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Keys That Will Decide Rangers vs. Blue Jays, Astros vs. Royals ALDS Game 5s

The do-or-die, win-or-go-home sporting event is the pinnacle of athletic drama.

It creates undeniable excitement before kickoff, tipoff, the puck drop and first pitch. Pins, needles, sweaty palms and butterflies are all in play when one game defines an entire season.

On Wednesday, Major League Baseball gives us two such contests.

Both American League Division Series have improbable Game 5s to decide who meets in the Championship Series—fates that seemed entirely unlikely at certain points during both series. Yet, here we are with the slates wiped clean and the brink of elimination tangible for all four teams.

The Texas Rangers go back to Toronto to face the Blue Jays, a team they beat twice there to start this series, but then lost to at home, failing to close it out. Later, the Houston Astros, who at one point in the seventh inning of Game 4 in their own park had a 98.4 percent win probability, according to FanGraphs, will try to beat the Kansas City Royals and expunge their missed opportunity.

There are distinct keys for each team’s victory. While they might not ensure a trip to the ALCS, they certainly would go a long way in helping.

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Jason Heyward Must Star for Cardinals’ World Series Hopes, His Own Mega-Contract

Through a season full of injuries and, at times, uncertainty, Jason Heyward was a constant.

Playing in his first season with a new team loaded with World Series expectations, coming off a relatively down year and a summer and fall away from his first foray into free agency, Heyward became one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ most dependable and best players. He starred for the club with the bat, was a defensive marvel in right field and ended up as one of the game’s best baserunners.

The Cardinals won 100 games this season with absolutely outstanding pitching and possibly the best defense in the majors. Their offense was just so-so, but that made Heyward’s presence in the lineup all the more crucial.

If the Cardinals capture another National League pennant this month, it will be done with their pitching. However, considering the opposing pitching the team will face in a loaded side of the bracket, Heyward will play a vital role in the team’s postseason success, and that will go a long way in determining his value on the open market this winter.

The Cardinals acquired Heyward in a trade with the Atlanta Braves, where he entered the big leagues with massive potential and carrying the hopes of the franchise on his broad shoulders, though he never really lived up to any of it. The Cardinals gave up promising starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who still had four years of team control at the time of the deal, but the sudden and tragic death of right-field prospect Oscar Taveras prompted the Cardinals to move on Heyward.

He immediately endeared himself to his new club by racking three hits, two of them doubles, on Opening Day. Things tumbled downward from there, and the now-26-year-old finished the first month of the season batting .217/.261/.349 with a putrid .611 OPS.

Heyward clearly picked up the pace after April, and his OBP never dipped below .340 in any month after that. His OPS was never lower than .783, peaking at .881 during a torrid June. He finished with a .293/.359/.439 slash line, .797 OPS and 117 OPS+. He also ended up being a huge plus on the bases, accumulating a 7.0 BsR total, according to FanGraphs.

“Just trying to keep it simple, keep it simple,” Heyward told reporters last month. “There are good stretches, bad stretches. You just try to minimize all of them regardless of what happens. Each at-bat, put it behind you and go attack the next one.”

Heyward has done a decent job of attacking in this postseason. Through Monday night’s Game 3 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, Heyward is 4-for-12, and he hit a home run and a double in that third, both coming against baseball’s Second Coming, Jake Arrieta.

Heyward came into this playoff series with three others to his name. In the small sample of 40 plate appearances, he has produced a dismal .154/.175/.256 slash line, two extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts to his one walk.

Even with that on the back of his card, Heyward can use a strong playoff performance this fall to juice up his value on the free-agent market this offseason. And recent history proves it is possible with Pablo Sandoval landing a ridiculous $95 million for five years of declining work, much of it based off a couple of outstanding playoff runs.

Heyward does not and will not have the body issues Sandoval has, and because he will not turn 27 until next August, a deal well into the ninth figure is absolutely plausible given the kind of all-around player he’s become.

Heyward is also coming off a season in which he was worth 6.5 wins above replacement, via Baseball-Reference.com, and 6.0, via FanGraphs WAR. Both marks put him in the NL’s top 10.

For comparison’s sake, Heyward is coming off a better season going into free agency than Jacoby Ellsbury did after the 2013 season, when he had a 5.7 B-R WAR and a 5.6 fWAR. Ellsbury, going into his age-30 season, landed a seven-year, $153 million contract from the New York Yankees.

Heyward’s season, and possibly his postseason, has most likely priced him out of the Cardinals’ range. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox won’t be in the market to drive up Heyward’s price, but as we’ve seen with plenty of other players in recent offseasons, it only takes one team willing to unload the armored truck.

The Cardinals are not built around Heyward, so watching him walk in the offseason won’t be entirely devastating. However, for the time they do have his services, it is imperative Heyward be an anchor in the lineup if the organization is going to qualify for its 24th World Series.

If Heyward can be that, a championship and a mega-contract will be within his reach.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Rapid Reactions to All of the Early 2015 MLB Division Series Action

The early poll results are in, and they indicate this year’s Major League Baseball postseason is rife with drama, intrigue and controversy as the Division Series kick off.

The No. 1 story of the early going has been Chase Utley‘s ugly slide that broke Ruben Tejada’s leg while helping the Los Angeles Dodgers tie their series against the New York Mets. The aftermath of it all, mainly Utley’s suspension, has sparked all sorts of reaction regarding the slide itself, the punishment and sliding rules along with their enforcement.

But there has been plenty else to discuss. Each series is at least two games deep going into Monday, and every team involved has at least one win, which is good for potential drama and ratings.

Let’s get to discussing.

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Jake Arrieta, Wrigley Field Give Cubs Big NLDS Advantage After Game 2 Win

The Chicago Cubs needed only one win to distinctly swing the advantage.

On Saturday, they got it. Now, the home-field advantage is on their side. But more importantly, so is the pitching lineup.

The Cubs’ 6-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the National League Division Series at Busch Stadium evened the best-of-five tilt. Now the scene moves to Wrigley Field, where Chicago’s North Side, and the 101-year-old stadium, will be rocking at unheard-of levels for Monday’s Game 3.

Aside from the Cubs having a chance to take the series lead, right-hander Jake Arrieta‘s presence on the mound will be the reason for the party. The undisputed team ace—one of the best pitchers in baseball, a front-runner for the league’s Cy Young Award and the man who carried the Cubs through the Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh earlier in the weekwill be taking the ball for the first time in the NLDS.

That by itself, no matter where the game is held, is the Cubs’ golden advantage.

“Getting Jake pitching in the next game is kind of a good thought for us,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters in his postgame press conference, streamed on MLB.com. “Obviously.”

Going into last offseason, the Cubs might have been somewhat unsure if Arrieta was the No. 1 starter he turned into in 2014, or if he was more like the guy who had a 5.23 ERA and 80 ERA+ in the previous four seasons combined between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago.

So, with a need for front-line pitching, they signed Jon Lester to a $155 million contract in December, thinking they’d either have two guys to head to the rotation or at least Lester.

It turned out there was no need to wonder. Arrieta developed into one of the game’s true aces with his 0.75 second-half ERA, which is significant not just because it is amazingly minuscule but because no other pitcher in major league history has ever produced one so small after the July All-Star break.

He takes that resume, along with a complete-game shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card Game, to Wrigley for the pivotal Game 3 of this NLDS, which at one time over the summer seemed to be a lock for the then-dominant Cardinals.

Anyone who understands the Cubs’ fandom and the city’s love for the team, which is difficult not to in this country, knows how big this game is for Chicago. Imagine just how raucous Wrigley Field will be at first pitch Monday. 

Other clubs have seen postseason baseball suddenly ignite their ballparks and cities in the recent past. San Francisco, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Toronto come to mind, but it is difficult to see any of those outdoing what Chicago’s electricity for Monday. This franchise has not won a World Series in more than a century, and now it has the pitching and lineup to legitimately make a run at this year’s Fall Classic.

This NLDS to this point sets up the party, while Arrieta sets up the celebration.

“I mean that was part of the drive as a wild-card team to get past Pittsburgh was to bring that game home also. Our fans are spectacular,” Maddon told reporters Saturday in a pregame press conference when asked about going home with his ace in tow. “You saw the reaction on Clark [Street] the night we did beat Pittsburgh. It’s pretty outstanding. It’s astounding also to watch all of this unfold.”

The Cubs are creating the excitement not only with Arrieta but with a long history of failure. They have injected drama and youth into this series, just as did they did in their regular season.

In Game 1, the Cubs started three rookies in the field, as they did in Game 2 and the wild-card tilt. In the game-changing second inning of Game 2, Maddon called for a stolen base, which was successful, and rookie Addison Russell put down a squeeze bunt to score a run.

Maddon also put rookie Jorge Soler into the No. 2 spot in the lineup, his first start in the postseason. He went 2-for-2 with a home run, a double and two walks, helping mask the recent struggles of rookie Kris Bryant, who is in a 3-for-34 skid over nine games but is likely to win the league’s Rookie of the Year Award.

Some may point to the Cubs’ youth as a problem, but Maddon disagrees.

“I don’t see that,” the manager told reporters when asked about his young lineup. “When I talk to them I see a little bit of inexperience but I don’t see youth.”

What the baseball world will see Monday is the city of Chicago and Wrigley Field pumping the energy. It will also see Arrieta taking the ball for the first time in this series, and if recent history means anything, the Cubs will be sitting in a sweet spot by the end of the day.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Mets vs. Dodgers: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 2

The first one was marvelous and historic. 

The pitching duel between New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom and Los Angeles Dodgers counterpart Clayton Kershaw is why pitchers get top billing in Game 1s. For the first time in postseason history, each starter struck out at least 11 hitters, but it was the Mets offense that broke through to take the lead in a National League Division Series with a 3-1 win Friday night at Dodger Stadium.

That painted the Dodgers into a corner for Saturday night’s Game 2. They have already lost home-field advantage and are in danger of dropping the first two games of the best-of-five set.

The good news is that Zack Greinke, one of the front-runners for the league’s Cy Young Award, is going to start. But the Mets have already dispatched one of Los Angeles’ aces before Games 3 and 4 in New York.

The second game is clearly more critical for the Dodgers than the Mets, but New York isn’t about to give away a playoff game just because it’s leading the series. The keys to winning Game 2 could make or break either club.

 

Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers Must Capitalize on Chances

Opportunities arose in Game 1—that much is certain. The Dodgers did not take advantage of them, though.

For as dominant as deGrom was, Los Angeles did manage six baserunners against him in his seven innings of work. The problem was it could not get a timely, high-leverage hit.

Not until the eighth inning did the Dodgers produce a knock with a runner in scoring position, and they were a miserable 2-for-13 with runners on base. They also finished 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded seven.

Gonzalez, who hit .188 in last year’s NLDS, stranded two and struck out three times, though he did drive in that eighth-inning run. Corey Seager, Andre Ethier and Joc Pederson also left two on base. Kershaw stranded four, but as a pitcher that’s somewhat expected, so griping about it is pointless.

The Dodgers finished the regular season with one of the best offenses in the majors, but they looked nothing like that Friday. And while deGrom had plenty, or everything, to do with that, Los Angeles’ numbers with men on base will typically equate to a loss.

The Dodgers will likely again have chances for timely hits against Noah Syndergaard, New York’s Game 2 starter, but if they do what they did in Game 1, this series may be all but over before it heads east.

 

Yoenis Cespedes Needs a Breakout Performance

Things might seem rosy for the Mets after they beat Kershaw on the road to win Game 1. But they did it without any contribution from Cespedes, who is a major reason why they’re even in the playoffs. With his second-half exploits, Cespedes garnered MVP consideration before he had played even 35 games in the league.

As absurd as that argument was, it gained traction as New York motored toward the NL East title. But Cespedes hit .219/.282/.406 with 17 strikeouts in his last 71 plate appearances.

The trend continued Friday as he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and stranded four runners.

Assuming Greinke is his usual dominant self in Game 2, the Mets will need Cespedes’ bat if they are going to have a good chance to win a second game at Chavez Ravine.

 

Greinke’s Brilliance, Syndergaard’s Surge Must Continue

The first game of this series was such a pitching duel that the Mets’ three runs seemed like a barrage of offense. With Greinke and Syndergaard starting Saturday, there could be a similar feeling in Game 2.

Greinke led the majors with a 1.66 ERA and has yet to allow more than two runs in his four postseason starts with the Dodgers, which gives him a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings.

Syndergaard has gone through some growing pains this season, but over his final four starts he had a 2.93 ERA (nine earned runs in 27.2 innings). One of those turns, against the New York Yankees, ended after he allowed five earned runs in six innings, but he surrendered no more than two earned runs in the other three outings.

Syndergaard had a 4.23 ERA on the road this season, but two of those final four starts were on the road, and though they came against the weak-hitting Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds, he allowed only three runs in 14.2 innings.

“To me, it’s just all about getting comfortable out there on the mound, on the road,” Syndergaard told reporters Friday. “I feel like [in] the last couple starts I had on the road I had a lot of success, lot of comforts. The big thing for me was being able to execute my pitches and become more of a pitcher, not a thrower. And I feel like that’s going to play a huge role [in Game 2].”

For their respective clubs to have a realistic chance to win Saturday night, both starters will have to continue their recent dominance.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Royals Show Their Playoff Formula Is Still a Winner in Crucial ALDS G2 Comeback

It worked out pretty well last year, didn’t it? 

The Kansas City Royals had a definitive formula to winning games during last year’s postseason, and quite frankly it is what they tried to rely on for much of the last two regular seasons.

The plan was simple enough: play a little small ball, maybe get a little lucky and squeeze out some timely hits to overcome shaky starting pitching. Then hand the rock to the back of the bullpen and watch it cruise through the final nine, or more, outs. It was a strategy that carried them to within a win of the 2014 World Series trophy, so it seemed wise to go with it again now.

The Royals did that Friday afternoon in Game 2 of the American League Division Series to snatch a come-from-behind 5-4 victory over the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium. The win evened the best-of-five series that now heads south to Houston for Game 3 on Sunday.

In a small nutshell, the Royals rebounded from Johnny Cueto’s shaky outing, kept it close enough until Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales could get some BABIP luck, let the other team’s bullpen falter for the tying run and then got a couple of timely hits from Alcides Escobar and Ben Zobrist late before calling on the back end of the bullpen to shut down the other team and record the win.

All of that should be familiar if you watched last year’s playoffs, as SportsTalkFeed.com noted:

The Royals’ rotation had a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP during last year’s postseason, and this year it went into the ALDS with a 4.34 ERA, the worst number of any of the playoff rotations this fall. Cueto, the arm they traded for in July and figured would be their playoff ace two months later, was inconsistent during his time in Kansas City, and that continued Friday as he allowed a disappointing but not surprising four runs in six innings.

Cueto’s performance was not all bad, though. All of the damage came in the first three innings, and he left the game having put down 12 of the last 14 hitters he faced. He exited down two runs, but he did not mope, knowing what the Royals’ magic is capable of producing in October.

“He finally really got dialed in after the third inning and kept us in the game,” Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters in his postgame press conference. Josh Vernier of 610 Sports Radio noted Cueto’s actions:

Minutes later, after Lorenzo Cain laced a double to right, Hosmer and Morales got a couple of hole-seeking hits and Mike Moustakas walked to load the bases. Salvador Perez, who homered in the second inning, walked to force in the tying run a batter later.

With the game tied, Yost did not hesitate. He went to the first head of his three-headed bullpen beast, one that had a makeover for this postseason after last year’s closer, Greg Holland, who was lost last month to en elbow injury. Kelvin Herrera had the seventh inning, just like a year ago, with Ryan Madson in the eighth and Wade Davis, last year’s eighth-inning man, taking over as closer if everything went according to plan. 

Herrera, who hit 100 mph with his fastball, gave up a single but nothing more. That set the table for Escobar, who tripled to start the bottom half of the seventh, and Zobrist, who had his pinnacle moment with the Royals after they traded for him in July.

The plan continued after that. Yost gave the ball to Madson, who until this year had not pitched in a major league game since 2011 because of a ridiculously difficult recovery from Tommy John surgery. Madson, with his 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in the regular season, fell right in line with the plan, pitching a clean inning with two strikeouts.

From that point, the Astros’ hope was fleeting. Because the next reliever through the bullpen gate was Davis, arguably the best in baseball over the last two seasons, armed with a 0.97 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. To finish the regular season, he had allowed just one earned run since Aug. 16.

“I’m sure you guys have heard,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters in his press conference, “he’s a pretty good reliever.”

But there was hope for Houston in the ninth. Davis walked Preston Tucker with one out and quick-footed, but sometimes-careless Carlos Gomez replaced him as the runner. And before Davis delivered his next pitch, Gomez was picked off first base after a review overturned the original safe call. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan provided his insight on what’s typical when it comes to Wade Davis pitching:

A batter later, the game was done, and the Royals avoided total disaster by splitting their two home games to start the series.

During last year’s postseason, the Royals found themselves underdogs through the entire month. This year they had the American League’s best record, and in this series they are favorites based on that fact.

Maybe the expectations are different now. Maybe the pressure is different this time. But one thing has remained the same: The Royals are going to win exactly as they have, because it’s worked pretty well for them so far.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Astros Certainly Can Continue to Live by the Home Run in the Postseason

Home runs are supposed to be left in September. Those things are not supposed to transition into the fall, when the weather gets crisp, the leaves get brown and the pitching depth gets dense.

Pitching and small ball win in the Major League Baseball playoffs, or so the saying goes. If you are a team reliant on home runs, that reliance will be the death of you. That is what the myth tells us.

That is not entirely true, though. While pitching wins no matter what month of the year the game is played in, teams that rely on home runs are actually less susceptible to their offense suffering than clubs that don’t rely on the long ball.

The Houston Astros rely on the home run. They finished second in the majors with 230 during the regular season, and through their first two postseason games this year, the franchise’s first since 2005 when it reached the World Series, they have used good pitching and multiple home runs to win.

The Kansas City Royals got Houston’s latest dose in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday, a 5-2 Astros win at Kauffman Stadium to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-five series. George Springer and Colby Rasmus both homered.

The Astros were the second-most home run-reliant team in the majors during the regular season, using that weapon to score 47.6 percent of their 729 runs, according to Baseball Prospectus‘ Guillen Number, a stat that tracks the percentage of runs teams score via home runs.

In games when the Astros hit more than one home run, they were a major league-best 57-11. The usual narrative says that trend won’t continue in the postseason, and while that is sometimes true, it is no more so than for teams that rely on other ways of scoring.

Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh looked into those trends last year and found that between 1995 and 2013, teams that relied on the homer—ones that scored around 40 percent of their runs that way—saw their offensive production drop in the playoffs by 22.4 percent. Teams that did not rely on home runs—ones that scored around 33 percent of their runs through home runs—saw their offensive production drop by 26.5 percent.

Myth busted. The Astros, a team that wins with pitching, home runs and defense, might not see their offense suffer in October as much as people like to think.

While pitching should be credited first and foremost for Houston’s wild-card and ALDS wins—Dallas Keuchel threw six shutout innings in the Wild Card Game, and Collin McHugh allowed two runs in six innings Thursday—the Astros have continued to hit for power. The team hit two home runs against the New York Yankees to help in that 3-0 victory, and it used two more against the Royals to keep its trends alive.

“They’re having fun,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters before Game 1. When you’re having fun, even on this big stage, you’re able to perform the way you do all summer. That’s what they did in New York, and hopefully that’s what they’re going to keep doing.”

There is another trend that has become part of the Astros’ identity: This team strikes out with the best of them. Their 1,392 strikeouts were the second most in the majors and the most in the AL, and that total is also good for ninth highest in the game’s history.

However, this is how the Astros have won all season. So too the Chicago Cubs. So too the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those teams finished in the top seven in the majors in total strikeouts, and they also made the playoffs.

For the Astros, on Thursday they became the sixth team in postseason history to win a nine-inning game despite striking out at least 14 times.

Houston’s first home run against the Royals came in the fifth inning, moments after Jose Altuve was thrown out trying to steal. George Springer, who had 16 regular-season homers despite missing about nine weeks with an injury, followed that downer by unloading on a mistake fastball from Chris Young, putting it over the wall in left-center field for a 4-2 lead.

“When he’s healthy and he’s right, he can be one of the best players in the game,” former major leaguer Eric Byrnes said on MLB Network after the game. “Yeah, one of the best.”

This postseason could be his coming-out party.

“He’s obviously announcing his presence,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters in his postgame press conference.

Colby Rasmus provided more insurance in the eighth inning when he smoked his second postseason home run of the week. That shot made him the fifth player in major league history to have at least one extra-base hit in each of his first five postseason games.

“This is a [bleeping] blast, man,” Rasmus told reporters after the game.

Baseball is full of myths—things we believe to be true. But because of piles upon piles of data now available, they have proved to be false or at least not as true as we once thought. That home runs completely disappear in October is one of those.

The Astros, a team that swings for the fences and does not apologize when it misses, are already doing their best to discredit that belief. And they are certainly talented enough to keep that trend going.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter, @awitrado, and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Astros vs. Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win ALDS Game 1

The similarities are present.

You get that with two underdog playoff teams. You get it more when those teams were expected to be on the outside looking in by the time their seasons ended, and you get it when both teams showed a penchant for contending but were still expected to fall back and be nonfactors in the race to a World Series.

The similarities start to pour out even more when both teams survive the American League Wild Card play-in round to advance to the AL Division Series as the Kansas City Royals did last season and the Houston Astros did Tuesday. The teams face each other in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday, with the Royals holding the league’s best record this time around.

“Nobody really gave us anything at the start of the year, and I don’t think anybody gave us a shot at the end of the year,” Houston ace Dallas Keuchel said in his press conference after throwing six shutout innings against the New York Yankees on short rest in the Wild Card Game. “We’ll have as much fun as we possibly can in Kansas City.”

Unfortunately for Houston, Keuchel, a front-runner for the league’s Cy Young Award, won’t be able to pitch until Game 3 of this series, when he will be on regular rest. That means he will be a bystander for the all-important Game 1 at Kauffman Stadium.

For the men who will participate in that crucial opener, there are a few keys vital to their success, particularly in the shorter best-of-five format.

 

1. Royals Bullpen Repeat

Kansas City’s bullpen was a major factor in the Royals getting to a seventh game in last fall’s World Series. The group was a crutch for the team’s so-so starting rotation, and its 2.74 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 62.1 innings were good reasons to lean on it—only the San Francisco Giants bullpen threw more last postseason, but covering more than 10 innings in an 18-inning game in the National League Division Series helped the total.

This year, the rotation is even less reliable on paper—its 4.34 ERA was nearly the worst in the AL and the worst of all postseason rotations—and that might end up putting an even heavier burden on the bullpen this time around. During the regular season, it was up to the challenge, with its league-leading 2.72 ERA, league-best (by far) 80.4 percent strand rate and league-high 539.1 innings pitched this season. Its 5.0 FanGraphs wins above replacement was fourth, but that was only because its strikeout rate (8.38 per nine innings) was ninth, shoving down its overall value by the website’s calculations.

Despite the bullpen losing closer Greg Holland to a UCL tear in September—he had a 5.82 ERA in his final 19 appearances—it still has four potentially dominant relievers in Danny Duffy (no runs allowed in 8.1 relief innings), Ryan Madson (195 ERA+ in 63.1 innings), Kelvin Herrera (153 ERA+ in 69.2 innings) and Wade Davis (444 ERA+, 0.94 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine in 67.1 innings).

Those four leave manager Ned Yost with a simple paint-by-numbers game plan that seemed to work pretty well last postseason.

“All Yost needs from his starters is for them to throw well for five innings and maybe steal an out or two in the sixth,” Jeffrey Flanagan wrote for MLB.com. “Then, if the Royals have the lead, it is, for the most part, checkmate.”

If Kansas City’s Game 1 starter Yordano Ventura can do that, he and the bullpen could get the Royals off to a great start in this series.

 

2. Finding McHugh’s Best Form

Because the Astros went 11-16 in September, they dumped themselves into the Wild Card Game, forcing them to throw Keuchel then and not in Game 1 of the ALDS. That leaves 28-year-old right-hander Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89 ERA, 3.58 FIP) to take the ball in the first game against the Royals.

McHugh was not very good through his first 14 starts, pitching to a 5.04 ERA, though he still managed to win seven games and pitch seven innings in four of those to show a certain level of inconsistency.

Over his final 11 starts, he was better and more consistent, sort of. He had a 2.89 ERA in those outings, but in three of his final five turns, McHugh allowed four runs or more. His ERA in those games was 8.05. For him to give the Astros a legitimate chance to win Game 1, he has to avoid that kind of blowup Thursday.

“At the end of the day, it’s just a matter of going out and executing,” McHugh said in his press conference Wednesday. “I’ve been really blessed and fortunate this season to be able to come out on the right side 19 times. But like I said, that means we’ve got a really good ballclub.”

 

3. Royals’ Small Ball vs. Astros’ Long Ball

For the similarities these teams have, or had, they go about their success in very different ways. The Astros were second in the league in home runs, and the Royals had the second fewest. The Astros strike out more than any team in the league, and the Royals strike out the least. The Astros walked the fifth-most times, and the Royals walked less than everyone else.

Maybe it was because Yost knew he needed a minimal lead for his bullpen to succeed during last year’s playoffs, but the Royals dropped eight sacrifice bunts for whatever the reason. That was the most of any AL participant and second most behind the Giants, who had 104 more plate appearances. Give the Royals 100 more plate appearances, and they likely lead the entire postseason in that stat, by a lot.

Because the Royals are likely to rely on the same formula for winning this year, they could be bunting early against McHugh. And if the Astros can’t find a way to pull away while Ventura is on the mound, the strategy could easily work again.

In the other on-deck circle, the Astros are thinking about striking with one swing rather than a series of plate appearances. They had seven players hit at least 15 home runs this season, and four more finished in double digits—Preston Tucker hit 13 despite having 323 plate appearances, and George Springer hit 16 despite missing nine weeks with a wrist injury.

Ventura allowed seven homers in a nine-start stretch over the final two months of the season, so he is susceptible to the long ball, though he did not allow one in his final four starts of the season. If the Astros can strike for early home runs against Ventura, as they did against Yankees wild-card starter Masahiro Tanaka, their power could start to bury the Royals and keep them from seeing those outstanding relievers.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


5 Players Who Could Be the Madison Bumgarner of the 2015 MLB Postseason

Last October gave us one of the most impressive one-man performances in Major League Baseball postseason history. 

Madison Bumgarner made seven appearances for the San Francisco Giants in the 2014 postseason, and they needed every single inning he gave them as they marched to their third World Series title in five years.

Bumgarner had a 1.03 ERA in 52.2 innings, and his five shutout innings in relief in Game 7 of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals was one of the more memorable relief outings of any playoffs in the game’s long history.

Bumgarner is not in this year’s postseason, but that does not mean there are no candidates to put together the kind of month that would rival his. While pitchers are part of the pool, there are also position players in the mix who could carry their clubs the way Carlos Beltran did for the Houston Astros in 2004.

As this postseason gets underway Tuesday, we’ll look at some of the players poised to have that kind of impact. While all of them are entirely capable, the last one listed has the best chance to replicate Bumgarner’s success.

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10 Biggest Takeaways from MLB’s Regular Season

We made it. The end is here, and all that remains is the ever-entertaining postseason that never disappoints with its drama and intrigue.

Major League Baseball’s marathon season comes to an end Sunday. It has given us plenty of feel-good, fluffy stories as well as its fair share of controversy and ugliness. And both types were present right up until the end—the Minnesota Twins were the nice storyline, and Jonathan Papelbon gave us the despicable.

With a couple of days until the official postseason starts on Tuesday, most of the talk will be looking forward into October and how the rest of the month might play out. For now, tough, it is time to take a look back at the regular season’s biggest storylines.

Not all of them will make it, but the ones you’re about to read are all significant and helped shape the last six months. So, before we get into the best part of the baseball season, here are the events and happenings that got us here.

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