Kuzul

The Boston Red Sox won the offseason, adding Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler to a team that was already capable of making a playoff run.

On Opening Day in Arlington, facing the defending American League champion Texas Rangers, all the attention was on the new faces in the lineup and bullpen. However, after falling to a 9-5 defeat, the blame fell squarely on two players who have been in Boston for years: Jon Lester and Daniel Bard.

Lester had a terrible outing in his first Opening Day start. He went just 5.1 innings and allowed five runs on six hits, including a career-high three home runs. Ian Kinsler led off the first with a no-doubter to left; Nelson Cruz (solo) and Mike Napoli (three-run HR) followed suit in the second and fourth, respectively.

Perhaps the most startling statistic in Lester’s pitching line was the zero in the K column. The AL leader in K/9 last season, it was only the second time in his career he had failed to strike out a batter.

When the perennial Cy Young candidate departed, the Sox trailed 5-4. Lester may have struggled, but the offense was very promising. Adrian Gonzalez had a brace of RBI singles, and Jacoby Ellsbury was electric in the leadoff spot, reaching base four times.

It got better in the top of the eighth. If there are three things we know about David Ortiz, they are these: he cannot hit lefties, he does not go the other way and he gets off to very slow starts.

So when he took Darren Oliver deep to left center, it was not only surprising, it was reassuring. Big Papi still has it.

His long ball knotted the game at five, and with Daniel Bard coming out of the pen, the Red Sox had reason to feel optimistic. Then their hopes—and Bard—fell to pieces.

The young righty had possibly the worst outing of his career. He walked Napoli, gave up a single to Yorvit Torrealba and then David Murphy laced a pinch-hit double off the foul line. Elvis Andrus and Josh Hamilton added RBI doubles of their own and Bard was pulled for Tim Wakefield.

Two-thirds of an inning, four hits, one walk, four runs, game over.

Boston could not recover in the ninth as Texas closer Neftali Feliz needed just 12 pitches to shut the door on the preseason AL favourites.

It is not time to panic just yet. There were a few good things to take from the game, but the most important was the reminder that you cannot win the Fall Classic in Winter.

If the Sox are to win an eighth world title, they need their ace to pitch like he can, especially with question marks surrounding John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Bard was the one sure thing about the relief corps entering the season, so Boston cannot afford to have any doubts about giving him the ball.

There are 161 regular season games remaining. Can the Red Sox win the World Series? Absolutely. Will they? With performances like that, it is doubtful.

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Hockey is known for fighting. Baseball is seen as more of a pastoral sport, played on a sunny afternoon in June. For a game with such similarities to cricket, that is perhaps not such a surprising thing. But the major leagues have seen their fair share of brawls over the years.

Disco Demolition Night and 10-cent Beer Night were not included, since they were more riots than brawls, and even if you counted the former as a fight, it was between the players and fans, rather than the two teams.

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The decision to award the 2010 Cy Young to Felix Hernandez was a historical aberration. His 13-12 record was by far the worst of any starting pitcher to win the award; his 12 losses were the most for any pitcher who failed to win 20 games.

That did not matter in the eyes of the voters, however. Had he worn a jersey reading “New York” rather than “Seattle,” he could have won close to 25 games, so good were his statistics other than his Win-Loss record.

Now, with Opening Day just over two weeks away, our attention turns to the 2011 award, and whether or not someone can dethrone King Felix.

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There is a general rule in baseball: you can have power or you can have speed. Many players can hit 30 home runs or steal 30 bases but very few break the rule and do both.

Lou Brock had the speed—he was the first to break Billy Hamilton’s stolen base record—but never had the power. Sammy Sosa hit 609 home runs but averaged just 13 steals a season.

Here is a list of 15 of the greatest players blessed with the rare combination of power and speed. With the exception of the top few, the players included were either home run hitters who were also pretty fast or speed guys who could swing for the fences.

Also mentioned are players who retired before 1920, so one does not know for sure how their power would translate to the current era.

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Baseball is, for the most part, an exact science.

That is why we can compare Tony Gwynn and Tris Speaker, even though 75 years passed between their respective debuts. We know that Speaker’s .345 average is still very comparable to Gwynn’s .338.

Of course the game has changed slightly. Speaker averaged 25 stolen bases a season, four more than Gwynn. But 25 steals was less impressive in the 1910s than 21 was 80 years later.

For the most part, however, the numbers have remained fairly constant, especially since the dead ball era came to an end in 1920.

Yet it is this exactness and consistency, which gives birth to the most inexact part of the sport: the Hall of Fame.

People will argue to their dying day that player X should make it and player Y should not. That is why it took Bert Blyleven and Jim Rice so long, and why people still fight for Luis Tiant. (In all seriousness, how is Catfish Hunter in Cooperstown when Tiant is not?)

HoF voting is painted in many shades of grey and there will never be a right answer. Bear in mind, there were people who did not vote for Willie Mays in 1979.

But whilst debating the merits of one player can be at once entertaining and infuriating, comparing two similar players can be even more so.

Enter Andy Pettitte. The longtime Yankee announced his retirement earlier this month and instantly sparked debate about his Cooperstown credentials. Even his most ardent supporter will admit that his regular season numbers are not good enough and that you have to look at the postseason to see his true value. The same argument is made for Curt Schilling.

The two have had quite similar careers. Although an incredibly inexact measurement, Baseball Reference’s “similar pitchers” section lists Pettitte as being most like David Wells, Kevin Brown and Bob Welch. It has Schilling as being most similar to Brown, Welch and Orel Hershiser. It is an awful tool for comparison, of course, but it is interesting, at least.

So let’s compare. Do either deserve a spot? (Incidentally, although Schilling retired in 2008, his last game was in ’07, so he will be eligible in 2013, three years before Pettitte.)

Invariably, the first stat everyone looks to is wins.

In 16 seasons, Pettitte went 240-138 for a .635 winning percentage.

In 20 seasons, Schilling was 216-146, a .597 winning percentage.

There will be those who will cry that neither is close to 300 wins, so neither deserves to make the Hall. The answer to their argument? Sandy Koufax. Yes, injury curtailed his career at just 12 seasons, but he only won 165 games. Anyone want to argue that he is not one of the greatest pitchers of all time?

Wins are a poor statistic. A pitcher has to rely too heavily on his teammates helping him out. If they cannot, his win-loss record will suffer, something known now as the Felix Hernandez Deficiency.

Curt Schilling played on some terrible Philadelphia teams in the ’90s. The Phillies had a winning record just once in his time with the franchise. Andy Pettitte on the other hand, was on a New York side about to become a dynasty. He debuted in 1995. The Yankees won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000, and won the AL pennant in 2001 and 2003.

Simply put, he got more help than Schilling ever did.

That is not to take anything away from Pettitte; he was a good pitcher, but he was never great. Look at his ERA.

Schilling had a sub-3.30 ERA nine times. Pettitte managed it four times. In seasons with at least 160 IP, Schilling accomplished it eight times to Pettitte’s two.

Over the course of their careers, it is closer, but Schilling still wins it 3.46 to 3.88.

In any case, neither player probably deserves a place in Cooperstown based on their regular season records. But then you look at the postseason. It was only after the calendar flipped to October that each made a name for himself.

Five-time champion Andy Pettitte won 19 games in the playoffs, more than any other pitcher in history. However, as has been established, wins are a poor indicator of a pitcher’s ability by themselves. Remember, Pettitte has pitched in a staggering 42 playoff games. His record of 19-10 is very good, but it is not incredible. Neither is his 3.83 postseason ERA.

Curt Schilling—who has three rings—is another matter. In 19 playoff starts, he went 11-2 with a 2.23 earned run average and a WHIP below one. Just give the man a plaque.

Both are borderline cases, but in almost every category, Schilling is closer to being HoF-worthy.

He deserves to be in the Hall. Pettitte just falls short. And then we reach the question of performance-enhancing drugs.

Andy Pettitte has admitted taking them and in the eyes of some, his honesty has exonerated him from the same blame and hatred that has befallen Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, et al. There will be others, though, who will never vote for him.

The issue might be moot, anyway. Although Pettitte is retired, there is a strong feeling that he will pull a Roger Clemens and return midseason.

Somebody warn Suzyn Waldman.

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Pressure does the strangest things to baseball players. Alex Rodriguez might end up hitting more home runs than anyone else in history, but he has struggled in October. Zack Greinke won the Cy Young in 2009 but would never pitch for a big-market team.

As we look forward to 2011, we can start to pinpoint those who will be under the most pressure. Players struggling to live up to big contracts, coming back from injury, playing for their reputation all make this list, and it only serves to remind us just how many good stories the upcoming season could have.

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As spring training rolls ever nearer, our attention begins to turn away from the big names, and we focus more on the minor leaguers, September call-ups and young players who could compete for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

With that in mind, here is a quick rundown of 15 players who might find themselves starting 2011 in the majors.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland

Kipnis played his first year in the minors in the outfield but made the move to second base in 2010. It is the swiftness with which he has been able to adjust to the new position that has impressed the Indians, and with his bat nearly MLB-ready, he could find himself in The Show in 2011.

Jed Lowrie, Boston

Lowrie has been injured almost his entire time in Boston and until the end of 2010 had not really shown anything to impress people. However, he hit nine home runs down the stretch, and if he is healthy he could steal the starting job from Marco Scutaro.

A good spring could make him trade bait with Jose Iglesias waiting in the wings in the Sox’ system.

Ryan Kalish, Boston

The Red Sox will not want to bring him up to the majors to warm the bench, but with Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron recovering from injuries, it is not too fanciful an idea that Kalish could find some playing time in the bigs.

Jordan Lyles, Houston

Lyles has risen through the minors quickly, skipping High-A and finishing the season in Triple-A. With an invite to spring training, he could compete for the fifth spot in Houston’s rotation.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco

The biggest thing in Belt’s favour is his versatility. He can play both corner outfield positions and first base. The most likely scenario is that he plays in the minors to begin the year and is called up around late May or June. GM Brian Sabean has said if Belt does not win a starting job, he will go back to the minors, as the world champions do not want him to waste time on the bench.

J.P. Arencibia, Toronto

Arencibia may actually be the favourite to land the starting job behind the plate despite a weak September last season. On August 7 he became the first player since 1900 to hit two home runs and collect four hits in his debut, but after that, he struggled. He drove in just one more run, going 1-for-30.

Matt Rizzotti, Philadelphia

Rizzotti is another fast-rising prospect, going from High-A to Triple-A in 2010. While he struggled at the higher level, batting .200, he was great at Double-A, where he hit .361 with 16 homers.

Justin De Fratus, Philadelphia

De Fratus spent 2011 entirely in the bullpen and posted the best numbers of his career. In High-A and Double-A he struck out more than a batter an inning and a sub-two ERA. There will be a few spots available at the back end of the Phillies’ pen, and with a strong spring, he could be in with a shout.

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta

After a September call-up, he batted just .167 with only two extra-base hits in 20 games. However, he hit .319 with 18 home runs at Triple-A Gwinnett, and the Braves are expecting big things of him.

A great season would be a historical oddity, as only half a dozen rookies 21 or younger have played a full season at first base in the modern era.

Chris Sale, Chicago (NL)

The biggest question regarding Sale is not whether he will make the team; it is what will his role be. He was drafted as a starter but has been used in the bullpen in the minors and his 21-appearance spell in the majors last season.

He could remain a reliever in 2011, but if any of the White Sox’ starters struggle with injury at the beginning of the year, Sale could find himself making up their starts in the rotation. He had a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in the majors in 2010.

Ivan Nova, New York (AL)

With the Yankees’ rotation still up in the air, there is a good chance Nova could wind up starting for the Bombers in 2011. He started seven games last season, making his debut in May. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and 1.452 WHIP—not great numbers, but they were solid. In Triple-A, he has posted a 2.86 ERA, and with New York’s starting five a couple of pitchers light, Nova seems to make the most sense.

Jesus Montero, New York (AL)

Montero got off to a terrible start to 2010 but wound up with a .351/.396/.684 line in the second half at Triple-A. He has a big upside offensively, and whilst there are defensive concerns, he might be the best catching prospect in the minors.

The Yankees do have a number of young catchers coming up through the ranks, such as Gary Sanchez, Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine. They may trade Montero, and that might be the best thing for him, as the Yanks’ system is full of catchers and he is ready for a shot at the bigs.

Juan Francisco, Cincinnati

After making 55 plate appearances last season, Francisco is no longer a rookie, but with just 50 MLB games under his belt, he might as well be. A.316 BA in his spells in the last two seasons is very promising, and he was having a great performance in the Dominican League before injuring his leg.

He will be healthy for spring training and could compete for a role, but it will be tough with Yonder Alonso, Chris Valaika and Chris Heisey all fighting for spots on the Opening Day roster.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay

Hellickson finally made his MLB debut last year and pitched well. In 10 appearances (four starts, six relief) he posted a very good 3.47 ERA. With their roster being picked apart in the offseason, Tampa will need to turn to younger players in their system, and Hellickson is likely to get a shot.

Chris Carter, Oakland

After a few solid years in the minors, Carter made it to the majors last season. He struggled, batting .186 in 24 games, but with averages over .300 in Double-A and .260 in Triple-A, there are still high hopes for the 24-year-old.

The Athletics have the youngest team in Major League Baseball, and one never knows how young players will perform, so a good spring could see Carter back in the bigs at the beginning of the season.

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With Boston’s offseason spending spree and Tampa Bay’s everything-must-go jumble sale, one can make a pretty good stab at how the AL East will play out in 2011.

The Yankees and Red Sox will fight it out for the top spot, the Blue Jays and Rays will compete for third and fourth and the Orioles will still languish at the bottom.

Obviously, any of the bottom three could make a run to the postseason as the Rays did in 2008, but it would be a staggering turnaround.

At first glance, this article may appear overloaded with players from Boston and New York but bear in mind, there is a simple reason they will be the favorites for the AL pennant: they have the best players.

If the O’s had more players on this list, they would not have had 13 consecutive losing seasons.

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Cast your minds back two years. Philadelphia had just won the World Series; New York had finished third in the AL East; CC Sabathia was a hero in Milwaukee; Cincinnati, San Diego and Atlanta were irrelevant and Angels slugger Mark Teixeira was about to sign a blockbuster deal with Boston.

How things have changed.

Seemingly from nowhere, the Yankees reminded everyone why they were the Yankees and signed Teixeira to an eight-year/$180m deal. They also landed Sabathia and AJ Burnett, although they might like to forget about the latter.

18 months later, the new-look bombers were the World Champions; the Reds, Padres and Braves were amongst the best teams in baseball and Boston was desperately patching their team together with Minor Leaguers.

Losing Teixeira – especially after being so close to landing him – was a cataclysmic blow for the Red Sox and, in particular, the ownership and front office. It made Red Sox Nation doubt John Henry’s willingness to spend the money and further mistrust Theo Epstein’s ability to handle the free agent market.

Now, it looks as if all is well in Boston – at first base, at least.

With Adrian Gonzalez donning a Boston uniform in 2011, the Red Sox have gotten back much of what they lost in Teixeira.

Next year looks like it could be another great one in the storied Sox-Yanks rivalry. And when people compare the teams, they will focus specifically on first base.

It is reported that Boston and Gonzalez have reached an agreement on a seven-year extension worth $154 million. If that is the case, we will not find out until April, so that the Red Sox can avoid the luxury tax. For the sake of argument, and in the absence of any other figure, let’s go with that.

With both teams set up at the position for at least six years with very similar players, the question will be: who is better? And by extension, did it all work out better in the end for the Sox?

Let’s start with the basics: Both are multiple-Gold Glove-winning first basemen, with the ability to hit for both average and power, playing in ballparks very well-suited to their respective swings.

Teixeira will be 31 next season, Gonzalez will be 29, so both were 28 when they were acquired by their respective teams.

Both will have eight-year contracts, but Adrian will average $20m a year whilst his pinstriped colleague will make $22.5m. Slight difference, but it does add up to a rather significant $20 million over the life of the deal.

As for the numbers, they are very close to one another. Teixeira has played three more years at the Major League level and each season has been outstanding. In his last seven seasons he has clocked up 30 HRs and 100 RBIs and has finished in the top 20 in the MVP race five times. Last year, he had the worst average of his career, hitting .256, but he still slugged 33 homers and collected 108 ribbies.

In the last four years, Gonzalez has averaged 161 games, 34 HRs, 105 RBIs and a .284/.377/.517 line.

Over the same span, Teixeira has averaged 151 GP, 34 HRs, 114 RBIs and a .290/.389/.539 line.

Remarkably similar stats, but then we get to the biggest plus for Adrian Gonzalez.

Whilst Teixeira was putting those up those numbers (for the last two years in particular) in good hitting parks, Gonzalez has been playing at Petco, which is renowned for being incredibly pitcher-friendly.

Also, he was batting in a lineup of weak hitters, unlike Tex. Frankly, if anyone batting cleanup for the New York Yankees does not drive in 100 runs, he should be in the Minors.

The last two seasons, Gonzalez’ OPS+ (which is adjusted to account for the ballparks in which they play) is 157. Teixeira’s is 133.

One big plus for Tex is that he is a switch hitter. He would have been wonderfully suited to Fenway Park. However, he is also well-built for the sandbox that is New Yankee Stadium. If one were to move him to the Fens, his numbers would be very similar.

Adrian Gonzalez on the other hand, has put up very comparable stats in Petco. Move him to Fenway – as a left-handed hitter with great opposite-field power – and his numbers could improve drastically.

In all fairness, it is very hard to choose between the two, especially when we are yet to see Gonzalez play in his new stadium.

However, if his offense improves to the degree most people expect, one would have to say that it all worked out for the best for the Red Sox.

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With the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego solving the problems at first and third, there are only two positions left for the front office to address: catcher and left field.

GM Theo Epstein might be happy with Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate with returning captain Jason Varitek serving as the backup, but he will not be happy with the outfield situation. JD Drew and Mike Cameron are in the last years of their contracts and Jacoby Ellsbury is floating about between left and center.

Ideally, the Red Sox need someone to play left and free agent Carl Crawford is not only the best fit, but will likely the best outfielder to hit the market for the foreseeable future. Still, there are doubts about him.

So, here are the reasons he would work as a Red Sox and the reasons he would not.

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