Kuzul

Having lost six of their last seven games, the Minnesota Twins’ fast start has slowed considerably.

Though still six games above .500, the Twins are no longer at the top of the AL Central. While fans and media are jumping off the bandwagon left and right, Minnesota is trying desperately to find what’s ailing them and fix the problem.

Are the Twins being hurt because of a poor offense, or is the pitching doing them in? As is usually the case, Minnesota can attribute their drop in the standings to a combination of both offense and pitching.

Check out the table below for a quick run-down on the Twins’ struggles in June:

In the 25 games the Twins have played in June this season, they have had a net loss of 1.14 runs per game. As you can see, if the Twins don’t burst from this slump and start scoring and preventing runs at a much better clip, they will have no chance of postseason contention.

But in order to break free from the shackles they currently find themselves in, the Twins will need to bank on a few key players finding their groove once again.

Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer have lost an average of 159 OPS points in June. JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson, Minnesota’s starting shortstop and second baseman, have combined to appear in just 15 games during the month of June.

As a team, the Twins have dropped 82 OPS points in the same month. Essentially, Minnesota hitters have transformed from Cody Ross to Christian Guzman.

Clearly, the offense has been an issue for the Twins. Luckily, most of these players will be unable to keep up this futility for too long, and should start slowly pulling themselves out of the mud.

Minnesota’s starting rotation, though, could be a bigger issue.

Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano have been excellent for the Twins this year, but the other 60 percent of the rotation has been downright dreadful. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn have combined to post an ERA of 7.17 in the month of June, which, at the major-league level, is laughable and simply unacceptable.

Still, a few of these rotation members should be able to get back on track before too long.

Blackburn, though, has sandwiched an outstanding May with a horrendous April and June. If the Twins were to acquire a starting pitcher before the July 31 trade deadline, Blackburn would be the one to go. And, let’s face it, replacing Blackburn’s innings with that of a league-average starter (or even Cliff Lee) would drastically improve the team.

Yes, the month of June has left Twins’ fans with a rotten taste in their mouths. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have had very strong months, and are flying up the standings.

Chicago won 15 of 17 games at one point and are about to hold a mini-fire sale, though, and will inevitably fall back to third in the division. The Tigers will endure a tough month or two, as well, and the Twins will have an opportunity to re-gain some ground.

After all, baseball is a six-month sport.

Unlike football or basketball, one extended losing streak won’t derail a season. The Twins have plenty of time to address their needs, catch their breath, and engage in a dogfight with Detroit.

There’s no time like the present, and with the Tigers in town for a three-game series, the Twins need to take advantage.

We’ve hardly reached the do-or-die point in the season, but a series win against Detroit this week would do wonders to Minnesota’s attempts to break out of a funk.

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Originally posted at TwinsMVB.com .

With a few months of the minor league season in the books, and with several players having been either promoted or demoted throughout the system, it’s time for another minor league check-in.

Here are three players who Twins fans should be keeping their eye on this year:

Kyle Gibson, SP, New Britain Rock Cats

After dominating his opposition at the Fort Myers Miracle, Gibson sported a 1.87 ERA on the season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was looking excellent, and a few thought the former first-round pick may be able to challenge for a September call-up later in 2010.

Since being promoted to Double-A New Britain, Gibson has received a harsh welcome. Through seven starts, Gibson has a 4.83 ERA to go with an inflated WHIP. He is being hit much harder in New Britain, but has managed to keep his K/BB ratio intact and as appealing as ever.

Nearly all hope of a 2010 appearance with the major league club has been dissolved, but Gibson should still be able to finish the season with the Rochester Red Wings. He will contend for a rotation spot to start the 2011 season.

Joe Benson, OF, New Britain Rock Cats

Benson was one of the first Twins to be promoted this season, as he was sent from Fort Myers to New Britain. He has played 40 games at the Double-A level, and has proved that he isn’t over-matched at the higher level.

He is still struggling with strikeouts, but Benson’s .350/.478 on-base and slugging percentages are among the best in Minnesota’s organization. Benson has hit 12 home runs so far this season, and is stealing more bases than he has in the past.

Although the Twins’ outfield is jam-packed with talented players, if Benson keeps hitting like this it will be impossible to leave him out of the major league picture for too long.

Miguel Sano, 3B/OF, Dominican Summer League

One of the Twins’ biggest international signings in their history, Sano, has been raking opposing pitching through his first 14 games. Hitting .341/.444/.636, Sano has shown himself to be a natural hitter at the Hot Corner.

Of course, he’s only had about 50 professional plate appearances, and Sano will need many more years before he is polished enough to join the big league club. When Sano is ready for big-league action, the Twins will be more than happy to accommodate him.

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For as long as I can remember, the Twins have been a small market team. Rare were blockbuster trades or multi-year signings for the Minnesota teams of the past few decades.

All of that changed this season. With a new stadium expected to bring a revenue increase, and an owner who isn’t afraid to spend some cash, the Twins had one of their most expensive offseasons in franchise history. By bringing in JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson, and Clay Condrey, as well as extending Carl Pavano and Joe Mauer, the Twins gave a clear message to their fans: We’re no longer a small market.

The Twins haven’t yet been able to show off this “large market mentality” during the Hot Stove season. With July 31 growing closer every day, Minnesota has begun to assert themselves as a possible destination for several trade targets. Could Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, or Dan Haren be wearing a Twins’ uniform on August 1?

Most fans don’t seem to think so. The Twins have been a small market team for eons, and a philosophical change isn’t something that can be accepted overnight. Minnesota has relied upon home-grown talent and frugality for a long time, and trading for a three-month rental seems a little far-fetched.

In reality, though, the Twins have correctly identified themselves as a large market team. (Or, at the very least, no longer a small market team.) The revenue is pouring in, and Minnesota is no longer burdened with financial handcuffs. If the Twins need to take on additional salary to fund a late-season playoff push, they will do so.

But in order to get Lee, Oswalt, or Haren, the Twins will need to be willing to part with something that could be worth more than just money: players.

This is where most fans get off the train. They, myself included, are much more willing to spend Minnesota’s money than they are to trade away players. It’s hard to blame us; trading away future value for a smaller amount of current value is never an easy thing to do. If the Twins wish to win their first World Series since ’91, though, they may be forced to make a few trades that appear lopsided.

For the sake of discussion, let’s say the Twins just traded Nick Blackburn, Wilson Ramos, and Bobby Lanigan for Cliff Lee. Most likely, the futures of Blackburn, Ramos, and Lanigan will hold much more value than three months of Lee (and the two compensatory prospects received). By looking solely at the numbers, that trade doesn’t make much sense. If Minnesota were to advance to the World Series, though, the loss of value would hardly be an issue.

For the Twins, the value of an added win is extremely high. The AL Central title will most probably come to the winner of a late-season dogfight, and Minnesota would gladly pay top-dollar for one additional victory. (Much more than, say, the Houston Astros would pay to improve their win total from 69 to 70.)

As Seth Stohs mentions in his blog entry this morning, the Twins need to walk the fine line between winning in 2010 and not crippling the team’s ability to compete in the future. Trading away two top prospects would hardly be a crippling blow to the Twins’ organization, though, and the few extra wins that a player like Lee would bring would be well worth the cost.

Now, for some trade predictions, in order of preference:

Minnesota gets: Dan Haren, SP
Arizona gets: Anthony Swarzak, SP, Jeff Manship, SP, and BJ Hermsen, SP

Minnesota gets: Cliff Lee, SP
Seattle gets: Nick Blackburn, SP, Wilson Ramos, C, and Bobby Lanigan, SP

Minnesota gets : Roy Oswalt, SP
Houston gets: Wilson Ramos, C, Anthony Swarzak, SP, Adrian Salcedo, SP

What do you think? Will the Twins make a trade before July 31, 2010?

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Originally published at TwinsMVB.com .

The Twins certainly didn’t stray from their organizational philosophy in this most recent MLB Draft. Holding the twenty-first overall selection in the Rule 4 Draft, Minnesota made several selections of players that fill a mold that Twins’ fans have grown familiar with. Here is a brief run-down of Minnesota’s first three picks.

21st pick: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State (6′2”, 195 lbs)

Wimmers is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins have historically favored in the draft. Although he doesn’t possess a blazing fastball, Wimmers is able to consistently throw three pitches for strikes. His curveball has the possibility to develop into a ‘60’ pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale, according to Keith Law , while his changeup could reach ‘65.’ Wimmer’s fastball ranges from 89-92 mph, which is why he will rely on his offspeed stuff in the future.

One of the safest picks in the draft, Wimmers is a very polished pitcher and should be able to fly through the minor league system, perhaps reaching the Twins’ rotation in the middle of 2011. Of course, the sooner he signs the sooner he can fill out a rotation spot in Minnesota.

71st pick: Niko Goodrum, OF, Fayette County HS, Jonesboro, Ga. (6′3”, 175 lbs)

A toolsy 18-year old from Georgia, Goodrum was one of the more high risk/high reward players in the draft this year. He is a switch hitter, and played shortstop in high school, though both of those are in question as he transitions to professional baseball. Goodrum will probably move to center field to take advantage of his plus speed and arm.

Goodrum’s main concern lies in his ability to make contact. His raw strength shows great power potential, but he needs to make contact before he can send the ball into the seats. The Twins have tons of athleticism to work with, but Goodrum could very likely be a complete bust at the minor-league level. With the Twins coaching and development staff working their magic, though, I wouldn’t bet against Goodrum having a long major-league career.

102nd pick: Pat Dean, LHP, Boston College (6′1”, 175 lbs)

Any left-handed pitcher has a better-than-average change of making it in professional baseball, but Dean’s polished four-pitch repertoire gives him an even better chance. Dean’s sum is greater than his parts, as no aspect of his game is far above average. The fact that he possesses an average ability to do so much, though, is where he finds his value.

An average fastball, changeup, curve, and slider are available to Dean, though he didn’t use his off-speed pitches very much because of the low quality of his opponents. Dean’s above-average command and control are probably what attracted him most to the Twins, and he should move through the minor-league system with relative ease.

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Originally published at TwinsMVB.com .

Starting the season with low expectations and a very young team, the Oakland Athletics find themselves at the top of their division through the first third of the season.

In the Oakland Colosseum, the Athletics boast an impressive 19-8 record. As the Twins attempt to shake off a disappointing series with Seattle, the Athletics appear to be an intimidating foe.

Game One

Baker (5-4, 4.48 ERA) vs. Braden (4-5, 3.60 ERA)

As I’m sure you’re aware, Braden tossed the first perfect game of this historic 2010 season. Despite being forever plastered in the record books, though, Braden is not an elite pitcher. His BABIP is unusually low, which is why his FIP is higher than his impressive-on-the-surface ERA.

Braden has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and is very prone to the home run ball. He doesn’t strike out many opposing batters at all, though his fastball/changeup duo are noteworthy.

Baker, on the other hand, has fought off some tough luck so far this season.

His BABIP is a few points higher than his career average, which indicates a possible regression of opposing batters’ ability to keep their batted balls out of Minnesota gloves. Baker’s strikeout and ground ball rates are higher than last year, and he’s averaging just over six innings of work per start.

Twins fans have long been searching for an ace since Johan Santana was dealt away. Liriano hasn’t been able to fill the void, but so far this season, Baker has looked everything like an ace.

If Baker can step up and help the Twins finish off this tough road series on a good note, the unofficial designation of “staff ace” is his to lose.

Game Two

Liriano (5-3, 3.29 ERA) vs. Cahill (4-2, 3.02 ERA)

So far this season, few pitchers have been as lucky as Trevor Cahill. With a BABIP of just .222, he is sure to regress to the mean eventually.

Will it be against the Twins tomorrow night? Probably not.

Even so, Cahill has struck out opposing batters at one of the lowest rates in the league and walked around three per nine innings. He has been aided by an extremely good ground ball rate, as well as a great strand rate.

Liriano started the season off beautifully, but struggled for a brief three-game stretch before returning to his groove.

If you remove Liriano’s starts on May 8, 15, and 20 from his season total, his ERA drops to just 2.02. Even with the low ERA (which isn’t the best way to evaluate a pitcher), Liriano’s FIP is even lower. He has struggled through a very high BABIP of .349, striking out just over nine opposing batters per nine innings.

With five days of rest, Liriano’s ERA is 1.78. Unfortunately, Liriano will only get four days of R&R during this turn of the starting rotation, where he has an ERA of 5.76.

Game Three

Blackburn (6-2, 4.73 ERA) vs. Gonzalez (5-3, 3.68 ERA)

Fortunately, the Twins will be able to escape Oakland without being forced to find an answer for Brett Anderson. Instead, they will take on three young starters who boast very impressive ERAs and are currently riding lucky streaks.

Gonzalez has been able to limit baserunners at a great clip this year, with a WHIP of just 1.29. He hasn’t struck out many, though, and his strand rate is way above his career average.

Blackburn has been one of the more disappointing Twins’ pitchers this year.

He is currently dead last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and his walk and home run rate are both higher than last year. Blackburn’s ability to induce ground balls is up, but his stats don’t look to be aided by a BABIP regression anytime soon.

He has been able to provide the Twins with plenty of average innings, though—he’s averaged 6.42 innings per start so far this season.

It’s way too early to apply the “must-win” label to this series, but two or even three wins in Oakland could help the Twins prepare for a tough interleague stretch later this month.

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(Originally posted on TwinsMVB.com ) Another rematch against a team that we just can’t seem to beat.

After being swept in the season series against the Yankees last year and losing two of three to them in our first meeting this year, the Twins will be considered the underdog in this series, despite what the above numbers say.

Should the Twins fail to win this series against the Bronx Bombers, there will undoubtedly be people throwing in the towel on the season, citing the Twins’ inability to beat the “good teams” that they will be paired up against in the postseason.

That’s certainly an overreaction, but winning two of three in the Yankees’ first visit to Target Field sure would be nice.

Game One – Burnett (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Baker (4-4, 4.88 ERA)

AJ Burnett has certainly been having a great season and was among the early favorites for Cy Young before he got rocked for six runs in just under seven innings a few days ago. Ignoring that last start, Burnett has been an above-average starter. He isn’t striking out his usual total, though, and he is giving up plenty of hits.

If an offensively potent team can string some hits together—like the Rays did last week—Burnett’s ERA may rise a few dozen points. On the face of things, it appears as if Baker is in his “start the season slow” mode.

With a relatively high 4.88 ERA, Baker is hardly pitching well enough to be considered the staff’s “ace.” As evidenced by his abnormally-high .343 BABIP and improved groundball rate, Baker may be on the cusp of a few lucky breaks.

Baker is striking out the most in his career, walking opposing batters at a very low clip, and has the 25th-lowest xFIP in baseball: 3.70.

Game Two – Pettitte (5-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA)

Andy Pettitte has been the anti-Baker so far this year. Although his ERA and win/loss record is appealing, his xFIP is a much-higher 4.34, which testaments to his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and low BABIP, all of which indicate a regression to the mean in the very near future.

Pettitte also has a very impressive 82.2 strand-rate, which simply isn’t sustainable over the course of a whole season.

After posting a 7.02 ERA over his last three starts, Liriano seems to have finally convinced people that he will never return to his pre-surgery form. Even with three less-than-desirable starts so far this year, Liriano’s intangibles have been right in line of what we expect: a solid strikeout rate and an average walk rate.

His almost complete aversion of the long-ball this year (he’s given up just two home runs all season) is also good to see.

Game Three – Vazquez (3-4, 6.69 ERA) vs. Blackburn (5-1, 4.50 ERA)

After dealing away a package centering around Melky Cabrera for Javy Vazquez, the Yankees are undoubtedly upset with their return. Vazquez, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, is off to a terrible start with New York. His sky-high ERA is only slightly worse than the advanced stats claim, and hope can’t even be gleaned from his BABIP, which is maddeningly (at least for Yankees fans) normal.

Blackburn, on the other hand, has pitched worse than his ERA indicates. Striking out an extremely low 2.50 batters per nine innings (the lowest mark in baseball among qualified pitchers) and giving up far more than his fair share of home runs, Blackburn has been “off” this season.

His BABIP isn’t too far off line and he is inducing more groundballs than he usually does, which is what he needs to do to be successful in 2010. Against the mighty Yankees offense, I’m guessing a full return to his usually-reliable self isn’t going to happen.

This series will be the last time the Twins play the Yankees this season. While too much shouldn’t be read into a mid-May series, any matchup of two of the best teams in baseball is important.

Another series loss would leave an awful taste in Twins fans’ mouths, but a good showing could help spring-board a successful June for Minnesota.

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Remember when we thought that Glen Perkins could be a large part of a trade for San Diego closer Heath Bell?

Now, not so much.

Thanks to the emergence of Francisco Liriano, Perkins was forced to begin the season in Triple-A Rochester where the 27-year-old would hopefully build up his trade value. Through his first seven starts in the Twins’ minor league system, Perkins is 0-5 with a 10.08 ERA and a 1.988 WHIP.

With a career Major League ERA of 4.73 in 281.2 innings, Perkins is either still hurt or simply forgot how to pitch. Perkins made his last start on Saturday, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings. His ERA actually dropped .64 points.

Perkins hit the shelf late last season with tendinitis in his left shoulder. He missed 23 days on the disabled list, and the Twins’ failure to give Perkins service time during his rehab stint procured a Berlin Wall of ill feelings between the two parties.

Throwing a total of 12 innings in 2009 between Rookie-League and High-A, Perkins amassed an ERA of 2.25. He faced 45 batters and struck out nine while walking just one. Even if there were still concerns over Perkin’s shoulder, the Twins didn’t seem to be worried.

During Spring Training this year Perkins complained of lower back stiffness, which some dismissed as simply another cry for attention from a whiny pitcher who wasn’t very good in the first place. Could either his left shoulder or lower back be acting up again?

Some cite Perkins’ very high opinion of himself as problematic. Could the sharp drop in production due to injury have impacted Perkin’s confidence, resulting in horrid starts this year in Triple-A? Or is he as cocky as ever, but still hurt?

Either way, there is little chance Perkins sees Major League action with the Twins this season. He is quite a ways down the totem pole in Rochester. If the Twins’ starting rotation suffers a devastating series of injuries, Perkins may not even be the third player called up.

Perkins may be a hometown kid who grew up dreaming of a chance to play for the Twins, but any future Major League success will come with another franchise. For the sake of both the Rochester rotation and Perkins career, the Twins need to part ways with the 6’0″ lefty.

If they don’t, this Perkins Problem may develop into something even more distracting.

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