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The Major League Baseball Hall of Fame process is flawed.

OK, we got that out of the way. So now there is no real need to dive into why it should be tweaked or how it should be fixed—a Baseball Writers’ Association of America panel recommended expanding the number of players eligible for each ballot from 10 to 12 during the Winter Meetings earlier this month.

However, because it is such an archaic system, considering its guidelines and voters’ stubbornness, lack of in-depth knowledge and lack of overall care, the snubs are heavy.

Plus, of course, there is the conundrum and dilemma of how to handle players linked to performance-enhancing drugs. It is a major issue for at least some voters despite HOF players in previous eras also breaking the law and baseball rules.

In the here and now, it appears no more than four players will be inducted into the baseball shrine in Cooperstown, N.Y. come July. Three of them seem to be locks. Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are first-ballot guys, and honestly, it shouldn’t even be close (but maybe it will be).

Craig Biggio fell two votes short of the required 75 percent last year, making him a safe bet to make it this time around. Finally, based on an unscientific poll of BBWAA members conducted by MLB.com last July, John Smoltz has a pretty good shot of getting in, although his numbers fail to stack up against comparable starters. 

That leaves everyone else on the ballot out of the Hall of Fame. Here are the predictable snubs.

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The previous two offseasons have left us with a new, unexpected baseball term: Victim of the Qualifying Offer, which refers to a player who has spurned the offer in search of longer-term riches only to regret how he played his hand.

Doing away with Major League Baseball’s Type A-B free-agent system and implementing the one-year qualifying offers at the end of the last collective bargaining agreement made understanding free agency much simpler. Under the new rules, teams can offer their free agents a one-year contract worth the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, and if the player rejects the offer, that team receives a compensatory draft pick between the next year’s first and second rounds. Conversely, the team who signs that player loses its top unprotected pick.

Simple, right? Sure it is. Still, despite the new system being easier for the casual fan to comprehend, it has resulted in baffling outcomes for players who have either received, turned down and/or had their stock severely hindered in the free-agent market because they are attached to draft-pick compensation.

“You hate to say it, but it really messes up free agency for guys who worked hard,” Stephen Drew told CBSSports.com insider Jon Heyman last February before he eventually signed with the Boston Red Sox (but not until late May). “A lot of people don’t want to give up that first-round pick, and that’s what it boils down to. It’s unusual.”

Based on what we have witnessed the last two falls, winters and even springs, this current offseason is actually the abnormality. When Melky Cabrera signed with the Chicago White Sox last week, it officially broke the Curse of the Qualifying Offer.

This offseason had 12 players receive and reject the qualifying offer of $15.3 million—none of the 33 players extended the one-year deal over the last three offseasons has accepted the offer—and only Max Scherzer and James Shields remain unsigned. However, their availability is all about the market playing out and cost rather than draft-pick compensation.

Last season, Drew was not alone in free-agent purgatory. Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz and especially Kendrys Morales had their stocks crippled by draft-pick compensation. All of them ended up with one-year deals agreed to either late in the process or for significantly less money than they would have made by accepting the qualifying offer or both. Morales signed with the Minnesota Twins after the June amateur draft, when his compensation was voided.

This year, there figured to be at least one solid candidate to regret declining the qualifying offer had he actually done so. The Colorado Rockies offered the one-year deal to Michael Cuddyer, a shocking move considering the Rockies’ outfield logjam, that Cuddyer played in 280 games in his three seasons with Colorado and that he had severe Coors Field/road splits. Cuddyer seemed likely to accept the offer since a multiyear deal for him appeared uncertain, plus if he rejected the qualifying offer, he would have been the safe bet to see his free agency extend well beyond the new year.

But then the New York Mets came calling with a stunning two-year, $21 million contract. Knowing what had happened to other non-top-tier free agents before him, Cuddyer was set to accept the Rockies’ offer had the Mets deal not come together. 

Michael Cuddyer said he would have accepted qualifying offer from #Rockies if #Mets deal had not come together by Monday deadline.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) November 11, 2014

Cuddyer, 36 next season, was the offseason’s first significant signing, and it was a sign of things to come in an offense-starved market. Virtually any hitter with a pulse became coveted, including those tied to a draft pick.

Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were the first dominoes to tumble after Cuddyer, although they were never candidates to be QO victims. Russell Martin followed, but due to his defensive and pitch-framing attributes, he was also never likely to see his free agency extend into the late winter or early spring.

Cruz, who rejected last year’s offer and ended up almost inexplicably waiting until late February to sign a one-year, $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles, signed a four-year, $57 million deal with the Seattle Mariners before the winter meetings. This year, neither draft-pick compensation nor a Biogenesis suspension was a factor, and no one expected it to be.

Aside from Cuddyer, closer David Robertson was maybe the next likeliest to be a victim of the qualifying offer. Before Robertson, Rafael Soriano was the only other reliever to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he ended up waiting until mid-January to get a deal in 2013. But being the lone experienced closer on the open market got Robertson a four-year deal from the White Sox at the winter meetings.

That signing left 30-something pitchers Santana, a victim last year, and Francisco Liriano as the only candidates for QO victimization.

“I never thought it would happen this way. I thought it would be easier,” Santana told USA Today Sports’ Jorge L. Ortiz last spring about being a QO victim. Fortunately, neither he nor Liriano would endure the same fate this offseason.

Both pitchers signed right after the winter meetings, helped by the fact that the market’s alternatives—Scherzer and Lester—were seeking nine-figure contracts. And just like that, no one was left to regret his decision of rejecting the qualifying offer.

The system is still too new to know if it is cyclical, but it seems reasonable to believe free agents will become victims based on market needs. This year has clearly been a buyer’s market, and even fringe-level free agents are benefiting, although current and expected rich TV deals could have something to do with this going forward.

Fair or unfair, the qualifying-offer system is in play for at least the next two offseasons before the collective bargaining agreement can be reworked. While there were no victims of the system this time around, odds tell us we will see the draft-pick compensation scare away suitors and leave players waiting through spring training for teams in the near future.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Plenty involved, plenty underwhelming.

That has been the synopsis of the San Francisco Giants’ post-World Series offseason to this point. The team has been heavy in the rumor mill and has handed out lucrative offers to the likes of Pablo Sandoval and Jon Lester only to see them rejected.

The failed attempts have left the franchise without a blockbuster acquisition as Christmas approaches while three other teams in their division—the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks—have made significant moves to make themselves better now and in the future, and none seem to be content with where they stand.

The Giants responded by throwing a couple of pebbles into the Pacific Ocean on Friday afternoon, trading for 32-year-old third baseman Casey McGehee, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, to replace the departed Sandoval and re-signing starter Jake Peavy. They are small moves and do not necessarily make the Giants a better team or the favorite to win the National League West.

As Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles wrote about the trade:

“…McGehee will probably not hit poorly enough to get released.”

The Peavy signing is logical. He performed well once moving to the National League last year after a disastrous first 20 starts with the Boston Red Sox. Peavy ended the regular season with a 2.17 ERA with the Giants, and considering their needs in the rotation, he is a nice fit at two years and $24 million. Even if he will be 34 in May.

McGehee was the NL’s Comeback Player of the Year after hitting .287/.355/.357 with a .712 OPS. He hit 29 doubles but only four home runs, while hitting into a league-leading 31 double plays. Overall, he was an average hitter (99 OPS-plus) with slightly below-average defense at third base a year after playing in Japan.

That makes McGehee a downgrade for the Giants. When compared to Sandoval, McGehee is a weaker defender with less power and a higher propensity to strike out but a higher on-base percentage.

McGehee had breakout seasons in 2009 and 2010 with the Milwaukee Brewers, hitting 39 home runs and driving in 170 to go with an .823 OPS.

At that time, he was a wonderful complement to Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. In his two major league seasons after that, McGehee was so bad offensively that the New York Yankees eventually sent him to Class A for a short time before he made his way to Japan for the 2013 season.

What can be scary is that so much of McGehee’s offensive value is tied to his batting average, which was 18th-best in the league. As Brisbee also notes, any regression in that category, added to his inabilities to hit the ball out of the park and stay out of double plays, significantly hinders his overall value.

ZiPS projects Giants fans won’t spend a ton of time hating this deal, though (via ESPN’s Dan Szymborski):

McGehee ZiPS in SF – 258/322/357, 96 OPS+, 1.7 WAR. It’s a suitable fill-in, not some kind of major disaster.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 19, 2014

There is another side to this McGehee trade that could make it a fantastic move by the time April rolls around. He is projected to earn about $3.5 million next season, per Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, which is somewhere around $15.5 million less than what the Giants would have paid Sandoval in 2015 had he re-upped. That leaves the door wide open for the Giants to add a front-line starting pitcher.

With questions surrounding Matt Cain after his elbow surgery, Jake Peavy’s effectiveness at age 34 and how Madison Bumgarner will bounce back from pitching 270 innings last season—his highest total ever by more than 45 innings—the Giants could certainly stand to keep playing in the free-agent market.

If we assume the Giants are not willing to go beyond the $150 million or so they offered Lester, that fact takes them out of play for Max Scherzer but leaves them major players for James Shields.

While older and with more innings on his arm than Scherzer or Lester, Shields is not likely to cost nearly as much as either and is an effective innings-eater. Shields could also benefit from the National League lineups and the big, pitcher-friendly NL West ballparks, although they aren’t much different than the ones in the American League Central.

Since the Giants don’t have the personnel resources to make a trade for guys such as Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto, Shields makes the most sense. Plus, he also is affordable enough that the Giants can still find a left fielder, although that well is drying up quickly.

The spare cash could also land the Giants Cuban pitching prospect Yoan Lopez. Lopez is 21 with a high-90s fastball and plenty of upside. The team’s interest makes sense since the Giants were also in on Cuban defectors Jose Abreu, Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas.

Whatever the Giants decide to do, they have options that are not necessarily limited by a lack of funds. The money is there, and this McGehee trade is partly the reason. If the journeyman third baseman can help the club add a big-ticket pitcher, this trade will be a win.

If the Giants cannot land another impact starting pitcher, the McGehee trade will not only be a downgrade at third base, it could also anger a fanbase that has sold out AT&T Park for the last four years.

Here’s to Giants fans hoping general manager Brian Sabean hasn’t finished maneuvering.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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This is not a fresh conversation. It is had almost yearly around this time on the calendar.

It is the tale of super agent Scott Boras and some client and their reading of the free-agent market. Is the duo overestimating the player’s worth? Will the market eventually cave and pay the asking price? How late in the offseason might we find out?

This winter is just another edition of the debate, with Boras toting around ace Max Scherzer as his prized client, a $200 million price tag dangling from his ear. As of now, as we have come to expect with the high-priced Boras clients, there are no potential buyers and no firming up of the options.

So are Boras and Scherzer overplaying their hand? They certainly do not believe so, as Boras eluded to CBSSports.com Insider Jon Heyman last month:

Premium free agents are rarely talked about at the GM [general manager] meetings. This is an owners’ decision. Every GM wants him. There’s always a place for him on every team. The issue is not whether the player is wanted. The issue is whether the owner will make the commitment to try to win the World Series.

That commitment is healthy. Scherzer already turned down a six-year, $144 million contract extension offer from the Detroit Tigers earlier this year, and several reports have Scherzer seeking well beyond that monetary figure. That was confirmed last week at the MLB winter meetings.

Max Scherzer is seeking a guarantee of more than $200 million, which only one pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) has achieved in MLB history.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 10, 2014

That $200 million asking price is not surprising considering the agent, but only one other pitcher in the sport has achieved that kind of money—Clayton Kershaw. For as good as Scherzer is, he is not in the statistical class of Kershaw, and there is about a four-year age difference between the two, with the Los Angeles Dodgers ace winning that bout, also.

Scherzer is considered to be better than Jon Lester, who agreed to a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs at the winter meetings. But is he really $50 million better? Aside from Boras, it is difficult to find anyone who thinks Scherzer is worth that much more, so it seems Lester’s deal could hurt Scherzer‘s value.

Then again, all it takes is that “One Dumb Owner” to accept the terms. Longtime New York Daily News columnist Bill Madden set forth that phrase years ago in reference to Boras always finding his mark, as he has done with guys like Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder.

In Fielder’s case after the 2011 season, it appeared Boras overvalued his client. But when Victor Martinez blew up his knee training that winter, Detroit Tigers owner Mike Ilitch pounced on Fielder and gave him $214 million over nine years. If not for that injury to one of the game’s premier hitters, Fielder’s situation might have played out much differently.

Boras escaped embarrassment there, but we have seen his clients in the past overplay their hands and end up late in the offseason without a deal. That has forced some to settle for less than what Boras promised he could get or to be forced into one-year “pillow deals.”

Michael Bourn is the most recent example. He wanted seven years and around $80 million—or at least Boras did—when he hit free agency after the 2012 season, but Boras could only land him $48 million over four years with the Cleveland Indians. That deal wasn’t reached until days before players reported to spring training.

No one will be surprised if Scherzer‘s journey reaches February, especially because teams that can afford Scherzer are likely to exhaust every other avenue before even engaging Boras about his 30-year-old client.

The free-agent market still features James Shields, a pitcher who could command half the years and maybe less than half of the salary Scherzer is seeking. Shields is not an ace, but he is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm that becomes far more attractive when his demands are set next to Scherzer‘s. Once Shields does sign, Scherzer‘s suitors will become a bit clearer.

The trade market offers plenty of options, but despite being cheaper in terms of money, they will cost plenty in personnel. Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto are all front-line pitchers available in trades, but their teams will be asking for plenty in return. Then again, signing Scherzer will cost a draft pick because he turned down Detroit’s qualifying offer.

Logical theories have Scherzer‘s options limited to three teams for now: the Tigers, Washington Nationals and New York Yankees. The Tigers because of Boras‘ relationship with Ilitch despite GM Dave Dombrowski saying they aren’t pursuing Scherzer, the Nationals because they could trade Zimmermann for a sweet haul before adding Scherzer‘s money and the Yankees because it’s hard to believe them when GM Brian Cashman says Scherzer is “on a higher [financial] level than we’d like to play in right now.”

All three of those teams are in win-now modes, with those windows potentially closing as their current rosters stand. So believing Madden’s one owner comes from one of those clubs is not an absurd theory.

It is also not absurd to think that, considering the markets for pitching, Boras is overvaluing Scherzer. We have seen him do it before, and we have seen him do it with an A-1 client (Fielder) only to be bailed out by an unexpected circumstance.

It is hard to bet against Boras because we have seen him nab ridiculous amounts of money for players that 29 other owners did not see worth the bounty. And if a team like the Nationals or even the Dodgers make a blockbuster trade involving one of their pitchers, they suddenly become Boras‘ obvious target.

For now, it is too early to say Boras and Scherzer are overplaying their hand. This is still typical in Boras‘ world of negotiating. However, if in a month from now we are still wondering where Scherzer will pitch, the conversation can be rehashed with a different outcome.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Not every move is pulled off, not every need filled at the MLB Winter Meetings.

For as much hype as the gathering produces, and rightfully so this year, there are teams that go in with plenty of expectations but simply leave with the same roster with which they arrived. It leaves fans disappointed that their guys were not part of the hoopla, but it does not mean said team is done maneuvering.

The Seattle Mariners are such a team.

“I don’t feel hurried or rushed here,” general manager Jack Zduriencik told Bob Dutton of the Tacoma New Tribune on Thursday before leaving the meetings. “You shouldn’t view this as ‘If you don’t come away with your club in place on Dec. 12, wow, it’s not going to work.’ That isn’t the case.”

Not when there is now serious interest in outfielder Melky Cabrera, a guy who makes a whole lot of sense for the Mariners. The team needs a right-handed hitter, preferably one who can play right field. Cabrera, a switch-hitter, can productively fulfill both desires. Over his last four seasons, Cabrera has hit .309/.351/.458 with a .809 OPS and 124 OPS-plus. His only down season came in an injury-plagued 2013 with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Cabrera is said to be asking for a five-year deal. A report from ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas has the Mariners offering three. Finally, it appears that if the Mariners really want to close the deal, they could offer a fourth year to get it done, according to Rojas and other reports.

Speculation has the Mariners somewhere in the $40-42 million range on a three-year deal, which could mean a higher average annual value than the $60 million for five years that Cabrera reportedly wants. So it would make sense for Cabrera to jump at a four-year contract at around $50 million.

There is some risk in waiting this thing out, though. As the December days drip off, teams with similar needs as Seattle can get desperate and hop into the fray cannonball-style. At least two other teams—the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles—need an outfield bat and are eyeing Cabrera to fill the void. While neither team is willing to meet the years/price right this instant, passing time and no better options could change minds.

royals still hoping for melky to fill OF hole. if not, aoki, rasmus, rios on radar.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2014

If Mariners aren’t going 4 yrs on Melky Cabrera, the #Orioles would consider him on a 2-3 year deal, according to source. Ain’t going 4 tho.

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) December 12, 2014

While those clubs are currently hesitant on Cabrera’s wants, he does make as much sense for them as he does for the Mariners. The Royals are looking for a right fielder and had an unimpressive offense last season, and they are in danger of being a worse team than they were last season when they made it to the World Series. The Orioles lost some pop when Nelson Cruz went to Seattle and Nick Markakis jetted for Atlanta and have a hole in their outfield.

The Royals have financial constraints, but the Orioles can spend and have some tradable pieces, as do the Mariners. That is why both teams were linked to former Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Braves left fielder Justin Upton.

It made some sense for the Mariners to be interested in Kemp, and maybe they should have stayed in talks with the Dodgers. After all, a package centered around catcher Yasmani Grandal is much less of a return for Kemp than anyone expected.

Upton makes less sense since the Braves are said to be asking for a similar bounty as the Dodgers asked Seattle for Kemp. Plus, the M’s would be guaranteed only one year of Upton, who is most likely going to test free agency after the 2015 season.

If the Mariners are looking for a guy who can do more than simply track a fly ball, then Cabrera is the best option on the market. He would also fit nicely into their clubhouse being friends with Robinson Cano and Cruz, and Cano has already bent his ear about heading up to the Pacific Northwest to join a team on the rise.

Cano said he’s spoken briefly to Melky Cabrera about signing with the Mariners. And told him how much he and Cruz could help the team

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) December 12, 2014

Seeing as how the Mariners have already gone in on Felix Hernandez, Cano and Kyle Seager, plus giving 34-year-old designated hitter Cruz $57 million over four years, going to a fourth year for the 31-year-old Cabrera is not a stretch. His bat has also played in a cavernous ballpark in the past when he hit .346/.390/.516 with a .906 OPS for the San Francisco Giants in 2012—yes, he was popped for a positive PED test, but he was still quite productive the year before and last season as well. Playing in Safeco Field would not be a deterrent for Cabrera.

It is understandable that the Mariners have slow-played this negotiation to this point. Losing Cabrera has not been an imminent danger, and balking at a fifth year is wise.

But the clock is ticking and suitors are lurking, albeit on the fringes. The Mariners are clearly serious about contending in the American League West next season, and it looks like they have the pieces to do so. Jumping a little farther to secure Cabrera should be their play, and it should come soon.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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This has to stop.

Hearts are broken, and that is certainly understandable. But the screaming has to stop. Now.

Billy Beane is not a villain. He is not a moron. He is not attempting to piss off anyone who has ever cheered for the Oakland Athletics.

And most importantly, he is not trying to lose. To think that is his goal is not only ridiculous but also completely ignorant.

Beane, general manager of the Oakland A’s, has traded four All-Star players in the last five months. The Yoenis Cespedes trade last summer was to make the A’s better immediately, as Beane believed his club was good enough then to win a World Series with an ace pitcher. After a postseason exit, Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija and Brandon Moss were dealt to make Oakland better in the long run.

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan broke the Moss deal on Monday, and the Samardzija trade was announced by the A’s just 24 hours later.

But you do have to hand it to Billy Beane for not being scared. Few other clubs would have cut their losses this quick after failed try.

— Phil Rogers (@philgrogers) December 9, 2014

These trades have people—many of them intelligent human beings and some of them Oakland players—baffled and/or livid. But the moves show that Beane is looking out for the team’s future.

“If you wait too long, you cost yourself a number of years,” Beane told the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Susan Slusser.

Beane was referring to years of being a competitive team and his failure to retool after the team went to the American League Championship Series in 2006. After that playoff run, the A’s missed the postseason the next five seasons.

He learned from that mistake. After the 2007 season, he traded 27-year-old Nick Swisher and acquired Gio Gonzalez. In 2008, he traded 26-year-old Rich Harden, who had a 2.34 ERA at the time. That trade brought in Donaldson. Then, after the 2011 season, Beane moved Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey, all of whom were All-Stars, and he was pounded by a media contingent that then predicted the A’s would finish last in 2012.

The A’s went on to win the division the following two seasons and have made the postseason in the three years since that trade.

“Billy is about as good as it gets as far as being able to handle that balance, keeping us competitive currently and looking down the road for the future,” A’s manager Bob Melvin told Slusser.

Melvin gets it. These latest moves are proactive. They aren’t a way to simply dump salary and pocket the savings. This is replacing the carpet before anyone realizes it needs to be replaced—a metaphor owner Lew Wolff likes to use when describing Beane’s methods of operation.

People can gripe about the young players the A’s got in return for Donaldson, Moss and Samardzija if they want. Those debates happen in most trades. But also understand that Oakland still thinks it can compete in 2015. The pitching is still good, even without Lester and Samardzija.

Beane is not done working here. He is not tanking for 2015. He is attempting to compete in a pretty good division with different personnel.

“We still have an awesome pitching staff,” All-Star closer Sean Doolittle said, per Slusser. “And it’s still early. Who knows what other moves we make?

“It’s such a cop-out [to say we are rebuilding]. Look at 2012.”

The A’s won 88 games last year, and Donaldson was one of the best players in the league. But the team wasn’t good enough to get beyond the Wild Card Game, and Donaldson is 29 years old—his value will never be higher than it was when Beane traded him.

Remember, this is an era of better PED testing. We aren’t going to see hitters get better after 30. We also weren’t going to see the A’s drastically improve by standing pat with a team that lost the division to the Los Angeles Angels by 10 games last season.

“They weren’t necessarily going to fall apart tomorrow, but they weren’t going to get any better,” Athletics Nation’s Alex Hall said on The Phil Naessens Show. “Billy Beane wants to be getting better. He doesn’t want to be getting worse.

“This was the definition of selling high.”

And that is how the A’s compete on a relatively consistent basis despite having a payroll that hasn’t ranked higher than 26th in the last three seasons and has an average ranking of 24th out of 30 teams in the last 10.

This is how the A’s survive, and it’s worked time and time again for Beane. He has earned the benefit of the doubt because his track record for keeping his roster competitive with limited resources is stellar. If he had money to work with, he would not have to do these kinds of things. But he doesn’t, so he does. If by now people cannot understand why he works this way and why it is necessary, then they may never get it.

Beane is a competent baseball executive and understands his situation better than anyone else and how to manage it. He is not done making deals. Oakland’s offseason is nowhere near finished.

So before saying Beane is tanking for 2015, let’s actually see something close to a finished product.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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And we’re off.

The trade market for starting pitchers has already started establishing itself at the MLB winter meetings with the Oakland A’s continuing their busy offseason by trading Jeff Samardzija to the Chicago White Sox, a move reported by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Whether more moves come during the meetings or later, this is likely just the kicking off of big-name starters being traded over the next two months. 

Two arms less likely to be moved are also two of the best and most intriguing. Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke and Detroit Tigers lefty David Price have gotten the rumor mill churning because both could potentially be going into contract years. And any deal for them would be a major rotation upgrade for whatever team landed either pitcher.

Andrew Friedman has spoken with Zack Greinke but not about Greinke’s opt-out after 2015. Friedman willing to let year play out

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) December 9, 2014

About trades, Dombrowski said he doesn’t anticipate the team trading a starting pitcher for a corner outfielder.

— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) December 5, 2014

Again, neither pitcher is anything close to a safe bet to be traded. The Dodgers are about winning a World Series, and they know Greinke is a major reason for those expectations. The Tigers are already losing out on Max Scherzer and need Price to be at the top of their rotation if they are going to fend off the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox in their division.

Still, both teams would be willing to listen to offers. But with everything considered—current contract situations, cost in trade, age, etc.—which front-line pitcher would be the better target?

There are two reasons the Dodgers might consider trading Greinke, an idea first brought on by the team’s quest for free-agent pitcher Jon Lester and told to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.

The first is that Greinke has a clause in his six-year, $147 million contract that allows him to opt out and become a free agent at the end of next season, essentially making 2015 a contract year. Greinke will make $23 million next year and will be owed $71 million in the final three. If Greinke pitches as he has the last two seasons—a 2.68 ERA over 60 starts—he can likely get more than a three-year, $71 million deal as a 32-year-old ace on the open market.

The second reason is that the Dodgers are still raking over the free-agent market to fill out their rotation, and they have already made a play for Lester. Even if they don’t land him, Scherzer and James Shields would be options. If they get Lester or Scherzer and Greinke does not opt out after next season, the team will have committed more than $400 million to Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Lester or Scherzer.

“I think we definitely want to figure out how to add at least one more arm from the outside, whether that be via trade or free agency,” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told reporters at the winter meetings Monday (via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.)

If the Dodgers do entertain trade offers for Greinke after signing Lester or Scherzer—they likely would not want to trade Greinke if they sign Shields—the cost will be, and should be, astronomical for the buying team. Greinke would be a legitimate ace, and if he does not choose to opt out, he would cost less than market value at that point.

The obvious risk for the buying team is Greinke opting out. A trade for him would most likely have to come with an assurance that Greinke would play out his current contract. If the buying team gets that, the Dodgers would be justified in asking for the other organization’s top young talent.

Price wins this debate when it comes to immediate cost and age. He will turn 30 in August and will cost the Tigers, or another team, between $18-19 million. 

Price has not been as productive as Greinke the last two seasons, but he has proven to be durable and is still a top-of-the-rotation arm. He led the American League in innings pitched, strikeouts and starts in 2014.

The Tigers are already losing a huge piece of their rotation in Scherzer, so they clearly don’t want to lose another in Price. That is why teams asking about his availability are likely to be handed a huge price tag, especially since the Tigers’ farm system is among the worst in baseball.

So far, that hasn’t scared teams from at least asking.

Sources: #Tigers drawing strong interest in Price, Porcello. Both entering FA years, as are Zimmermann, Samardzija, etc. All still in play.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2014

As of the middle of October, the Tigers had not discussed a contract extension with Price, but it is assumed they will at some point before next season. If the club gets the indication that Price will definitely test free agency, a trade becomes more likely. But Price could elect to stick it out in Detroit since the free-agent market for starters next season could be ripe with the likes of Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto among others.

Based on impact, Greinke is a better play on the trade market. He is also slightly less of a risk since Price is in a definite contract year and Greinke has the choice to play out his current deal, which would give a team four years of his services. Greinke has also pitched in the American League, the better offensive league, so that would not be a concern for an AL club looking to acquire him.

Both teams will probably hang onto each pitcher, but that knowledge won’t stop teams from peppering the Dodgers and Tigers with inquiries at these winter meetings.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The New York Yankees landed one of the better free agents in the pond Friday. The problem is he does not make them much better.

According to the YES Network’s Jack Curry, they caught reliever Andrew Miller with a four-year, $36 million contract to likely be their setup man in front of Dellin Betances, who will be a closer for the first time in his career. Miller’s signing probably takes the Yankees out of the game for their former closer, David Robertson, since he is looking for a similar contract.

While Miller is a coveted, valuable addition, this move has to be the first big move the Yankees make in an attempt to climb their way back to the top of the American League East. As it stands, Miller is not enough.

This is a signing that pays off more in the postseason than the regular season. Yankees aren’t that much better over 162 with Miller.

— Ronit Shah (@Rontrarian) December 5, 2014

Miller can be a piece to a seriously dominant bullpen, but that is only if the Yankees can find a third piece equally as effective as Miller and Betances. Without re-signing Robertson to return as their closer, a bullpen in the design of the Kansas City Royals does not exist. And dedicating more financial flexibility to re-signing Robertson would not make a whole lot of sense.

The Yankees figured out their shortstop situation earlier on Friday when they announced a trade for Didi Gregorius, but he is not much with the bat. Again, this move, even with Miller in the mix now, does not put the Yankees at the top of their division.

The Boston Red Sox have already signed Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez and are expected to land a pitcher via free agency or through a trade. The Toronto Blue Jays have added Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders.

The Baltimore Orioles, while losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, won the division last season by 12 games over the Yankees and are in the market to get better aside from having Manny Machado and Matt Wieters healthy to start 2015.

Clearly the teams around the Yankees are improving, but by adding a non-hitting shortstop and a reliever who basically only fills the spot vacated by Robertson, the Bronx Bombers are running in quick sand.

For now.

“Toronto and Boston have made some big moves,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told Ari Kramer of Newsday on Friday. “The winter’s a long winter, so even if I felt one thing today, doesn’t mean it’s the same thing tomorrow. I think we legitimately have to walk through and consider all avenues.”

The success of the Royals last season maybe has the Yankees thinking that a dominant back end of the bullpen can carry them to a division title. The difference is the Royals had a superb defense and a rotation that was top five in the league. The Yankees had neither of those things.

Going into this postseason, Cashman had marching orders to spend moderately to improve the team, but the way the rest of the division has shifted, those orders have to change. Last year the Yankees spent $471 million on new contracts and missed the playoffs for a second consecutive autumn. The spending obviously won’t reach that bar, but it has to come.

The Yankees do not have the assets to trade to improve their rotation or overall defense, although Gregorius helps at shortstop. That means it is time for Cashman to go shopping, aggressively and with the checkbook wide open.

Might as well say it: Signing Andrew Miller for less than expected should keep the Max Scherzer-to-the-Yankees speculation going.

— Zachary D. Rymer (@zachrymer) December 5, 2014

“There are certain things that could impact us and we can change our course of action for something we weren’t necessarily pursuing earlier,” Cashman said Friday, according to Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com. “I’m not trying to chase you guys into some big story, I just think we are open to evaluating the market as it evolves and how our efforts evolve as well.”

Those efforts are going to have to evolve into signing Max Scherzer, the best pitcher on the open market. Unfortunately, attempting that goes against the Yankees’ early-offseason hopes to not add a huge-money deal to their payroll.

And unfortunately, talks for Scherzer could jump off at around $200 million, and the Yankees have already been burned by a long-term, big-money contract for an ace when they redid CC Sabathia’s deal in 2011.

Still, that is the road the Yankees are going to have to travel. The rest of their division is making major moves, and doing nothing to counter them puts them at risk of being left in the dust.

Acquiring Andrew Miller is a good signing, especially for an average annual value of $9 million. Gregorius improves the infield defense. Cashman has started his offseason, no doubt.

But this cannot be anywhere near the end. The Yankees need a bigger move, and Scherzer seems the likeliest one.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Prizes are only as valuable as the people who covet them.

That is why the first month-plus of Major League Baseball’s offseason has been a slugfest for those who slug. Like wild and crazy Black Friday shoppers looking for the season’s hottest toy in a snug department-store aisle, baseball executives are doing all they can to lure the winter’s best bats.

The last three weeks have seen teams overpay for aging hitters, some of which can’t play the field, while the market for pitchers has been slow-played as seemingly everyone waits for ace Jon Lester to make a decision. But even for the few teams who miss on Lester, plenty of pitching options await on the free-agent and trade markets.

Again, a prize is more valuable when it’s scarce.

While Lester and other pitchers might have more action surrounding their names by the time the MLB Winter Meetings conclude—they start Sunday and end Thursday—the prize of the event will be an elite hitter. And since many of those have been taken off the board, Matt Kemp, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ new cleanup hitter, is left as the market’s top target.

The best hitters on the free-agent market are gone: Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Yasmany Tomas, Torii Hunter, Russell Martin, Adam LaRoche and Nick Markakis. All of those guys, some of whom are considered coveted hitters only due to the game’s current offensive state, are off the board, leaving almost no impact bats remaining on the open market.

Teams still looking for significant offensive additions now have to turn to the trade market. While a guy like Justin Upton is available for an expensive return, he has just one year remaining before he is likely to tango with his first winter of free agency in 2015. The same can be said for Boston’s Yoenis Cespedes, now part of an outfield glut similar to the one in Los Angeles that makes Kemp available.

The Dodgers know they hold the prized option, and that is why they are holding firm on their asking price for Kemp, an MVP-caliber slugger when healthy.

Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi told Eric Stephen of True Blue LA last week:

It’s something we’re continuing to explore. If you look at the landscape of baseball right now, one of the things that is really scarce is offense right now, and we’re fortunate enough to have a surplus of really good offensive outfielders. Obviously there is going to be some demand and some interest in those guys, and we’re going to sort through those as they come through.

Zaidi’s comment was referring to not only Kemp, but also Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. However, he was pretty much talking about only Kemp in the sense that there is virtually no market for Crawford or Ethier. Crawford is still a decent top-of-the-order hitter, but with three years and $62.25 million left on his contract, he’s virtually unmovable. Ethier has three years and $56 million remaining and was an afterthought last year after being relegated to a left-handed bat off the bench, making his market nonexistent.

That leaves Kemp as the team’s one attractive trade asset. He is owed $107 million over the next five seasons. Last year he hit .287/.346/.506 with a .852 OPS, 25 home runs and 89 RBIs. The last time he was healthy for a full season—2011—he was arguably the game’s best all-around player. And now, he finally seems completely healthy and ready to shine again.

Given his healthy production and position (likely right field), Kemp seems a better value than Sandoval, Ramirez and Cruz. Given his age—he will pay virtually all next season at age 30—he is a better bet than Martinez.

Only a few teams have been talked about in a Kemp deal. The Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles have at least had a talk with the Dodgers, but all have been turned off by the asking price. And if one of those teams, or another, wants the Dodgers to pick up a decent chunk of Kemp’s salary, the package of prospects might have to grow.

The Orioles are said to have scoffed at the Dodgers’ asking for one of Baltimore’s top young pitchers—Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy. Talks were said to have “not materialized into anything significant,” according to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun. However, the Orioles have now lost Cruz and Markakis since then, so talks could start again.

Baltimore is the defending American League East champion, but given what it has lost in the lineup and what the Red Sox and Blue Jays have done to bulk up, the Orioles might not be able to afford not replacing Cruz and Markakis with a quality slugger.

Another possibility by the time the Winter Meetings start, or end, is that the Dodgers land Lester with a last-minute push. If that happens, the team could be looking to trim payroll and lower its price on Kemp. Then a team might be willing to pay more of Kemp’s salary in return for sending back a lesser package of young players.

However, signing Lester would put the Dodgers in even more of a win-now situation than they are already in. And with Ramirez fleeing to Boston, the Dodgers might really need Kemp’s bat, which would explain why they are currently so staunch about the return and hesitant to pull the trigger for anything less. They are perfectly fine with keeping their No. 4 hitter, who was one of only four NL players to slug .500.

Kemp is the only hitter available now who can significantly affect a team’s lineup for more than one season. The Dodgers know this. So does everyone else. That is why he comes at a steep price.

At the Winter Meetings next week the Dodgers will find out just how much shoppers are willing to spend for their prized slugger.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The American League East is forcing the New York Yankees’ hand. 

The Boston Red Sox are making another play to go from worst to first in the division, signing two of the more coveted hitters on the free-agent market in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez while trying to lure ace pitcher Jon Lester back to the city. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up the best catcher on the market in Russell Martin, just traded for one of the league’s top third basemen in Josh Donaldson and still could re-sign Melky Cabrera, giving them a deep, potent lineup for 2015.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles are still the defending division champions and aren’t expected to relinquish the title meekly.

That leaves the Yankees, who finished 12 games behind the Orioles last season, vulnerable to missing the playoffs for a third straight season. Keeping up with the rest of the division could require the Yankees to once again dig deep into their pockets and shell out money. They swung and missed with that approach last year, having spent $471 million on free agents only to again miss out on October baseball.

However, do not expect the Yankees to run wild in the same fashion this winter. More than likely, the team is going to focus on specific needs—shortstop, the bullpen, third base, starting pitching—and try to keep spending at a moderate level.

Then again, that could change as it did a year ago.

“Don’t be surprised if their plan changes a month from now,” one executive told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. “It’s happened before.”

As of now, the hope for the Yankees is the money they dished out last year actually pays off in a playoff appearance next fall, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested:

Column http://t.co/WXzl7uOrfc Most important fr agt pacts #Yankees sign for 2015 season were ones already signed last offseason

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 25, 2014

While the Yankees have been linked to expensive free agents this offseason, none of that means much until the checks are signed. That includes a rumor that they had made an offer Saturday to ace Max Scherzer, via Dan Pfeiffer of the MLBlogs Network. 

That did not seem to make much sense given the team’s spending goals this winter, but the Yankees also put payroll limitations on themselves last year only to break them. YES Network’s Jack Curry eventually shared news that the Yankees were still sticking to their current plan of not going after a free-agent ace like Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields: 

Yankees haven’t offered Max Scherzer a 6-year deal. That report is inaccurate.

— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) November 29, 2014

Owner Hal Steinbrenner already thinks the payroll is at its limit, according to Sherman. Spending nine figures on a pitcher, or anyone else, would only further hamper the Yankees, making them inflexible with several long-term, expensive contracts for players on the wrong side of 30.

If the spending spree last offseason did not fix the Yankees’ troubles, it’s safe to assume throwing more money at the problem won’t fix it this time around either. The team already has close to $170 million committed to next season’s payroll, and that does not include arbitration raises or what it will take to sign a shortstop and possibly re-sign reliever David Robertson, starter Brandon McCarthy and third baseman Chase Headley.

Bidding wars for Robertson and even Headley could get too rich for the Yankees. Robertson reportedly already has a three-year offer on the table, and he might be seeking a fourth, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That would likely push the Yankees out of play for him. As for Headley, seeing Sandoval get $95 million from Boston means his price is going up, and the San Francisco Giants are likely to pursue him, further driving up the cost for the Yankees.

Because the Yankees have a thin farm system, competitively spending to land guys like Robertson, Headley or even one of the free-agent aces like Scherzer is still a possibility.

“It will be high, I can tell you that,” general manager Brian Cashman said of the team’s payroll next year, according to Feinsand. “It will be impressive. I’m just hopeful to have a roster that’s as impressive”

That does not necessarily mean the team will go on a spending spree. It simply means the payroll is already high and can’t help but to go up by Opening Day. The underlying message here, especially with that last comment, is Cashman knows the current payroll obligations are not going to be enough to get the Yankees back in to the postseason, especially when taking into account the spending within the division already in this offseason.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays have clearly put themselves in win-now mode because of their spending for players nearing 30 or already beyond that age. The Yankees are trying not to be reactionary as they have in the past, but seeing a couple of rivals surpass them in the division’s hierarchy might be too much to handle.

The Yankees don’t want to spend wildly for a second consecutive winter, and that would probably be wise. However, the Steinbrenner family has always valued winning above virtually all else.

Seeing the rest of the division rise could very well mean the Yankees dip back into the piggy bank to buy talent within the next two months.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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