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Surprisingly, the 2015 Major League Baseball winter meetings have yielded very little results on the free-agent market. There have been some deals, mostly involving relief pitchers, but everyone seems to be waiting for the one big shoe to drop. 

The market for starting pitchers has already been set with David Price and Zack Greinke, the two best players available regardless of position, signing with the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks before the baseball world converged on Nashville, Tennessee. 

Position players have been a different story as two full days passed with no action, despite having players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon available. 

Looking into the crystal ball, Wednesday has to yield major results because teams are quick to leave the winter meetings following the Rule 5 draft on Thursday morning. 

The rumor mill is churning out a lot of information about available players, so here’s the latest rumors and predictions for where they will end up. 

West Coast Suitor for Justin Upton

After spending last season with the San Diego Padres, Justin Upton is attracting the attention of another California-based team. 

According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Los Angeles Angels were having “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. In typical rumor fashion, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that there was “currently nothing happening” between the Angels and Upton. 

The Angels have also been linked to Yoenis Cespedes, though that sounds less optimistic than Upton, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News:

Left field was a void for the Angels in 2015, as the group hit a collective .216/.275/.317 with 34 extra-base hits in 556 at-bats, so either Upton or Cespedes would be massive upgrades at the position offensively.

Upton does feel more likely to remain on the Angels’ radar because he should come at a lower cost than Cespedes, who has already said he wants a six-year contract.  

It would also benefit the Angels to go after Upton because he’s two years younger than Cespedes, making him more likely to hold value throughout a long-term deal. 

While Upton’s stock may be down after he hit just .251/.336/.454 with the Padres last year, he was playing half of his games in Petco Park and other National League West stadiums, like Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park, are not exactly hitter-friendly. 

One key note for the Angels is their payroll flexibility is very favorable moving forward. They have $134 million in commitments for 2016, but that figure drops to $91.9 million in 2017 when players like C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver come off the books.

With Mike Trout signed through 2020, the Angels have to strike while their window is open. Upton is a perfect upside play this offseason, because he’s hit at least 26 home runs each of the past three seasons with some room to grow. 

Prediction: Upton signs with Angels for five years, $110 million.

Chris Davis’ Price Set

While the market for Chris Davis hasn’t come together yet, agent Scott Boras isn’t shying away from setting the price sky high. 

According to George A. King III of the New York Post, citing a source when the New York Yankees were thought to have interest in the slugging first baseman, “he wants [Mark] Teixeira money.”

As a refresher, Teixeira money equates to $180 million over eight years. While that does sound exorbitant, especially given how injuries have limited Teixeira the past four years, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted Davis would receive a deal with more average annual money (six years, $144 million). 

Plus, Boras is a master negotiator who rarely settles for less than what he believes his clients to be worth. That can lead to prolonged negotiations. Remember when Prince Fielder seemed to have no market in 2011, then Victor Martinez got hurt and the Detroit Tigers put up $214 million for nine years?

The Baltimore Orioles continue to hang around Davis, with Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reporting the team met with Boras on Tuesday to discuss the All-Star first baseman.

Kubatko did note in the same report that Pedro Alvarez, who is a free agent after being non-tenedered by the Pittsburgh Pirates, is also represented by Boras. He could be a fallback plan for the Orioles in the event Davis signs elsewhere. 

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun did report that the Orioles are not likely to make the biggest offer to Davis:

One source said that the organization would not be comfortable agreeing to a $150-175 million deal with Davis, which seems like it could be the market range.

Yet, sources also say the Orioles believe they have a fighting chance to retain Davis — and that’s where the hometown discount will have to come in.

Davis’ market likely doesn’t open up until players like Cespedes and Upton are off the market, so his options right now aren’t clear. 

Yet even trying to sort things out, what teams can pay that much for a first baseman? The St. Louis Cardinals can use the offense, but general manager John Mozeliak already told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that his team’s interest is “overblown.”

These things can—and do—change in a hurry, but Baltimore has to be considered the favorite by virtue of being the only club that has shown any significant interest thus far. 

Prediction: Davis re-signs with Baltimore for five years, $115 million.

Giants Searching for OF Help

With the new year approaching, the San Francisco Giants are planning to make some tweaks to ensure they keep their streak of championships in even years alive. 

According to Morosi on Twitter, the Giants have spoken to “several outfielders,” but the team has a preference of Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward or Dexter Fowler over Cespedes and Upton “due to defense.”

Gordon and Fowler make sense for the Giants because they need a left fielder. Fowler has played center field throughout his career, but FanGraphs‘ defensive metrics have him rated as the least valuable player at the position and his minus-57 defensive runs saved is better than only Matt Kemp since 2009. 

Moving Fowler to left field at AT&T Park, which has a massive outfield, will help hide his deficiencies with the glove. 

Gordon is a tremendous defender in left field, with positive defensive runs saved totals every year since 2010, and knows how to handle a big outfield coming from Kauffman Stadium. 

Gordon has been the superior offensive player since 2010, posting nearly 38 more points of offensive value by FanGraphs metrics, but Fowler does have a slightly higher on-base percentage (.364 to .355). 

It helps Fowler’s negotiating power that he’s two years younger than Gordon, who is also coming off a season in which he played just 104 games due to a groin injury. 

Since Morosi noted the Giants were looking at outfielders for their defense, Gordon seems like a better option for the team. If they want to take on a younger player more likely to maintain value over the course of a deal, Fowler is the option. 

Prediction: Giants sign Gordon for four years, $72 million.

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The 2015 Major League Baseball Rule 5 draft, being held Thursday at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee, is not likely to churn out a future superstar or MVP candidate, but there are always diamonds found in the rough from the minor league scrapheap.   

Josh Hamilton is the most famous Rule 5 draftee of the last decade, being selected by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006. The first overall pick in the 1999 draft, Hamilton worked his way back from rock bottom to have a three-year stretch as one of the most dominant hitters in baseball. 

MLB rule changes since 2006 have made it more difficult to find impact talent because players are kept under control of a franchise for an extra year before teams must decide whether to protect them on the 40-man roster. 

As you would expect, the longer a player is under team control, the more time he has to determine how much of a role he will have in the future. Age is also a big factor because a player who is 22 or 23 has a better opportunity to turn into something than a player who is 24 or 25. 

Teams are not obligated to make a selection, and most likely won’t. Once a team skips its selection, it can’t make a pick if the draft goes into Rounds 2, 3, etc. 

With a limited talent pool to choose from, teams must be more diligent while trying to find a player capable of holding down a 25-man roster spot so that the selection in the Rule 5 draft bears some fruit. 

Top Prospects Available

Corey Black, RHP (Current Team: Chicago Cubs)

When the New York Yankees picked Corey Black in the 2012 draft, odds were working against him to be a starting pitcher by virtue of his being an undersized right-hander.    

The 5’11”, 175-pounder finally shifted to the bullpen in 2015 with 28 relief appearances (37 games), posting a terrific 101 strikeouts in 86 innings. 

That is indicative of the power stuff Black brings to the table. MLB.com’s scouting report noted the pitcher has hit 100 mph with “riding effort” and has a “mid-80s slider” to go along with it. The report added he has a deep arsenal, which is necessary to start, but is “destined to become a reliever because there’s effort in his crossfire delivery and he lacks control and command.”

The last part is relevant for why Black has been unable to get past Double-A despite being a college draftee with three years of professional experience. Along with his 101 strikeouts last year, Black had 47 walks. In 370.2 minor league innings, he’s issued 188 free passes. 

Black’s erratic control and command are going to limit his ultimate ceiling because his power stuff is what every team hopes to find in a closer or high-leverage reliever.

He could get integrated into the big leagues as a swing man who works multiple innings at a time or as a sixth- or seventh-inning arm to see if his control will get better with consistent work at the highest level. 

Teoscar Hernandez, OF (Current Team: Houston Astros)

Teoscar Hernandez is unlikely to be drafted on Thursday by virtue of having played one bad full season at Double-A in which he hit .219/.275/.362 in 121 games, but there is a lot to dream on with the 23-year-old. 

For instance, Hernandez had 33 stolen bases and 17 home runs. He’s a great-looking athlete at 6’2″ and 180 pounds with the kind of tools that aren’t often found in a Rule 5 prospect. 

MLB.com grades Hernandez as having four average or better tools (power, run, arm, defense) while also highlighting what may be a fatal flaw in his package:

Hernandez stands out for his athleticism and power-speed combination. If he can develop more feel at the plate, he has the potential to become a five-tool player. To do so, he’ll need to refine his pitch recognition and cut down on his strikeouts after whiffing in a quarter of his plate appearances during his first two years of full-season ball. 

Hernandez is not ready for the big leagues, which is why the Rule 5 draft is problematic for a player like him. It requires players to be on the 25-man rosters out of spring training, or else they go back to their previous teams. 

Yet just from a tools and prospect level, Hernandez is as impressive as any player who wasn’t kept on a 40-man roster this offseason. As long as Hernandez maintains his speed and defensive profile, he projects as a solid center fielder. 

Hernandez has to develop his hit tool. But the offensive bar for center field is lower than a corner spot, so it’s plausible to think the Dominican Republic native can be in the big leagues late next season with a few adjustments. 

Onelki Garcia, LHP (Current Team: Chicago White Sox)

If I were to bet on one player from the Rule 5 draft sticking in MLB when next season starts, it would be Onelki Garcia. 

Admittedly, that’s something of a cheat because Garcia already tasted the big leagues in 2013. He pitched 1.1 innings over three games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing four walks and two earned runs. 

There is also another reason to think Garcia will catch on as a reliever out of spring training: He’s left-handed. He’s not the only southpaw available—Reymin Guduan and Sam Selman are other prominent lefties up for grabs—but his advantage over them is having already reached the highest level. 

As noted by MLB.com, Garcia also has the necessary ingredients to become an impact reliever: “His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and seems quicker coming out of his deliberate delivery. He throws two versions of a curveball, a hard breaker that reaches the low 80s and gets swings and misses, and a mid-70s bender that he can locate for strikes.”

Last year was a disappointing effort from Garcia, as he posted a 4.82 ERA with 64 hits allowed and 29 walks in 56 innings. The power arsenal was on display with 72 strikeouts, but the command around the zone has to improve to make his stuff work. 

There’s not a perfect player available in the Rule 5 draft, so teams have to be opportunistic. Garcia is the best of the lot because of his two-pitch mix, being left-handed and brief MLB experience. He may not be the first player taken, but his impact will be the greatest in 2016. 

Stats and measurables courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Atlanta Braves continue to make the long-term future their focus after trading Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. 

It’s been no secret that the Braves are trying to build for the future. They have already traded Andrelton Simmons to the Los Angeles Angels this offseason, so general manager John Coppolella left no doubt the “For Sale” sign was on the front yard. 

Fortunately for the Braves, Coppolella didn’t sell short on Miller. He got a tremendous haul for Miller, who was coming off his best season in the big leagues with a 3.02 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 205.1 innings pitched. 

Inciarte, who has five years of team control left, is the only player with big league experience Arizona got back. He’s a unique player because his value is tied so heavily into his outfield defense, though he has at least 547 innings at all three positions since 2014. 

The question for Inciarte will be if he can keep his hitting stats up moving away from hitter-friendly Chase Field, where his career OPS is 120 points higher (.781) than on the road (.661). 

Because of the Braves’ plan for the future, Swanson and Blair are the two keys to the deal. Here is what they are bringing to Atlanta’s system. 

Dansby Swanson

Swanson is the name fans will know by virtue of being the first pick in June’s draft. He was also on the national stage during the last two College World Series with Vanderbilt. 

Prior to 2014, Swanson was a disappointing player for the Commodores because injuries kept him off the field. He suffered a broken bone in his left foot and suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder that limited him to 11 games in 2013. 

Swanson has remained healthy the last two years, playing in 143 games, and has done nothing but hit, with 78 extra-base hits and a strong 108-84 strikeout-to-walk total against mostly SEC competition. 

In his scouting profile, Andrew Simon of MLB.com graded Swanson out with four above-average-to-plus tools (hit, run, arm field) and praised his work ethic:

Most scouts believe he has the quickness and arm strength to stay at the position (shortstop) long term, even though he hadn’t played there since he was a Georgia high schooler in 2012, when the Rockies drafted him in the 38th round. Swanson is a technically sound hitter who fits at the top of his lineup with his on-base ability and speed. While he’s not a big home run threat, he can drive the ball into the gaps. His makeup is off the charts and universally praised by coaches and scouts.

Swanson is currently ranked 10th on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects list. He doesn’t have one elite-level tool, but he is one of those players who does everything well. 

Given Swanson’s strong work ethic and present speed, he’s got a chance to stay at shortstop. Eric Longenhagen of ESPN.com had no concerns about his ability to stick there while also offering a strong package of tools while acknowledging one potential flaw.

“He’s going to get on base, swipe some bags and hit for power while playing solid defense at shortstop despite an average arm,” Longenhagen wrote. “He should move quickly, though don’t be surprised if he swings and misses a bit.”

Even if there’s some minor concern about Swanson’s contact rate, the replacement value for shortstops is so low that a potentially average defender with a good eye at the plate is going to be a solid regular for a long time. 

Aaron Blair

Inciarte could be joined on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster by Blair, who spent half of last year with Triple-A Reno and posted very good numbers—3.16 ERA, 67 hits allowed in 77 innings—especially considering the Pacific Coast League is a hitting paradise. 

Blair, who was taken out of Marshall by the Diamondbacks 36th overall in 2013, is not an overpowering pitcher. He did have more strikeouts (171) than innings pitched (154.1) in 2014 largely because he was a polished college pitcher going against mostly younger, unpolished hitters in A-ball. 

Last year, Blair finished with 120 strikeouts in 160.1 innings pitched over 26 appearances (25 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A. His best asset is being able to induce weak contact and changing speed, as evidenced by the 137 hits allowed. 

MLB.com has Blair listed No. 61 on the Top 100 Prospects list based largely on the quality of his stuff:

Blair’s above-average fastball will touch at least 95 mph, sitting in the low 90s, with good running movement. He has very good feel for a mid-80s changeup and his curveball has improved and could be better than Major League average when all is said and done. Scouts like how quickly Blair works and he goes right after hitters. As effective as Blair was at missing bats in 2014, he also didn’t hurt himself with walks.

Blair doesn’t have outstanding control, though it is solid. MLB.com grades it as average (50) on the 20-80 scouting scale. He can get wild at times around the zone and hitters at the MLB level will be able to lay off close pitches or drive balls to the fence that minor leaguers can’t get to. 

The ultimate ceiling for Blair is a No. 3 starter as long as he can refine his command, but in a worst-case scenario, he’s probably a No. 4 or No. 5. Given how often he’s around the strike zone, it’s not hard to see him reaching that ceiling, though there will be growing pains with the Braves when he initially gets brought up. 

Final Thoughts

Considering Miller’s advanced numbers on FanGraphs (3.45 FIP, 4.07 xFIP) are substantially higher than his 2015 ERA, he’s had problems finding the strike zone at times with 73 walks in each of the last two seasons and he’s moving to a hitter-friendly park in Arizona, the Braves did very well in this deal. 

Swanson and Blair ranked No. 1 and 3 on MLB.com’s Top 30 Prospects list for the Diamondbacks, and at worst Inciarte is an elite defensive outfielder who will hit enough to be worth one or two wins per season. 

There are flaws with all of the players Atlanta got back in the deal, but the total package is very good considering Blair is nearly MLB ready, and Swanson can be a starting shortstop at the highest level before the 2017 All-Star break who is under team control for six full seasons after that. 

Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted

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Adding depth to their catching stable, the Atlanta Braves agreed to a deal with veteran Tyler Flowers on Tuesday.    

According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Flowers’ deal with the Braves is for $5 million through 2017 with a $4 million option for 2018. 

With A.J. Pierzynski also signed to a deal this offseason, Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted this doesn’t bode well for Christian Bethancourt:

The 29-year-old Flowers has played his entire Major League Baseball career with the Chicago White Sox. His calling card is strong defense behind the plate, with StatCorner rating him as the No. 2 overall catcher with 22.5 runs above average and eighth in strike percentage called outside of the zone (9.9). 

Flowers doesn’t offer a lot with the bat, owning a career slash line of .223/.289/.376, but the value he adds behind the plate is difficult to find. He’s also going back to the first professional organization he ever knew, as the Braves made him a 33rd-round pick in 2005. 

The Braves dealt Flowers to the White Sox in 2008 as part of the package that brought Javier Vazquez to Atlanta.

Even though the front office has undergone some changes in the seven years since, current Braves general manager John Coppolella has been with the team since after the 2006 season and likely knows what Flowers brings to the table. 

While the Braves are building for the future, it’s always crucial to have an experienced catcher who can work with young pitchers and help develop them. Flowers will be a piece of their development plan for the next two years. 

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The Cincinnati Reds appeared to have taken another step toward rebuilding their franchise by trading closer Aroldis Chapman to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, reported Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Rosenthal noted at the time the Dodgers planned to send two prospects to the Reds in return for Chapman.

However later on Monday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, citing sources, reported that the deal wasn’t done yet, adding that “multiple teams could be involved.” Sheldon clarified that “others could be in the mix” to land Chapman. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com added the Reds were telling teams they hadn’t agreed to trade the closer to Los Angeles.

Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports later reported the reason the trade didn’t go through was due to the discovery of an incident where Chapman “allegedly fired eight gunshots in the garage of his Miami-area home following an October argument with his girlfriend in which she told police he ‘choked’ her and pushed her against a wall.” No arrests were made, per Brown and Passan, who obtained the police report. 

Reds President of Baseball Operations Walt Jocketty later said any trade involving Chapman could take “several weeks,” per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, who added a trade with the Dodgers isn’t dead. 

Chapman’s name has been floated as possibly being available dating back to last offseason, when Rosenthal claimed the Reds were looking to cut approximately $17 million from their payroll.    

As the trade deadline approached last summer, ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney reported the Reds were “examining offers” for Chapman while adding it wasn’t clear if the team was inclined to push through on a deal. Nothing ever came of those rumors, but Chapman was the one big domino Reds general manager Walt Jocketty needed to fall after dealing Johnny Cueto to the Kansas City Royals and Mike Leake to the San Francisco Giants last July.

At the general manager meetings in November, Rosenthal wrote the Reds were “finally” serious about their willingness to trade Chapman and relayed an enlightening quote from Jocketty about where the franchise stands heading into 2016.

“We still wanted to be somewhat protective of our club last year,” Jocketty said. “We had certain guys we just didn’t want to move. We started at the deadline knowing that we would gear up—’16 would be a transition year, and in ’17 and ’18, we think we could be stronger and more competitive.”

Chapman has just one more year of team control before becoming a free agent, so Los Angeles could be getting a rental in this deal. However, that one season will probably come at a steep financial cost, as Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com estimated Chapman can earn $12.9 million in his final season of arbitration.

While that is an expensive price tag for a reliever, Chapman is also one of the few closers who can completely transform a bullpen.

He has been as dominant as any reliever since making his MLB debut in 2010. The flame-throwing left-hander posted a 2.17 ERA with 546 strikeouts in 319 innings in his first six seasons.

The 27-year-old was more erratic in 2015 than in previous years, with a walk rate of 4.5 per nine innings, but his stuff remains just as good, as evidenced by his nearly 16 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.63 ERA.

If the trade goes through, it would set up an interesting situation in the back of the Dodgers bullpen. Kenley Jansen was solid in the role last year, finishing 2-1 with 36 saves and posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 80 strikeouts in 52.1 innings pitched. But with Chapman, the Dodgers would likely move Jansen to the setup role.

Upsetting the balance of a bullpen can be a risky game to play. The Washington Nationals, for example, acquired Jonathan Papelbon last year, moving Drew Storen to the setup role after he saved 29 of his first 31 opportunities that season. Storen was never pleased with the role, and his numbers nosedived down the stretch.

Of course, elite relievers, especially closers, with the kind of video game numbers Chapman has posted throughout his career are always in demand because teams understand more than ever the value of a great bullpen. 

However, after today’s news the future of Chapman has now become a rather complicated situation. 

Stats and contract info courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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After four years with the Seattle Mariners, Hisashi Iwakuma will reportedly be suiting up for the Los Angeles Dodgers when the 2016 season starts.

ESPN’s Jim Bowden first reported the news Sunday, and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman later confirmed it, adding that it’s a three-year agreement for $45 million.

Iwakuma has been one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball when healthy:

The one big drawback through Iwakuma’s first four seasons has been his durability, though. He’s hit the 180-inning mark only once, which was when he finished third in American League Cy Young voting (2013). 

Iwakuma’s 129.2 innings in 2015 were the second-lowest total of his MLB career, while his 20 appearances were the fewest he has ever made. He is 34 years old, so durability could become an even bigger question going forward.

However, as former Grantland writer Michael Baumann noted after Iwakuma threw a no-hitter against Baltimore in August, the right-hander’s strong second half does point to big things ahead:

Iwakuma is like the contrapositive of Clayton Kershaw. Instead of “How does anyone hit this guy?” it’s “How does everyone not hit this guy?” But they often don’t, and they certainly didn’t on Wednesday, and there are, as always, larger implications as a result. This no-hitter is further proof that, when healthy, Iwakuma is still the pitcher he was in previous years. It doesn’t prove that on its own, but he’s now gone eight or more innings and allowed one run or fewer in three of his past seven starts, and has pitched well in three of the other four. 

Because Iwakuma has never had overpowering stuff, instead relying on command and movement, he’s likely to age better than many pitchers. He may not be a Cy Young contender again, but there’s no reason to think he can’t perform well for the life of his contract.

After the Dodgers lost out on Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks, it was clear the team would be aggressive in trying to secure a top-tier talent to replace him. While Iwakuma is a respectable signing, the Dodgers will continue to search for another ace. 

However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angles Times noted the older Iwakuma has thrown less innings in his career than Greinke: 

Although Shaikin did poke holes in the Dodgers’ logic in reportedly signing Iwakuma through the age of 37:

Iwakuma was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball during his four-year stint in Seattle. He’s a tremendous asset, especially for a team that’s seeking high-quality depth, and will prove it over the next three years.

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Major League Baseball’s annual offseason extravaganza known as the winter meetings will begin Monday in Nashville, Tennessee, with all 30 teams seeking to upgrade their roster for 2016 and beyond through trades and/or free-agent signings. 

The four-day event is when most of the major free agents will find a new home. David Price got an early start among the marquee players available, signing a record-breaking $217 million deal with the Boston Red Sox on Friday. 

Even with Price off the market, this year’s free-agent crop is so deep that it won’t take any attention away from what happens this week as the unofficial start of baseball in 2016 begins. 

The Mets’ Game Plan

Of the many dominoes that will fall in Nashville, arguably the most fascinating involves the reigning National League champion New York Mets. 

The Mets were vastly improved on offense at the end of last year, leading the NL in runs scored in the second half after calling up Michael Conforto, trading for Yoenis Cespedes and getting David Wright back healthy. 

Unfortunately, Cespedes is a free agent who will be too expensive for the Mets, and Wright’s health is a three-year concern because he hasn’t played in more than 134 games in a season since 2012.

New York’s front office has to find at least one hitter this offseason to support what may be the deepest and most dominant pitching staff in baseball. 

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, two big names are on the Mets’ radar, albeit with one taking precedent over the other:

When choosing between Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler, Zobrist is the better player thanks in large part to his ability handle any position on the field except pitcher and catcher. 

Fowler isn’t a slouch, especially considering he will only turn 30 in March and owns a .363 career on-base percentage, but he will likely have to move to a corner outfield spot. He’s been a dreadful defensive center fielder throughout his career, costing his team 56 defensive runs, per FanGraphs.

When Fowler eventually does move to a corner position, his .418 career slugging percentage looks a lot worse. 

The Mets reportedly won’t go to four years on a deal for Zobrist, according to ESPN’s Adam Rubin. That could turn into a problem because Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the feeling among Zobrist’s suitors is he could be looking at a deal worth at least $60 million over four years. 

Zobrist would be a perfect addition for the Mets, who also stand to lose playoff hero Daniel Murphy to free agency. Given the team’s need, it would be an upset if Zobrist didn’t end up playing in Queens.

Prediction: Mets sign Zobrist to a four-year, $64 million deal.

The Chapman Situation

It feels like a matter of when, not if, the Cincinnati Reds trade All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman. The flamethrower has been a hot topic of conversation dating back to July’s trade deadline. In mid-November, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com cited four people saying Chapman would be traded by the “end of the weekend.”

Yet here we are—Chapman remains a member of the Reds, and the speculation continues. This is the week when Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty is going to deal the Cuban star, if he finally gets a deal to his liking.

The most intriguing match for Chapman and the Reds are the Houston Astros, who have the southpaw atop their wish list, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. 

The Astros were undone in the American League Division Series against Kansas City because they have a bullpen comprised of strike throwers who don’t have overpowering stuff. 

Chapman doesn’t do anything but miss bats, striking out 15.4 hitters per nine innings in his career with at least 100 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons. It’s a perfect marriage of player and team, especially with the Astros’ young talent making an impact well ahead of schedule. 

There are two problems for Houston in this scenario, however: money and prospects. Because of Chapman’s success since arriving in 2010, he’s going to be an expensive closer. Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com estimates he will get $12.9 million in arbitration next season. 

To put Chapman’s projected salary in perspective, per Spotrac, Boston’s Craig Kimbrel is currently MLB‘s highest-paid closer with a 2016 salary of $11.25 million. 

The upside for Houston is Chapman has just one more season of control, so the team can get out from that salary after next year if it doesn’t want to devote so much of its payroll to a pitcher who, as great as he is, will only throw 60-70 innings. 

That’s also part of Chapman’s downside, because the Reds will have a high price tag on him to make a deal. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the Red Sox inquired about Chapman before striking a deal with San Diego for Kimbrel.

“The Reds listened to Boston’s pitch for Chapman but required more than the Red Sox offered for Kimbrel, and the Sox weren’t comfortable going the extra mile for a pitcher who can become a free agent after 2016,” Cafardo wrote.

No one denies that Chapman is fantastic, but the Reds asking for more than two top-100 prospects and two other low-level talents, which is what San Diego got from Boston, for a reliever with one more year of control is insane. 

Jocketty can wait for that kind of deal, but eventually he will have to recognize that it’s not going to come. The Astros still have a wealth of talent in their system, with players such as Alex Bregman, Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and A.J. Reed, to build a solid package for Chapman. 

The Reds have no need for an elite closer since they are in a rebuilding phase, so being able to find one impact talent in a deal will make this a good trade. 

Prediction: Reds trade Aroldis Chapman to Astros for Kyle Tucker and Michael Feliz.

Late Free-Agent Additions

One notable development this year was that non-tendered players will come to Nashville as unexpected free agents for teams to sign. 

Two of the most interesting names not tendered a contract were Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter because of their power potential. They don’t add value in any other area, but teams will almost always create space for home runs. 

Mentioning players with a limited skill set who were essentially released by Pittsburgh (Alvarez) and Houston (Carter) is not normally a big deal.

However, Alvarez and Carter will be valuable assets for teams that are unable to make plays for major free agents and need offensive help, especially in the American League where these two can just keep their gloves at home and DH all year. 

Teams such as the Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics would make intriguing landing spots for at least one of these players. 

Paul Hoynes of the Plain-Dealer reported the Indians have interest in Alvarez and Carter to serve as their designated hitter for 2016. 

Alvarez is limited to being part of a platoon, but he does hit fairly well against right-handed pitching (.794 career OPS). 

If a team could have unlimited roster spots, Alvarez and Carter would make good platoon partners because Carter has a .337 career on-base percentage and .440 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. 

Unfortunately, it’s impractical to have two designated hitters on a 25-man roster. Carter would be a better option for the Indians, who only had 58 home runs from right-handed hitters last year. They are strong on the left side with Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley (who may have to start 2016 on the DL) and switch-hitters Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana.

The Indians are not far from being a playoff contender thanks to a strong starting rotation, led by Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, the emergence of Lindor as a budding superstar and the strong, steady presences of Kipnis and Brantley. 

Finding a true power hitter, albeit one with severe limitations, can at least bring the Indians closer to Kansas City in the American League Central. 

Prediction: Cleveland signs Chris Carter to a one-year deal.

Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted

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Ryan Madson had a great bounce-back season as a member of the Kansas City Royals bullpen in 2015. Now, the 35-year-old has reportedly cashed in on that success this offseason.

Continue for updates. 

A’s Reportedly Secure Madson

Sunday, Dec. 6

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, citing a source, reported the Oakland Athletics have signed Madson to a three-year contract worth $22 million. 

Madson‘s resurgence in 2015 was stunning, especially considering he hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2011 due to various arm problems following Tommy John surgery. He appeared in 68 games, covering 63.1 innings and had a 2.13 ERA with a 0.963 WHIP.

The arm problems do make Madson a potentially high-risk investment for whichever team lands him, but there’s also the potential for an impact reliever in a market that always covets those kinds of players.

Dodgers Reportedly Considered Madson

Saturday, Dec. 5

Crasnick first reported the Los Angeles Dodgers had turned their attention to Madson as a way of boosting their depleted bullpen corps. 

The Dodgers are a team with many holes, despite their massive payroll, with the bullpen being a particular problem. Their relievers finished 19th in ERA and 20th in opponent batting average against in 2015, so finding a bridge from the starters to closer Kenley Jansen is a priority for Los Angeles’ front office. 

There are other problems the Dodgers will have to address in some way this offseason. Zack Greinke is reportedly leaving to sign with National League West rival Arizona, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, making starting pitching another area to address. 

Stats per ESPN.com.

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The 2015 Major League Baseball winter meetings have yet to start, but it’s already obvious that this will be one of the craziest and least predictable offseasons in years. 

Zack Greinke provided the biggest jolt so far this winter, agreeing to a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

Newton’s third law of motion states that for every action there must be an equal and opposite reaction. Greinke going to the desert has a ripple effect on the rest of MLB, particularly in the National League West where the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants were considered favorites for the right-hander, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. 

While free agency is often the focus at the winter meetings, the trade winds are also likely to bear fruit. Trading is also a more practical way for teams that can’t spend nine figures on a single player to bolster their rosters for 2016 and beyond. 

Before the MLB world descends on Nashville for the start of this year’s winter meetings, here are the top trade rumors floating around that could provide the next great ripple effect. 

The Shelby Miller Market

Young, cost-controlled starting pitching is the greatest luxury in MLB, with Atlanta Braves right-hander Shelby Miller falling into that category with three years left before he can become a free agent. 

With the Braves taking on a full-scale rebuild, it’s only prudent that Miller’s name would at least be discussed in trade rumblings. 

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post did report that the Colorado Rockies at one point called the Braves about Miller, but the two sides had not spoken “in a while.”

Miller has been one of the most sought-after items on the trade market, with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reporting at the end of November that “20 or so teams” have shown some level of interest in the 25-year-old. 

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick recently noted the Braves were likely to keep Miller, despite receiving “a ton of hits” about him. 

The Rockies are a mess with no clear sense of direction. They finally bit the bullet last year by trading Troy Tulowitzki, evidently accepting a rebuild was necessary, but their return lacked impact. Jeff Hoffman was a top-10 pick in 2014, but he’s only pitched 104 innings in the minors after having Tommy John surgery.

Pitching in Colorado is different than anywhere else because of the thin air and what it can do to flatten pitches out. Developing power arms in the starting rotation, guys who can miss bats even when their command is slightly off, is essential for the Rockies to succeed. 

Miller would be an interesting test case for the Rockies because he does have power stuff, with FanGraphs measuring his fastball last year at a career-high 94 mph. He’s not, however, a prolific strikeout pitcher with 298 punchouts over 388.1 innings since 2014. 

The Braves have all the power in any negotiation because Miller has proved to be very good with a 3.22 career ERA, 1.24 WHIP and at least 31 starts in each of the last three years. Trading him now, as the franchise is essentially parting with anyone who will get expensive in the next two years, would fit their plan. 

Unfortunately for interested parties, there doesn’t seem to be any urgency on the Braves’ part to deal Miller. 

James Shields Available Again

One year after signing with the San Diego Padres, James Shields is being put on the market once again by the National League West club. 

Rosenthal reported the Padres “think” they are in a position to move Shields because his remaining contract ($65 million over three years) will look better with current free-agent prices continuing to rise. 

However, Rosenthal added other teams are “skeptical” about San Diego’s thinking and the 33-year-old doesn’t look as impressive as he once did:

Yet another matter complicating the process for any interested team, per ESPN’s Jayson Stark, is the way San Diego is looking to make a deal around Shields:

The one valuable asset Shields still has is his ability to eat innings. He’s made at least 33 starts covering at least 202.1 innings every year since 2008. 

On the bad side of things, Shields had a 3.91 ERA, below-average ERA+ (93) and 33 home runs allowed last year pitching half of his games in spacious Petco Park. Paying that pitcher nearly $22 million per season is foolish. 

Shields, who is about to turn 34 on Dec. 20, isn’t likely to rediscover his stuff and velocity, so the odds of him opting out after next season and leaving millions of dollars on the table that he won’t recoup in another deal are slim. 

The Padres will likely be stuck paying Shields for a subpar performance in their rotation, unless they decide to take a different approach and kick in a lot of money in a potential trade. 

The Hanley Ramirez Dilemma

The Boston Red Sox have already answered their two biggest questions this offseason, signing David Price to lead their starting rotation and acquiring Craig Kimbrel from San Diego to close games. 

One lingering question is what will happen with Hanley Ramirez, who is under contract for three more years. 

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported last week that Red Sox general manager Dave Dombrowski was seeking to move the 31-year-old. 

“The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense,” Cafardo wrote. “There are huge hurdles to cross, however. One is money. With a little more than $68 million remaining on Ramirez’s deal, the Red Sox would need to eat at least half.”

It’s important to note Cafardo‘s report came out before Baltimore acquired Mark Trumbo from Seattle, so it’s unclear how much interest, if any, would remain on the Orioles’ side. 

Seattle doesn’t seem likely after the M’s signed Nori Aoki to take Trumbo‘s spot in the outfield mix. Ramirez also doesn’t fit in Mariners general manager Jerry DiPoto’s early offseason philosophy of improving his team’s defense. 

Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald added Dombrowski will struggle to find a suitor for Ramirez because he’s “a soon-to-turn-32-year-old without a position who has missed an average of 41 games over the last four seasons because of assorted injuries.”

Unlike the Padres’ plan with Shields, the Red Sox don’t seem like a franchise that would insist on a team interested in Ramirez taking on his entire remaining salary. 

However, given Ramirez’s limitations because of injuries and his disappointing .717 OPS last year, the Red Sox will be better off hanging onto him and hoping he’s able to rebuild his value in 2016. It’s not a likely outcome, but it’s one they can afford to take. 

Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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With the free-agent pitching crop thinning out at the top, a valuable second-tier starter such as Mike Leake may see his market pick up heading into the winter meetings. 

Continue for updates.

Cardinals Connected to Leake

Saturday, Dec. 5

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Cardinals are interested in bringing Leake back to the NL Central.

Dodgers Reportedly Contacted Leake

Saturday, Dec. 5 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are believed to have “touched base” with Leake, per Heyman.

Giants Remain Interested in Leake

Saturday, Dec. 5 

Despite landing Jeff Samardzija, the Giants are still interested in signing Leake, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. 

D-Backs Reportedly Offered Leake

Friday, Dec. 4

Scout.com’s Max Wildstein reported Leake was offered a five-year contract, but it is unknown if that deal remains on the table after the signing of Zack Greinke. Rosenthal reported the team is still interested in Leake, despite its suddenly revamped rotation.

According to Rosenthal, Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and chief baseball officer Tony La Russa met with Leake Thursday. 

The Diamondbacks have been an unusual team over the last 12 months. They essentially sold one of their top pitching prospects, Touki Toussaint, to Atlanta in June when the Braves agreed to take on Bronson Arroyo’s salary.

One reason why Arizona can afford to play in deeper financial waters is a new television deal that will pay the club at least $1.5 billion over 20 years.

Leake has been a solid innings-eater throughout his career, making at least 30 starts covering at least 179 innings in each of the last four seasons. The 28-year-old isn’t an overpowering arm who will alter a rotation on his own, but as a No. 2 or No. 3 behind a proven ace, he’s a strong investment.

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