Kuzul

While most of Major League Baseball’s free agent activity generally doesn’t occur until after Thanksgiving or even until the winter meetings, which start on December 9, the Philadelphia Phillies have been active nonetheless in the open market thus far. They’ve inked outfielder Marlon Byrd to a two-year, $16 million contract and also re-signed catcher Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million deal.

Where does that leave the Phillies? At the moment, their starting lineup is practically set, barring any other moves yet to come. Byrd is likely to start in right field, and the only way that changes is if the Phillies felt comfortable that Byrd could start in center and they sign another right fielder, or if a center fielder himself is signed. Regardless, that could potentially bode poorly for incumbent center fielder Ben Revere.

As it stands, the Phillies are likely not playoff contenders, and the signings they’ve made will not bring them any closer to the promised land that is October baseball. But they still need a veteran reliever or two and possibly a starting pitcher as well. Simply put, pitching is now the priority.

But who’s out there? The starting pitching market is flush with options, but this being free agency, said options won’t come cheap. And when the best starting pitcher available isn’t even found stateside yet, you know you’re dealing with a weak market.

Concerning the relievers, one of the top options in Joe Smith recently signed a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels, while Lynn Henning of The Detroit News reported that the Detroit Tigers were moving closer to a deal with reliever and former closer Brian Wilson.

If the Phillies still believe that delving into free agency is their best fit, their options are limited at best. Most of the starting pitchers left require the surrender of a draft pick. For the Phillies, the good news is that their first-round pick is protected, so they would only lose their second-rounder should they sign someone attached to draft pick compensation.

However, Matt Garza lacks the qualifying offer attached to the aforementioned compensation, so in that regard he could be attractive to the Phillies. And if the Phillies are willing to spend a little extra, Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka could be posted for and signed at some point. Going the route of relievers, Edward Mujica, Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour remain as the top setup men, though all three closed last year and could be seeking closer roles and corresponding money.

Considering that the Phillies have already handed out $42 million to two players this offseason and just over $16 million per season for luxury tax purposes, their payroll remains sky-high without a full roster to complement it. This scenario may force the Phillies to dip their toes into the trade market, which is much more flush with talent but also has a higher premium to obtain it.

That doesn’t mean that there are some options out there for the Phillies, though. If the Phillies want to go all-in, they could try to acquire left-handed ace David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays, though it would require the Phillies to trade their top two or three prospects and then some. That means that Maikel Franco, Jesse Biddle and possibly J.P. Crawford would be on the move in addition to some of the Phillies’ other top prospects.

Chances are that other teams can best the Phillies’ prospect package for Price, meaning that the Phillies should and would likely look a little further down the ladder. But who might that include?

From a rotation standpoint, names like Brett Anderson of the Oakland A’s, Brandon McCarthy of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs‘ Carlos Villanueva could all make sense. Each would come at different prices and the most expensive would likely be Anderson, who’s younger than the other two and also has a club option for 2015. The other two would be free agents after 2014, which would give the Phillies some rotation flexibility in the future as their prospects get closer to reaching the majors.

Yovani Gallardo could also be a possibility, though his reputation might be more valuable than his production at this stage of his career. Although he’ll turn just 28 years old in February, he could require a hefty prospect package in return for his services. Especially considering that the team trading him away is the Milwaukee Brewers, who lack a deep farm system, the return could be even higher.

From a reliever standpoint, Matt Belisle of the Colorado Rockies and Luke Gregerson of the San Diego Padres could make sense from the right side, while Joe Thatcher could be a solid southpaw option. All would also be free agents after 2015, though, so while that aspect would appeal to the Phillies from a rotation standpoint due to prospect depth, the same can’t be said for the bullpen. The Phillies need more plausible depth since most of the younger relievers have not panned out.

Thus, relievers like Casey Fien of the Minnesota Twins and Mike Dunn of the Miami Marlins could make more sense. Both are under team control for at least three years, with Fien under team control through 2018. Their returns could be slightly costly, but neither should command anything inconceivable.

In brief, the trade market is in flux and more will be clear at and after the winter meetings. For now, we can only speculate, but the above options all would make sense in some regards if the Phillies don’t make any moves in free agency. As we’ve seen in the past with general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., though, we just don’t know what he’ll do, good or bad.

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Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies jump-started both their offseason and that of the entire major leagues, striking first to sign outfielder and former Phillie Marlon Byrd to a two-year, $16 million contract. Byrd, who hit 24 home runs in 2013, is one of the less expensive sources of right-handed power, and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. felt compelled to sign him quickly for that reason.

What Amaro may not have considered as much was that Byrd is 36 years old and is coming off a season that is hard-pressed not to be deemed an anomaly at this point. Given that Byrd was terrible in 2012 and was suspended 50 games for a banned substance, $8 million a year for two seasons—with a third-year option—is a bit excessive, to say the least.

Each free agent has his pros and cons, and it’s Amaro‘s job to judge them before pursing a player extensively. Whether he did that with Byrd is immaterial now, but he can make sure that he does his due diligence before signing any more free agents to major contracts.

With that in mind, here are the pros and cons of five top offseason targets for the Phillies.

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The offseason ahead will potentially be one of immense surprise for the Philadelphia Phillies, for a few reasons. First and foremost, the oft-mentioned television contract situation will near its climax, as the Phillies are expected to sign their new, multi-billion dollar TV deal within the next month, according to CBS Philly.

In addition, the Phillies are close to hiring a much-needed statistician, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. While that alone is unlikely to alter the dynamic of the Phillies front office, it should influence future contracts and trades, at least to some extent.

Third, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. always has some tricks up his sleeve. Just how he plans on utilizing them this offseason remains to be seen, and whether or not they make sense will depend just on how he restructures his philosophy of signing and acquiring players, if at all.

In the following slides, five realistic moves independent of one another will be presented. Again, this slideshow does not and will not suggest that all five moves be made; rather, any of the five moves could come to fruition this winter and at least should be considered.

Here are five realistic moves the Phillies should consider in the coming offseason.

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“You can never have too much pitching.”

Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?

The aforementioned old adage is well-known to be a favorite of Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

It rang true come playoff time in 2009, 2010 and especially 2011, when the Phillies rotation was headed by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. Throw then-solid fifth starter Vance Worley into the mix and you’ve got a starting rotation that pitched to a 2.86 ERA in the regular season, best in the majors that year.

As Phillies fans and the baseball world have come to know, the rotation monster known colloquially as the Four Aces didn’t matter come the NLDS against the eventual champions, the St. Louis Cardinals.

With a Phillies offense that could barely hold its own despite the team having the majors’ best record at 102-60, the City of Brotherly Love saw what would be its baseball team’s most recent postseason appearance come to an untimely close.

And let’s not forget Ryan Howard tearing his Achilles tendon on the final play.

In the playoffs, the pitching was as much to blame as the offense. Although the offense provided minimal run support in those crucial games, there were a couple instances when the rotation was at fault.

Lee couldn’t hold a 4-0 lead. Oswalt blew up and blamed a squirrel. And from the Cardinals’ standpoint, the pitching was to be credited for its successes, as Chris Carpenter tossed a complete-game shutout on short rest in the decisive Game 5.

Fast-forward to present day. The Phillies are wrapping up the 2013 season, which will likely end with them placed fourth in the NL East and with their first losing record since 2002. This follows a 2012 season in which the team, coming off five consecutive NL East titles, finished the season at .500, going 81-81 and not even winning one of two Wild Card spots, let alone the division.

Even though the last two seasons have shown decline for the Phillies, the root of it comes from different aspects of the team.

In 2012, cornerstones Chase Utley and Howard missed more than half the season. The indestructible Halladay finally showed that he was human, landing on the disabled list for roughly two months due to a shoulder ailment. The offense was anemic, and it was most notable in Cliff Lee’s win-loss record, which stood at a jaw-dropping 6-9 despite his good numbers overall. 

But in 2013, the dynamic was different.

Sure, the offense wasn’t spectacular behind Utley and breakout All-Star Domonic Brown, but it held its own enough of the time. No, the problem was the unexpected: the starting rotation and bullpen. In short, the pitching.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

This was most definitely true in 2013. In the first half of the season, Opening Day starter Hamels struggled to gain control of his pitches and his head. He will have a losing record at the end of the season in spite of a fantastic second half. Lee’s record on the season is 14-8, with one of the many losses a 1-0 tough-luck defeat against Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves on September 27.

Baseball isn’t always fair. Ask Lee after 2012, and ask the 8-14 Hamels of 2013, if they think that their records reflect their performance. Lee’s 3.16 ERA and Hamels’ 3.60 ERA show just how good they were in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Shave down the latter’s ERA to after the All-Star Break and you have a 2.97 figure.

What’s more are the injuries and maladies that afflicted the Phillies throughout 2013.

Due to the continued shoulder woes of Halladay, Kyle Kendrick’s season-ending shutdown and rookie Jonathan Pettibone‘s shoulder inflammation, 10 pitchers started at least one game for the Phillies this year.

Add in the oft-injured bullpen headlined by offseason signee Mike Adams as well as suspended Antonio Bastardo, and you have a total of 25 pitchers on the season in addition to two position players pitching in relief. 

Twenty-five pitchers. That alone makes up a season’s active roster.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

No, I suppose you can’t. That’s been evidenced by the 27 players who have set foot on the mound this year in a Phillies uniform. But does pitching mean good pitching?

Since Amaro took over the reins as Phillies GM following the 2008 World Series win, he’s made a plethora of trades in an effort to boost the major league team.

In 2009, he dealt four prospects, including two pitchers, to the Cleveland Indians for Lee, a deal that paid off for the Phillies. Amaro then proceeded to deal Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three prospects—two of them pitching prospects—whilst trading away another three prospects, bona fide pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and superstar catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud, to the Toronto Blue Jays for Halladay.

In 2010, due to the void left by trading Lee, Amaro traded away 2009 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Houston Astros for Oswalt. And in the offseason, Amaro notably re-signed Lee, bringing back the pitcher the fans so loved and vindicating himself for dealing Lee in the first place.

Or so it seemed.

2011 saw the Phillies trade away four prospects, including pitching prospect Jarred Cosart, for Astros right fielder Hunter Pence. And 2012 saw pinch-hitter Jim Thome, center fielder Shane Victorino, starting pitcher Joe Blanton and Pence traded for reliever Josh Lindblom and, otherwise, prospects.

Finally, the 2012 offseason saw Amaro trade Worley and pitching prospect Trevor May to the Minnesota Twins for outfielder Ben Revere, and deal another two pitchers, including Lindblom, for Texas Rangers third baseman Michael Young.

Have you noticed a trend here?

I’ve tried to emphasize the amount of pitching dealt by Amaro to make these trades, many of which had minimal impact and others that ultimately didn’t result in any World Series runs, Lee in 2009 aside.

The list of Phillies pitchers and pitching prospects traded away in these deals is seemingly endless. Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp. Drabek. Happ. Cosart and Josh Zeid. Blanton. Worley and May. Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla. And in minor player swaps, Julio Rodriguez and Michael Schwimer.

It’s also worth mentioning the pitching names the Phillies received in return over the years. Jack Taschner. Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez. Jeremy Horst. Kyle Simon. Seth Rosin. Lindblom, Ethan Martin and Ryan O’Sullivan. Frank Gailey. Rob Rasmussen and Nefi Ogando in August of this year. And that’s it.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

Funny how much shorter the second list is compared to the first, isn’t it? Amaro has traded away 14 pitchers in major deals throughout his tenure compared to acquiring just 12. One, Lindblom, isn’t even with the Phillies anymore. And Aumont could be on his way out soon as well.

The trades have worked out well for the Phillies in some instances and not so well in others.

Players like May, Rodriguez and Bonilla have yet to make the majors. Schwimer has yet to resurface in the bigs. Happ, Drabek, Carrasco and Knapp have dealt with injury, Knapp to the point that the Indians released him. Blanton was far from great as a Los Angeles Dodger. Worley struggled upon his trade and has been stashed in the minors for most of the year.

However, Happ—aside from being hit in the head by a comebacker earlier this year—has shown mild success after being traded from Houston to Toronto. Cosart has started off his career with a bang, and Zeid has made it to the majors as well. May has struggled in the minors this year but is still in the Twins’ future plans. And Carrasco and Drabek, despite injuries, have rehabbed or are in the process of doing so.

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ acquisitions have primarily fizzled.

Taschner was awful. Aumont and Ramirez have failed to establish themselves. Horst was good for a stretch but has since struggled or been injured. Martin is still a question mark. And Simon, Rosin, O’Sullivan, Gailey, Rasmussen and Ogando have yet to make the majors. Many of them never will.

While the trades the Phillies have made have their successes and failures, it’s worth noting that their acquisitions in these deals have been far worse than the talent traded away.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

In 2013, the starting rotation suffered. When John Lannan got hurt, there was a contingency plan in Jonathan Pettibone. When Halladay got hurt, Lannan returned and Martin burst onto the scene. When Pettibone got hurt and Martin had to be moved to the bullpen, Tyler Cloyd and Zach Miner stepped up. And both of them have struggled.

The bullpen also dealt with its fair share of injuries and issues. Adams dealt with various bicep and shoulder problems. Horst and Michael Stutes were also hurt, and Chad Durbin was terrible and subsequently released. Bastardo was involved in Biogenesis and suspended for 50 games. Aumont likely lost favor within the organization after command problems and a hissy fit of sorts upon being demoted. 

The bullpen replacements were mediocre at best, save for a few like Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus and B.J. Rosenberg of late. The others, like Cesar Jimenez, Luis Garcia, J.C. Ramirez, Joe Savery, Raul Valdes, Miner and potentially Mauricio Robles, wouldn’t even be major leaguers on other teams.

My point is this: The Phillies have a ton of pitching. That’s not a bad thing.

But the quality of the pitching they have? Pathetic. Abominable. Abhorrent. Atrocious. 

What was once considered an unstoppable rotation behind the Four Aces and Blanton, then Worley, is a distant memory. Now, all that’s left are deep scars in what was once a stockpiled organization in both the majors and minors.

The Phillies will have to see players like Cosart and Happ succeed elsewhere as a result of trades later rendered obsolete and unnecessary. It’s still too early to rule out successes from Carrasco and Drabek, at least in some capacity. Zeid could be a decent bullpen option for the Astros, while May will likely make the majors and thrive in some role.

Other teams aren’t having trouble sleeping at night from their side of trades with the Phillies.

Halladay netted the Blue Jays Drabek and d’Arnaud, the latter of whom later turned into R.A. Dickey. Lee gave Seattle Justin Smoak in a later trade. Revere gave the Twins much-needed pitching depth, even if it’s still a work in progress. 

But the big problem here is the Phillies’ lack of pitching depth.

When you realize that the Phillies had to rely on a pitcher who can’t top 90 miles per hour in Cloyd and a journeyman in Miner as consistent starting pitcher options, even for a short time, you know that the team is in trouble. And if the Phillies haven’t realized it yet, they will.

Yes, you could argue that some of the Phillies’ pitchers traded elsewhere haven’t done well since their trades. But that point’s irrelevant when you realize that they were good as Phillies, and nothing suggests that they would have necessarily flopped if not traded away.

Carrasco was the team’s top prospect when traded and Knapp was a top 10 guy. Drabek was a No. 1 as well at the time of his trade. Happ had been good in a Phillies uniform, as was Worley. And Cosart and May were on the fast track to be key contributors for the Phillies, most likely now or in the near future.

Instead, the Phillies have to make some additional moves this offseason to patch up a leaky rotation and bullpen.

In brief, these guys were successful as Phillies and, in the case of prospects, likely would have been had they remained with the organization.

The thing with trades is that players and prospects are appealing but never guaranteed successes. Other teams learned that with Happ when he was an Astro and Worley with the Twins.

However, what the Phillies ignored is that they had two talented rotation arms. They would have had more with Cosart and May. But they don’t, so now the Phillies have to be even more creative to fix a broken team and farm system.

I’m not saying the Phillies shouldn’t have made the trades they did. At the time, the trades for Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Pence and Revere were justified. In the case of the first four names, the Phillies were a piece away from being serious World Series contenders, and the Phillies did make the playoffs with each of them in tow. With Revere, the Phillies needed a center fielder, and they got a young, controllable, solid option.

But shouldn’t the Phillies have considered not trading away pitching in most, if not all, of these deals without replenishing the team and farm system with equivalent talent?

It’s not the trades that hurt. It’s the fact that the Phillies have no Commissioner’s Trophies to show for them, nor any imminent minor league top prospect call-ups.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

Ruben Amaro Jr., I do not criticize you for making the trades you did. But I do hold you accountable for hypocritically sacrificing much-needed pitching depth in order to facilitate them without the end results paying necessary dividends. There have not been any more World Series titles, and there are not any reliable internal options for the rotation and bullpen.

And you are to blame for that.

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The 2012 trade deadline has come to pass. For the Philadelphia Phillies, though, it could have gone better.

At roughly noon Eastern time today, the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Shane Victorino in exchange for reliever Josh Lindblom and pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Then, about two hours later, the San Francisco Giants made a trade that nabbed Hunter Pence from the Phillies for outfielder Nate Schierholtz, catching prospect Tommy Joseph and minor league starting pitcher Seth Rosin.

It was thought that Joe Blanton could be traded today as well, but a deal with the Baltimore Orioles fell through. Blanton remains on the team for now, as he could be a trade candidate in August through the waiver trade system.

In the meantime, the Phillies have called up Domonic Brown and have activated Brian Schneider off the DL to take the roster spots of Victorino and Pence. But with the returns the Phillies received in exchange for their All-Star outfielders, did the Phillies strike gold or did they find fool’s gold instead?

Let’s take a look at the two deals:

Los Angeles Dodgers Receive Victorino, Phillies Get Lindblom and Martin in Return

The Phillies traded away their defensive star center fielder Shane Victorino for Lindblom and Martin. Victorino’s time in Philadelphia was overall spectacular, as he was named to two All-Star teams and won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-2010. He hit .277 as a Phillies with 88 home runs and posted a .776 OPS.

In Lindblom, the Phillies get a somewhat-steady reliever. He’s got a 3.02 ERA this year and 1.26 WHIP, but away from Dodger Stadium his ERA this year is 5.32 and his WHIP is 1.46. At least he’s under team control through 2017.

As for Martin, the Phillies surprisingly acquired a pitching prospect in addition to Lindblom for Victorino, so that in itself is a bonus. Martin was ranked as the 17th best prospect in the Dodgers’ system heading into 2011, and while he could project as a number two starter, relief work may be the best opportunity for him in the bigs.

Victorino was traded for what I think was a low price given his track record, but also given his apparent market of only being available for relievers, the Phillies did pretty well. They don’t have to eat any of his remaining salary and they get both a reliever under control for years to come and a prospect who could work his way through the system. Not bad.

Victorino Trade Grade: B

Now let’s take a look at the Pence deal.

San Francisco Giants Acquire Pence, Trade Joseph, Schierholtz and Rosin to Phillies

Of Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, I least expected Pence to be dealt. Despite Pence being the most expensive of the three, he is under team control through next year and even though his salary will go up once more, he’s one of the Phillies’ younger pieces and hits better than Victorino. Sure enough, it was Blanton who gets to stick around…for now.

Anyway, the Phillies saw the Pence deal headlined by catching prospect Tommy Joseph, the Giants’ second-best prospect. Joseph has tons of power and his game calling skills were considered second only to Giants catcher Buster Posey in their system. He’s also significantly improved his defense and has a very strong arm. Because of this, he’s expected to stick as a catcher. He’ll be starting in Double-A now that Phillies catching prospect Sebastian Valle has been promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

In adddition, the Phillies got Nate Schierholtz, a utility outfielder who can hit for solid average and isn’t bad defensively. Schierholtz asked to be dealt, so his inclusion in the trade is more like a favor for him and a move the Phillies needed to make for the interim now that Pence’s right field spot is vacant. He’ll be a free agent after the 2014 season.

Then there’s Rosin. Not considered a top prospect, he ranks as the Giants’ fourth-best right-handed minor league starting pitcher. At High-A San Jose this year, Rosin has pitched to a 2-1 record with a 4.31 ERA, 68 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. Although Baseball America has him listed as a starter, Rosin’s spent more time working out of the bullpen this year.

While Pence’s trade didn’t come as a surprise nor did his destination, the return that the Phillies received for him is appalling. Pence was worth more to the Phillies and has more overall value than a top prospect and two throw-ins. I get that Ruben Amaro, Jr. wanted to shed Pence’s salary, but now that he’s also chipping in some money to San Francisco, it defeats the purpose. Trading Pence is fine. But for this package? It very well may have been worth keeping him.

Pence Trade Grade: D

What do you think of the two trades? Who should have been dealt? Should Victorino and/or Pence have been retained? Leave your opinions in the comments section below.

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As the baseball world surpasses 72 hours until the trade deadline at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, July 31, more and more rumors will arise and materialize into trades. Some of the most heated rumors involve two of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ starting outfielders, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.

Given the team’s current last-place standing in the NL East by a 14.5-game margin, the Phillies are best suited to sell rather than buy this year.

In need of prospects to rebuild their thin farm system, the Phillies’ only chances of doing that are trading away their proven talent to acquire multiple prospects who could make the team younger as well as help out the club in the future.

It makes sense for the Phillies to at least consider trading away their center and right fielder. Maybe they want to trade one of them rather than both, or maybe none at all. It’s up to GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. and the rest of the Phillies front office to make that decision, and it’ll be based upon who they could get in return for each of the two former All-Stars.

In trading Victorino, any team acquiring the Flyin’ Hawaiian would get a speedy center fielder who’s a spectacular defender and an above-average hitter when he’s hot. Unfortunately for the Phillies, he hasn’t been hot this season.

Not once.

In fact, he’s hitting just .256 on the season, and the last time he hit a home run was almost two months ago, on June 8 against the Baltimore Orioles. Last night he hit a double that gave Victorino his first RBI since July 14. He simply doesn’t have it this year. At least he’s stealing bases…when he gets on base, that is.

The Phillies have dangled Victorino into the open waters and have tried to get a sense of which teams are nibbling on him and what they’d be willing to offer.

So far, according to CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury, the Phillies have received interest in Victorino, but whether the Phillies are interested in what they can get in return for him is a different story. The Phils have asked for relievers (via Stark) in return for Victorino, including Tampa Bay‘s Wade Davis, Pittsburgh‘s Brad Lincoln, Cincinnati‘s Logan Ondrusek and the Dodgers‘ Josh Lindblom, among others.

But considering that the team has been rebuffed on every offer, it makes it worth wondering whether the Phillies should even trade Victorino for that small a return.

Not that the Phillies don’t need the bullpen help, though. Their relief ERA this year is 4.59, good for fourth-worst in the majors. Besides closer Jonathan Papelbon and long reliever Kyle Kendrick, the Phillies lack a reliable veteran arm who they can turn to in the seventh or eighth innings.

Victorino could net them that veteran presence in the bullpen, and even if that’s all they can get for him, it might be a worthwhile investment. Might be.

Victorino’s ineffective offense has lowered his trade stock, and for a Phillies team who needs to rebuild their farm system more than anything, he’s not the best option to do that. Hunter Pence, on the other hand, would net the Phillies some more prospects in a trade.

Pence was acquired by the Phillies at the deadline last year for a massive prospect package consisting of right-handed starter Jarred Cosart, first baseman Jonathan Singleton, outfielder Domingo Santana and reliever Josh Zeid. All four of those pieces would have bolstered the Phillies’ farm system, with Cosart and Singleton considered top-50 prospects before the season by Baseball America.

Now that the Phillies may consider trading Pence only a year later, it makes no sense that Pence was acquired to begin with.

But that’s in the past and can’t be reversed. Sure, the Phillies have a depleted farm system that ranks in the bottom of the league rather than the top half, but hey, what are you going to do?

Pence has been hitting the ball much better than Victorino this season, hitting .267 on the year, but he was hitting as high as .288 as recently as July 8. He’s been in the midst of a slump of late, but Pence is a second-half player and should be able to bring it back up. Unlike Victorino, who’s got less than 10 home runs to his name this season, Pence has hit 17 and has 59 RBI.

Also unlike Victorino, Pence isn’t a speedster nor a valuable defensive asset. In fact, his UZR/150 this year is minus-14.2, currently the worst mark of his career, and it isn’t even close to his second-worst mark, which was minus-5.3 last year. He’s not just bad defensively. He’s a liability.

However, Pence’s biggest upside for the Phillies is the potential prospect haul he could bring in if dealt. Victorino’s an impending free agent, and since the new CBA doesn’t allot draft-pick compensation to teams that acquire mid-season rentals, his value has dropped even more immensely than his stats suggest.

But with Pence, who’s got another year under team control before free agency, that’s not an issue. That’s where the prospect return comes in.

If Pence was traded, he could easily bring in two top prospects and a mid-level prospect. He’s by far the best right fielder potentially available in a trade this summer, and his right-handedness makes him even more valuable to some specific teams like the San Francisco Giants, according to FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi, who tweeted this yesterday:

If #Phillies decide to make Hunter Pence available, #SFGiants expected to make a push. They want a RH-hitting OF bat.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 27, 2012

 

The other benefit in trading Pence for the Phillies is that they don’t have to spend as much money next year. Sounds cheap? Maybe. But hear me out.

Pence is arbitration eligible for the fourth and final time next year (as a Super Two player, he gets a fourth year of arbitration). He’s expected to make somewhere around $14-15 million next year alone, and if he’s retained, not only is his salary more a deterrent next year if they decided to trade him then, but other teams won’t like his impending free agency, as is the case with Victorino.

And of course, there are luxury tax ramifications. Pence’s estimated $15 million salary is another $15 million on the books for the Phillies if they keep him. If not, they’re $15 million further from the surpassing the $178 million luxury tax.

That also impacts them this year. The Phillies sit on, or slightly over, the luxury tax threshold. If they deal Pence, they don’t have to worry about being the first National League team to surpass the threshold in history, nor paying 17.5 percent on every dollar over $178 million in payroll. And when we’re talking millions over, than can amount to big bills to pay.

There are pros and cons to trading Victorino and Pence. Maybe both should be traded to give Domonic Brown and John Mayberry, Jr. more playing time. Maybe only one should be dealt. Maybe neither one.

I’m for trading Pence AND Victorino, but if I had to choose one, I’d trade Pence.

If you can get three or four top prospects for him who can contribute in the near (and somewhat distant) future and also bolster your farm system rankings to make future moves, why don’t you?

You save money in the process and recoup the benefits. As much as it’s disappointing to trade away a player you just acquired a year ago, maybe it’s best for Amaro to restock the farm system this time.

What do you think? Please answer the poll and share your thoughts in the comments section below.

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According to a multitude of reporters, the Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to terms with shortstop Jimmy Rollins on a three-year, $33 million contract with a vesting option for a fourth year worth the same. Rollins, the team’s longest-tenured member, seemingly waned from his previous demands of a five-year deal or a four-year contract with a fifth-year player option.

That’s great for the team, considering that Rollins doesn’t have five years left in the tank.

With Rollins back, this spells a few things. First and foremost, Freddy Galvis will not start for the Phillies anytime soon. He’ll be stuck in Triple-A Lehigh Valley for the next three or four years, yet he’ll still be only 24 years old should Rollins’ new contract stand for four years and call for Galvis to start following its conclusion.

Then again, the Phillies could also use Galvis as a trade chip in any sort of deal should one be necessary next July or even sometime in the next few years. His defense is superb and his offense is gradually improving, and should it climb even higher next season, he’ll be a hot commodity.

Whether Dontrelle Willis’ signing with the team was a courtship to bring Rollins back to the City of Brotherly Love is a question for another time, but it sure helps nevertheless. However, the biggest question remaining in the minds of Phillies fans is this: will the team extend Cole Hamels next?

Until Vance Worley worked himself into the Phillies rotation, Hamels was the team’s last homegrown player in the starting rotation as well as the rotation’s youngest member, which consisted of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Hamels, and Joe Blanton on Opening Day of last season.

All of those pitchers were acquired via trades or free agent signings except Hamels, and all were at least 30 years old except Hamels.

Now that Hamels is one of the premier starting southpaws in the game, it begs the question: what will it take for the team to keep him beyond next season?

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. stated in an interview with NBC HardBallTalk’s Craig Calcaterra at last week’s Winter Meetings that the team would like to keep Hamels a lifelong Phillie, but that re-signing Rollins was his priority. Now that that’s come to pass, how much will Hamels extension talks heat up?

Hamels’ career numbers have been compared to those of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ace Jered Weaver, who signed a five-year, $85 million extension with his team late last season. But with Hamels being a lefty, his value automatically increases. and the fact that he’s an ace drives it up even further.

It’s been said that Hamels should command an extension comparable to Weaver’s, but with Hamels being one of the best starters in the 2013 free agent class alongside Matt Cain and Zack Greinke, he could command even more, possibly becoming a $20 million-a-year player.

There’s little doubt that Hamels will attain at least five years from the Phillies in an extension, but the price he’ll come at if extended is vague. Will he take a hometown discount and sign for an extension around the price of Weaver’s, or will he demand a contract worth an amount similar to one he’d make in free agency?

If the Phillies sign Hamels to an extension with an average annual value worth over $20 million, they would be the first team in major league history to have three starting pitchers on their roster making over $20 million a season. Will they offer that kind of contract to their organizational gem, or will they let the season play out first?

If I were Ruben Amaro, Jr., I’d lock him up now. He’s vastly improved since his 2009 fall and will continue to do so should he stay on his current track. If he does even better next year, imagine the money he’ll command in free agency next year. If the team wants to remain young and competitive beyond next year, they need to lock Hollywood Hamels up before it’s too late.

Here’s hoping Amaro knows what he’s doing.

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Last night, the Philadelphia Phillies made a big yet somewhat expected splash when they received All-Star right fielder Hunter Pence and $1 million from the Houston Astros in exchange for four minor-league players, including their top two prospects—starting pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman/outfielder Jonathan Singleton.

Despite the ridiculous comment made by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. earlier this season that the Phillies “would not make a major move this year” at the trade deadline, Amaro has gotten the job done again for the Phillies.

This is the third major move he’s made at the trade deadline in as many years as the Phillies general manager—two years ago, he traded four prospects to the Cleveland Indians for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco, and last year he traded pitcher J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Astros for Roy Oswalt. This year, he got the Phillies the right-handed bat they needed since Jayson Werth signed his mega-deal with the Washington Nationals. And us Phillies fans are happy about that.

However, just because Amaro has made this big trade with Houston doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s done for the year. While most reports indicate that he’s done dealing for the year—he’s even stated that he’s “very comfortable with the ballclub“—but as we’ve come to know with Ruben Amaro (as mentioned above), most things he says should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Phillies are now the team to beat in the National League. With a major league-best 66-39 record, not only are they the team to beat in the NL, but they very well could be in all of baseball.

Sure, the San Francisco Giants just got New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran in a trade, who was arguably the best all-around bat on the trade market this year, but he’s only with the team for the remainder of the season. And with the Phillies’ acquisition of Pence, he’s not only with the team this year, but also the next and the year after that.

In short, the Phillies have basically one-upped the Giants.

But does that mean the Phillies will stop here?

Earlier in the season, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel asked for both a right-handed bat and a relief pitcher. While Ruben Amaro has granted one of those two wishes (and the more important one as well), could he potentially look to get a deal done for a bullpen arm?

In the past when Ruben Amaro has made his trade deadline splashes, he has stood pat for the last few days following his deals. But could this year be a change to his status quo?

Prior to the completion of the Pence trade, Amaro had released a list of his top three priority players to acquire at the deadline this year. That list, from top to least priority, was Pence, White Sox right fielder Carlos Quentin and Padres setup man Mike Adams. Now that the Phillies have Pence, Quentin isn’t needed anymore, so Adams technically becomes the Phillies’ top priority should they continue to pursue other players. But will Adams be theirs for the taking?

As we’ve already covered, the Phillies have traded their top two prospects, Cosart and Singleton. Due to their departures, the Phillies’ new top prospect is starting pitcher Brody Colvin. If the Phillies, or any team for that matter, wants Adams, then they would most likely have to part with at least one top prospect. Should the Phillies pursue Adams, could Colvin be that prospect?

Even if the Phillies decide not to go the Adams route, they could trade for a smaller-market reliever like Chad Qualls of the Padres or Jon Rauch of the Blue Jays. It could be very interesting to see which reliever the Phillies get if they choose to go hunting for one.

And while the Phillies’ other primary target is a bullpen arm, they are also supposedly looking for a power bat off the bench. They inquired about Jason Giambi of the Rockies prior to his injury and they even asked the Minnesota Twins about the availability of their former first baseman Jim Thome, who is just four home runs away from reaching the 600 home run milestone for his career. Wouldn’t it be something if he did it in a Phillies uniform?

Yes, the Phillies have done something special in acquiring Hunter Pence. They’ve got the right-handed bat they have coveted and they’ll have it for two and a half years. But there’s still one lingering question: with just over 24 hours before the trade deadline (as of 1:35 p.m. EDT), will the Phillies make another move?

Only time will tell.

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Earlier today, Minnesota Twins utilityman and long-time member Michael Cuddyer stated in an interview that he would be willing to waive his limited no-trade clause to go to another team, so as long as it “helps the organization (referring to the Twins).”

Cuddyer has been on the Twins his whole career, having been drafted by them with the ninth overall pick in the 1997 MLB draft. His professional career has spanned 10 seasons (seven in which he played over 100 games, including this one if all goes well). In that time, Cuddyer has posted a .271 average, hit 131 home runs and hit 537 RBI. His OPS is a decent .793.

While Mauer is now the face of the Twins, one cannot deny that Cuddyer comes in at a close second. He’s been with the team for 10 years, and he’s been very faithful and has loved his time there.

What shows this more is that he’s willing to take one for the team. He said in the interview (and I quote): “I care so much about this organization…I do…I care so deeply about this team, that if it helps the organization…” meaning that he’ll take a trade if it benefits the Twins. That says a lot about the guy, and I highly respect him for his loyalty to the Twins, especially in a time where they’re struggling within the division (although they’re climbing back now).

According to the MLBTradeRumors.com link (the first one), the Twins would understandably have to eat a significant portion of his $10.5 million salary this season in order to appeal him to other clubs. Cuddyer, thanks to his current contract, has a limited no-trade clause, and when I say limited, I mean limited. His clause counts for three teams that, if a deal arises with them, he must approve. Cuddyer said he can’t even remember all three of them, although he believes that the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays are two of those three teams.

This means that Cuddyer can be traded to all other 26 teams in the majors.

Well, as I always say, why don’t the Phillies jump into the mix?

Cuddyer is 32 years old and is in the final year of his contract. While he would love to remain a member of the Twins, he’s willing to go to another team.

As I’ve also previously stated, the Twins would have to eat a significant portion of Cuddyer’s contract in order for most teams to take him.

If the Phillies traded someone…oh, I don’t know, Joe Blanton…to Minnesota, such monetary issues would not apply.

Here’s how it goes down: Blanton is due $17 million through 2012. However, this season, the Twins have the fifth-worst team ERA at 4.22. They’re also dead last in strikeouts with 383 and in innings pitched with 592.1 and are tied for fourth-worst batting average allowed, that standing at .263. Lastly, their K/9 and K/BB ratios are both second-to-last in the majors, those standing at 5.82 and 1.82, respectively.

In short, the Twins’ pitching staff is terrible.

And with constant trade rumors of Francisco Liriano being dealt at the deadline this year, the Twins might need another starting pitcher or two.

In this case, Joe Blanton might be their guy.

A Blanton-for-Cuddyer deal would ease up the Phillies’ salary issues and not only allow for a free-agent signing, but also for more room to extend lefty ace Cole Hamels.

But that’s not even the best part: the Phillies, who have been hunting for a right-handed bat this year, would get a great return. Cuddyer’s batting .282 this year with 10 home runs and 27 RBI. Even better is that he’s versatile: he’s played all infield positions except shortstop and both corner outfield positions this season alone. Imagine how he could impact the Phillies.

Another great stat is that Cuddyer has batted .291 against lefties this year. That could appeal to the Phillies as well, who, as a whole, have struggled to hit against southpaws.

The only problem with Blanton in such a scenario is that he’s currently on the DL and most likely won’t be back until July, which might be too long a wait for the Twins. But hey, who knows, Ruben is always able to at least bring such a deal into discussion.

While this is just trade speculation, I think a Blanton and prospect for Cuddyer deal could be one that neither side would regret in the long run.

What do you think?

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In Friday night’s series opener against the Florida Marlins, Roy Oswalt pitched four innings of no-hit baseball and looked magnificent. After allowing a solo home run to Logan Morrison to lead off the fifth inning, he still pitched well, allowing only one more run through six innings of work.

However, at the start of the seventh inning, something was wrong.

Roy Oswalt was warming up when he called over trainer Marc Andersen and manager Charlie Manuel to tell them that something was wrong. After some brief discussion, Oswalt was taken out of the game and reliever J.C. Romero was called from the bullpen to take over.

From here, the game went downhill. Romero only pitched to one batter, Logan Morrison, and allowed a single before Danys Baez took over for him, and then the nightmare began.

To start, Baez walked Gaby Sanchez, which sent him to first and Morrison to second. Next, he allowed a single to John Buck, which loaded the bases. Although Daniel Murphy popped up in the next at-bat, a pinch hitter came up to the plate and gave the Marlins the lead.

That pinch hitter was none other than Greg Dobbs, one of the Phillies’ worst clutch hitters in recent memory. After the Phillies chose not to resign him this past offseason, the Marlins swooped in and signed him to a minor league contract.

The same Greg Dobbs, who more often than not failed to deliver when the Phillies needed him most, actually hit a two-run single to score Morrison and Sanchez.

The same Greg Dobbs gave the Marlins a 4-3 lead over the Phillies in the seventh inning.

The same Greg Dobbs won the game for the Marlins after neither team scored following his two-RBI single off Baez, who was given the loss.

There are two points to make here: one, that Greg Dobbs actually bothered to do something good for his team after he left the Phillies; and two, that Oswalt most likely would have won the game had he not left following his injury.

Oswalt’s injury was officially diagnosed as a lower back strain and he is currently day-to-day, but he hopes to make his next start. However, Oswalt himself said that it’s more a middle back injury and that he could have pitched the seventh, though he felt it was best to leave before he messed up the game himself. Ironically, it was his fill-ins who did just that.

In the past, Oswalt has spent time on the DL for lower back strains. In 2006 and 2008, Oswalt spent time on the DL due to hip and back problems, and he missed two starts in 2009 because of a lower back strain, which resulted in him being placed on the DL on September 16 of that year, causing him to miss the rest of the season.

Oswalt also said in the same interview mentioned above that he had suffered back spasms through the fifth and sixth innings and his back tightened up after he bunted a ball and ran to first in the bottom of the sixth, something he hadn’t experienced before.

This calls for an obvious question: should Phillies fans be worried about their “ace of clubs“?

Since he has been on the DL many times due to back issues, could this be an addition to an already-long list of DL stints for Oswalt?

Personally, I don’t think there is much to worry about. Since Oswalt has spent time on the DL for these back issues, I would like to think that he would know the severity of a back issue. Then again, there’s always a chance the issue could be more than meets the eye, especially since, as previously stated, Oswalt has not had back spasms nor a “middle back strain” as he claims.

However, Oswalt does expect to move past this quickly and make his next start Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Although there is a chance that this could be a long-term issue, I believe it is slim and that this is a more precautionary move than anything else. Then again, I could be wrong.

I believe, Phillies fans, that this is minor and will quickly pass. Oswalt will start on Wednesday and that is that.

Phillies fans, do not be alarmed.

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