Kuzul

When defining this offseason, I think we will define it as a player’s market. We have seen aces, pseudo aces, mediocre bullpen guys, and not quite superstars get paid like superstars.

It seems like everyone at every position has made out this offseason. Every position, that is, except DH.

With a renewed emphasis on speed and defense that has taken place over the past couple of seasons in baseball, DH’s are no longer getting the love they used to.

DH’s like Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Jim Thome have had a hard time finding jobs this winter because no teams want to meet their contract demands. Thome is a great example of the declining DH market.

Thome was reportedly said to be seeking around $8 million a year. Instead, he had to settle for $3 million.

Thome re-signed with the Minnesota Twins on Friday as the two sides agreed to a one-year, $3 million contract. The 40-year-old can also earn incentives based on plate appearances.

The Twins took advantage of the down DH market and Thome’s love of Minnesota (he supposedly took less money to play with the Twins) to get a tremendous bargain. I don’t think there is anyone who can say anything bad about this signing even if they tried.

Thome hit .283/.412./.627 with 25 HR’s in 108 games. He absolutely crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .302/.455/.698 with 19 HR’s. Even if Thome produces something slightly less than what he did last year, this will still be a steal for the Twins.

And I think the Twins needed Thome back. They have taken a little bit of a beating this offseason, losing Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and potentially Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch. They could also lose Carl Pavano too, but he is expected to re-sign any day now.

Bringing Thome back not only gives the Twins a serious presence in the middle of their lineup, but he is a solid clubhouse guy, and gives the Twins fan base a little sense that they are still in it to win it. Great re-signing by the Twins.

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Here is what I wrote in my “Where Do The Yankees Go From Here?” post back in early December:

“What I can see the Yankees doing if they don’t bring back Pettitte or even if they do, is build a super bullpen. The best way to compensate for a weak (by Yankee standards) rotation, is to have a strong bullpen.

What would prevent the Yankees from signing Rafael Soriano and re-signing Kerry Wood? Soriano can’t find a home right now, so why not pair him up with Mariano Rivera? A Wood-Soriano-Rivera trifecta at the end of the game would be lethal.”

Almost one month to the day that I wrote that post, the Yankees have gone out and created a super bullpen. They didn’t re-sign Wood, but they will have two-thirds of my suggestion in 2011.

According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees have signed Rafael Soriano to a three-year, $35 million contract. In the terms of the contract, Soriano can opt out after the first year and the second year as well.

This is a deal that works out well for both sides.

For the Yankees, they get the best reliever on the market to pair with Rivera to give them the best one-two late-inning punch in baseball.

The Yankees’ bullpen will also feature the newly acquired Pedro Feliciano and mainstays Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson and Boone Logan.

Soriano had a monster year in 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 8.2 K’s in 62.1 IP. He was pretty much automatic in the ninth for the Rays.

The Yankees are hoping Soriano sticks around for the next two years, becomes Rivera’s little sidekick, and then takes over for him in 2013. That role was supposed to go to Chamberlain, but that ship has sailed.

Did the Yankees overpay for Soriano? Of course they did. But the Yankees overpay for everyone, so this shouldn’t come as a surprise.

For Soriano, this was a no-brainer move on his part. He gets the big contract he wanted, but also gets to opt out if he wants to try to earn another payday.

He probably won’t get as much money on a per-year basis next year on the open market, but he could get another year out of a deal.

My early prediction on this move is that Soriano will opt out after the 2011 season, won’t find anyone who will pay him the money and the years he is seeking, and will end up coming back to the Yankees under his current deal.

As a side note to this deal, the Yankees will have to surrender their 2011 first-round pick to the Rays. That will be the 31st pick in the draft.

The last 31st pick to be just as productive as Soriano? Some guy named Greg Maddux, who was drafted by the Chicago Cubs with the 31st pick in the 1984 Draft (tip o’ the hat to Kevin Goldstein for that tidbit).

The Rays now have three picks in the first round and nine picks before the second round starts. Their scouting department had better get to work.

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Kyle Farnsworth is like the Fanny Pack. He was popular for a little bit in the 90′s, but then everyone realized it was a bad idea to have him around.

Then, just when you think he is going to fade out, someone breaks it out again in full force.

That’s Farnsworth to me. Just when you think teams wouldn’t invest in him, he keeps getting good contracts and now not only is he getting good contracts, but his responsibilities may increase.

Farnsworth signed a one-year, $3.25 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays that includes an option that could earn him up to $6 million.

If you thought that contract was interesting, then you might find the fact that Farnsworth could possibly be closing games for the Rays in 2011 flat-out astonishing.

If you take a look at the Rays’ bullpen as of today, Farnsworth appears to be the most logical choice to close games in Tampa in 2011. Right now, their bullpen consists of guys like Adam Russell, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee and Mike Ekstrom.

I could see Russell being the dark horse to close for the Rays in 2011, but it appears Farnsworth is the man right now.

I don’t care what his peripherals say over the last couple of years. If a team has Farnsworth closing games, they are telling their fanbase they really aren’t serious about winning in 2011.

He sucks out loud.

The Rays might still bring back Grant Balfour to close or they may bring in Brian Fuentes to close in 2011.

However, if the Rays are going to pay a bullpen guy $3 million, which is like $10 million in big-market team dollars, I have to believe he is going to be doing something more than pitching the seventh inning.

Watching Farnsworth pitch the ninth inning trying to protect a one-run lead at Fenway Park has to be a scary thought if you are a Rays fan.

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There’s been a new development in the “Will Andy Pettitte pitch for the New York Yankees in 2011?” question that seems to have Yankee fans on pins and needles this offseason.

According to Stefan Bondy and Nathaniel Vinton of the NY Daily News, Pettitte has told GM Brian Cashman that he won’t be pitching for the Yankees at the start of the 2011 season.

He hasn’t officially retired, but he told Cashman not to count on him to start the season.

Until Pettitte officially decides what do, this story has classic Yankee dragging this out until we are all blue in the face written all over it. Pettitte will dominate WFAN like the “Joba Rules” did two summers ago.

And if the Yankees get off to a slow start, forget about it.

With this news, look for the Yankees to up their pursuit of Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis or Justin Duchscherer.

To this day, I still maintain that Rafael Soriano will end up in a Yankee uniform.

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Instead of hanging on for one more season, Major League Baseball’s all-time saves leader has decided to retire.

Trevor Hoffman told MLB.com’s Barry Bloom that he has officially retired. Hoffman pitched 18 seasons with the Florida Marlins, San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers. He finished his career with a 2.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 9.4 K’s/9 in 1,089.1 innings.

There are a lot of things that we can talk about when it comes to Hoffman. We can talk about his Bugs Bunny changeup, how he was the National League version of Mariano Rivera or we can talk about how he blew games in some big spots like in the 1998 World Series or in the play-in game against the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

What I want to talk about, for the purposes of this post, is whether or not Hoffman should be in the Hall of Fame. Look, the reality is, Hoffman will get into the Hall most likely on the first ballot. But my question is—is he any different than when Lee Smith retired?

I know Hall of Fame debates have been beaten to death over the last couple of weeks, but I also think they are very interesting and some are very valid debates. Lee vs. Hoffman, I believe is one of them.

Like Hoffman, when Lee retired, he was the all-time saves leader in Major League Baseball. I feel like people are holding that record in higher regard now that Hoffman holds it and when Smith retired as the all-time saves leader, it was kind of dismissed.

Not only did both of them hold the saves record when they retired, but their stats are very similar. Take a look…

While Hoffman had the better stats overall, they weren’t so much better than Lee’s where someone would think they aren’t comparable. I think the biggest difference between Hoffman and Lee is the perception people have them.

Lee’s reputation got hurt at the end of his career because he played on five teams in his last five years and really became a ham n’ egger. Hoffman only played on three teams in 18 seasons and was solid all the way up to his 17th season.

2011 was Lee’s ninth year on the ballot and he received 45.3 percent of the vote. In five years, Hoffman will be eligible for the the HOF for the first time, and I am guessing Hoffman does a lot better than 45.3 percent of the vote.

As we have pointed out on this site before, HOF voting has a lot to do with perception. Perception sometimes plays a bigger role than stats.

The perception is Hoffman is a first ballot HOF’er and Lee is not even worthy to get in. That shouldn’t be the case. Hoffman had a great career, but so did Lee.

They both should be recognized for it.

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The Oakland A’s have had a pretty productive offseason so far as they try to improve on their .500 record from 2010. Of course one of the keys on improving on that record is the development of their offense. They are going to need to do better than finishing 11th in the American League in runs scored in order to pass the Texas Rangers in the AL West.

Another key to the A’s’ season is getting closer Andrew Bailey healthy.

Bailey is on schedule for Opening Day

Bailey missed the final month-and-a-half of the regular season last year because of an elbow injury. When he went to visit Dr. James Andrews, I thought he was headed for Tommy John surgery, but that was not the case. All Bailey needed was a quick “clean up,” which was great news for A’s fans.

Five months later, A’s fans got some more great news about the former AL Rookie of the Year.

According to MLB.com’s Jane Lee, Bailey was cleared to begin throwing again, and all signs point to him being ready for Opening Day. I know the godfather of Moneyball Billy Beane doesn’t believe in one guy being the man in the ninth, the A’s really do need Bailey in 2011.

In two seasons with the A’s, Bailey has a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and averaged 7.7 K’s/9. Bailey saw a slight dip in his K/9 from 9.8 in 2009 to 7.7 in 2010, and he saw a HUGE increase in his O-Contact Percentage (Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone) from 57.6 percent in 2009 to 66.9 percent in 2010.

That nine percent increase is pretty big. I will attribute those dips in performance to his elbow issue and spending time on the disabled list with a right intercostal strain beginning in late July.

The reason Bailey is so important to the A’s is because when you put him and Brad Ziegler at the end of games, the game is over. If Bailey can’t go early on, Ziegler is a more than adequate replacement, but the both of them together give the A’s a lethal one-two punch in the eighth and ninth.

The next step for Bailey is to start throwing from 120 feet. If he can do that pain free, all signs point to him being ready by Opening Day.

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The big news out of the Chicago White Sox camp this offseason was their acquisition of Adam Dunn. Dunn finally gives the White Sox the left-handed presence they have wanted for the past couple of seasons.

While Dunn might have been the headliner for the White Sox this offseason, he is one of the many moves they made concerning their bullpen. There has been a lot of changes to their pen, so let’s take a look at who is in, who is out, and where the chips may fall in 2011.

Out

Bobby Jenks, RHP: Last year’s closer was non-tendered in November and was signed by the Boston Red Sox in December. Jenks had a 4.44 ERA in 52.2 IP.

J.J. Putz, RHP: Putz was a valuable part of the White Sox bullpen in 2010, posting a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 10.8 K’s/9 in 54 innings. He was a force in the eighth inning, where he posted a 1.04 ERA. He signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks to be their closer.

Scott Linebrink, RHP: Linebrink had a 4.40 ERA and struck out 8.2 batters per innings in 57.1 innings for the White Sox in 2010. He was traded to the Atlanta Braves in December and never lived up to the four-year, $19 million contract he signed prior to the 2008 season.

In

Jesse Crain, RHP: Crain appeared in 71 games for the Minnesota Twins in 2010. He posted a solid 3.04 ERA and 8.2 K’s/9 in 68 IP. Even as a right-handed pitcher, he held left-handed batters to a .198 BAA last year.

Will Ohman, LHP: The latest bullpen acquisition by GM Kenny Williams, Ohman signed a two-year, $4 million contract on Friday. Ohman held lefties to a .229 BAA and just five extra-base hits in 99 plate appearances with the Baltimore Orioles and Florida Marlins last season.

Already There

Matt Thornton, LHP: Perhaps the most solid reliever the White Sox have. Thornton struck out 81 in 60.2 IP in 2010 and is equally deadly on righties as he is on lefties. Righties only hit .203 against him and lefties hit .199. He is one of the better relief pitchers in baseball.

Sergio Santos, RHP: The converted SS has really found a home in the White Sox bullpen. Santos had a 2.96 ERA and struck out 56 in 51.2 innings with Chicago in 2010. He has a wicked splitter but does struggle with control.

Tony Pena, RHP: Pena comes into the game if the White Sox are up by five runs, down by five runs, or there are no other options. He is like an old fashioned “Swing Man”, as he did start three games in 2010. He had a 5.10 ERA in 100.2 IP.

Chris Sale, LHP: Sale was the 13th pick in the 2010 June Draft and then made his White Sox debut on August 6th. That’s called firing through a system. Sale didn’t disappoint when he got to the White Sox, as he posted a 1.93 ERA and averaged 12.3 K/9 in 23.1 IP.

Now that we have looked at who is in, who is out, and who remains, here is where I think the chips will fall for the White Sox bullpen in 2011:

Closer: Sale. With the addition of Ohman, a lot of people think that means Sale will move to the rotation. Unless the White Sox trade either Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, or John Danks, I don’t see how that can happen.

I think Sale remains in the pen and ends up the White Sox closer in 2011.

Eighth Inning Setup Man: Thornton. Thornton will take over for Putz in the eighth and he will be used against righties and lefties in that spot

Left-Handed Specialist: Ohman. Pretty easy call here. Ohman will be used to get a tough lefty out late in the game or if Thornton is unavailable to pitch that day.

Right-Handed Specialist: Crain. Crain held righties to a .228 BAA last season, so he will come on in the seventh to get a pair of righties out.

That’s how I see the White Sox bullpen shaping up. Overall, it looks pretty nasty and should be one of the top bullpens in the American League in 2011.

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The Cincinnati Reds made some news this week when they signed Edgar Renteria to a one-year, $2.1 million contract. The deal also allows Renteria to make another $900,000 in incentives.

That’s a lot of boxes of ziti to give a guy who is at the end of the rope. That’s also a lot of boxes of ziti to give a guy who is going to split time with Paul Janish.

Reds manager Dusty Baker said after the Renteria signing that he and Janish would split time at SS in 2011. I know Baker loves his veterans like I love Snapple (for those of you who don’t know, I drink a Snapple a day without fail), but I don’t understand that at all.

Does Janish project to be the next Barry Larkin for the Reds? No, he doesn’t. However, Janish has made really good strides offensively over the last three seasons.

As you can see, Janish has improved in every category over the last three seasons. The guy is moving in the right direction.

I don’t see why Baker would mess with that. Janish is 28 years old; let him go out there and see what he can do on a full-time basis.

The signing of Renteria by the Reds was a factor of two things:

1. GM Walt Jocketty being familiar with Renteria from their days in St. Louis together

2. The Reds thinking Renteria has something left because of his ridiculous postseason last year with the San Francisco Giants.

And the second point is true. Renteria really did have an amazing postseason with the Giants—especially the World Series when he hit .416 with two HRs. However, he has shown major signs of slowing down offensively over the past three seasons.

Renteria’s 17.7 K Percentage in 2010 was the highest of his career and his .374 SLG wasn’t even equal or better than Janish’s. Also at this stage of his career, Renteria isn’t nearly the defensive player Janish is.

I really have no idea how Baker is going to split the playing time between Janish and Renteria in 2011, but if Renteria ends up playing more than Janish, it would be a mistake by Baker.

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“Now let’s make this an evening
Lovers for a night, lovers for tonight
Stay here with me, love, tonight
Just for an evening
When we make
Our passion pictures
You and me twist up
Secret creatures
And we’ll stay here
Tomorrow go back to being friends”

For those of you not familiar with those lyrics, they are from one of my favorite Dave Matthews songs, “Say Goodbye.” It’s a song about two friends, who decide one night to become lovers and then the next day go back to being friends.

If I had to compare the relationship between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago Cubs over the last couple of months, it would be very much like the Matthews’ song.

They met at a party and randomly became friends. They were friends for a bit, but all their friends knew they would eventually get together. Then after a night of some serious drinking and flirting, the two friends had a night Tommy Lee would have been proud of. The next morning they wake up and act as if nothing happened.

However, I think in this case, Cubs GM Jim Hendry woke up the next morning and said, what the heck did I just do?

The Rays and Cubs get together yesterday and completed a eight-player mega-deal that sent RHP Matt Garza, OF Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher to the Cubs and RHP Chris Archer, OF Brandon Guyer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak-Ju Lee and OF Sam Fuld.

There are a lot of components to this trade, so let’s take a look at each one individually.

Why the Rays Traded Away Garza

The Rays know if they are going to compete with the big pockets of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, they are going to have to constantly reload—not rebuild. Rebuilding is what the Baltimore Orioles are doing. Reloading is what the Rays are doing.

In order to reload, the Rays took their third or fourth best starter and traded him for three of the 10 best prospects in the Cubs’ farm system. The Rays still have David Price, James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson set for their rotation, so Garza was expendable.

That’s how you reload, kids.

And the Rays aren’t reloading for 2012 or 2013, they are reloading for 2011. A lot of people think the Rays are mailing it in for the 2011 season and that this year will be a “bridge” year for the Rays.

That is completely not the case.

Despite the losses of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and now Garza, the Rays will be right there with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2011. And if the Rays get a DH like Manny Ramirez (perfect fit) or a closer (maybe bring in Brian Fuentes or bring back Rafael Soriano), they will REALLY be right there with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2011.

Why the Cubs Traded for Garza

I am going to have to admit, the Cubs’ obsession with Garza is a little puzzling. He’s not a jabroni, but he’s not an ace either. Why the Cubs would trade three of their top prospects for a No. 3 starter doesn’t make much sense to me.

The Cubs already have a bunch of No. 2 or 3 starters in their rotation with Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Randy Wells, so why add another one? If you are going to trade that many prospects for a pitcher, then the guy better be a legit ace.

In his three seasons with the Rays, Garza had a 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, and averaged 197 innings per season. In the American League East, those are pretty good numbers.

My guess is that the Cubs are hoping that for the next three seasons (free agent after 2013), Garza takes those pretty good numbers in the AL East and turns them into great numbers in the weaker National League Central.

While pitching in a weaker division may be true, Garza will also be pitching in front of a much weaker defense. The Cubs fielded one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2010 and it looks as if that won’t improve much in 2011. Garza, a contact pitcher, could suffer because of this.

Even with the acquisition of Gazra, the Cubs are still the fourth best team in their division.

What the Rays Received from the Cubs

The Rays got quite a haul from the Cubs, so let’s take a look at what they got. Information is courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Chris Archer: The No. 3 ranked prospect in the Cubs organization, Archer has a fastball in the mid-90′s, but struggles with his control. Despite his control struggles at times, the 22-year-old dominated Double A batters in 2010 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA in 70.

He projects as a No. 3 starter or a power closer.

Hak-Ju Lee: The No. 5 ranked prospect in the Cubs system, Lee hit .282/.354/.351 at Low-A in 2010. He is a slick-fielding SS who has good speed, but lacks any power and doesn’t project to gain any.

By the time Lee is ready for the majors, the Rays will already know if Reid Brignac can cut the mustard at the position.

Brandon Guyer: The former University of Virginia Cavalier had a monster year at Double A in 2010. He hit .344/.398/.588 in 102 games.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old has solid speed also as he has stolen 60 bases in 70 attempts in the last two seasons. He projects as a fourth outfielder or a starter on a second-division team.

Robinson Chirinos: The 12th ranked prospect in the Cubs organization was converted from an infielder to a catcher. Chirinos hit .326/.416/.583 with 18 HR in just 92 games combined in Double A and Triple A.

Sam Fuld: Fuld is 29 years old and sounds more like my accountant than a Major League Baseball player. He is a roster filler at this point in his career.

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Can someone please tell the Washington Nationals they need starting pitching? Do they not realize that their No. 1 starter is Livan Hernandez?

I really have no idea what the Nationals game plan was or is this offseason. They have a garbage starting rotation, but go out and sign Jayson Werth to one of the more ridiculous contracts in baseball history. But then trade one of their few proven producers, Josh Willingham, to the Oakland A’s. Then they give Adam LaRoche a two-year contract and $15 million to play first base.

What?

They remind me of those Tampa Bay Devil Rays teams back in the late ’90s. Remember those teams? At a time when they should have gone young and try to build from within, they went out and spent on veteran hitters like Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff and Gregg Vaughn in order to excite their fanbase.

Much like the Nationals are doing now, the Devil Rays ignored improving their starting rotation and consistently finished in last place.  That’s where the Nationals are headed again in 2011.

I think LaRoche is a remarkably consistent player. He is almost a look for a .270 average and 25 HR every year. However, his cumulative WAR over the last three seasons is 6.4, which ranks him towards the bottom of Major League first basemen over that time period.

My point is that LaRoche is not going to help the Nationals win. LaRoche is the type of player where he is a good player on a bad team, but would be just a fringe player on a playoff caliber team. He is the offensive version of Brian Fuentes.

He might help the Nationals be somewhat “competitive,” but there is a difference between being competitive and winning. By the time the Nationals are a winning franchise (three to four years at a minimum), LaRoche will be gone and Werth will be a shell of his former self.

Plus, if they really want to be competitive—at least on the offensive side of the diamond—why not keep Willingham and go all in? Taking two steps forward and one step back on offense makes no sense to me.

Giving your fanbase false hope by signing veterans, so they think you are trying to win is not the way to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have tried that approach and look where it got them.

If the Nationals plan on winning sooner rather than later, they need to figure out a way to develop some pitching. If they don’t, they will be back in the same position they are now in five years.

That being a last place team.

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