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Veteran reliever Joakim Soria picked an opportune time to hit free agency after posting his best ERA since 2010. Given the always-robust market for bullpen arms, especially ones with a history of closing games, the 31-year-old figures to draw a lot of interest this winter. 

Continue for updates.

Red Sox Among Teams Interested in Soria

Wednesday, Nov. 11

According to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, the Boston Red Sox have shown at least some level of interest in Soria. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported on Tuesday that two of his former teams, Detroit and Texas, were also looking at the right-hander. 

The Red Sox certainly seem like a strong fit for Soria because of his connection to team president Dave Dombrowski, who traded for the former All-Star in July 2014 when he was general manager of the Tigers. 

A lot of relievers tend to be volatile in free agency, and Soria is no exception. He has had Tommy John surgery twice in his career, most recently in 2012, and last year was the first time since 2011 he reached 50 innings pitched. 

The upside for Soria is terrific, as he posted a 2.53 ERA with 24 saves and 64 strikeouts in 67.2 innings with Detroit and Pittsburgh last season. Closers will always be in demand, so right now, he has all the leverage in negotiations with at least three interested teams already. 

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A potentially busy offseason for the New York Yankees got off to an intriguing start, as they acquired Aaron Hicks from the Minnesota Twins for catcher John Ryan Murphy. 

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported the deal on Twitter. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports added the deal is sensible for both teams because they are trading from positions of depth.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted, the Yankees are developing a pattern of trading backup catchers after dealing Francisco Cervelli to the Pittsburgh Pirates last offseason. 

Sherman also added that this could be good news for New York’s talented but erratic catching prospect, Gary Sanchez:

Baseball America’s JJ Cooper likes the move for both teams, with the Yankees getting an outfielder with a high ceiling and the Twins getting a player at a position that’s always difficult to fill because of all the intricacies that go into catching. 

This could also be a prelude to another, bigger deal for the Yankees, as Sherman speculated:

On Wednesday, Sherman wrote that the Seattle Mariners have discussed a trade for Brett Gardner. He did say nothing was “far along,” so it’s unlikely there would be a quick resolution if the Yankees are even interested in trading their 32-year-old outfielder. 

With the Yankees having Brian McCann locked in as their starting catcher, getting a young, talented outfielder like Hicks for a backup catcher isn’t a bad move. 

Hicks did have the best season of his career in 2015, hitting .256/.323/.398 in 97 games. He had an .870 OPS against left-handed pitching, giving him value in a platoon situation. 

The Twins didn’t have a spot for him, with Byron Buxton ready to handle center field and young, talented outfielders like Eddie Rosario and Oswaldo Arcia warranting significant playing time in 2016. 

This is a good trade for both teams, as both found ways to address areas of need without having to sacrifice significant parts of their future to do so. It may not be a marquee move, but it accomplishes a lot and opens up possibilities for both teams as the hot stove season warms up. 

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com

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The Major League Baseball hot stove is percolating, as general managers from all 30 teams have been in Florida this week for their annual meetings before the winter meetings take place in December. 

Free agency will draw the most interest from fans, which is easy to understand with names like David Price, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon seeking new contracts. 

However, with a lot of teams unable to dip their toe into the vast financial waters of free agency, trades are an alternative to improving their roster. It does require giving up talent, but there are risks worth taking if a GM believes one or two right moves can lead to a World Series title in 2016. 

In anticipation of what is to come this winter, here are the early trade rumblings floating around. 

Mariners Explore Brett Gardner

In their ongoing quest to field a competent trio of outfielders, as well as improve their dreadful defense, the Seattle Mariners are looking to the New York Yankees for a possible upgrade in the form of Brett Gardner. 

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mariners have contacted the Yankees to inquire about Gardner’s availability in a deal: 

No trade discussions were characterized as far along or specifically targeted to just one team. Nevertheless, Gardner has long been a player whom new Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto has liked going back to his time as an executive with the Diamondbacks and Angels. 

Gardner would be a perfect fit for what the Mariners need, as he’s a good defensive left fielder who can hit at the top of the order with a strong on-base percentage, solid power and the speed to steal 20-25 bases. 

Defensive metrics show that Gardner’s performance in left field has declined the last three years, as he went from one of the best in MLB with 58 defensive runs saved from 2010-11 to an average glove with 13 defensive runs saved since 2013, per FanGraphs. 

Even with that decline, Gardner would still be a huge upgrade with his glove for the Mariners, who were really undone by abysmal overall defense. 

Dipoto has a lot of work to do repairing the roster to make his team a contender in a strong American League West led by the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The Yankees would have to be willing to part with Gardner, who is under contract through 2018 at a reasonable salary of $36 million total. The team isn’t flush with outfield talent in the minors, but Aaron Judge is not far away and one day Mason Williams will get an extended big-league look. 

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has an old roster, as eight of the nine regulars from last season listed on Baseball-Reference.com were between the ages of 31 and 39. Dealing one of his best assets while still close to the prime of his career would not sit well with fans or media, but could bring back a strong return and create some financial flexibility that might not otherwise be there. 

Aroldis Chapman Still Available

Speaking of ongoing sagas, Aroldis Chapman’s days with the Cincinnati Reds have felt numbered dating back to last winter. He seemed like a strong trade candidate before the July 31 deadline, yet nothing happened. 

Now, heading into his final season of arbitration, Chapman has to be considered the relief pitcher who is guaranteed to be dealt. The Reds, who are still rebuilding even with an MVP finalist in Joey Votto on the roster, have no reason to keep their hard-throwing closer in the midst of what is sure to be another losing season. 

According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, Chapman is one of many late-inning relievers who could be on the market: 

Not only is Reds star closer Aroldis Chapman still eminently available and Padres star closer Craig Kimbrel out there as well, there are a few more star relief entries on the block. The Yankees are willing to entertain trade ideas regarding their excellent reliever Andrew Miller, as was reported Monday on CBSSports.com, and it doesn’t end there. Not even close.

Heyman also listed Pittsburgh’s Mark Melancon, Texas’ Shawn Tolleson and Washington’s duo of Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen as relievers that teams will at least listen to offers for. 

That creates a big problem for Reds general manager Walt Jocketty, who in theory should be able to ask for a sizable return for Chapman. The 27-year-old Cuban has had at least 106 strikeouts and 33 saves each of the last four seasons, so he’s dominant and consistent in a job that’s always under the microscope.

However, given that Chapman made over $8 million last year and is in his final season of arbitration, his salary is going to be a problem. Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com estimates the southpaw could earn $12.9 million in 2016. 

For perspective, per Spotrac.com, San Diego’s Craig Kimbrel is currently the highest-paid closer in 2016 with a salary of $11.25 million. 

Combine that massive salary for Chapman with a relief market that includes free agents Darren O’Day, Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Ryan Madson and all those potential trade candidates, and Jocketty has no leverage in discussions involving Chapman. 

Eventually, something has to get done because the Reds can’t afford to wait any longer on Chapman. Their window to maximize his trade value was last year when his salary was still affordable and he was under control for two seasons, but now it’s just a matter of getting something while they can. 

The Jurickson Profar Question

There may not be a more intriguing player entering 2016 than Texas Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar. The former top prospect has not played in the big leagues since 2013 due to injuries, but he will only be 23 when next season starts. 

For perspective, Chicago Cubs rookie sensation Kris Bryant will turn 24 in January. Profar has been playing in the Arizona Fall League, hitting a strong .260/.344/.500 in a small sample size of 13 games. 

Given the potential upside for Profar, it should come as no surprise that teams have tried kicking the tires on his availability in a trade, according to Sherman. 

“Teams have inquired with Texas about Jurickson Profar—the Yankees included—but the Rangers likely will try to get baseball’s one-time top prospect back to full value by deploying him in the field before trying to trade him,” Sherman reported.

Adding to the unlikelihood of Profar being traded, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told Sherman the team was not looking to move him. 

“We are not looking to trade him,” Daniels said. “We held onto him this long. We are pretty optimistic his shoulder is fit. The mindset is to wait and see where he is. We believe he will get back to his value, which was one of the best young players out there.”

It’s certainly a worthwhile gamble, as Profar was the No. 1 prospect in baseball as recently as 2013. He’s still very young and has been impressive in Arizona this fall.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law wrote on Oct. 23 that Profar‘s bat speed “is totally intact” and he hit four balls in play very hard, getting a double and home run for his efforts. 

Given that Profar has been limited to DH duty while working his way back, he will need to prove that his surgically repaired right shoulder can handle playing shortstop to maximize his value. 

The Rangers have depth in the middle of the infield with Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Rougned Odor at second base. Their presence makes it understandable why teams would inquire about Profar, but his upside is greater than both and Texas has no reason to move him yet.

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Versatile utility man Jose Pirela is on the move, as the New York Yankees have traded the 25-year-old to the San Diego Padres for minor league right-hander Ronald Herrera. 

MLB Roster Moves confirmed the deal on Twitter. 

Pirela made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2014, appearing in seven games at second base and designated hitter. He got more playing time this season as New York made it to the playoffs, playing in 37 games with a .230/.247/.311 line. 

While not a massive upgrade for a Padres team that was a mess in 2015, Pirela does give them more depth to play with next season, as MLB.com’s Corey Brock noted:

Pirela’s best role may be as a bench player, but the Padres found out the value of having depth last season. Second baseman Jedd Gyorko has been a disappointment since arriving in the big leagues in 2013, posting a .236/.293/.395 line in 364 games. 

Plus, the Padres will likely lose left fielder Justin Upton to free agency, and outfielder Wil Myers played in only 60 games last season due to injuries. 

Padres general manager A.J. Preller will certainly be more active this offseason as he looks to improve upon the 74 wins his team had in 2015, but Pirela is the kind of valuable bench player he ignored last season investing in all of the marquee names. 

With Pirela now on board as a fourth outfielder and extra infielder, Preller and the Padres can look to fill their potential starting roles through free agency or trades. 

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While the Kansas City Royals are still basking in the glow of their first world championship in 30 years, Major League Baseball will put an official bow on the 2015 season on Nov. 19 with the announcement of the American League and National League Most Valuable Player. 

On Tuesday night, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced the three finalists in each league who will compete for the prestigious honor.

National League

At the risk of taking away suspense, this is Bryce Harper’s award. That’s not to say Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto didn’t have excellent seasons in their own right, but the Washington Nationals star was on a different level than anyone else in the NL this season. 

The only “argument” that a certain section of the voting populace will make against Harper is his team didn’t make the playoffs. To counter that, I will say it’s a completely irrelevant argument to suggest a team’s disappointing season is a reflection of a player’s outstanding accomplishment. 

Looking at the numbers Harper put up in 2015, just offensively, this is arguably the best season anyone has put up since Albert Pujols’ final MVP season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. 

Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post took Harper’s 2015 stats even further to illustrate why the former No. 1 overall pick is the NL MVP:

This isn’t just the best offensive season of 2015 (and we say “offensive” because we don’t even need to factor in the fact that Harper developed into a superior right fielder), but it fits in with the heydays of legends. That 1.107 OPS is the highest in baseball since 2008 (Albert Pujols, 1.114). Harper’s average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage slash line entering the weekend: .331/.461/.646, all at age 22. Compare that to .325/.451/.618. That’s the five-year average, from ages 22-26, for one Mickey Mantle. 

Before the season started, ESPN published an anonymous poll of MLB players in which Harper was named the most overrated player in the sport. It was ridiculous at the time considering he was just 22 years old, had already won NL Rookie of the Year and had been hampered by injuries. 

Now, eight months later at the ripe old age of 23, Harper is the overwhelming favorite to win NL MVP and should have that honor bestowed upon him for having a historic season when factoring in how young he still is. 

For comparison, this year’s likely NL Rookie of the Year winner, Kris Bryant, is 10 months older than Harper. Washington’s superstar lived up to his potential in 2015 and will only get better from here. 

American League

Unlike in the NL MVP race, things are much more interesting in the American League, even though the final voting likely won’t reflect that.

The Kansas City Royals’ Lorenzo Cain is an excellent inclusion, as he quietly posted a .307/.361/.477 slash line, saved 18 runs in center field playing most of his games at spacious Kauffman Stadium and racked up 6.6 wins above replacement. 

As good as Cain was in 2015, though, he has no shot to win this award because the two players he’s competing against were on their own island in the AL.

This is one year in which two players have a legitimate case as MVP. Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout were neck and neck virtually all year, especially down the stretch when everyone is paying attention. 

Trout’s biggest advantage comes in the most important category: on-base percentage. The basic goal of baseball is to try to score more runs than your opponent, which is only accomplished by getting on base. Trout was superior to Donaldson in that category by a substantial margin. 

Another factor that works in Trout’s favor, especially when looking at offensive stats, is home ballpark. Donaldson went from the abyss of O.co Coliseum to the bandbox of Rogers Centre and, not surprisingly, had the best offensive season of his career. 

According to ESPN’s Park Factors, Angel Stadium was the second-worst offensive park in baseball last season. 

There’s also a myth that Donaldson performed better than Trout in clutch situations, something Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports called out:

Here is Donaldson with:
Runners on: .335/.409/.601
Runners in scoring position: .358/.445/.627
RISP with 2 outs: .254/.382/.444

Now Trout:
Runners on: .319/.458/.559 
Runners in scoring position: .352/.512/.693
RISP with 2 outs: .314/.556/.371

In every so-called clutch scenario, Trout is better. He’s 34 RBIs down on Donaldson because of these numbers, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus:

• Donaldson has come up with a runner on first base 204 times this year, Trout 197 times.
• Donaldson has come up with a runner on second base 121 times this year, Trout 95 times. 
• Donaldson has come up with a runner on third base 85 times this year, Trout 46 times.

In a race as close as this one, Trout’s home park and significant advantage in on-base percentage should play a key role in deciding the outcome. 

However, as everyone knows, awards are as much about narratives as merit. Donaldson and Trout had fantastic seasons, but since only one can be rewarded for his efforts, voters will always lean the way of the player whose team was better. 

Harper’s situation is different because he was so much better than the other NL contenders that voters, even those stuck on the playoff narrative, don’t have an alternative to choose from. 

There’s also something to be said for voter fatigue with Trout. It’s not right or fair, but some in the BBWAA could consciously or subconsciously feel like they just want to give someone else their vote because the Los Angeles Angels star has been talked about in MVP discussion ad nauseam every year since 2012. 

Donaldson will win the AL MVP award because he was so great in 2015 and because the Toronto Blue Jays made the postseason. Trout is still the best player in the league, but sometimes that’s not good enough to make you the MVP. 

Stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted

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With the wave of statistical analysis and metrics washing over Major League Baseball, defense has become more prominent than ever. Tuesday provided an opportunity to reward the best of the best, as the 2015 Gold Glove winners were announced. 

Here’s the full list of recipients:   

Any discussion of defense usually starts with Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons, but he was knocked off his perch this year by also-stellar defender Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants. 

According to FanGraphs, Simmons led all National League shortstops with 25 defensive runs saved, but Crawford tied for second with 20 and ranked first with 84 out-of-zone plays made. 

Crawford’s teammates discussed the 28-year-old’s defensive abilities before the award was announced, with midseason acquisition Mike Leake telling Alex Pavlovic of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area what he noticed after playing in front of Crawford.

“I didn’t realize how good of a shortstop he is until I got here,” Leake said. “You just see how consistent he is. He’s got a very soft glove. He makes it look fluid and easy and like there’s not much effort. I don’t know if there’s panic in that head, but he makes it look like there isn’t any.”

It’s a testament to the strong crop of defenders at shortstop in the NL that Simmons’ hold on the Gold Glove was broken—at least for one year—after two seasons. Crawford has been an elite defender for years and now has the hardware to prove it. 

Looking at the defensive talent at shortstop in the NL, Miami Marlins infield instructor Perry Hill told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that there are some similarities to a previous shortstop wave in the majors. 

“Remember when [Derek] Jeter, A-Rod and [Nomar] Garciaparra were all together about 15 years ago?” Hill said. “It’s kind of like that now on the flip side—on the defensive side.”

Speaking of the Marlins, Dee Gordon was awarded his first career Gold Glove after leading all qualified second basemen with 13 defensive runs saved and a 6.4 UZR. His team also sent out a congratulatory GIF that summed up how well the 27-year-old fared in his first season in Miami:

This was a banner year for Gordon on both sides of the ball, as noted by Ace of MLB Stats on Twitter:

Gordon had a slow ascent in the big leagues. He arrived in 2011 with the Los Angeles Dodgers and didn’t play more than 87 games until 2014. He was then traded to the Marlins and set career highs in average (.333), on-base percentage (.359) and slugging percentage (.418), and now he has a Gold Glove, too.

Per ESPN’s Mark Simon, defensive runs saved metrics were not nearly as kind to the American League shortstops up for the award:

It is important to note that Cleveland Indians rookie Francisco Lindor, who led AL shortstops in defensive runs saved, UZR and defensive value, was not eligible for the award after falling short of the minimum innings requirement; his promotion to the big leagues didn’t come until June. 

Alcides Escobar may not have gotten a lot of love from the defensive runs saved metric, but the Kansas City Royals shortstop did lead all qualified AL shortstops with an .807 revised zone rating. RZR measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out,” per FanGraphs. 

Royals catcher Salvador Perez, who won his third consecutive Gold Glove, is on a pretty good run. He was named World Series MVP after his team’s triumph over the New York Mets in Game 5 on Nov. 1. 

Perez didn’t rank very high in all metrics, as Baseball-Reference.com’s defensive runs saved above average had him tied for 28th among catchers, but catching is hard to define defensively because pitch blocking, pitch framing, throwing runners out, picking runners off and more go into it. 

Sticking with another World Series participant, Yoenis Cespedes didn’t play a game in the American League after July 30 but received his first career Gold Glove after having 11 defensive runs saved in 865.2 innings with the Detroit Tigers. 

And Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier didn’t merely dazzle on highlight reels. The 25-year-old led all players, regardless of position, in defensive runs saved (42), UZR (30.0) and defensive value (32.0). 

Combine those metrics with plays like this one against Baltimore Orioles star and fellow Gold Glove winner Manny Machado, and Kiermaier is perhaps the most deserving winner of this award:

The Gold Glove Awards will never be perfect, as they are voted on by managers and coaches who have to focus their attention on getting their teams ready to play every day, but there’s no denying the overall strength of this class of winners. 

Defense is more essential than ever in this era of baseball, with no greater evidence of that than this year’s World Series champion. Kansas City had three Gold Glove winners and was built on a foundation of stellar relief pitching and players all over the field who made the spectacular look routine. 

Defensive stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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The last vestige of Major League Baseball in 2015 is here in the form of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America awards that will be handed out starting on Nov. 16. 

As has been the case since 2012, three award finalists from each league have been announced in four categories, including Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player. 

Here are the players and managers competing for those prestigious honors:

There are no surprises in the list of finalists, though that doesn’t mean the races lack any real drama. The biggest storyline is the list of National League MVP finalists, which doesn’t feature one player from a playoff team. 

MLB.com’s Tom Singer took things even further:   

The official ballot for voters actually says postseason appearances are not necessary to define MVP, which represents positive progress by the BBWAA.

“There is no clear-cut definition of what most valuable means,” per BBWAA.com. “It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.”

Bryce Harper should win the award, as he was the only player in baseball with a slash line of at least .300/.400/.600 and led all players with a FanGraphs‘ WAR total of 9.5. 

In the American League, it seems a foregone conclusion that Josh Donaldson will be named MVP. He was outstanding in his first season with Toronto, hitting .297/.371/.568 with 41 home runs and helping Toronto make the postseason. 

However, Mike Trout had better numbers in all three main categories with a .299/.402/.590 slash line and tied Donaldson with 41 home runs. 

Grantland’s Jonah Keri also made the case for Trout, using offensive metrics and adding defense into the equation:

By park-adjusted offensive metrics, Trout was the best hitter in the American League, while Donaldson ranked fourth. Meanwhile, Donaldson was the better fielder, per Baseball Info Solutions’s Defensive Runs Saved: He graded as 11 runs better than the average third baseman, compared to Trout’s five runs above the average center fielder. Both players played premium positions, though, and that relatively small defensive gap isn’t enough to override Trout’s offensive advantage. By both versions of Wins Above Replacement, Trout has the edge.

It’s an interesting conundrum for voters to be in, as both players have strong cases. Donaldson will likely win, but the race is not as cut-and-dry as the playoff narrative would suggest. 

The American League Cy Young Award battle between David Price and Dallas Keuchel could feature another tight battle like last year’s race between Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez. 

Kluber won that race by 10 total points and had four more first-place votes than Hernandez. Price and Keuchel are just as evenly matched, as they were separated by 0.3 in FanGraphs‘ WAR. Keuchel had 11.2 more innings pitched, while Price had a lower ERA (2.45 to 2.73) and more strikeouts (225 to 216). 

The young kids in the AL, the Houston Astros’ Carlos Correa, Cleveland Indians’ Francisco Lindor and Minnesota Twins’ Miguel Sano, would all be deserving winners in most years. All three shone in different ways but were no less impactful. 

Correa has the narrative of being Houston’s new star player, helping the Astros reach the playoffs and being spectacular with a .345 on-base percentage, .512 slugging percentage and 22 home runs in 99 games. 

The 21-year-old has already collected one prestigious award, being named the Sporting News‘ Rookie of the Year as voted on by a panel of 176 American League players. 

In the Sporting News’ report by Ryan Fagan, Astros manager A.J. Hinch described some of the things he had heard about Correa:

When a guy’s 20, we always look back to the past on how guys relate a little bit or look like previous players. So, with Carlos being a tall shortstop, slender, lean, you know the comparisons I heard. Cal Ripken. I heard (Troy) Tulowitzki. I heard (Derek) Jeter and A-Rod. All we’ve ever wanted him to be is Carlos Correa. I’m not big on putting limitations on guys or expectations. I just want him to be his best.

Sano was in some ways more impressive with the bat, hitting 18 homers with a .530 slugging percentage and .385 on-base percentage. His biggest problem is lack of playing time, as he was only able to play in 80 games after being called up in July. 

Lindor doesn’t have the prodigious power of Sano or Correa, but the 21-year-old posted a .313/.353/.482 slash line with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He was also a star defender at shortstop, leading all AL players at the position with 10 defensive runs saved and a 10.5 UZR. 

Going by FanGraphs’ WAR, Lindor led all AL rookies with a 4.6 mark, ahead of Correa (3.3) and Sano (2.0). 

That will be the warm-up act next week, leading into the NL Cy Young vote featuring the Los Angeles duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke along with the Chicago Cubs’ breakout superstar, Jake Arrieta. 

Arrieta has the second-half rise that no one can touch, as noted by Steve Melewski of MASN:

Greinke, who previously won a Cy Young in 2009 with the Kansas City Royals, joined a historic group of players after posting his second season with at least 200 innings and an ERA+ of 200, per Baseball-Reference.com:

Yet Greinke was the Dodgers’ Game 2 starter in the postseason because two-time defending NL Cy Young winner Kershaw seemed to find new highs he hadn’t yet hit in his illustrious career, per Ace of MLB Stats:

Awards voting is easy to criticize because there is always a case to make for someone. This year feels like a nightmare in so many categories because of how deep the talent pool is to choose from. There are players left out of all these groups who could easily have finished second or third in most years. 

The votes are being calculated, and all the anticipation will provide answers starting next week. Now that the finalists are known, let the furious debating begin. 

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless noted otherwise.

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Andrew Miller just finished his first year as the New York Yankees’ closer in 2015. It could also end up being the left-hander’s only season in the Bronx, if the trade price is right.   

Continue for updates. 

Yankees Will Take Offers for Miller

Tuesday, Nov. 10

According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, the Yankees will not shut the door on any potential trade discussions involving Miller: “The Yankees are willing to entertain trade ideas regarding their excellent reliever Andrew Miller, as was reported Monday on CBSSports.com.”

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and other personnel are in Boca Raton, Florida, along with representatives from all 30 teams for the annual general manager meetings, so this is when trade discussions will begin.

However, the wording Heyman used in the report is key. It doesn’t say the Yankees are actively shopping Miller, but they will listen. This doesn’t mean anything is imminent, especially because the report lists seven other closers who are available to some degree. 

One anonymous general manager told Heyman that “everyone’s closer is available,” so the Yankees don’t have a lot of leverage in their negotiations if they were to actively pursue moving Miller. 

Miller signed a four-year deal with the Yankees last winter, posting a 1.90 ERA and 36 saves with 100 strikeouts in 61.2 innings. He’s a key piece of New York’s late-inning relief stable that includes Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson that was so crucial to the team securing a wild-card spot. 

It seems unlikely the Yankees would deal Miller, but Cashman knows he has a strong crop of arms to plug into the ninth inning if he finds an offer to his liking. 

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If the saying goes that a playoff series doesn’t really begin until both teams have played a home game, the New York Mets loudly announced their presence in the World Series with an impressive victory over the Kansas City Royals in Game 3. 

Now, the Mets will turn to rookie pitcher Steven Matz to even the series against Kansas City’s wily veteran Chris Young in Game 4 at Citi Field on Saturday night. 

These two pitchers have vastly different approaches to the game, as Matz brings power stuff and youthful ignorance and Young succeeds by changing speeds and frustrating hitters with his ability to alter eye levels. 

Pitching Analysis

One potential advantage the Mets could have over the Royals in this game is Young’s three-inning relief appearance in Game 1 of that 14-inning affair. 

Even though Mets hitters didn’t have a hit against Young in his relief stint, it did get them a look at what he has to offer. 

According to MLB.com, the Mets’ projected lineup for Game 4 has a total of 15 at-bats against Young, 11 by Yoenis Cespedes. That was before Tuesday’s game, so every starter on Saturday except Michael Conforto got a look at the right-hander. 

In contrast, Matz has made just eight career starts including the postseason and hasn’t been seen by anyone in Kansas City’s lineup. 

This is the first World Series start for both pitchers, but Matz will be under the microscope because he’s the 24-year-old rookie throwing at home. 

Fortunately for Mets fans, per Ryan Hatch of NJ.com, Matz is taking things as they come instead of dwelling on how young and inexperienced he is. 

“This is where you want to be in baseball,” Matz said. “This is the dream. … This is what you write up in your backyard when you’re playing Wiffle ball.”

Matz should also be relaxed prior to the start because he will be driving to the ball park from his parents’ house in Long Island. 

While the starting pitching should be the focus, as it’s played a pivotal role in the outcome of the last two games, Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated did note that Young and Matz have not been given long leashes in October:

He (Young) averaged 5.5 innings per start during the regular season and hasn’t thrown as many as 80 pitches in a single appearance in four weeks. In the National League park, where he’s as likely to depart for a pinch-hitter as he is because of fatigue or ineffectiveness on the mound, Young seems unlikely to pitch past the fifth inning. The same can be said about Matz, who has completed the sixth inning just once in six starts since returning from a torn latissimus dorsi muscle in early September. Matz hasn’t thrown a pitch in the sixth inning in more than five weeks.

Matz couldn’t even make it to five innings in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Chicago Cubs, in which the Mets were winning 6-0 after 3.5 innings. 

Young also had a game like that against the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series. He was staked to a 5-0 lead after two innings and had a 5-2 lead after three innings but couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. Kansas City’s offense did torch Toronto’s bullpen for nine runs over the last three innings to turn a three-run game into a 14-2 blowout. 

Assuming both bullpens see a lot of use in this game, neither team should have restrictions on anyone. Kansas City manager Ned Yost used six relievers on Friday, including Kelvin Herrera despite the Royals trailing by three runs, but only Franklin Morales threw more than 20 pitches.

The Mets used their main trio of relievers (Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia) for the final three innings with none of them throwing more than 13 pitches. 

For all the talk of Kansas City’s main relievers being untouchable, the Mets have gotten to Herrera without having that one big inning against him yet. The hard-throwing right-hander has thrown just two innings in the World Series, but he has allowed four hits, one walk and one unearned run. 

The Royals are still favorites if any of the remaining games depend on relievers, but with the exception of Wade Davis, Yost‘s Big Three with Herrera and Ryan Madson looks as vulnerable as it has this season. 

Prediction

Given the way New York’s offense finally came alive in Game 3, pushing its home record in the playoffs to 4-1, the Mets do have confidence. Matz has to pound the strike zone better than he has in his first two postseason starts, but he no longer has to feel like perfection is necessary to win.

Young has been far better this October than anyone could have predicted, as it’s rare for someone who doesn’t break 90 mph with the fastball to average more than one strikeout per inning pitched. 

The Mets had adrenaline and the crowd working on their side Friday. Citi Field will be alive again on Halloween, but the Royals have responded to losses on the road every single round this postseason with a victory. 

The Royals are going to win the game thanks to a bounce-back effort from the lineup and strong bullpen work from Yost‘s stable of relievers. 

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Even though the New York Mets are returning home for the World Series in a 2-0 hole against the Kansas City Royals, they have lost just one playoff game at Citi Field in 2015. 

Odds are not in New York’s favor to win the World Series, as no team has won the Fall Classic after dropping the first two games since the 1996 New York Yankees. 

It also doesn’t help the Mets’ cause that Kansas City still has two games left, if necessary, and the Royals haven’t lost at home in the postseason since the Houston Astros won Game 1 of the American League Division Series. 

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Looking at how the series stands, it’s no surprise the list of potential MVP candidates is filled with Royals. The big surprise is that Johnny Cueto is leading the pack, because if Kansas City wins before Game 6, he would only get one start. 

Granted, Cueto‘s one start was masterful and unlike any other start in the World Series in 20 years, per ESPN Stats & Info:

ESPN’s Buster Olney, citing Elias Sports Bureau, did note Cueto is the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 2000 to have two starts of at least eight innings pitched and two hits or fewer allowed. MVP voters could decide to give the Kansas City right-hander MVP with just one start as a way of honoring his resurgence this October. 

The Mets will have a chance to get back in the series with rookie Noah Syndergaard opposing Chris Young in Game 3. 

If you believe in history being an indicator of the future, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo has a piece of information that works in New York’s favor:

A more substantial reason to be optimistic about the Mets’ chances is the National League venue, which Phil Rogers of MLB.com notes hasn’t been kind to American League opponents in recent World Series. 

“In the past nine World Series,” Rogers wrote, “American League teams have gone 8-17 in NL parks. The 2006 Tigers, ’08 Rays, ’10 Rangers and ’12 Tigers failed to win a game on NL soil.”

The Royals won’t have the same lineup depth because designated hitter Kendrys Morales, who led the team in slugging percentage (.485) and tied for the team lead in homers (22), will be relegated to pinch-hit duty. 

There’s also the matter of Kansas City’s lineup being able to make contact, as Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have combined for four strikeouts in 11 innings this World Series.

That high contact rate has seemed to change the game plan for Mets starters coming into the game, as Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com wrote after Game 2.

“In Games 1 and 2, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom each averaged roughly 96 MPH with their fastball,” Cerrone wrote. “Yet, Harvey threw it just 37 percent of the time, while deGrom threw his 39 percent of the time, down from his regular-season norm of 60 percent.”

Syndergaard also relies on his fastball, throwing it just under 62 percent of the time during the regular season and averaging 97.1 mph with the pitch.

Royals hitters have no doubt picked up on the fact that Harvey and deGrom were afraid to consistently challenge them with their fastball, so they could look for a breaking ball. Syndergaard should look to establish his heater early before turning to the curveball and changeup the second time through the order.

Per Daren Willman of MLBFarm.com, the Royals have had virtually no success against fastballs at least 95 mph in the World Series:

Another key for the Mets is getting the offense going. It’s hardly a surprise that Daniel Murphy has stopped hitting home runs like Barry Bonds in 2001, but the bad news is no one else around him is stepping up his game. 

Cueto‘s splendid effort in Game 2 can be chalked up to a great player pitching a great game, as tends to happen in October, but the Mets had 15 hitters reach in Game 1 via hits, walks and errors with just four runs to show for it. 

A big reason for that is because the Mets only had one extra-base hit—a home run by Curtis Granderson—in the game. By contrast, the Royals had the same number of hits as the Mets in the first game (11), but four went for extra bases. 

Yoenis Cespedes, who did need a cortisone shot in his shoulder before the World Series, looks like an injured player with one hit in his last 12 at-bats. David Wright has just two extra-base hits this postseason and no homers.

The Mets could get away with those performances when their pitching staff was shutting down a bad Los Angeles Dodgers lineup and overmatched Chicago Cubs lineup, but the Royals make too much contact for the starters to throw seven or eight innings each night. 

Since the Mets are returning home and have been so good at Citi Field, look for them to get back on track in Game 3, but the Royals will steal one game on the road and return home with a chance to close things out at Kauffman Stadium. 

Stats via FanGraphs.com

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