Kuzul

The Tampa Bay Rays are having an identity crisis.

During baseball’s first six weeks, no team was hotter. Now during the last six weeks, very few teams have been colder.

As it stands, the Rays have fallen from first to third in the AL East. But thanks to their hot start, only three games separate them from the top.

Still, what happens if this free fall doesn’t stop in the next two weeks?

Could the Rays become sellers instead of buyers by the time the July 31st trading deadline rolls around?

Rays general manager Andrew Friedman could be shrewd enough to try to pull it off.

And it would be the smart play.

If the attendance is lagging now, imagine what it’ll be if the Rays are out of the chase. The payroll is already unsustainable, and it might be wise to shave money off the payroll now to help for next season.

Let’s face it. The Rays have to hit it just right to be able to compete with Boston and New York.

If this team cannot cut it, the Rays need to use every resource they have to try to compete for next year.

Next year those resources will probably not include Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Rafael Soriano.

It may not even include Jason Bartlett, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and possibly Matt Garza and James Shields.

The Rays could wait and collect draft picks to replenish their elite farm system as their free agents move on to their new teams. Or, they could restart now by handpicking their return rather than chancing it in the draft.

Here’s a few ideas for the Rays if they decide to retool at the deadline.

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Only one half game separates the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays from the New York Yankees. The once red-hot Rays have finally cooled off after owning a six game lead over New York in late May. The division is up for grabs for the first time in two months.

In 2008 the Rays and Red Sox battled for the division all the way to the last week of the season.

With the Yankees alive and kicking this year, it should make for an even more exciting finish this season.

Which team can address its flaws? Who could they make a play at the deadline? The GM that answers these questions most positively will likely find themselves on top at the end of the season.

Here’s a look at what each team will be looking for at the trading deadline.

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The Tampa Bay payroll is at an all-time high. The Rays have numerous big-name free agents at the end of the season who, barring a new stadium built in the next six months, they will not have the money to keep.

Others, like shortstop Jason Bartlett, will most likely be traded because the Rays have younger and better options available (see Reid Brignac).

This year is the end of the line for how the Rays are currently built. But make no mistake—this year’s team is the best squad the Rays have ever put on the field, including their 2008 World Series run.

But will it be good enough?

The Rays started out unsustainably hot, and in June, they have cooled off. Considerably. An 8-9 record midway through the month, and a 10-15 record since May 23, does not a playoff team make.

At May 23 the Rays led the Yankees by six games and Boston by 8.5. Now the Rays have fallen out of first place for the first time in two months and are tied with the Red Sox for second.

Their hitting has been a mess. The Rays have failed to score more than three runs in a game in 50 percent of their games in the last month. Their pitching has been atrocious. In the month of June they support a 5.96 ERA. Their Gold Glove defense has also taken a step back.

But just as the Rays can’t be a .700 team, neither are they a sub-.500 team.

As the Rays emerge from their slump, the question is, where do they need the most help to fight off the Yankees and Red Sox?

Enter Prince Fielder.

The Rays’ pitching rotation is unfortunately going through a collective slump. But James Shields, the Rays ace, is off to a career start. Second to Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, Shields leads the league in three-pitch strikeouts. Shields is also tied with Seattle’s Cliff Lee for the highest percentage of swinging strikes. In other words, Shields has had great stuff.

Matt Garza has been inconsistent, but Jeff Niemann is fourth in the AL in quality starts. This doesn’t even count David Price, who is tied for first in the AL in ERA (2.45) and wins (10). While Wade Davis has shown signs of improvement (three ER or fewer in last two starts, 12:1 K/BB), the Rays have Jeremy Hellickson (9-2, 2.33 ERA in AAA) waiting in Durham.

This is what leads us to Prince Fielder.

The main point ESPN made about awaiting a Rays demise was their unbelievable average with men in scoring position. As the offense has been struggling to score runs, this is the one area where the Rays will need some help.

The Rays do not have a DH. Almost a month ago they designated Pat Burrell for assignment. Replacement Hank Blalock has done his best to make Rays fans believe Burrell had never left. Outside of Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, this team is void of power.

Someone like Baltimore’s Luke Scott or the White Sox’s Paul Konerko would be nice, but Fielder is the top prize.

And the Rays have the resources to make the big splash.

This is where Wade Davis comes in. No team willing to be buyers at the deadline has a pitching prospect like Davis to offer. Most GMs when they have to sell a high-end player crave a return that offers an MLB-ready player. Instant gratification is the best way to soothe frustrated fans and owners.

Davis is the best MLB-ready pitching prospect in the majors. He’s already in an MLB rotation and is holding his own in the tough AL East. If he can pitch in the AL East, he can pitch anywhere. Milwaukee, which is desperate for pitching, would love to pair Davis with Yovani Gallardo for the next five-plus seasons. Milwaukee wouldn’t get a better offer for Fielder.

The Rays already have Hellickson in waiting and can replace Davis without missing a beat.

Nearly halfway through the season, it’s a three-team race in the AL East. The Rays need a push to keep up and surpass the Evil Empires. Adding a cleanup hitter like Fielder would boost their chances immensely.

And it might bring the Rays to their second World Series in three years.

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If only the baseball draft was like the NFL draft.  Fans get so excited by the sight of Mel Kiper Jr.’s hair that they can almost not contain themselves.  They see their teams picking a player they hope can help their team win this year.

Baseball fan’s dreams are a little more longer term.

No, unless your last name is Strasburg, teams don’t typically see a quick return on their investment.  Even contract negotiations can push the soon-to-be player’s minor league debut into the next season.  Add that to the stat that maybe one out of five make it to the majors, and you have fans that don’t know quite what to do with the draft.

But it doesn’t mean you can’t dream big.

The Tampa Bay Rays only need to look at the current NL Cy Young leader as how big they can dream.  In 1995 the Toronto Blue Jays selected high school pitcher Roy Halladay with the 17th overall pick.  It took nearly four years to see any return on their investment.

But what a return it was.

Now, let’s be realistic.  The odds of selecting a Roy Halladay with this year’s 17th overall pick are not that good.  But if the Rays want to continue to be a successful franchise, it’s important for this pick and many more to turn out well.

The draft is the lifeline of this franchise.

Even if they can’t find the next Roy Halladay, maybe they can find the next James Shields (16th round), John Jaso (12th round), Desmond Jennings (10th round), Carl Crawford (2nd round), Reid Brignac (2nd round), Wade Davis (3rd round), and, well, you get the drift.

Tonight, the Rays dream big.

And fans dream Roy Halladay big.

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It has been an amazing quarter season for the Tampa Bay Rays. Many wonder if they can keep this up. But when you dig into the reasons behind the Rays success, this has been a few years in the making. And it sure appears it can be sustained.

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the most home grown teams in all of baseball. Nearly every single player is a result of the Rays drafting. Take a look at each player and see how this team has been comprised.

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A quarter of the way into the 2010 season, the Yankees are on pace for a 101 win season.  They lead the majors in runs scored.  Their offense is still the feared Bronx Bombers.

So why does it feel like tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays is a “must win?”

Baseball fans would say it’s only May.  Yankees fans would say check with them come September.  But Rays fans might say divisions can be won and lost in the first six weeks.

A loss tonight and the Yankees fall behind five games to the league-leading Rays.  That’s a sizable lead in such a short amount of time.  But that’s not a knock on the Yankees, instead it’s a compliment and acknowledgment of the Rays.

The Rays have the MLB’s best pitching in the first quarter of the season.  Their depth showed last night when their No. 5 rookie starter, Wade Davis, out-pitched the $82 million man, A.J. Burnett.

Sure, Yankees fans could argue how beat up they are.  Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, Marcus Thames (among others) have spent time in the “day-to-day” area.  But the Rays have also been without Kelly Shoppach, Matt Joyce, J.P. Howell, and just designated-for-assignment the ineffective Pat Burrell.

So why is this a “must win” for the Bronx Bombers?

You never want to get swept at home, even if it’s only a two game set.  You don’t want to fall too far behind any team in your division.  Baseball is a game all about pacing.  But you don’t want your mindset to be one constantly needing to play catch up.

Sometimes you never catch up.

The Yankees have history on their side.  In 2005, the Yanks were in fourth place in the AL East, 16-19, 6.5 games behind the Orioles on May 12. They finished 95-67, good enough to share first place with the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles finished fourth with a 74-88 record. In 2007, the Yankees hit May 12 in third place, seven games behind the Red Sox, with a 17-18 record. They went 77-50 the rest of the way and captured the wild card.

And the team this year already boasts the second best record in baseball.

The problem is, the team with the best record also lies in their division.

It may only be May, but there will be some long summer nights if the Yankees fall too far behind.

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Is April gone already?  Last year, it couldn’t end soon enough.  The Rays 2008 World Series hangover left them 9-14 at April’s end, leaving Rays fans searching for the aspirin.  The Rays would never recover.

Lesson Learned.

The Rays capped off the first month of the season with their best start in team history.  The offense pummelled other pitchers into frequent early showers.  The starting pitching led the AL in ERA.  And for the most part, the bullpen shut the door.

But have the Rays finally started to cool off?

With Kansas City coming into town last weekend, many expected the Rays to steamroll another sub .500 team.  After the first game, it looked like that’s exactly what would happen.  Then all of a sudden the offense looked like someone you would see on the side of a milk carton.  Once the offense did its best missing person’s act (11 runs in the first game, five runs in last three games), the Rays struggled to tie the series.

Warning Sign?

There is no way the Rays could keep up the offensive pace they were on.  While critics will point to the Kansas City series, the Rays were still strong in that series.  The starting pitching was just as excellent.  The bullpen was pretty good. 

But this first month does point out the obvious.

The Rays need to keep up this pace to hold off the pinstripe powerhouse of New York.  Quietly, the New York Yankees have also gotten off to a excellent start.  Currently the Yankees are 17-8 and only one game behind the Rays.

If the Rays are going to contend for their second division crown in three years, this cannot be just a good month.  The key will be how they respond when one part of their game isn’t working.  Can they find a way to win when they are not at their best?

The best is yet to come?

The Rays, despite their start, are still not at full strength.  By the end of this month the Rays add one of the best set up men in baseball in J.P. Howell to their bullpen.  Just last week, the Rays called up Joaquin Benoit.  The Rays are built to handle the close, one run ballgames, when a bullpen is a strength.

That strength is about to get stronger in less than a month.

The Rays, as of now, have no glaring weakness.  And they will need every ounce of strength they have to hold off the Yankees.

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To use a Joe Maddonism, I’m “digging” John Jaso. You could make the argument that no Rays player has been better over the last ten games than Jaso. Considering the offensive tear this team is on, that’s a pretty strong statement.

Has Jaso been the best Ray? Decide for yourself:

Player A: .342 avg, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 10-8 BB-K ratio

Player B: .286 avg, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8-15 BB-K ratio

Player C: .455 avg, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 9-1 BB-K ratio

Let me add some more numbers for you. Player A just signed a 181 million dollar extension.  Player B was the fifth player taken in the 2007 draft. Minnesota Twin’s Joe Mauer and Baltimore’s Matt Wieters are two of the highest ranking catchers and players in the MLB.  Mauer has the accolades, Wieters has the promise. Who wouldn’t love to have the stats of player A or B?

And how much does that make you love player C?

If you haven’t guessed it by now, player C is Jaso. Not only has Jaso been among the best Rays performers, he’s among the best in baseball in this short stretch.  Despite missing the first two weeks of the season, Jaso leads all A.L. rookies in RBI.  Despite 50 less at bats, he is only one walk behind the ever-patient batting champ Mauer.

And he’s doing it all from the No. 8 position in the lineup.

Mauer and Wieters hit at the top of the order, and yet Jaso has become Mr. RBI for Tampa Bay.  Sure, this could just be a fad or a quick start—it has to be.  No one hits over .400 unless your name rhymes with Ned and ends in Williams.

But there are some reasons to believe he won’t fade off quickly. Jaso had always been known for his bat in the minors. More importantly, he probably has the best eye at the plate of anyone to have come through the Tampa Bay system. Teams have been so worried about the top and middle of the Rays order, lately it has been Pat Burrell, Reid Brignac, and Jaso sending pitchers to the showers early.

Can Jaso keep any of this up? The key will be when teams start pitching differently to Jaso and how quickly he adjusts. But for now, he’s content to be the starting catcher on the hottest team in the majors.

It may be too early to be building shelves for future awards. But it’s never too early to be enjoying the ride.

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