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Masahiro Tanaka’s Clutch Complete Game Provides Yankees Needed Ace Presence

Momentum is such a fickle thing in Major League Baseball.

While the narrative and storyline that comes along with it feed the public’s interest and make for good radio, column and bar-stool fodder, the truth is momentum in that sport shifts from day to day, inning to inning and even batter to batter. All the momentum in the world—negative and positive—can be altered by one misplaced pitch, a swat of a hanging breaking ball or the twirling of a gorgeous complete game.

The Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and all their fans now know that after Masahiro Tanaka delivered his outing of the season in a complete-game, one-run, five-hit, eight-strikeout gem Saturday. With that 4-1 victory at Rogers Center—again in a playoff-like atmosphere—the Yankees have proved the runaway train that was once the Blue Jays will not disappear into the distance with the American League East title.

And if Tanaka can return to the pitcher who resembled a budding ace in 2014, he would suddenly give the Yankees a front man for their rotation and someone who can match up with Toronto ace David Price. Tanaka also provides New York with desperately needed depth in a rotation that seemed to be in flux entering this critical weekend series.

“He was great,” Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters of Tanaka. “He was on, he was hitting his spots.”

“My mindset was I wanted to go as deep into the game as possible,” Tanaka told reporters through a translator. “I’m just really satisfied that I was able to do that.”

This was the best outing of Tanaka’s season. The 26-year-old Japanese right-hander had shown only flashes this year of what made him the Yankees’ $155 million import and future ace. He lived up to the billing last season by posting a 2.77 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 20 starts before a partial UCL tear shelved him for the final 65 games. 

In Tanaka’s previous 16 starts this season, he had a 3.79 ERA and 4.18 FIP. His strikeouts were down, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was down, and his 102 adjusted ERA showed he was an average pitcher. That mediocrity is part of what made the non-waiver trade deadline such a disappointment for Yankees fans, and it is the reason the team had to call up top pitching prospect Luis Severino when Michael Pineda went on the disabled list earlier this month.

While that was happening with the Yankees, the Blue Jays went out and landed Price, bullpen help and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki at the deadline, which made them look like the most complete team in the American League for a span of 15-plus games. It would have been 16 had Blue Jays reliever Aaron Sanchez not served up a go-ahead home run to Carlos Beltran on Friday, spoiling a great outing by Price.

But that momentum is such a fleeting beast.

The Blue Jays rode that two-week stretch to the top of the AL East, erasing an eight-game deficit in 14 games to go up a half-game in the division. At that point, the narrative suggested the Blue Jays were world-beaters and the Yankees were suckers for not nabbing a front-line starter in July.

Going into this weekend in Toronto, the series winner would have the advantage entering the season’s final seven weeks, although it’s still a long schedule when you play almost daily. But if the Yankees did not want to be bombarded with questions about what their problems were and if they could envision themselves catching a team as hot as the Blue Jays, they had to do something.

“Up to this point, I think today was one of the most important games that I’ve pitched in,” Tanaka told reporters.

And he delivered his best of the year, giving the Yankees hope that this is the Tanaka they can expect through this playoff push and once they get to the postseason.

Pineda, who went on the DL with a strained forearm, is expected back at some point this month so long as no setbacks happen. Severino has been impressive in two starts on a relatively short leash. And Ivan Nova is a wild card the Yankees can hardly afford to play with all the chips in the middle of the table.

This is why it’s so significant that Tanaka again looks like the ace of the rotation. When he is right, he undoubtedly gives New York the kind of arm that can go pitch for pitch with the likes of Price, Johnny Cueto and Dallas Keuchel, the other aces of the league.

The Yankees might not have pulled off a blockbuster trade for a starting pitcher, and they might have lost one to the DL for a brief time. But if Tanaka becomes as dominant as he was in 2014, that return to form is as valuable as any ace on the market would have been.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


10 Biggest Takeaways from Week 19’s MLB Action

This week brought teams to their 50-game marks, signaling the stretch run for the 10 postseason spots and Major League Baseball’s exciting scoreboard watching.

But Week 19 of this season brought us more than just wins, losses and jockeying in the standings. It brought us stupid quotes from a floundering team, a stupid decision from a franchise with an already spotty track record and more trade rumors, among other happenings.

The Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals showed they will be forces through the season’s final turn. The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros showed they are vulnerable, and the San Francisco Giants took us back to the simpler times of the late ’80s and early ’90s.

More important than all of that, Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell announced Friday he was fighting a “highly curable” form of cancer and will not coach the team for the remainder of the season. He learned he had lymphoma earlier in the week, and chemotherapy will start next week.

The Farrell news is the latest in an eventful MLB week. We wrap it all up here in Bleacher Report’s 10 takeaways from Week 19.

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Mike Trout’s MVP Road Should Be Easier Than Expected in 2015

In the movies and on TV, the cool kid who transfers into a new school mid-year is always a point of wonder—the girls swoon over him, and he immediately becomes popular simply because he has the mystery of being new.

Baseball award races can be that way sometimes. You don’t necessarily have to be the best in order to win. You just have to show up at the right time—sort of the way R.A. Dickey swiped Clayton Kershaw’s Cy Young Award in 2012.

That is happening again in the American League MVP race this season.

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson is the newcomer, turning heads and forcing his peers to do double takes in his direction. He is certainly worthy of consideration, and in many other years before 2012, his season would have won the award going away.

The problem for Donaldson: Mike Trout is still playing in the same league. Also, Trout is the best player the sport has to offer, and he has been since 2012.

So, as long as the Baseball Writers Association of America’s AL MVP voters do not decide they are tired of the Trout storyline, the Los Angeles Angels‘ 24-year-old center fielder should take the honor for the second consecutive season after finishing second in the two years before that.

Trout went into Thursday leading the league in adjusted OPS (180, which would be the highest of his already dashing career), isolated power (.300), FanGraphs WAR (6.5) and Baseball-Reference WAR (6.9). He was second in home runs (33), slugging percentage (.600), wOBA (.416) and wRC+ (176), third in OBP (.393) and ninth in walk rate (11.8 percent).

In those telling offensive categories Trout did not lead in, Donaldson was not the reason. He does not check in higher than Trout on any of those lists.

Oh, and Trout ranks where he does despite having a crummy August—.159/.275/.250 going into Thursday—since he injured his wrist late last month diving for a ball. That cold stretch is part of the reason the gap has closed and Donaldson is in the discussion.

But Trout has not gone into prolonged slumps in his brief career, so as long as he is healthy, a breakout could be coming soon to truly put this race to bed.

“I still like Mike Trout to win the award. I would not bet against him,” Sports Illustrated baseball writer Tom Verducci said on its website. “But at least now, we have some intrigue.”

Donaldson betters Trout in some categories. He has more total bases and RBI (255 and 85, to Trout’s 248 and 70), which is more of a product of Donaldson’s team, and he rates better defensively, though center field is a far more premium position than third base.

Another thing that has to be considered when discussing the MVP race—and only because BBWAA voting history forces us to—is where the Angels and Blue Jays sit in the standings. Toronto currently leads the AL East, while the Angels have a two-game lead for the second wild-card spot. If the Angels miss the playoffs, it could factor into voting, as it did in the National League‘s MVP race in 2011 when Ryan Braun beat out Matt Kemp. 

While that should not matter—a single player has little control over the six-month success or failure of his team—it unfortunately does to a certain segment of the voters, especially when a race might be viewed as close.

Also, the voting base is human, and Toronto’s recent surge (14 wins in the last 15 games), if it earns a playoff berth, will be in recent memory and could play a factor in Donaldson’s receiving votes over Trout.

Then again, if the Blue Jays storm into the postseason, ace David Price could earn some votes. If that happens—which it could, since the Jays were about a .500 team before the Price trade last month—it would steal votes from Donaldson, widening the gap between him and Trout.

For Donaldson to have a real shot, Trout would have to remain pedestrian in his team’s final 48 games, and Donaldson would have to remain scorching-hot in his team’s next 46. In his 24 second-half games before going 0-for-4 Thursday, Donaldson hit .308/.413/.725 with a 1.138 OPS and 10 home runs.

Reality tells us Donaldson comes back to this planet sometime soon, Trout has a bit of a rebound, and the MVP race will not end up as close as it might seem right now.

This year, there is no Miguel Cabrera Triple Crown to contend with. There are no other players clearly trumping Trout’s all-around value. And his team’s success/failure might be his biggest challenge to walking away with the MVP award this season, making him the eighth AL player to win it in consecutive seasons.

While Trout might have to swat away the new contender on the block, he is still the best player in the game and the most valuable in this league. Period.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Cubs’ Young Bats, Veteran Rotation Perfect Mix to Keep Matching the Hype

For almost four years now, there has been absolutely no shortage of hype.

Ever since Theo Epstein agreed to turn around the Chicago Cubs to the tune of $18.5 million for five years, the North Side faithful—and beyond—have salivated for the season when the new president of baseball operations would make good. In Epstein’s fourth season running the show, the hype is now developing into substance.

Epstein, along with general manager Jed Hoyer and the Ricketts family’s deep pockets, has used the draft (Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber), the domestic and international free-agent markets (Jon Lester and Jorge Soler) and shrewd trades (Anthony Rizzo and Jake Arrieta) to build the Cubs into legitimate contenders in 2015.

With a mix of young position players and some veteran pitching, the Cubs’ plan has gone from living off potential to a win-now attitude. And finally, with a recent surge that has seen them win 11 times in 12 games to move into the second wild-card spot, the Cubs’ play is matching the hype.

“Keep it rolling,” manager Joe Maddon told reporters after Tuesday night’s win, which put the Cubs 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of 2008 and a year after finishing 16 games below .500. “The next goal is 20. I’m really proud of these guys and the way they’re going about their business.”

Right now is the first time in Epstein’s reign that excitement on the major league field has been anywhere near this current level. The Cubs are 3.5 games ahead of the San Francisco Giants for that second wild-card berth, and it would be the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 2008. If Chicago can get there and manage to win a game, it would be its first playoff victory since 2003.

Just based on where this club was at the end of last season, it would appear the Cubs are about a year ahead of a reasonable contending schedule.

Considering that on any given day, six of their regular position starters are 25 years old or younger, growing pains and inconsistency would be an understandable hurdle as they adapt to major league rigors and pitching. That is why Epstein was ecstatic with the team’s midseason record.

“If somebody came up to me in spring training and said here’s where you’ll be at the end of the first half, I’d have taken it in a heartbeat,” Epstein told the Associated Press (via the New York Times) last month when the Cubs were seven games over .500 at the All-Star break.

There have been bumps.

All-Star rookie third baseman Bryant hit .177/.302/.329 with 31 strikeouts over his previous 23 games before he went 1-for-4 with a double and five men left on base Tuesday. But there have also been clear signs of why the Cubs had the No. 1-rated farm system in baseball entering this season, according to John Manuel of Baseball America.

The team’s top four prospects are all in the majors right now, and the last man to debut, catcher/left fielder Schwarber, hit .385/.484/.808 with a 1.292 OPS, two doubles and three home runs in his previous seven games going into Tuesday.

Part of the credit can go to Maddon. He is in his first year on the job with the Cubs after earning a reputation as an open-minded analytical manager with the Tampa Bay Rays. There, he worked under then-GM Andrew Friedman, who has the same kind of reputation. Friedman now runs a similar ship to Chicago’s front office with the Los Angeles Dodgers (he is the president of baseball ops with a whiz-kid GM, Farhan Zaidi).

But more of the credit has to go to the fact the Cubs have as much talent as any team in the sport. And the credit for that has to go to Epstein and Hoyer, as does the construction of the veteran pitching staff, which has a 2.61 ERA in its last 12 games.

The rotation in particular is the group solidifying the Cubs’ run to the postseason. The front office got the OK from ownership to pursue a difference-making starter over the winter, and Epstein’s gang went hard on Lester and landed him for six years at $155 million, the largest contract in franchise history.

Days before netting Lester, the Cubs signed Jason Hammel to a free-agent deal. Those two, along with Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and recently acquired Dan Haren, give the team a balance of youth on one side and experience on the other. In that same 12-game stretch, the rotation has a sub-3.00 ERA.

There will be some correction over the team’s next 51 games. The offense won’t be so potent as its 116 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) in August, according to FanGraphs. And the pitching won’t be so dominant through the end of the regular season. But that correction won’t be so dramatic that it takes the Cubs out of contention.

This team has the right combination of youthful upside and veteran experience that makes almost every other organization envious until they are a bright shade of green.

“These last 11 games have helped us as far as our mentality and getting out of a group rut that we were in,” Rizzo told reporters Tuesday after going 2-for-3 to raise his average to .419 in August. “We’re all very confident here and have to keep it going. The mentality in here has been unbelievable.”

Because of that, the possibility of this Cubs team breaking its 107-year World Series drought is becoming less unbelievable as the hype is becoming justified.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Nats Manager Matt Williams’ Job Security Has Reached Its Breaking Point

The most heralded, touted and celebrated team before the season started has used the first four-plus months of it to become easily the most disappointing.

The Washington Nationals would have shocked no one by winning 100 games this year, or by winning the National League East by double digits or by finishing the season with the Cy Young and MVP Award favorites on their roster. Coming off a year in which they won 96 games and then signed the best starting pitcher available in free agency, the Nationals were the clear favorites in their division and the popular pick to represent their league in the 2015 World Series.

But through spring training, Opening Day and into the dog days of right now, things have gone awry. Sure, there is the injury card, but it has also been dealt to league favorites like the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers, so that excuse does not play at a table where those teams remain favorites to win their divisions. And unlike those teams, the Nationals currently do not hold a postseason berth with about 50 games to go.

Because of all of this, manager Matt Williams’ seat on the bench should be boiling. The security of his gig is at its breaking point, and it has been since the start of August, when the Nats went into Queens at the top of the standings and were swept back to the capital a second-place team.

Things remained bad during Washington’s seven-game home stand that wrapped up Sunday with a loss to the last-place Colorado Rockies. The Nationals finished the homecoming 3-4 and are now in the midst of a road trip that pits them against the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. They are scheduled to face Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.

The Mets series was the tipping point for a fanbase that has had plenty of criticism for Williams since he took over the job from Davey Johnson last season. Bullpen management, or a lack of competency for it, has been the sticking point, and that is the one area a manager can least afford to screw up. You can make ridiculous decision after nonsensical decision as a skipper, but if you can manage your bullpen, it masks a whole lot. Just ask Ned Yost, the Kansas City Royals’ front man.

How Williams handled his bullpen against the Mets drew sharp criticism locally and nationally. It was deserved. Equipped with a new weapon in his bullpen war chest, the NL’s reigning Manager of the Year never deployed closer Jonathan Papelbon or his previous closer Drew Storen despite there being plenty of high-leverage situations that called for it. Not for one single pitch, over the entire series.

Together, those relievers entered Monday with a combined 2.17 ERA, and it was lower at the time of the Mets series.

“Matt Williams has made all kinds of strange decisions this year,” Grantland’s Jonah Keri said on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight on Monday. “The bullpen certainly. … There’s been a lot of talk about what’s going on in D.C. and that they’re underachieving. The Nationals should be the best team in that division. They clearly haven’t [been]. You can’t blame it all on injuries. Williams, at least tactically, has hurt that club sometimes.”

This is a long-standing issue for Williams, and it’s the No. 1 gripe pinned on him by the frustrated fanbase. That became embarrassingly clear when fans were allowed to tweet questions to Williams as a part of the club’s local MASN broadcasts, as detailed by Scott Allen of the Washington Post last week. Honestly, this kind of comical backfire should have been predictable.

There are Matt Williams defenders. Sort of. More so, there are some less willing to crucify him on Twitter, where a simple search for the manager’s name and the word “fire” will drum up endless results—the same can be said for several, if not all, managers.

But this is not knee-jerk trolling. Not at all. This is rooted in bullpen mismanagement that is as deep as Williams’ tenure will allow, which is illustrated by another simple Google search of the manager’s name and the words “bullpen mismanagement.”

Williams’ bullpen maneuvers were questioned last season, but those questions turned into fiery pitchforks in October. The first head-scratcher came in Game 2 of last year’s National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants when Williams removed ace Jordan Zimmermann with a one-run lead and one out to go for the complete-game shutout. Storen allowed the inherited runner to score, and the game was eventually lost 100 hours later in the 18th inning.

Then, in Game 4, Williams’ decisions were indefensible. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs gave a great detail of them immediately after they were made, but the basic rundown is that in the seventh inning of a tied do-or-die game for the Nationals, Williams put relievers Matt Thornton and Aaron Barrett, a rookie, in clear positions to fail. Thornton matched up horribly with Buster Posey, and Barrett had control problems. Posey got a hit off Thornton, and Barrett walked Hunter Pence and then threw a wild pitch to allow the go-ahead run to score.

The Nationals were eliminated. Their best relievers—Tyler Clippard and Storen—never even warmed up. Their ace in the ‘pen, Stephen Strasburg, never got close to entering. Had Williams used them instead, and not lifted Zimmermann in Game 2, the Nationals might be the reigning World Series champions right now. They were certainly good enough.

But Williams’ major managerial flaw showed itself then, and it’s shown itself this season, including the last 10 days. Last year it cost the team in the postseason. This year it could keep the game’s best on-paper team before the season started from even getting there.

Lighting a fire under Williams’ seat is not a knee-jerk reaction. It should be a legitimate consideration for general manager Mike Rizzo and owner Ted Lerner before the season is a complete failure.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Joc Pederson’s Electric Rookie Start Has Now Become Dodgers Liability

The sport of baseball has three true outcomes, a concept that’s unfolded as the era of advanced metrics has gained mainstream popularity within the game and amongst its fans.

These outcomes, based on the fact that defense has zero effect on them, are the home run, the walk and the strikeout. These are the only results determined by the batter and pitcher alone, not counting for things like pitch framing or floating strike zones, of course.

In 2015, the three true outcomes found their poster boy in Joc Pederson. The Los Angeles Dodgers rookie center fielder burst into his first full season as a power-hitting strikeout machine with a keen eye and awareness of the zone. This led to plenty of home runs, even more strikeouts, a high on-base percentage, a starting spot in last month’s All-Star Game (because of injuries to other outfielders) and front-running the National League’s Rookie of the Year race.

Then July happened, and the first part of August followed. And two of the three true outcomes virtually disappeared from Pederson’s arsenal, as did nearly all of his value.

His fourth outcome became a drop from the top to the bottom of the batting order, and the fifth was a benching. The sixth, a stint back in the minors, has yet to be discussed by the Dodgers brass, but if Pederson’s trends don’t shift soon, his electric start will give way to a debilitating liability for a team with World Series aspirations.

“At some point, if you hit .220 and you don’t hit homers then there’s other things that you try to do,” manager Don Mattingly told reporters last week. “You have to make organizational decisions.

“I don’t think there’s anybody trying to make those right now. And there’s nobody thinking Joc won’t hit. We all believe in Joc still and what he’s going to be able to do. It’s going to be a little bit of a learning process for him this year too.”

The first part of that process was euphoric. Pederson had a 1.057 OPS, .461 OBP, four home runs, 17 walks and 22 strikeouts in 77 April plate appearances. In May, he hit nine homers and drew 16 more walks.

Overall, from April through June, the 23-year-old had a .911 OPS, hit 20 home runs, had a .384 OPB and a 94/55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also had a 155 wRC+, a .390 wOBA and a .282 ISO. All three of those marks put him among the game’s elite hitters and MVP candidates.

In July, his OPS was .488. He struck out 31 times and walked four. His OBP plummeted to .229. His wRC+ sank to 38, his wOBA to .211 and his ISO to .090. Him being in the lineup actually cost the Dodgers a half a win, according to FanGraphs.

Pederson also stopped hitting the ball hard in July. His percentage of hard-hit balls dropped 17 percent, and his soft contact rose 13. His line-drive rate dropped three percent, his fly-ball rate dropped seven and his ground-ball rate rose by 10 (h/t Beyond The Box Score for those comparisons).

Those numbers led to Mattingly dropping Pederson from the leadoff spot, where he hit for most of the first half, to the bottom half of the order near the end of the month. Then he benched Pederson for a couple of games two weekends ago. However, Pederson went hitless and struck out three times without a walk in his return. It was his third consecutive game of that ilk as he faded from Rookie of the Year discussions.

Pederson currently has one home run in his last 128 plate appearances after going 0-for-3 Sunday. The only power he’s shown in that time was the energizing show he put on during the Home Run Derby to finish runner-up.

“A lot of times you don’t realize that you’re [pressing],” Mattingly said of Pederson‘s benching. “You see so much more when you don’t have to try to perform that day. Young guys get caught up and their mind starts going over all kinds of stuff.

“Sometimes you can’t see the forest from in the trees. You get too close to it and you don’t see the big picture. I want him to see the big picture.”

The smaller, immediate picture is that Pederson is getting back one of the true outcomes. In his last 23 plate appearances, he has walked nine times, once intentionally, and struck out three times. He still is not showing much power, though.

Pederson does not rate as an outstanding defensive center fielder by the metrics, but the Dodgers still value him as a critical piece of their up-the-middle defense. And considering they don’t have great replacement options at that position and that it is nearly mid-August, optioning him to the minors seems like a long shot.

“You don’t do anything. Keep going,” Mattingly told reporters over the weekend. “Now is not the time to start messing with our club and what we’ve been doing all year. We’ve been a club that plays good defense up the middle.

“We’re trying to win games at this point. He’s been our center fielder all year long. We know who he is. We know what he’s going to be.”

For now, the Dodgers are surviving with Pederson being almost exactly what he wasn’t in the season’s first three months. Going forward and into the postseason, assuming their season lasts that long, their offense desperately needs Pederson to return to being the showcase player for the three true outcomes.

The Dodgers can live with the negative outcome if the other two positive ones are present. If only the negative is there, as has been the case for most of the second half, Pederson will be more of a liability than a help to the ultimate goal.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Stephen Strasburg’s Overpowering Comeback Is Game-Changer in NL East Race

The Washington Nationals needed something.

Some sort of a boost, a spark, whatever, but it had to be the kind of performance that kick-started their stalling, sputtering second half. Because as things stood going into Saturday night, Washington was a flailing club in danger of falling out of arm’s reach of the rival, first-place New York Mets.

While desperation might be a strong word, the Nationals should have felt something similar, despite what a misguided Jayson Werth said this week about the National League East being their division to lose.

Stephen Strasburg was what they needed to quell whatever discouraging recent history they created for themselves. Upon his return from a second prolonged disabled-list hiatus Saturday, the right-hander delivered what other similar recent returns by Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Werth had not.

Aside from a blemish or two, Strasburg was mostly brilliant, dazzling and energizing at home in his seven innings pitched against the Colorado Rockies, and Washington won, 6-1, behind the 27-year-old’s three hits allowed and 12 strikeouts.

It was the 17th time in 123 career starts he reached double-digit strikeouts and the sixth time he did so without issuing a walk. It was the first time since May 12 that his ERA dipped below 5.00.

He retired the last 11 batters he faced and even went 3-for-3 with the bat. The Nationals shared Strasburg’s stat line:

Strasburg’s fastball reached 97 mph at times. He located it well and used the threat of it to effectively dash in a quality curveball and the occasional slider and changeup. It was the kind of outing that reminds us why Washington took him as the first overall pick in 2009 and why the club still believes he can be one of the game’s legitimate aces.

Going into Strasburg’s return, the Nationals were 7-13 in their last 20 games. That stretch included being swept by the Mets—the reason they now trail them by 1.5 games in the NL East and are four games out of the second wild-card spot with the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants ahead of them.

Those 20 games have also seen Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth come off the DL, yet the team still has a losing record since their return.

And the vaunted pitching staff the team was supposed to have this season had a 4.19 ERA in those games as it has been anything but historically dominant over the entire summer.

That is why Strasburg, healthy and good, means so much to Washington over the final 52 games, of which he is on track to start 10.

“He’s got to be a critical piece,” former major league pitcher and current ESPN analyst Dallas Braden said on the network. “This is a team that is finding themselves going in the opposite direction than we all thought they would be at this point in the year. To get a healthy Stephen Strasburg back, we know what he can do. He’s only going to add punch to that rotation, and they’re going to need him.”

Strasburg looked like he did Saturday after his first DL trip back in June. After recovering from a trapezius strain, Strasburg made two healthy starts. He threw 12 innings, allowed two runs and struck out 15 while walking two. His average fastball velocity in those outings was 96.6 mph, according to the team’s MASN broadcast. It normally sits at 95.2 mph for the season, according to Baseball Info Solutions (h/t FanGraphs).

But in his third start back, Strasburg strained his oblique.

It is now five weeks later, but the Nationals have lost 5.5 games in the standings within that time. In the second half, the rotation has a 3.87 ERA, a pedestrian seventh in the NL. Part of the reason for that is ace Max Scherzer is no longer carrying the other four starting pitchers.

In his four second-half starts, he has a 3.38 ERA through 24 innings, and while he is averaging six innings in those outings, it is far from the 7.1 innings he averaged over his 18 first-half turns.

Doug Fister, who was arguably the team’s best pitcher down the stretch last season and into October, has a 4.60 ERA this season. And in his eight starts since returning from the DL this season, his ERA is 4.86. Strasburg’s return boots Fister to the bullpen, and that alone should help the rotation’s bottom line.

For now, Strasburg has to combine with Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Joe Ross and Gio Gonzalez to propel Washington back into playoff position.

“We’re happy to have Strasy back in the rotation,” manager Matt Williams told reporters Friday. “He’s feeling good. He’s got the ability to go out there and shut anybody down on any given day. We’ll hope for that, prepare and see if we can get them.”

Strasburg has a couple of handfuls of starts remaining to help the Nationals do so.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Breaking Down the Early Impact of MLB’s Biggest July Trades

The days leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline are some of the most anticipated of the entire Major League Baseball season, and this latest edition did not disappoint.

There were blockbusters early and right up until the deadline. Teams made them while in the thick of divisional and Wild Card races as well as on the fringe of postseason discussions.

Every one of these deals has already affected the playoff races, and some are no more than a week old. Then again, that is exactly why these teams pulled off these kinds of trades. That they are making instant impacts should not stun anyone.

Not all the trades, however, have been entirely positive, and some have been more important than most imagined.

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Slugging Prospect Randal Grichuk Is Key to St. Louis Cardinals’ Playoff Hopes

The recognition has been quiet, and the hype has been nonexistent.

But there is substance. It exists under the radar for a team that has not had many splashes this season but has modestly positioned itself as the best team in the National League.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk has played a significant role in that accomplishment, putting himself among the top candidates for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s the organization’s best offensive project since Albert Pujols, though he has never really been seen as an elite prospect despite being drafted one spot ahead of Mike Trout by the Los Angeles Angels in 2009.

Grichuk went into Wednesday hitting .291/.341/.571 with a .912 OPS, a 147 OPS+ and a 150 wRC+. He led all league rookies in Isolated Power (.279), wOBA (.385), wRC+, slugging percentage and OPS, and was third in FanGraphs WAR (2.8) despite starting the year as the Cardinals’ fourth or fifth outfielder. He also strikes out more than 30 percent of the time, far outpacing the league’s 19.6 percent non-pitcher rate.

He continued his production Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds, hitting a double that missed being a home run by centimeters as well as the game-winning homer in the 13th inning, his 13th of the season. He extended his hitting streak to eight games and had his team-high seventh game with at least two extra-base hits.

“He’s still a young guy figuring it all out,” Cardinals hitting coach John Mabry told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch during spring training. “He’s a Lamborghini. He’s got all the skills in the world. You look at his skill set and every person on this field and every person in this league would look at him and go, ‘Yeah, I want that.’ He’s got the tools. He’s also trying to manage them on the fly.”

The Angels did not have Grichuk as high as Trout on their 2009 draft board, but because they had back-to-back picks at Nos. 24 and 25, they went with Grichuk first in an attempt to tamp down Trout’s slot bonus. Trout has gone on to become the best player in the game. While that was happening, Grichuk failed to turn himself into a top-flight prospect, having never been rated in any major publication’s Top 100 list while in the minors.

That made him somewhat expendable in 2013, when the Angels traded him and Peter Bourjos to St. Louis for World Series hero David Freese and pitcher Fernando Salas. While Bourjos would provide immediate outfield help, Grichuk was still seen as a project, having just completed a disappointing season at Double-A: .306 OBP, .780 OPS.

He was a bit better the following year at Triple-A Memphis, earning playing time with the Cardinals in 2014, though not enough to sap his rookie eligibility for 2015. Entering this year’s spring training, the Cardinals had no one else close to the majors in their farm system with the raw power Grichuk possessed. So after he posted a .911 OPS in 44 Grapefruit League at-bats, the Cardinals decided to bring him along for Opening Day.

His first real chance for everyday playing time came in May after he spent time on the disabled list with a back injury. He started playing again on May 16, manning all three outfield positions and hitting .302/.339/.547 for that month.

Grichuk really made his presence felt while left fielder Matt Holliday was on the DL with a quad strain, an injury that could have devastated the lineup considering Holliday had a .417 OBP and .839 OPS at the time. But Grichuk made sure Holliday’s absence did not hurt the club as he batted .290/.342/.570 with a .912 OPS, seven doubles, four triples and five home runs in 30 games.

Things have only gotten better for Grichuk since Holliday returned—though the latter went back on the DL after aggravating the quad last week. Between July 17, when Holliday initially returned, and Wednesday’s game, Grichuk hit .339/.413/.696 with a 1.109 OPS and five homers.

Manager Mike Matheny told reporters Wednesday:

He’s got some potential. You might see some swing and misses every once and a while, but you’re also going to see what you did tonight. I think he’s going to keep honing his approach at the plate, which is going to take some of those swing and misses out of play. But we’re not going to have him shorten up. He has the ability to jump the ball out of the park and change the game.

Grichuk struck out twice Wednesday, and he might always be a high-strikeout player. In order to keep up his current success, he might have to adjust his approach, though. As of now, a big reason for his production is his .387 BABIP, which dwarfs the .304 non-pitcher league average and seems unsustainable for the long term.

However, Grichuk also has a hard-hit rate of 37 percent. The league average is 29.5 percent, according to FanGraphs. And among players with at least 100 at-bats worth of batted-ball data, Grichuk ranks seventh in all of baseball with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, via BaseballSavant.com.

So even with Grichuk’s approach flaws and good luck, he hits the ball hard enough that he could maintain this level of production for more than just a season, even after a correction to his BABIP.

Grichuk has used the first four months of this season to blossom into one of the league’s best rookies and one of St. Louis’ best hitters. And as the Cardinals push their way into the postseason over the next three months, his continued success will be counted on to keep them as a World Series contender.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


6 Predictions for the 2015 MLB Waiver-Trade Window

The days leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline are consistently some of the most exciting Major League Baseball has to offer, and this year did not disappoint.

However, just because the non-waiver period has passed does not mean we can’t get our trade fix. August is the revocable waiver period, meaning teams have until the end of the month to try to pass a player through all 29 teams, which would make him eligible to be traded anywhere. If a player is claimed, his team can call him back, making him ineligible to be traded. The player can also be traded or outright released to the claiming club, which usually means that team takes on an undesirable contract the original team is trying to shed. 

Teams will place several players on waivers, and every year we learn of big-name players being placed on the wire, typically only to be called back to the original club as if nothing ever happened. Those headlines are a given every year.

Just because the excitement is lessened and the rumors are fewer this month does not mean significant happenings won’t go down. The biggest August blockbuster trade happened three years ago when the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto from the Boston Red Sox, who desperately wanted to dump salary.

Here are some predictions on what this year might hold:

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