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After missing their chance to clinch a World Series berth on Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals return to Kauffman Stadium, where they have won their last three postseason games, with a chance to eliminate the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Friday. 

The Blue Jays have been at their best in the playoffs when facing elimination, winning four consecutive games in those situations and averaging 6.5 runs per game. 

Something has to give on Friday with the Royals looking to set up a showdown with the New York Mets in the Fall Classic and the Blue Jays hoping to force a winner-take-all seventh game on Saturday. 

What They Are Saying

Even though the Blue Jays kept themselves in the playoffs, Royals manager Ned Yost said after Game 5 that there’s no reason for his team to be lacking in confidence right now, per Gregor Chisholm and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

Now we’re going back to a place where we’re completely comfortable. That’s why home-field was so important to us. We really wanted to play four games in our park. And we’re taking a 3-2 lead back to where we are comfortable and back to our home fans that support us and are fantastic.

While that can be passed off as manager speak, Yost isn’t wrong to be feeling good. His team’s success at home in these playoffs has already been mentioned, but the Royals also had a 51-30 mark in front of their home fans this year. 

That is the third-best home record in the American League this season, behind the two teams Kansas City has played in the postseason—the Houston Astros and Toronto tied for the best home record at 53-28. 

Waiting for the Royals in Game 6 is David Price, who was virtually unhittable for six innings in Game 2 until Ryan Goins and Jose Bautista botched a routine pop-up off the bat of Ben Zobrist in the bottom of the seventh inning that led to a five-run inning and a 6-3 win for Kansas City. 

All eyes will be on Price. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for years, winning a Cy Young Award in 2012 and leading all American League pitchers with a 6.4 FanGraphs‘ WAR this season. 

Yet for all of the accolades Price has already won and could win this offseason, his playoff results have left a lot to be desired, per High Heat Stats on Twitter:

There’s no logical reason why a pitcher as consistently good, dominant and talented as Price, who is still very much in the prime of his career at the age of 30, has struggled in the postseason.

It’s a small sample size relative to a 162-game regular season, but these are the moments by which pitchers are judged. Position players can flip their narrative in a heartbeat because they get at least four at-bats every game. Playing once every fifth day doesn’t afford starting pitchers that same luxury. 

The Royals are turning to Yordano Ventura, who has had his own problems this postseason. The 24-year-old has allowed nine runs on 16 hits in 12.1 innings over three starts, so the Blue Jays should be able to keep their offensive momentum going. 

However, Yost has the luxury Toronto manager John Gibbons doesn’t when going to the bullpen. Lee Judge of the Kansas City Star wrote after Game 4 that the Royals are an unusually structured team:

The Royals are one win away from going to their second World Series in a row, and two of their starting pitchers in the playoffs finished the regular season with ERAs over 4.00. The starting pitchers do not have to be great; they just need to avoid disaster and give the Royals’ offense and bullpen a chance.

The Royals lost Greg Holland to Tommy John surgery late in the season but don’t worry because Wade Davis remains an unhittable monster with his 0.94 regular season ERA and no runs allowed in the playoffs since Game 5 of last year’s World Series. 

Before Yost turns things over to Davis, he brings in Kelvin Herrera, who throws 100 mph fastballs, or starter-turned-playoff-reliever Danny Duffy to do his thing, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:

All the Royals need Ventura to do is throw five innings of decent baseball—which could amount to three runs allowed—before turning things over to the slew of talented relievers who can shut down a lineup as good as Toronto’s. 

Prediction

The postseason went from being drama-filled in the division series, with three out of four matchups going all five games. The National League Championship Series was disappointing unless you are a New York Mets fan because it ended in four games. 

The Blue Jays kept hope alive for a decisive seventh game on Wednesday, needing one more win to put pressure on Kansas City. 

Kauffman Stadium does not line up for Toronto’s offensive strength, which is power. It’s a big ballpark that takes a lot of power to drive the ball out. One reason the Royals are so great at home is because their hitters make contact and have the speed to take an extra base. 

Eventually, Price will put everything together in the playoffs. He’s too good not to, as the Royals saw for six innings in Game 2. 

The Blue Jays have to come out of the gate strong, force Yost to go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning rather than fifth or sixth and get Price to throw seven strong innings. 

If for no other reason than hoping to see a Game 7, the Blue Jays get the slight edge in Friday’s matchup. 

Blue Jays 5, Royals 2

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The five-year marriage between Don Mattingly and the Los Angeles Dodgers came to an end Thursday as the two sides announced they had mutually agreed to part ways, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

It was a disappointing finish to Mattingly’s tenure as manager of the team. The Dodgers finished over .500 in each of his five seasons at the helm, making the postseason in each of the last three years, but their last two playoff appearances ended in the National League Division Series.

To put a final bow on this era of Dodgers baseball, Mattingly and members of the Los Angeles front office met with the media to discuss Thursday’s decision and what it means for both the former skipper and the franchise in the future.

Starting off, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman emphasized that the parting of ways was mutual, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

Mattingly would expand on why he agreed to the decision, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

The use of the phrase “part ways” will always lead to skepticism, though it isn’t always wrong. Los Angeles hired Mattingly when Ned Colletti was the general manager. When Friedman came on board in October 2014, he brought in Farhan Zaidi as general manager and Josh Byrnes as senior vice president of baseball operations.

Every regime will have a different philosophy. Mattingly worked with this group for a year and had some success before the two sides went different ways. 

Per Shaikin, Mattingly did say that he felt wanted by the Dodgers and added that he “loved” the various analytics that were presented to him by the new-look front office before adding that this is best for both sides:

Per Plunkett, Mattingly offered high praise to the trio of Friedman, Zaidi and Byrnes and where the franchise is going:

Friedman did note, per Plunkett, that today’s decision “wasn’t tied to the outcome of the NLDS” against the New York Mets. 

Looking to the future, Mattingly and the Dodgers have a lot of big decisions to make. He doesn’t sound like someone who wants to be out of the dugout for long, per Shaikin:

The Dodgers will become the most attractive managerial opening in the offseason. No team can match their combination of financial resources, front-office credentials and willingness to adapt.

It also doesn’t hurt to have Clayton Kershaw leading the rotation, though Zack Greinke’s opt-out clause will create some panic behind the left-hander if the Dodgers can’t reach a deal with their right-handed ace.

Friedman said during the presser, per Plunkett, that the Dodgers “expect to have a new manager in place” before the winter meetings begin December 7. 

Also of note, from Plunkett, Zaidi anticipates that the Dodgers will “have a younger team going forward.” Age is key for this franchise, as it started 2015 with the eighth-oldest roster in baseball. A lot of the team’s older players—in this case, anyone over 30—are eating up a lot of money. 

Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Andre Ethier and Brandon McCarthy combined to make roughly $94.7 million last season. Using FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, those six combined for a WAR of 8.3; Kershaw’s WAR in 2015 was 8.6. 

There were many problems for the Dodgers this season, beyond Mattingly’s tactics or understanding of the analytics at his disposal. 

Sometimes, being able to get a clean break can work out best for everyone. Mattingly will now have an opportunity to interview for other managerial openings if he wants. The Dodgers can conduct a thorough search to get the right manager for what the franchise needs moving forward.

Thursday’s press conference between the Dodgers and Mattingly gave them an opportunity to clear the air before taking the next steps in their baseball journeys. 

Contract info via Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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As the New York Mets anxiously await their opponent in the 2015 World Series, manager Terry Collins has everything set up exactly as he wants with five days off to set up the pitching staff however he chooses. 

The Kansas City Royals are one win away from securing their second consecutive berth in the Fall Classic, going back to Kauffman Stadium with two chances to close out the Toronto Blue Jays starting on Friday. 

Looking ahead to the World Series, the potential pitching matchups that could happen regardless of who the Mets are playing will be stellar. Johnny Cueto can get another opportunity to prove himself on the big stage, or David Price can exorcise all of his postseason demons.

World Series Schedule

Projected Pitching Matchups

Mets Rotation

There is no mystery for the Mets rotation, at least as things stand right now. Collins did have to rearrange some things for the National League Championship Series against Chicago because their previous series went the distance, so Matt Harvey took the hill in Game 1. 

However, by virtue of having additional time off before the World Series, Collins can go back to how he had things set up in the division series with Jacob deGrom starting the first game. 

After deGrom, Collins could turn to Harvey or Noah Syndergaard. In the division series against Los Angeles, Thor got the call in Game 2. There has been so much focus on Harvey’s arm over the final month, thanks in large part to his agent, Scott Boras. 

In September, Tim Rohan of the New York Times quoted Boras recalling a conversation with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson on how the two sides agreed to handle Harvey in his first season back following Tommy John surgery.

“I told him as the doctors go along, there’s going to be an innings limit,” Boras said. “He goes, ‘We understand there’s an innings limit.’” 

New York’s playoff run has obviously changed many things, with Harvey’s 2015 innings total currently standing at 202 after his two playoff starts. 

Collins was concerned about swelling in Harvey’s arm after he was hit by a comebacker in Game 1 of the NLCS, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. 

“He’s pretty sore and pretty swelled up,” Collins said. “He, as we sit here today, is a go (for Game 5, if it was needed). But that could certainly change in next couple of days. … I was pretty surprised at how swelled up it was yesterday. So we certainly are going to keep a really close eye on it the next couple of days.”

By clinching early, the Mets were able to avoid having to rush Harvey back in order to give his arm more time to heal. 

New York’s starters have been dominant this postseason, as noted by Hardball Talk’s D.J. Short:

One notable difference for the rotation in the World Series, whether it’s against Kansas City or Toronto, is neither team strikes out with much frequency.

The Cubs, for all their lineup strengths, were a bad matchup against the Mets because they led MLB with 1,518 strikeouts during the regular season. The Blue Jays had the seventh-fewest strikeouts (1,151), while the Royals are the only team that didn’t strike out at least 1,100 times (973). 

As impressive as deGrom, Syndergaard, Harvey and Steven Matz have looked in the playoffs, they will be facing a lineup the likes of which they have not seen in the postseason. They are good enough to dominate anyone, but seeing a repeat performance from the NLCS is asking a lot.

Royals/Blue Jays Rotation

Price’s playoff struggles have been well-documented thus far, though Toronto manager John Gibbons continues to make questionable decisions with his star left-hander, as noted by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:

There was Price, again, in a repeat of the division series, when Blue Jays manager John Gibbons inexplicably used him in relief during a game Toronto led by six runs. Price never got into Game 5 on Wednesday, spared by Kansas City’s inability to create a scenario that would have goaded Gibbons into deploying him again.

Even though there is the lingering question of Price’s ability to succeed consistently in the playoffs, he’s not been horrible every time out. 

Passan provided the pitches from Price’s first five innings of Game 2 against Kansas City:

Price added another 1-2-3 frame in the sixth inning, but things came undone in the seventh inning starting with a botched play by Ryan Goins in which he called off Jose Bautista on a lazy pop fly, the ball dropped and flood gates opened for a five-run inning. 

The Blue Jays best starter in the playoffs, surprisingly, has been Marco Estrada. The 32-year-old was a back-end starter, at best, with the Milwaukee Brewers the previous three years. He moves to Toronto, posts a 3.13 ERA during the regular season and has allowed five earned runs in 19.1 innings this postseason. 

Yet even with those numbers, Estrada should still be Toronto’s No. 3 option if it gets to the World Series because Price and Marcus Stroman are superior talents. 

The problem for Gibbons is Price and Stroman haven’t been at their best this postseason. In Game 3 against Kansas City, Stroman did battle his way through 6.1 innings, allowing 11 hits and four runs in an 11-8 win. 

Stroman‘s arm is as fresh as any starting pitcher still playing. He missed most of this season with a torn ACL, limiting him to four starts late in the year and three in the playoffs covering a total of 46.1 innings. 

The Royals’ rotation is fascinating because manager Ned Yost is basically letting his starters go five innings, regardless of how they perform, then turning things over to his dominant bullpen. 

Kansas City has played 10 games so far this postseason, with starters lasting just 49.2 innings. Cueto (twice) and Edinson Volquez are the only two starters who have made it through at least six innings. 

Despite having a bullpen that’s thrown three more innings than anyone else so far this postseason, Royals relievers have an astounding 53-9 strikeout-to-walk mark in 37.1 innings and a 2.65 ERA. 

Per Richard Justice of MLB.com, the Royals seem to have found the perfect bullpen that blends dominance and longevity:

Yost doesn’t need Cueto, Volquez or Chris Young to dominate for his team to win. The starters can give up three or four runs over four innings, turn things over to Luke Hochevar or Danny Duffy as a bridge to Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis and win a lot of games. 

It’s why the Royals are so hard to beat in October but also why their formula is impossible to replicate. Bullpens are among the most volatile spots to fill on any roster, which is why there is so much turnover for teams during the regular season. 

The Royals can call on Davis and Herrera to get nine outs, if needed, so opponents know they have to strike early or they are out of luck late in games. 

Stats via ESPN.com.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly are parting ways after three straight trips to the playoffs but just a single postseason series victory.

The Dodgers confirmed the news in a team release on Thursday, via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said:

As our end of season process began, we discussed the past year, our future goals, necessary changes, roster needs and other matters relating to next year’s campaign. As the dialogue progressed daily, it evolved to a point where we all agreed that it might be best for both sides to start fresh. We decided to think about it for a couple of days and when we spoke again, we felt comfortable that this was the direction to go. I have the utmost respect for Donnie and thoroughly enjoyed working with him this past season. I want to thank him for his hard work and collaboration, as well as his accomplishments, including three consecutive National League West titles. I wish him nothing but success in the future.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who originally reported the news, also noted the Miami Marlins are interested in the six-time All-Star to potentially take over the same role.

Mattingly reportedly wants to continue managing, but he had lost long-term support in L.A. As a result, the sides have decided to go their separate ways, according to Heyman.

Ramona Shelburne of ESPN reported the Dodgers had offered Mattingly a contract extension over the weekend, but the lingering uncertainty caused both parties to instead terminate the relationship.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported the Dodgers will pay Mattingly’s salary for the 2016 season.

Mattingly said in the release:

I’m honored and proud to have had the opportunity to manage the Los Angeles Dodgers. I’ve enjoyed my experiences and relationships with the organization’s staff and players throughout my eight years in L.A. After meeting with Andrew, Farhan and Josh, we all felt that a fresh start would be good for both the organization and me. We talked about several scenarios, including my returning in 2016. However, I believe this is the right time and right move for both parties. I’m still very passionate about managing and hope to get the opportunity in the near future. In the meantime, I want to thank the Dodger organization, the city and our fans for the opportunity and wish the club well going forward.

Mattingly said the more he talked to the Dodgers, the more evident it became that this decision was the best for both parties, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Mattingly added he “definitely wants to manage,” according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. 

The manager said he had no agreement with the team not to discuss what happened, but declined to do so, according to Shaikin. 

“Andrew, Farhan and Josh are great guys,” Mattingly said, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “They’re going to do great things. I believe that the organization is in great hands.” 

As has been the case since the Dodgers’ new ownership group took over in 2012, drama has been following the team around. That’s expected to some extent with payroll over $270 million in 2015.

Mattingly has been on the hot seat for two years, dating back to 2013 when the club got off to a slow start.

Ownership showed faith in him after the Dodgers made the playoffs last year by giving him a three-year contract extension in January. At the time, then-general manager Ned Colletti praised the job Mattingly had done during his tenure, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

I think he’s done a great job here. The last three years in the organization have been historic in a lot of different ways. We kept the baseball team steady and the credit goes to a lot of people, including the man who runs the dugout and the leader of the guys. This is well-deserved. He gets better and better.

Changes came to the Dodgers once again after they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2014 National League Division Series. Colletti remains with the organization but lost his duties as general manager because Andrew Friedman jumped from the Tampa Bay Rays to Los Angeles as the president of baseball operations.

Matt Snyder of CBS Sports wrote about a decision Mattingly made in this year’s NLDS Game 5 that may have sealed his fate:

He pinch hits for Joc Pederson with Chase Utley. …

Pederson’s second-half on-base percentage was still .317. He’d already drawn two walks in Game 5. Utley had a .291 OBP since joining the Dodgers. Pederson was more likely to get on base.

Plus, Utley only hit eight homers all year. Pederson has light-tower power and hit 26 homers, six coming in the second half. Pederson was more likely to homer, too.

Mattingly has always been a hot-button topic in Los Angeles. He’s not the most technically savvy manager, but CJ Nitkowski of Fox Sports 1 pointed out that it can’t be easy handling the roster he was handed:

Despite keeping the egos in check enough to make the postseason in 2013 and 2014, the only thing that matters with such a massive payroll is winning a World Series. The Dodgers lost in the division series each of the last two years, including this season to the New York Mets with Zack Greinke starting Game 5.

The Dodgers’ payroll will always be a focal point, but many high-salaried additions like Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier and Alexander Guerrero were products of the Colletti era.

It’s also a big problem when Yasiel Puig misses most of the season due to injuries and Joc Pederson falls off a cliff in the second half (.617 OPS). Mattingly was always fighting an uphill battle with the lineup.

Friedman is going to build this team how he wants. Mattingly was hired by the old regime, leaving him in a precarious position. He handled the situation as well as possible, but eventually things changed.

He’s had enough success to warrant another job somewhere, with a 446-363 (.551) record. It will also be good for him to get away from the intense scrutiny that comes with having a lot of expensive and aging talent on the roster.

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For the second consecutive season, the Kansas City Royals will have an opportunity to secure a spot in the World Series with one more victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. 

With their season on the line for the third time already this postseason, the Blue Jays got a tremendous start from Marco Estrada and a big sixth inning to force a sixth game at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, on Friday. 

Even though the Royals missed their chance to close things out in Game 5, they should still be brimming with confidence after winning their first two games at home in the series and stealing one on the road.

Here’s the remaining schedule for the American League Championship Series battle between the Blue Jays and Royals:    

Key Game 6 Storylines (Toronto)

The Blue Jays should be a confident lineup after scoring seven runs in Game 5 as well as chasing projected Game 6 starter Yordano Ventura out after 5.1 innings last Saturday. The Royals’ hard-throwing right-hander did battle his way through that game, allowing three runs despite eight hits and two walks.

All eyes will be on David Price in Game 6, as this could be his final start with the team if it loses. He’s also trying to erase postseason demons. 

The possible 2015 Cy Young Award winner appeared as if he had exorcised those playoff monsters in Game 2, as he was cruising through six innings before Kansas City put up five in the seventh to secure a 6-3 win. 

David Schoenfield of ESPN.com summed up Price’s postseason shortcomings best after last Saturday’s defeat:

It’s hard to believe, but Price’s teams are now 0-7 in the postseason when he starts. Price is 0-7 with a 5.44 ERA in those starts (his two postseason wins have come in relief). Some people get mad when you say that, like they did about Clayton Kershaw, but you can’t say the narrative is wrong: Price hasn’t yet proven he can win the big game.

This isn’t to say that Price can’t win a big game, as he was the pitcher on the mound when the Tampa Bay Rays won the American League pennant in 2008 against the Boston Red Sox, but something strange is going on with the southpaw. 

The encouraging thing for Toronto manager John Gibbons is Marco Estrada pitched 7.2 innings in Game 5, so the bullpen got a much-needed break after R.A. Dickey’s disastrous start the previous game. 

Considering that Kauffman Stadium is much more spacious than the Rogers Centre, even with unseasonably warm temperatures expected in Kansas City, offense is likely to be at a premium on Friday night. 

The Blue Jays have a powerful lineup, but they only had four extra-base hits (all doubles) in the first two games of this series at Kansas City. Home runs are great, but as the Royals have proved time after time this season, being able to string together a lot of hits to wear out a pitching staff is just as valuable. 

Royals manager Ned Yost, for whatever reason, has seemed hesitant to go to relievers before his Big Three of Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and Wade Davis. That can work to Toronto’s advantage as long as the hitters make Ventura work deep counts and get him out of the game early. 

Key Game 6 Storylines (Kansas City)

Even though the Royals were unable to close out the series on Wednesday, there is no reason to think they are in serious trouble at this point. They have already beaten Price in the series and, in the event of a Game 7, racked up 11 hits against Marcus Stroman on Monday. 

The one area Kansas City does have to be concerned is starting pitching. Ventura has electric stuff but always seems to be in a constant battle with his command. Things get particularly dicey as teams get additional looks at him, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:

Yet the Royals have never been fazed by what seemed to be apparent shortcomings in their rotation. No one predicted Chris Young would start a game in Toronto, pitch effectively for 4.2 innings in which he allowed just three hits and two runs, and give way to Luke Hochevar for 1.1 innings of shutout baseball. 

Royals manager Ned Yost said after the Game 4 blowout win (14-2) that his team seems to be doing everything right, per Jeffrey Flanagan and Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com:

“I felt great going into this game because we had Chris Young on the mound, and I felt he would give us a really, really good performance,” Yost said. “We like the way we’re playing right now. Our offense has been really, really good.”

Offense has been a story for Kansas City in this series, as the defending American League champions have scored 34 runs in five games. Toronto was supposed to do the mashing after leading all of MLB in runs scored (891) during the regular season. 

Because the Royals are built to make contact—they are the only team to strike out fewer than 1,100 times the past two seasons—they can frustrate opposing pitchers who are used to missing bats. Price was able to work through the lineup quickly in Game 2, but Kansas City’s ability to put the ball in play made its comeback in the seventh inning possible. 

As long as the Royals keep the game close before going to their late-inning relievers, they are going to have a shot because Herrera and Davis are as close to sure things in the postseason as anyone right now. 

Stats courtesy ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Major League Baseball offseason can be as dramatic as the postseason—at least in most years, though this October is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory—providing thrills and heartache for fans and teams in their quests to build championship rosters.

This winter, all eyes will be on marquee names like Toronto Blue Jays ace David Price and New York Mets slugger Yoenis Cespedes, but only a select group of teams will be able to get in on the bidding for those players. The more interesting dynamic at play involves what will happen in the second- and third-tier markets.

Those players aren’t going to draw the same attention but will serve valuable functions for teams that have a strong nucleus in place and need to make a tweak here or there to get over the hump. 

For instance, no one would have expected Kendrys Morales to hit 20-plus home runs with over 100 RBI in the middle of the Kansas City Royals lineup when the team signed him last year, yet there he is, doing just that. 

Such under-the-radar deals can make all the difference when the postseason rolls around, so here are some of the latest rumblings about unheralded free agents and where they could end up before 2016’s spring training begins.

John Lackey to Switch Sides in Rivalry?

The St. Louis Cardinals’ season ended in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs with John Lackey on the mound as the starting pitcher.

Perhaps the script for Lackey will reverse next season. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Cubs could pursue the veteran right-hander this winter.

“It is not out of the realm of possibility that Lackey could wind up with the Cubs next season as a free agent, according to one major league source,” Cafardo noted. “It was Theo Epstein who signed him as a free agent in Boston. Lackey is also a close friend of Jon Lester, who will push Epstein in that direction.”

Lackey played this season under one of the most team-friendly salaries in history. When he originally signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2010, there was a provision in the deal that meant his salary for the final season (2015) would be the major league minimum, worth roughly $500,000. 

The 36-year-old responded by having his best season since he was a Cy Young contender with the Los Angeles Angels, posting a career-low 2.77 ERA and throwing over 200 innings for the first time since 2010. His 3.6 wins above replacement were his most since 2007, according to FanGraphs. 

Adding a veteran starter of Lackey’s ability behind the dynamic one-two punch of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester would make the already formidable Cubs more lethal in 2016, though Lackey is not likely to replicate his numbers from this season, as his 3.57 fielding-independent ERA suggests some regression will come.

Yet even factoring in regression, Lackey is a more reliable option than Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel in the No. 3 spot.

Plus, the Cubs wouldn’t have to break the bank to sign Lackey, since he’s at a point where a three-year deal might be too much for some teams. That works to Chicago’s benefit, because by the time Lackey’s contract ends, young stars like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber will be on the verge of earning big raises through arbitration.

It will be shocking if Lackey doesn’t have a robust market this winter, but the Cubs do have a compelling presentation to make.

Prediction: Lackey signs with Cubs.

Freese High on Angels’ Wish List

David Freese will be one of the most interesting free-agent test cases of the upcoming offseason. The former All-Star has been an above-average hitter in two seasons with the Angels but also missed 69 games during that span.

Injuries have been a problem for Freese, who has played more than 140 games only once since 2010, though that isn’t deterring the Angels from keeping a close eye on the 32-year-old, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.

“When Freese returned, their lineup deepened and their record improved,” Gonzalez noted. “It was no coincidence, which is why the Angels are expected to strongly consider bringing Freese back this offseason—even though they have two promising young players waiting, and even though they’ll have other holes to fill in their lineup.”

Freese also told Gonzalez that his hope is to remain with the Angels, while admitting both sides will have to explore the situation in greater detail over the winter.

“I think they understand that [I want to return],” Freese said. “With that said, a lot of things have to happen on both sides. It’s a new experience for me. We’ll see what happens when the World Series is over and go from there.”

The Angels, like Freese, will be a fascinating study in the offseason. They have an owner in Arte Moreno who will spend money, at times foolishly, in hopes of winning a championship. New general manager Billy Eppler has to establish his own identity while working within the system, especially since Moreno and manager Mike Scioscia are close.

Being able to spend money in smart ways—Albert Pujols still has power, but a 35-year-old first baseman with a .307 on-base percentage who is still owed $165 million through 2021 doesn’t look good—will determine how successful the Angels are moving forward.

Freese was the third-best Angels hitter by OPS+ (109) last season. Like Pujols, he doesn’t get on base at a high rate, but he does provide enough pop (41 extra-base hits, .420 slugging percentage) to warrant a modest two-year deal.

Since the Angels don’t seem likely to undertake even a short-term rebuild, they have to stick with veteran performers on whom they can depend. Freese falls into that category, even if he’s not the impact hitter the Angels hoped they had acquired from St. Louis two years ago. 

Prediction: Freese re-signs with Angels.

Torii Hunter’s Extended Return

When the Minnesota Twins brought Torii Hunter back last winter, it seemed odd that a young, rebuilding franchise would want a 39-year-old outfielder on its roster. 

Then the Twins went out and won 83 games, with a lot of those young players and Hunter working in unison to make it happen.

According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, people in the Twins organization hope to bring Hunter back in 2016.

“Twins people loved the job Torii Hunter did in the clubhouse and are expected to try to bring him back for another year,” Heyman wrote. “Hunter’s influence seems undeniable.”

This is one of those cases in which words like “leadership” and “clubhouse guy” will come up. Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe talked about Hunter’s skills off the field in July with Dave Campbell of the Associated Press.

“The mentality that he brings in, that we’ve kind of embraced, of that short memory, forgetting about yesterday, forgetting about the game that happened an hour ago, that’s something that’s really helped us,” Plouffe said. “That’s kind of been the difference in the team from the years past.”

While those intangibles may hold some type of value, Hunter wasn’t good on the field last season:

Another issue is that the Twins aren’t lacking for outfielders. Eddie Rosario struggled this season with a .289 on-base percentage but is just 24 years old with the potential to get better. Aaron Hicks finally showed flashes of being a capable big leaguer. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton should get a lot of at-bats in 2016, and Miguel Sano, who played mostly as a designated hitter in 2015, is capable of playing right field. 

At Hunter’s age (now 40), his performance isn’t likely to get any better than it was this season, which is a problem, given how talented the young nucleus around him is and what it could be next season. 

The notion of clubhouse chemistry became a hot topic late in the season, with USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale speaking to various players and front-office personnel around baseball about its importance. 

“People that don’t understand what team chemistry means don’t work in baseball,’’ Price told Nightengale. “It makes me mad, because obviously they don’t know how important it is. Ask the Giants. Ask the Royals. Ask the Cardinals.”

No one denies that good relationships between players and coaches help over the course of a season that starts in February and ends in October, but the Giants, Royals and Cardinals are loaded with talent. 

Hunter, at this point in his career, serves no purpose for the Twins on the field. Yet it seems the front office believes in his behind-the-scenes skills so much that it would be a surprise if he doesn’t play one more season.

Prediction: Hunter re-signs with Twins.

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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A fight outside Dodger Stadium after Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday has left one fan with severe injuries.

According to Kate Mather of the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles police officer Matthew Ludwig said as of Monday night the fan “remained hospitalized…in critical but stable condition.”

Per Mather’s report, the fight occurred in the Dodger Stadium parking lot around 10:30 p.m. PT after a “verbal argument” turned physical. Detectives from the LAPD robbery-homicide division are still investigating the case.

Speaking to ABC 7 in Chicago, witness Maria Cerecer said there were people helping the attacked fan by holding rally towels that were passed out prior to the game on the victim’s head. Mather’s report notes Ludwig could not confirm if the fight involved Mets and Dodgers fans.

Dodger Stadium is not immune to violent acts involving fans. In February 2014, Louie Sanchez and Marvin Norwood pleaded guilty to felony charges in the attack of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow that left him permanently disabled nearly three years earlier.

Mather noted the Dodgers have used increased security since the Stow incident in 2011. This latest incident may be the impetus for the team to bulk up security measures around the stadium once again.

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After being shut out Friday, the Chicago Cubs rode a five-run second inning to a 6-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the National League Division Series to even things at one game apiece Saturday.

Jorge Soler provided the big blast in the second, hitting a two-run home run to Busch Stadium’s center field, but Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia opened the door for that inning before that.

Soler, who got the start in right field because Kyle Schwarber struggles against left-handed pitching, rewarded manager Joe Maddon’s confidence by reaching base in all four of his plate appearances (2-for-2 with the home run, a double and a pair of walks). 

Maddon told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune after Game 1 that he wasn’t necessarily committing to playing the 23-year-old.

“It’s possible,” Maddon said. “His attitude has been fabulous. He has been staying ready. He has been a great teammate. He knows what’s at stake. You’ll see him out there at some point.”

Given the mind games Maddon likes to play—there are few managers you would expect to have consecutive hitters bunt, for example—it’s safe to say the Cubs manager was being coy in that situation.

Making his first postseason appearance since 2012, Garcia’s five runs allowed were all unearned. He did have the biggest blunder of the game with an errant throw to first base after opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks’ safety squeeze in the top of the second inning, though.

Garcia came off the mound, looked to first base, then looked to home plate—where Austin Jackson would have been out with a good throw—and finally made a flat-footed toss to first base that sailed wide. Addison Russell followed with another safety squeeze, and Dexter Fowler hit an infield single to give Chicago a 3-1 lead.

Soler’s home run followed for a 5-1 advantage.

Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com noted that Garcia didn’t have many days like this during the regular season:

Soler’s homer was also an anomaly for Garcia this season. Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com noted the southpaw had given up only one long ball in his last 71.2 innings. 

Trevor Cahill was another key piece for the Cubs in Game 2 and could be critical moving forward. The right-hander signed a minor league deal with the team in August, posted a 2.11 ERA in 11 regular-season outings and tossed an eight-pitch eighth inning with two strikeouts Saturday.

The win snapped a long streak for the Cubs, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago noted:

Perhaps this means that pesky 107-year streak without a World Series title will end for the Cubs, who have fate on their side thanks to Back to the Future Part II.

The sad part for St. Louis is the game started wonderfully. Garcia worked a quick first inning, and Matt Carpenter then led off the bottom half of the frame with a solo homer. 

This is a game the Cardinals will look back on if the series doesn’t go in their favor, because their pitching staff was charged with one earned run.

Cardinals communications coordinator Chris Tunno pointed out the bad luck that Garcia seems to have when it comes to poor defensive games in the playoffs:

Kolten Wong made an errant throw on a potential double-play ball immediately before Garcia had his big blunder, so there were plenty of opportunities for the Cardinals to get out of the inning with no more than one run having crossed the plate.

The Cardinals did try to make a comeback, getting back-to-back homers from Wong and Randal Grichuk in the fifth to cut the lead to 6-3, but that was as good as things would get.

However, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale, Wong’s homer did help him tie a Major League Baseball record:

According to the Cardinals’ official Twitter account, Carpenter joined Lou Brock and Fernando Vina as the only players in franchise history to hit a leadoff homer in a postseason game. 

The victory was huge for the Cubs, and not just because they’ll head back home with the series tied. Ace Jake Arrieta, who has given up a total of four earned runs in his last 13 starts, including the NL Wild Card Game shutout against Pittsburgh, will take the mound in Game 3.

In fact, as Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post noted, Arrieta and Cahill can form a good Cubs sales team:

One positive for the Cardinals was that Adam Wainwright was terrific out of the bullpen, striking out three without allowing a baserunner in 1.2 innings. He’s not going to be able to start a game in this series, but manager Mike Matheny could begin to stretch him out for two- or three-inning stints. 

The Cardinals will have an excellent starter in Michael Wacha going Monday at Wrigley Field, but no one on the planet is pitching at the same level as Arrieta right now. St. Louis’ 100-win regular season earned it home-field advantage, but the Cubs have turned the tables. 

After hitting a low point less than 24 hours ago, the Cubs have the series right where they want it. The possible National League Cy Young winner will be on the mound next, and—if it gets that far—Jon Lester will be fully rested for Game 5.

Post-Game Reaction

Since the early bunting turned out to be the story of the game, it’s only fitting that Maddon would address it during his postgame press conference. 

Per 670 The Score, the manager praised his former bench coach in Tampa Bay, Don Zimmer, for the success of small-ball tactics:

Maddon, likely speaking from experience, also had a message for the people out there rooting for his team, via 670 The Score:

This is a special season for the Cubs, who won 97 games for the first time since 2008, and these kinds of years don’t happen often. Even with a terrific young nucleus in place for the future, all that matters is this moment. 

Speaking with all the confidence one would expect after the win, Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo anticipates this is the team’s last trip to St. Louis in 2015, via 670 The Score:

Matheny has his back up against the wall, though he’s starting to play things close to the chest for Game 4, via 670 The Score:

Lance Lynn is the scheduled starter for that game, but a lot will likely depend on whether or not the Cardinals are facing elimination. 

The ball is certainly in the Cubs’ court. Heads were hanging after Game 1, but there isn’t a better 180 than taking advantage of opportunities St. Louis gives you and knowing what is lurking in the shadows roughly 48 hours from now. 

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In the wave of personnel changes in Major League Baseball since the season ended, the Philadelphia Phillies have been quiet in their pursuit of a new general manager, until now.

Continue for updates. 

Phillies Setting Up Interviews

Friday, Oct. 9

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Phillies have scheduled interviews with MLB senior vice president of baseball operations Kim Ng and Cleveland Indians vice president of player personnel Ross Atkins for their vacant GM position. 

Heyman’s report mentions that former Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest has already interviewed with the team and other candidates could be in play as Phillies president Pat Gillick tries to get the right person for the job. 

Former general manager Ruben Amaro lost his job when the Phillies decided not to renew his contract after the season. 

Ng is the most unique candidate because she has interviewed for GM jobs in the past, including having two interviews with the San Diego Padres last year before the team hired A.J. Preller. She is seeking to become the first female general manager in this country’s major sports. 

Heyman also noted that MLB “isn’t thrilled” with the lack of minority candidates interviewing for any openings, with commissioner Rob Manfred quoted in the piece as saying, “diversity…is a high priority for MLB.”

Manfred did add that he was “comfortable” with decisions made by clubs in the past, hiring the person they viewed as the best and most qualified for the job. 

The Phillies are in a unique situation because they have torn everything down and are trying to build it back up. There are still problematic contracts on the roster, notably Ryan Howard, but last year was the first time it appeared there was a conscious effort to replenish the farm system and get younger. 

Philadelphia’s MLB results didn’t look good, posting the league’s worst record (63-99), but the new general manager will walk into a job with some young talent (Aaron Nola, Maikel Franco) in the big leagues and a lot more—notably, shortstop J.P. Crawford—coming through the system. 

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For 22 Major League Baseball teams, all of the focus remains on the field and a quest to win a World Series. The rest of the league is making plans to be where eight teams are at right now, led by the start of free agency in November. 

This is one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory, with a great balance between hitting and pitching. There is no excuse for teams, whether they are in big or small markets, to come out of this winter without having found a way to address their biggest need. 

One big perk of having such a deep and balanced crop of free agents is it works in favor of teams. Simple economics and laws of supply and demand prove that, though in bidding situations, weird things can happen.

Whatever is to come for this year’s crop of free agents, it will be incredibly fun to watch. Until that begins, here’s the latest roundup of rumors and predictions based on what is being talked about.

Giants Prioritize Pitching

One of the least surprising stories as the offseason begins in San Francisco is the Giants are looking to upgrade their starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner is fantastic, but there are a lot of questions without answers behind him.

The biggest question will be if the Giants are able to bring back Mike Leake after acquiring him from the Cincinnati Reds at midseason.

According to Alex Pavlovic of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area, Leake is at the top of San Francisco’s wish list right now: 

The focus will almost certainly be Leake, and the right-hander showed what he can do with a two-hitter in his last start for the Giants. Leake didn’t quite live up to expectations after being acquired from the Reds, but the Giants believe he was hampered by hamstring and elbow issues. Fully healthy at the end of the season, Leake had one of the best performances of his career. 

Without trying to sound condescending, Leake is the kind of pitcher a team needs when it already has Bumgarner at the top. The 27-year-old has become a consistent, valuable presence in a starting rotation over the last four years. 

The Giants have holes in their starting rotation because of free agency (Leake, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong), retirement (Tim Hudson) or age/erratic performance (Jake Peavy, Chris Heston). 

Bumgarner has a way of making things look better—because a true ace can put up such ridiculous numbers, everyone else seems impressive by proxy. 

However, the Giants saw the limitations to that strategy this year. Leake seems like a player San Francisco’s front office won’t lose because of his value to the team moving forward and because the Giants traded two quality minor leaguers (Keury Mella and Adam Duvall) to get him in July. 

Prediction: Leake re-signs with Giants

Orioles’ Plea for Chris Davis

Chris Davis has had a fascinating three-year stretch. He finished third in AL MVP voting in 2013, was a mess offensively in 2014 before being suspended for 25 games after testing positive for amphetamines and missed Baltimore’s playoff run, then hit 47 homers with a .923 OPS in 2015. 

Now, the Orioles’ star first baseman is getting to test the market for the first time in his career. His case will be fascinating to watch play out, as he’s a player who could easily fall on his face again because of his problems making contact. 

However, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, that isn’t stopping Baltimore manager Buck Showalter from pleading with owner Peter Angelos about trying to retain the 29-year-old:

We keep hearing that manager Buck Showalter will make a strong case to owner Peter Angelos to make an effort to re-sign Davis. Davis is essential to allowing the Orioles to be able to compete somewhat with the Blue Jays’ lineup. Losing Davis after losing Nelson Cruz would be a huge blow to the Orioles’ offense. Agent Scott Boras also thinks there’s a chance the Orioles will step up given their resources.

The Cruz aspect of this scenario is interesting because few people would have predicted he was going to follow up a 40-homer season in 2014 with 44 bombs with the Mariners in Seattle this year. 

Davis is nearly six years younger than Cruz and has led the league in homers two of the past three seasons, but that also gives him a lot of leverage in any negotiation because power is always in demand. 

There’s also the matter of how much the Orioles want to invest in offense when their starting rotation finished 22nd in innings pitched and 25th in ERA. This franchise needs to figure out what it’s doing with pitchers from a development standpoint. 

For evidence of that, just look at what the Chicago Cubs were able to do with Jake Arrieta after acquiring him in a trade two years ago, the erratic use of Kevin Gausman between the rotation and bullpen or why top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have been unable to stay healthy since the team drafted them. 

Something has gone completely wrong with Baltimore’s ability to develop high-end starting pitching, which means the franchise has to either change its philosophy with players coming through the system or try to build a rotation through free agency. 

Taking that into consideration, the Orioles seem unlikely to retain Davis even if they are able to afford him. 

Prediction: Davis signs with another team

Marlins Teasing Major Moves

It’s been a few years since the Miami Marlins have gone on a huge free-agent spending spree—last year, the front office did invest a lot of money in locking up Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich—making this winter an opportune time for the front office to tease some big things. 

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins do have some level of interest in two of the better pitchers available this winter. 

“The Marlins like impending free agents Johnny Cueto (Kansas City) and Mike Leake (San Francisco), but they would be too expensive unless Jeffrey Loria is willing to spend a ton,” Jackson wrote. “Numerous cheaper options will be discussed.”

The latter option seems more likely given what everyone knows about the Marlins’ spending habits, though if they are willing to open the checkbooks, Cueto could be on the radar simply because his market is so hard to project. 

Everyone knows what Leake is—a solid mid-rotation starter who will throw 180-190 innings every year—and that kind of pitcher will get $15-16 million per season. 

Cueto has as much upside as any free-agent pitcher this winter not named David Price. He’s finished in the top five of NL Cy Young voting twice, posted ERA totals between 2.25 and 2.82 in four consecutive seasons from 2011-14 and thrown at least 212 innings in three of the past four seasons. 

However, the 29-year-old doesn’t look the part of a workhorse as he ages at just 5’11” and 220 pounds. Pedro Martinez is the gold standard of undersized pitchers who dominated for a long stretch of time, and he performed at an elite level through his age-33 season in 2005. 

Cueto isn’t at Martinez’s level—because few pitchers in baseball history have ever been—and he has already had injury problems. He only made 11 starts in 2013 and missed time earlier this season because of elbow problems. His MRI did come back clean, but the right-hander has looked mediocre in 13 starts with Kansas City. 

At his peak, Cueto could get paid like an ace in the $175-180 million range, but all of the questions make it hard to envision him getting a deal at that level unless a team wants to overpay. 

The Marlins have an ace in Jose Fernandez who looked terrific in the second half after returning from Tommy John surgery, but they could certainly use help behind him. 

If Miami owner Jeffrey Loria gets serious about spending money again—which is a HUGE IF because of his history—Cueto may simply let the Marlins make the highest offer and take it. 

It doesn’t seem like a scenario that will actually happen, but Loria tends to do weird things that leave people throwing their hands up in ways that are good and bad. 

Prediction: Marlins opt for cheaper options

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