, all bets will be off in regards to him re-signing with the Cardinals. There will be five-to-six legit contenders for his services.

The good news? The Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies don’t need a first baseman. Those are the only teams that could have blown the Cardinals out of the water with an absurd contract. With those teams for all intents and purposes out of the bidding, the Cardinals should be on a level playing field with the other teams interested in Pujols.

I think the teams that will be interested in Pujols will be the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles. Of all those teams, the Orioles would be my dark horse. Derrek Lee is only on a one-year contract and Pujols could be the guy to put the Orioles back on the baseball map.

But even if it’s not the Orioles who make a run at Pujols, I don’t believe any of those teams I mentioned can blow the Cardinals out of the water. If Pujols really wants to return to the Cardinals and they make a competitive offer, then they should be able to afford to keep him.

If the Cardinals and Pujols aren’t able to work something out before the start of Spring Training (which is in a month by the way), then this will be one of the biggest story lines throughout the 2011 season.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg.

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