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The Cleveland Indians can complete their miracle October run with a World Series title if they can defeat the Chicago Cubs in Game 5 at Wrigley Field on Sunday night. 

The Indians will hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, who will be looking to redeem himself after struggling through Game 2. The right-hander lasted just 3.2 innings, allowing six hits, two walks and two runs while throwing 87 pitches in a 5-1 loss. 

The Cubs will counter with Jon Lester, who is coming off his worst start of the postseason in Game 1. He battled a tight strike zone and some erratic command while giving up three runs on six hits and two walks in 5.2 innings.

Preview

Bauer has had one of the most interesting postseasons in recent memory, though the same can be said for the Indians given the way manager Terry Francona has essentially pieced together a starting staff behind Corey Kluber. 

There’s no other way to classify Bauer’s first World Series start than bad. He was constantly shaking off catcher Roberto Perez, seemingly unsure of how he wanted to attack the Cubs and couldn’t put them away when he got to two strikes. 

Kris Bryant singled and Anthony Rizzo doubled after Bauer got to two strikes in the first inning to put the Cubs on the board, giving starter Jake Arrieta breathing room to work with. 

If one were to try putting a less negative spin on Bauer’s evening, it was his first real start since Game 1 of the division series against the Boston Red Sox. He attempted to start Game 3 of the American League Championship Series before his lacerated pinkie started pouring blood, causing him to be removed after 21 pitches. 

Speaking after Game 2, Perez told reporters he felt Bauer was affected by essentially having three weeks off between starts.

“I think so,” Perez said, per ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand. “Having not thrown in a week or so, I don’t know. I have confidence in him that he is going to bounce back.”

However, citing ESPN Stats & Info, Marchand noted Bauer was not coming anywhere near the strike zone with a lot of his pitches: 

More than a third of his 87 pitches were at least a foot-and-a-half off the center of the plate, which ESPN Stats & Information calls non-competitive pitches. There were 32 of them, and the Cubs were more than willing to watch them sail on by. Bauer leaned on his fastball, which the Cubs keyed in on after getting ahead in the count. 

The Cubs are the wrong team to try throwing a fastball by, which is why we have seen the Los Angeles Dodgers and Indians feed them a steady diet of offspeed pitches in the last two series.

As Clayton Kershaw found out in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, if your breaking ball isn’t going anywhere near the strike zone and you are forced to throw fastballs, the Cubs will go to town. 

This home run from Rizzo is evidence of how dangerous the Cubs can be when they can sit on the heater:

One thing the Cubs should not have to worry about on Sunday is Lester. He didn’t have his sharpest command in Game 1, but his worst inning was in the first after recording two easy outs.

The two runs Lester gave up in the opening frame came on a swinging bunt by Jose Ramirez and hitting Brandon Guyer with a pitch, so it’s not as if the Indians were scorching the ball against him. 

Any talk of the yips for Lester as it pertains to his inability to throw the ball to first with a runner on base is ludicrous, though Chicago White Sox announcer Ken Harrelson told Teddy Greenstein of the Chicago Tribune it’s a hurdle:

I feel bad for him. You look at Steve Sax or Chuck Knoblauch, they had mental blocks on throwing. One of our guys, Clayton Richard, couldn’t throw to first base.

Lester has the yips, no question. Doesn’t make him a bad guy. And I know one thing: He doesn’t have the yips throwing 60 feet, 6 inches. That’s what [Cubs manager] Joe Maddon is worried about.

Throwing to first is clearly not something Lester wants to do, but there’s no evidence his performance suffers as a result.

The Dodgers tried to distract Lester in Game 5 of the NLCS, with Enrique Hernandez dancing as far off the base as possible without trying to steal, yet he allowed just one run on five hits in seven innings. 

Lester is excellent at limiting stolen bases by being quick to the plate, and catcher David Ross is fantastic at getting rid of the ball quickly, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com noted during that fifth game against the Dodgers:

Because Lester is so good at limiting baserunners anyway, his “yips” about throwing to first base rarely play a big role in the outcome. 

The Cubs have a decided advantage on the mound in Game 5, making this their game for the taking in order to send the series back to Cleveland on Tuesday. 

Prediction

Nothing about this postseason has made much sense. The only discernible pattern is that scoring first essentially guarantees a victory, though that didn’t hold in Game 4, as the Indians responded with seven runs after the Cubs took a 1-0 lead in the first inning.

This is the kind of game Lester was signed to pitch for the Cubs. He’s not going to be overwhelmed by the pressure of keeping his team’s season going. His postseason resume has been fantastic, with a 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 124.2 innings.

It stands to reason that, at some point, Chicago’s offense will break out of its malaise, so what better time than against the one Cleveland starting pitcher they have already gotten the better of in this series.

Prediction: Cubs 6, Indians 2

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After letting their pitching do most of the work through the first three games of the 2016 World Series, the Cleveland Indians let their bats put them one win away from a championship with a 7-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs in Game 4 on Saturday night. 

Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis had the big blasts, with the latter being a three-run shot in the top of the seventh inning that put the Indians up 7-1. 

The Cubs couldn’t have asked for a better start to the game. They jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning when Dexter Fowler doubled to lead off and was driven in on Anthony Rizzo’s RBI single. 

Considering how overmatched the Cubs looked against Cleveland starter Corey Kluber in Game 1, those two hits and an early lead were a huge step in the right direction. 

Getting off to such an opening this postseason has been the successful formula for both of these teams. The Cubs had won their previous five playoff games when scoring first. 

The Indians made sure things would not be that easy. Santana, who was starting at first base and hitting cleanup in place of Mike Napoli, tied the score with a home run that cut through the wind at Wrigley Field. 

That would not be the only run Cleveland got against John Lackey in the second inning.

After the Cubs intentionally walked Tyler Naquin to pitch to Kluber, Cleveland’s ace worked an eight-pitch at-bat before hitting a swinging bunt that led to a bad throw to first base from Kris Bryant and allowed Lonnie Chisenhall to score. 

Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com had fun with Kluber’s hitting stats this season after the single:

The Indians tacked on another run against Lackey in the third inning after Kipnis doubled to lead off and Francisco Lindor singled. 

It was Lindor’s first RBI of the World Series, with Baseball Tonight noting it was also a historic one from the young shortstop:

Kluber soon continued his postseason excellence. After allowing two hits and one run in the first inning, Cleveland’s ace held the Cubs to three over the next five. He wasn’t quite as sharp with his command as Game 1, but he worked around damage at key moments.

For instance, Rizzo doubled to start the sixth inning but was left stranded at second when Ben Zobrist flied out, Willson Contreras struck out and Addison Russell grounded out. 

With the Indians needing to keep a close watch on Kluber’s pitches for another potential start on three days’ rest if the series is extended to seven games, he was lifted after six innings. The right-hander allowed five hits and struck out six Cubs. 

T.J. Zuppe of 92.3 The Fan provided the updated postseason stat line for Kluber after Saturday:

The Indians knew coming into the playoffs they needed Kluber to essentially fulfill the role Madison Bumgarner played for the San Francisco Giants in 2014. So far, so good. 

Skip Bayless of Fox Sports 1 offered this assessment of the series so far:

The news was not all good for Cleveland, though no one is likely to complain. Andrew Miller, who had never given up a run in his playoff career coming into Saturday’s game, allowed a leadoff homer to Fowler in the eighth inning.

Meisel provided the heavily inflated ERA for Miller after giving up the blast:

It was a curious decision by Cleveland manager Terry Francona to have Miller pitch two innings in a game his team was winning by six runs. The big lefty threw 27 pitches one night after appearing in Game 3 for 17 pitches. 

From a Cubs perspective, while the pitching was not good, the offense remains a huge problem. ESPN’s Freddie Coleman provided the information everyone in Chicago can see:

Looking ahead to Sunday’s fifth game, the Cubs are set up well to at least send the series back to Cleveland. Jon Lester will take the mound for his second start of the World Series. He did battle through 5.2 innings in Game 1, allowing three runs on six hits, but he still struck out seven. 

The Indians will counter with Trevor Bauer, who struggled in Game 2. The right-hander gave up six hits, two runs and two walks to go with two strikeouts in 3.2 innings. 

Lester has the playoff resume, with a 2.60 ERA in 124.2 career innings. He’s the guy the Cubs want on the mound in this spot. It’s on him to deliver to keep Chicago’s dream season alive for at least one more game.

Postgame Reaction

Even though the Indians are riding high after their third win of the World Series, Kluber made sure to note they can’t get complacent now, per Jordan Bastian and Carrie Muskat of MLB.com: 

I think we like the position we’re in, but the task isn’t done yet. We still have one more game to win, and I think we’re gonna show up tomorrow and we’re gonna play with the same sense of urgency that we’ve played with to this point. We don’t want to let them feel like they’re building momentum or getting back in the Series.

Francona echoed the sentiments of his star pitcher. 

“Nothing changes,” Francona said, per Bastian and Muskat. “We’re going to show up [on Sunday]. The only thing that changes is we’ll pack our bags, because we’re going to go home one way or the other. We’ll show up and try to beat a really good pitcher [on Sunday], and that’s what we always do. Nothing needs to change.”

Kipnis, who grew up a Cubs fan and was born in Northbrook, Illinois, tried to explain what hitting a home run in the World Series at Wrigley Field meant to him, per Meisel:

Cubs manager Joe Maddon acknowledged his team’s defensive miscues but once again emphasized the offense needing to step up. 

“So we made mistakes,” Maddon said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). “Absolutely, we made mistakes tonight. That was part of it. But then again, we just have to do more offensively to give ourselves a chance.”

Maddon did take comfort in knowing he will have Lester on the mound in Game 5. 

“To have a guy who’s [a] been-there, done-that kind of a guy and been very successful, been a World Series champion, he knows what the feeling is like—he knows what it takes,” Maddon said, per Jamal Collier of MLB.com. “It’s definitely comforting to the rest of the group for [Sunday].”

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The World Series between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs rolls on Saturday night from Wrigley Field with the Indians looking to take a commanding 3-1 series lead following their tension-filled victory in Game 3.

Josh Tomlin, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen combined to allow just five hits as the Indians recorded their MLB-record fifth playoff shutout in a 1-0 win Friday. 

The Cubs continue to search for answers on offense after scoring a total of five runs through the first three games, all of which came in Game 2.

The Indians will send ace Corey Kluber to the mound for the second time in the series, while the Cubs will counter with the battle-tested John Lackey for his first appearance since Game 4 of the National League Championship Series on October 19.

Preview

There was never any doubt about Kluber being Cleveland’s ace during the season, but his importance to the team amplified exponentially when Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco were injured in September and consequently unable to start in the playoffs. 

Kluber has been exactly what Indians manager Terry Francona has needed through four playoff starts, including Game 1 of the World Series, when he tossed six shutout innings and had the Cubs constantly off balance. 

The 2014 AL Cy Young winner has allowed two runs and 17 hits with 29 strikeouts in 24.1 innings against the Cubs, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in October. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Kluber set a new World Series record in his first three innings of work on Tuesday:

Considering that the Indians will have to use Trevor Bauer on short rest in Game 5 and, if necessary, Josh Tomlin in Game 6, they can’t afford any kind of hiccup from Kluber in this spot. 

The key for Kluber, just as it was in Game 1, will be establishing his two-seam fastball on the inside part of the plate against Chicago’s left-handed hitters. 

The only real problems for the Cubs this postseason have come when they are going up against top-of-the-rotation starters. In five games started by Kluber, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill, they have only scored runs in two of them. 

Against all other starting pitchers prior to Friday, the Cubs had scored a total of 43 runs in seven games.

Cleveland’s nine wins this postseason came when it scored first, which is a testament to how well the starters have fared overall and how dominant the back of the bullpen with Miller and Allen has been. 

While Miller has earned most of the accolades for his performance, including being named the American League Championship Series MVP, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated pointed out Allen has been his equal this postseason:

If Kluber can once again provide six strong innings of work, allowing Francona to immediately ride Miller and Allen for the final four innings, the Indians will likely be happy with the final result. 

Lackey will be making his third postseason start for the Cubs. He pitched four innings in each of his first two outings, with the Cubs able to win both times, including Game 4 of the NLCS, when they were trailing 2-1 in the series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

One big factor for Lackey on Saturday night will be pitching at Wrigley, the first time he’s done that this postseason. The 38-year-old was much better at the friendly confines in 2016 than he was on the road. 

Cubs manager Joe Maddon has already shown this postseason he won’t hesitate to pull Lackey from a game, no matter how much the right-hander might protest.

Following Lackey’s start in Game 4 of the NLCS, Maddon explained he doesn’t care how much his pitcher might yell when he decides to go the bullpen, per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago:

You have to understand I’m dealing with some really highly charged personalities here, guys that have been there, done that. They’re good and they’re very proud men, so I respect and understand all of that. But at the end of the day, it’s about more than just one person here and what we’re trying to get done.

This will be the only game of the series in which the Indians have a decided edge on the mound, even with Kluber working on short rest. He only needed 88 pitches to get through six innings in Game 1, so it’s not as if Francona is overworking his horse. 

Prediction

Because the Indians are sending their No. 1 starter up against the Cubs’ No. 4, this is a game the American League champions absolutely have to win. 

The Cubs were held in check on Friday, but their lineup is capable of putting up a lot of runs in a short amount of time. They did it against the Dodgers when they were trailing in the NLCS, scoring 23 runs in the last three games to secure a spot in the World Series. 

However, the Indians have homed in on something this postseason that’s worked against high-powered offenses in Boston and Toronto. That trend has continued in two of the three World Series games thus far.

Kluber has been virtually spotless in October, with Miller and Allen both likely available for multiple innings once again. There will be more offense from both teams, but Cleveland will find a way to come out on top.

Prediction: Indians 5, Cubs 3

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The song remains the same for the Cleveland Indians in the 2016 World Series, as they used outstanding pitching and timely hitting to secure a 1-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs and a 2-1 series lead. 

Cleveland also set a new Major League Baseball record in the process, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian:

Despite the wind blowing out at Wrigley, offense was nearly impossible to come by for both teams. The Indians had ample scoring opportunities against Kyle Hendricks, putting their leadoff hitter on three times in the first five innings, but were undone by two double plays. 

Hendricks was pulled with one out in the fifth inning and the bases loaded. Francisco Lindor, who was 2-for-2 at that point, grounded into an inning-ending double play to preserve the scoreless tie. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Indians were able to avoid double plays throughout the postseason before Friday:

On the Cubs side, they didn’t create scoring opportunities against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin. They mustered just two hits and one walk on the right-hander in 4.2 innings.  

This was Tomlin’s third postseason start, and he’s only allowed nine hits and three runs in 15.1 innings. There were big questions about Cleveland’s starting depth behind Corey Kluber when the playoffs began, but Tomlin has given manager Terry Francona exactly what he’s needed. 

Per CBS Sports’ Jonah Keri, Tomlin’s success was dictated by his ability to mostly avoid the middle part of the plate:

Tomlin was pulled before the fifth inning was completed because the Cubs got Jorge Soler to second base. Andrew Miller was brought in to keep the game scoreless, which he was able to do when Miguel Montero lined out to right field. 

The Indians finally broke through in the top of the seventh inning when Coco Crisp delivered a pinch-hit RBI single that scored Michael Martinez for a 1-0 lead. 

Per Baseball Reference, Crisp became just the fourth player in the last 16 years to record a pinch-hit go-ahead RBI:

However, the downside for that was Cleveland had to remove Miller after he threw just 17 pitches and struck out the side in the bottom half of the sixth to make it happen.

In case you were wondering, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted out the still-ridiculous numbers for Miller this postseason:

Cody Allen was still lurking in the ‘pen, but Francona went with Bryan Shaw in the seventh inning. 

The Cubs were given a gift with two outs when Cleveland right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall misplayed a ball off the bat of Jorge Soler that was scored as a triple. But Javier Baez grounded out to end the threat. 

Shaw recorded five outs before a two-out single in the eighth inning by Dexter Fowler sent Francona to the mound for Allen to record the last four outs. 

There was plenty of drama in the bottom of the ninth inning against Allen. Anthony Rizzo led off with a single and was lifted for pinch-runner Chris Coghlan. Ben Zobrist struck out and Willson Contreras grounded out, leaving Jason Heyward with a shot at redemption for his forgettable debut season in Chicago. 

Heyward did reach base after Cleveland first baseman Mike Napoli was charged with an error trying to corral a difficult hop, leaving runners on first and third for Baez. Allen got Chicago’s young star to chase a high fastball for strike three to end the game. 

The Cubs bats have been silenced through three games in this series, even factoring in their five-run output in Game 2, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Bleacher Report’s Danny Knobler noted the Cubs also tied a 111-year-old record with their loss on Friday:

Even though the Cubs playing their first World Series game at Wrigley in 71 years was the dominant story before first pitch, Cleveland’s continued excellence on the mound remains the biggest story of the postseason. 

Joe Posnanski of NBC Sports is marveling at what the Indians have done given the competition they have faced:

That pitching has been necessary because Cleveland’s offense has scored a total of 35 runs in 11 playoff games. 

This game couldn’t have worked out better for Francona heading into Game 4. Corey Kluber, who threw just 88 pitches in six shutout innings in Game 1, will start. Miller will likely have no restrictions after throwing fewer than 20 pitches on Friday after not pitching the previous two days. 

The Cubs will counter with John Lackey, who has given up five runs in eight innings this postseason. It’s the only game of the series in which Cleveland will have a decided advantage in the pitching matchup, which makes Friday’s win even more crucial for the American League champions. 

The Cubs were just in this position during the National League Championship Series and proceeded to rattle off three consecutive wins, starting with a 10-2 victory in Game 4 when Lackey started. 

In other words, this series remains far from over. 

Postgame Reaction

The Indians were in unfamiliar territory playing in a National League park, which led to Francona navigating his bench with multiple double-switches that left him little wiggle room in the event the game would have gone to extra innings. 

Francona was aware of the situation he put his team in with all of the moves made during the game. 

“We needed to win that game in 9 [innings],” Francona said after the win, per Nick Camino of WTAM 1100. 

Cleveland pitching coach Mickey Callaway offered high praise for the work being done by Francona in this postseason. 

“He almost used some guys tonight that weren’t on the roster,” Callaway said, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. “There’s no better manager than him.”

Tomlin, who once again continues to defy all expectations this October, said there was no magic formula for holding the Cubs at bay in Game 3. 

“Just kind of knowing what the game plan was going in, and just trying to execute,” Tomlin said, per Bastian and Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “You leave the ball over the heart of the plate with those guys, they can put up a crooked number in a hurry. So it was about trying to execute pitches and keep them off balance as much as I could.”

Cubs manager Joe Maddon did have some criticism for the way his offense went about attacking Cleveland’s pitching.

“I thought it was a well-played game,” Maddon said, per Bastian and Muskat of MLB.com. “I thought we played great defense again tonight. We were just out of the zone way too often. We’ve got to get our strike zones organized offensively, and if we do, we’ll be fine.”

In their Game 2 win, the Cubs were able to work eight walks against Indians pitchers to go along with nine hits. They had just one walk Friday. 

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Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis suffered an ankle injury while celebrating his team’s American League Championship Series victory. However, he has been cleared to return.

Continue for updates.

Kipnis Active vs. Cubs

Tuesday, Oct. 25

The Indians announced that Kipnis is in the starting lineup for Tuesday’s game.

Image of Kipnis’ Injury Revealed

Tuesday, Oct. 25

Francona Comments on Kipnis’ Injury

Monday, Oct. 24

According to the Associated Press (h/t Sports Illustrated), Indians manager Terry Francona said Kipnis rolled his ankle while embracing Francisco Lindor as the team celebrated its ALCS victory over the Toronto Blue Jays.

The manager described the setback as a low ankle sprain.

Kipnis Has Been Essential Piece in Indians Lineup

Kipnis went through a brief down period in May, when his on-base percentage was just .306, but he bounced back with an .876 OPS in June and looked more like the hitter who was named to the All-Star Game in 2015. He finished the season with 23 home runs, 82 RBI and an .811 OPS.

The Indians have needed Kipnis’ production in the No. 2 spot in their lineup behind Carlos Santana as the primary leadoff guy and to help set the table for Lindor and Mike Napoli in the heart of the order.

Cleveland is fortunate to have the versatile Jose Ramirez, who had a breakout offensive season with a .363 on-base percentage and is capable of playing multiple positions in the infield, including second base.

However, the loss of Kipnis would have been devastating because of his importance to the lineup and underrated defense. FanGraphs‘ defensive value metric ranks Cleveland’s second baseman as the third-best defender at the position behind Boston‘s Dustin Pedroia and Detroit‘s Ian Kinsler.

The Indians need their full assortment of hitters in the World Series to support a rotation that features Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin. Kipnis is a key reason for Cleveland’s success in 2016.

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The 2016 World Series could be set on Saturday night with the Chicago Cubs looking for their first berth in the Fall Classic since 1945 with a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

While the two National League teams continue to duke it out, the American League champion Cleveland Indians patiently wait to know who their opponent will be when the best-of-seven series kicks off on Tuesday from Progressive Field. 

Cleveland has already had a year to remember with the Cavaliers winning their first NBA title in June. The Indians will look to join them and end their own 67-year championship drought. 

2016 World Series Schedule

Player to Watch: Andrew Miller

Baseball is a sport designed to make it nearly impossible for one player to carry his team in a way that can happen in the NBA or NFL. 

While Andrew Miller needed help from the Cleveland starting staff to put the team in a position to use him to protect a lead, he has been operating at a video-game level throughout this postseason, with Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports providing the statistical evidence:

It’s fun to see those numbers, but they somehow look more impressive when you are able to see the weapons Miller is using to destroy hitters. 

This is what Miller did in the seventh inning of Game 2 against the Toronto Blue Jays, via MLB.com:

If the Dodgers end up coming back to defeat the Cubs in the NLCS, good luck to them trying to attack Miller. 

It’s no secret that Los Angeles’ lineup has had problems against left-handed pitching in 2016. The group had a collective .213/.290/.332 slash line versus southpaws, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Things are so bad for the Dodgers against lefties they had Carlos Ruiz hit in the cleanup spot against Jon Lester in Game 5 of the NLCS with the hopes he could provide a spark. 

The Cubs would be an interesting matchup for Miller because they were dynamite against left-handed pitching this season with an .807 OPS, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Miller has been an immovable object in his playoff career with six hits and three walks allowed with 31 strikeouts in 20 innings. 

Cleveland’s starting pitching depth was a question entering the postseason. Corey Kluber has been terrific in his first postseason with a 0.98 ERA, 20 strikeouts, 13 hits allowed and seven walks in 18.1 innings. 

But Indians manager Terry Francona has not had anyone else in his rotation make it through the sixth inning. His bullpen is deep enough to get by with starters who go four or five innings, but someone in the rotation not named Kluber will need one strong start if Cleveland is going to win the World Series. 

It also helps Miller succeed because the longer a starter goes, the fewer outs Francona has to bridge before he can just use Miller and Cody Allen to record nine outs. 

Better Matchup for Cleveland

As mentioned above, the Dodgers would serve as a more favorable matchup for the Indians in the World Series. 

Beyond the Miller factor, Andrew Simon of MLB.com noted how Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts could be in a bind with his rotation if the Dodgers win their next two games:

Los Angeles opted not to push ace Clayton Kershaw into another short-rest outing in NLCS Game 5, instead starting Kenta Maedaand slotting Kershaw in for Game 6 at Wrigley Field. That means that while the Indians will have time to align their starting rotation any way they choose for the Fall Classic—presumably with Corey Kluber at the front—the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to go to Kershaw until Game 2 on short rest or Game 3 on regular rest.

The Dodgers would also turn to Rich Hill against the Cubs in a potential seventh game, so Cleveland could avoid their two best pitchers until Games 3 and 4. 

In case you didn’t know based on the current NLCS results, Kershaw, Hill and Kenley Jansen have been the only things slowing down the Cubs, per Rany Jazayerli:

That won’t necessarily be the case for the Cubs if they are to play the Indians, because Francona can turn to Miller or Allen in the later innings, whereas Roberts has been throwing out Joe Blanton and Pedro Baez. 

But another obstacle for the Indians is that Cubs manager Joe Maddon has a deep rotation he can utilize however he wants. Jon Lester is on track to start Game 1 if they advance, while Jake Arrieta would presumably go in Game 2 and Kyle Hendricks, who will start against the Dodgers Saturday night, in Game 3. 

The Indians do have the luxury of home-field advantage in the series, which is not insignificant. They have yet to lose at Progressive Field in the playoffs and are tied for the AL’s best home record at 53-28. The Cubs were a modest 46-34 on the road compared to their MLB-high 57 home wins. 

The Dodgers were just 38-43 on the road during the regular season, though they have won three of their first five games away from Los Angeles in the postseason. 

It’s hardly a secret that the Cubs were the league’s best team in 2016. They were one of three teams to score at least 800 runs and led the league with a 3.15 ERA and defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in a short series—few people were predicting Cleveland to get past the Boston Red Sox in the division series, let alone make it to the World Series—but the Indians’ simpler route to a title would go through Los Angeles. 

Of course, given the injuries Cleveland has overcome this season and in the playoffs to even reach this point, difficult tasks don’t seem to phase this team. 

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The 2016 Major League Baseball playoffs are nearing an end, and the Chicago Cubs are seeking to clinch their first World Series berth since 1945 with a victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday. 

The Cubs are on the cusp of fulfilling the promise they showed during the regular season when they won an MLB-best 103 games, though they will have to do something no one has been able to do this postseason: beat the Dodgers in a game started by Clayton Kershaw.

Fortunately, the Cubs have the luxury of playing at home in front of what’s sure to be a raucous and passionate crowd in Wrigley Field and the knowledge they have two chances to win one game. 

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians sucked some drama from the American League by reaching the World Series with a 7-1 combined record against the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. They wrapped up the AL title on Wednesday, giving them five days to rest before hosting the Fall Classic on Tuesday. 

Before moving ahead, let’s look back at how the three teams still playing for a championship have arrived at this point. 

LCS Results

Cleveland’s Unique Path

It’s fitting that this Cleveland team has overcome injuries and adversity in October because the season started with significant questions about the offense as a result of All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley’s shoulder. 

Brantley was limited to 11 games during the regular season before his shoulder flared up, requiring another surgical procedure in August.

September looked like a nightmare month for the Indians, despite them never losing their grip on first place in the American League Central. Danny Salazar’s arm flared up, and he hasn’t pitched since September 9. Carlos Carrasco’s season ended on September 17 due to a broken pinkie following a liner off the bat of Ian Kinsler. 

Yet that September 17 game helped set the stage for what MLB fans saw in Game 3 of the ALCS. On that day against the Detroit Tigers, eight relievers combined for 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 win. 

Trevor Bauer was forced out of Game 3 against the Blue Jays after recording two outs due to the stitches breaking on his pinkie. Manager Terry Francona used six pitchers to get the final 25 outs in a 4-2 win for a commanding 3-0 series lead. 

Cleveland made history in that game, with ESPN’s Cristian Moreno providing this statistical nugget:

While Cleveland’s entire relief corps has opened a lot of eyes this postseason, the unit is being led by the dominating effort of ALCS MVP Andrew Miller. 

Richard Justice of MLB.com provided Miller’s final stat line from the ALCS:

Because of the injuries to the Indians’ rotation, Francona has often relied on Miller and Cody Allen to record nine outs this postseason. 

Per Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports, the combined numbers for Miller and Allen in eight playoff games for the Indians have been incredible:

They have needed the pitching staff to be that good because the lineup isn’t putting up gaudy numbers. In five games against the Blue Jays, Cleveland’s offense scored 12 runs on 25 hits, and seven of those runs came on six homers.

It’s easy to get away with little offensive production when the pitching staff has three shutouts in eight games, but the Indians will likely need more of a spark with the bat if they hope to capture the franchise’s first World Series since 1948. 

Of course, if Miller and Allen remain unhittable, the Indians could keep doing exactly what they have done through two playoff series. 

Dodgers vs. Cubs

The story of this year’s NLCS boils down to what the Cubs have done against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenley Jansen. 

Los Angeles’ Big Three has combined to allow five hits, three walks, no runs with 18 strikeouts in 16.1 innings this series. In three games the Dodgers have lost thus far, their pitching staff has given up 35 hits and 26 runs. 

Kershaw continues to change the (ludicrous) narrative about his inability to pitch in the postseason based on what he was able to do against the Cubs in Game 2.

Unfortunately for Kershaw, because the Dodgers are staring elimination in the face, no one will remember that brilliant effort if he doesn’t duplicate it on Saturday night. 

When the Cubs went down 2-1, there was talk of an offensive slump that were nearly as ludicrous as those previous narratives about Kershaw. Everything gets heightened in the postseason, but judging baseball teams on any two-game stretch is insane because it’s a game built on peaks and valleys. 

Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com also helped illustrate why the Cubs were unable to hit in Games 2 and 3:

They didn’t hit against Kershaw and Hill because no one hits against that duo. That’s not an exaggeration, as both left-handers hold opponents to a sub-.200 batting average, per FanGraphs.

The Cubs aren’t lacking in the pitching department. Jon Lester gave them the edge in the series with seven brilliant innings of work in Game 5, in which he allowed five hits and one run with six strikeouts. 

Of course, as noted by Christopher Kamka of Comcast SportsNet Chicago, Thursday’s outing from Lester has been par for the course since the All-Star break:

The Dodgers don’t figure to see Lester again in this series, though Cubs manager Joe Maddon could opt for an all-hands-on-deck approach if it goes to a seventh game on Sunday. 

Kyle Hendricks will start Game 6, with Jake Arrieta ready for Game 7 if necessary. Hendricks was the hard-luck loser against Kershaw in Game 2, with his only mistake in 5.1 innings being a solo homer from Adrian Gonzalez. 

Hendricks didn’t look sharp in that outing with four walks, but he worked around them by allowing just three hits and striking out five. 

One thing that works to the Dodgers’ advantage is they don’t have to face a left-handed starter. Their team OPS was 150 points higher against right-handed pitching (.772) than left-handed pitching (.622) this season, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

With Kershaw on the mound in Game 6, the Dodgers don’t have to light up the scoreboard to keep their season alive. They just need to find a way put the Cubs in an early hole that leaves them searching for runs against the best pitcher in baseball. 

Odds are firmly in the Cubs’ favor right now, but the Dodgers’ pitching lines up perfectly to give them a shot at challenging Cleveland for the World Series. 

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Miguel Cabrera has been the face of the Detroit Tigers since they acquired him before the 2008 season, but with the franchise boasting a large payroll featuring a lot of players over the age of 30, the two-time American League MVP could find himself on the trade block this offseason.  

Continue for updates. 

Tigers Open to Trades

Friday, Oct. 21

Per ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Tigers are willing to listen to offers for everyone on their roster, including Miggy.

The key phrase there is “willing to listen.” There’s a difference between taking a phone call when an opposing general manager asks about a player and actively shopping a player. 

The Tigers are in a difficult spot right now. They won 86 games in 2016, finishing two losses out of a wild-card spot, so it would be easy for general manager Al Avila to make a few tweaks in hopes of making a playoff push next season.

Per MLB.com’s Jason Beck, Avila said at his end-of-year press conference the Tigers want to add more youth and be able to run an organization “without having to go over our means.”

At some point, though, the front office can’t continue to spend so much money. The Tigers spent $198.5 million on payroll in 2016 and have $176.2 million on the books for 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 

Cabrera is signed for $212 million through 2023 with vesting options for 2024 and 2025 at $30 million per season, so if he makes it all the way through his deal, he will be 42 years old. 

While he is still a great hitter, posting his eighth straight season with at least a .300 average and .500 slugging percentage, owing a player who is already 33 years old that much money over such a long period is a way to cripple the payroll. 

It’s a bad time to trade Cabrera because of his age and what he’s still owed, especially since the Tigers could seek multiple top-tier prospects in exchange for him. But Avila has to try whatever he can to help the team keep pace with the Cleveland Indians in the American League Central. 

With players such as Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Jordan Zimmermann all on the wrong side of 30, this Tigers are built around an aging core that’s not going to have many years of peak performance left. 

A team needs to take drastic measures when it is spending more than it ever has without making a playoff appearance since 2014. Exploring the market for a hitter like Cabrera would fall into that category. 

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As the Cleveland Indians await the winner of the National League Championship Series between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2016 World Series picture is starting to come into focus before Game 1 on October 25. 

The Indians secured their spot in the Fall Classic by defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in five games during the American League Championship Series. Andrew Miller was named MVP of the series, but Ryan Merritt’s heroics in Game 5 set up the big left-hander to get the ball to closer Cody Allen in the ninth inning. 

The Cubs offense had its breakout game against the Dodgers in Game 4 on Wednesday and will look to take control of the series on the back of Jon Lester, who has allowed nine hits and one run in 14 innings this postseason. 

World Series Schedule

World Series Odds

Prediction

One of the things that makes sports predictions such an interesting source of discussion is the use of logic and reason with something that often defies both. 

For instance, there’s no way to explain how the Indians have made it this far. They were supposed to be eliminated in the division series by the Boston Red Sox because their starting rotation was a shell of its former self due to injuries sustained by Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. 

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote September 17—the day Carrasco’s pinky was broken on a liner hit by Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler—the Indians’ postseason dreams ended before they began:

Along with Corey Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar are the heart of the rotation. Carrasco and Salazar have had star-crossed seasons to be sure. They’ve each missed a month to injuries, but they still combined for 22 wins, 50 starts and just over 283 innings.

The Indians have no one of equal caliber to replace them.

Headed into the best-of-five AL Division Series, it’s going to be Kluber and Trevor Bauer. The other two starters are Josh Tomlin and rookie Mike Clevinger. That’s reality and that means a quick exit in the postseason.

No one gave the Indians that memo because their entire pitching staff has recorded three shutouts in eight playoff games, including a 3-0 victory over the Blue Jays in the ALCS clincher. 

Somehow, what was overlooked coming into the postseason was how well Cleveland manager Terry Francona utilizes his bullpen and how deep that group is. 

Miller got all of the accolades for what he did against Boston and Toronto, but Richard Justice of MLB.com noted Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen have been really good too:

Since the Indians were able to clinch early, they get to line up Kluber for Game 1. Bauer’s pinky once again takes center stage, casting doubt over his ability to make at least one start in the series. 

For Cleveland fans, the best-case scenario in the NLCS would be the Cubs and Dodgers going seven games with the Dodgers winning. That would presumably push Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill back to start Games 2 and 3. 

The Cubs, who showed they do have weaknesses by not hitting in two games against Kershaw and Hill, bounced back with 10 runs in Game 4 of the NLCS. 

Just as encouraging as the deluge of runs was for Cubs fans, ESPN Stats & Info noted why it was particularly sweet for Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell when they hit their homers:

While Chicago will always panic when the Cubs don’t look good for a couple of games—ignoring the fact that those games were against the best pitcher in baseball and another guy who had a 2.12 ERA in 20 starts this season—they are still the best and deepest team in baseball. 

Even when the Cubs are in an offensive funk, Lester and Kyle Hendricks have combined to allow four runs in 23 innings this postseason. Their defense has never wavered from the historically great regular-season numbers they put up, per ESPN’s Sam Miller:

The Cubs — a team with only one Gold Glove winner on the roster, a team that shifts less than any in baseball — are better than any other club at converting ground balls into outs (80.1 percent), the best at converting fly balls into outs (94.1 percent) and the best at converting line drives into outs (43.5 percent). They do this despite allowing an exit velocity that is almost exactly league average, and an exit velocity on grounders that is harder than league average. 

No team in Major League Baseball this season had as many ways to beat an opponent as the Cubs. They will be favored over the Indians if they can get past the Dodgers and should be. It’s hard to win 103 games during the regular season by accident. 

Forget all the talk about goats and curses in Chicago. This is a franchise that’s become the model in MLB because of its young position player talent and the incredible wealth of options for manager Joe Maddon to choose from off his bench and on the pitching staff. 

The Indians’ run so far in the postseason has been wondrous to behold because of how unique it is. Since the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off a historic comeback against the Golden State Warriors, these last four months have breathed new life into a city so often beaten down by its sports teams. 

Eventually, you would assume, Cleveland’s patchwork pitching rotation will run out of steam, negating the work of Miller and Allen in the middle and late innings. 

It’s certainly not impossible to win a World Series on the back of a bullpen—the 2015 Kansas City Royals did it—but it’s awfully hard, especially if the team on the other side of the field is the Cubs. 

Prediction: Cubs win World Series in six games

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs return to action on Sunday for Game 2 of the National League Championship Series with a stellar pitching matchup featuring Clayton Kershaw against Kyle Hendricks. 

Kershaw has been a true horse for the Dodgers so far in the postseason, pitching three times against the Washington Nationals in the division series. 

The Cubs got back to work on Saturday night in front of a raucous Wrigley Field crowd hoping to see the franchise make its first World Series appearance since 1945. 

Dodgers Key to Game 2: Ride the Horse

The narrative around Kershaw in October has been one of failure in the past, though his postseason resume doesn’t jive with that convenient story. He’s had bad games that have ballooned his ERA, sure, but virtually every other stat looks like what you’d expect from the best pitcher in baseball. 

Kershaw has already given the Dodgers everything they could possibly hope for this postseason. He threw a total of 211 pitches in two starts against the Nationals on just three days of rest, then came in for a two-out save in the decisive Game 5 with one day of rest. 

The good news for the Dodgers is Kershaw will essentially be starting this game on regular rest. He only needed seven pitches to close out the game on Thursday, which basically equates to a light bullpen day. 

Even though Kershaw‘s injured back during the regular season likely cost him a shot at the Cy Young Award, it may have indirectly been beneficial for the Dodgers in the postseason. He was only able to make 21 starts covering 149 innings in the regular season. 

In those previous years when Kershaw has struggled in the postseason—most notably 2013 and 2014 against the St. Louis Cardinals—he made a combined 60 starts covering 434.1 innings. It’s hardly a surprise that he hit a wall by mid-October. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, there was one common denominator in the Dodgers’ three victories against the Nationals:

The Dodgers pitching staff is a mess right now. Kershaw is the one sure thing. Rich Hill is an effective starter, but continuing to start him on short rest with his long injury history is asking for trouble. Everything behind those two is essentially manager Dave Roberts praying for four solid innings. 

It’s a formula similar to what the Cleveland Indians are working with, except Roberts doesn’t have the bullpen depth Terry Francona has to play with. Closer Kenley Jansen is brilliant, but the gap to get from starter to him has been a problem in the playoffs. 

For instance, Kershaw was charged with five runs in Los Angeles’ Game 4 win over the Nationals. He left the game with a 5-2 lead and the bases loaded before Pedro Baez and Luis Avilan allowed those three runs to score and tie the game.

Ultimately, the Dodgers will have to keep using Kershaw as much as possible if they want to shut down a Cubs team that led all of Major League Baseball with 103 wins during the regular season and features a relentless offensive attack that can strike at any time. 

Cubs Key to Game 2: Patience is a Virtue

There are really no weaknesses to the Cubs in 2016. They finished in the top three in runs scored, OPS, ERA, shutouts, opponent batting average, opponent OPS and WHIP. 

Per Sam Miller of ESPN.com, this year’s Cubs have a strong claim as the best defensive team in MLB history:

The Cubs have converted 74.5 percent of balls in play into outs this year, which is what Baseball Prospectus calls Defensive Efficiency. (Rephrased: Opponents are hitting .255 on balls put in play against the Cubs.) That’s not just the best in baseball this year. Adjusted for era, it might be the greatest defensive season ever, with the gap between the Cubs and the second-best team this year topping the spread between the next best and the 27th best.

That defense is a big reason why Hendricks will at least end up in the Cy Young conversation, if not become the second straight Cubs pitcher (Jake Arrieta) to win the award. His stuff doesn’t intimidate anyone with a fastball that averages 89.7 mph, per FanGraphs.com. 

But Hendricks is able to get away with the lack of velocity because his changeup is so good and the defense is able to convert so many of the ground balls hit into outs. 

Looking at all of those factors, there really doesn’t have to be one specific key for the Cubs to win any game in this series. 

Yet going up against Kershaw, the easiest way to earn a victory is knocking him out of the game early to get into that Dodgers bullpen. 

Taking pitches against Kershaw can lead to a lot of quick outs because he pounds the strike zone so well, but the Nationals were able to make him work in his two starts against them. He needed 101 pitches to finish five innings in Game 1. 

Roberts stuck with Kershaw for 110 pitches in Game 4 because he didn’t want to use his bullpen. The Cubs faced a similar situation in the division series against the Giants. 

Matt Moore held the Cubs in check for eight innings in Game 4, leaving with a 5-2 lead and seemingly on the verge of forcing a winner-take-all fifth game. But after Moore threw 120 pitches, Giants manager Bruce Bochy turned to his shaky bullpen and the Cubs woke up with four runs for a 6-5 win. 

Jansen is a vastly superior closer to Sergio Romo, but the Dodgers relievers and setup men have not given Roberts many reasons to feel confident so far this postseason. 

The sooner the Cubs can get Kershaw out of the game, the easier their path to victory will become. 

Series Prediction

Until the Cubs show that they aren’t the best team in baseball, there is no reason to bet against them. Fans and analysts can play up curses and 108 years of history all they want, but none of that is relevant to this collection of talent.

Most teams have one or two ways, at best, you can specifically point to for why they will win a game or series. The Cubs can win games in any fashion. They can win a slugfest with their offensive talent, a bullpen game with their deep stable of relievers or a low-scoring battle between two starting pitchers. 

The Dodgers’ formula is to get at least 25 great innings out of Kershaw, which will only happen if the series goes seven games, and hope Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez hit like All-Stars. 

Prediction: Cubs in six

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