Kuzul

You can never have too much pitching. Pitching wins championships. Momentum is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher. General managers, broadcasters and baseball columnists tell us as much each and every year, and each and every year these beliefs are reinforced when the biggest Free Agent starter on the market is signed to a massive contract that takes him into his late 30s.

No player on the field can have more impact on a game than a dominant starting pitcher. It’s no surprise then that over the past 35 years, pitchers have consistently ranked as some of the most highly paid players in the game.

This offseason, former Ranger Cliff Lee, perhaps the second best pitcher in the game, is a free agent. The Rangers want Lee back and are willing to pay. The Yankees, a team Lee helped knock out of the playoffs, also want his services and a mystery team has supposedly stepped up with a seven-year offer for $20-$25 million a year.

We all know about Lee. He’s undeniably one of the best free agent pitchers in the history of baseball, but his situation is far from unique. Let’s take a trip back in time, starting in 1975, to look at a time-line of the most coveted free agent pitchers ever.

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For the first time in his career, Derek Jeter is a free agent.

Jeter’s ten year 189 million dollar contract is up, and while just weeks ago it seemed impossible that Jeter would sign anywhere else, negotiations between Jeter and the Yankees have turned ugly.

Jeter wants five or six years, and 120+ million dollars. He wants to be paid like Alex Rodriguez, and a Yankees into his early 40s. The Yankees have offered him three years, 45 million dollars. An overpayment for a 36 year old declining shortstop, but not what the captain is looking for.

Let’s face it. Jeter is probably going to sign for a little over the 3/45 the Yankees offered him. He can’t get more elsewhere, and the Yankees will give him a bit of a bump so that he can save face.

But what if talks really break down? What if Jeter ends up in Los Angeles, or Boston? The Yankees will have to find a replacement. Here are ten options, ranging from high unlikely to extremely obvious.

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The Seattle Mariners did not have a picture perfect 2010 season. After a surprise 85-77 campaign in 2009, the Mariners lost 101 games last season, matching their 2008 low.

Ace starter Cliff Lee – their main acquisition a year ago – was traded to a division rival, and the Mariners finished the year with the worst record in the American League for the second time in three years.

As bad as 2010 was, their is hope in Seattle. The Mariners locked up Felix Hernandez early in the season, and their 24 year old top starter won his first Cy Young award with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts.

At the same time, the Mariners minor league system had a fine season. The Cliff Lee trade netted them three prospects, and the Mariners top minor league arm had a breakout season.

What Mariners prospects might make an impact with the 2011 club? Here’s ten.

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In a move that surprised no one, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay unanimously won his second career Cy Young award—his first in the National League—beating out Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright for the most prestigious prize in pitching.

Halladay had a Cinderella first season in Philadelphia, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts, all among the best in the league. Halladay threw his first career perfect game on May 29th, and the second All-Time playoff no-hitter in the NLDS against San Diego.

The Phillies ace lead the league in complete games for the sixth time in his last eight seasons, approaching career bests in both wins and ERA, though falling short of his 22 win 2003 season.

That 2003 season was Halladay’s first Cy Young campaign. Halladay set a career low in ERA in 2005, when he was 28 years old.

Other contenders for the award included Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who finished second in 2009, Florida ace Josh Johnson, and Ubaldo Jimenez, who appeared the overwhelming favorite for much of the first half of the season.

Jimenez faded down the stretch and Halladay finished strong, leading the league in wins, K/BB rate, innings, complete games, shutouts, and walk rate, finishing second in WHIP and strikeouts, and third in ERA.

This second Cy Young award puts Halladay in a select group of pitchers. Only two pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards have been eligible for the Hall of Fame and failed to gain entry, and with three 20 win seasons, a perfect game, and a playoff no-hitter, Halladay looks like a near lock.

At 33 years old, Halladay is among the league’s best pitchers, and seems to have a lot left in the tank. This past year was arguably Hallday’s best, and over the past four years he has finished third, fifth, second, and fifth in Cy Young voting. Only time will tell if he can repeat this incredible season, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

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Milwaukee Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo isn’t a household name—not yet anyway.

The young righty and his electric stuff are no stranger to most baseball fans and fantasy baseball owners, and at 25 years old, Gallardo will enter 2011 with over 500 innings under his belt and a career ERA of 3.67.

Given his youth and talent, improvement would seem likely. Still, baseball fans can’t help but feel like they are still waiting for Gallardo to truly breakout.

After bursting onto the scene in 2007, along with fellow rookie Tim Lincecum, Gallardo’s progress was stalled by an injury that wiped out his 2008 season. He came back strong in 2009 with a 204 strikeouts and a 3.73 ERA, and 2010 looked for a while like the breakout year we’ve been waiting for.

Yet Gallardo finished the year with 185 innings and a 3.87 ERA; if anything, it was a step back from his 2007 and 2009 seasons. Gallardo averaged fewer than six innings a start, and despite starting the season with a 2.58 ERA in the first half, struggled down the stretch with an ERA of 5.77.

What should we make of Gallardo? Why has he yet to take the “next step” after four seasons in Major League Baseball?

The answer, as far as I can tell, is that he has. The 2010 season was an improvement over 2009. A bit of bad luck obscured this step forward, but Gallardo’s progress in his age was very real and bodes well for his future success.

The most significant improvement Gallardo made last season was in his ability to limit walks. While his WHIP rose from 1.31 to 1.37, his walk rate declined from 4.56 to 3.65. So Gallardo was throwing more strikes and trading walks for hits, right? Not exactly.

Gallardo actually threw fewer pitches in the strike zone in 2010 than he did in 2009. He struck out as many batters and his walk rate declined. What accounts for this? How can a pitcher who throws fewer strikes also walk fewer batters? This could be dumb luck, but more than likely, this is simply Gallardo learning how better to command the strike zone.

In 2009, he threw a first pitch strike 52.6 percent of the time, which is well bellow league average. This past season that number jumped to 61.8 percent of the time, or three points above the league average.

What this means is that Gallardo was getting ahead in counts more often. While he still threw plenty of pitches outside the strike zone, he distributed these pitches more strategically and limited his walks. Furthermore, batters were swinging at these pitches more often than in previous years.

So if Gallardo was throwing more pitches outside the strike zone, why did he give up more hits? T

o put it simply, he got unlucky. While his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate indicate his stuff is about as good as it’s been in the past, batters made more contact on pitches outside the zone. This led to a few more hits, a few less strikeouts and walks.

The net effect obviously hurt Gallardo. And beyond that, on balls in play, batters hit .340, about 40 points above the league average in 2010. Adjust this number to the league average level of .302, and Gallardo’s 2010 WHIP would have been 11 points lower. Because of this high batting average on balls in play, Gallardo stranded only about 70 percent of the runners he allowed on base, a little low for any pitchers, and especially low for a guy who strikes out 10 per nine innings.

If we look at his 2010 season on the whole, it’s clear that Gallardo improved his command of the strike zone, throwing a significantly higher number of first pitch strikes and walking fewer batters. While the results don’t quite indicate the leap forward that his underlying numbers do, this is easily explained by a poor BABIP—something that should correct itself going forward.

But what about his second half slip up? Why did his ERA rise so significantly in the back of 2010?

Again, this is an issue of luck. Gallardo’s ERA and FIP by month:

While Gallardo’s FIP—a better measure of true pitching ability that filters out luck and defensive noise—fluctuated by only about a run over the course of the season, Gallardo’s ERA skyrocket for a couple of months, ruining his season numbers and leading many to overlook a true breakout year.

Why? Because of an unlucky BABIP. In July, a month in which he posted a 2.64 FIP and 4.78 ERA in three starts, his BABIP was .477. In August, a month in which he posted a 3.52 FIP and 7.75 ERA in six starts, his BABIP was .400.

At 25 and with his stuff, no one is writing off a potential breakout. What people don’t realize is that the first big step has already been taken. Gallardo’s 3.02 FIP last season ranked fifth in the National League, just 0.01 points above that of Roy Halladay, the likely Cy Young winner. Don’t be surprised if, come 2011, Gallardo is contending for that very same award.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This isn’t how Ron Washington wanted his season to end. An AL West title, the franchise’s first playoff series victory, and a trip to the World Series will not soon by forgotten by a fan base long starved for baseball success. But at the end of a season filled with so much off-the-field commotion, the Giants went home champions for the first time in almost 60 years, and the Rangers went home defeated.

World Series defeat or not, Washington’s 2010 season might not end all bad. As the Major League awards season kicks off, the Rangers manager looks like the favorite to take home the AL Manager of the Year award, over some stiff competition. Some of the game’s most respected managers—Joe Girardi, Ron Gardenhire, and Joe Maddon—managed their teams into the playoffs, generally a prerequisite for MOTY consideration.

Teams lead by Girardi, Maddon, and Gardenhire all finished the season with better records than Texas, and while the Rangers defeated the Rays and Yankees on their way to the AL Pennant, voters sent in their ballots before the post-season began. So what makes Washington’s season so special? Why will he come out on top? One word: adversity.

Awards voters love adversity, and the 2010 Texas Rangers had plenty of it. This really begins back over a year ago though, so let’s take a step back and look at their less-successful 2009 campaign. For the first time in five years, the Texas Rangers were playoff contenders, entering the seasons home stretch with playoff aspirations.

Off the field, though, 2009 was not the Rangers’ year. Earlier that season, Tom Hicks, the Rangers owner who a decade earlier made Alex Rodriguez baseballs highest paid player, had defaulted on a $500 million loan. The team was for sale, and the prospects for adding payroll in the near future seemed remote.

Possibly the Rangers two best players, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler, had less than optimal seasons, as Hamilton battled through injuries and Kinsler saw his batting average plummet. To make matters worse, pictures surfaced in August showing that Hamilton had relapsed earlier that year. The Rangers made a push towards the end of the season, but fell well short, missing the playoffs yet again.

Entering 2010, hopes were somewhat high that the Rangers could build off a solid 2009 and final capture the AL West. But with the Angels, as always, looking strong, Seattle building through defense, and even the A’s looking competitive, the division was wide open. The ownership situation had yet to be resolved, and to make matters worse, an incident surfaced during spring training that almost cost Ron Washington his job.

On March 17, SI.com reported that Washington had tested positive for cocaine during the 2009 season. The incident led many to call for Washington’s resignation, and while the Rangers manager kept his job, it wasn’t the greatest way to start the year.

The ownership situation seemed to be resolving itself, but a January deal between Hicks and Nolan Ryan’s ownership group fell through, and as the season started, the Rangers were officially being operated by Major League Baseball.

But right out of the gates, the Rangers looked like the team to beat in the AL West. With Nelson Cruz tearing the cover off the ball in April, and the duo of Hamilton and Guerrero picking things up in the first half, the Rangers got out to an early lead. While a midseason deal for Cliff Lee didn’t pay off immediately, the Rangers finished the season in first and the rest is history.

What role Washington played in this near-Cinderella season is up for debate. But with a roster far less talented than that of New York, Tampa Bay, or arguably even Minnesota, and with a team not that much better on paper than the Angels, or some though, coming into the season, the Mariners, the Rangers won the division and shot through the American League playoffs.

Girardi, Maddon, and Gardenhire did admirable jobs throughout the season, and even were we to blame their teams playoff failures on them, it not all that relevant – the votes were cast before the postseason began.

But Washington was able to keep his team together through an avalanche of off-the-field headlines and get the most out of his roster. For that, he deserves the Manager of the Year award. I believe the voters will agree.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The momentum is building.

Last Friday, the Texas Rangers defeated the Yankees, ending New York’s title defense, and sending Brian Cashman’s front office into overdrive.

Cliff Lee, the Rangers ace, and the Yankees ace for a few hours on July 9th, will start game one of the World Series. But what uniform will he be wearing next season?

The battle for Cliff Lee is shaping up to be just as interesting, and perhaps more important than this years ALCS. And the teams in it? Texas and New York.

Who gets Cliff Lee? My moneys on New York. World Series ring or not.

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The Yankees may have stolen a game in Texas, but heading into Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS, they can’t be happy about their situation.

With Cliff Lee on the mound, the Yankees look likely to fall back a game in the series, and with Lee going in Game 7, New York would certainly would like to rap this up early. Should Lee win tonight, Games 4-6 become almost must wins.

But Yankees fans shouldn’t write off Game 3 just yet.

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Barry Zito. Vernon Wells. Mike Hampton.

It doesn’t matter how much money is at stake, Major League GM’s make a lot of mistakes. Few names prove as much better than the three players listed above.

Some bad moves are avoidable. Some are not. But every offseason, every trade deadline, some general manager is going to make a move he thinks will help his team, only to see it backfire and eventually cost him his job.

2010 has certainly not been immune to bad deals. Adrian Beltre, Marlon Byrd, and Vladdy may have been terrific pickups for their current teams, but free agency is a zero-sum game. Somebody always loses.

Hindsight is 20/20, and with that in mind, let’s rank the 20 worst deals of the last year, from the 2009-10 offseason to the 2010 trading deadline.

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