Kuzul

After the first 44 games of the 2010 baseball season, the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves twenty games over .500 and six games ahead of the New York Yankees – who, oh by the way, have the third best record in baseball – in the AL East.

Strange things are afoot in Major League Baseball, and not just in Tampa Bay. Here is a look at the Top Ten Most Shocking Statistics in Baseball so far in the 2010 season.

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This season is Roy Halladay’s first in the National League after spending his entire career to this point with the Toronto Blue Jays. Given his early start, Halladay may prove to one day be one of the greatest inter-league crossovers of all time. But this begs the question: who are the best players to have played in both the American and National League.

Of course, in a very literal sense, the greatest player to ever play in both leagues was Babe Ruth, who spent the last 28 games of his career with the Boston Braves. For our purposes, we’ll only look at players with significant miles logged in each league.

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When a pitcher has a bad outing, you shrug it off. If you get lit up by the Colorado Rockies, you definitely let it go.  Even for a Cy Young Award winner, a bad outing is part of the game.

But when a dominant pitcher gets tagged for eight runs in less than four innings against the team his old catcher plays for, you know what’s going on.

Updating a story we’ve been following all year over at BaseballEvolution.com , Colorado Rockies catcher Miguel Olivo had the day off on Sunday as the Rockies faced the Kansas City Royals, his old team, and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. 

However, Olivo probably didn’t sit this game out; Olivo almost certainly played the role of “special assistant to the manager” for this one, sitting right next to Rockies manager Jim Tracy and giving him everything he knows about his former teammate.

Olivo, of course, was Greinke’s catcher for all of 2009, when Greinke dominated the AL and won the Cy Young Award despite playing for the AL’s second worst team.  The Royals, for whatever reason, chose not to bring Olivo back in 2010, and now Olivo is the primary catcher for this year’s breakout pitcher in the National League, Ubaldo Jimenez. 

Meanwhile, Greinke is now 1-5 on the season with a hardly Cy Young caliber 3.57 ERA.

How bad was Greinke’s outing on Sunday? 

By Greinke standards, horrendous. 

This was only the second time since Greinke became the Royals’ ace that he failed to go five innings, and the first time since July, 2008. 

His eight runs allowed was the most since June, 2008, and it was the first time since 2007 that Greinke failed to strikeout more than one batter.

That the Rockies faced off against the Royals at all this season is deliciously ironic for Olivo.  

What were the odds of Kansas City and Colorado facing each other in 2010, the season that Olivo joined the Rockies after being shunned by the Royals? 

These two teams play in different leagues, and had only played 12 games against each other—ever—coming into this season.

Nevertheless, the baseball gods intervened, and it worked in Olivo’s favor.

So, in addition to Ubaldo Jimenez’s breakout season and the no-hitter Jimenez pitched earlier this year, you can go ahead and add Zack Grienke’s worst game in three years to Miguel Olivo’s list of accomplishments with the 2010 Colorado Rockies.

I would imagine the Kansas City Royals will have trouble shrugging this one off.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Perhaps the baseball gods have intervened. Perhaps he did it on purpose. Perhaps I’m making too big a deal out of this.

Derek Jeter has not scored a run in six straight games, which, for a guy who scores constantly, and did score a run in eight straight games earlier this season, is probably one of the longest stretches of his career.

However, the New York Yankees shortstop and leadoff man has been hitting the ball — over the last 11 games he has 15 hits in 51 at-bats, including a 3-for-5 effort against the New York Mets Sunday night. It was Jeter’s second 3-for-5 in four games. Since he last scored a run, Jeter has nine hits.

So, what’s the point of all this?

With nine hits since his last run scored, Derek Jeter now has exactly 2,800 hits, and exactly 1,600 runs, which is an awfully pretty pair of stats (hurry, and check it out at BaseballReference.com today before he ruins it by getting another hit and/or run).

Not that the Baseball World needs another reminder of Jeter’s greatness — and not that I am in the habit of  heaping praise upon Jeter — but check out the list of guys in the “1,600 Runs/2,800 Hits” Club:

The worst player on this list is Lou Brock, and he was pretty great. So Jeter really is starting to enter some rarified air.

Frankly, as a Jeter Hater, it is really starting to bother me that I am starting to accept that he is really is quite great.

What would be really great would be if Jeter could score exactly 100 more runs in the time it takes him to get exactly 200 more hits, so we could see 3,000/1,700.

Perhaps we can convince the baseball gods to allow it.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is the co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Is Mariano Rivera a future Hall of Famer?  How about Albert Pujols?  What about Joe Mauer?

Playing the Hall of Fame prediction game is always fun.  Bill James likes to analyze future Hall of Famers from a percentage standpoint.  I have never stuck around long enough to figure out how he says things like “Todd Helton has a 67 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame,” but he does it, and so there it is.

Back in the 1980s, I forget when it was, but I believe it was in the spring of 1987 that James issued the following one-sentence analysis of Dale Murphy’s chances of being elected into the Hall of Fame:

“Dale Murphy will be in the Hall of Fame.”

Obviously, as we all now know, Dale Murphy is not, in fact, in the Hall of Fame, and never will be. 

Obviously, in the spring of 1987, Murphy looked like one of the great talents in the game—a speedy center-fielder with power who, at the age of 30, already had over 250 home runs (a big deal back then), 800 RBI, two MVPs, and five Gold Gloves. 

It would have been crazy to think Murphy would NOT be in the Hall of Fame.

Two years later, Murphy hit .226 with 24 home runs in a full season.  Two years after that, he hit .245 with 24 home runs.  Two years after that, he was all but done with baseball, at the age of 35, never having passed 400 home runs, and having watched his overall career stats tumble.

Thus, it occurs to me: When we ask whether a current player will one day be in the Hall of Fame, we are really asking one of three questions.

First, we are asking the Dale Murphy 1987 question: If this player continues on his expected career trajectory, will he one day be in the Hall of Fame?  Obviously, if Murphy could have remained productive into his mid-30s, he was Hall of Fame material.  He just unexpectedly stopped producing.

But the second, more exciting question, is what we’ll call the Sandy Koufax 1966 question.  Koufax, of course, retired at the age of 30 completely out of the blue after the 1966 season, on the heels of simply dominating baseball for five straight seasons.

Koufax was a no-doubter for the Hall six years later. 

So, the Sandy Koufax question is: If this player were to suddenly and without warning retire from baseball today, would he be a Hall of Famer?

At any given time, the Dale Murphy 1987 Hall of Famers far out-number the Sandy Koufax 1966 Hall of Famers, and this makes sense: The difference between a very good player and a Hall of Fame player is often the ability to be great for a long time.

The third question is the one we’ll call the Phil Niekro Question. 

Niekro, of course, is the only player ever to have fewer than 200 wins on his 40th birthday and then go on to win 300 games.  Thus, as one might imagine, when Phil Niekro turned 40 in 1979 (a season in which, by the way, he led the NL in wins AND losses, plus starts, complete games, innings, hits, home runs, walks, wild pitches, and batters faced), no one on earth thought he was destined for the Hall of Fame. 

But sure enough, by the time he retired nearly a decade later, he had 5,400 innings pitched and 318 wins, and he was eventually elected to the Hall of Fame.

So, the Phil Niekro 1979 question is: Can this player, who is not currently a Hall of Fame-caliber player, continue playing long enough to reach certain career milestones that will put him over the top?

The problem with Phil Niekro 1979 Hall of Famers is that you never know who these guys are until you get there.  Who knew 10 years ago that Jamie Moyer would still be pitching in 2010?

But I digress.

So, now that we have a framework for analyzing potential Hall of Famers, we don’t have to argue endlessly about whether a guy like Lance Berkman is a future Hall of Famer.  We know Berkman is a Murphy ’87 Hall of Famer, but not yet a Koufax ’66 Hall of Famer.

Here, then, is a list of 30 current major league players: the Top 10 Koufax ’66 Hall of Famers, the Top 10 Murphy ’87 Hall of Famers, and the Top 10 Nieko ’79 Hall of Famers.

Top 10 Sandy Koufax 1966 Hall of Famers

The guys who would be in right now if they retired tomorrow.

10. Albert Pujols

He became eligible when he began his 10th season this year.  He would be in if he was killed tomorrow by the mother of his six handicapped illegitimate children that he refused to acknowledge.

9. Ken Griffey, Jr.

“The Kid” has probably spent the most time on this list.  He’s been a Koufax ’66 gut since 1999, and despite all efforts to ruin his career, he still is. 

Actually, if someone would let him know this, maybe we could get him to retire.

8. Ivan Rodriguez

One of the greatest catchers ever.

7. Jim Thome

The only thing that could stop him now is steroid allegations.  He is this era’s Harmon Killebrew.

6. Chipper Jones

See Thome comment.  Substitute “Eddie Matthews” for “Harmon Killebrew.”

5. Derek Jeter

Love him or hate him, but they may rename the Hall of Fame after him.

4. Trevor Hoffman

Dude, you’re in; you won’t need 600 saves.  Hang it up.

3. Mariano Rivera

Certainly the greatest modern closer, and perhaps the greatest relief pitcher of all time.

2. Manny Ramirez

His personality is going to cost him some votes, but he may be one of the five greatest right-handed hitters of all time.

1. Alex Rodriguez

People hate him.  He makes too much money.  He used PEDs.  And he’s one of the four greatest non-first base infielders (Hornsby, Wagner, A-Rod) of all time.

Top 10 Dale Murphy 1987 Hall of Famers

Keep this up much longer, and you’re going straight to the Hall.

10. Andy Pettitte/Jorge Posada

Let’s face it: the “Big Four”—Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada—are probably already in, but neither Pettitte nor Posada have, strictly speaking, Hall of Fame-caliber numbers. 

If Pettitte has 500 more innings, a couple more playoff appearances, and gets to 250 wins, he’s there for sure.  If Posada gets to 1,000 runs, 250 home runs, and 1,000 RBI, he’s a lock.

9. Roy Halladay

Halladay is so “cusp.”  He probably already has the numbers to eventually be elected, but his numbers should be no doubt by the end of his current contract, the way he’s pitching.

8. Johan Santana

Three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, and two Cy Youngs essentially lands Santana in the David Cone/Bret Saberhagen range of pitchers.  Santana has all the skills, but needs more years.

7. Joe Mauer

Is he young?  Yes.  But if he stays healthy and continues to develop, he could be the greatest catcher of all time.  Seriously.

6. Chase Utley

Utley is only in his sixth full year, and needs two more seasons to even qualify, but his combination of hitting and defense at the second base position put him well ahead of the pace of Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg and future Hall of Famers Craig Biggio and Roberto Alomar.

5. Lance Berkman

His numbers are not exactly headed in a “I’m gonna be playing for five more years” direction, but if he does, he’s in.

4. Todd Helton

Had Helton put up the numbers he’s put up while playing in a ball park other than Coors’ Field, he’d be in the Koufax ’66 group.  As it is, he seems to be within range of some impressive career milestones to go with his amazing rate stats.

3. Vladimir Guerrero

A year ago, Vlad looked done, but he wisely left the Los Angeles Angels and signed on with baseball’s version of the fountain of youth, the Texas Rangers.  If he has a few more years in him, he’ll be a lock.

2. David Wright

Is this guy Howard Johnson, Scott Rolen, or Mike Schmidt?  I have no idea.  If he can just play the way he has so far for 10 more years, he’s a Hall of Famer.

1. Tim Lincecum

A really good debut year, followed by two dominant Cy Young seasons, followed by a so-far terrific fourth season, Lincecum is to this era, what Dwight Gooden was to the 1980s. 

Let’s hope no one introduces him to Darryl Strawberry.

Top 10 Phil Niekro 1979 Hall of Famers

Yeah, you could be in the Hall of Fame, if you’ve got 1,000 more hits in your 40-year-old bat, or 100 more wins in your 40-year-old arm.

10. David Ortiz

There is no way the 34-year-old Ortiz makes the Hall of Fame as a late-blooming designated hitter, unless he can hit 175 home runs to get to 500.

9. Johnny Damon  

No one has ever gotten to 3,000 hits and been left out of the Hall of Fame.  If the 36-year-old Damon can collect 550 more hits at the end of his career, neither will he.

8. Bobby Abreu  

Abreu will be in the sabermetrics Hall of Fame, but unless he has about 100 more doubles, 40 more home runs, 300 more RBI, and 50 more stolen bases, I suspect he will be this generation’s Bobby Bonds.

7. Jason Giambi

Currently a pinch-hitting specialist with the Rockies, Giambi would need to hit 90 more home runs and get to 500 to even sniff the Hall, what with his PEDs admission and his meager career totals.

6. Jim Edmonds

A surprisingly compelling Hall of Fame candidate at this point. His total resume does not leap out at you, but now that he has come back after missing all of 1999 and looks refreshed, what if he plays five more seasons, gets to 420-430 home runs, scores 1,400 runs, and drives in 1,300 RBI?

5. Paul Konerko

An inconsistent, overrated, oafish, sometimes power hitter, Konerko nevertheless has 340 home runs at the age of 34 and currently leads the NL.  What if he plays until he’s 45 and hits 600 dongs?

4. Andruw Jones

Jones has probably spent time in all three of these categories.  Had he retired after the 2005 season—when he hit his 300th home run, led the NL in home runs and RBI, hit 51 home runs, and won his seventh Gold Glove at the age of 28—he would have been a Koufax ’67 guy. 

Had he continued his career trajectory of 2007, when at the age of 30 he appeared to be locked in for 500 home runs, he would have been a Murphy guy. 

Now, he has spent three seasons playing like he is already 40 years old.  He needs a Ruben Sierra-style comeback, and it needs to last long enough to get him to some big numbers.

3. Tim Hudson

Kind of the Bert Blyleven of his own era.  Hudson has not been on the map as a great pitcher since 2003, and probably needs to pitch a nice long time to get into Hall contention.

2. Edgar Renteria

If Renteria plays 10 more years and gets to 3,000 hits and 2,000 runs scored, people won’t even mention what a mediocre player he is as they vote him in on the first ballot.

1. Jamie Moyer

Clearly a lackluster pitcher, he has given us no indication that he can’t keep limiting opponents to five runs per game and picking up wins for 10 more years.  He is 47 years old and needs 37 wins to get to 300. 

Start the clock.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This weekend, the Boston Red Sox are in town to face off against the Phillies as Interleague Play gets underway.  Between them, the Sox and Phils have four World Series appearances and nine playoff appearances between them since 2003.  The Red Sox and Phillies also have something else in common: they have both enjoyed the services of one Pedro Martinez.

Someone asked me recently about the most dominant pitcher of my lifetime.  I hemmed and hawed for a while, talking about single-season dominance vs. career longevity, wins vs. ERA, strikeouts vs. hits allowed.  I hit upon the perennial Cy Young Award winners of my lifetime – Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux – and touched for a moment on John Smoltz and Curt Schilling.

Finally, aware that I was stammering, I got quiet.  There is only one answer to that question.

The most dominating pitcher of my lifetime was Pedro Martinez.

There are lots of stats to harp on when it comes to Pedro Martinez – the ERA titles, the strikeouts, the wins – but I like to make the Pedro point this way:

It is not a sensational statement to say that, since the invention of the designated hitter in 1973, pitchers have succeeded more easily in the National League than in the American League.  The 2010 exposition of this phenomenon is Roy Halladay, who has been lights out – to an even greater degree than usual – in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies.

We don’t need Roy Halladay to prove this point, though – almost without exception, pitchers who have pitched in both the National League and the American League since 1973 have fared significantly better in the National League.

There are a handful of notable exceptions to this rule, and none greater than Pedro Martinez.

Pedro Martinez is the Notable Exception. Career National League ERA: 3.32. Career American League ERA: 2.52.

At the worst part of the Expansion Era, and in the worst part of the Steroid Era, Pedro Martinez left the pitcher-friendly National League and went to hitter-friendly Fenway Park, in the hitter-friendly American League, and just dominated. Pedro essentially said to the American League, “What, you have nine hitters instead of eight? That’s fine – just one more legitimate batter for me to dominate.”

After posting a ridiculous 1.90 ERA for the Expos in 1997, Pedro went to the American League, and it took him three full seasons to best that mark in 2000 with a 1.74 ERA. In seven seasons in Boston, Pedro pitched six seasons as if he didn’t even notice a different in leagues.

No amount of hyperbole does justice to what Pedro did in those years in Boston better than the following statistic: in his first six seasons in Boston, Pedro led the major leagues in ERA four times, and in all four of those seasons, the runner up was pitching against National League hitters – Randy Johnson in 1999 (2.07 vs. 2.49), Kevin Brown in 2000 (1.74 vs. 2.58), Randy Johnson in 2002 (2.26 vs. 2.32), and Jason Schmidt in 2003 (2.22 vs. 2.34).

In case you need more, how about this: in 2001, he made only 18 starts due to injury, but his 2.39 ERA would have led the majors ahead of Johnson’s 2.49 and Schilling’s 2.98, and he was the only American Leaguer with at least 18 starts with an ERA under 3.00; the AL leader in 2001 was Freddy Garcia with a 3.05.

In 2000, his 1.74 was the only ERA in the major leagues better than 2.00, the only ERA in the major leagues below 2.50, and the only American League pitcher in the top ten in the major leagues. He was also almost two runs better than the next ranking American League pitcher, Roger Clemens, whose ERA was 3.70, and he was one of five American League pitchers with an ERA under 4.00.

In 2003, when Pedro led the majors with a 2.22 ERA, he was one of three American Leaguers to finish in top ten in the major leagues, the only American Leaguer better than 2.50, and one of three American Leaguers better than 3.00.

If we are going to be intellectually honest, then we have to point out the following fact: in 2002, when Pedro’s 2.26 ERA led the major leagues (vs. Johnson’s 2.32), two other Red Sox also finished among the top six major leaguers – Derek Lowe with a 2.58, and Tim Wakefield with a 2.81. This tells us that pitching in the American League and Fenway Park was not uniquely difficult in 2002. That this fact would be a blemish on Pedro’s record only demonstrates the enormity of what Pedro Martinez was accomplishing in his time with the Red Sox.

Pedro didn’t just dominate baseball in a “relative-to-his-league” sense in those years. Consider the following historical figures he put up in those seasons: his strikeout-to-walk ratio in 1999 was the ninth best of all time, and his ratio from 2000 is the sixth best of all time. His 313 strikeouts in 1999 are tied for 44th best all time. His hits allowed per nine innings in 2000 is the fourth best of all time, behind Luis Tiant in 1968 (notorious pitcher season), and two Nolan Ryan seasons.

His strikeouts per nine innings in 1999 are the second best of all time behind Randy Johnson; his total in 2000 is ninth best. His WHIP in 2000 was the best of all time, ahead of three guys from the 19th Century, five guys from the deadball era, and Greg Maddux facing National League hitters in 1995. And his ERA in 2000 was the tenth best since 1920, but get this: only four of the remaining top nine came since 1973, and all by National League pitchers.

Simply put, no pitcher has ever been as dominant over a six year period as Pedro Martinez was with the Boston Red Sox from 1998 to 2003, ever.

I doubt we’ll ever see anything like it again.

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Ivan Rodriguez, in what can only be described as a renaissance season, currently leads the National League in Double Plays Grounded Into.

But does that really matter?

The Double Plays Grounded Into statistic has been kept in the National League since 1933, and in the American League since 1939.

Obviously, double plays can hurt a team, because it involves going from at least one runner on base, with less than two outs to eliminating, the runner. They often end the inning. Double Plays are almost always rally killers.

While a double play is always bad, and any player who hits into one should hang his head on the way back to the dugout, I am still skeptical.

Does tallying the number of double plays a player hits into necessarily tells us something about that player?

Or, does it tell us something about his team?

It seems easier for teams to avoid hitting into double plays by stealing bases. Starting the runners with a hitter’s count, executing hit-and-runs, bunting guys over, or even balancing the lineup so that a lefty comes up behind a guy who gets on base frequently could impact the statistics.

The 1983 Red Sox provided the best example of double plays being attributed to a team, not a player.

On Sept. 28 of that year, Tony Armas grounded into his 31st double play of the season, which at the time was tied with Bobby Doerr for the second worst total ever. Jackie Jenson hit into 32 in 1954.

Four days later, on Oct. 2, Jim Rice matched Armas’ feat by grounding into his 31st double play.

So, who should be blamed for Armas and Rice’s astronomical double play numbers, in the same season no less. The players, or the team?

After all, double plays are a team effort, right?

A little investigation sheds more light on the issue. The ’83 Red Sox featured a 43-year-old Carl Yastrzemski, who could barely run, a 31-year-old Dwight Evans, who was hardly fleet-footed, Rice, never accused of being fast, and a 25-year-old Wade Boggs, who posted a .444 on-base percentage, comprised largely of walks and singles.

This Red Sox team was probably one of the most double-play-prone teams of all time. Of course, Armas and Rice hit into tons of them.

To be sure, let’s not give too much credit to either player—particularly Armas, who hit 36 home runs, but had a .707 OPS and a .254 on-base percentage.

At the same time, doesn’t this lineup explain more about why Rice and Armas were two of the worst double play batters of all time?

 Jim Rice’s career provides further information.

Prior to Boggs’s arrival in 1982, Rice’s career high for double plays was 21. He hit into 20 or more only once.

But, Boggs’ combination of high on-base percentage and no power made him the perfect lead-off guy in Boston, despite his lack of speed.

Suddenly, Rice had four of the worst double play seasons of all time, hitting into 29 in 1982, 31 in 1983, breaking the record with 36 in 1984, and narrowly missing the record again with 35 in 1985, despite missing 22 games.

The Red Sox were penciling a slow singles hitter in the lead-off position in the 1980s. That move was reflected in Jim Rice’s double play totals.

It is not like Jim Rice and Wade Boggs are the only example of a guy suffering a high double play number because of the player hitting in front of him.

We noted above that, after 1983, Armas and Rice were two of the four worst double play batters of all time, along with Bobby Doerr and Jackie Jenson.

Guess what those two guys had in common?

In 1949, Bobby Doerr set the then-major league record by grounding into 31 double plays while playing for the Boston Red Sox. In 1954, Jackie Jensen broke Doerr’s record by grounding into 32 double plays, also while playing for the Boston Red Sox.

Each of those players set the record for double plays grounded into while hitting behind Ted Williams, perhaps the best combination of on-base percentage and slow base-running.

Should Doerr’s and Jensen performances be considered a reflection upon them, or a reflection upon Ted Williams?

Williams and Boggs aren’t the only guys who indirectly created high double play totals for their teammates.

In fact, of the 59 different seasons in which a player has hit into 27 or more doubles, the vast majority of them came on teams that featured players with tremendously high on-base percentages.

Just take a look at the names of the guys who were teammates of the “27 or more double plays club.” Most of these guys are on the Who’s Who of great on-base machines:

There is some really fun stuff here. For example:

– Elmer Valo and Ferris Fain of the Philadelphia Athletics combined to put two different guys on the list, Billy Hitchcock with 30 in 1950 and Dave Philley with 29 in 1952.

– Larry Walker and Todd Helton also combined to put two different guys on here, Todd Zeile with 27 in 2002 and Jay Payton with 27 in 2003.

– Rafael Palmeiro was a teammate to three of these guys: Ivan Rodriguez (31) in 1999, Cal Ripken, Jr. (28) in 1996, and Julio Franco (27) in 1989.

– Frank Thomas also appears to have put three players on the list: George Bell in 1992, Magglio Ordonez in 2000, and Paul Konerko in 2002.

– Lance Berkman put Brad Ausmus (2002), Carlos Lee (2007), and Miguel Tejada (2008) on the list.

– Keep in mind, my point is that a high-OBP teammate is often to blame; sometimes, like when Vlad Guerrero played on a team whose OBP leader was Chone Figgins with a .367, the batter has only himself to blame.

– Yaz hit into 30 double plays when the team-leading OBP was Eddie Broussard with .372.

– Ernie Lombardi’s 30 double plays in 1938 seem solely attributable to himself, as the team leader in OBP that year was Ival Goodman at .368.

There is, of course, a reason this is all important.

The value, or should we say damage, caused by a double play can be hugely different, depending on how we look at the double play.

If I tell you that Player A hit into 30 double plays, you might be inclined to think Player A isn’t a good player. You might be right, but you might be wrong.

If I then tell you that Player B has a .400 on-base percentage, but doesn’t run very fast, and hit ahead of Player A, and as a result Player A also had 130 RBI, you might say that the difference between the average number of double plays hit into and the number Player A hit into is the cost of doing business with a guy who gets on base 40 percent of the time—and I think you’d be right.

I think it might be a more telling statistic if we counted the number of times a player hit into a double play, but also the number of time a guy was the other out for another player’s double play. That way, we’d know whether a high number of double plays reflects the player or reflects the team.

Or perhaps there is a simpler explanation—the total number of double plays doesn’t tell us nearly as much as the number of double plays divided by the number of double play opportunities would. If Jim Rice hit into 31 double plays but came to bat with a runner on first base 300 times in a season, I think we wouldn’t condemn him as much as a guy who hit into 25 double plays while batting third behind Juan Pierre and Neifi Perez.

Perhaps we’re looking at double plays as a counting stat when we should be converting it into a rate stat. That might be a bit more illuminating.

Asher lives in Philadelphia, PA and is the co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

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It was one of those humbling moments that reminds you why the fans pay to go to the game and sit in the 400-level while the coaches get paid to go to the game and sit in the dugout.

In the Phillies’ half of the sixth inning of a 1-1 game against the Cubs on Tuesday afternoon, Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins came to the plate with two outs and runners on second and third.  

The infield was playing back with first base open because of a rare tagging-up from first by Chase Utley on a Ryan Howard’s sacrifice fly.  So, when Rollins ran the count to 3-0, I suddenly had a brilliant idea.

Taking in the afternoon game on a beautiful day with five buddies, I started telling each of them “Wow, this would be a great moment for a suicide squeeze.” 

The timing struck me as perfect—3-0 count, two outs, first base open, infield playing back, the speedy Rollins somehow still batting fifth in the order—and I became absolutely convinced that we were about to see the most exciting play in baseball, the two-out suicide squeeze.

Just for good measure, and not a moment too soon, I said, “Whatever you do, don’t let Rollins swing away.”

There are two types of home runs in major league baseball—the ones you watch excitedly hoping they can get out, and the ones you know are out of the park the moment they leave the bat.  Rollins hit one of the latter into the right field seats, and the Phillies had a 4-1 lead.

Coaches 1, Asher 0.

Regarding how much smarter than me he is, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel expounded on letting Rollins swing away on 3-0.  “I let guys hit 3-0, especially guys who are good hitters,” Manuel said. “It builds confidence…I wouldn’t be sitting here now if I couldn’t teach guys how to hit 3-0. I’ve had great success letting guys hit 3-0.”

Not that they needed it, but the coaches got another on me in the eighth inning when, with one out and Utley standing on second representing the go-ahead run, Raul Ibanez hit a single to right field that Kosuke Fukudome got to just as Utley was arriving at third.  I don’t think I yelled, but I definitely said out loud, “Hold the runner!” 

Nevertheless, despite my advice, the Phillies third base coach waived Utley around and he stepped on home plate a step-and-a-half ahead of the throw and tag.

Coaches 2, Asher 0.  Ballgame.

But seriously, folks, it is time to ask: Are we seeing a new Jimmy Rollins? 

Rollins is certainly no stranger to home run power—remember, he hit 30 home runs in 2007, his MVP year , and he’s hit 20 or more two other times—but so far in 2010 his slugging percentage is .658 and his OPS is 1.116.  These are not numbers we’re used to seeing.

Rollins also seems, perhaps for the first time, comfortable hitting somewhere other than the leadoff spot.  In what is admittedly a small sample size, Rollins has an .886 OPS with four RBI and three runs in the four games since he returned from a month-long absence to nurse his ailing calf muscle.  

Yesterday, Rollins batted fifth for Jayson Werth, who got the day off in favor of Ross “He was in a nuclear accident and so he” Gload.

Could this be the dawn of the rest of Jimmy Rollins career? 

Would Jimmy be content to spend his 30s as a slightly above-average power hitter, providing protection in the order for Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and (if they can re-sign him) Jayson Werth?

Not likely.

Charlie Manuel has indicated that Rollins will probably be back in the leadoff spot at some point during this weekend’s series against the Boston Red Sox, and Jimmy has indicated that, despite his success over the last couple of days, this experiment in the batting order is probably short-lived. 

“I have at-bats when I still feel a little out of whack and others where I can feel my legs underneath me and my swing going in the right path,” Rollins said after the game. “The rest of it is just feeling my legs underneath me when I’m hitting and feeling the bat speed. When the bat speed is there, I think I’ll be ready.”

Manuel said he thinks Rollins needs more at-bats and dropping him down in the order allows him to be more aggressive and take more swings. “I look at Jimmy as our leadoff hitter, and there are a lot of reasons why I look at him that way,” Manuel said. “He is our leadoff hitter.”

Oh well. 

The new Jimmy Rollins will just have to wait. 

Frankly, I’d like to see Rollins get an extensive try-out in the five-hole to see if perhaps the Phillies can’t save a little money by not giving Jayson Werth the $20 million contact he’ll probably want when he becomes a free agent after this season.

If Jimmy can give Utley and Howard the same protection that Werth gives them, maybe the Phillies could spend that money somewhere else.

Of course, what do I know?  I’m just a guy sitting in the 400-level.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is the co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com .

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In 2010, Derek Jeter is playing his 16th season at shortstop for the New York Yankees.

He is already the Yankees’ all-time leader in hits, he already has five World Series championships, and he has won four Gold Gloves.

Soon, Jeter will sign what will likely be the final contract of his illustrious career, reach the 3,000 hit plateau, and begin to move up the all time leader board in career hits and runs.

So, naturally, the question arises: where does Derek Jeter rank amongst the all time great shortstops?

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For once, Jamie Moyer knows what it takes to pitch well and lose. Oh, the irony.

Moyer was brilliant for the Phillies as they faced the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night, allowing only two earned runs on four hits and one walk in seven innings, while striking out seven and lowering his ERA to 4.30, in the rematch of the teams that faced each other back in 1986 when Moyer made his major league debut against Steve Carlton.

Moyer, who has spent the vast majority of his Phillies career collecting wins despite giving up four to six runs per game, found himself on the losing end of a pitchers’ duel with Tom Gorzelanny of the Cubs. 

Gorzelanny scattered three hits and two walks over six and two-thirds scoreless innings while striking out five.  The Phillies failed to capitalize on an inning and a third of John Grabow and Carlos Zambrano, two of the worst performing Cubs of the 2010 season, scoring only one run off of Grabow.  Carlos Marmol pitched a scoreless ninth for his seven save.

This marks the second night in a row that the usually high-powered Phillies offense failed to take advantage of a gem from one of their starting pitchers; on Tuesday night, Roy Halladay took the loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates despite a complete game effort during which he allowed only two runs.

Meanwhile, both the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals won tonight, picking up a game each in the standings. The Phils now lead the Marlins by three games and the Nationals by four. 

The Nationals also got good news from Triple-A Syracuse, as Stephen Strasburg pitched six and a third scoreless innings, striking out nine, walking two and allowing three hits.  Strasburg has yet to give up a run at Triple-A in 18 and a third innings.

Meanwhile, this was the Phillies third game since the return of Jimmy Rollins, and the Phils are now 1-2 in those games. 

In Rollins’ first game back, the Phillies won 12-2, but they have scored only three runs in the two games since then. 

Curiously, Rollins has batted third in two of these games and tonight he batted sixth.  During the last two games, Shane Victorino has batted leadoff and gone 1-for-8.

The ability of the Philadelphia Phillies to annually be one of the elite offensive teams in baseball despite having a leadoff man in Rollins with a .330 on-base percentage has always been befuddling, but for whatever reason, it has always worked.  So, here’s an idea – why don’t we move Rollins back to the top of the order, move Victorino back to seventh, and enjoy the rest of the season?

The Phillies play the Cubs in a business man’s special tomorrow at Citizens’ Bank Park at 1:05pm. 

The Phils will send Joe Blanton to the mound to face off against Ryan Dempster.  Hopefully Blanton can get some run support and avoid the same fate as Roy Halladay and—as odd as this is to say—Jamie Moyer by losing a well-pitched game.

Asher B. Chancey is the co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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