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One week after MLB‘s first pitch, the 2016 season received a major shake-up to the fantasy landscape.

Most teams aren’t in a hurry to promote prospects, instead delaying their arbitration clocks while giving veterans the first stabs at sticking in a lineup. Over the weekend, however, two injuries opened a window for a pair of young guns.

Before their call-ups, Week 2’s top waiver-wire recommendations featured role players rather than game-changers. A few forgettable guys demonstrated their values with hot starts, and others earned a boost due to clarified roles.

Those players can help, but even jaded fantasy managers perk up when a hot-shot prospect arrives to the big leagues. While astute gamers pounced on Sunday, some late adopters may still need a friendly reminder to act before the opportunity dissipates.

After surviving one week, let’s take a look at several free agents available in more than half of Yahoo Sports leagues as of Sunday night.

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Let the overreactions begin.

Fantasy baseball fiends who spent months waiting for Opening Day will let the excitement of MLB‘s return get the best of them. After a grueling process of projecting 2016 stats, they now have a week’s worth of numbers to scrutinize.

Unfortunately, that’s not a significant sample size. Using a few games as evidence of fundamental change could cause costly decisions from eager gamers. Remember when Freddy Galvis left last April batting .355? Or the time Nick Martinez allowed one run over his first four starts? 

Patient player will relax and stay the course; if anything, they will exploit their zealous peers by selling high. Others will prefer to stand pat altogether to avoid making early mistakes. 

Then again, some changes stick. It’s hard not to get giddy about your breakout pick dominating or a hyped prospect debuting in grand fashion. Maybe it’s just one week, but it could be the start of something real.

As 2016’s opening week winds down, let’s take a deep breath and analyze some of the hottest starts to determine if they’re flukes or the new norm.

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Welcome to the waiver-wire jungle, where fantasy baseball championships are won and lost. 

Many drafters fall in love with their original rosters, which is a dangerous mindset that could blind them from busts absorbing precious space while superior alternatives lie around free agency. Matt Duffy, Logan Forsythe, David Peralta, Kevin Pillar, Gerardo Parra, Billy Burns, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Carlos Martinez, Jeurys Familia and A.J. Ramos all ascended from undrafted beginnings to starting stalwarts last year.

The true fun begins once the 2016 season commences in full force. Breakout stars will materialize, but most of them are hiding deep down free agency’s abyss. If everyone anticipated big things, they would already frequent someone’s roster.

To avoid any redundancies, this list doesn’t feature any of the 10 guys highlighted on Friday. Eliminating more exciting guys like Vince Velasquez, Juan Nicasio and Tyler White, Week 1’s waiver-wire column instead focuses on players who slipped between the cracks.

With a couple of possible exceptions, the following players aren’t breakout candidates as much as solid producers deserving a chance in deeper mixed leagues. When roles change and surprise stars manifest, the names will get more exciting in ensuing weeks.

Consider these players, owned in under 50 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues, the misfit toys other managers don’t want. Some should prove worth more than everyone thinks.

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The draft is over. Weeks, perhaps months of copious fantasy baseball research shines through when examining the results. Yet the road to claiming a championship has only begun.

Some managers, confident of their drafted squads, will simply kick back and wait for Opening Day. That’s probably better than the person who has overreacted to every spring training tidbit and already made 20 moves.

There’s a happy medium in between those two extremes. Trust your drafting decisions, but don’t doze off and miss major news. Those who drafted early especially must take note of players who have since bolstered their stock by earning playing time or dominating March’s exhibition bouts.

Before the MLB season begins on Sunday, many owners will clear a roster spot or two once teams finally place injured players on the disabled list. Gamers stashing Michael Brantley, Jung Ho Kang, Yu Darvish or Lance McCullers get to shop around free agency. 

If filling out a final bench spot, why not take an upside flier? None of these players are perfect, which is why they remain available in over 50 percent of Yahoo Sports leagues. With a strong start to 2016, that will quickly change, so pounce now before the window closes.

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Early in MLB‘s offseason, the rumor mill will run wild with possibilities. Some will foreshadow future maneuvers, but others will remain in “What if?” purgatory.

A general manager isn’t doing his due diligence by hanging up on an inquiry. Even an untouchable superstar has his price if the other side is willing to overpay. Many speculated studs on the hot stove will stay put, but it’s usually worth a conversation.

This is also the time to play armchair GM and assemble possible trades. One such move, given life last week, was already discarded. Yet that doesn’t mean both players will stay put.

Let’s examine the league’s latest chatter as offseason activity intensifies.

Heavy Interest in Dee Gordon

When the Los Angeles Dodgers dealt Dee Gordon to the Miami Marlins last winter, it looked like they sold high on a career year. Not quite. The second baseman hit .333 with 58 steals and 88 runs scored for Miami, giving the downtrodden franchise a rare win.

After a disappointing 71-91 season for Miami, other organizations are calling in hopes of the frugal franchise opening the gates on another fire sale. According to the Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo, eager suitors are knocking on the door:  

The Marlins have a few players that other teams are interested in, including center fielder Marcell Ozuna, who could be dealt for starting pitching. But Gordon has received a ton of interest, being a second baseman who can hit as well as run. The Marlins have listened, but it would have to be a huge deal in which front-line, controllable pitching would come in return. Seems unlikely.

While Gordon will draw a raise in arbitration, he remains under team control. Back in August, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported the team’s intentions of negotiating an extension this offseason. That doesn’t sound like a team worried about a letdown, even if there’s reason for concern. 

Gordon won the National League batting title with help from a .383 batting average on balls in play, MLB’s third-highest clip among qualified hitters. Some regression to the mean will bring the number down to a more reasonable rate, which will further expose his 3.8 walk percentage.

Then again, the same was said heading into 2015. Although the old saying claims nobody can steal first base, he snatches up infield hits few other speedsters can beat out. If he falls to his .293 career average, he’s still an above-average option.

Everybody has his price, so Miami should listen to offers in case anyone overpays for his .333 average. Given his lack of plate discipline and power, the club probably won’t receive a young, high-caliber ace in return.

Yankees Want Starting Pitching for Brett Gardner

Rumors spread faster in the city that never sleeps, so Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News opened up a giant can of worms by discussing the New York Yankees flipping outfielder Brett Gardner to the Chicago Cubs for middle infielder Starlin Castro:

The initial report spurred an avalanche of speculation and opinions, but this rumor didn’t live long. Heyman shot down the pairing:

Feinsand updated his story to sing a different tune, joining Heyman in stating the Yankees’ interest in acquiring a starting pitcher rather than a second baseman.

“A source said if the Yankees are to trade Gardner, it would likely be for a starting pitcher,” Feinsand wrote. “The Indians have reportedly shown interest in Gardner as well, setting up a possible deal to send a pitcher—Carlos Carrasco, perhaps—to the Bronx.”

An overlooked mainstay in New York’s lineup, Gardner hit .259/.343/.399 with 16 homers, 20 steals and a 2.6 fWAR. While the 32-year-old is no longer a major menace on the bases or a premier defender, his stellar batting eye and growing power preserve his status as an outfield fixture.

Any suitors, however, should fear the lefty’s newly gained muscle waning outside of Yankee Stadium, whose short right-field fence is perfectly tailored for his line-drive swing. Expecting Carrasco, a 28-year-old hurler under team control, is far too ambitious after his 216-strikeout season.

While Castro, 25, is far younger than Gardner, he has failed to reach his potential with fluctuating results. Last season, he recorded a .296 on-base percentage, causing the Cubs to bench him during the season. A right-handed hitter with a 54.1 ground-ball percentage can’t properly utilize Yankee Stadium, so the Yankees are wise to leave this exchange as nothing more than talk-radio fodder.

Astros Pursuing Top Closers

The Houston Astros cleaned up their organization sooner than expected, snapping a nine-season playoff drought and pushing the Kansas City Royals to the limit in the American League Division Series.

In six playoff games, Houston’s bullpen surrendered 14 runs through 17.1 innings. It also must replace or re-sign Tony Sipp, who registered a 1.99 ERA last season. As a result, the Astros are eyeing top late-inning arms in hopes of making a major splash, per ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

According to Cafardo, Andrew Miller tops their wish list, and Pittsburgh Pirates closer Mark Melancon is also on their radar. In his first season of a four-year deal with the Yankees, Miller notched a 2.04 ERA and 100 strikeouts through 61.2 innings. 

New York has another shutdown reliever in Dellin Betances, but he was on the roster when they signed Miller last winter. Per Feinsand, the Yankees would move the 30-year-old lefty, but they’re not desperate to do so:

After years of rebuilding, Houston showed a willingness to leverage its deep farm system on the trade market last summer. To sustain an unexpected run, it traded prospects to land Carlos Gomez, Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers before the trade deadline. Now it wants a bullpen ace, who would probably supplant veteran Luke Gregerson as the ninth-inning man.

All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

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A week removed from baseball, MLB‘s offseason rumor mill has quickly reached full throttle with trade and free-agent chatter.

Friday foreboded a messy free-agency period when a record 20 players received qualifying offers, meaning teams must cough up a first-round draft pick to sign someone who declines the one-year, $15.8 million deal. One of those guys already has a potential suitor after his red-hot October.

Trades don’t usually develop until winter meetings, but the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays wasted little time reaching a six-player deal. Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar were sent to Tampa, while Nathan Karns, Boog Powell and C.J. Riefenhauser went to Seattle. The quick transaction could open the floodgates to more swift maneuvering.

Let’s circle the league for early offseason rumblings on the trade and free-agent fronts.

Nationals Plan to Keep Papelbon, Storen

No team fell shorter of expectations than the Washington Nationals. The preseason favorites to win it all and a virtual lock to capture the National League East, they instead missed the playoffs altogether.

A disastrous season turned even uglier when midseason acquisition Jonathan Papelbon attacked Bryce Harper—who did his part with a season deserving of MVP honors—for not running out a lazy pop fly.  

The sensible thing to do is cut ties with the guy choking teammates, but Papelbon’s younger peer instead helped calm the waters. According to the Washington Post‘s Thomas Boswell, Harper “reached out to Jonathan Papelbon to make sure their relationship as teammates is functional next season.” Not only is the hostile closer staying put, but sources within the organization told Boswell that the team also intends on keeping Drew Storen.

“In a related note, Nats people also say the team’s current plan is to have both Papelbon and Drew Storen in the back end of their bullpen again next year, with the expectation that they will work out a way to ‘play nice together,'” Boswell wrote.

Storen dazzled as Washington’s ninth-inning man, posting a 1.64 ERA into Aug. 1. Whether a coincidence or frustration over his switch to a setup role behind Papelbon, he then surrendered 16 runs—14 earned—over the final two months. He ended his season by punching a locker and breaking his thumb. 

The Philadelphia Phillies struggled to find a taker on the 34-year-old Papelbon due to a 2016 vesting option. Washington bit and guaranteed an $11 million option, as noted by Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which Papelbon agreed to reduce from $13 million. 

If moving an expensive reliever isn’t hard enough, moving an expensive reliever and temperamental bully who chokes superstar teammates should prove impossible. Pitching in the eighth inning is no different than pitching in the ninth inning, so the Nationals will hope Storen reverts into a lights-out setup man.

Veterans on the Trade Block

Teams hoping Washington would part with a high-end reliever can pursue another veteran reportedly available, while any team needing a left-handed bat also has a feasible target, as ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted:

One of baseball’s most reliable late-inning arms, Joaquin Benoit posted a 2.34 ERA and 0.90 WHIP for the San Diego Padres in 2015. Over the past three seasons, he has notched a 1.86 ERA and 200 strikeouts through 186.2 innings

The Padres recently exercised the 38-year-old’s $7.5-million option for 2016, a fair but steep price for a reliever, while also rostering All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Benoit’s lowest strikeout percentage since 2008, as noted by FanGraphs, also creates cause for concern.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are shopping Adam Lind a year after acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays. The first baseman lived up to expectations, hitting .277/.360/.460 with 20 long balls. Milwaukee, however, crumbled to a 68-94 finish, creating low expectations for 2016.

During the season, Milwaukee began the rebuilding cycle by dealing Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra. Lind will return for an affordable $8 million, but the solid slugger isn’t leading the club back into contention, especially not in the loaded National League Central. 

Rather than waste steady gains from the 32-year-old, the Brewers will search for younger talent they can control beyond 2016. An affordable hitter who crushes right-handed pitchers, Lind should attract interest across the league.

Rockies Eyeing Daniel Murphy

After belting seven postseason home runs, Daniel Murphy earned a qualifying offer from the New York Mets. The National League champions have made no efforts to woo the second baseman, whose comments after the World Series indicated the end of a run.

“I’ve enjoyed my time here,” Murphy said after losing to the Kansas City Royals, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. “I really have enjoyed my time. This organization has been great to me. I love the guys. I can’t sing their praises enough. I feel blessed to have been a Met.”

Due to Murphy’s postseason success, he’s an unlikely candidate to accept the qualifying offer. According to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, one team is already interested in his services, if he’s willing to change positions:

Teams probably discuss a lot of kooky things which never see the light of day. Would Ben Zobrist be willing to play every position every game? What if we signed Bartolo Colon as a pinch hitter to increase team morale? A conversation doesn’t always lead to action.

Yet Murphy—a third baseman by trade who moved to steer clear of David Wright—has showcased uneven defense throughout his career. FanGraphs has discredited him for minus-42 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at second since 2011, but he looked decent fielding at first while briefly replacing an injured Lucas Duda in 2015. 

Coors Field is perceived as a homer haven, but it produced more hits of any kind than any other stadium, as measured by ESPN.com’s park factors. A career .288 hitter is likely to hit comfortably over .300 there, and even if his October power surge was an outlier, he could easily hit 20 homers with the Rockies.

The Rockies would have to concede a compensatory draft pick to the Mets, but perhaps they’ll want to return the favor after New York bizarrely poached Michael Cuddyer away from Colorado last year. 

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Honoring the late Yogi Berra’s legacy, the Kansas City Royals constantly proved it ain’t over till it’s over. The New York Mets led all five games of 2015’s MLB World Series, but Kansas City kept earning the last laugh, securing its first championship in 30 years.

It finished just how it had begun. Trailing in the ninth inning, Kansas City clawed back and sent both Game 1 and Game 5 into extra innings. Once free baseball arrived, their prolific bullpen silenced New York’s bats long enough for their pesky offense to eventually strike.

Anyone who says procrastination doesn’t pay didn’t watch Ned Yost’s crew constantly crash the party fashionably late. It wasn’t just the Mets getting their hearts broken, as the Houston Astros held a four-run lead over Kansas City during a winner-take-all Game 5 of the American League Division Series.

ESPN Stats & Info detailed the Royals’ late-game heroics, which ultimately decided the Fall Classic:

Defensive miscues plagued the Mets throughout the series, but a rare Royals defensive mishap nearly cost them Game 1. Eric Hosmer showcased shades of Bill Buckner when a Wilmer Flores grounder rolled past his glove on a tiebreaking run during the eighth frame.

Luckily for him, Alex Gordon erased the mistake with a ninth-inning homer off closer Jeurys Familia, who had not surrendered a run in 9.2 prior postseason innings. The first baseman exhaled after avoiding a place in infamy, per Fox Sports Kansas City’s Joel Goldberg:

By the series’ hectic standards, the ensuing two games proved anticlimactic. The National League champions couldn’t touch Johnny Cueto, who relinquished eight runs in his previous outing. The midseason acquisition who struggled throughout the summer suddenly regenerated into an ace, yielding two hits and one run through a complete-game victory.

Rany Jazayerli, a Grantland writer dating way back to last week, marveled over Cueto‘s redemption:

Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom couldn’t get anybody to miss. The same ace who recorded 27 strikeouts through three NL playoff starts recorded two punchouts and zero whiffs on his fastball.

“We win because we ride our starting pitching,” Mets manager Terry Collins said after Game 2, per Newsday‘s Marc Carig. “When they struggle, we’re going to struggle, and that’s what’s happened.”

These words proved increasingly prescient as the series progressed. He trusted Noah Syndergaard to escape a bases-loaded jam in the sixth inning of Game 3, and Thor complied. In Citi Field’s first-ever World Series game, Collins lived by his young ace and survived. In the other games, his long leash spurred their demise.

Cruising early, rookie Steven Matz suddenly looked gassed during Game 4’s fifth inning, but he stayed in the sixth to cough up a second run. Rather than using Familia—who curiously pitched the previous night with a six-run lead—Collins turned to Tyler Clippard. The slumping setup man walked two batters, and Familia could not extinguish the burning building. 

“We never put our heads down,” catcher Salvador Perez told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star after pelting the go-ahead RBI single off Familia. “Never. We like to compete. We like to play hard. And we’ll see what happens at the end of the game. That’s what we do every game.”

Game 5 seemed different. Matt Harvey, whose postseason availability started in doubt due to a potential innings limit, hurled eight scoreless inning in front of a raucous Queens crowd. The 26-year-old had finally cracked Kansas City’s code, collecting nine strikeouts to seemingly send the series back to Missouri.

Collins, a day after pulling Matz too late, was ready to call it a night for the Dark Knight and let Familia finalize the ninth. Harvey had other plans, coaxing his manager to finish what he started. Collins acquiesced to his pitcher’s plea of “no way,” but there was also no way the Royals would go down without a fight.

A Lorenzo Cain walk and Hosmer double quickly forced Collins to pull the plug. Familia generated three groundouts, but Hosmer aggressively bolted home on the second fielded by Lucas Duda. Trying to catch his fellow first baseman, Duda sailed the throw over Travis d’Arnaud‘s glove, erasing a 2-0 lead and all hope in Flushing.

Even if it wasn’t the right move, it worked. (This is also the working title of Yost’s biography.) Even Hosmer admitted to CNN’s Rachel Nichols that he thought he messed up: 

Kansas City crushed New York for a five-run 12th, commenced by an RBI single from Christian Colon in his first postseason at-bat. Because it’s the Royals.

“I lived it,” Colon said, per McCullough. “You know what I’m saying? I went to bed almost every night, thinking about this moment. And being ready for my team and for my family and everybody.”

On the losing side, Collins won’t dream of similarly pleasant thoughts at night. Per SportsCenter‘s Twitter feed, the 66-year-old skipper took responsibility for the team’s third late meltdown: 

The beast of the game leaves little time to reflect on a successful season. Each squad must make pivotal free-agent decisions this offseason. For the Royals, Cueto and Zobrist—who hit four doubles during the World Series—served their role as midseason mercenaries. Big paydays now loom for each, and Kansas City isn’t likely to sign those checks. Gordon, drafted by the team a decade ago, can opt to enter free agency. 

“I want to be back, trust me. This is my home,” Gordon declared after winning it all, per KCTV5.com’s Chris Oberholtz. “I love Kansas City. I love the fans. I love everything about Kansas City. I couldn’t see myself anywhere else. So, I hope it works out.”

Meanwhile, Daniel Murphy went from homering in six straight games to amassing as many defensive miscues as hits. Courtesy of MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, the second baseman sounds like someone aware of his six-year tenure in New York coming to a conclusion:

I’ve enjoyed my time here. I really have enjoyed my time here. This organization’s been great to me. I love the guys. I can’t sing their praises enough. I thought the fans were awesome this Series. I thought they brought energy. And I most certainly have enjoyed it. I’ve been in this organization since 2006. It makes me feel old to say it. That’s a long time. But I truly, truly enjoyed my time in this organization. I feel blessed to have been a Met this long.

Still, there will be plenty of time to play armchair general manager and plan for 2016 and beyond. While squandering late leads stings now, the Mets defied all expectations by winning the National League East instead of the Washington Nationals. After halting a nine-year playoff drought, they’ll return next year with Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto, painting a bright future.

A year after climbing as high as possible without reaping the rewards, the Royals erased the sour taste of a Game 7 World Series defeat. Every time they looked done, tracing all the way back to losing James Shields last winter, they bounced back.

Now they’re world champions.

“Never give up,” Cain said, per McCullough. “Never give up. Came through again. We’re the comeback kids, if you want to call us.” 

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As the Kansas City Royals celebrate their World Series victory over the New York Mets, MLB teams will waste little time preparing for the offseason.

A few notable World Series participants will quickly shift their focus to free agency. Two drastically different outfielders from each side will hit the open market this winter. While one halted his rapidly rising stock, the other may have boosted his appeal with one monumental swing.

Facing key decisions, the Royals and Mets won’t spend much time basking in their postseason accomplishments. With the offseason beginning, let’s take an early look at three prominent free-agent hitters.

Yoenis Cespedes

Poor postseason aside, Yoenis Cespedes remains one of the offseason’s top free agents. The 30-year-old hit .291/.328/.542 with a career-high 35 home runs, 17 of which he smacked through 57 games with the Mets. Before moving to center field, sensational defense in left led him to a 6.7 WAR, soaring past his previous career best of 3.3. 

His late-season power outburst led the Mets to their first National League East title since 2006, but a report from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman suggests Cespedes‘ status as a midseason rental hasn’t changed. 

“There is increasing belief the Mets will let Yoenis Cespedes walk for big bucks via free agency,” Heyman wrote. “Though Cespedes has played brilliantly for them, people around the game figure they will save the big bucks for their vaunted young pitching staff.”

The postseason has offered a sobering reminder of his flaws. Holding a minuscule 6.1 walk percentage over his career, the aggressive slugger will swing at anything, leading to 17 strikeouts and one walk through 55 playoff plate appearances. There’s a reason he has played on four teams over the past three years, and it’s his .319 career on-base percentage.

Of course, the Mets didn’t mind his poor plate discipline when he clobbered baseballs left and right, but his power barrage priced the outfielder out of their future plans. Playing him in center is also unsustainable over the long haul, and Michael Conforto has left field locked down for 2016 and beyond.

The Detroit Tigers—who dealt him to the Mets last July with the playoffs out of reach—will look to quickly revamp their roster for a return to October baseball. They have the money and willingness to spend big on aging stars, so look for a reunion.

Prediction: Cespedes signs five-year deal with Detroit Tigers

Alex Gordon

If not for Alex Gordon, the Royals are going back to Kansas City to close out the World Series. Instead, he pelted Jeurys Familia for a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 1, making their 14-inning victory possible. The Mets closer had not blown a save since late July before the huge blast.

ESPN Stats & Info also pointed out the rarity of such a clutch World Series dinger:

The playoff heroics can’t hurt the outfielder’s free-agent stock, but he hardly needed the boost. A decade ago, a career .269 hitter who delivers 20 homers during a good year wouldn’t net a massive payday. Now they see a stud who provides Gold Glove defense in left field and an .809 OPS since 2011. 

Veterans with keen plate discipline and gap power age better than pure sluggers, so the 31-year-old outfielder will prove a hot commodity if/when he enacts his opt-out clause for 2016 instead of accruing $12.5 million.

Along with mentioning two fitting suitors, Joel Sherman of the New York Post added another surprising candidate hunting for his services.

“Clubs such as the Astros and Cubs are mentioned in what should be a deep field,” Sherman wrote. “However, a few executives cited one team that has surprised me—the Red Sox.”

The Boston Red Sox have a lot of dough tied up to Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who will move from left field to first base next season. Yet they still have Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo lined up in the outfield, and any money lying around should go to upgrading their pitching staff.

Gordon would fit well with the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs, both up-and-coming contenders loaded with young power but in need of depth and outfield defense.

While Kyle Schwarber can rake for the Cubs, he proved a nightmare in left field during the National League Championship Series. Adding Gordon’s superb bat and glove to their young nucleus would bring the Cubs one step closer to snapping a century-long title drought.

Prediction: Gordon signs four-year deal with Chicago Cubs

Ian Desmond

Contrary to Cespedes and Gordon, Ian Desmond did himself no favors this year. Along with snapping a streak of three consecutive 20-20 campaigns, the shortstop hit a dismal .233/.290/.384 while committing 27 errors.

He rebounded from a brutal start, registering a .777 second-half OPS. Yet buyers will beware his diminishing power and rising strikeout rates, both of which have consistently veered in the wrong direction.

According to Heyman, his strong finish will keep teams interested in Desmond, who will almost certainly leave the Washington Nationals with rookie Trea Turner taking his job.

“Many think the Mets will be serious players for free-agent shortstop Ian Desmond,” Heyman wrote. “The Mariners, Padres, White Sox, Twins and others could also be in the Desmond market.” 

Wilmer Flores delivers intriguing power at shortstop, but his lack of plate discipline and defensive dependability cloud his future. Same for Daniel Murphy, who will probably parlay his seven postseason homers into a big deal elsewhere. So why in the world would the Mets replace one or both of them with a poor defender who can’t get on base?

The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, desperately targeted power last offseason at the cost of fielding. Although hungry to contend, they don’t have the resources to chase top-tier stars, which leaves them eyeing flawed, high-upside talent like Desmond.

In a dried-out market, look for Desmond to take a short deal in hopes of repairing his value.

Prediction: Desmond signs two-year deal with San Diego Padres

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. 

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The Kansas City Royals are one victory away from winning the 2015 World Series crown. For the second time this series, they orchestrated a late rally to upend the New York Mets, extending their lead to 3-1.

New York entered the eighth inning up 3-2, but Kansas City drew two walks off Tyler Clippard before a costly Daniel Murphy error squandered the lead. Two more hits off closer Jeurys Familia extended the edge to 5-3, which held up as the final score.

Steven Matz, who started the season in Single-A, threw five stunning innings. But the rookie pitcher coughed up a second run in the sixth inning, the furthest he has pitched this postseason. Michael Conforto, who also started the season in Single-A, belted two homers that went to waste.

The Royals continued to chip away with nine hits, including Ben Zobrist’s fourth double of the series. Exclaimed by a two-out save from Wade Davis, the bullpen quieted the Mets to one run through five frames. They can now finish the series Sunday night. 

FINAL: Royals 5, Mets 3

Royals Lead Series 3-1 

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Every accolade bestowed upon the Kansas City Royals during the World Series’ off day banished during Game 3, when an uncharacteristically ugly game let the New York Mets diminish the deficit to 2-1.

Kansas City officially didn’t commit any errors, but pitchers Yordano Ventura and Franklin Morales each committed a crucial defensive miscue. Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard recovered from a rough start to contain the contact-heavy offense, recording six strikeouts in a 9-3 victory.

For the second straight evening, New York will send a rookie starter to the mound in Citi Field. Kansas City, on the other hand, will turn to a grizzled veteran 12 years his adversary’s elder. After overflowing the series opener with drama, both sides have traded lopsided victories. These two pennant winners, however, are too evenly matched to anticipate another blowout. 

When: Saturday, October 31, at 8:07 p.m. ET

Where: Citi Field; Queens, New York

TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Probable Pitchers: Chris Young (Royals) vs. Steven Matz (Mets)

Game 4 Preview

Although it hasn’t materialized on the diamond, the Mets seemingly hold one distinctive advantage over the Royals. While the American League champions were simply hoping to deliver the game intact to their prolific bullpen, the Mets needed to ride their starting pitching to victory.

Steven Matz is no pushover, but the rookie doesn’t give them a demonstrative edge. Manager Terry Collins has wisely kept him on a short leash this postseason, working him a combined 9.2 frames through two starts. The pressure becomes even greater to quickly assemble an early lead.

With Matt Harvey already 28 innings over the original 180 limit, the Mets cannot fairly employ the 26-year-old on short rest. They’ll instead rely on the 24-year-old lefty, who has issued a 2.58 ERA through eight career MLB starts.

A lifelong Mets fan who was nine when the Mets last made the World Series is now tasked with evening the best-of-seven slate. Per the team’s Twitter page, he commented on making the biggest start of his life four months after his big league debut:

Against Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Syndergaard, the Royals struck out 10 times. Before hoping for an uptick, they actually fanned fewer times against lefties, recording an MLB-low 15.1 strikeout percentage off southpaws. They have also collected 10 hits off New York’s bullpen this series, which will have Collins feeling uneasy with the game in their hands. 

Chris Young also isn’t expected to go the distance. The 36-year-old righty didn’t last five innings in either playoff start, but he did exactly what Kansas City needed. He limited the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays to three scores through 8.2 innings, giving Kansas City’s relief corps a chance to win.

The advanced metrics say Young should get shelled. Throwing a mid-80s fastball, he produced a lowly 16.6 strikeout percentage along with an 8.6 walk percentage. He registered more hard-hit balls (33.4 percent) than grounders (25.5 percent), leading to a 4.52 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 5.15 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). 

He also posted a 3.06 ERA. Did he benefit from luck, or does he have skills enabling him to overcome expected regression? Perhaps both. A .209 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) helped his cause, but his career .247 BABIP resides well below the average hurler. A 14.8 infield-fly percentage, the easiest out among batted balls, produces a chunk of weak offense.

This is important to note against the Mets. As Ben Lindbergh explained in Grantland’s World Series preview, a matchup of a fly-ball pitcher and fly-ball hitter favors the pitcher, leading to more pop-ups rather than home runs. He predicted this trend especially helping Young:

The Royals have a fly ball staff: Only the Angels and Rays had higher fly ball rates this season. Mets batters, meanwhile, recorded the fifth-highest fly ball rate (and the third-highest among position players), a trait that only intensified with Cespedes in the fold. In theory, these batted-ball tendencies should sap some of the Mets’ power, forcing them to swing under balls that they usually center. The effect should be especially strong against über-fly-baller Chris Young, who’s had success in both of the big parks in this series.

Oddly enough, Young has registered 15 punchouts through 11.2 scoreless frames. Used in relief duty during Game 1’s 14-inning grind, he struck out four Mets through three hitless frames. The veteran earned the win, but he acknowledged the stat’s uselessness to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan:

Baseball Savant’s Daren Willman provided a more telling stat of Young’s enhanced velocity in Game 1:

He can’t go full throttle back in a starting role, but he realistically won’t throw more than five frames on three days’ rest. A fresh Kris Medlen, who surprisingly pitched on Friday, should still be Kansas City’s first option in a long-relief role. In 14.1 innings out of the bullpen, the 30-year-old limited opponents to a .553 OPS.

In a game that will boil down to the late innings, look for the Royals bullpen (not Franklin Morales), speed and defense to pull off a narrow victory. 

Prediction: Royals 5, Mets 4

All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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