Kuzul

Earlier today, I wrote a post in defense of New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel.

To summarize the article, I said that I thought he made the right move by bringing in his closer in a save situation this weekend. I also defended him against claims made by another writer on this site about him being the “stupidest man in baseball.” You can read my original post by clicking here.

It got me thinking some more about how often pulling a starter from a strong outing had actually hurt the Mets. The results astounded me. Even though I like to look at performances as well as results, the cold hard fact is that the Mets have won almost nine out of every 10 games when Manuel has called on his bullpen in this kind of role.

Let’s look at the numbers.

In Manuel’s time with New York, the team is 63-24 in games where their starting pitcher has thrown at least seven innings and allowed no more than two earned runs.

Those 63 wins include three complete games and six more shutouts, meaning that on 78-of-87 occasions, Manuel has gone to his bullpen despite a relatively strong outing from his starter.

Sometimes, it seems easy to justify his decision, like when Nelson Figueroa needed 126 pitches to get through seven innings against the Braves last season. He had only allowed two runs on a pair of hits, but he was spent, and there was no way he was going to pitch a complete game that day.

Other times, it seems somewhat bizarre, like when Johan Santana was working on a two-hitter through seven innings with 10 strikeouts against the Phillies, only to be yanked after 101 pitches.

Either way you look at it, the statistics show that when a Mets starter finishes his seventh inning of work with two or fewer earned runs, Manuel will pull him 89.7 per cent of the time.

Of those games when the bullpen was asked to take over, the Mets won 54 of their 78 games, or 69.2 percent. That doesn’t even consider whether the Mets had the lead, were losing, or locked in a tie.

When Manuel took over midway through the 2008 season, the Mets were 16-3 in games where the bullpen was asked to protect a lead after the starter had gone at least seven innings with two or fewer earned runs.

That is not bad at all—in fact, it is outstanding—although fans don’t remember the 16 games they won. They remember Luis Ayala giving up three runs in the ninth inning of a game against the Braves without recording an out. They remember Santana giving the Mets a 5-1 lead through eight innings only for the Phillies to rally for six runs in the ninth inning against the hapless quartet of Duaner Sanchez, Joe Smith, Feliciano, and Aaron Heilman.

Similarly, in 2009 fans do not remember the two innings of flawless work by Pedro Feliciano and K-Rod to preserve Santana’s 1-0 lead against the Phillies at Citi Field. No, instead, they look to the bullpen costing Livan Hernandez an inter-league victory at Camden Yards against the Orioles and J.J. Putz costing Santana a win against the Marlins.

What is lost in all that is that those two defeats were the only times the Mets bullpen blew a game where the starter had gone seven innings, allowed two or fewer earned runs, and left with the lead. Those sceptical fans quick to pass judgement on Manuel and the Mets bullpen also forget the work of the bullpen that kept them in games against the Red Sox at Fenway and the Braves in Flushing when New York rallied to win games after Mike Pelfrey had left on the hook.

Those games, of course, get no attention, because the bullpen did their job. Had they capitulated, it would have been another matter.

And that then brings us back to 2010. The problem with the Mets this year hasn’t been that their bullpen couldn’t protect leads, it’s that they have been unable to keep Mets in the close games when their starter has left in a tied game.

New York is 14-1 in games when their starter has gone seven innings, allowed two earned runs or fewer, and left with the lead.

It hasn’t always been easy or pretty, as was the case on Saturday in San Francisco, but with the exception of Raul Valdes’ 11th-inning meltdown against the Padres, the ‘pen has done a fine job in these situations. Nervous? Yes. But they got the job done.

The bigger reason for concern is in the two games against Washington and the losses against Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Florida when a fine outing from a New York starter was lost by the relief corps. Then again, had the starters done a better job in the first place, maybe they would have handed Feliciano, Valdes, Mejia, Rodriguez, and Co. a lead.

The final conclusion to highlight is that the Mets are 48-6 in Manuel’s tunure when he has turned to his bullpen to preserve a game the Mets were winning because of a fantastic start from a man in their rotation. That’s a .888 winning percentage, or near-90 percent success rate.

You can bash Manuel for his decision-making all you want, but I love those odds.

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Mike Pelfrey’s 10 wins before the All-Star break counted for absolutely nothing on Monday in Arizona, when he was battered for the fourth straight time.

After going 8-1 in his first 12 appearances in 2010, the wheels have started to fall off lately, and Pelfrey—as well as the Mets—is starting to look more vulnerable than ever before.

Every pitcher will have bad days when he can’t throw a pitch for a strike or simply doesn’t have the stuff to get hitters to miss, but it was painful watching Mike struggle in the heat of the desert.

How does his 1.1 inning performance rate among the other bad starts of his career? Here are the five worst performances of his young career so far. If the Mets want to continue dreaming of the playoffs, Pelfrey will have to right the ship, and quickly.

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Carlos Beltran had a mixed night in his return to action on Thursday against the San Francisco Giants, although the general consensus should be that there were more positives than negatives to take from his debut.

Beltran finished 1-for-4 with a putout, and while Mets fans will be happy to have him back in the lineup, he obviously isn’t back to full strength yet.

His lone hit came in the third inning, before he was subsequently thrown out trying to swipe second, and it was also apparent that he needs time to gel with his teammates in the outfield.

Here is a brief summary of his return to Major League action.

At the Plate

Going 1-for-4 with a single is fairly typical and uneventful, but you have to remember, he was facing two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, who only allowed six base hits—all singles—in a complete game shutout.

He took a low-90s fastball for a strike right down broadway in his first at-bat before flying out on a pitch at the letters. He singled through the hole between first and second in his second at-bat, waiting on a hanging breaking ball belt-high and keeping his hands back long enough not to pull it foul.

Beltran tapped a comebacker to Lincecum to end the fifth inning and then grounded out in the ninth when the Mets needed a baserunner to get the tying run to the plate.

Lincecum set up his changeup with a good fastball, and it’s obviously going to take some time for him to adjust to Major League pitching. It’s going to come, though, so I wouldn’t be too worried.

In the Field

Very few balls came near Beltran on Thursday night, which is a nice introduction back to playing nine innings.

He snagged a pretty routine fly ball from Aubrey Huff in the first inning when he had made a good break to come in on the play, but he only had one other ball to field the rest of the game.
 
Juan Uribe lofted a 1-0 pitch to left-center field in the bottom of the third inning. Beltran appeared to take a pretty good route to the ball, but he didn’t seem to be going at it full speed. Jason Bay glanced over towards Beltran as he tracked the ball towards the warning track, and it was Bay who needed to take charge of the play in the end when communication wasn’t forthcoming.

Like with his approach in the batters’ box, the communication will come with time. When he’s fully fit, he’ll make that play without hesitating. It’s okay for him to leave those kinds of balls for Bay, but there are two conditions. First, he has to talk to his leftfielder. Secondly, he better be sure Bay can get there, because that was a centerfielder’s ball to call off. There are going to be big questions if it drops for a double in the gap just because he wasn’t hustling all the way to the ball and assumed Bay would have his back.

On the Basepaths

Coming off of knee surgery, fans weren’t really expecting too much from Beltran in terms of his wheels. He was only on base once, and he was thrown out when the next batter was up.

Beltran tested his knee in the third inning when he tried to steal second base. After reaching on a single, Beltran tried to run on a 2-1 pitch with Ike Davis at the plate. But Giants catcher Buster Posey gunned Beltran down pretty easily at second, even though it took a perfect throw.

The slide was textbook and he popped up without any grimace, which is promising. The jump was okay, but just the fact that he wasn’t afraid to try to take second was a good sign when you consider he didn’t even try to steal a base in his rehab assignment.

The only other noteworthy thing was that Beltran was a little slow out of the box in the ninth inning. He grounded out but didn’t really try to beat out the throw. It could have been because he didn’t want to push it too hard in his first game back, but either play hard or don’t play. I’m glad he’s back, and let’s hope this is the start of things to come.

There’s nothing to really be worried about tonight, and there’s nothing that I saw that can’t be fixed with time. If he sees regular time in center, he could be an important cog for the team going forward. Remember, he’s not going to see someone like Lincecum every day of the week.

 

To read the best, worst, and most likely scenarios for Carlos Beltran and the second half of the season, click here.

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Carlos Beltran is off the disabled list, and he’ll be back in the heart of the New York Mets lineup Thursday night in San Francisco.

After 14 rehab games for the Single-A St. Lucie Mets, the five-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover will provide a big boost to Jerry Manuel’s team, both in the lineup and in hopefully in the field.

Here are three different scenarios for his return…the best, worse, and most likely scenarios.

 

Best Case Scenario

Beltran plays 90 percent of the Mets remaining 74 games getting a day of rest every other week between August and the end of the season after having one days’ rest in his first two weeks back.

He plays in 68 games and bats .290 with 12 home runs, and his knee holds up enough to allow him to swipe a handful of bases. Five or six would be a nice return.

He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense for the last two months of the season after getting back to full speed, with just a couple errors and only a small number of balls he wasn’t able to track down.

Beltran’s reintroduction to batting cleanup in the Mets lineup will help Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and it will take some of the pressure off Jeff Francoeur who will be limited to situational hitting roles and fourth outfielder duties.

Angel Pagan continues to sparkle in right field, batting .300 for the second half, and the Mets supplant the Atlanta Braves at the head of the National League East.

The Mets were 10-15 against the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals—the two bottom teams in the division—in the first half, but Beltran provides a big enough upgrade over Francoeur’s bat to help the club win eight of the last 11 games against these two clubs.

Worst Case Scenario

Okay, the real worst case scenario is that Beltran blows out his knee in his first game back against the San Francisco Giants tonight and is sidelined for the rest of the 2010 season. 

The Mets trade him and his contract at the end of the year.

But for the sake of playing out the scenarios, let’s assume that Beltran isn’t put on the 60-day disabled list anytime soon.

What is more likely is that Beltran needs a couple days off each week for the second half of the season and goes on the 15-day disabled list towards the end of August.

He plays less than half of the team’s remaining games, between 30 and 35, but he is not his old self even in the games he starts.

He didn’t hit a single home run in his Minor League rehab stint in Port St. Lucie, and he struggles with his power swing like he did in his first year with the Mets in 2005.

Based on those ratios, Beltran goes yard just four times in the second half and bats .260, eventually having to bat fifth just to take some of the pressure off.

To compile the misery, he really is a clubhouse cancer on his return, alienating teammates and creating a negative locker room atmosphere.

The Mets seemed to have a lot of confidence before the break, too.

Likely Scenario

Beltran misses one game every other series, playing 62 games over the rest of the season.

He hits seven or eight home runs and bats for a decent average somewhere near his career .283 average.

He’s more likely to trade power for line drives when he comes back, so even if he struggles a little, a .275 clip is the minimum to expect.

On the field, he’s not going to get to every ball hit his way, especially while he still has his knee brace on.

He’s going to make a few errors, especially in that spacious center field and deep power alleys at Citi Field, but he still has a good arm if runners try to take that extra base on him.

Three or four errors and a couple outfield assists seem about right.

He plays well enough to keep Francoeur out of the lineup on a regular basis, but not that well that Francoeur has three months of pine time.

Pagan moves back into center when Beltran needs a day off, and Frenchie moves back into right.

The Mets are still going to be in the hunt all year, although they only secure a wild-card spot.

Still, if you had offered the Mets this scenario at the start of the year, they would probably have snapped your hand off.

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Jason Bay is on pace to hit just 12 home runs this season. Yes, 12. Considering he has averaged 30 over the last six seasons, that would be miserable—an almost shameful return on the Mets’ investment, right?

In many respects, Bay has changed his game since coming to Citi Field. He is utilizing the gaps in the alleys to drive the ball for extra-base hits, and he is being a lot more aggressive on the basepaths.

Still, like I’ve said before, the Mets didn’t bring him over from Boston to bat .265 and steal 20 bases. His walk rate and strikeout rate are both down in proportion with each other which has kept his BB:K ratio in line with career averages.

Interestingly though, he is hitting more line drives than in previous years, and he is hitting almost as many fly balls as he did in ’09 when he hit 36 home runs. The problem is that only 5.6 percent of his fly balls are going out of the yard, compared with almost 20 percent 12 months ago.

Yes, it’s a bigger ballpark, and yes, he needs time to adjust, but he is digging himself into a hole. He is over-pressing and trying to force too much at the plate. He is swinging at more pitches outside the zone (26.2 percent) than ever before, rather than waiting for a pitch he can drive hard or put an uppercut swing on.

I simply don’t think he has confidence right now to sit back on the ball as long as he needs to to really generate the momentum needed to put a home run swing on the ball.

If the Mets win 95 games and make it to the playoffs, people won’t care too much whether Bay hits six home runs or 26 home runs. There will be massive questions in the offseason about just what they are paying him for, but if his power is the only real thing that takes a hit in 2010, fans will accept it more if he helps the team win.

Right now the boos are understandable, but when I spoke to him last he said that he knew as much as anyone that he had some things to work on. The funny thing is that his peripheral numbers, home runs aside, have remained pretty constant, so there’s every chance he will bounce back in the second half.

He will have a little more protection near the meat of the lineup when Carlos Beltran returns, and it’s only a matter of when Bay starts to hit, rather than if .

He’s not going to get 30 home runs, but anything in the 18-20 range isn’t as far fetched as it might seem. He needs one home run every fifth or sixth game to reach these numbers, and considering he has gone deep once every 4.9 games as a full-time player it certainly could happen.

 

Odds of Bay hitting 20 home runs: 65 percent

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David Ortiz became the first Boston Red Sox slugger to win the home run derby on Monday night, powering his way past Hanley Ramirez at Angel Stadium.

Ortiz put on a show for the fans from start to finish, and he outlasted his younger competition on his way to the silverware.

Read below to get a blow-by-blow account of the evening’s home run derby showdown.

 

10:45 p.m. Ortiz says the win means a lot to him to be able to put on a show for the fans. In a very classy touch, Big Papi dedicates his victory to Jose Lima who passed away last month. He lifts the grand silver trophy above his ahead and celebrates a very deserving victory.

 

10:40 p.m. David Ortiz is the champion here in Anaheim. He hit 32 home runs, including 11 in the final, and he seemed to pace himself perfectly throughout. He is the ninth Red Sox player to compete in the derby, and at his fourth time of asking, Big Papi has finally given Boston a Home Run Derby winner.

State Farm has donated $573,000 to the Boys and Girls Club of America.

 

10:38 p.m. With six outs and seven home runs needed to tie, Hanley gets a drink from his sons. Big Papi rushes over with a towel, dries the sweat off his head, and hugs his rival. It’s a great sight.

Eight outs, and it’s looking bleak for Hanley. He has to get hot real quick. He goes yard to centerfield for his fifth onto the green tarp to the side of the fans, but now he has one out left.

His final out is a groundout to left field, as Hanley’s charge falls short. Ortiz wins the showdown 11-5.

 

10:34 p.m. That’s four outs and one home run for Hanley. Big Papi is relaxing on the sideline as the Marlins slugger takes a timeout.

He’s back to the rocks with a 435-foot line drive bomb into the water feature, and he goes back-to-back with a shot to the left of the pile.

He hits his fourth just over, 410 feet, and he is warming up now.

 

10:31 p.m. Hanley’s off to a close start as he hits an out off the wall. He went the other way, but it’s still an out. His second out isn’t as deep, but he gets on the board with a bomb off the bullpen roof.

 

10:25 p.m. Ortiz is finally ahead of a pitch as he yanks it foul, but he stays back on the next one and makes a long out to centerfield.

Papi rests on his back foot as his fifth out comes halfway up the wall. A stat on ESPN says that the combined 87 home runs so far tonight have combined for 7.1 miles.

Papi sneaks one in behind the foul pole in right for his ninth dinger, but now there are seven outs. He hits No. 10 to right-center, but is inches away from his 11th as it narrowly misses the reach of fans once again.

The last time someone hit double-digit home runs was Bobby Abreu in 2005 (11).

Big Papi finishes with 11. That is the score to beat.

 

10:17 p.m. Ortiz will bat first here in the final. His first swing produces a home run over the tall part of the fence, but his second is a no doubter. His third is at the rail in the front row, too, but they all count.

“Wow,” is all Berman can say as the fourth goes halfway up the crowd in right, and after his first out he hits two more shots. It’s Papi Showtime as his seventh and eighth clear the fences, but he now has two outs and will towel off.

 

10:15 p.m. Here we are, down to the final two. Both men are tied on 21 home runs, so it is academic that the scores don’t carry forward. Whoever hits the most home runs in their next go will be the 2010 home run derby champion.

 

10:12 p.m. It’s unbelievable, yet somewhat predictable. Hart has nine straight outs without a single home run. He led the first round with 13, but nine swings later he is still on 13. That’s disappointing, and his 10th out is a fly ball that doesn’t even make the track.

He was awesome in the first round, but the bearded slugger falls flat after his break. Ortiz and Ramirez will battle it out for the crown.

 

10:09 p.m. Corey Hart rolls over his first two pitches, but he has been sat down for more than 90 minutes. That is his third out, and he isn’t close to going yard.

Make that four outs, as another ball trickles foul down the left field line. He finally gets under one, but he flies out to centerfield. Still no home runs. He needs eight, remember.

 

10:06 p.m. That’s seven outs for Hanley and he is still on 12. Will Hart even need to bat again

There goes his 13th, so that will make Hart pick up his lumber once more. Hanley goes 459 feet over the greenery to dead centerfield and the next one lands 476 feet away deeeeep into left field. At 465 feet, his 16th is almost as long.

His 17th goes 373 and barely crawls over the low wall down the left field line, but he has revitalized himself. Five straight home runs before that last out.

Here comes the gold ball, as Corey Hart waits on deck. His next home run is another over 450 feet, so now he has nine in each round. Make that 10. I wasn’t sure it was staying fair but it hooked round. 454 feet is the distance on his 20th, and Ramirez is hitting some long, clutch, blasts. 

He raises his arms as he ties Big Papi on 21, and he needs one more to book his place in the final. But he grounds out down the third base line. If Hart does not his eight home runs, both will advance. If Hart hits nine, then Ortiz and Ramirez will have a bat-off.

 

 

9:59 p.m. Ramirez makes a pair of early outs and he is still on nine home runs from his first round. That sweet stroke into the left field bullpen gives him double digits, and his next swing finds the rock pile 440 feet from home plate.

Chris Berman says the next ball is “pulverized”. At 468 feet, I am not going to argue. What a shot! Hanley has 12 in total with five out.

 

9:57 p.m. Hanley Ramirez is up now and he needs five to make Corey Hart bat again here in the second round.

 

9:53 p.m. Cabrera flies out to left field and that is it for the Tigers’ slugger. His two-round total of 12 falls one short of Corey Hart’s first-round total, so Miggy is done. But he certainly entertained the fans here tonight.

 

9:51 p.m. Cabrera watches as his third homer of the round clears the wall in right-centerfield. He goes the other way again for a foul ball home run—the first of the night, amazingly—and he fouls one into the stands in right for his third out.

This one is onto the rocks 429 feet to give him 11 in total, and he goes to the opposite field again, only to see it go foul. That is five outs now on Miggy.

Cabrera grooves a pitch into the rocks half way up the rock pile display, but he needs at least two more to give him a chance.

 

9:46 p.m. Cabrera is up next, needing at least seven to have a chance. He hits the first one out to move up to eight for the day.

 

9:45 p.m. I can’t count how many rows back his 18th is, but his 19th and 20th go between the stands in right field into the gap under the State Farm sign. It is so impressive from the big guy.

He hits one off the wall in right for his seventh out, and his eighth out follows as he gets on top of a picth a hits a line drive. His uppercut swing produces No. 21, and he hits one off the foot of the wall for his ninth out. His final out doesn’t make its way out of the infield, but 13 home runs in round two give him 21 in total, putting him in the lead.

That was some performance.

 

9:40 p.m. After a short break, we’re back live. Ortiz will bat first in the second round, starting with eight homers.

His first swing is a deep fly out to the wall, but his second goes eight rows deep, 433 feet. He goes to right-center-field for his 10th of the day, second of the round, but he goes straight to center for his 11th.

His 12th is off the State Farm farm down the line, and he gets his hands inside a ball to drive it 413 feet for his 13th. It just looked like a protective swing. The next one almost goes into the second tier 413 feet as he leans back, and he hits a rainbow to right field for 15. He still only has two outs.

Take a breath, because this is another blast, and he finally makes his third out as his back foot almost comes off the ground. He goes over 450 feet again as he sends one towards the scoreboard, and he is getting tired. Time for a drink.

 

9:32 p.m. Corey Hart had more home runs than all four of the eliminated sluggers combined. The home run totals carry over into the second round, so he’s in a great place to get into the final.

 

9:31 p.m. Cabrera now has eight outs, but that one goes 467 feet and Boomer says it almost hits a helicopter. It was an absolute shot to left, although his next swing goes for a long, loud out to the foot of the wall.

Cabrera gets under this one for the final out, but his seven home runs are enough to book his place.

 

9:27 p.m. Swisher is now out and either Holliday or Cabrera will join the trio of Hart, Ortiz, and Ramirez.

He makes two quick outs but gets on the board with a 404-foot homer to left-centre. No. 2 is over the bullpen in left a grand 464 feet, and he mashes one a mile over the shrubs in centre. They say 446 feet, but it looked much longer—it really was a bomb.

His fourth is 469 feet off his shoe laces that has Chris Berman in awe, and it looks like his BP pitcher is pitching around him now. He ties Holliday with his fifth blast and books his place in the semi final with a 476-foot shot into the water.

We have our final field set now, so it’s goodbye to Swisher, Wells, Young, and Holliday.

 

9:21 p.m. Miguel Cabrera is the last guy to go in the first round. Hart, Ortiz, and Ramirez are all through, and Cabrera will join them with six home runs.

Miggy fell three hom runs short of making the final round of the HRD in his only other previous attempt in 2006, so he will be looking to go one better four years later.

Cabrera has been raking in 2010 for the Tigers and he is currently on pace to shatter his previous career high of 37 home runs, set in 2008 in his first year in the American League.

He has cooled down somewhat since hitting eight home runs in the space of 10 games at the end of May and first week of June, but underestimate him at your peril. If form is anything to go by, Cabrera is the hot bat, and he has hit more home runs in Angel Stadium per games played there than all but two other ballparks in the Majors (Jacobs Field and Dodger Stadium).

 

9:17 p.m. Hanley gets under two balls, but his seventh is a moon shot over the ‘pen in left. Down to his final out, he cracks another one onto the greenery and a ninth 426 feet down the third base line. He finishes with a ground ball for an out, but his nine hoem runs puts him in second. He absolutely crushed the ball and deserves his spot in the next round.

 

9:14 p.m. Ramirez sends one out with his first swing, but three quick outs to left and left-center  slow him down. He hits his second 417 feet into the rock pile in left-centerfield, and his fourth lands 422 feet over the conifers and onto the tarp.

He hits a line drive blast 474 feet and then a fifth to left over the bullpen. That secures his place in the second round. His sixth is just over the wall to the left of the rocks, and he was inches away from a seventh that one hops the wall.

Six home runs and six outs for Hanley, who takes a drink.

 

9:10 p.m. Hanley Ramirez will be up next. He is the penultimate guy to bat in the first round and he is a fairly recent addition to the Home Run Derby list. His 13 homers  in 2010 are the fewest of any of today’s field of eight.

He has only ever hit 30 bombs in a season once in his first four full years in the Majors, although he obviously has some pop in his bat, even if he can be a little lazy dogging it after booted balls.

Hanley is clearly a stud, but just one extra-base hit in his last 11 games is ugly. I’m not saying he’s a singles hitter, but it is also telling that he is batting over .300 for the year but only has a .381 OBP clip.

There’s a reason not many people are picking him tonight. Follow their lead, because he’s not winning anything.

 

9:06 p.m. Ortiz launches one inside the pole 390 feet to right field, but he is off balance as he gets under one that lands just before the warning track. He hits his sixth bomb down the line and takes another break to adjust his gloves as Tony Pena catches a breath.

The next one is a loud moon shot 383 feet which I wasn’t sure would get out and it gives him seven homers and seven outs. He clears the State Farm sign in right for his eighth bomb and then calls for refreshments from the sidelines. He’s at eight and eight right now.

He grounds out down the first base line for his ninth out and it looks as if he’kll finish second so far. That is in fact it, and he will be moving on into round two.

 

9:03 p.m. Ortiz just gets enough of a ball to centerfield for his first home run, and he tuns on a ball to launch one 440 feet down the line in right. Pulling the ball as a left-hander is key. He hits his third 376 feet to right (which wouldn’t go to left-center), but he pops out to shallow right field for his second out.

He says goodbye for his fourth shot on a 378-feet blast, but he still needs two more to guarantee his place in the last four. Vernon Wells is already out and now joins Chris Young.

Papi is patient, but that is out No. 5.

 

8:58 p.m. Big Papi returns to the Home Run Derby for the fourth time, and the first since back-to-back-to-back appearances between 2004 and 2006.

Ortiz finished joint last with just three longballs in his HRD debut six years ago at Minute Maid Park, but he made a run through to the semifinals in ’05 in Detroit after running out of steam in the second round.

2006 wasn’t much better for Ortiz, as he failed to make the final round once again, losing out to eventual winner Ryan Howard and the Mets’ David Wright.

The Red Sox slugger had seen his production drop for three straight years after hitting 54 homers in ’06, but he looks to be back on track this season after a dreadful first month. The left-hander will have more success pulling the ball than a right-hander will, but it probably doesn’t bode too well that his slugging percentage in Angel Stadium (.415) is the worst out of any park he has played in more than six times.

 

8:56 p.m. David Ortiz needs six home runs to guarantee his place in the next round. Chris Young is already out and Vernon Wells will be eliminated if Papi goes deep three times.

 

8:54 p.m. Two quick outs for Holliday on a fly ball and roller, but he goes yard 434 feet to left field over the bullpen. He chops one foul for the third out, and makes three more quick outs to bring up six outs and still one home run.

He lines what would have been a double to left, and he pops one up down the right field line for the ninth out. He just clears the wall on a 412 foot blast, and that is followed by his second consecutive bomb to give him three…make that four on a 497-foot blast to the second tier. He moves into second place and passes Swisher with his fifth homer, but that’s all.

If you get a chance, check out the 497-foot blast off the second deck facing. It was absolutely crushed and it’s the longest tonight by 33 feet.

 

8:48 p.m. Matt Holliday can guarantee his spot in the second round with 13 or more right here.

The Cardinals outfielder has a ton of power, but he will have to harness it better than he did in 2007 when we squared off with Big Daddy Vlad and Co. in AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Holliday failed to make it to the finals—as did Pujols—and considering the duo of Guerrero and Alex Rios only combined for five home runs in the last round, it is likely that either one could have won it had they not crashed out earlier.

The left fielder has 16 home runs so far this season, showing the sort of raw power that made him a smash hit in Colorado as a promising young ballplayer in his mid 20s.

Holliday is a streaky power hitter. He hit three home runs in the first six games of the season, but he then only hit one more in his next 35 games. Similarly, after six homers up until June 16 (243 at-bats), Holliday then hit four home runs in 17 at-bats over a 10-RBI, five day tear.

The slugger is 8-28 with five dingers in the last week, so he’s definitely in the mood to go yard. He could explode tonight. He has 13 to chase.

 

8:44 p.m. Swisher fouls a ball to the backstop, rolling over the ball. He hits his first home run to right-center and pulls his second down the line inside the fould pole in right. There’s two outs on Swish, and then three as is rolls down the line.

There’s now five outs on the Yankees outfielder, but he hits his third longball 426 feet to right-center again. That’s as many as the first two combined. He goes 440 feet for his fourth home run, but rolls over another for his seventh out. He has two outs to go, but he will need some more, and that popup isn’t going to help.

He just misses his fifth home run to the deepest part of the park in front of the 400 foot sign in center, and he finishes with four, good enough for second at this point.

 

8:38 p.m. Nick Swisher will be up fourth with a tough act to follow.

The Yankees didn’t want Robinson Cano messing up his swing, but they had no trouble to ‘Send Swish’ to the derby. Yes, I know the Yanks said it was because of Cano’s back, but there will be some sceptics and conspiracy theorists out there.

Swisher’s 15 home runs put his season in line with his career averages, although he has really blossomed with a strong batting average in 2010. That won’t help him tonight where it is all about the longball.

It’s his first time at the All-Star game and his first appearance in the derby, so expect him to enjoy his time swinging for the fences. He’s always got a big smile on his face, and it’s no different now. He is only one home run behind Cano, who he is effectively replacing, and two behind Mark Teixeira in the Yankees lineup, so he deserves to be here. Let’s see what he’s got.

 

8:36 p.m. Two quick outs bring up eight outs, and he looks tired as he grounds one down to left field. 12 home runs and one out left…Make that 13 as he goes into the rock pool again. That’s it for Hart as he finishes with 13 and receives a standing ovation.

 

8:34 p.m. Hart takes three pitches but then lines into an out. His fifth ball goes off the bullpen fence and he follows it with a ball into the shrubs in center. Hart goes to centerfield again for his third home run and then clears the fence again for No. 4.

Hart spins on one for his fifth at 419 feet but makes an out after five in a row. He just catches enough of one to the rocks in the outfield, but that’s out No. 3. Hart clears the bullpen in left field for his seventh dinger and looks very good. The ball solunds good off the bat for the eighth home run (also to the pen) and he crushed one 464 feet for No. 9. That was an absolute blast.

Hart’s 10th goes 459 feet and his third in a row goes 463. He is putting on a show! He continues with a shot down the line for a dozen, but that is out No. 6. He still has four outs left.

 

8:28 p.m. Corey Hart doesn’t have much of a target to go at early on. He needs only three to take the lead. Hart is having the time of his life in his seventh year as a Brewer. He already has 21 home runs this season and he leads the NL with 65 runs batted in. The two-time All-Star needs only three more home runs to equal his career high, set in 2007 when he played 140 games.

It’s a safe bet to say that Hart will shatter he previous highs of home runs and walks in the second half of the year, but his power appears to have come at the expense of speed (just four stolen bases) and discipline (70 Ks).

His .288 batting average is above his career average and his OPS numbers are more than 100 points higher than in the past six years. There’s no doubt that Hart has been raking this year, but he better keep pulling the ball in Angel Stadium if he wants to even think about picking up the trophy tonight in his HRD debut. He’s only ever played three games in the stadium, but he will know that right down the line is the best place to aim for here.

That said, the first two right-handed batters didn’t make much noise!

 

8:25 p.m. Wells makes two quick outs, but the third almost carries to left-centerfield. A fan reaches over to catch a home run ball at just 361 feet—it probably would have fallen short had he not grabbed it.

Wells gets under another ball for the sixth out, and he rips one foul down the line in left for the eighth. He crushed his second one on a 428-foot blast that was a no doubt blast, and he ends his day with a ball that hit the bottom of the wall. His score of two is top right now, but it’s been very quiet. Only 18 pitches seen for Wells, apparently. There must be a power failure here, because this has been somewhat disappointing so far. Give it time though.

 

8:22 p.m. Vernon Wells will bat second. Wells might have himself a career year if he stays healthy after the break. He is on track to break his 33 home run watermark set in ’03, and he could seriously challenge some of his other career highs (especially double and walks) if he maitains his hot start.

Trouble is, he’s just 3-for-36 in his last 10 games and he hasn’t hit a home run in the month of July. He has just four home runs in the last month after hitting four in Toronto’s first three games of the year.

Wells does not really use the whole field, so expect everything to go to left and left-centre field. If the ball hugs the third base line he could hit home runs in bunches, but if not he could have an early exit.

 

8:20 p.m. Chris Young took the first thee pitches before hitting a routine fly ball to left field. He ripped a line drive foul down the third base line and then cranked a home run 410 feet. His third out came under a fly ball off the warning track and the fourth was a line drive that one-hopped the wall.

A ground ball was out No. 6 and another weak fly ball to left field was No. 7. Young takes a time out and shouts “Let’s go baby,” to his soft tosser. He just missed a home run and then lined another ball that would have been a single through the hole between short and third.

Young has had nothing, and the right-hander flies out to a kid in shallow center field to end his day.

 

8:14 p.m. Chris Young is up first. Young is another batch of the new generation of outfielders who can handle the lumber and rip up the base paths.

He is a free swinger who can rip the cover off of a ball when he makes contact, and he will be looking to bring home the silverware to Arizona when all is said and done. He has 15 blasts on the season, including three in his last 13 games.

Here’s a fun fact about Young: He has NEVER hit a home run to the opposite field, so make sure you’re standing in straightaway left field tonight if you want a souvenir. I’m not convinced he will be hitting too many balls over the 400 marker in center, but you can sure that he will be peppering that foul pole.

Young will be only the second D’back to ever take part in the derby. The first? Luis Gonzalez who won it with 16 in 2001, beating Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds, and A-Rod.

 

8:12 p.m. A quick reminder of the rules. Each player gets 10 outs each round, and any swing that does not produce a home run is an out. The top four advance to the second round and the top two after the second round advance to the final. The totals roll over from the first round into the second, but not from the second to the final.

 

8:10 p.m. Joe Morgan has picked Miggy Cabrera to win the derby, while Bobby Valentine has picked…Jose Ortiz?!? I’ll have to rewind the DVR, but I’m sure that’s what he said. Bo Jackson throws out the ceremonial pitch and we are set to go.

 

8:06 p.m. The players are being announced. First up will be Chris Young, followed by Vernon Wells from the AL. Corey Hart bats third with Nick Swisher—booed by the fans surprisingly—fourth. Matt Holliday is fifth and David Ortiz, also greeted by jeers, sixth. Hanley Ramirez is the final NL batter, and Miguel Cabrera will close out the first round.

 

7:58 p.m. Batting practice is over, Train has almost finished performing, and we are moments away from the start. There’s a great crowd on hand and the players are soaking in the atmosphere.

 

7:50 p.m. Some early statistics from ESPN about average home run length. Vernon Wells’ average home run length is 408 feet. That would clear any of the fences here at Angel Stadium, where the deepest part of the ballpark is 400 feet to straightaway center.

Only one participant has an average distance of less than 400 feet this year…Corey Hart (395 feet).

 

7:40 p.m. An early look at the sports betting websites has Miguel Cabrera out in front, followed closely by David Ortiz. Corey Hart and Nick Swisher have decent odds around 5/1, with Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez the outsiders.

 

7:30 p.m. Hello and welcome to Bleacher Report’s live blog of the 2010 Home Run Derby.

Eight of the game’s best sluggers will shoot for the moon at 8pm EST, hoping to wow fans at Angel Stadium and take Prince Fielder’s crown.

The four representatives from the American League are: David Ortiz (Red Sox), Miguel Cabrera (Tigers), Vernon Wells (Blue Jays), and Nick Swisher. Representing the National League are Corey Hart (brewers), Matt Holliday (Cardinals), Hanley Ramirez (Marlins), and Chris Young (D’Backs).

Who do you expect to win? What will be the key to victory? Will 16 home runs be enough to advance to the finals? Will anyone come close to the 35 bombs that Josh Hamilton hit two years ago at Yankee Stadium? Who will hit the biggest blast?

All of this and much, much more, in the coming hours. Let me know your thoughts below.

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While many baseball fans will get wrapped up in the allure of Evan Longoria playing next to Derek Jeter on the left side of the infield or Hanley Ramirez swinging for the fences in the Home Run Derby, it is former Major Leaguer and longtime Angels broadcaster Rex Hudler who is really going beyond baseball at the 2010 All-Star game by highlighting a cause close to his own heart.

The allure of home field advantage, dream lineups, and majestic blasts over the terraced bullpens in the outfield may help craft this week’s headlines, but Hudler is in Los Angeles promoting volunteerism and celebrating some very special all-stars among us who don’t receive the fanfare they deserve.

Hudler’s first son Cade was born with Down Syndrome 13 years ago, and it was the Wonder Dog who was on hand to emcee a heartwarming game between youngsters with special needs to kick off All-Star weekend in southern California on Friday.

Down syndrome is a genetic condition that affects one in 733 babies—approximately 4,000 children each year—and causes delays in a child’s physical and mental development, according to the National Down Syndrome Society.

Hudler, who spent 30 years playing and commentating on professional baseball, created the non-profit Team Up For Down Syndrome charity with his wife Jennifer in 1997, and he said he was thrilled to work with the MLB and Bank of America to support the Little League Challenger Division. The LLCD is a branch of Little League which enables children with physical and mental challenges to enjoy America’s national pastime.

“To see the joy on my son’s face, it just lit me up like a tree,” Hudler said, when talking about watching Cade play baseball. “I was so excited to see how much joy it brought him.

“It wasn’t as structured as Little League, but they played. They went to the plate and the coach flipped a ball up there and they hit it and ran and they did the best they could to throw them out and catch the ball.”

For Hudler, who has three other children besides Cade, it was just one more reminder that youngsters with special needs can do just as many things as typical children.

“I had the typical dreams that a dad has of his kid becoming a big league player, but they [the doctors] told us three days after we had Cade that we had a child that had Down Syndrome.

“It didn’t change the way that I felt at that moment because he was healthy and felt good and was a typical child as far as I knew, but then the reality set in that he did have Down Syndrome. We had to let go of the dreams we had for a typical child, and we had to change our dreams around a child with a disability.

“I have to tell you 13 years later that it can be tough and it can be challenging at times because he is a little more emotionally delayed, but he gives more joy, more unconditional love, than I ever imagined possible. We are blessed to have three other kids besides him, he not only enhances my life, but his other siblings’ lives as well.”

With this year’s midsummer classic set in and around the Los Angeles area, Bank of America and the Little League Challenger Division have been providing an abundance of opportunities to highlight these inspirational athletes.

They donated more than 3,000 tickets to LLCD programs in Orange, Riverside, and Los Angeles counties and are hosting an exhibition game between two LLCD teams to mark the official opening of MLB All-Star FanFest.

“My son wanted to play baseball,” Hudler, 49, said. “They didn’t have a Little League that could take care of him when he wanted to play baseball, but I found out that there was a league called Challenger League for children with disabilities. So we drove him across town and he played with other kids with disabilities.

“Challengers are starting to sprout up everywhere because kids with disabilities love to play baseball just like typical kids, and it’s more exciting to watch them play because of the joy they have on their face.

“The typical kids in the league get to shadow and buddy up with the kids with disabilities and they help them play baseball. It gives the typical boy a perspective on life and how thankful they are to be able to walk, and catch a ball, and talk and it makes overall life better.”

But it’s not just the children who learn valuable life lessons about living, playing, and working with people with disabilities. For Hudler, it meant literally re-writing his idea of parenthood and changing his perceptions of being a father.

“As a parent you always strive for patience,” he said. “That’s one thing as human beings that a lot of us are short on, but I’m getting better. I’m not where I want to be, but I’m learning how to breathe two or three times before I react.

“Most males have a hard time when the kid spills the milk or breaks a pane of glass or drops a plate or something like that, but I’m learning how to take a take a few deep breaths and not say anything which is hard for me being a ‘Type A’ high-strung male like I am. So I’m learning a lot about patience but also about unconditional love, how to love people unconditionally.

“I’m learning about differences in people all the time. People are different, things are different, and my acceptance level is at a much greater spot, a much higher level of accepting differences, so that’s a big impact my son has had on my life.”

With Hudler knowing first hand just what impact special needs children can have in families and societies, he said it was fantastic that a corporate sponsor such as Bank of America had teamed up with the charities to raise awareness of the condition.

This week alone, 275 Bank of America associates will devote 1,200 volunteer hours to community projects—including a series of Little League Challenger programs—as part of their goal to donate one million hours in 2010

Bank of America staff also helped baseball fans attending the MLB All-Star FanFest on Friday discover local volunteer opportunities. Everyone who visited their booth and committed to donate their time was entered for a chance to win a pair of tickets to Tuesday’s All-Star game.

Hudler, who played for six different teams including three years with the California Angels in the mid ’90s, added, “They’re not just writing a check. Bank of America is a great sponsor and they have their people out there in the community doing stuff and that’s what we’re excited about…getting some corporate sponsorship and raising awareness of these Challenger Leagues.

“Pick out something that is worthwhile to you. Maybe it’s something in your family, maybe you want to get involved with the environment. By getting involved you can make the world a better place, and I really mean that.

“I’m loving giving back because I’m learning more about myself and I feel good about myself as a human being. It’s about giving back, it’s not about ourselves. If you want to grow as a person, reach out and do something for someone else.”

 

• To contact Team Up For Down Syndrome, call 714-665-TEAM or 1-888-4-TEAMUP. You can also visit the charity’s website here or get involved by contacting the NDSS here.

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When Cliff Lee was traded from Philadelphia to Seattle last December, the Mariners didn’t send an All-Star to Citizens Bank Park in return. They didn’t even send a fellow ace with a big contract or a 30-30 type bat. Instead they moved three prospects, including Phillippe Aumont, a first-round pick of the 2007 draft who had not played above double-A.

A similar story happened days later when Kyle Drabek was sent from Philly to Toronto in the Roy Halladay deal, and also the year before when Carlos Santana was sent to the Dodgers in exchange for Casey Blake and cash. Drabek threw the first nine-inning no hitter for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats last week, and Santana already has five home runs and a .297 batting average through 23 games behind the plate in LA.

It is guys like Aumont, Drabek, and Santana who often make or break these big trades, but they’re very much always on the undercard when they deserve a much higher billing.

Here are10 more prospects who could be on the move as the trade deadline approaches, and it’s likely that all of them would be an afterthought to most casual fans at the expense of the stud in the deal.

Begin Slideshow

If absence makes the heart grow fonder, it is patience that gives a baseball team confidence.

The New York Mets were able to tame Washington’s uber prospect Stephen Strasburg in his shortest start of his young Major League career on Saturday, even if many of the near 40,000 crowd had left by the time the Nats walked off with the victory in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Strasburg was as good as advertised in many respects, but the Mets were able to build the 21-year-old’s pitch count up to 96 and force him out after just five innings. If he missed with his fastball, the Mets would make him throw another one, then another, and then one more. Patience was the key.

Okay, “tame” might not be the most accurate term to describe how the Mets figured out the rookie, but Strasburg did throw more pitches than ever before while striking out the fewest batters in his sixth big league start.

Still, he hit triple digits on his fastball on a sunny and humid day in the nation’s capital, and he had a lively changeup that kept the Mets guessing. But Strasburg gave up four hits and three walks, allowing two runs and three walks and leaving on the end of a 2-0 deficit.

Strasburg had pitched into the sixth inning in each of his previous five starts, and in three of these games he did not walk a single guy. He wasn’t quite that good on Saturday, but it is important to note than once again he received very little run support.

In the last four games Strasburg has pitched, the Nationals have scored just three runs combined, including the two today.

With no help from his offense, and another dominant outing from journeyman knuckleballer R.A Dickey, Strasburgh was fortunate to pick up a no decision and remain at 2-2 on the year. Dickey should have been 7-1 and he would have been had K-Rod not blown the save.

As nasty as Strasburg’s was, New York’s batters were able to lay off fastballs away and breaking balls inside at Nationals Park, capitalising instead on patient at-bats and occasional mistakes.

Although he hit 100 MPH on his third pitch of the game, the Mets were able to watch a number of his harder offerings early to force the pitch count up. In many respects, the outing was a carbon copy of his second start against the Indians on June 13 (5.1 IP, 95 pitches, 2H, 1ER, 5BB, 8Ks).

Alex Cora, the second batter Strasburg faced, passed on three consecutive 99-MPH fastballs away to draw a five-pitch walk, and Ike Davis had a pair of good at-bats against the rookie. He was able to lay off a trio of 92-MPH changeups outside to draw a first-inning walk and he fouled off a high-80s changeup and low-80s curve in the third before singling on a fastball to right.

Josh Thole, too, looked good against S.S. He fouled off five-straight pitches before drawing a 10-pitch walk in the first inning and he was able to lay off a pair of curveballs down and in before doubling the Mets lead on a fastball up the middle. Jason Bay had given the Mets the lead in the first inning when he ripped a run-scoring double the other way.

After 37 pitches in the first inning, Strasburg was able to get through the second on just 11 pitches. But with the exception of Angel Pagan—who made three outs on a combined six pitches—the Mets put good swings on the ball and showed exceptional discipline against a very good hurler.

Strasburg started mixing things up more after he had been through the order a couple times, and this seemed to handcuff the Mets a little. Strasburg only threw a fastball four times in the fourth inning and then three times in the fifth—a total of seven times in 22 pitches—but even though he put up zeros he wasn’t on the mound to pitch the sixth after topping his previous high pitch count of 95.

Strasburg wasn’t terrible by any means, and it may even be a stretch to say that he was simply average on Saturday. He pitched well, but the Mets took a good approach. When they were able to take pitches, they showed that Strasburg was human at times when he was forced to challenge hitters on hitters’ counts.

Everyone forgets that Strasburg is just that…human. All of the hype and accolades will probably be well-deserved by the end of the year, but teams will eventually figure him out. Strasburg will have bad days, and if things conspire against him he will lose many more games, probably like he deserved to today.

On a wider note though, this game could be important for the Mets. They need to remain patient at the plate, take pitches, and select their zones. If they can do it against someone like Strasburg, they can do it against else they’re likely to face before the All-Star break. It was the right approach to take today, and you could certainly make the case that it’s the right approach for every game.

The free-swinging Mets hopefully learned a lesson today, and that can only be positive for the rest of the year. The result may not have been what they deserved, but that is baseball.

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By the time the New York Mets get through with Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals this weekend they will be exactly half way through their 162-game regular season schedule.

As we near the mid point of the season, let’s revisit five questions the Mets had coming into the season.

Will the Mets Pitching Hold Up?

Yes and no. First, the good. The Mets will have a 10-game winner at the All-Star break in Mike Pelfrey and the team currently has a collective ERA of 3.77, good enough for sixth in the league. The team has combined for more shutouts than any other team in baseball and no team has held baserunners in check than the Mets.

R.A Dickey has been a revelation, starting the year 6-0 before losing to the Marlins in San Juan, and nobody would have guessed that Hisanori Takahashi would be 6-3. Pedro Feliciano has been an absolute workhorse and Jenrry Mejia has shown the Mets the future, even if the club mishandled him.

Now for the average and the bad. While he’s not been terrible by any means, Johan Santana has been far from dominant. He sports a 5-5 record through 16 starts and his only real problems have came from an increased walk rate and far fewer strikeouts.

Oliver Perez has been a massive joke and I hope we have seen the end of him, and John Maine was battered on a regular basis before his trip to the DL.

Still, the good far outweighs the bad so far in 2010.

If you would have told the Mets they would be 10 games over .500 at the start of July even though Santana could count his wins on one hand, you’d snap their arm off in a heartbeat.

Can the Mets Keep Pace With the Phillies

Philadelphia was the team to beat heading into 2010. They had been to back-to-back World Series and three consecutive postseasons and many pundits thought they were as strong as ever before.

The Phillies came out of the blocks pretty well through the first six weeks, establishing a 4.5-game lead in the NL East where nobody could really find any consistency. After dropping a series at home to the Red Sox in the third week of May, the Mets really helped put the breaks on the Phils.

New York blanked them for three consecutive games, and the division lead was gone just four days later. The Phillies have not even been a .500 team since that series, and it’s fair to say the Mets are holding their own.

Both teams have been dealing with injuries, and while the Mets hope to have Carlos Beltran back healthy after the All-Star break, the Phillies have just lost two of their infielders to injury, just a week after DL-ing catcher Carlos Ruiz and welcoming Jimmy Rollins back from his second stint on the shelf.

The Phillies will no doubt be there or there abouts at the end of the season, but right now, the Mets are keeping pace with the defending National League champs and then some.

Will Jason Bay Be Worth Four Years and $66 million?

Jason Bay is the seventh-highest earning Met on the payroll in 2010, and his salary will more than double next season. But is he earning his $8.6 million so far this season?

He came to Citi Field with a reputation as being a power hitter with a decent batting average and a little speed, but his lack of pop has been the talking point so far this season.

His .278 average is perfectly in line with his career average, and he’s running like it’s 2005 and he’s in a Pittsburgh jersey. He has learned pretty quickly how to utilize the spacious gaps and deep alleys in Flushing, and there’s every chance he could hit 40 doubles and double-digit triples.

But Omar Minaya didn’t bring him from Boston to hit doubles. It took him 20 games to hit his first home run this year and then 24 more games for his second. He only had four home runs on the season until he went deep twice against the Marlins on Monday, and it was the second time he has gone yard twice in a game.

Bay has never hit fewer than 25 home runs once in his whole career, but he’s barely on pace for 10 even if he stays healthy.

You’ve got to think that some of those doubles will eventually turn to home runs, but even if you include his plus defense as a big redeeming feature, he’s still not living up to his billing quite yet. It will come, there’s no doubt about that, but his swing isn’t quite paying back the hype.

Just How Badly Will the Mets Struggle Without Carlos Beltran?

When Beltran had his knee surgery in the offseason, one of the biggest questions centered around whether the Mets outfield would be able to tread water until he returned.

The outfield has actually been pretty solid, but nobody would have guessed that it would be Angel Pagan leading the way. While Bay has struggled with his power, as detailed above, and Jeff Francoeur has been on a rollercoaster of ups and downs, switch-hitting Pagan has commanded centerfield with All-Star efficiency.

He’s batting at a .302 clip and stealing bases, and he’s had more RBI than, Jeff Francoeur, Rob Barajas, and Ike Davis.

It’s pretty impressive when you consider he’s been batting leadoff, second, and sixth—hardly prime run-producing spots.

Ironically though, it is Pagan who may be shifted to the bench once Beltran returns, even though he has arguably been the Mets most valuable player in the first half of this season.

Pagan has been a pleasant surprise and he’s been keeping the Mets afloat when others have been struggling. The answer to this question could have been very different had Pagan been a below-average replacement. As it currently is, he’s one of the biggest reasons that the Mets are in touching distance in the NL East.

Will Jerry Manuel Still Have a Job By [inset month here]?

Whichever month you chose, the chances are that you would have said ‘no’. Sceptics might have said that he wouldn’t make it through April. Others might have thought that he was ripe for the chop after a four-game sweep in Florida mid May.

How about batting Reyes third, getting K-Rod to warm up against the Yankees only to bring in Raul Valdes to melt down, or telling beat reporters his team was unprepared to go against Livan Hernandez?

For all the calls for his head on a plate, Manuel has kept things in check and he’s ensured the Mets house is in order. There’s no infighting like in Chicago or players dogging after balls like in Florida or Tampa.

This isn’t 2009 and the Mets actually look like a team that could put teams on their backs in the playoffs.

There’s no reason to ditch Manuel now if the team was unwilling to part ways with him in May, and if the Mets get better as is expected when Beltran returns, there’s more than a punchers’ chance that he will make it through the season.

He’s going to be on a hot seat whenever the team slumps, but for now I think it’s fair to say that Manuel and the Mets are outperforming everyone’s preseason expectations.

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