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The first postseason baseball game in Canada since 1993 did not go according to plan, as the Texas Rangers knocked off the Toronto Blue Jays 5-3 to take a 1-0 lead in the American League Division Series. 

Yovani Gallardo was tremendous for the Rangers, breezing through the potent Toronto lineup early and limiting the damage in the fourth and fifth innings before giving way to the bullpen. The right-hander allowed four hits and two earned runs in five innings. 

Gallardo has not been a strikeout pitcher this season, posting a career-low 5.9 punchouts per nine innings, which seemed to make him a bad matchup for Toronto’s deep, aggressive, attacking lineup, as noted by ESPN.com’s Tim Kurkjian:

The Blue Jays scored 10 or more runs in a game 26 times; the Rangers were next at 17. The Blue Jays will take a walk, but what separates them from most teams is they will attack early in the count, and unlike most other teams, will ambush first-pitch fastballs. There is no letup in their lineup, and that 40-home run middle of the order—Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion—is a nightmare for opposing pitching staffs. 

However, the best thing a starter who pitches to contact can do is keep the ball on the ground and let his outstanding defense do some work. Gallardo recorded nine of his 15 outs via ground balls.    

Toronto manager John Gibbons noted there was a way to beat Gallardo before the series started, per MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm:

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they weren’t able to figure out Gallardo in time before the relief corps took over. 

Supporting Gallardo was timely hitting, most notably by Robinson Chirinos. The Rangers catcher hit a two-run homer off a fastball from David Price to give his team a 4-1 lead in the fifth inning. Delino DeShields and Adrian Beltre started the scoring with RBI singles in the third inning. 

One key note from Chirinos’ homer is what happened earlier in the at-bat, per baseball writer Molly Knight:

Rougned Odor was a thorn in Price’s side all game, reaching base twice via hit by pitch, and hit a laser home run in the top of the seventh to give Texas a 5-3 lead. 

Per High Heat Stats MLB on Twitter, Odor is the first player with a stat line like that since Alex Rodriguez in the 2009 World Series:

One of the game’s key storylines centered around Price, who has had postseason struggles with a 4.50 ERA in 40 innings coming into Thursday’s start. He battled control problems all game, giving up two home runs and a double in seven innings. 

Per Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs.com, Price’s teams have not found any success in games he has started in the postseason:

Price’s struggles Thursday prompted Marc Normandin of OverTheMonster.com to ask a question about the narrative that will be crafted around the left-hander:

No one will dispute that Price is superior to James Shields in talent, but the small sample nature of October does make it easy to create shortcomings for even the best pitchers (see also: Clayton Kershaw).

While the Rangers can celebrate this win for 24 hours, it was a costly game for both teams. Texas lost Adrian Beltre to a lower-back injury stemming from his slide into second base in the first inning, per John Blake, the Rangers’ executive vice president of communications. 

Meanwhile, the injury bug hit Toronto hard. Josh Donaldson was replaced by pinch hitter Ezequiel Carrera in the bottom of the fifth inning for precautionary reasons, per Chisholm. The presumptive AL MVP took an accidental knee to the head by Odor while sliding into second base in the fourth inning. 

Jose Bautista, who hit a solo home run in sixth inning, left prior to the top of the ninth inning after appearing to injure himself on a swing in the bottom half of the eighth.  

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Donaldson passed concussion tests and that Bautista is expected to play Friday with right hamstring tightness. 

Losing either Donaldson or Bautista on his own would be devastating for the Blue Jays, but ESPN Stats & Info pointed out what that tandem was worth together in 2015:

As long as the Blue Jays can get both of their superstars back for Friday’s Game 2, they can make this a series before heading back to Texas. 

The Blue Jays were an overwhelming favorite coming into the series, but they have work to do against one of the best postseason pitchers in recent memory. Time is still on their side, but that’s dependent on winning Friday’s game. 

The Rangers should have all the confidence in the world now. Gallardo outdueled Price, the bullpen was fantastic after Bautista’s home run with just one single allowed over the final three innings and Cole Hamels is on the mound on Friday. 

Post-Game Reaction

After a difficult loss in Game 1, Gibbons didn’t mince words about what his team is looking at on Friday, via MLB.com’s Richard Justice:

Despite that difficult mountain in front of them, Gibbons also was quick to note the Blue Jays will have a pretty good pitcher going in Game 2 in Marcus Stroman, via Shi Davidi of SportsNet:

As far as the status of Donaldson and Bautista for Friday, Davidi noted Gibbons said Bautista should be fine after dealing with a leg cramp. Per Justice, all Toronto’s skipper could say about Donaldson is they will “see how he is tomorrow.”

On the Texas side, Thursday’s hero Odor told reporters about what he was looking for prior to hitting his home run in the seventh inning, via the Rangers’ official Twitter:

Even though the loss of Beltre may loom large for the Rangers, manager Jeff Banister praised his star third baseman for his toughness in that third-inning at-bat, via Justice:

In many ways, Banister’s sentiment about never counting Beltre out can also apply to the team. The Rangers were supposed to be sellers at the deadline, but acquired Hamels and Jake Diekman to surge in the second half, win the division and carry those good vibes so far to an early DS lead. 

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista will be back in the lineup for Game 2 of the ALDS, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. He was removed from Game 1 after suffering a hamstring injury.

Bautista remains one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball while also being one of the most patient. The six-time All-Star finished the 2015 season with more walks (110) than strikeouts (106) while bashing 40 home runs with a .536 slugging percentage.

The Blue Jays have the league’s best offense, finishing the regular season with 891 runs scored.

Bautista was susceptible to injuries for a two-year stretch, missing 114 games between 2012 and 2013, but he played 155 games last year and was on the field for 153 games this season. Toronto’s World Series hopes likely rest on him staying in the lineup.

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The Texas Rangers may have suffered a serious loss early in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday, as star third baseman Adrian Beltre was taken out after suffering a back injury following an at-bat in the third inning. 

He was not in the Rangers’ lineup for Game 2, but manager Jeff Banister hadn’t ruled the third baseman out of potentially pinch-hitting, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.

Continue for updates.   

Beltre Could ‘Barely Move’ During Game 1

Thursday, Oct. 8

Beltre was diagnosed with a back strain, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, who added there was no structural damage.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted the Rangers were astonished he was able to swing a bat and drive in a run, given his state. “Assistant GM Thad Levine guessed Beltre had one swing in him. And we saw it,” Rosenthal reported.

According to Jason Beck of MLB.com, Beltre could “barely move” as he was standing behind second base between innings at the Rogers Centre. Gordon Edes of ESPN.com noted the All-Star third baseman was emotional after he came out of the contest. Also from Edes, who cited Texas Rangers public relations man John Blake, Beltre was initially injured following a first-inning slide into second base. 

Beltre lined an RBI single to center field in the third inning off Toronto starter David Price to give the Rangers a 2-0 lead, but he essentially waddled to first base because of the injury. 

How Beltre’s Injury Would Impact Rangers

The Rangers have battled their way into the postseason despite injuries all year, but Beltre’s absence could be devastating if he has to miss extended time. The 36-year-old finished the season on fire, hitting 10 of his 18 home runs between August and October. 

Texas does have solid depth with Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder surrounding Beltre in the lineup, but it will be impossible to replace his value offensively and defensively. Hanser Alberto stepped in for Beltre during Game 1.

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Dan Jennings’ tenure as manager of the Miami Marlins lasted just four months, as the team will not bring back the first-year skipper in 2016.   

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported that Jennings would not return as manager.

However, per Spencer, Jennings’ tenure with the organization may not be over, as Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill would like the 55-year-old to move back to his original post as general manager. 

Jennings took over the Marlins in May after Mike Redmond was fired. He proceeded to lead the team to a 55-69 record over the final 124 games, as the Marlins finished 2015 with a 71-91 overall mark. 

It’s been clear the Marlins were going to make a managerial change for some time. They talked to Manny Acta on Sept. 22, according to ESPNdeportes.com’s Enrique Rojas, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reported Dusty Baker is a “very strong candidate.”

Going back further, a separate report from Spencer in early September noted that Miami officials were going to ask Jennings to leave his post as manager:

Sources said the relationship between Jennings and Loria has become increasingly strained over the course of the team’s disappointing season. Jennings could return to the front office, but not necessarily as general manager.

Jennings has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for the Seattle Mariners’ GM vacancy, though the Mariners have not yet asked permission from the Marlins to speak with him.

Jennings had served as general manager for the Marlins since the end of the 2013 season, leading the charge for several key moves over the past two years, including Giancarlo Stanton’s record extension.

As the season wore on with the Marlins continuing to fall further and further below .500, Jennings told Spencer there were a lot of reasons why things fell apart: “There’s enough blame to go around here. There’s been so many things that these guys have had to endure this year, injuries being a part of it, underperforming before a part of it. They’ve endured a managerial change. Is there something that you can directly point to? No.”

The Marlins have become one of the most dysfunctional franchises in sports. Owner Jeffrey Loria has burned his share of bridges, but the next manager in Miami is hardly inheriting an empty ship. 

When Stanton is healthy, he’s one of the best power hitters in baseball. Dee Gordon was one of the biggest surprises this season, hitting .333 and stealing 58 bases. Christian Yelich is an excellent hitter who got on base at a .366 mark this season. Starting pitcher Jose Fernandez looked terrific after returning from Tommy John surgery. 

Being able to work with that nucleus will certainly be enticing for any managerial candidate, though being able to have full support from the owner and general manager will be the big challenge in Miami. There’s talent to work with, but the Marlins have to supplement it in the right ways. 

Jennings, who had no previous managerial experience, was unable to handle the in-game portion of managing. The Marlins were able to recognize that and made a needed change to hopefully avoid another messy situation in 2016. 

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Ichiro Suzuki‘s career will continue for at least one more season, as the Miami Marlins agreed to a new deal with the veteran outfielder Tuesday.

The Marlins confirmed the deal, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, while Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted it’s a one-year deal worth $2 million.

The 41-year-old former American League MVP had an unusual 2015 season. He played in 153 games, his most since 2012, but he had the worst offensive season of his career with a .229/.282/.279 slash line.

Ichiro does remain a strong defensive presence in right field, as FanGraphs credited him with saving nine runs.

Various injuries to Miami outfielders, most notably Giancarlo Stanton, provided the opportunity for Ichiro to play as often as he did.

There has never been any indication Ichiro wanted to bring his career to a close. David Waldstein of the New York Times noted the 10-time All-Star jokingly said last season he plans to play 10 more years.

The Marlins also saw the versatility Ichiro brings to the table. He was able to pitch in an MLB game for the first time in the season finale against the Philadelphia Phillies, firing a slider that would make a lot of pitchers jealous, per MLB Social:

All kidding aside, there is one big milestone Ichiro can shoot for in his return to Miami. He needs 44 more hits to pass Pete Rose (4,256) on the career hit list—Ichiro had 1,278 hits in Japan—and 65 to reach the 3,000-hit mark as a Major League Baseball player.

The Marlins should start 2016 with a full complement of starting outfielders, led by Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, so Ichiro’s playing time out of the gate could be limited.

However, just as an opportunity arose this year, Ichiro understands none of Miami’s starting outfielders have a long track record of staying healthy. He’s going to have plenty of chances to play in 2016 to reach his milestones while hoping to get one more shot at the postseason.

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One year after Matt Williams was named National League Manager of the Year, the Washington Nationals announced Monday they’ve fired Williams after a disappointing 2015 season that saw the team miss the postseason with an 83-79 record:

The Nationals began 2015 with World Series aspirations. Mike Oz of Yahoo Sports noted as recently as early June that oddsmakers had Washington as the odds-on favorite to win Major League Baseball’s biggest prize.

As the season moved along, the Nationals were plagued by so many injuries that it was difficult to overcome the New York Mets in the National League East. Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister all spent time on the disabled list.

It didn’t help Williams’ cause that his questionable tactics and strategy, especially late in games, seemed to do more harm than anything else to his team.

There are many examples of Williams’ poor strategy to choose from, but Ted Berg of For The Win singled out what may have been the final straw, involving Rendon, from an early September series against the Mets:

Rendon is the Nationals’ second best player, and though he has missed most of the season with injuries, he has been hot at the plate for over a month now. Heck, he entered that at-bat with two hits already in the game. And so Williams’ decision to let Rendon try to give himself up — even as he worked the count to his favor and kept squaring to bunt on 2-1 and 3-1 counts — looks awful. Egregiously bad.

Fan frustration began to set in, as Williams was routinely booed by Nationals fans during games. This became an untenable situation for the manager and the franchise, so a change seemed inevitable.

While the Manager of the Year award is often handed out based on team record, rather than an indicator of actual skill at the job, Williams isn’t the first person to be fired by a team within a year of being awarded the trophy. Joe Girardi was fired by the then-Florida Marlins in October 2006, one month before he was awarded NL Manager of the Year.

The Nationals hired Williams even though he lacked previous managerial experience. He did lead the team to the postseason in his first season, so there were certainly good things he did along the way.

While it ultimately fell apart for Williams in Washington, he now has a better understanding of what the job entails and can be better prepared for the next position that comes his way. The best chance to prove people wrong is with a fresh start.

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As the Seattle Mariners begin to evaluate things to prepare for 2016, the fate of manager Lloyd McClendon remains up in the air with new general manager Jerry Dipoto. 

Continue for updates. 

Dipoto Undecided on McClendon

Saturday, Oct. 3

According to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale, there are conflicting feelings between Dipoto and other executives about what the future holds for McClendon in Seattle:

McClendon, who was hired by the Mariners in Nov. 2013, has had a disappointing run as manager. He led the team to an 87-75 record last season, finishing one game behind Oakland for the second wild-card spot. 

Things fell apart in 2015 for the Mariners, who enter the season’s final two days with a record of 75-85, marking the sixth time since 2008 they will finish with a losing record. 

ESPN’s Jim Bowden noted that he spoke to Dipoto recently, with the Mariners new GM saying he wanted to take some time to get to know McClendon before making any final decision. 

Seattle is in a tenuous position heading into next season, as the team will clear nearly $45 million in payroll from 2015. Dipoto has a lot of decisions to make about the coaching staff and 25-man roster to get the team back in playoff contention. 

McClendon’s future will be determined by how well he is able to connect with Dipoto on a baseball level. He’s a veteran manager with seven years of experience under his belt going back to his days in Pittsburgh, but the lack of success in that time does leave him with a lot to prove in the meeting room.   

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All eyes will be on free agents like David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jason Heyward this offseason, but considering the limited number of Major League Baseball teams able to get in a bidding war for that trio, under-the-radar stars and bounce-back candidates are more valuable commodities.

There are signees every winter who don’t draw many headlines, yet manage to end up looking great in hindsight. Jung Ho Kang was an unknown commodity coming over from South Korea, yet turned out to be the second-best National League shortstop as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015. 

Considering the Pirates can’t get in bidding wars for top players, Kang‘s contract for $11 million over four years gives the franchise a lot of flexibility to upgrade other areas of need. 

This year’s crop of free agents is a deep group, with a strong split between pitchers and hitters, so there will be plenty of opportunities for teams to choose from. 

With very-early rumors starting to trickle out, here are the underrated stars who are already starting to attract attention. 

Gerardo Parra, OF (Age: 28)

Gerardo Parra was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles before the July trade deadline in an effort to shore up their porous outfield situation. Instead, the 28-year-old seemed to make things worse, at least offensively, with a .574 OPS in 51 games. 

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Parra, who was having a career year with Milwaukee before being traded. 

Ultimately, Parra‘s pace with Milwaukee was too good to be true and his current output with Baltimore is just one of those random baseball variances that can happen. He’s still at an age and has enough of a track record to think he will return next year closer to his .728 career OPS. 

In terms of suitors, James Wagner of the Washington Post speculates the Nationals could be a good landing spot for Parra because of his relationship to key members of the front office:

(General manager Mike) Rizzo was the Diamondbacks scouting director when Parra was signed out of his native Venezuela in 2004, and (manager Matt) Williams was on the coaching staff there when Parra patrolled the outfield and won two Gold Gloves. Even after Rizzo moved to Washington and took over the organization, the Nationals remained interested in Parra.

A big part of Parra‘s value is his ability to play all three outfield positions. The Nationals have to deal with possibly losing center fielder Denard Span this offseason. Jayson Werth will still be occupying left field, barring some team willing to trade for him and take on the final two years of his contract. 

Some guy named Bryce Harper is in right field and may have that job locked down for a couple of years. Michael Taylor was given an extended look this season due to Span battling injuries, showing stellar defensive chops with minimal offensive upside.

Even though Parra has played all three outfield positions, he’s best suited to a corner. From 2013-14, he ranked second behind Heyward among right fielders in FanGraphs‘ defensive value. 

Given how Parra ended this season and his limited offensive upside, the Nationals could sign him on a cheap deal for one or two years. 

Assuming they have to start 2016 with Werth in left field, Parra can play well enough in center field. He’s not a difference-making star, yet hits for average with enough power to be a solid offensive contributor with strong defensive chops in the right position. 

Prediction: Nationals sign Parra to one-year, $10 million deal

Doug Fister, RHP (Age: 31)

Doug Fister picked a bad year to battle injuries, lose his spot in Washington’s rotation and post the worst ERA of his career, as the soon-to-be free agent has gone from earning a solid four- or five-year deal to possibly having to settle for a one- or two-year contract. 

The good news is that makes Fister a great commodity, especially since he had a strong five-year track record before things fell apart in 2015. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, averaging only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.

Fister‘s success depends on his ability to pepper the strike zone and generate ground balls, making him an ideal candidate for a team in need of starting pitching help that already has a strong defense in place.

According to Jeff Blair of SportsNet.ca, the newly crowned American League East champion Toronto Blue Jays “will make a play” for Fister. 

The Blue Jays don’t figure to have much of a shot at retaining Price, unless ownership is so energized by this postseason run that they give general manager Alex Anthopoulos around $210 million-$215 million to invest in the left-hander. 

As a result, Anthopoulos will have to get creative to avoid a decline next season. Fister isn’t a No. 1 starter, but can be a high-end No. 3. Toronto isn’t an elite defensive squad but is good enough, ranking middle of the pack in FanGraphs‘ defensive value and 10th in defensive runs saved.

By comparison, Washington’s 2015 defense has cost the team 12 runs.

With Marcus Stroman back and making a strong impression and R.A. Dickey providing solid innings, Fister can slot in right as the No. 3 in this rotation, knowing the Blue Jays will score a ton of runs and be able to compete for another division title in 2016. 

Prediction: Blue Jays sign Fister to two-year, $22 million deal

Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP (Age: 34)

The Seattle Mariners are entering a new era with Jerry DiPoto as general manager, hoping to finally live up to the hype that was around them coming into 2015.

Yet one key piece of the equation is scheduled to hit free agency, Hisashi Iwakuma. The 34-year-old has been nicked up this season, making 19 starts, but has still posted strong strikeout (7.6 per nine innings) and WHIP numbers (1.052). 

DiPoto told ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden that Iwakuma is going to be a priority for the Mariners this offseason. 

Iwakuma‘s contract is going to be interesting because he’s an older free agent, so his leverage isn’t as strong as a typical pitcher with his credentials. He does keep good company in the ERA category, per Gary Hill of Mariners.com:

The Mariners are in a good position to spend money this offseason, as Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists them as having $78.9 million on the books for 2016, down from the $123 million mark when this season started. 

However, included in Bowden’s piece, DiPoto emphasized the need to build a team that’s suited to Safeco Field and building a better defensive outfield. It’s reasonable to expect the M’s to make a run at outfield upgrades for all three positions, which will take a lot of money. 

Plus, it’s not like the Mariners are lacking starting pitching. Felix Hernandez remains one of the best in the business. Taijuan Walker needs to get more consistent, but showed a lot of progress this season. James Paxton will always have erratic control and needs to stay healthy, but lefties with his stuff are hard to find. 

Prediction: Iwakuma doesn’t re-sign with Seattle.

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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After spending nine years in the Atlanta Braves front office, John Coppolella has been named the team’s general manager. 

The Braves announced the move on Thursday.

According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Coppolella gains the official title of GM, even though he’s basically been in the role since last September. 

“When the Braves dismissed Frank Wren as their GM on Sept. 21, 2014, they opted not to fill his position immediately,” Bowman wrote. “[President of Baseball Operations John] Hart was given his current title and the assignment to help mold Coppolella as he served as an assistant GM, performing many of the same duties as a GM.”

Bowman noted that Coppolella was the driving force last offseason behind trades involving Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, et al. 

Coppolella has clearly earned the trust of his bosses, as Hart told Bowman last November the new GM was one of the main reasons he wanted to work in Atlanta:

I think Coppy is a big reason why I took this job. I’ve had a lot of people in the [GM] family tree, if you will. I’ve had a lot of young guys who have come through the office [and become GMs]. Coppy is really good. I’m telling you, he is really good. I think you’re going to see a young man who is really going to develop and grow.

Even though the Braves are enduring their worst season (64-94) since 1990, it’s by design. Ownership slashed payroll in an effort to gain more flexibility heading into the 2017 season, when the team’s new ballpark opens in Cobb County. 

Considering how long Coppolella has been with the Braves, no one knows the current talent and minor leaguers better than him. He’s already shown an ability to be aggressive and bold with his moves, even if they aren’t popular with the fanbase. 

Times will be tough for the Braves again in 2016, but Coppolella has talent like Freddie Freeman, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran and Andrelton Simmons to build around. His biggest challenge will be getting the right young stars around those guys to return the franchise to prominence soon. 

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Even though free agency in Major League Baseball is one of the most exciting times of the year for fans and players, it’s also one of the most painful and arduous if you fall into the former category. 

There’s so much hearsay and speculation about where an impact hitter or pitcher could end up that it only leads to heartbreak when the dreaded “mystery team” shows up to spoil everything. 

Of course, fans of smaller-market teams have grown accustomed to the pain of free agency. Even great-run franchises, like the Kansas City Royals, have to know that Johnny Cueto‘s potential asking price will be far more than they can afford. 

Yet for all the pain that can come with free agency, the winter is when fans are at their most optimistic because all 30 teams are making moves, large or small, to make that postseason push and hopefully play for a World Series in 2016. 

Taking a look at the list of free agents this offseason, it’s going to be a busy and expensive time for a lot of teams.

Note: Players with options (Zack Greinke, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, etc.) are not included on free-agent list.

There are a lot of names, both at the top and secondary guys, who should provide great value both in 2016 and beyond.

Looking at the potential market for all of the stars, these are the few who appear to be locks to sign with a new team this winter. 

Johnny Cueto, RHP (Kansas City Royals)

No free agent this winter will be as frustrating to figure out as Cueto. The right-hander has shown in the past he can be dominant, boasting two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting (2012, 2014). 

However, there are a lot of maddening stretches with Cueto where he’s either unable to pitch due to injury or looks pedestrian. 

Take for instance the stark contrast between what Cueto has done in 2015 with Cincinnati and Kansas City:

Basically, Cueto has provided the same value in Kansas City that a replacement-level pitcher would have. It is a small sample size, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.55 is actually better than what it was with the Reds (4.14). 

The postseason will really determine if Cueto is going to be the second- or third-best pitcher available. David Price is a lock in the top spot and seems likely to get a near-record deal. Jordan Zimmermann is in the mix with Cueto for that second spot. 

Last year, the Royals knew they likely weren’t going to re-sign James Shields, but it likely became easier to let him walk when he posted a 6.12 ERA in the playoffs. 

Cueto also has to fight against being short. He’s a 5’9″ right-hander, and that kind of pitcher doesn’t traditionally age well. Tim Lincecum (5’11”) was basically done at the age of 28. 

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote on Sunday that there are teams that have concerns about Cueto‘s ability to stay healthy over the course of an entire season.

“He’ll have to convince shoppers this offseason that he’s physically fine,” Cafardo wrote. “There will likely be a lot of medical attention devoted to Cueto. One AL executive stayed away from Cueto at the trade deadline because of a possible elbow issue.”

The hope for a team will be that Cueto is on the Pedro Martinez career arc, in which Martinez stayed at an All-Star level through his age-33 season before injuries took away what made him great. 

However, that’s not exactly the kind of player who figures to get a huge six- or seven-year deal. Cueto could do well on a four-year deal with some kind of vesting option for a fifth year based on number of starts and/or innings pitched. 

That makes finding a potential suitor difficult, especially since the major-market teams in need of pitching all figure to be in on Price and Zimmermann. 

One team that makes sense is San Francisco. The Giants will have at least two holes in the rotation to fill with Tim Hudson retiring and the Lincecum era likely ending, but they also have free agents like Ryan Vogelsong and Mike Leake to worry about. 

Madison Bumgarner is the only safe bet to be in the Giants rotation next season. Chris Heston is a back-end starter, at best, and Jake Peavy, 34, really doesn’t offer much at this stage of his career. 

Even if Leake re-signs, the Giants still need a strong No. 2 starter to plug in behind Bumgarner. Cueto could thrive back in the National League in a big park with a solid defense behind him. 

San Francisco has about $57 million coming off the payroll this offseason, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, so general manager Brian Sabean should have plenty of room to play with. This franchise has won three titles since 2010 largely around great starting pitching and solid offense. 

Prediction: Cueto signs with Giants for four years, $110 million.

Justin Upton, LF (San Diego Padres)

Even though the San Diego Padres’ spending extravaganza last winter turned out to be a bust, Justin Upton’s performance in 2015 might actually work in his favor. 

That’s unusual to say because Upton’s .790 OPS will be his worst in a full season, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows how impressive the 28-year-old has actually been. 

Upton’s biggest problem in 2015 has been hitting left-handed pitching (.191/.258/.300), but that doesn’t line up with what he’s done throughout his career against southpaws (.273/.380/.506). This seems like one of those weird one-year outliers that can happen in baseball. 

Another reason to be optimistic about Upton’s future is playing in Petco Park is a hitter’s nightmare, yet he’s still slugging .454 overall and has hit 15 of his 26 homers at home. Putting him in a different park should easily get him into 30-homer territory for the first time since 2011. 

Padres general manager A.J. Preller told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com in August that the team will look to keep Upton beyond this season. 

“He’s definitely going to be one of the options we talk about,” Preller said. “He’s made a very positive impression here. We’re going to sit down in the offseason and see what we can do with him.”

Unless the Padres just dwarf every other offer, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Upton returns. 

Instead, let’s look at the other side of the country with the Baltimore Orioles losing virtually their entire roster this winter. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, $77 million is coming off the payroll. 

The Orioles have to remake their roster this winter, though they will have core players like Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Kevin Gausman to work with. Gausman‘s development as a starter next season will be critical because there is no pitching coming.

Top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey can’t stay healthy, so their potential arrival in the big leagues is a mystery. Baltimore’s front office will likely prioritize starting pitching over offense, but Orioles’ left fielders in 2015 have a combined slash line of .212/.289/.352.

Even better news is no one else in the American League East should be seeking help in left field. New York has Brett Gardner. Boston is building around a slew of young outfielders. Toronto has Ben Revere for another two years. Tampa Bay can’t afford Upton, even if it wanted to make an offer. 

Prediction: Upton signs with Orioles for six years, $115 million.

Doug Fister, RHP (Washington Nationals)

Doug Fister is a free agent I wanted to include because he’s going to be a pitcher every team has a chance to sign. The 31-year-old has been bad this season, which works to the advantage of teams. 

For the first time since 2010, Fister will finish a season with a below-average ERA+ (95), and he does have injury concerns after spending time on the disabled list each of the last two seasons. He’s been taken out of Washington’s rotation, making one start since August. 

James Wagner of the Washington Post did rave about Fister‘s two-inning relief stint against Baltimore on Sept. 22:

An effective sinker from Fister is what teams want to see at this late date. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, so keeping the ball on the ground is what he needs to do. His ground-ball rate this year of 44.6 percent will be his lowest since his rookie season in 2009. 

Given the way everything has fallen apart for Fister in 2015, he seems like a candidate to sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal and hit the market again next winter to get one long-term deal before his prime years pass by.

If that turns out to be the case, the field is open for all 30 teams to get in on the bidding. A perfect landing spot for the right-hander would be Kansas City. 

The Royals should be looking for starting pitching for the second consecutive offseason. A team can only count on Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen and Chris Young for so long. 

Fister‘s knack for letting hitters put the ball in play would fit beautifully with the Royals because of how great the defense is. They’ve proven this year that it’s possible to be a great team without a starter whom anyone would classify as a quality No. 1 or 2 on a playoff team. (Cueto does fit in that category, though he played most of this season with Cincinnati.)

Since the Royals can’t play with the major-market teams, they have to find bargains wherever possible. Their philosophy of building around speed on offense and a defense that can cover a ton of ground will appeal to many ground-ball-type pitchers whose overall talent won’t get them a huge contract. 

Prediction: Fister signs with the Royals for one year, $10 million.

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com. 

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